Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, December 25,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
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When the new-look Magic plays host to the Celtics at the Amway Arena in Orlando Christmas afternoon they will take the court looking to avenge a knockout from last year NBA playoffs by Boston. That makes this the perfect stage for the Magic to get its act together, not only in front of the hometown faithful but a national television audience as well. Stay at home with the Disney characters here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Orlando.

Scott RickenbachFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi State @ Hawaii
PICK: Mississippi State
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Sidney is already listed as out for this game due to a suspension. Bailey is listed as questionable for this game due to his potential suspension. This information is as of about 24 hours in front of game time as we prepare this write-up for Christmas Day action. The key here is that the suspension issues are resulting in big time line value for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State, at least in our opinion, is vastly superior to the Warriors and yet the Bulldogs will be the “dogs” in this match-up. That said, there is great line value with a Mississippi State team that already crushed San Diego Thursday and now catches a Hawaii team that is off of a big upset win over Utah.
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After knocking off the Utes Thursday, the Warriors are likely to underestimate the Bulldogs as Mississippi State licks their wounds after all that transpired after their game on Thursday night. The suspension issues may seem like a distraction to the team but watch how this team unites for this game and an SEC team that is considering among the best in their conference pummels a Hawaii team that many project to be among the weakest teams in the WAC. The Warriors are 8-3 this season, while the Bulldogs are 8-4, but watch what happens as Hawaii continues to take on tougher foes after a very easy schedule jump-started their season. Note that the Warriors had lost three of their last five games before yesterday’s upset win. Consider a small play on Mississippi State in Christmas Day College Hoops action.

VEGAS EXPERTSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
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The Cowboys have gone Over in 11 straight games. They are a perfect 10-0 on turf this season. They have allowed an average of worse than 30 points per game the last four weeks. They are also averaging more than 30 points per game the last four weeks. This total is way too low as the oddsmakers still have not adjusted for Dallas games.
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Play on: Over

Terron ChapmanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Play: Chicago Bulls +1.5
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The NBA will kick off it’s annual Christmas tradition of games with a matinee match-up at Madison Square Garden when the Chicago Bulls visit the upstart New York Knicks. The Bulls should be in the spirit of giving as they look to avenge a 120-112 loss to the Knicks at the United Center Nov. 4.
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In that meeting, Bulls center Joakim Noah held Amare Stoudemire to just 5-for-21 from the floor for 14 points. However, the Bulls failed to guard the perimeter as the Knicks connected on 16-of-24 shots from behind the arc. This time around, the Bulls won’t have the services of Noah who is out for 8-10 weeks with a thumb injury. Kurt Thomas will likely get the duty of slowing down Stoudemire who has cooled since a monstrous start to the season. In his last three games, he’s shooting under 45% from the floor to go along with 17 turnovers.
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The Bulls will indeed however have the services of Carlos Boozer who didn’t play in the first meeting and is starting to find his way with his new team. Boozer is coming off a dominant performance against the Wizards in which he had 30 points, five rebounds and seven assists.
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Despite winning nine of their last 10, odds makers aren’t all that impressed with the Bulls who find themselves as a slight underdog Saturday afternoon. They’ve held their last two opponents to just 80 and 76 points respectively and are allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% over the last five games, including 26% from three.
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The Knicks have been impressive thus far this season, but it should be noted they are just 7-7 straight-up in Gotham. The Bulls are 3-1 ATS this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. We’ll look for the Bulls to continue that success as they use their defense to fuel them to another victory. Play on the Chicago Bulls (+) the points for 1 unit.

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Miami Heat +117
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This game means so much more to MIA and they are playing much better than LAL as of late. Lebron has dominated the Lakers winning both regular season matchups last season including the Christmas day game last year. Lakers have been going thru the motions and don't look like the Champions of last year at all. Kobe can't win on his own and right now is not get any help. MIA proves they are elite with straight up win.

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston @ Orlando
PICK: Orlando -2
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This has been the year of the streak thus far in the NBA. The Spurs have had win streaks of 10 and 12 games; the Mavs and Miami also had 12-game win streaks; and Boston is currently on a 14-game tear. Unfortunately, for the Celtics, they will be facing an Orlando team brimming with confidence this afternoon. And that's because the Magic just halted San Antonio's 10-game win streak with a 123-101 destruction of the best team in the NBA. That was the Spurs' first double-digit loss of the season, and it was also the first solid game put together by all of the Magic's newcomers. It won't be the last, as Orlando's talent is very deep: Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Dwight Howard, etc. In their last 14 wins, the Celtics have rarely had to play a tough opponent on the road. Their road wins are largely against the likes of the Clevelands, New Jerseys, and Charlottes of the world. And since 1990, NBA teams off a division win, and 9+ wins overall, are a dismal 41% ATS if they're not favored by 6+ points. Take Orlando to snap Boston's win streak.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Heat vs. Lakers
Play: Under 193
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A rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals, so look for a strong defensive effort. Boston has battled injuries, the biggest of which is playmaking point guard Rajon Rondo (foot), who is still sidelined. They shot 38.8 percent the last game, missed 14 3-pointers, and still extended their winning streak to 14 games with an 84-80 win over the 76ers. Boston is 6-4 under the total their last 10 road games and faces an Orlando team that is still trying to figure things out offensively after making all those trades, on 6-2-1 run under the total. With Shaq and Dwight Howard at the line often, I see a defensive battle in this East showdown, Play the Celtics/Magic Under the total.

Dan BebeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bulls / Knicks Under 205
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The first of a pair of Christmas Day Freebies, leading up to our Top Play in the Lakers/Heat showdown!
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As far as this freebie goes, this is a solid combination of factors that I think leads us to a nice Under.
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First, the game time. This is Christmas morning -- the Bulls players, on the road, are trying to adjust the sleep schedule in one night, and would most certainly rather be at home. The Knicks are at home, and probably spent the morning waking up early, eating candy with the wife and kids, and will be groggy. These early NBA start times always lead to some tired legs in the first half, and because Chicago tends to ramp up defensively as the game wears on, that gives us a nice first and second half combination of low scoring.
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Second, New York's pace has slowed a tad since the monster win streak. The Over against Cleveland only occurred because of Overtime, and Chicago isn't going to want to let New York get into the wild pace they prefer. And even if they do, see point #1 about slow starts in weird game times, especially the early a.m.
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Third, these teams played in Chicago in a game New York won 120-112, with a total of 205. This one sitting at that same number is a good indicator that oddsmakers feel the teams have made adjustments since, and also that the Knicks aren't going to shoot 16-of-24 from long range, as they did in that game.
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The morning NBA free play is on the UNDER in Chicago/NYK, for 1 unit.
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Magic -2
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Christmas Free Play number 2! Yeah, who said Dan Bebe never gave out any gifts?
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Some info:FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando got a key win in their last game, walloping the San Antonio Spurs to snap a losing skid, and also breed some confidence in the new guys.
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Now, clearly, the Orlando defense isn't perfect, but with Dwight Howard in the paint, they can, at least, protect the rim. I'm willing to overlook some of the defensive shortcomings in this one because of one huge note.
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PLAYOFF REVENGE.
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This is the last of the Playoff revenge games occurring in the 2010-2011 season, and I believe many have forgotten how Orlando really picked it up after the first 3 games in last year's playoff series with the C's.
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Orlando got outworked, outhustled, and just outplayed in each of the first 3 games with Boston, but with some new personnel, Orlando doesn't have to rely on Vince Carter to make a big shot. The Magic have a great playmaker off the bench this year now that Arenas is on the squad, and Jason Richardson seems to improve by the game.
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Hedo Turkoglu isn't a tough guy, but he and Brandon Bass have enough length to at least do a marginal job on Boston's pick-and-rolls involving Kevin Garnett, though I imagine Paul Pierce can draw a few fouls on Turk, if he plays the 3 in this one. Jason Richardson is quick and strong, and should be able to cover Ray Allen as well as almost anyone, just from sheer effort.
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Also, Kendrick Perkins was a huge reason Boston was able to stymie the Magic last year, and while Shaq is playing good basketball for his age, he can't keep up with Dwight, and a few quick fouls are going to force Boston to either go to Semi Erden (if he's healthy) or go small with Glen Davis. That is going to give the Magic a nice size edge with the starting unit, and I think the Magic's offensive ability with the second unit should keep those critical lulls to a minimum.
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Boston is one of the best teams in the NBA, and oddsmakers aren't going to mess up a line on this high profile game. If it looks too easy, it probably is.
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Play on the Magic for 1 unit.

Playbook

Dallas over ARIZONA by 3

While Christmas Day finds a couple of interesting NBA games (see page
9), Christmas night finds a meaningless NFL contest. Thankfully, there’s a
silver lining to every cloud as this stocking is stuffed with our INCREDIBLE
STAT OF THE WEEK. Though the ‘Boys are a solid 15-4 SU and ATS in this
series off an ATS loss, we want no part of that 1-16-1 ATS stat found on
Page Two. We’re also not thrilled with their money-burning 1-6 ATS mark
when they line up as favorites this season or their 1-4 ATS log on Saturdays
during the regular season when they arrive off a SU win. We just asked
you to back the Panthers two days ago and now we’re suggesting a play
on the Cardinals. It may be a case of too much eggnog but it just may be
that the Redbirds are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home on Saturdays during the
regular season off a SU loss. It also may be a case of ‘Zona owning a 4-2
SU and 6-0 ATS mark in Last Home Games off a loss since 2000. Whatever
the case, we’ll have another as Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt improves
to 10-3 SU and ATS at home as pick or dog. May all those series losses be
forgotten… an ‘incredible’ take..
　
LA LAKERS over Miami by 11

Miami is scorching but we’re still not convinced that the Heat can handle
teams with tremendous size. The return of Andrew Bynum and Theo Ratliff
to go along with Pau Gasol and Lamar ‘Kardashian’ Odom give the Lakers a
huge advantage underneath. FYI: Rumor has it that Phil Jackson was trying
to add another ‘big’ to the roster just for this game but his fi rst choice,
Khloe, had prior engagements. He may not need him, err her, though, as
the Heat are just 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS in this building, including 0-6 SU
and ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or greater. With Miami
0-2 SU when taking points this year, look for Kobe and company to improve
on their 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS Saturday log. Lay the spot as the defending
champs make a statement on Christmas Day.

Insider Angles

Cowboys / Cardinals Over 45

The Dallas Cowboys are now 4-2 since Jason Garrett took over as head coach, but while the offense has perked up nicely, the defense is actually performing worse than it did under former coach Wade Phillips, and we are looking for another high scoring game vs. the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas night.

Last week’s game was typical for the Cowboys, as they had a seemingly safe 30-14 lead over what had been a previously offensively inept Redskins team, only to then allow the oft maligned Rex Grossman to lead Washington back, as they tied the game at 30-30 before a late field goal allowed Dallas to escape with the 33-30 win.

The six Dallas games under Garret have averaged a combined 59.5 points, where is two touchdowns higher than this total. The offense has been more potent as Garrett has stressed the run more, and that success running the ball has in turn allowed quarterback Jon Kitna to be successful with the pass defenses then loosened up. This strategy should work again here considering that Arizona allowed 177 rushing yards to Carolina of all teams last week.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona freshman quarterback John Skelton playd well while guiding the Cardinals to a 43-13 rout of Denver in his first NFL stat two weeks ago before regressing in his first road start last week. That is not uncommon for young quarterbacks though, so look for him to bounce back well returning home vs. a Dallas pass defense that is allowed a horrific 303.0 passing yards per game on 7.8 yards per attempt over the last three weeks.

Thus, look for Dallas’s pattern of high scoring games under Garrett to continue Saturday night.

CTO

BOSTON 100 - *Orlando 90 RATING - 10

BOSTON over *Orlando (NBA)...For all of the media coverage of how hot Miami is, it’s Boston that has the longest winning streak in the league
and best record in the Eastern Conference. Orlando’s virtual gutting of the team means that Magic HC Stan Van Gundy has to restart “training
camp” and work three new starters and a couple of key rotation players into the mix.

*L.A. LAKERS 105 - Miami 96 RATING - 10

*L.A. LAKERS over Miami (NBA)...The marquee matchup of the season finds both the Lakers and Miami in form. L.A. welcomed back key C
Andrew Bynum, who has been building up his minutes and is coming off scoring 16 points and pulling down 7 rebs. in 18 mins. vs. Toronto. Miami
is on a win streak, but the Lakers have won 8 of last 9, and the defending two-time champs will certainly bring their “A” game for hot Miami.

The Goldsheet

*Dallas 32 - ARIZONA 20—Dallas fans have often outnumbered Arizona
backers in the desert, even when things were going relatively well for the Big
Red, which certainly hasn’t been the case this season, so no reason the
Cowboys won’t have the bulk of support in Glendale once again. Besides, Ken
Whisenhunt is more concerned these days about auditioning Fordham rookie
John Skelton in order to help Arizona decide what to do at QB in the offseason.
Meanwhile, Jason Garrett’s own audition as Jerry Jones’ full-time HC is going
well (Garrett 4-2 SU and 5-1 vs. the line since relieving Wade Phillips).
Cowboys "over" last 11 TY! TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-ARIZONA +5 30-24 (OT)...SR: Dallas 55-29-1)
　

The Gold Sheet Extra
Technical Play of the Week

NFL: DALLAS-ARIZONA "Over" (Dec. 25)...Cowboys now "over" an
amazing 11 straight in 2010; Cards "over" 5-2 at home this season!

Statfox

Dallas at Arizona

Dallas has been a different team under interim coach Jason Garrett, especially
on the off ensive side of the ball. In six games under Garrett, the Boys
have averaged 32.2 points per game while going 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU). Dallas has
its fl aws, particularly in its defensive secondary, but the Cards will have trouble taking advantage with
rookie QB John Skelton leading the passing game.
In fact, the Cards are 0-8 ATS against defenses allowing 235 or more passing
yards per game over the past two seasons. It’s a big spread, but the Cards
have lost three of their past four home games by 13 points or more.

Dallas -6

NC Power Plays

(DAL #3 vs ARZ #11, ARZ #32 vs DAL #31) - Its not a surprise that ARZ struggled on the road after blowing out DEN at home LW with just 11 FD’s & 43 (2.5) rush yds. They now return home vs a DAL team that is out to win to make fans want to buy tickets for 2011. DAL gave up 4 TD’s to Grossman LW but they also logged 17 plays behind the LOS along with 2 Int & a FF. PP gives DAL an 86 yd edge here in a very winnable game & we’ll take the road team & the Over here.

3* COWBOYS/CARDINALS: OVER
1* COWBOYS 31 CARDINALS 22