Matt Fargo
Wyoming vs. Colorado State
Play: Wyoming -5½
The final big week before the bowls is here and Matt is ready for a HUGE Week 14! His Saturday Prowess has been on an ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE run as he is a BLISTERING 24-11 ATS (68.6%) the last 5 Saturdays! Join him for his Conference Championship Game of the Year that is backed by an OUTSTANDING 37-12 ATS (75.5%) Power Situation! Get on this GIANT MONSTER right away!
Wyoming has put together a great season as it is 7-4 and will secure third place all by itself in the Mountain West Conference with a win. The Cowboys are assured of matching their best record since joining the conference in 1999 so a win here gets them to 5-2 and would better their record of 5-3 set in 2006. A victory would also give them their first eight-win season since 1998 so there is a lot on the line this week so the 103rd edition of the Border War takes extra meaning.
It has been a dreadful season for Colorado St. which comes into this game with a 3-8 record and a loss here would make it three consecutive seasons with a 3-9 finish. The Rams are fortunate to have any wins against FBS opposition as they were outgained by New Mexico, one of the worst teams in the country, and won by just four points and also defeated Utah St. by a point in overtime thanks a late fumble by the Aggies and a missed two-point conversion. The Border War is big but they are not good.
Rams head coach Steve Fairchild is likely fighting for his job this week as a loss will likely show him the door but that is not certain yet. While he may be fighting for his job, the players may not be fighting for him as things have gone south quickly. A win here could salvage some respect but considering that the Rams are ranked 102nd in the country in scoring offense and 96th in scoring defense, talent-wise, they do not match up well at all against the Cowboys.
Both teams are expected to use freshman quarterbacks this week but there is a big difference. Colorado St. has Garrett Grayson who has started only the last two games because of an injury to Pete Thomas and he has looked every bit a freshman with inaccurate throws and happy feet in the pocket. On the other side, Cowboys freshman quarterback Brett Smith is 32nd in the nation in total offense, averaging 259.9 ypg. The only freshman with a better average is Oregon St.'s Sean Mannion.
Wyoming is coming off a loss against Boise St., which was expected, but it is in a great rebound spot here. Play on road teams that are coming off a conference loss by 21 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Colorado St. is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 40 or more points in its previous game while Wyoming is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game.
Bryan Power.
Auburn @ Seton Hall
PICK: Seton Hall -8.5
Not buying Auburn's 4-0 start at all. Their four wins have all come at home against the likes of McNeese State, Keenasaw State, Nicholls State and Ark-Pine Bluff. None of those are board teams. None of those weaklings shot better than 40% against the Tigers, which shouldn't be a surprise since none of them shoot better tha 41% for the season. Seton Hall has played a far more agressive early season sked w/ neutral court victories over Virginia Commonwealth and St. Joe's on its resume. The Pirates come in shooting 45% from the floor and have won the turnover battle in every game except one, a loss to Northwestern where they turned it over only 10 times. They've done an excellent job pressuring the ball, forcing an average of eight steals per game. Against a better schedule than Auburn, they are allowing just 65 PPG. Look for a blowout win tonight from "The Hall."
Vegas Experts
UCLA at Oregon
Play: Over
Oregon is going to easily win this matchup over UCLA but with them laying over 30 points, there is not much value with taking them against the spread. The Total shows much more value, taking over 65 points. Oregon could possible put this one over by themselves as they have averaged 48 points per game when playing at home and should have no problem scoring above average against a terrible UCLA defense who has struggled on the road, giving up an average of almost 40 points per game. Oregon has gone over the total in 5 of their 7 home games and has gone over in their last three straight matchups. Look for them to have a huge blowout win, sending the total way over the number.
Gridiron Gold Sheet
North Texas -15.5
The North Texas Mean Green look for their second win of the season as they square off with the La Sierra Golden Eagles of the NAIA in the LMU Centennial Classic. The Mean Green have lost to Texas Tech, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi State, and Texas. North Texas's only win came over St. Gregory's in its opener. North Texas held its own against some top competition as it only lost to Texas Tech by five points. The Golden Eagles are winless against non- Division I competition as their record stands at 0-6. Even more troubling than its 0-6 record is the fact that La Sierra has lost by double digits in every game this season. North Texas is coming way, way down in class in this matchup and should easily get a confidence boosting win. UNT is rightfully the overwhelming favorite in this one. The Mean Green are a much better team and this will be like the varsity playing the JV team.
Jim Feist
Fresno State vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -8
Fresno State (4-8 SU/6-5 ATS) has a bad defense, losing against Cal (36-21 loss) at a neutral site and at Nebraska (42-29 loss). The defense is really bad, allowing 36 ppg. That was the problem on Saturday again in a 27-24 loss at home to San Jose, allowing 424 yards (363 passing). It wasted a 449 yards night by the offense, though 3 turnovers. They’ve been giving up big plays all season, as in a 48-45 loss at New Mexico State allowing a TD pass with 1:50 left. The defense gave up 500 yards (367 passing) and wasted another strong game from the offense (495 yards). The Bulldogs are 10-39-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss. San Diego State (7-4) has a strong, balanced offense behind senior QB Ryan Lindley (20 TDs, 8 INTs), along with sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman (1,478 yards), and sophomore tight end Gavin Escobar. The Aztecs average 29 points and 187 yards rushing. Lindley has thrown touchdown passes in 20 of the last 21 games. The Aztecs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. WAC. Play San Diego State.
BANG THE BOOK
Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5)
Iowa State’s claim to fame this season was its thrilling 37-31 double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State as a 26.5-point home underdog, which all but ended the Cowboys national title hopes. Overall, the Cyclones are 6-5 both straight-up and against the spread.
Kansas State has been a very profitable team this season with a 9-2 record both SU and ATS. What makes this record even more impressive is the fact that the Wildcats were underdogs in eight of the 11 games. They are coming off a huge 17-13 win over Texas on Nov. 19 as 7.5-point road underdogs.
The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Kansas State. The Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games in the Big 12.
PICK: Kansas State 28 Iowa State 10
No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears (-2.5)
Texas bounced back from a stunning loss the Kansas State with a hard-fought 27-25 win over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Longhorns will look to complete the state-sweep behind a rushing attack that is averaging 211.3 yards a game.
Baylor received some good news this week as it appears that quarterback Robert Griffin III will be ready to go for Saturday’s game after getting hit in head in the Bears 66-42 romp over Texas Tech as 12-point home favorites last Saturday.
The road team in this series is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baylor. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record.
PICK: Texas 38 Baylor 35
No. 5 Virginia Tech Hokies (-7) vs. No. 20 Clemson Tigers
The 11-1 Hokies only blemish this season was a 23-3 loss to Clemson on Oct.1 as seven-point home favorites. They struggled to move the ball against the Tigers the first time around, but look for a much better effort from an offense that is averaging close to 200 yards a game on the ground.
In order for Clemson to pull-off the sweep, it will need a strong performance from quarterback Tajh, who has thrown for 3,338 yards and 28 touchdowns and running back Andre Ellington, who has 937 yards rushing and nine TD’s.
Virginia Tech is 3-8 ATS in its 11 games this season and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hokies are 5-1 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings between the two.
PICK: Virginia Tech 24 Clemson 21
Rob Vinciletti
Utah State vs. New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico State +14.5
The System in this game plays against road favorites from -10.5 to -14 off a home dog win. Long term they system has cashed 18 of 21 times. Utah St has not covered once the last 19 years as a road favorite in this range. New Mexico St has covered 5 of the last 6 in conference play. Utah St has already accepted a bowl bid and this game is a potential flat spot against a New Mexico St team that basically views this as their bowl game. Take the points here with New Mexico St.
Teddy Covers
Michigan St. @ Wisconsin
PICK: Over 54.5
The betting markets do weird things, like driving this total down from an opener of 55. The downward move is inexplicable to this bettor. Wisconsin averaged more than 44 points per game this year. Michigan State averaged more than 30. The first meeting between these two schools was a wild 37-31 shootout, a game that featured 41 first downs and well over 800 yards of total offense. Both teams had success in both facets of their offensive gameplan. Montee Ball ran for 6.4 yards per carry; LeVeon Bell gained 5.4 yards per carry. Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins combined for five touchdown passes. Six different receivers caught at least one pass longer than 20 yards. Wisconsin punted only twice on their 13 possessions.
The rematch is being played indoors on a fast track, without any sort of weather issues to worry about. The Badgers power offense works even better in a dome, and they’ve done nothing but up their tempo in recent weeks – they’ve averaged more than 40 points per game since that loss to the Spartans, despite playing three out of five on the road. With seven Overs in their last nine games, the markets have been lagging behind the Badgers current offensive form. Michigan State has hung 31+ in each of their last four games, part of a 67% run to the Over since their first meeting with the Badgers. Expect fireworks in Indy on Saturday Night! Take the Over.
Steve Janus
Iowa State +11
While Iowa State was unable to pull off another upset at Oklahoma last week, they gave the Sooners all they could handle on the road. The Cyclones are playing with a ton of momentum right now after that huge win over Oklahoma State, and would love nothing more than to knock off another ranked team to finish the season.
Even though it will be hard for Iowa State to upset No. 11 Kansas State, I believe they will have no trouble covering the spread. The Wildcats simply don't blow teams out. Of their 9 wins this year, 7 have been decided by a touchdown or less.
In order for Iowa State to cover this spread they have to be able to score touchdowns, and I think there is a very good chance they do just that. The Cyclones have found new life offensively under freshman quarterback Jared Barnett, and I expect Barnett and the Cyclones to be able to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that ranks 107th in the country against the pass, allowing 277.7 ypg.
Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. BET THE CYCLONES +11!
Chip Chirimbes
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -9½
Michigan State who has beaten Wisconsin three of the last four meetings just can't get any respect in this Big-Ten Title game as they are virtually double-digit underdogs to a team that they have already defeated this season. Here is a point spread fact that will keep me and you hopefully away form State as they are 0-19 straight-up and 6-12-1 ATS when a dog of eight of more points under coach Dantonio. Wisconsin under coach Bielema is 8-2 straight-up and against the points when playing for revenge off a straight-up win.
James Patrick Sports
Georgia vs. LSU
LSU is getting the job done on defense, ranking second in the nation in scoring defense (10.6 PPG) and leading all FBS teams with a (+19) turnover margin for the season. Tigers have outscored their opponents (38) to (11) this year, including (35) to (8) in the SEC. And they have played arguably the nation’s toughest schedule, beating seven ranked teams. Both schools boast excellent defenses, as LSU ranks second in the country in total defense (248 YPG), while Georgia places fifth in yardage (271 YPG) and 10th in points (17.8 PPG). But the Tigers have the best secondary in the country, allowing only six touchdown passes all season. The LSU Tigers are (6-0) ATS in their last (6) conference games, (8-1) ATS in their last (9) games after allowing less than (20) points in their previous game and (7-1-1) ATS in their last (9) games in December. The Georgia Bulldogs are (0-6) ATS in their last (6) games as an underdog. In Saturday College Football action, Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is on LSU Tigers to remain perfect entering the National Championship Game.
Scott Spreitzer
North Carolina at Kentucky
Prediction: Over
Last Saturday night, the Tar Heels were about as flat as I have seen them during the Roy Williams era. UNLV took it to the Heels over the final 20 minutes, attacking every chance they got. But the main reason UNLV was able to knock off the then #1 team in the land was 3-point success. The Runnin' Rebels made 13 treys on 32 tries. UNC "righted" the ship last time out against a tough and physical Wisconsin team. After a lot of traveling and the physical matchup with the Badgers, UNC is "rewarded" with a game against John Calipari's top-ranked Wildcats. But Kentucky, like the Heels, want to play an uptempo brand of basketball and that suits the Heels just fine. UNC is averaging 84 ppg, rank 21st in FG percentage, and make 41% of their 3-pointers. The problem is that UNC does not defend the arc well (119th against the trey) and Kentucky "cans" almost 40% of their 3-point attempts. The Wildcats have posted strong defensive numbers, but have faced just one quality opponent (Kansas) on the season. That game finished 7 points under the total thanks to 19 missed free throws by the 2 teams, combined. With both squads looking for a quick, high scoring tempo, we'll play the Over between UNC & Kentucky on Saturday.
John Ryan
North Carolina at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky
5* graded play on Kentucky as they host North Carolina in a huge game featuring two of the best programs in the nation. The calendar has not even flipped to 2012 and already we have game that gives us a glimpse of what maybe in store for the Final-4 in April. Kentucky is ranked No. 1 in the AP Top-25 poll and garnered 46 of the 65 possible first place votes. Right on their heels is a very good Ohio State team that received 17 first place votes. North Carolina is ranked fifth and received no first place votes. However, North Carolina was perched on top of the national rankings until getting knocked off by UNLV last week. Although just early in the season, the top teams are rising steadily in the national statistical rankings. Kentucky ranks 15th scoring 83.7 points per game, second getting 44.3 rebounds per game, 34th averaging 16.3 assists per game, 17th shooting 50% from the floor. North Carolina is a near clone to Kentucky on offense. The Tar Heels rank 14th scoring 84.0 points per game, seventh getting 42.3 rebounds per game, ninth getting 19.1 assists per game, and 21st making 49.3% of his shots. For those who like playing money lines than you will absolutely love this system that has gone 61-5 for 92.4% winners and has made 48.8 units since 2005. Play against dogs of +145 to +350 using the money line after a close win by three points or less and facing an opponent after scoring 80 points or more two straight games. The current line at -270 is attractive for this play and falls into the criteria of the aforementioned system. North Carolina is off a close win to Wisconsin 60-57 and failed to cover the seven point line in a game they trailed at the half. The system requires that the play-on team to have scored 80 or more points in two straight games. Kentucky has scored 80 or more points in three straight games and I believe they will score 80 or more today. There are numerous game situations working against North Carolina and for Kentucky in this matchup. North Carolina is just 10-25 ATS losing 17.5 units per on unit wagered after one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Kentucky is a solid 14-4 ATS making 9.6 units per one unit wagered off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons. In Kentuckys last game they dominated St. Johns 81-59, but failed to cover the 24 point line. Roy Williams finds himself in a rough spot noting that since he has been the Tar Heels coach he is just 15-25 ATS losing 12.5 units per on unit wagered in road games versus very good defensive teams allowing opponents to make less than 39% of their shots. Caliper is a solid 14-4 ATS making 9.6 units per on unit wagered off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since being the head coach of the Wildcats; 32-14 ATS making 16.6 units per on unit wagered in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games in all games he has coached since 1997; 15-4 ATS making 10.6 units per on unit wagered in home games after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1997. North Carolina shoots the ball very well and Caliper has done an excellent job at preparing his defense to contain those types of teams. He has posted an impressive 8-1 ATS making 6.9 units facing very good shooting teams making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of Kentucky.
John Ryan
Texas at Baylor
Play: Texas
5* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in Big-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The media hype started weeks ago about Baylors quarterback Robert Griffins Heisman Trophy campaign and a strong performance against the Big-12s best defensive unit could sway many undecided voters. This is the last game before the Trophy is awarded December 10 and last week performances have directly affected the Heisman winner. Griffins 34 touch down passes ranks fifth nationally and his 334 passing yards per game rank sixth. More impressive is that he is one of four players to ever thrown for more than 9000 passing yards and run for more than 2000 yards in a collegiate career. The Longhorn defensive unit has truly had one bad game and that was in a 55-17 loss tot he Oklahoma Sooners October 8. First-year defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has his defense playing their best right now and I do believe they have the speed and athleticism to contain Griffin. The Texas defense leads the Big-12 in scoring defense, rushing defense, passing defense, and by default total defensive yards allowed. The Texas Longhorns rank 93rd in the FBS national rankings gaining 178.8 passing yards per game, 20th gaining 211.3 rushing yards per game, 36th allowing 202 passing yards per game, seventh allowing 96 rushing yards per game, and 32nd allowing 21.0 points per game. The Baylor Bears rank 5thin the FBS national rankings gaining 360 passing yards per game, 17th gaining 217.3 rushing yards per game, 104th allowing 172 passing yards per game, 96th allowing 199 rushing yards per game, and 111th allowing 36.7 points per game. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. The College Football Odds page on SBR show that this game opened with Baylor favored by 2 points and betting support on Baylor has pushed the price to three points at spattering of shops. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-17 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play against any team that is an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game and now facing a strong defensive team allowing 16 to 21 points per game and after seven regular season games have been played and after allowing 37 points or more last game. Of the 56 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 25 of them or 44%, have covered the spread by seven or more points. The key to this game is that the Texas defense is vastly better than the Baylor defense both statistically and the game matchups. The battle of the line of scrimmage will be won convincingly by the Longhorns on both sides of the ball. The simulator shows a high probability exceeding 85% that the Longhorns will gain between 250 and 300 rushing yards. In past games where Baylor has allowed 250 to 300 rushing yards they have posted a 1-2 ATS mark this season, 1-5 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 8-22 ATS mark since 1992. Texas head coach Mack Brown is 6-0 ATS facing very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points per game as the coach of Texas; 40-25 ATS facing mistake prone teams that are penalized for 60 or more penalty yards per game. In 19 season, Texas has been installed as a road dog on just 22 occasions and they have posted a solid 16-6 ATS dressed in this role. Baylor has not done well against defenses like the Longhorns noting that they are 8-21 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game since 1992; 6-17 ATS in home games when facing solid defensive teams allowing 4.5 or less yards per play since 1992. Take Texas as a 5* graded play.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Iowa State +11
Iowa State is playing with a ton of confidence right now. It has won 3 of its last 4 games and has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5. After shocking a then-undefeated Oklahoma State team, many expected the Cyclones to get their doors blown off by Oklahoma. Instead, they hanged tough, on the road no less, for a 20-point loss to easily cover the 28.5-point spread. To put this in perspective, K-State was handed a 41-point loss at home by the Sooners. This series has been extremely competitive in recent years. Iowa State has either won or lost by no more than 8 points in each of the last 4 meetings and 6 of the last 7. In addition, plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning record on the season and playing another winning team, provided they are off an upset win on the road, are 28-8 ATS since 1992. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 9.2 points. We'll take the points as Iowa State keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.