Bobby Maxwell
North Carolina +2' vs. Pitt, in Charlotte, N.C.
Delivered my eighth straight FREE winner Friday night as the Suns destroyed the Clippers for an easy win. I've now delivered comp winners 13 of the last 14 days and I'm 36-15 with freebies over the last 51 days! Tonight I've got another comp winner, this time on the college gridiron as I go with North Carolina to take care of Pitt in the Meineke Car Care Bowl from Charlotte, N.C.
Pittsburgh missed out on a Big East championship with a tough loss to Cincinnati in the season finale, and it’s going to be very tough for the Panthers to get emotionally ready for this one against North Carolina, who is basically playing a home game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
The Meineke Car Care Bowl is not where the Panthers wanted to end up in the postseason, but that brutal 45-44 loss to the Bearcats on Dec. 5 is what is lingering in their heads. The Panthers led 31-10 in the second quarter but lost on a Cincinnati TD pass in the final seconds. Very tough one to rebound from.
North Carolina went 4-1 SU and ATS down the stretch, including outright wins over Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College. The Tar Heels play a suffocating defense, allowing just 267.8 yards per game and 16.9 points per contest, good for sixth in the nation in total defense.
Pitt showed it didn’t have the mental makeup to rebound for bowl games last year, after losing out on the Big East title they went to the Sun Bowl and lost 3-0 to Oregon State.
The Tar Heels are on ATS runs of 4-0 against teams with a winning record, 7-1 as an underdog, 4-1 after a non-cover and 12-3 as an underdog of up to three points. They got some productive offense in the finale against North Carolina State, with QB T.J. Yates throwing for 280 yards and two scores and WR Greg Little catching six balls for 159 yards.
Expect the North Carolina defense to hold strong and the Tar Heels’ offense to do just enough. Grab the points and play the Tar Heels.
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Dominic Fazzini
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh -2 at Charlotte, N.C.
I underrated the influence USC point guard Mike Gerrity was going to have Friday night as the Trojans took control early and hammered UNLV 67-56, sticking me with a loss on my complimentary selection. But I'm still 45-31 over the past 76 days, including a run of 28-18, and I will rebound today with a big winner!
Pittsburgh has two top-notch players leading its offense with all-Big East quarterback Bill Stull and running back Dion Lewis, the conference's offensive player of the year.
Yes, North Carolina ranked sixth in the nation in total defense (267.8 ypg) this year, including ninth against the run and 15th against the pass. But I believe the Panthers, who averaged 33.2 points per game have enough offensive talent, with six players being named all-conference, to put up enough points today to come away with a relatively easy victory.
Tar Heels QB T.J. Yates has been very inconsistent this year, throwing 12 passes and 14 interceptions, and he was the 10th-rated passer in the ACC. And UNC's top rusher, Ryan Houston, only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and cracked 100 yards just once this season, gaining 164 against a mediocre Duke team on Nov. 7. He didn't have more than 76 in any other game.
The Panthers are tough on defense, too, ranking 26th in the nation (323.9 ypg).
Pitt lost three games by a combined 11 points this year, including a 45-44 gut-wrenching loss to Cincinnati in the final minute that decided the Big East championship. But even with that defeat, I think Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team up for this game, as he has preached to his team that a win would make it the first Pitt squad to win 10 games in a season since Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.
Many of the ATS trends favor the Tar Heels today, but I just think Pitt has more talent and enough motivation to win this game. Take the Panthers to win by a touchdown or more.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Jeff Benton
Boston College vs. USC -7, at San Francisco
For Saturday’s free play, I’ll head to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco and play USC minus the points against Boston College.
I wouldn’t recommend the Trojans, even for a free play, if this was one of Pete Carroll’s more veteran squads, one that would undoubtedly be down in the dumps to be playing in the Emerald Bowl on Dec. 26 instead of a marquee January bowl game. But this year, Carroll’s squad is very young and very raw, and I fully expect that he’s informed his troops that this game is essentially a tryout for next year. In a nutshell, I think Carroll will dangle some pretty big carrots in front of his players to ensure they show up for this game motivated and determined to carry on the pride USC tradition.
Assuming that’s an accurate assessment, USC will destroy Boston College, because athlete for athlete, this is a huge mismatch. As it stands, the Eagles’ four losses came against the four best teams it faced (Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and North Carolina), and three of those were doubled-digit blowouts by an average of 23.3 points per game. The other was a 20-16 loss at Notre Dame. Well, USC went to Notre Dame a week earlier and won 34-27 (and they were leading 34-13 in the fourth quarter).
The Trojans have always come to play in bowl games, winning and covering in six of eight since Carroll took over. That includes winning the last three Rose Bowls (over Penn State, Illinois and Michigan) by a combined score 119-49.
Bottom line, this pointspread is a reflection of two things: 1) USC tailback Joe McKnight’s status is in doubt because of an eligibility issue, and 2) many believe the Trojans have no desire to be in this game. My response to both topics: McKnight is special, but he’s replaceable, especially against a mediocre squad like Boston College, and I don’t agree with the assessment that USC will pull a no-show today. They never have in a bowl game since Carroll took over, losing only the 2005 national title game in the final seconds to Texas 41-38 and the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl (in Carroll’s second season) 10-6 to Utah. The Trojans’ six bowl wins under Carroll? All of them routs by at least two TDs with an average victory margin of 21.8 ppg.
8♦ USC
Stephen Nover
San Antonio -2' at MILWAUKEE
Nailed Friday's free play on the Heat outright at New York. For Saturday, I've got a comp play on the Spurs-Bucks game.
The Bucks were riding high when they played the Spurs for the first time this season. Milwaukee was 9-3 at the time, its best start since 2001-02.
But San Antonio crushed Milwaukee at home, winning 112-88 on Nov. 23. Since then, the Bucks have gone 3-12.
Milwaukee has lost its last three games at the Bradley Center. The Bucks traditionally play San Antonio tough, covering eight of the past 10 times. However, this is bad timing for Milwaukee.
The veteran Spurs have had two full days of rest. They are off a shocking home loss to severely banged-up Portland in which they were bet up to double-digit favorites. So the Spurs won't be taking Milwaukee lightly. This is an important game for them.
The Spurs out-rebounded the Bucks, 46-29, in their earlier meeting. They held hotshot rookie guard Brandon Jennings to 12 points on 6-of-21 shooting from the floor. The Spurs won that matchup without Manu Ginobili, who is back playing.
Jennings had a hot first month, but has tallied off badly since them. His scoring average has gone down six points from 25 points to 19 during the past 15 games.
The Spurs currently rank ninth in defense giving up less than 97 points per game. The Bucks are averaging just 89.5 points in their last four games.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
LT Profits
Boston College vs USC
The USC Trojans are coming off of the worst season in the Pete Carroll era, and one has to question their enthusiasm for this minor bowl vs. the Boston College Eagles after uncharacteristically showing signs of quitting late in the year.
The Trojans went 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games while incredibly allowing 32.5 points per game in the six non-covers. Furthermore, even the game they did cover during this stretch was deceptive, as they had just a 14-7 lead over UCLA until scoring two touchdowns in the final 1:30 of the game, accounting for the 28-7 final, including inexplicably throwing a 48-yard touchdown pass with 44 seconds left.
As if that is not bad enough, that lackadaisical USC attitude has spread to the classroom, and as a result, the Trojans will be short at least three starters here due to academic problems. Additionally, one other starter is definitely out with injury (safety Josh Pinkard), and starting wide receiver David Ausberry is questionable at best with a leg injury. Just about the only good news may be that running back Joe KcKnight may have barely avoided suspension.
While USC appears to be indifferent and in disarray, Boston College went a surprising 8-4 this year and they are thrilled to have this opportunity to knock off a marquee program. The Eagles also match up well with the Trojans defensively, as BC allowed only 19.4 points per game during the regular year, surrendering just 3.0 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. This unit can give the young USC skill position players fits.
Finally, do not forget that ACC underdogs have gone an incredible 25-8-1, 75.8 percent in Bowls since 2000, and that Boston College had won eight straight bowl games before losing by two points to Vanderbilt this year. They may or may not start a new streak here, but we do not see BC losing by more than a field goal.
Pick: Boston College +7
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -6.5
Atlanta is 20-8 SU & ATS on the season and I'll back it here against a Pacers team that is really struggling. Atlanta already owns an 11-point win over the Pacers this season and it will be hungry here after getting mopped up by Denver last game. In fact, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Hawks.
THE GOLDSHEET: 3-3
Ohio 26 - Marshall 19–In this meeting of old MAC rivals, Ohio holds most of
the important edges. The Bobcat program has stabilized under HC Frank
Solich, making its second bowl appearance in his fifth season. By contrast,
Marshall is in a state of flux, as HC Mark Snyder resigned under pressure and
has been replaced by West Virginia assistant John “Doc” Holliday. The team
will be coached by Thundering Herd d.c. and ex-Cincinnati HC Rick Minter, who
very much wanted the head coaching job.
The Bobcats have a much more dynamic and productive QB in fifth-year sr.
QB Theo Scott, who had no interceptions, 6 TD passes and threw for 200 ypg
in his last 3 starts. Scott can also make plays with his legs. He has a trio of
explosive receivers in LaVon Brazill, Taylor Price and Terrence McRae, who
combined for 135 catches, 1958 yards and 19 TDs. Brazill returned three punts
for scores. RB Chris Garrett proved a solid rushing threat, averaging 4.7 ypc in
his career, and he’s also another receiving option (60 career catches).
Marshall is heavily reliant on the production of RB Darius Marshall, who ran
for 1054 yards and 11 TDs despite sitting out three games. He missed the last
two games after injuring his ankle, but should be recovered for this game. Jr.
QB Brian Anderson threw for 2561 YP, but has thrown nearly as many ints. (13)
as TDPs (14), and he isn’t a scrambler (negative YR in his 23 games for the
Herd). Marshall’s defense ranked 80th overall, and 99th against the pass.
Ohio is much healthier now than it was in the MAC championship game
against Central Michigan, when Scott, Garrett and Brazill were all less than
100%. Although CB Idris Lawrence was injured against CMU and won’t play,
the key secondary playmakers for the Bobcat defense are sr. S Patrick Tafua &
RS frosh S Gerald Moore (13th in the country with 6 ints.). True to Solich’s form
as a coach, the Bobcats took care of the ball this season, ranking 6th in turnover
margin (Marshall was 86th). Ohio is taking significantly more fans to Ford Field
than Marshall, and the Bobcats reportedly relish the chance to renew hostilities
vs. their old rival, which has failed to excel since jilting the MAC for C-USA five
years ago. (DNP...SR: Ohio 29-17-6)
*NORTH CAROLINA 26 - Pittsburgh 23—Those who had the misfortune of
tuning into Pitt’s ghastly 3-0 Sun Bowl loss to Oregon State last season will
hardly recognize the Panther offense this year. Late-blooming sr. QB Bill Stull
has fired 21 TD passes vs. only 8 interceptions, versatile former RB & LB sr.
Dorin Dickerson (10 TD catches) is excelling at TE, and athletic 6-5, 225 soph
WR Jonathan Baldwin (20 ypc & 8 TDs on 54 receptions) oozes pro potential.
Plus, there’s lightly-recruited true frosh RB Dion Lewis, who’s scored 17 TDs
and dashed for 1640 yards on the ground, the third-highest rushing total in the
nation this season!
While the balanced Pitt attack vs. the speedy North Carolina defense
allowing only 268 ypg (No. 6 in the country) and loaded with future NFL draft
picks is the marquee battle in this matchup, the game will likely hinge on how
well the Panther stop unit is able to hector Tar Heel QB T.J. Yates. Sure, it won’t
be easy to keep the potent Pitt pass rush (nation-leading 45 sacks) at bay. But
the banged-up Carolina OL did start to solidify down the stretch. And, with
“body punches” by 6-2, 245 Tar Heel sr. RB Ryan Houston
pounding some of the purpose out of the Panthers’
determined front 7, the confident jr. Yates, a three-year
starter, should find sufficient time to strike a few major aerial
blows. Add in wily HC Butch Davis’ track record in bowls (5-
0 vs. the spread) and as an underdog (covered 7 of the last 8
in that role), as well as a staunchly partisan Carolina crowd at
Charlotte, and the Tar Heels seem likely to erase the bitter
memory of their one-point loss to West Virginia on the same
field a year ago.
(DNP...SR: North Carolina 4-2)
*Southern Cal 20 - Boston College 17—Before the season began, we’re
not sure that even Nostradamus would have forecast SC lining up against BC
in bowl action. That’s because the Trojans, BCS regulars over the past seven
seasons, haven’t played in a pre-New Year’s bowl since Pete Carroll’s first
Trojan team lost to Utah in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, which curiously marked
SC’s 6th straight spread loss in non-New Year’s/BCS action.
Pointspread failures by the Trojans in past lower-echelon bowls, however, is
no indicator that history will repeat itself in San Francisco...but SC’s recent
shortcomings against the number (2-9 last 11 TY) could convince otherwise. It
is unlikely that Carroll has had the time to correct the schematic flaws,
particularly on the offensive side, that insiders believe brought the Trojans back
to the Pac-10 pack in 2009. Inconsistencies demonstrated by first-year playcaller
Jeremy Bates contributed to the alarming regression of true frosh QB
Matt Barkley, who tossed at least one pick in his last eight games as the “O”
sputtered down the stretch (only 20 ppg last 5). Meanwhile, defenders seemed
more concerned with delivering highlight-reel hits than their basic
responsibilities (ballyhooed S Taylor Mays a main culprit), allowing an un-
Carroll-like nearly 30 ppg the last half of the campaign.
Granted, the choppy Eagle attack dealt with its own ups-and-downs at QB
with 25-year-old frosh Dave Shinskie shaking off the rust after six years of minor
league baseball. Soph RB Montel Harris, however, ran with some flair down the
stretch (561 YR last 4), and HC Frank Spaziani’s stout rush “D” allowed a mere
2.9 ypc. Those and other factors indicate no-nonsense BC (8-1 SU its last 9
bowls!) can likely keep this one interesting.
BOWL TECH PLAYS
NORTH CAROLINA
Over the past decade, one of the nation’s most successful bowl coaches
has been North Carolina’s Butch Davis, who leads his Tar Heels against
Pittsburgh in the Meineke Car Care Bowl at Charlotte December 26. Davis has
covered all five of his bowl pointspread decisions at Miami & Chapel Hill, and
please note his Tar Heels have covered 7 of their last 8 chances as an underdog.
North Carolina is also a featured recommendation in both the Power Underdog
and College Coach as Underdog (with Davis) systems vs. the Panthers.
BOSTON COLLEGE
One of the truths of the 2009 college season was never to trust Southern
Cal, which posted one of the nation’s worst spread marks as it failed to live up
to expectations. The Trojans, who dropped 9 of their last 11 vs. the number
this season, will be hard-pressed to turn things around when facing rugged
Boston College in the Emerald Bowl at San Francisco’s AT&T Park
December 26. Note, too, that SC coach Pete Carroll is also just 2-8 vs. the line
his last 10 chances as chalk away from the Coliseum, and historically the Trojans
have fared poorly in these “pre-New Year’s” bowls (although they haven’t
played in one of them since 2001), failing to cover in their last six. Meanwhile, the
Eagles had won eight straight bowl games prior to last year’s 16-14 loss to
Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl, and BC is 15-6 its last 21 as a dog. The Eagles
are also a preferred “7+” bowl dog (dogs getting 7 points or more are 61-32 vs.
the number this decade), as well as a preferred Power Underdog vs. SC.
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER
OHIO vs. MARSHALL (Little Caesars Bowl, December 26)...Frank
Solich and Rick Minter a combined 3-7 SU and vs. line in bowls. Solich,
however, is 10-4 vs. line last 14 on board since late LY. Ohio also covered its
last 4 TY and Bobcats covered 5 of last 6 away from Athens. Herd failed to
cover last 3 on board TY but did cover 4 of 7 away from home, improvement
on recent road marks (9-21 vs. line from ‘04-08). Note MAC 0-5 vs. line in
bowls LY, however. Tech edge-slight to Ohio, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH (Meineke Car Care Bowl,
December 26)...Note Butch Davis 5-0 vs. line in previous bowls at Miami and
UNC. Heels covered 4 of last 5 in ‘09 and were 3-1 as dog, Butch now 7-1 vs.
line his last 8 as dog. Tech edge-UNC, based on Butch bowl trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE VS. SOUTHERN CAL (Emerald, December
26)...Trojans offered poor value TY, just 2-9 vs. line last 11 on board TY. Pete
Carroll also just 2-8 vs. number last 10 as favorite away from home. Trojans
have failed to cover last 6 pre-New Year’s bowls dating back to 1985 Aloha
Bowl vs. Alabama (although Carroll hasn’t been involved in one of those since
2001 Las Vegas Bowl loss vs. Utah), but Carroll has covered last 3 and 6 of
last 7 bowls overall. Carroll just 27-34 vs. number last 61 on board since mid
‘05. BC had won 8 straight bowls prior to LY’s 16-14 loss vs. Vandy in Music
City. Eagles, however, have failed to cover last 3 bowls after covering
previous 6. Spaziani 2-2 vs. line as dog TY but BC 15-6 vs. spread last 21 in
role. Note that 7-13½-point bowl dogs are 58-28 vs. number this decade!
Tech edge-BC, based on team trends.
CKO
10 OHIO over Marshall
OHIO 28 - Marshall 17
Ohio observers confident of a positive result behind intense 5th-year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats are much healthier than they were in the MAC championship game, and they own the more versatile and explosive attack, led by multi-talented QB Theo Scott and a trio of dangerous receivers. The Bobcats have a superor defense as well. Meanwhile, Marshall team and staff must be feeling jilted, as interim HC Minter is just a temp for departed Mark Snyder, with incoming HC John Holliday observing. (at Detroit, Michigan)
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
The series dates back to 1905 and OU leads 29-17-6. These 2 were MAC foes from ’97-’04 & MU went 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) vs the Bobcats in that span. Marshall enters the bowl with mixed emotions. They finished the regular season 6-6 and are making their 1st bowl appearance since 2004, but HC Snyder resigned (under pressure) after the season finale and DC Rick Minter will coach the bowl. Minter was the HC at Cincy from 1994-2003 and took them to 4 bowl gms (1-3 SU/ATS). OU is gunning for their 1st 10 win ssn since 1968 and they finished the yr on an 9-2 ATS run. This is their 2nd bowl under HC Solich as they lost to CUSA foe SMiss 28-7 (+6) in the ‘06 GMAC Bowl. Solich is now 2-4 SU/ATS in bowl gms (5 gms at Neb). The Bobcats played on this field on Dec 4th in the MAC title game (lost to CM 20-10, +13’). The Herd faced 7 bowl teams this year and went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, being outscored 27-18 and being outgained 374-320. OU went 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms outscoring them 28-27 despite being outgained 406-337. Both teams won and covered vs BG, as Marshall won 17-10 (+3) at home despite being outgained 393-346, but they did hold the Falcons to just 10 rush yds. OU won at BG 44-37 (+2’), but were also outgained 474-419 despite rushing for 216 yds. Marshall has 6 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters, while Ohio has 10 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters. The Herd went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 3-2 as a dog. OU went 5-2 ATS away from home, incl 1-2 as a favorite.
The Herd has our #95 offense avg 22 ppg and 355 ypg. They received inconsistent play out of QB Anderson. He avg’d 213 ypg (58%) with a 14-13 ratio on the season and definitely missed TE Slate, a Mackey semifinalist, who was the leading receiver (50-607-12.1-4) before suffering a torn ACL in week 10. WR Wilson stepped up in Slate’s absence and finished as the #1 receiver with 57 rec (12.4). RB Marshall was near the top of the NCAA in rushing before missing the L/2 with an ankle inj. He avg’d 117 ypg (5.1) and rushed for 11 TD’s and should be 100% here. He runs behind an OL that avg 6’5” 304. They paved the way for 3.9 ypc and allowed 23 sks (5.9%). It will be interesting to see who handles the D since Minter will have to focus on the entire squad. Marshall has our #74 defense all’g 25 ppg and 392 ypg. The DL avg 6’3” 272 and is led by ‘07 CUSA DPOY McClellan, whose numbers are down due to a nagging ankle inj and the fact that he faces almost constant double-teams. He still led the team in tfl (9.0) and had 3 of the DL’s 13.5 sks (23 total sks). LB Harvey led the team in tkls and sks. The pass D ranks #82 all’g 247 ypg (59%) with a 19-8 ratio. CB Bembry leads the secondary with 11 passes defended. Marshall has our #85 ST’s. Booker (15.8) would be #5 in NCAA in PR avg if he had enough to qualify. K Ratanamorn has been nearly perfect, making 15-16 FG (4-4 from 40+) and all 31 of his PAT.
The Bobcats have our #102 offense avg 25 ppg and 325 ypg. QB Scott started the 1st 2 gms LY before being lost for the yr (Med RS), but started 12 gms TY. Scott had two 300+ gms incl 319 vs TN (most allowed all year). Surprisingly, Ohio, under HC Solich, avg just 120 ypg rushing (3.6) with just 9 rush TD. The Cats had 3 RB’s over 225 yds but none over 600. Ohio has 3 WR’s with 500+ yds incl two 2nd Tm MAC WR’s in Price and Brazill. The OL has had its ups and downs with 2 Sr’s and 3 underclassmen avg 6’4” 291. They allowed 26 sacks (6.9%) but did have a 5 gm streak with 0 sacks and had two 3rd Tm MAC players in LT Chris Rodgers and RT Joe Flading. Ohio has our #63 def allowing 21 ppg and 354 ypg and led the NCAA with 36 takeaways. The DL avg 6’3” 280 with 4 Jr starters, including 3rd Tm MAC DT Ernie Hodge, had 12 of Ohio’s 20 sks while allowing 3.9 ypc. The LB unit has the top 2 tklrs in 1st Tm MAC MLB Keller and 1st Tm MAC WLB Renfro. The secondary has 3 Sr starters including 2nd Tm MAC CB Turner and rFr FS Moore, who was 3rd Tm MAC. They allowed 203 ypg but with just a 17-20 ratio. A big key in Ohio winning the MAC East was their ST’s which rank #11. They blocked 4 punts and had 5 ret TD’s while allowing none. Ohio had 3 ST’s All-MAC players in KR Garrett (1st Tm), PR Brazill (1st Tm) and K Weller (1st Tm), who made 20-27 FG incl 8-12 from 40+ with a L/52.
Marshall enters off their worst performance of the year as they were mauled at UTEP allowing 52 pts. The D is talented with several potential NFL’ers and this layoff will allow them to regroup. MU’s offense has topped 21 pts just once in their L/4. While we’re aware OU has gone Over the total in 3 of the L/4, OU’s offense has avg’d just 317 ypg their L/4 away from home while the D has only allowed 18 ppg in their last 8. Expect a hard hitting, low scoring game with both defenses slowing down the opposition’s rush attack.
FORECAST: Marshall/Ohio UNDER 49’ RATING: 1*
Seventh meeting between these 2 and NC is 4-2 SU and 5-0 ATS but their last meeting was in ‘00 (NC 20-17, +8). NC is 12-14 SU all-time in bowls and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L/7. The Tar Heels are making their 2nd consec trip to here and they lost to WV LY 31-30 (+2). HC Davis is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. NC is making B2B bowl appearances for the 1st time S/’97-‘98. NC is 8-4 SU (7-5 ATS) with all 4 losses vs conf opp’s. Pitt is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS but their 3 losses were by a combined 11 pts. This is Pitt’s 26th all-time bowl gm and they are 10-15 SU and 1-5 SU/ATS their L/6. This is Pitt’s 2nd visit to Charlotte with their last visit a loss in ‘03 vs UVA (23-16 +3). HC Wannstedt is 0-1 SU/ATS in bowls. Davis and Wannstedt worked together under Jimmy Johnson at Miami (FL), Oklahoma St and with the Dallas Cowboys. These 2 both faced Conn and NCSt this year with both beating UC but losing to NC State (both 0-2 ATS). Pitt has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), outscoring them by an avg of 29-22 and outgaining them 406-301 ypg while NC also faced 7 (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), only outscoring foes 23-19 and being outgained 311-301. The Panthers have 11 Sr starters among their 15 upperclassmen while the Tar Heels have just 4 among their 17 upperclassmen. Both teams play their home games on grass. Pitt has gone 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY while NC was 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS. Pitt was 7-2 as a fav TY while NC was 3-1 as a dog. The Tar Heels will have the fan edge as this is only about 65 miles from Chapel Hill and Pitt fans usually do not travel well to bowls.
Pitt has our #22 offense avg 400 ypg and 33 ppg. Coming into the year QB Stull (#11 pass eff) had to battle for his job after last year’s poor performance in the Sun Bowl and won back the hearts of fans (booed early on) to lead Pitt to the their best record S’/02 and a shot at a BCS game. DW runs a pro-style offense (rare these days) with a slew of weapons to choose from. RB Lewis (#3 NCAA) is the workhorse for the offense, breaking the BE’s frosh rushing record and is 46 yds shy of Tony Dorsett’s school record. Hynoski is their throwback FB. Hybrid TE Dickerson (4.4 spd) has moved from RB to WR to LB in his career and leads NCAA TE’s with 10 TD’s. WR Baldwin (6’5”) avg 20.0 ypc and was 1st WR to go over 1,000 since Lee in ‘04. The OL avg 6’4” 293 with 3 Sr’s and has paved the way for 184.6 (5.0), all’g 13 sks. The Pitt defense has our #23 ranking all’g 324 ypg and 20 ppg. They lead the NCAA with 44 sacks. The DL avg 6-4 274 all’g 108 rush ypg (3.3) with 34 of the team’s 44 sks. They are led by a pair of All-Conf players in DE Romeus (8 sk) and DT Williams (15 tfl). The heart of the defense is LB Gunn (#3 tklr) who returned from LY’s neck inj. The secondary is all’g 216 ypg (57%) with a 15-14 ratio. SS DeCicco leads the team in tkls (85) and Berry is their top corner, but he missed time with inj and DNP vs WV. Pitt has our #73 ST’s ranking. Dan Hutchins handles both K and P duties and earned BE POW vs Conn. KR Saddler was leading the BE (25.7) before missing 2 gms with inj. The cover units are all’g 21.6 on KR and 9.0 on PR.
QB Yates became just the 2nd player in NC history to throw over 5,000 career yds (#2 comp, #2 TD, #2 att). NC has struggled with their running game but have been more productive as of late despite the loss of RB Shaun Draughn, who suffered a fractured shoulder vs Duke and is out for the year. Ryan Houston has moved into the starting role. TE Zack Pianalto, when healthy, has been one of NC’s top offensive weapons (missed 4 w/foot inj and most of FSU w/concussion). The O-line avg 6’5” 305 blocking for 3.7 ypc but has all’d 23 sks (6.9%). This unit is led by HM ACC LT Kyle Jolly. NC has our #90 off and #9 def. The Tar Heels are avg 24 ppg while only all’g 17. NC’s D has been solid TY and ranks #6 in total D in the NCAA (#9 w/19 int and #3 101 tfl). The DL avg 6’4” 295 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DE Robert Quinn (4.51 spd), who ranks #1 in the ACC in tfl and #2 in sks, and 2nd Tm ACC DT Marvin Austin. The rush D is all’g just 92.8 ypg (2.8). The LB’s are solid with 1st Tm ACC Quan Sturdivant and 2nd Tm Bruce Carter (#1 and #2 tklrs). NC has our #18 ranked pass eff D. The secondary is led by a pair of 1st Tm ACC in CB Kendric Burney (#19 NCAA w/5 int) and S Deunta Williams (#8 NCAA w/6 int). The Tar Heels have our #54 spec tms. NC is avg 20.1 on KR’s and 13.2 on PR’s. They all’d 21.1 on KR’s and 5.0 on PR’s.
If HC Wannstedt can properly motivate the Panthers after letting a 21 pt lead dissipate in a BCS clincher, they should come away with a win. It will be an entertaining matchup as the checklist shows Pitt with all of the offensive advantages and NC with most of the defensive edges. While we usually side with the defense, the Panthers’ stop unit is a talented bunch and will be able to slow a NC offense which has topped 21 pts just 5 times vs IA foes.
FORECAST: PITTSBURGH by 10 RATING: 3* PITT
This will mark the 3rd meeting all-time between these 2 programs (USC 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) but the 1st in postseason play. USC is in an unfamiliar role this bowl ssn as they lost their spot atop the P10 mountain for the 1st time S/’01. They also fell out of the Top 25 and failed to reach the 10 win plateau for the 1st time since Carroll’s 1st ssn in LA. This is USC’s first trip to the Emerald Bowl and 9th straight bowl overall (6-2 SU/ATS). Although this is BC HC Spaziani’s 1st yr, he was the interim coach for the ‘06 bowl after Tom O’Brien unexpectedly left for NC State. The Eagles will be playing in their 11th consec bowl (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) and will be making their way to the Bay Area for the 2nd time as they ply’d Colo St in the then “San Francisco Bowl” back in ‘03 (35-21 win). USC took on 8 bowl caliber tms TY going 5-3 SU (2-6 ATS) breaking even in the scoring dept (26-26) while actually being outgained 391-372. BC also struggled vs bowl eligible tms going 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) being outscored 26-18 and outgained 341-263. The Trojans have 8 Sr starters and 17 upperclassmen and the Eagles also have 8 Sr starters with 16 upperclassmen. USC went 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS on the road while BC went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Both schools faced ND in South Bend TY but with different results as the Trojans escaped w/a 34-27 win (501-367 yd edge) and the Eagles blew a 3 pt 4Q lead falling to the Irish 20-16 (outgained 352-349).
The ssn did not look promising for BC as they lost their starting QB over the summer (acad) and were w/o ‘08 ACC Def POY LB Herzlich who was diagnosed with cancer. BC finished 8-4 but for a 3rd str yr was dealt a 2nd-tier bowl. BC finished with our #69 rated off TY avg 26 ppg and 325 ypg. True Fr QB Shinskie, who is 25 and spent 6 yrs in MLB, set a BC Frosh rec’d for pass TD and pass yds. The run gm has been solid with 2nd Tm ACC RB Harris who has 7 gms with 100+ rush yds TY. The OL avg 6’6” 302 and all’d 3.8 ypc and 17 sks (5.3%). This unit is led by 1st Tm ACC LT Castonzo and 2nd Tm ACC C Tennant. BC has our #24 overall rated def all’g 19 ppg and 318 ypg. The DL avg 6’4” 266 with 3 Sr’s. The rush D is all’g 3.0 ypc and the DL has 12 of their 17 sks. With Herzlich OFY and Thompson and McLaughlin sidelined early in the ssn w/inj’s, 1st Tm ACC true Fr Kuechly stepped up (#1 tklr) finishing #1 among Fr in the NCAA in tkls. BC ranks #32 in our pass D rankings all’g 214 ypg (61%) with a 10-13 ratio. BC has our #41 ST featuring former walk-on K Aponavicius who became BC’s all-time leading scorer. BC is avg 21.0 on KR and 12.2 on PR and is all’g 19.3 on KR and 8.9 on PR’s.
The USC off has been very inconsistent in ‘09 (#34) as they have avg just 27 ppg and 385 ypg on the yr. Part of this may be due to the growing pains of true Fr Barkley who looked sharp at times (final drive in Columbus) but has also faltered (Stanford). The run gm suffered the devastating loss of Stafon Johnson early on, RB’s McKnight and Bradford took over the bulk of the carries for the remainder of the ssn. FB Havili continues to be a weapon in the pass gm but a shldr inj hampered him during the yr. With a young QB, TE McCoy became an important part of the pass gm as he led the tm in ypc (20.8) but also dealt with some inj’s of his own. The inj bug also bit the WR’s as David Ausberry and Ronald Johnson missed significant time. The OL avg 6’5” 292 (3 Sr) paving the way for 5.1 ypc while allowing 17 sks (5%). OG Byers continues to be the face of the unit due to his versatility as he was forced to take over the starting C duties for an ailing O’Dowd (has since returned). USC’s def is ranked #21, all’g 20 ppg and 343 ypg on the yr but it was a tale of 2 halves as the def allowed 9 ppg and 239 ypg thru the 1st 5 gms but gave up an astonishing 29 ppg and 417 ypg after. The DL avg 6’3” 279 (0 Sr) and has accounted for 79% (26) of USC’s 33 sks. DE Griffen has 1st RD NFL draft potential and requires constant double tms. The LB unit is the main reason for the def struggles (LY’s NFL losses). The secondary is the most veteran group of the entire def led by the hard-hitting Mays and the experienced CB duo of Pinkard and Thomas. The unit as a whole allowed 212 ypg (53%) w/a 11-10 ratio ranking #13 in our ratings. USC has our #58 rated ST’s with 1st Tm P10 PR Williams (15.4 avg, 2 TD) while the PR def was great all’g just 2.1 ypr.
Rose, Rose, Rose, Rose, Orange, Rose, Orange - those are the last 7 bowls that the Trojans have played in and making this trip to San Fran for a bowl on the day after Christmas will test Carroll’s motivational skills. It is obvious from the checklist that USC is the superior team, but the continued loss of coordinators throughout the past several years has made them beatable. BC meanwhile is thrilled to be playing this caliber of opponent and they have won and covered their last 4 bowls when they’ve been a dog or pick.
FORECAST: BOSTON COLLEGE (+) USC by 4 RATING: 2* BOSTON COLLEGE
NC POWERPLAYS
With Marshall HC Snyder resigning, MU will be coached by DC Minter for the bowl. PP predicts
a 4 pt win by Ohio which is close to the line, but the better play is the total. PP predicts just 38 total
points and the line is currently 50. Two tough D’s and mediocre offenses = Under.
4* UNDER 50 OHIO/MARSHALL
PP calls this one right at the line showing Pitt with a 3 pt win and a 289-266 yd edge. We think
Pitt will rebound from blowing a 21 pt lead to Cincy in the ssn finale. We like Pitt.
NO PLAY: PITT 23 NORTH CAROLINA 20
Boston College is forecasted to keep it close losing by only 4 points and they also have the
special teams edge. Can’t imagine the Trojans being motivated for their 1st non-BCS bowl in 8 yrs.
4* BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 19 USC 23
LOGICAL APPROACH
Ohio U/Marshall
On the surface this appears to be one of the less attractive matchups this Bowl season as it pits a pair of little known programs against one another. Marshall is down considerably from the days of Pennington, Leftwich and Moss and, in fact, is undergoing a coaching change after coach Snyder was forced out despite the Herd making it to a Bowl. The team will be coached by assistant coach Minter who has previous head coaching experience at the FBS level. Ohio is coached by ex-Nebraska coach Solich who has a National Title on his resume. Unlike his Nebraska teams this season's Bobcats gained nearly two-thirds of its yards via the pass. Marshall shows a similar profile. Ohio was stronger on defense and led the nation averaging 2.8 takeaways per game. Creating turnovers was not a strength of Marshall which averaged just 1.3 takeaways (# 103). Ohio was competitive in non-conference losses to Connecticut and Tennessee while Marshall was blown out by Virginia Tech and also lost to instate rival West Virginia. Both teams beat Bowling Green by 7 points - Ohio U in a high scoring contest and Marshall in a defensive battle. Marshall ended the season by losing 3 of 4 while Ohio U had a 4 game winning streak broken in their competitive loss to Central Michigan in the MAC Title game. Marshall is in their first Bowl in 5 seasons while Ohio U returns after a w season absence so we should get enthuSIAstic performances from both teams. The teams appear evenly matched as is reflected in the short line. Ohio does deserve to be the slight favorite and based on their overall defensive edges earns the nod. Ohio wins 23-20, making
OHIO U a 1 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
North Carolina/Pittsburgh
Carolina had a second straight 8-4 season under coach Davis in his third season although they ended the season with a third straight loss to arch-rival NC State that snapped a late season 4 game win streak. But that's nothing compared to Pitt which was thinking BCS Bowl before dropping the final 2 Big East games to West Virginia and Cincinnati, including the blowing of a huge 21 point lead at home with that BCS bid on the line. They are making a second straight Bowl trip and seek to atone for a 3-0 loss in last season's Sun Bowl, one of the ugliest Bowl games in recent memory. Carolina is also in a second straight Bowl and return to the same Bowl in which they lost a 31-30 heartbreaker to West Virginia last season. Carolina should have the major crowd support edge and might be the more motivated team as a result. Both teams have solid defenses, especially Carolina which allows an average of just 268 yards per game (# 6). Their offense is weak however (# 107), averaging 89 yards less per game than Pitt. Both teams had narrow wins over Connecticut and both also lost competitive games to NC State. Pitt's offense excelled at protecting the football while Carolina was strong in forcing turnovers. Pitt's edge on offense is greater than Carolina's edge on defense. The most significant stat might be Carolina allowing just 2.8 yards per rush which should force Pitt into more of a passing game than they might prefer. Given the stakes played for at the end of the regular season Pitt may be in a more fragile state of mind. The fundamentals suggest a low scoring contest with the defenses making the bigger plays. Carolina also rates the coaching edge and should be the better prepared team and better able to make adjustments. The call is for Carolina to pull the mild upset. North Carolina wins 20-17, making
NORTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection and the
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .
Boston College/USC
This Bowl is a reward for a better than expected season for Boston College and a huge letdown for USC which normally plays in January, often for a Rose Bowl or BCS Championship. Their mindset has to be a concern especially with several key players expected to be OUT for this contest. Boston College was very limited on offense all season, especially on the road where they struggled to defeat lowly Virginia and Maryland, scoring just 19 and 14 points against that pair of 2 and 3 win foes. They also lost 20-16 at Notre Dame where USC won 34-27 earlier in the season in a game dominated statistically by the Trojans. In fact, in 5 road games BC did not reach 20 points in any of them. Against the "elite" teams they faced on the road, Boston College was outscored by Clemson and Virginia Tech by a combined 73-21 and were outgained 694-217! USC still has a solid defense but one that struggled against the more high powered offenses it faced in Pac 10 play. They should not be as challenged by BC's offense. The site should favor the Trojans playing within their home state and having numerous alums in the San Francisco area. BC had won 8 straight Bowls prior to losing last season 16-14 to a highly motivated Vanderbilt in what was a virtual home game for Vandy. USC has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 Bowls, all of which were BCS Bowls. Their last non-BCS Bowl was a 10-6 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Utah in 2001, coach Carroll's first season. USC has the clear talent edge. Although their motivation is a concern the lack of motivation is more often evident on offense where receivers may not go all out or linemen may not hold their blocks. Defenders almost always bring intensity as they just love to hit people. This game should be low scoring with USC having enough to get past a much weaker foe as Carroll and the Trojans look to 2010. USC wins 26-13, making
USC a 2 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: North Carolina +3
A large factor in lower tier bowl games is motivation and I got a sense that the
Tar Heels are the more motivated team in this matchup. Pitt senior defensive lineman
Gus Mustakas told the Post-Gazette, “It almost feels like throwing a season
away. You go so far and your goal is to win the Big East championship and you
come so close -- it really hurts, bad.” While Tar Heel coach Butch Davis had these
comments, “Our players are excited to continue their season and play so close to
home.” The bread and butter of Pitt’s offense is the strong running game led by
freshman Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,640 yards to finish third in the country. The
Tar Heels will counter with a defense that allowed only 93 yards a game to opposing
rushers, good for ninth best in the country. UNC struggled with its run game
but have been more productive over the second half of the season despite the
loss of Shaun Draughn to a shoulder injury. They averaged 170 ypg on the ground
and put up 28 ppg in their last seven games. In what is basically a home game for
a team playing its best football late in the season, North Carolina gets the nod.
BANG THE BOOK
The one thing that stands out about this bowl game is its name. Wow the pizza bowl? They seem to be getting more and more interesting every year but let’s focus on the game. In this game Ohio takes on Marshall to see who the winner of the prestigious pizza bowl will be.
Marshall is going through a lot as they head into this game. They do not have a current player on a team that has ever played in a bowl game and they are off a very disappointing bowl season in which they fired the head coach. Now interim head coach Rick Minter will have three weeks to get his kids ready for this bowl game.
Ohio finished the regular season 9-4, 7-1 MAC on the season. The Bobcats lost the Marathon Mid-American Conference Championship to Central Michigan, 20-10, on Friday, Dec. 4 at Ford Field. They have a very talented offense and will be up for a big challenge against the Thundering Herd.
The Herd’s defense has actually gotten worse as the season has progressed and they have allowed 36 points per game in the last three. That should get better with time to rest but with inexperienced kids in a bowl game and an interim coach the Bobcats have the edge. The Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC and the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Take the cats and surrender the small number.
Bowl Pick: Ohio -2.5
When Pittsburgh was up 21 points against Cincinnati in the game last week that would decide the Big East Championship they have envisioned a much bigger bowl game then the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Then the defense collapsed and the Bearcats won the Big East crown and are playing Florida in a BCS Bowl game. The Panthers will have to settle for a trip to Charlotte where they will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
For the Tar Heels this trip to Charlotte is a welcomed one. They also struggled down the stretch but will have a home field advantage and play here for the second time in two years. Last year they sold out this stadium as they played Boston College and had an edge in the crowd. Although Pittsburgh travels well they should have it again this year against the Panthers.
While Carolina has an excellent defense they have big problems on offense and at times if the deep threat is eliminated can have trouble moving the ball at all. The Heels are off a game where they passed very well but that is not a good thing in this spot. The Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and they are 4-0 ATS in the last four games after a straight up loss. The Panthers still have plenty to look forward to as they can win ten games this season. Dion Lewis is a beast in the backfield and will be too much for the Tar Heels to handle as the Panthers win in Charlotte
Meineke Car Care Bowl Pick: Pittsburgh -3
USC has come a long way this season, and not in a good direction. They started off the year ranked high in the polls and had National Championship aspirations. That soon changed to BCS bowl aspirations after an upset loss to Washington. After a few more stunning blowouts especially in a loss to Stanford, the Trojans find themselves in the Emerald Bowl.
For Boston College they had wins on the season and were 6-1 at home but they never really managed to get that signature win. In all of the high profile games that always seemed to come up short losing to Florida St and Notre Dame, two proud franchises that were very beatable. The road record was not great so getting the Emerald Bowl was a good pull for the Eagles and can now get some serious momentum for next year if they pull off the upset.
The Trojans don’t want to be here. Pete Carroll will say all the right things and the Trojans are the better team but this game means nothing to them. Even if they blow out the Eagles they will not be able to get into the top of the BCS controversy. The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles on the other hand find themselves in a good spots for this game. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog. This is too many points for the disappointing Trojans to try and cover.
Emerald Bowl Pick: Boston College +9
Fairway Jay
Best Bet: USC -8
Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Marshall +3
The Ohio Bobcats are getting plenty of respect in the marketplace despite playing
a much weaker schedule than their opponent. Ohio’s defense was opportunistic
and forced a bunch of turnovers this year but their overall numbers were mediocre.
They finished in the middle of the pack in total yardage allowed in a down year offensively
for the MAC. This is a team that was outgained in three of their final four
games. While Marshall’s offense isn’t exactly explosive I think they have the type of
mentality and strong ground game to excel in this matchup. The big boost of getting
star RB Darius Marshall back on the field is going to pay great dividends. Marshall
led the team in rushing this season (5.1 ypc) and topped 1,000 yards despite
missing the final two games. We also get a little motivational boost with Marshall
naming former WVU and Florida assistant “Doc” Holliday as its new head coach.
No doubt his players will be looking to impress rather than treating this as just
a vacation. Finally, fading MAC teams in bowl games has proven a sound strategy
over the last few years with horrific marks of 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS since 2006.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Marshall over Ohio U by 1
With the United States car industry struggling to fi ght its way out of
the toilet, the former Motor City Bowl decided to downplay Detroit’s
connection to automobile assembly lines and crawl into bed with a pizza
company instead. That decision parallels our own ‘perception versus
reality’ approach to this game. The majority of stats and information
available to sports fans portray Ohio University as owning all the edges
while ‘Ol’ Reliable’ (our database) points us toward the underdog
Herd. Ohio HC Frank Solich has built the Bobcats into one of the more
consistent programs in his league, leading the team to its second MAC
East title in the past four seasons. A win for the Bobbies here would not
only tie a school record by giving them 10 wins on the year, it would
also mark the fi rst postseason win in the program’s history. In addition,
Ohio is riding a current 8-2 ATS streak thanks largely to a defense that
forced a nation-leading 36 turnovers in 2009. By comparison, Marshall
appears to be in shambles: the 6-6 Herd looks more Blundering than
Thundering, losing four of their last fi ve games outright to close the
regular season. Worst of all, a 52-21 annihilation by UTEP in the Herd’s
fi nale was a sorrowful sendoff for Mark Snyder. And even though
the school moved quickly to hire West Virginia assistant John “Doc”
Holliday as his replacement, ‘interim coach’ Rick Minter will bear
the responsibility of leading the team here. Now for the good stuff.
Marshall owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in bowl games and 6-6 bowlers
off a loss are a wallet-fi lling 12-3 ATS. MAC bowl participants aren’t
quite as fortunate, logging a dismal 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS mark recently
and the Bobcats have been tied to the whipping post in their series with
Marshall, going 1-7 SU in the last eight meetings. The return of twotime
1,000 yard rusher Darius Marshall (missed the last two games with
an ankle sprain) and several key offensive linemen that were slowed
by late-season injuries means the Herd will be fi red up and ready to
rumble with one of their oldest rivals (schools are just 90 miles apart).
The presence of Minter, a former head coach at Cincinnati, should
further energize a Marshall squad that faced seven bowl-eligible teams
in 2009. Both outfi ts sport similar green color schemes but only one will
head home with the real ‘green’ at the conclusion of this one. With the
Herd making its 8th bowl appearance since moving to the FBS in 1997,
we’ll Man-up with Marshall today.
N Carolina over Pittsburgh by 3
Both teams enter this game embarrassed, angry and ready to do some
serious hitting. North Carolina heads to Charlotte for what basically
amounts to a home game after dropping its third straight meeting with
hated rival NC State, a 28-27 loss that tarnished a four-game win streak
including wins over Miami Fla, Virginia Tech and Boston College. But
Pittsburgh’s season-ending losses were devastating as the Panthers played
their way right out of a BCS bowl bid. A 3-point loss at West Virginia in
the Backyard Brawl was followed by a 45-44 home loss to Cincinnati for
the Big East title, a game where the Bearcats roared back from a 21-point
defi cit and capitalized on a botched extra point by Pitt. Panthers coach
Dave Wannstedt tried to shake off the disappointment of being relegated
to a mid-tier bowl by stating, “Our program is excited to play another
football game” but building up his defl ated team will be a huge task. “It
almost feels like throwing the season away,” said senior DL Gus Mustakas
about the loss to Cincy. “You go so far and you come so close… it really
hurts, bad.” Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they own one of the nation’s
premier running backs in Dion Lewis, who parlayed a rare combination
of speed and power into 1,640 yards rushing, 3rd best in the country. But
Lewis will be tested by a rugged Tar Heel defense that allowed just 93
rush yards per game and picked off 19 passes on the season. Our trip to
the ATS archives yielded a surprisingly one-sided cache of information –
all pointing towards North Carolina. For openers, ACC bowlers are 13-3
ATS versus Big East opposition, including 5-0 ATS off a loss. ACC bowl
dogs are also 35-18-2 ATS, including 11-0 ATS the last 11 as dogs off a
loss, and 6-0 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points against the Big East. UNC
coach Butch Davis owns a solid 12-3 ATS record versus Big East foes off
a SU and ATS loss while Wannstedt counters with a paltry 14-17 SU and
12-19 ATS mark versus .666 or greater competition. Sure, the Panthers
will be out to make amends from last year’s mistake-fi lled 3-0 bowl loss to
Oregon State but with poor-traveling Pittsburgh expected to bring only
a token contingent of fans to this game, we’re not interested in laying
points in an obvious coaching mismatch. In what should be a close one
(Pitt’s three losses came by a total of just 11 points), Carolina prevails to
post its best SU record of the decade.
Usc over Boston College by 6
Every bowl season, we hear about matchups where one team is overjoyed
to be playing while its opponent feels just the opposite – and this game
looks to be 2009’s most obvious example of that phenomenon. Both
teams enter with identical 8-4 records but Boston College’s season has
been viewed as a success while Southern Cal fans can only see a year of
underachieving disappointment. And why not? After storming its way to
seven straight Pac-10 titles and BCS bowl appearances, the Trojans’ dynasty
crumbled and USC fell out of the AP Top 25 for the fi rst time in eight years.
Freshman QB Matt Barkley couldn’t get the job done, fi nishing with a TDINT
ratio of 13-to-12 compared to 34-to-10 the previous season under Mark
Sanchez. And the normally dominant defensive unit didn’t recover from
the loss of eight starters, often playing with a glaring lack of emotion and
intensity. BC started its own freshman QB in David Shinskie but the Eagles
rallied to reach their 11th consecutive bowl game after being picked to
fi nish near the bottom of the ACC by preseason pundits. A stop unit that
fi nished 18th in scoring defense and 23rd in overall defense should be able
to hold its own against a sputtering USC offense that failed to top the
21-point mark in four of its last fi ve games (three SU losses, including two
at the Coliseum). Much like the UNC-Pittsburgh game previously outlined,
the ACC representative has been a good bet to ring the register. ACC bowl
dogs are now 35-18-2 ATS overall and Boston College has won eight of its
last nine bowls outright. Even better, the Eagles are featured in this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2 where they’re an amazing 41-4 SU against
non-conference foes – with no loss coming by more than four points! Don’t
be swayed by USC head coach Pete Carroll’s guarantee that “we’re going
to play this game like it’s the national championship game.” The hard truth
is the Trojans were 30-5 ‘In The Stats’ versus fellow bowlers the previous
fi ve years – but were only 3-4 ITS this season. Though the two schools have
already signed to play a two-game series in 2013-14, we like the hard-trying
visitors from Beantown to cash in today’s ‘preview’ bout.