Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State/ TCU Under 40.5: This game really has the feel of an old fashioned Big 10 defensive battle. Offensively the Spartans are very weak this year as they are 90th overall and 109th in scoring (20.9 ppg), but it is not their offense that has got them in a bowl game, but their defense, The Spartan defense comes in ranked 4th in the nation overall, 8th vs the pass, 8th vs the run and 9th in points allowed (16.3 ppg). This is a very balanced defense and they needed to be as their offense just has no punch. TCU this year was in the offensive minded Big 12 this year, so their offensive numbers are up there at 29.3 ppg and 393 ypg, but this team has very good defensive numbers for a team that played in a conference where teams started scoring the moment they get off the bus. TCU ranks 18th in total defense and 34th in points allowed (23.1 ppg). We Also note that TCU is 10th in the nation vs run, allowing 104 ypg and 3.3 ypg, and that is Michigan State’s primary method of moving the ball. Both teams will have trouble moving the ball on these defenses in a game that just has the feel of a 17-14 final.
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Syracuse/ West Virginia Over 71.5: With these two high powered offense and extra prep time I have to believe that both teams can score at least 35 points each in this one. The Cuse come in 20th in total offense (473.4 ypg) and they average 29.3 ppg. They are an uptempo team that averages 30 yards passing per game and should have little trouble moving the ball on a West Virginia defense that is 123rd in the nation in pass defense. The Mountaineers on offense have been very good all year ranking 8th in total offense (518.5 ypg), 4th in passing (340.7 ypg) and 7th in scoring (41.6 ppg). They are taking on a decent Cuse defense, but few teams have been able to stop the mountaineers this year and I don’t expect the Orangemen to do it either. Mountaineer games have averaged 79 ppg on the year and I expect at least that much with these two very good offenses on the field.
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POWER ANGLE PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy +14 over Arizona State: I like Navy's chances of keeping this one close, especially since the Sun Devils don't see the triple option at all. I know they have had extra prep time for it, but still it is a hard offense to prepare for if you've never seen it. This game also has a bunch of trends that favor the Midshippmen. ASU is just 2-10 ATS off a game in which 60+ points were scored, while favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off an upset win over conf. rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are just 11-34 ATS since. Let's also note that first year bowl coaches are 0-4 SU & ATS as double digit favs and Military teams are 25-10 ATS in bowl games since 1980. Navy is 3-2 SU & ATS vs bowl teams this year and have been outgainied by just 33 ypg in those games. Take out the 40 point opening loss to Notre Dame and Navy has outscored their other 4 bowl opponents by an average of 9.8 ppg. ASU has had a good year, but they did go 1-4 SU & ATS vs bowl teams and have been outgained by 75 ypg in those games. ASU has also been outscored by 9 ppg in those games, with their defense really struggling vs bowl teams, allowing 39 ppg and 466 ypg. ASU is 75th vs the run this year and will have all sorts of problems slowing down the 6th ranked ground attack in the nation. ASU will score some points but it won't be all that easy vs a Navy team that allows just 23 ppg on the year. Military teams do well in bowl games because they are disciplined and just don't make many mistakes. I feel that they will limit mistakes here, while their offense controls the clock and keeps this ASU offense off the field just enough to get the cover here. 2 POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY--- pre-New Year’s Day dogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game are 23-5 ATS in games against foes off back-to-back wins who do not average 200 rushing YPG... Military bowl teams are 17-2 ATS since 1980 if they are not off an ATS win in their last game.
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Idaho State vs. Washington St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Washington St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On such short rations offensively, not sure Idaho State can keep within earshot of Washington State late Saturday afternoon at Kenwick. The Big Sky Bengals, under new HC Bill Evans, are 1-9 SU and have been on the wrong end of some fearsome beatings, have scored under 50 points in 6 of their 10 games, and ony 5'11 sr. G Melvin Morgan (13.1 ppg) is averaging double-digit scoring. Host Cougs should be able to extend the margin behind F Brock Motum (19 ppg) and now-healthy G DaVonte Lacy (11.3 ppg; scored 19 in last Friday's win over Buffalo in Seattle).
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Oklahoma City vs. HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Oklahoma CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kevin Durant would explode for 40 points in his team's 111-105 OT win over the Mavericks last time out. Russell Westbrook had 16 points, 10 assists, six boards and three steals. Serge Ibaka chipped in 19 points and grabbed a season high 17 boards.
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Note that the Thunder are 10-3 ATS their last 13 when playing against a team with a winning record.
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The Rockets are coming off a 122-116 loss at San Antonio last night.
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James Harden had 33 points; Chandler Parsons chipped in 24; Jeremy Lin had 21.
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The loss snapped a five game win streak. The Rockets would run out of gas, and looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball, as the 41 points given up in the first quarter was the Spurs biggest quarter of the season.
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Note that Houston is in fact just 4-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest.
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The Thunder are playing extremely well on both sides of the ball, and it's almost impossible to believe that they'll come into this game complacent. They have a big opportunity to earn another win here against a tired Rockets team which is glaringly ineffective on the defensive side of the ball; consider a second look at the visitors in this matchup!
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Navy at Arizona St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy has made it to a bowl game, qualifying with an 8-4 SU record. But take a closer look and you'll see the Middies' record is misleading. Navy was blown out by Notre Dame and Penn State. They were shutout by San Jose State (12-0) and lost 41-31 to Troy. Navy was out-gained by an average of 406-292 by the Irish, Nittany Lions, and Spartans. They averaged just 3.43 yards per carry in those outings, while allowing a 74% completion rate, 8.85 yards passing per attempt, and 5 TDs with just 2 INTs. Navy allowed 597 yards and 32 first downs in the loss to Troy. If that's not enough, three key wins against Army, Indiana, and Air Force weren't so hot either. Navy averaged just 336.6 total yards in those wins, allowing an average of 447. They were a fortunate +7 in turnovers in the three wins, the difference maker in all three games. Navy will face an Arizona State squad that out-gained the opposition 449.2 to 350.8 on average. And the Sun Devils ranked 21st, averaging 36.4 ppg. Taylor Kelly has played well since winning the QB battle before the season. Not only has he passed for more than 27-hundred yards, but he has three RBs who combined to run for 1,532 yards on nearly 5 yards per carry. And the seven receivers with double-figures in receptions all average over 10 yards per catch. Six receivers have multiple TD receptions this season. That's an awful lot of offensive weaponry for Navy to deal with - and they haven't fared well in step-up games, as mentioned above. Arizona State is in a solid 34-11 ATS spot playing on favorites of 10 1/2 to 21 points, provided the favorite is off a SU conference win as an underdog - and both teams own +.500 records. Meanwhile, Navy has dropped four in a row ATS. My final note is an important one. When Todd Graham was at Tulsa, his team was not a fun draw in bowl action. He coached bowl wins over Bowling Green, Ball State, and Hawaii, winning by an average score of 57-18! I'm recommending a play on Arizona State in Saturday's Fight Hunger Bowl.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Navy Midshipmen are one of the hottest teams in the country entering their bowl game. They have won seven of their last eight games overall for a very strong finish to the regular season. This run can be attributed to a change at quarterback, which has made a world of difference for this team.
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Freshman Keenan Reynolds took over in the Air Force game and led Navy to a 28-21 comeback victory in overtime. He has held on to the job ever since, and he gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback that teams really have to prepare even more for. Reynolds is completing 57.7 percent of his passes for 884 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 628 yards and 10 scores.
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This play falls into a system that is 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) – off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record.
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Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992. The Sun Devils are 1-9 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1992. Arizona State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 bowl games. Bet Navy Saturday.
Rob Vinciletti
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
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OKC fits a solid system that pertains to teams off a home favored win That scored 110 or more as a home favorite at -10 or higher, vs an opponent like Houston who is off a loss that broke a 5+ game win streak with no rest and still scored 100 or more as a road dog. These dejected home teams have not fared well and the Rockets fell short last night in San Antonio off a solid win streak. OKC is 10-3 straight up and ats vs winning teams and is 3-0 ats as a a road favorite from -3.5 to -6, They have also won 21 of 27 on the road when the total is 210 or more. Look for OKC To get the win and cover here tonight against Houston.
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Cal Santa Barbara at CS Fullerton
Pick: CS FullertonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the more underrated rivalries out west is the UC-Santa Barbara/Cal State Fullerton series. The Titans want this one, and they've scheduled a white-out to get the crowd fired up. They're also the better team this time around, and I expect a fairly comfortable win by the hosts. I'll spot the points with Fullerton.
Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU (-2) over Michigan StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State was one of the most disappointing teams in all of college football this season. The Spartans had high hopes and expected to contend for a Rose Bowl bid, but the offense failed the team big time, and it enters this game with a subpar 6-6 record. While the defense was outstanding, those impressive numbers came mostly against the plodding offenses in the Big 10. And the offense was downright miserable all season, averaging just 20 points per game. The TCU defense has been just as strong as Michigan State, especially when you consider it faced a potent list of Big 12 offenses. The Horned Frogs will have no problems shutting down this pedestrian Spartan attack and will make just enough big plays on offense here tonight to get away with the win and cover. Lay the short number.
JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Middies + 2 tds get after Asu today @ 4 pm.... Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.... let's fire on the 6th rated team in the country who pound teams on the ground.. How a'bout 276.4 ypg as they will keep these pass happy Wildcats O off the field. Middies do hold teams down... @ 22.7 points per game, ranking 31st in the country.. Power rated @ Zona State - 8.... here ..... Ariz Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games & with the Triple Option coming in we see 0-5.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rice +106 over Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Air Force offense has cracked 400 yards just once in the past seven games. However, they’ve also been a very banged-up group that will be healed considerably in time for this game. With QB Connor Dietz and RB Cody Getz healthy, the Falcons figure to do some scoreboard damage. Still, they also figure to make more mistakes with a group that has not really played together much this season because of aforementioned injuries. The Falcons could be a much-more rustier team than Rice.
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The Owls are a strong rushing squad (and passing) that will utilize that to keep their defense off the field. They have a huge special teams’ edge over AFU and carry a lot more momentum coming in. The Owls won their final four games, which included blowout wins over Southern Miss and SMU. They also played a tougher schedule than the Falcons and could win this one going away. We get the better team, in a favorable matchup, taking back a tag. Thanks for coming out.
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TCU -2 over Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Most people are suggesting this to be a very low scoring game. We’re in agreement to some degree but are much more confident in the Horned Frogs ability to move the chains than the Spartans. Defensively, we’re suggesting the Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s best and should have little trouble shutting down these Spartans. MSU played a schedule of grind-it-out teams in the Big-10 and as a result, its defensive numbers are somewhat skewed.
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The Horned Frogs played a schedule they featured some of the nation’s most prolific offenses. They closed out the season with games against Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, K-State, Texas and Oklahoma. That they allowed an average of 23 points against after playing that group is simply incredible. TCU has better playmakers, a better defense and this they’re as hungry as any bowl team this year. Spot the cheap price.
Wunderdog
UNLV at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina -2
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are off to an 11-1 start and are ranked No. 17 in the country. They bring with them a nine-game winning streak, and will be making their first appearance ever in Chapel Hill - not an easy venue for any team, let alone one that has never played here. UNLV knocked off the Tar Heels last season when Carolina was ranked No. 1, so North Carolina will have an edge in this game, and will be out for redemption. The Tar Heels are green, talented, and growing. They have won four out of their last five, and young teams are generally more at ease at home. This has been a chamber of horrors for visiting teams that aren't in the ACC as North Carolina has won 62 straight at the Dean Center, with the last loss over seven years ago. The Rebels know they can't let this one turn into a track meet or they are going to frenzy the crowd and play into Carolina's strength. UNLV just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 on the road. Play this one on North Carolina.
Red Dog Sports
Fairfield vs. Old Dominion
Play: Over 124
Look for the over tonight in the Fairfield at ODU game. The Monarchs are not great defensively as they have been in recent years. They lack a stopper like Kent Bazemore. They have played overs at home as games with VCU (153 points), UTSA (149) and Morgan State (133) have gone over what we see today. Fairfield has played high scoring games with Lehigh and Depaul, a game that ended in the 150's.
Joseph D'Amico
Oregon State vs. Texas
Play: Texas
Texas has a ton of post-season experience and that will be a huge factor here. They have played and dealt with Bowl pressure time and time again. Not to mention, that this game is being played in the backyard. Both squads finished the season on low notes. The Beavers strength is their passing game. But the Longhorns have a hell of a secondary and will contain the long ball here. UT will throw as many as 5 DBs at OSU's QB, Mannion and allow their speedy LB corps to flush him out of the pocket an make mistakes. This will be a close one so take the points with Texas here.
Kelso
Valparaiso at Murray State
Pick: Murray State
Murray State returns home off a 77-68 loss at Dayton and is in major positive bounce-back form for this game. The Racers were leading that game late but were done in by a 12-2 Dayton run—a loss that snapped a 16-game road winning streak. Murray State’s only other loss this season came against powerful Colorado. There is no question Valparaiso will come to play but the Crusaders have no answer to Murray State’s All-American senior guard Isaiah Canaan, the nation’s 10th leading scorer with an average of 20.9 points per game, or to 6-7 senior forward Ed Daniel (16.2 points, 10.9 rebounds per game)—and the home-court bias at Murray is another powerful edge.
SPORTS WAGERS
GOLDEN STATE -3 over Boston
Not really sure why the Celtics continue to get this much credit but as long as they are, we’ll continue to fade this guest when warranted. The C’s were beat up by the Clippers on Thursday by 29 points. That was Boston’s seventh road loss in its last eight games and nothing has changed. The Celtics offense continues to struggle, its defense is weaker than it’s been in years, their bench is average at best and yet they’re getting just three points against one of the NBA’s best.
The Warriors continue to turn heads and it’s no fluke. Two nights after winning 94-83 at Utah, Golden State beat Philadelphia 96-89 to improve to 13-4 over its last 17 games. They were a 5½ point choice over Philly last night and 2½ points less here. That’s reason enough right there to back them here. Add a little extra motivation for the Warriors, as they have not beaten the Celtics since ’09 and for the first time in a long time, they’re now vastly superior.
Nuggets/Grizz under 194½
This one sets up perfectly to go under this inflated number. The Grizzlies have gone over in its past two while the Nuggets have gone over the total in three of its last four, including that X-Mas day game that was heavily bet over, resulting in plenty of cashed tickets. However, Denver will play its fourth game in five night and tail-end of back-to-backs after a 106-85 win in Dallas last night. They will now play the Association’s most physical team.
Memphis has dropped two in a row and both games went over the total. Expect this team to slow things down to a crawl here because that’s how they win games. The Grizzlies strength is defense and rebounding. They will get back to that here against an exhausted visitor that isn’t likely to be in a run and gun mood either.