SPORTS WAGERS
Yushin Okami -108 over Alan Belcher
Two fighters seemingly going in opposite directions. Okami (28-7) has not appeared to be the same fighter since losing to Anderson Silva at UFC Rio. He suffered another defeat in his next fight after that, getting knocked out by Tim Boetsch. However, he is coming off of a knockout victory of his own against Buddy Roberts in his latest fight. We trust this tune up victory will be enough to get him back on the right track.
Alan Belcher (17-5) enters this fight the winner of four straight. While he has looked good and winning four in a row is no easy feat, Okami is a level above the recent competition he has defeated. These two previously met years ago at UFC 62 where Okami emerged the victor. While Belcher has definitely improved since then, stylistically Okami is just a bad matchup for him. As one of the bigger fighters in the middleweight division, Okami negates the usual size advantage that Belcher has. Because of this, Okami will be able to use his superior wrestling to control the fight and grind out a victory.
Jamie Varner +110 over Melvin Guillard
This fight was originally scheduled for The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale but was cancelled due to Varner having health issues. Two fighters with seemingly similar fighting styles and career paths square off in what should be an exciting lightweight fight. Throughout their careers, both fighters have been plagued by inconsistencies as well as questions about their desire and focus. Both have the opportunity to prove their detractors wrong on Saturday night. The former WEC champion Varner (20-7-1-2 No Contests) has come back from the depths of near retirement and salvaged his career by going 1-1 this year including a knockout victory over renowned prospect Edson Barboza. Taking his last fight on short notice, Varner put on a potential fight of the year performance against Joe Lauzon before succumbing to a triangle choke. Despite the loss it is clear that Varner's heart is back into fighting, as he is displaying the form that made him a champion.
Guillard (47-12-3-1 No Contest) is an explosive striker with good wrestling. When Guillard is on, he looks unbeatable, when he is off his game he often loses in stunning fashion. The question in all his fights is which Melvin Guillard will show up? Like Varner, Guillard comes into this fight off of a loss and has lost three of his last four fights overall. Recovered from his illness, we trust that the crafty Varner will be able to keep distance and withstand as well as counter Guillard's striking. Both fighters are about equal in terms of wrestling with a slight advantage to Guillard. However should the fight go to the ground, Varner has the edge, as Guillard has proven to be submission prone.
Joe Gavazzi
Louisville -8
What goes around comes around….Now it is Pitino who has his Cards at the top of the polls at 11-1 SU, on a six game win streak. Though Dieng will not be available to teach Nerlens another lesson, Louisville has barely skipped a beat in his absence. For motivation look no further than a pair of Kentucky wins in this series by nearly identical scores of 69-62 and 69-61, the latter in the NCAA tournament. Pitino's backcourt led by PG Siva and Russ Smith are the dominant forces that drive numerous turnovers from this year's Kentucky edition of Diaper Dandies. Never easy to lay points against Calipari but this certainly looks like the spot.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky/ Louisville Under 134.5: This is an UNDER series as 10 of the last 11 between these teams have gone Under the total including the last 4. Thew Under is also 17-6-3 in Kentucky's last 26 road games and 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs the Big East. Both of these offenses put up 78 ppg, but it's the defenses that really drive these teams. Louisville comes in allowing just 55.5 ppg on 39% shooting, while at home they have allowed just 52 ppg on 35.9% shooting. Kentucky has played one true road game this year and this young team put up just 50 points at Notre Dame. They will struggle to score in this one as well. Kentucky has also played good defense this year, allowing 61.1 ppg on 37.7% shooting. They are getting better at that end of the floor as the season goes on, having allowed just 54 ppg on 34.2% shooting in their last 5 games. I expect both teams to struggle to score, as this game should be played in the 120's.
Scott Delaney
On the heels of a perfect 3-0 day - hitting a 25 Dime Bowl Winner on Minnesota, 5 Dime Pay-After on Iona and a Free winner on Utah Valley - free pick run is now at 62-35-2 and I look to improve that mark with an easy Bowl Winner on Navy plus the points against Arizona State in the Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.
Navy earned its trip to the Bay Area by posting an 8-4 record this season, including wins over Air Force, Indiana and Army. The Midshipmen are not on the same level as the nation's top teams - they lost to top-ranked Notre Dame 50-10 - but they will appear in a bowl game for the fourth time in Ken Niumatalolo's five seasons as head coach.
Normally known just its rushing prowess, the Middies actually boast a very talented quarterback in Keenan Reynolds, who took over midway through his freshman season to become the first Navy signal-caller to win his first four starts since Bob Powers won six straight in 1979.
Reynolds is 6-1 as a starter, completing 58 percent of his throws with eight touchdown strikes versus just one interception. To his credit, he's also has rushed for 628 yards and 10 touchdowns. The dual threat is going to be tough for the Sun Devils to defend in this game.
Actually, there are plenty of weapons on this team, as the Middies have had 17 players score touchdowns this season - tied for fifth most in the country. And make note, Navy tends to get up for its better competition, as it's won 19 games against schools from a BCS conference - the most by a non-BCS school.
Checking the betting numbers, Navy is in on ATS win streaks of 11-5 against winning teams and 5-2 in bowl games. On the other hand, the Devils are on ATS slides of 1-4 against winning teams, 1-6 in December and 0-4 in bowl games.
Take the Middies.
3♦ NAVY
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is 149-124-3, and tonight my freebie is on the Over in the TCU/Michigan State game. While the key matchup is perceived to be TCU's staunch rushing defense against Michigan State running back Le'Veon Bell - a matchup that would indicate a time-consuming, low-scoring football game - I think we're going to see both teams light up the friendly skies.
This game has UNDER written all over it, and that's the first thing that threw a red flag up for me, as I felt it's one of those situations that look 'too good to be true.' I mean, TCU has stayed under in three straight, while the Spartans have stayed low in five of six.
Michigan State, however, is on a 4-1 over run on neutral fields. And I believe it'll be the team dictating the pace in this one. After all, Sparty will want to force TCU into unfamiliar territory, which is a back-and-forth, scoring adventure. MSU coach Mark Dantonio knows how to prepare for a big game, and will have his troops ready to score.
On the other hand, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has stepped up for regular starter Casey Pachall, who was suspended after being arrested on drunken driving charges and later left the program. Boykin, a redshirt freshman, threw three interceptions in his first game, but followed up with a four-touchdown performance against Baylor, and eventually threw for more than 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns.
I am not endorsing either side, but I will count on the Over.
2♦ OVER Tcu/Michigan State
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Navy Midshipmen to cover the big number against Arizona State.
These double digit favorites simply aren't covering the number. Texas Tech didn't even come close to covering the 13 last night. Fresno State? Please!!! They got run out of the building.
And I don't see it happening today.
It's always funny to watch these Pac 12 teams play the academies and try to stop that triple option attack. Some of the better schools from the bigger conferences, but since the Pac 12 doesn't really play defense, I see Todd Graham's bunch having trouble with it.
After starting the season strong at 5-1, Arizona State would drop four in a row before winning their final game against rival Arizona, 41-34.
Navy, on the other hand, ended its strange season with a 17-13 win over rival Army in a game they should have probably blown out their opponent. But then again, only the academies know how to stop the triple option because they see it every day in practice... so I guess it wasn't that surprising after all.
What WAS surprising is the fact that Navy was able to win seven of their last eight games on the schedule. It looked bad early in the season when they opened the season with a 50-10 loss to Notre Dame, but since then they have buckled down the defense and figured out how to get a little consistency out of the passing game.
But they might not need to throw. Four of Arizona State's final six opponents rushed for more than 200 yards. The Midshipmen rank sixth in the nation in rushing yards per game with just under 276 yards per game.
While I expect Arizona State to find a way to win, I think Navy will hang tough and stay within the 14.
Take Navy as your free play of the day.
3♦ NAVY
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie comes in the Valero Alamo Bowl, as I side with the Oregon State Beavers to cover the number against the Texas Longhorns.
Do you find it strange Texas is playing in-state and is listed as the underdog in this game?
I sure don't, as I think this Texas team is not very good. The Longhorns dropped their last pair of games to close the season, including a rather shocking home loss to TCU in a game they were favored by a touchdown.
Texas also failed in two of their three tries this year when listed as the underdog, this a season after they went 1-4 in the underdog role in 2011. Throw in Mack Brown's less-than-impressive 4-7 spread mark in bowl games their last 11, and it becomes clear that backing this Texas team is just not a very smart idea.
The Longhorns are also dealing with their QB Case McCoy and LB Jordan Hicks being sent home for a possible sexual assault allegation.
Oregon State returns to bowl play a season after they won just three games straight up a season ago. Mike Riley has gone a money-making 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in bowl games since the '03 season, so it is clear Riley knows how to get his team ready to play in these tricky holiday contests.
Expect the Beavers defense to make the stops against a Texas offense that sometimes sputters when trying to find the end-zone.
Take the Beavers.
3♦ OREGON STATE
Chris Jordan
Now on to my free play, as I head into the Alamodome, and look at the Pac 12's Oregon State against Big 12-entry Texas in what should be an upbeat, entertaining football game.
Perhaps I could give the Longhorns a bit more respect if they didn’t have to deal with the mental aspect of suspensions to quarterback Case McCoy and linebacker Jordan Hicks. In one fell swoop, you could almost feel the deflation of the Longhorns upon that announcement. Quite frankly, I don't see Texas being able to overcome inconsistent quarterback David Ash, and if he can't cut it, punter Alex King coming in off the bench.
Point blank, things are looking gloomy for Texas.
I'm much more intrigued by Oregon State quarterback Cody Vaz, who has looked impressive down the home stretch of his junior campaign. Vaz completed 60 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns with just one interception, and nearly led the Beavers to an upset of Stanford in OSU's last road game in the regular season.
The Beavers employ a system that could very well trip up Texas' schematics, as they like to huddle up, they won’t push the tempo and they use a methodical approach in getting the ball down field. On the other side of the ball, the Beavers feature the Pac-12’s fourth-ranked defense, which has allowed a mere 130.5 yards a game.
Overall, Oregon State ranked among the top 40 teams nationally in terms of both total offense (442.7 ypg.) and scoring (33.0 ppg.)
Bottom line in this game, is the Beavers are far better suited for the postseason, and make note, are a much more explosive team than the Cal team they beat 62-14, and that beat this Texas program in the Holiday Bowl last year.
Take the Beavers boys; they're getting it done in the Alamo Bowl. And for the record, I am buying the half point off this point spread, no matter what the book is offering, whether it's 3, 3-1/2 or 4.
3♦ OREGON STATE
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Saturday comes in college football as I expect the points on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard to increase in a hurry in this West Virginia-Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl from the Bronx.
These former conference rivals meet again, and last year's meeting saw a combined 72-points and an Over in their October 2011 showdown at the Carrier Dome.
West Virginia did play Under the total in their final pair of games during the regular season, but their three games prior were all well Over the total, and they are playing a Syracuse team that I don't think knows how to stay Under a total.
The Orange enter this game on a 5-0-1 Over clip their last six games, and did go 7-3-1 Over the total in their lined games this season.
Look for the points to get cranking early in this one, and for former Big East rivals West Virginia and Syracuse to ring up an Over in this season's Pinstripe Bowl.
2♦ WEST VIRGINIA-SYRACUSE OVER
Anthony Redd
Navy won the game that mattered most this season, rallying to beat Army. So although the Middies have won seven of their last eight games under the direction of freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, they are NOT the play today in the Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, even though they're catching a couple of touchdowns against Arizona State.
The Army game was their Super Bowl, the biggest of big games. That was their season. Nothing else mattered. Period.
I know you're thinking "Arizona State won it's biggest game by beating Arizona," but that in-state rivalry doesn't compare to drama involving the Army-Navy game.
The Middies, as usual, are going to run over and over again (No. 6 ground attack - 276 ypg) into a soft Sun Devil line ranked No. 71 in rushing defense. But, Arizona State will counter with an offensive attack that the undersized Navy defenders simply won't be able to stop frequently enough.
Should Navy try to throw with Reynolds, the freshman signal-caller will feel the heat from a Sun Devil pass rush that generated 48 sacks (No. 2 in the country) this season.
Arizona State jumps on Navy earlier and pulls away late for the 3-TD win and cover to snap a three-game bowl losing streak.
2♦ ARIZONA STATE