Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, December 26, 2009

Hollywood Sports

Boston College at USC
Prediction: USC

After USC's 21-17 loss to Arizona to end the season, it may appear that the Trojans have packed it in for this year. Star running back Joe McKnight will not travel to the game as he is dealing with a possible NCAA violation regarding his use of an SUV. Three other players have been ruled academically ineligible. How motivated will this USC team be for this lesser bowl game after being accustomed to playing in BCS bowls? Nonetheless, coach Pete Carroll expects an outstanding effort from his team: ?Our players like to work out, they love to play games ... I can guarantee you that they?re going to play this game like it?s the national championship game.? USC typically bounces back from losses in the Pete Carroll era as they have covered in thirteen of their last eighteen games after a loss. Expect Carroll to use this game as a springboard for next season -- meaning he will use this opportunity to let his younger players play. And these players will be very motivated to prove themselves for next season. USC remains loaded with talent and should overwhelm an overachieving Boston College team. The Eagles ended their season by only defeating a woeful 2-10 Maryland team by just two points. Behind first-year quarterback Dave Shinskie, BC scores only 14 PPG away from home. And while the offense depends on running back Montel Harris, the Eagles rush for only 85.2 YPG away from home. While USC was shredded by the strong offenses of Oregon and Stanford, the Trojans defense performs much better against less dynamic offenses like that of Boston College. USC has covered fifteen of their last twenty games when favored by 3.5-10 points. The Trojans will be motivated to move on from this year's disappointing season. It begins on Saturday. Lay the points with USC.

ALEX SMART

Boston College @ USC
PICK: Boston College +8

Certainly taking a huge chance here fading Pete Carroll and his USC Trojans who have been nothing short of $$$ in the bowl season of late going 4-1 SU & ATS the L/5 years. However, this is unchartered territory for the mighty Trojans who find themselves out of a BCS Bowl for the first time in 7 years. If their uninspiring home loss to Arizona wasn’t enough to send off SOS signals about this group wanting to close the book on the 2009-10 season, this game against BC will close the case. I just don’t see USC playing this one with the same kind of tenacity and vigor we’ve seen them execute in years past.

On the flipside, we get to back a BC outfit that’s experienced major success in the bowls regardless of who’s been leading them. The Eagles are 8-2 SU their L/10 bowls, and they come into this one off a tough loss to Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl a year ago. BC isn’t the toughest of teams to game plan for as QB Shinskie isn’t a downfield threat, but RB Montel Harris is very elusive and quick. If the O-line is able to contain the Trojans, Harris could have another big day. Defensively, the Eagles play with a quick motor and never give up mentality. On heart alone, they should be the favorites in this spot.

With all the extracurricular activity surrounding the USC program this season (freak accidents, suspensions, purchased SUV’s) and the fact that they didn’t live up to expectations, I just don’t see the Trojans being motivated in this spot. BC brings it on every play; that’s something I can’t and won’t say about USC in 2009. Next year might be a different story, but I think USC wanted this season over with yesterday. Look for the Eagles to challenge throughout and come within this lofty spread.

Pete Angelo

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh

Good ol' ACC-Big East clash takes place Saturday, and I'm willing to bet the Over is going to come in long before this thing ends.

I know why the number is a bit low, that being the Heels don't boast much of an offense but they have a tremendous defense; but that doesn't stop me when we're talking about a Pitt team that is looking to erase the painful memory of losing its last two games of the season - to Big East rivals West Virginia and Cincinnati.

And with the 16th-best scoring offense in the league, you better believe the Panthers will be looking to set the tone early by dazzling UNC's defense and getting defensive coordinator Everett Withers to make adjustments mid-first half.

The Panthers have a balanced game, and the only way for the Heels to stay in this one is to play their best offensive game of the year.

It's put some points up when it had to, and despite scoring a meager 24.33 points per game for the year, North Carolina averaged better than 30 points per game in its last three contests.

Trust me, the Panthers will ignite the Heels and this will turn into quite the barn burner. Play it high.

2♦ OVER

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Over 234

Two of the top 3 teams in the NBA in scoring clash here. Golden State is on a 3-2 run over the total, but they've lost all 5 games because they don't play any defense. They allow a whopping 49% shooting by opponents, dead last in the league. And Phoenix comes to town shooting over 49% and averaging 108 ppg, both tops in the NBA. The Warriors have up 124 points in the only meeting with the Suns this season, a loss, so they will run at the Suns to try and keep pace, especially with Golden State rested and Phoenix in the second of a back to back spot having played last night. Play the Suns/Warriors Over the total.

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
(at Detroit)

Ohio (9-4 SU and ATS) vs. Marshall (6-6, 6-5 ATS)

Ohio, back in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, makes the short trek to Ford Field to take on the Thundering Herd, who reached a bowl game for the first time since 2004.

The Bobcats went on a 7-1 SU tear (6-2 ATS) to win the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, earning a date with Central Michigan in the Dec. 4 conference title game. In that meeting, also held in Detroit, the Bobcats lost 20-10 to halt a four-game winning streak, but they covered as a hefty 13½-point underdog to finish the regular season on ATS surges of 9-2 and 4-0. Ohio, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich is seeking its first 10-win season since 1968

Marshall stumbled to the finish line in Conference USA, losing three of its last four games SU and ATS, including a 52-21 beatdown as a two-point road pup against Texas-El Paso on Nov. 28 to cap the regular season. The Herd failed to cover in their last three games, following a 6-1 ATS stretch (4-3 SU). Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter will serve as the head coach in this contest, taking over for Mark Snyder, who was pressured to resign after the season-ending loss at UTEP.

While Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004, the Bobcats were last in the postseason in 2006, when they fell in the GMAC Bowl to Southern Miss (Conference USA) 28-7 as a six-point underdog.

With Marshall being a former MAC member, these teams used to meet annually. The Thundering Herd won four of the last five meetings, most recently winning 16-13 in October 2005, but Ohio went 4-1 ATS, including cashing a 10-point home ‘dog in that 2004 clash. Going back further, Marshall has won eight of the last nine SU against Ohio, but has cashed just four times in that stretch.

The Bobcats averaged 25.4 points and 324.5 yards per game, with 204.8 ypg coming through the air on the arm of QB Theo Scott, who finished with 2,258 passing yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. Ohio’s defense gave up just 21.3 ppg and 354.2 ypg, but 150.9 rushing ypg.

The Thundering Herd averaged 21.8 points and 355.3 ypg (216.5 passing, 138.8 rushing), but they gave up more on both counts, allowing 24.9 points and 392.5 yards per outing. QB Brian Anderson paced Marshall’s offense, throwing for 2,561 yards, but his 14 TDs were offset by 13 INTs.

Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Bobcats are on pointspread upswings of 8-1-1 following a spread-cover and 7-2 outside the MAC. Marshall is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the MAC, but the Herd sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 in December and 5-1 in bowl games.

Ohio is on “under” runs of 5-1 as a favorite and 9-4 in non-conference contests, and the under is on a bundle of tears for Marshall, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 with the Herd as an underdog, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 outside Conference USA, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
(at Charlotte, N.C.)

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. (17) Pittsburgh (9-3, 7-4 ATS)

The Panthers, who narrowly missed out on winning the Big East championship and earning a BCS bowl bid, instead drop down to a second-tier contest when they head to Bank of America Stadium to face North Carolina, which ostensibly will be playing a home game.

Pittsburgh went on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) to surge into BCS contention, then lost its last two games by a total of four points (1-1 ATS). In fact, the Panthers’ three defeats were by a total of 11 points. In the season finale against Cincinnati on Dec. 5, with the Big East title and BCS berth on the line, the Panthers raced out to a 31-10 second-quarter lead, but they couldn’t hold off a furious Bearcats rally, losing 45-44 on a TD pass in the waning seconds. Still, Pitt cashed as a 1½-point home pup, ending a two-game ATS hiccup.

North Carolina finished the regular season on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, including outright wins from the underdog role at Virginia Tech, against Miami at home and at Boston College. However, the Tar Heels fell to in-state rival North Carolina State in the Nov. 28 finale 28-27 as a 5½-point road chalk, but they still reached the postseason for a second straight year, after a three-year bowl hiatus.

The Panthers were dealt a 3-0 loss as a one-point pup in a yawner of a Sun Bowl last year, and they’ve failed to cash in their last four postseason games. Meanwhile, this is the Tar Heels’ second straight trip to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, having lost to West Virginia last year 31-30 as a two-point underdog. UNC is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven postseason appearances.

These teams met twice in three seasons from 1998-2000, but they haven’t gotten together since. North Carolina took both those matchups SU and ATS, including a 20-17 road victory getting seven points in November 2000. In fact, the Tar Heels have cashed in each of five all-time lined clashes between these schools.

Freshman RB Dion Lewis racked up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.5 ypc for a potent Pitt rushing attack that put up 184.6 ypg among its 399.9 total ypg. Wideout Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches, 1,080 yards, 20 ypc, 8 TDs) also had a big year. The Panthers averaged 33.2 ppg, while the defense gave up 20 points and 323.9 total yards per game and also led the nation in sacks. Pitt’s defense yielded more than 22 points just three times all year..

Carolina had one of the nation’s least productive offenses, averaging just 311.3 ypg (107th out of 120 teams) while putting up 24.3 ppg, scoring more than 21 points just five times against Division I-A competition. However, the Tar Heels countered the sluggish offense by fielding the sixth-best total defense (267.8 ypg), which surrendered just 16.9 ppg.

Pitt is in ATS ruts of 3-8 as a favorite of three points or less and 2-5 against ACC opposition. But they are also on a 4-0 ATS run following a SU loss and are on additional spread-covering streaks of 4-1 in December and 7-3 as a chalk.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a non-cover, 12-3 catching three points or less and 5-2 outside the ACC.

The under has hit in six of Pitt’s last eight outings overall (5-1 in its last six as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five against the ACC and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk of three points or less. North Carolina is on “over” spurts of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 with the Heels a ‘dog and 8-3 against Big East foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER

EMERALD BOWL
(at San Francisco)

Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern Cal (8-4, 3-9 ATS)

The Trojans, perennial BCS contenders who completely fell apart this season, try to end things on a high note when they head up the Pacific Coast to AT&T Park to face Boston College.

Southern Cal was dealt an early-season upset loss at Washington, then dropped three of its last five games (1-4 ATS), ending a seven-year run in which it either won or shared the Pac-10 title. Two of those final three losses were stunning blowouts – a 47-20 setback at Oregon as a three-point road chalk, followed two weeks later by a 55-21 home wipeout to Stanford as an 11½-point favorite. The Trojans finished the regular season Dec. 5 with a 21-17 loss to Arizona as a seven-point home choice.

Boston College finished the year on a 4-2 SU surge to get bowl-eligible, capped by a 19-17 win at Maryland on Nov. 28, though it fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. That marked the third straight ATS setback for the Eagles, following a 5-1 ATS run. BC’s offense was less than impressive over the final three games (2-1 SU), getting held to 19 points or less in all three and totaling just 46 points (15.3 ppg).

USC crushed Penn State 38-24 in last year’s Rose Bowl, covering as a 9½-point favorite in improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games (3-0 SU and ATS last three). The Eagles are in a bowl game for the 11th consecutive year, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in the previous 10 postseason appearances. However, B.C. has failed to cash in its last three bowl outings (2-1 SU).

USC scored 26.7 points and averaged 385.1 yards per contest with a fairly balanced attack (211.7 ypg passing, 173.4 ypg rushing). Defensively, the Trojans surrendered 20.4 points and 342.8 yards per outing (211.8 passing, 131 rushing). However, after giving up a total of just 43 points in the first five games, USC got torched for 28.9 ppg over its final seven contests, yielding 27 points or more four times.

BC ranked just 97th in the nation in total offense 324.9 ypg, and that translated into 25.8 ppg. Sophomore RB Montel Harris was the offensive star, rushing for 1,357 yards (4.8 ypc) and 13 TDs. The Eagles’ defense surrendered just 19.4 ppg and 318.4 ypg.

These teams haven’t met in 21 years, after squaring off in a home-and-home series in 1987 and 1988. USC won both contests (1-1 ATS), including a 34-7 road blowout in 1988 as a 5½-point chalk.

The Trojans are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 0-4 in December, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a non-cover. However, they are on ATS rolls of 5-1 as a bowl chalk, 15-5 laying 3½ to 10 points in any game, 24-8 outside the Pac-10 and 13-5 following a SU loss.

The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 16-7 as a pup, 4-0 as a bowl ‘dog, 6-1 in non-conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. But Boston College is in the midst of ATS skids of 0-5 in December and 1-5 at neutral sites.

Southern Cal is on “under” tears of 24-11-1 overall, 28-13-1 as a favorite, 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 in December, and the under for Boston College is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0 outside the ACC and 4-1 on neutral fields. However, the total has gone high in USC’s last five bowl games overall and its last four as a postseason chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL

SPORTS WAGERS

Ohio –3 over Marshall

Well, if momentum means anything at all then one would have to give the Bobcats a significant edge here. Ohio went on a significant run to end the season, posting a 7-1 mark in its final eight games while the Thundering Herd lost four of its last six games and that includes a rather disturbing 52-21 loss to close out the season against UTEP. What’s also unappealing about the Thundering Herd is its pedestrian offense that struggles miserably to score points. Ion fact, they scored 21 or less in seven of its 10 games and a month layoff is unlikely to help what ails them. Aside from being whipped by Va Tech, Marshall was also crushed by both West Virginia and Tulane. The Herd went 4-4 in the conference and just 6-6 overall. It’s also worth noting that despite not allowing a ton of points the Thundering Herd defense was shaky at best. They were completely shredded in terms of yards allowed (almost 400 yards per game) and were fortunate to not allow about another 10 points against per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have never won a Bowl game in three previous attempts. They have to know this is a great chance to do so and there’s no excuse for not pulling it out. They had some good losses this season to UConn by 7 and to Tennessee by 9. In a crucial game against Temple in the second last week of the year they crushed the Owls 35-17. The Bobcats have a big edge at QB, its defense was stellar all season and let’s not forget that they also have all the aforementioned momentum on its side too. Play: Ohio –3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Brett Atkins

I'm 10-7 with my last 17 free selections and today I've got a comp winner coming on the pro hardwood as I'm going with the Thunder to get the job doen against the Bobcats in Oklhaoma City.

Oklahoma City just went on a three-game road trip that tested them in Houston, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The Thunder went just 1-2 on the trip but played their asses off in all three and showed they are right on the verge of moving into the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

That’s why I’ll lay the chalk with them today as they have had a couple days off to recover from the trip and return to their home court as a relatively short favorite. The Thunder are putting up 99.1 points per game at home this season while Charlotte really struggles to score on the highway, managing just 86.4 points a game on the highway.

I really like the Oklahoma City trio of Jeff Green, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. These guys went into Phoenix on Wednesday and scored 74 points in the 117-113 win over the Suns with Durant leading the way with 38 points.

The Bobcats are on ATS slides of 1-7 against Northwest Division teams and 4-12 when they get three or more days of rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on ATS runs of 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 as a home favorite and 5-0 when they get two days off.

Lay the chalk and play the Thunder!

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

Jay McNeil

The Magic didn't give the performance I was expecting being home on Christmas against Boston, but I'll bounce back quickly as I turn my attention back to college football!

I think the Panthers have been a little underrated all season. At least I haven't given them enough credit. They lost three games this season by a combined 11 points, and was less than a minute away from claiming the Big East title against Cincinnati.

While Pitt's 45-44 loss to the Bearcats had to be gut-wrenching, I think coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team ready to give a strong effort today as he has been pounding into the Panthers that they can be the first Pitt team to win 10 games since junior QB Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.

Pitt has a superior offense with Bill Stull, who was named all-conference this year, and running back Dion Lewis, the Big East's offensive player of the year, who has rushed for 1,640 yards (136.7 per game) and 16 touchdowns.

North Carolina has one of the nation's top defenses, but I think the Panthers have enough weapons to get the job done today, and Pitt's 26th-ranked defense should be able to shut down the Tar Heels' offense.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. I think they cap off their season with a big victory today. Take Pitt to win by at least a touchdown.

3♦ PITTSBURGH

Charley Sutton

Bad call yesterday as UNLV can’t take care of business and ends up taking the loss.

I’m not losing again tonight as I’m taking USC in the Emerald Bowl against Boston College.

Boston College rolls into this game having failed to cover in 3 straight games.

Consider, too, Boston College has gone just 1-3 ATS its last 4 games on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games at neutral sites and have failed to cover in 5 straight games in December.

It’ll be another tough road for BC as the Trojans get over in this one.

3 ♦ USC

Joel Tyson

I know all about how the Trojans are NOT playing in the bowl they really want to be playing in, but I have to tell you, they are hands-down the more talented team, and I feel pretty sure the cream will rise to the top in this game.

The line keeps coming down in this game, and after watching Boston College look HORRID in their 2 road games against bowl-bound teams - losing to both at Clemson and Virginia Tech - I just have a feeling the Eagles will lose touch in this game and not stay within the impost.

The Trojans are 6-1 both straight up, and against the spread in their last 7 bowl games.

I will lay the wood with SoCal!

4♦ USC TROJANS

Pete Angelo

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh

Good ol' ACC-Big East clash takes place Saturday, and I'm willing to bet the Over is going to come in long before this thing ends.

I know why the number is a bit low, that being the Heels don't boast much of an offense but they have a tremendous defense; but that doesn't stop me when we're talking about a Pitt team that is looking to erase the painful memory of losing its last two games of the season - to Big East rivals West Virginia and Cincinnati.

And with the 16th-best scoring offense in the league, you better believe the Panthers will be looking to set the tone early by dazzling UNC's defense and getting defensive coordinator Everett Withers to make adjustments mid-first half.

The Panthers have a balanced game, and the only way for the Heels to stay in this one is to play their best offensive game of the year.

It's put some points up when it had to, and despite scoring a meager 24.33 points per game for the year, North Carolina averaged better than 30 points per game in its last three contests.

Trust me, the Panthers will ignite the Heels and this will turn into quite the barn burner. Play it high.

2♦ OVER

Chuck O'Brien

Take Ohio and lay the field goal in its Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Marshall.

Much more interested in siding with the 9-4 Bobcats over the 6-6 Thundering Herd, as Ohio is in enjoying one of its finest seasons in school history and coming off an appearance in the Mid-American Conference championship game, while Marshall stumbled to the finish line in the mediocre Conference USA.

The Bobcats, who can tie a school record for victories in a season with a win today, split their first four games, but two came against quality opponents UConn (23-16 at home) and Tennessee (34-23 on the road), and both those squads are playing in really good bowl games. After the 2-2 start, Ohio ripped off seven wins in eight games to earn the MAC East Division title and a date with Central Michigan in the MAC championship game. Although the Bobcats, who were really banged up, lost that contest 20-10 – and make no mistake, Central Michigan was head and shoulders the class of the MAC this year – they covered as a 13½-point underdog. Thus, Ohio enters this game having cashed in nine of its last 11 games, including the last four in a row.

Marshall ended the regular season losing five of eight games, failing to cover in the final three. Four of the five losses came against opponents – East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Florida and Southern Miss – that went bowling this year (and both Central Florida and Southern Miss already got destroyed in their two bowls). Meanwhile two of the three wins came against Conference USA bottom-feeders UAB and Tulane.

Ohio has the better offense (25.4 ppg) than Marshall (21.8 ppg) and the better defense (21.3 ppg allowed) than Marshall (24.9 ppg allowed). And while the Bobcats have covered in seven of nine overall and seven of nine non-conference games, the Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 outside of Conference USA and 1-4 ATS in their last five against MAC opponents. Ohio, much healthier now than in the MAC championship game, wins this one by at least a touchdown.

4♦ OHIO

Tony Weston

Brutal call on the Lakers yesterday as the Cavs take care of business in Los Angeles.

I’m redeeming myself today as I’m taking Pitt over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Coming into this game Pitt might very well have been one of the most underrated teams in the country, sitting at 9-3 SU.

The Panthers lost their 3 games by a combined 11 points, with that final loss coming by a point against undefeated Cincinnati, which will be playing in a BCS bowl game.

Consider that Pitt has gone 5-3 ATS its last 8 games and has covered in 7 of its last 10 games overall when installed as a favorite.

The Panthers will get over again tonight and cruise to an easy victory over North Carolina.

3♦ PITTSBURGH

Karl Garrett

North Carolina +2 vs. PITTSBURGH - at Charlotte

G-Man going to grab the points - small as they are - in the Meineke Car Care Bowl this Saturday afternoon.

Both schools are coming off of disappointing ends to their regular season, as North Carolina was upended by NC State, while Pitt suffered a heartbreaker to Cincinnati that kept them from claiming the Big East's automatic BCS bowl bid.

I feel that loss to Cincy will have residual effects on this game, and I don't see the Panthers coming through.

Pitt was actually shut out in their bowl game last season, 3-0 by Oregon State. The Panthers offense will be able to score in this game, but that North Carolina defense is in the Top-10 in the land in overall defense, and I have a feeling the Panthers will not do enough damage in this spot.

North Carolina gets the luxury of playing in Charlotte for the second straight postseason, and last year they lost a 31-30 thriller to West Virginia as the 2 1/2-point underdog.

Redemption time in Charlotte!

Take North Carolina plus any points.

3♦ NORTH CAROLINA