John Ryan
Florida State at Baylor
Prediction: Florida St
5* graded play on Florida State as they take on Baylor in College Hoops action set to start at 7:30 EST Christmas Night. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. FSU head coach Hamilton is a solid Hamilton is 81-56 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1997; 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game as the coach of FSU. I like FSU?s perimeter defense in this game and I don?[t see (nor does the model predict) that Baylor will not shoot better than 30% from beyond the arc. Baylor is just 1-8 ATS when hitting less than 30% of their 3-point shots spanning the past three seasons. Take FSU.
Tom Freese
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Miami is 22-9 straight up this year. The Heat are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Heat are 2-6 ATS their last 8 Saturday games and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as road underdogs. The Lakers are 21-8 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games off a loss of more than 10 points. Kobe and company are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games as favorites and they are 4-1 ATS their last games overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +1.38 over L.A. LAKERS
The media eats this stuff up. This is a fabulous game for sure but that’s all it is. It’s one game worth watching but it’s only worth one game in the standings and while both teams of course want to win, it measures nothing. It’s a television-manufactured event and the ratings will be off the charts. What we do know is that the Heat is on fire and D-Wade will go today. The Lakers have had the NBA’s easiest schedule to date and that’s a fact. L.A. has played just two teams above .500 in the past month, Chicago and Utah, covering 14 games and lost them both. They also dropped four in a row recently and thus, its 21-8 record is not as impressive as it appears. The Heat are the NBA’s hunted. The opposition wants to beat them more than they want to beat the Lakers and Miami’s schedule has been a lot tougher. Throw in the adjustment factor and the Heats record of 22-9 is very impressive. The Heat have also won eight straight on the road and that includes a 13-point win in Utah. So, yeah, the Lakers will be jacked up and they can win this game for sure. However, the Heat are playing better, they can beat anyone including the Lakers and all the value here is on them. Play: Miami +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.10 over NEW YORK
Not many could have foreseen the Knicks jumping out to a 17-12 record. The most amazing part of that record is that they’re 10-5 on the road and just 7-7 at home. This is certainly a contrast of styles, as the Bulls are defense first while the Knicks have never seen a shot they didn’t like and they love to launch three-pointers like its life or death. In big games, and this one qualifies, defense wins out and unlike previous Bulls teams in the past few years, this one can score points. Eight of the Bills last nine opponents have been held to under 93 points with six of those nine being held to under 85 points. Six of the last eight Knicks opponents have scored 109 or more. That’s about 25 points a game more and that’s very significant. When you give up so many points it puts a lot of pressure on the offense and that’s probably why the Knicks struggle more at home. Those missed three’s lead to easy fast-break points and unlike previous Bulls teams in the past few years, this one can score points in bunches. The Bulls have the two most dominant players on the floor in Carlos Boozer and Derek Rose and even without Joakim Noah the Bulls are the much better squad. The Knicks are overvalued because of their great start but in a big game such as this, we would not trust a Mike D’Antoni coached team because he does not care about defense and never has. Play: Chicago +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
OKLAHOMA CITY –6½ over Denver
The Thunder always has trouble with the Nuggets but that’s when Carmelo Anthony is in the line-up. Melo will miss this game due to the tragic death of his sister and that has to have a negative effect on the whole team. Not only because of the death but the timing too, as nobody should have to grieve someone so young at this time of year. State of mind is everything in sports and the Thunder will no doubt be in a much better one in front of the loudest crowd in the NBA. The Nuggets have had trouble on the road all season long with just a 4-9 record and things get 10 times tougher in Oklahoma City with Melo out. The Nuggets are dealing with a whole lot of other issues too and while the talent is there, the desire has not been on many occasions this season and this one reeks of that lack of desire. Ok City is 20-10 this season and they really have a chance to stick it to a team that usually beats them. This one is all about the situation and it heavily favors the host. Play: Oklahoma City –6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Terron Chapman
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Play: Chicago Bulls +1.5
The NBA will kick off it’s annual Christmas tradition of games with a matinee match-up at Madison Square Garden when the Chicago Bulls visit the upstart New York Knicks. The Bulls should be in the spirit of giving as they look to avenge a 120-112 loss to the Knicks at the United Center Nov. 4.
In that meeting, Bulls center Joakim Noah held Amare Stoudemire to just 5-for-21 from the floor for 14 points. However, the Bulls failed to guard the perimeter as the Knicks connected on 16-of-24 shots from behind the arc. This time around, the Bulls won’t have the services of Noah who is out for 8-10 weeks with a thumb injury. Kurt Thomas will likely get the duty of slowing down Stoudemire who has cooled since a monstrous start to the season. In his last three games, he’s shooting under 45% from the floor to go along with 17 turnovers.
The Bulls will indeed however have the services of Carlos Boozer who didn’t play in the first meeting and is starting to find his way with his new team. Boozer is coming off a dominant performance against the Wizards in which he had 30 points, five rebounds and seven assists.
Despite winning nine of their last 10, odds makers aren’t all that impressed with the Bulls who find themselves as a slight underdog Saturday afternoon. They’ve held their last two opponents to just 80 and 76 points respectively and are allowing opponents to shoot 40.5% over the last five games, including 26% from three.
The Knicks have been impressive thus far this season, but it should be noted they are just 7-7 straight-up in Gotham. The Bulls are 3-1 ATS this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. We’ll look for the Bulls to continue that success as they use their defense to fuel them to another victory. Play on the Chicago Bulls (+) the points for 1 unit.
Wunderdog Sports
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -2
The Knicks are relevant again which is a good thing for the NBA. The Garden hasn't had a lot to cheer for in years so under the national spotlight, this should be the most racous this crowd has been in a long time. I believe the players will be pumped too. That usually results in improved defense which is what this team needs because they can certainly score, at 108 per game. The Bulls are a very good team but on the road they are barely outscoring their foes, only getting to 97 points per game on average. I think they will struggle to keep up here. Even before they were good, the Knicks somehow got up vs. good teams. They are 48-32 ATS the past three seasons vs. winning teams including 14-4 ATS vs. teams at .600 to .700 since last season. In fact, under D'Antoni, the Knicks are 25-7 ATS vs. teams in that win range. They are also able to carry momentum this season, having gone 13-3 ATS after a win. I like New York to win and cover here.
Tom Stryker
Boston @ Orlando
PICK: Orlando -2
Boston dismissed Orlando in the 2010 NBA Playoffs and that fact will keep the Magic motivated for this revenge battle.
The addition of Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson make Orlando a much more athletic club and they'll be looking to send the Celtics a little statement this afternoon. Technically speaking, this is a tremendous spot for head coach Stan Van Gundy's troops. At home, the Magic have been tough to beat posting a solid 111-36 SU and 82-58-7 ATS record. In this role priced competitively as an underdog or a favorite of -6 or less, the Magic improve to a juicy 28-15-2 ATS including 27-12-2 ATS if they're rested.
Knocking off the Shamrocks won't be an easy task. Boston has quietly ripped off 14 consecutive wins and head coach Doc Rivers has his troops playing at an extremely high level. Fortunately, this isn't one of the Celtics best technical spots. As a conference road underdog taking the floor with three or more days rest, Boston is a soft 25-38-2 ATS provided it is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .570. If this is a non-division game, this team trend slips to a woeful 15-28-2 ATS!
The new-look Magic looked good in their 22-points win over San Antonio on Thursday. Rest assured, Coach Van Gundy's kids will be completely focused on stopping this Celtics streak! Take Orlando.
DAVID CHAN
Miami @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Miami
The Miami Heat are 13-1 in their last 14 games. Yet they are underdogs for only the third time this season.
The Los Angeles Lakers are the two-time defending world champs and are at home. But the Lakers' 21-8 mark isn't so impressive considering they've played by far the easiest schedule in the league.
The Lakers have played 12 of their last 13 games versus foes with a losing record. Los Angeles is just 8-5 in these contests, the last being a shocking 19-point home loss to Milwaukee this past Tuesday as 12-point home favorites.
Maybe the Lakers will regroup. But I have to take points with a red-hot Heat team finally living up to their promise and which has won eight straight on the road going 7-1 ATS in those eight matchups.
Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are a wash, but the Lakers are thin in the frontcourt right now and haven't been getting any production at point guard. Right now the Heat are the better team.
Getting points with the better team is the way to go.
Info Plays
3* Pick: Bulls/Knicks OVER 206
Reasons why Bulls/Knicks will go OVER:
1) These two teams combined for 132 points in their first matchup of the season. Chicago didn't have Boozer and the Knicks weren't playing nearly as good.
2)The Knicks have no one that can stop Derrick Rose, and with Noah out for Chicago, Stoudemire should have a huge game. The Knicks scored 120 on Chicago with Stoudemire scoring just 15 points.
3)Knicks head coach D'Antoni is 124-92 OVER after a non-conference game in all games he has coached since 1996, and is 128-92 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game in all games he has coached since 1996.
Jack Jones
Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 213
This game will go well UNDER the number Saturday. The Denver Nuggets will likely be playing without Carmelo Anthony who is listed as doubtful due to personal reasons. Anthony is perhaps the best pure scorer in the league today and without him they aren't nearly as explosive offensively. Denver will have to rely on defense to keep them in this game against the Oklahoma City Thunder Saturday. The Thunder and their opponents are combining to score an average of 105.0 PPG this season, while the Nuggets and their opponents are combining to score an average of 106.9 PPG on the road this year.
As you can see with their averages, there's clearly some value on the UNDER in this contest. Looking at recent meeting, that is the case as well. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings in this series with combined scores of 192, 209, 185 and 195 points, respectively. The UNDER is 10-3 in Denver's last 13 road games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 39-18 in Nuggets last 57 games as a road underdog. Denver is 14-2 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER Saturday.
STAN LISOWSKI
OKLAHOMA CITY
The Thunder have bounced back off of losses fairly well this season, standing 8-1 straight up and 6-3 ATS. In this series, the home team is 7-3 outright, while OK City has covered 7 of the 10 meetings. Denver is 4-9 straight up on the road and are going to be missing Anthony again this evening. The Nuggets have the league’s third worst defense while the Thunder put up 105 points per game.
Ray Monohan
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -1½
The Knicks (17-12, 19-9-1 ATS) ended a three-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 112-98 victory over Oklahoma City. New York also ended a two-game losing streak against the spread, as it covered the one-point spread. NY are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Neither team has much of a bench right now, but at least New York has been dealing with the problem all season. This is a new issue for the Bulls, who will have trouble slowing Stoudemire without Noah (and possibly Gibson). Last time out for these two clubs back on November 4, the Bulls allowed the Knicks to shoot 16-of-24 from 3-point range in a 120-112 loss. Noah was around for that one and managed to hold Stoudemire to 5-of-21 from the floor, but Toney Douglas drained five 3-pointers and finished with 30 points off the bench. Look for more of the same on Christmas Day folks. The Knicks will outgun Chicago and give their fans a nice Xmas present.
Rob Vinciletti
Nuggets vs. Thunder
Play: Over 213
This figures to be an up tempo game with 2 high powered teams. Denver has played over 8 of 12 times vs teams who allow 99 or more points per game. The Thunder have gone over 14 of 17 times as a home favorite from 6.5 to -9, including all 6 times this season. In division play they have flown over 5 of 6 times. They come in off a double digit loss here tonight and have played over all 4 times when losing by 10 or more. Finally when the posted total is 210 or more in their home games they again went over all 4 times. Look for this one to go over as well.
Joel Tyson
Dallas at ARIZONA
Free play for Christmas is to play the Over in the Dallas-Arizona contest.
I know the Cardinals are taking a look at rookie QB John Skelton, but the way the Dallas defense has been allowing points - 30 or more in 4 straight! - perhaps Skelton will be able to put up some positive numbers as well.
Dallas comes into this game with 11 straight Overs under their belt, and with that being the case it sure makes it hard to even think about the possibility of a low-scoring game this evening.
Both teams will be watching this year's playoffs, so with nothing to lose, look for more chances to be taken, more points to be scored, and the Over to come through in a Dallas game for the 12th straight time.
Play it high in Glendale tonight!
4♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Boston (+2) at ORLANDO
For your Christmas Day comp play selection, take the streaking Boston Celtics plus the basket at Orlando.
I know Orlando is out for revenge, as Boston eliminated them from the postseason last May, but this Magic team just aquired 3 new players and they will need a little time to find their rhythm.
Sure, the Magic did destroy the Spurs the other night, but they had lost 8 of their previous 9 games prior to that impressive step-up win.
Boston has only won 14 in a row, and 17 of their last 19 games straight up. The Celtics are also 9-3 against the spread their last 12 on the highway.
The streak is going to come to an end, just not today.
Take the C's.
2♦ BOSTON
Scott Delaney
Boston (+2) at ORLANDO
For your complimentary winner, I told you two nights back that Orlando would get the best of the Spurs.
Now I am telling you the Celtics will roll over the Magic.
Orlando's reconstruction project might end up working down the road, but to try to swing something over the holidays, and think it'll work when facing the Eastern Conference's current No. 1 seed is another story.
Though the Magic looked dominating in knocking off the NBA's No. 1 seed in San Antonio, the Spurs were also coming in a bit weary and unassuming. The Magic were in the right spot for an upset win.
But the Celtics saunter in having won 14 straight games to move atop the Eastern Conference standings. And that's while being dinged up.
The betting numbers certainly agree with me...
Boston is on winning ATS streaks of 6-0 as an underdog, 9-1 on two days rest, 6-1 on Saturdays, 14-3 versus the Southeast Division and 9-3 on the road.
On the other hand, the Magic are on ATS slides of 5-11 after a straight-up win, 2-5 against teams that win on the road, 1-4 asthehome chalk, 0-7 on Saturdays, 0-5 versus the Atlantic Division and 2-8 overall.
1♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
Miami (+3) at LOS ANGELES
By June, the two-time defending world champion Lakers might be back in peak form. Right now, though, the Heat are the team worth playing having won 13 of their last 14 covering 10 of the 14. The Heat have won all but three of these games by 10 or more points.
The Heat have won their last eight straight road contests covering seven of them. It took 16 games, but LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are in sync with one another and their teammates.
The Heat can beat any team when properly motivated and they certainly will be for this marquee nationally televised matchup.
The Lakers are 21-8, which isn't bad being the fifth-best record in the NBA until you realize they've played the easiest schedule in the league by far. Los Angeles just went 8-5 with 12 of these 13 games coming against opponents under .500.
The Lakers were thoroughly embarrassed by Milwaukee in their last game, losing 98-79 as 12-point home favorites this past Tuesday. The short-handed Bucks were using Keyon Dooling and Earl Boykins as their point guards with Brandon Jennings out.
Point guard is a severe weakness for the Lakers right now. Starting point guard Derek Fisher is averaging 5.2 points and 2.2 assists in his last five games.
Aside from Andrew Bynum, the Lakers have been remarkably injury free. So injuries can't be used as an excuse. Of course the Lakers have plenty of time to regroup, but for this matchup the Heat are the team to ride.
1♦ MIAMI
Michael Cannon
Miami at LA LAKERS (-2')
For your Christmas free play take the Lakers as the small home chalk over the Heat.
You have to think the Lakers are going to be eager for this game on two counts. One, it gives the champs an opportunity to go out and deliver a blow to a Miami team that many have anointed as the next champion after the signing of LeBron James and Chris Bosh.
Two, it’s a chance for the Lakers to bounce back after Tuesday’s humiliating, 19-point loss at Milwaukee.
That loss may have been because the Lakers were looking ahead to today’s matchup and the fact it was the final game of a long road trip.
Either way, I expect the Lakers to rise up to the challenge and deliver at home.
You know Kobe Bryant is going to bring his ‘A’ game. That’s a given. His determination is strong enough that it should permeate down through the rest of the roster today and translate into a Laker win.
Miami could be without Dwyane Wade, who is nursing a sore knee.
Take the Lakers as the small home chalk for the win and cover.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Chris Jordan
Miami at LOS ANGELES (-3)
It's the showdown everyone's been waiting on...
The question is, will it be a preview of the NBA Finals.
I'm sure the Celtics will have something to say about, while hoping to make their own statement in Orlando today. But for now, let's talk about the matchup at hand.
The celebrities will all be on hand, led by Jack Nicholson, while the biggest star of them all will be Kobe Bryant.
Enough is enough with this inconsistency by the two-time defending champion Lakers, who might be the only team in the NBA that can turn it off and on with the flip of a switch.
And this afternoon, the Lakers will look every part of the two-time defending champs, led by the best player in the world, not to mention a supporting cast that stretches deep onto the bench.
This is where Kobe and Phil thrive, against the upper echelon of the league, and in situations where it appears things are starting to unravel.
While Miami is heating up with LeBron, Wade and Bosh, I'm quite comfy with the seasoned lineup that includes Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher and Lamar Odom, guys who have helped make this a championship team.
Remember, the Lakers have won two straight and Kobe has six rings. LeBron is still out to get his first. The Lakers, as a whole, are the better team and know how to step up to the level of competition to win big basketball games.
The Lakers have been off long enough to let the 19-point thumping by Milwaukee settle in, and they'll be pissed off enough to take it out on the Heat today.
Lay the field goal in this one, as the Lakers roll.
5♦ LOS ANGELES
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at OKLAHOMA CITY (-6')
For my comp winner, Denver takes on the red-hot Thunder tonight in Oklahoma City without superstar forward Carmelo Anthony, who will be missing his second straight game after the death of his sister. This takes a lot of scoring punch away from the Nuggets and gives Oklahoma City a big advantage. I’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this one.
Oklahoma City has won six of its last eight but did fall in New York on Wednesday, losing 112-98 as a one-point underdog. In this series with the Nuggets, Denver has dominated with Anthony in the lineup, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings with him averaging just shy of 30 points per game. This is the second time the Thunder will face Denver without Anthony and it was their only win against the Nuggets last year.
Thunder star Kevin Durant has scored 30 points or more in each of his last five home games against Denver and this season they are 8-2 when he reaches the 30-point mark. Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS against Denver the last five times they’ve met in the Thunder’s house.
The Nuggets are on ATS skids of 6-16-2 on the road, 5-24-5 after a spread-cover, 5-12-1 overall and 2-6 against Northwest Division squads. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on ATS surges of 37-15 after a loss, 5-1 as a favorite, 6-1 on Saturdays and 4-1 against division rivals.
I’ll lay the points and go with the young legs of Oklahoma City. Play the Thunder.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chuck O'Brien
Denver at OKLAHOMA CITY (-6')
For today’s complimentary NBA selection, take the Thunder as a home favorite against Denver.
The Nuggets play their second straight game without superstar Carmelo Anthony, who has left the team to be with his family following the death of his sister. And although Denver gave the NBA’s best team (San Antonio) a battle for three quarters on Wednesday, ‘Melo’s absence was clearly felt in crunch time as the Nuggets got outscored 29-14 in the fourth quarter and lost 109-103 (covering the eight-point number).
As it is, with or without Carmelo, Denver has followed up a seven-game winning streak by losing five of its last seven, including four of five on the road (George Karl’s club is just 4-9 as a visitor this season). Although the Nuggets cashed in Wednesday’s loss in San Antonio, they’re just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. And the kicker? We’re 27 games into the season Denver has yet to cash in back-to-back contests! Even worse, they’re 5-24-5 ATS in their last 34 games when coming off a spread-cover.
Oklahoma City has been idle since Wednesday’s 112-98 road loss to the Knicks (as a one-point underdog), but Kevin Durant and Co. are still 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games; they’ve won 15 of 21 overall and five of six at home; and the SU winner has cashed in each of their last nine games.
Admittedly, the Nuggets have owned this rivalry, winning seven of the last eight meetings since the start of the 2008-2009 season. But that was with Anthony on the court (and even then, the Thunder have covered in seven of the last nine meetings).
Oklahoma City is on ATS upticks of 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Northwest Division, 37-15 after a loss and 10-4 following a double-digit defeat. Denver is 6-16-2 ATS in its last 24 roadies dating to last season and 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the Northwest Division.
The Chuckster calls for a tight contest for three quarters before the Thunder break away in the fourth quarter and roll to a double-digit victory
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Craig Davis
Denver at OKLAHOMA CITY (-6')
Now onto Saturday's comp play as I look to follow winners on Georgetown Thursday and Hawaii-Tulsa Over on Friday with a play on the OKC Thunder over the Denver Nuggets tonight.
Although Denver has historically owned this series with the Thunder, I did witness OKC getting a blowout win over Denver at home last year, 101-84, and that was with Carmelo Anthony in the Denver lineup.
Unfortunately for Anthony and his family, he won't be in attendance tonight in Oklahoma City as he recently suffered the tragic death of his sister, Michelle, and he'll be attending her funeral.
I hate to take advantage of a tragedy, but this line is just too good to pass up. When Vegas doesn't believe the absence of a player will affect the game, they don't move the line, players jump on the favorite, and the underdog comes through.
Obviously Vegas believes the loss of Anthony is pretty major because they have bumped the Thunder up to a 6 1/2- to 7-point home favorite, and that's simply not normal. If 'Melo was playing tonight, OKC would be a two-point favorite and I'd still consider taking them.
OKC packs the house still because the fans in Oklahoma City look at this team like a novelty. They tend to play their best games at home against the tougher competition because they feed off the crowd like no team I've seen in three years.
Kevin Durant is healthy again and scoring nearly 30 points per game while Russell Westbrook is doing a good job of splitting defensive duties, passing duties and scoring duties and might actually be this team's MVP.
Denver doesn't stop people from scoring and the Thunder, fresh off a loss in New York, are chomping at the bit to get back on the floor and make someone pay.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
Florida State vs. Baylor (-3) from Honolulu, HI
Both teams played poorly Thursday, as their star players struggled in the 1st halves of their respective contests. However, I like Baylor to bounce back here against a Florida State team that is already 0-2 against ranked teams this season. Make it 0-3 after tonight.
The big difference between these two teams? Offense. The Bears have balance and a player who can creat his own shot in LaceDarius Dunn. The Seminoles have Chris Singleton and that's it, and the problem with Singleton is he's not capable of creating his own shot. Therefore, the Noles do a lot of standing around on offense, relying on their excellent defense to keep the game close. That will not work against a motivated Baylor team, that has a multitude of weapons.
One other factor to consider is the possible absence of Xavier Gibson, who left the Butler game with an apparent knee injury. The 6'11 forward is a key cog in the Seminoles defense, and they'll miss him against Baylor's talented young center Perry Jones. He may play (its unclear at this point), but even at less than 100%, it's a factor to consider.
Long story short, the Seminoles are overrated, and Baylor will prove my point tonight. Granted, I still see a relatively close game throughout, so don't expect a blowout. But in the end, the Seminoles can only rely on their defense so much... Eventually they have to score points, and that's where they'll lose this game. Lay it with Baylor over Florida State Saturday.
3♦ BAYLOR