Steve Merril
Iowa State vs. Kansas State
Play: Iowa State +11
Kansas State is the most overrated team in the nation as the Wildcats are 9-2 SU/ATS this season, despite being out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.8 yards per play per game. The Wildcats have been winning mainly because of a +11 turnover margin. Overall, the 33.4 points per game they average is extremely misleading as Kansas State is averaging a weak 4.9 yards per play on offense (versus opponents that allow 5.5 yppl). They have been below average both rushing and throwing the ball, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and only 6.7 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 4.2 ypr and 7.1 ypp). Kansas State is due for a letdown today as they are coming off three straight-up underdog wins and are now installed as a double-digit home favorite. The Wildcats are also coming off a bye week which might disrupt their momentum. Iowa State is an underrated team that enters on a solid 4-1 ATS run which includes a pointspread cover versus Oklahoma last week and of course a huge outright win versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago as a +27 point underdog. The recent solid play by Iowa State coincides with the emergence of QB Jared Barnett who took over five games ago. Iowa State has a solid rushing offense that is averaging 178 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 4.1 ypr) and this strong ground attack should allow Iowa State to keep the game close today, especially if the weather becomes an issue as the forecast is calling for an 90% chance of showers.
Charlie Scott
Fresno State vs. San Diego State
Play: Under 60.5
Fresno St is un motivated with nothing to play for Today, but to finish the season. SDST will be able to run the ball & the clock tonight, while Rocky Long teams don't usually run up scores. SDST's defense has NOT allowed more than a TD per gm in the second half ALL season. SDST is 4-1 Under 60 their last 5 games.
Rocketman
So Mississippi vs. Houston
Play: Houston -13
Houston is 12-0 SU overall this year and Case Keenan leads them into the Conference USA Championship game. Houston is 10-2 ATS overall this year, 7-1 ATS against conference opponents, 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game and a perfect 6-0 ATS at home. Houston is 13-3 ATS last 3 years when playing at home. Houston is averaging 52.7 points per game overall this year and 53.8 points per game at home this season. Houston is 6-1 ATS at home vs Southern Miss since 1992. The Rocketman Line on this game is Houston by 21.96 giving us great value here with Houston and Case Keenan today! We'll recommend a small play on Houston today!
Rob Vinciletti
Utah State vs. New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico State +14.5
The System in this game plays against road favorites from -10.5 to -14 off a home dog win. Long term they system has cashed 18 of 21 times. Utah St has not covered once the last 19 years as a road favorite in this range. New Mexico St has covered 5 of the last 6 in conference play. Utah St has already accepted a bowl bid and this game is a potential flat spot against a New Mexico St team that basically views this as their bowl game. Take the points here with New Mexico St.
David Malinsky
Central Michigan @ Temple
Pick: Central Michigan +17.5
They are calling for an extreme “Degree of Dominance” for Temple in this setting, with the pointspread this high, and the total so low. And that is asking for too much for an Owl team lacking some key cogs in a game that will be played at a snail’s pace.
Temple has a chance to be very good, later. But without Michael Eric and Scootie Randall not only is the front-court paper-thin, but the entire main rotation shrinks to six players. That makes this even more of a setting in which Fran Dunphy would just like to see his team grind away and get the win, and that loss at Bowling Green on Sunday, when only six players reached double figures in minutes played, exposed their limitations. From Dunphy - “We are trying to play good defense without fouling. We need guys out there as long as possible.” When that is the mode, forcing tempo is out of the question.
Central Michigan has been playing outstanding defense. The Chippewas have no depth issues, and got a chance to develop quickly by taking a road trip that saw them win at Pepperdine, before going 2-1 in the Great Alaska Shootout. They are allowing just 32.5 percent shooting so far, and note that even in the loss to New Mexico State in Anchorage it was 32.2. That defense helps to turn this into an ugly grinder of a game, and makes the pointspread loom even larger.
Jack Jones
North Texas -5.5
First-year head coach Dan McCarney has done an excellent job at North Texas. This team has already overcome expectations by winning four games, and they have a chance for a fifth on Senior Day this Saturday. I fully expect them to win this game by at least a touchdown over hapless Middle Tennessee State.
The Blue Raiders have had a lost season. They are 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS on the year, and there's nothing that leads me to believe they will show up Saturday. They haven't shown up for their last five games. MTSU is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS during this stretch, losing all five by 13 points or more with an average loss of 23.2 points/game.
North Texas will want to win this one for their seniors. They have played their best football at home, going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS on home soil. This is a team that beat MTSU 23-17 on the road last year as a 10.5-point underdog, and they are clearly the better squad in 2011 with a lot more returning talent.
Derek Thompson has been solid at quarterback for the Mean Green, completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,736 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. They will certainly be looking to feed the ball to RB Lance Dunbar, who rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2009 and over 1,500 last season.
Dunbar has rushed for 802 yards and six touchdowns this year. He'll have an excellent chance of breaking the 1,000-yard mark for a third consecutive season against this soft MTSU run defense Saturday. The Blue Raiders are allowing 213 yards/game on the ground and 4.5/carry, ranking 99th in the country against the run.
MTSU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games when playing with 6 or less days rest, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. North Texas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play. The Mean Green are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet North Texas Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Texas Longhorns +3
Prior to last season's 8-point loss to Baylor, Texas had won 12 in a row in the series. Motivated by last year's loss, expect the Horns to continue their dominance over the Bears today. Baylor's Griffin is banged up after suffering a concussion last week, and now he faces perhaps the best defense he's seen all season. Texas ranks 9th in the nation in total defense with 297.5 yards allowed per game. The Longhorns struggled offensively against Missouri and K-State due to the losses of some key players but found a way to put 27 points on the board in a victory over Texas A&M last week. Texas should be able to put even more points up here against a Baylor defense that ranks among the worst in the nation. The Bears are 114th in total defense with 471.2 yards allowed per game and 111th in scoring defense with 36.7 points allowed per contest. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, and we'll take them in that role here.
Dave Price
1 Unit VA Tech -6.5
Like clockwork, VA Tech is once again playing its best football down the stretch, and I believe it's ready to avenge an earlier loss to a Clemson squad that limps in with 3 losses in its last 4 game. Under Beamer, the Hokies are an impressive 28-11 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. They've won these games by an average of 11.8 points. Take VA Tech.
SPORTS WAGERS
Southern Miss +13½ over HOUSTON
We're not completely sold on the turnaround of a Houston defense that had feasted on some really poor offenses prior to an impressive showing against previously undefeated Tulsa. That easy win over Tulsa combined with this “Greatest Show on Turf” offense has this number inflated. Once again, the Cougars are going to score points, as Case Keenum and company can’t be stopped. However, the visiting Eagles sport both the best rush attack and best overall defense the Cougars have seen this season and their offense can trade punches. The Golden Eagles sport the best rushing attack in the conference and the nations 26th best defense. They’ll use the run to keep the Cougars off the field while scoring on most of their drives. You’re absolutely paying a premium to wager on Houston. Not only can Southern Miss stay within this range, they can win this one outright. Play: #339 Southern Miss +13½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Texas +134 over BAYLOR
Robert Griffin III and his mates have had a field day in the Big-12 this season, gaining at least 480 yards on every opponent except Kansas State. This week, though, the Bears face the first shutdown defensive unit they've seen. Texas has the league's best defense, and it's not really close. The Longhorns have allowed fewer than two yards per carry during the past five games. The Baylor passing attack is outstanding, but the Bears have lost every game this season in which they were unable to rush for 3.5 yards per carry. The Texas front four can eliminate the threat of Terrance Ganaway, and once Baylor turns one-dimensional, up-and-coming coordinator Manny Diaz can blitz Griffin at will. If the common thread in Baylor's losses has been an inability to balance the pass-happy attack with a consistent rushing threat, Texas' wins have a similar theme. The Longhorns win when they can run. Texas is not a good offensive team, and the passing attack has been downright awful most of the season. But against the handful of porous rush defenses on the schedule, the Horns have had their way. Baylor hasn't stopped anybody from running save for Stephen F. Austin and an air-oriented Texas Tech squad down to its fifth-string back. Texas is seventh in the nation in time of possession despite some awful offensive showings against the better defenses on the schedule. This week Mack Brown's crew can fulfill both parts of the equation required to beat Baylor: move the chains on the ground to limit Griffin's possessions and get some stops on defense. Add in vastly superior special teams, and it looks like the wrong side is favored. Play: #321 Texas +134 (Risking 2 units).
OKLAHOMA STATE –3½ over Oklahoma
The Cowboys offense is a quick strike machine that puts up a ton of points and often finishes drives in less than five minutes. This allows opposing offenses plenty of possessions. The Oklahoma State defense has gotten a bad rap in part because of this phenomenon and in part because of coordinator Bill Young's bend-but-don't-break scheme that allows opponents to execute down the field and then relies on generating turnovers and red zone stands to keep them off the scoreboard. There's a third reason this defense is underrated and it’s simply that the Cowboys have won most of their games handily and have allowed much of their foes' yards and points in garbage time. Baylor, for example, trailed Oklahoma State 35-0 at halftime and 49-3 into the fourth quarter -- but the Bears' final stat sheet looked pretty good at 24 points and 622 yards. Oklahoma State has allowed more points and yards in the first half than the second only three times this season. This team ranks just 107th in total defense, but that's a weak metric that often doesn't tell the whole story. That's certainly the case with the Cowboys; this is a top-20 stop unit. The Cowboys slipped up at Iowa State, but this has been one of the most dominant teams in the nation and still has a do-over of last year's Bedlam battle in Stillwater to claim its first conference championship since the 1976 Big Eight title. Oklahoma limps into the game losing twice and having been outgained three times in its past five. The suddenly turnover-prone Sooners are getting torched by all decent passing teams and reeling from injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Everything about Oklahoma's season suggests that it's just not the Sooners' year. Even with the blemish at Ames, everything about Oklahoma State's recent rise to power and the season the Pokes have churned out suggests that it's theirs. This is the best team in school history and it's not going to blow this one. Play: #320 Oklahoma State –3½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
CLEMSON +7 over Virginia Tech
Clemson has been in a freefall the past few weeks and as a result, its stock has plummeted to a year low. With that free-fall comes a fantastic number against a Hokie squad that they buried back in Virginia Tech a couple of months ago. Clemson’s offense is still an extremely dangerous one when focused and we remain wholly unwilling to lay points with a banged-up Virginia Tech squad that has managed just one cover in nine tries as a touchdown-plus favorite. Clemson can win this game outright and probably will. Play: #344 Clemson +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Michigan State +9½ over Wisconsin
We bet the Spartans to win the Big-10 Championship at odds of 10-1 (see future bets) so we’re a little reluctant to play them here because of that. However, these points are just too juicy to pass up in a game the Spartans can win outright, just like they did back in East Lansing on Oct 22. Additionally, MSU will use this insulting line as a huge motivational tool because that’s exactly what it is --- insulting. The Spartans have won every big game they’ve played in this season. They have the more experienced QB and in no way are they 10 points inferior to these Badgers. Wisconsin was beat by both Michigan State and Ohio State. The 37-31 loss to Spardy is actually a flattering score to the Badgers, as MSU took a ton of penalties in that game that killed some of its own drives and extended drives for the Badgers. This insulting 9½ number will be hanging in huge fonts in the Spartans dressing room and they’ll respond with perhaps their best effort of the season. Play: #345 Michigan State +9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Red Dog Sports
Georgia Tech vs. Tulane
Play: Tulane -1½
Tulane has not lost yet and they haven't been facing good competition but the Green Wave play solid defense and this will be a true road game for Georgia tech. Tech just got blown out at home by Northwestern and only Geln Rice, Jr. is a solid offensive player. Tech is still searching for its identity under Brian Gregory. Take the home team as a small favorite.
JR O'Donnell
Iowa St. +10.5
Today's Fb members play is short , sweet & powerful... Iowa St Cyclones stay well within the 10.5 at #16 ranked Kansas St crew @ 12:30. Power rated @ K State - 5.77 points we will gladly take the over lay..... Looking at this hard we find a Iowa St crew burnt last week by 4 To's .. They will play hard today at these WildCats.. These Cyclones shocked the Okie Cowboys in OT AND DO HAVE THE TALENT TO match up today...... #'s are strong at Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. & K State Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Let's get after the Cyclones + 10.5 as they cover.
Bob Balfe
Oakland -13.5 over Missouri-Kansas City
I would take this Oakland Offense against any offense in the nation. These guys can straight up ball. The defense is a little weak, but as long as they are playing weaker teams that is not that big of a problem right now. This team has hit over 100 already this season and I would not doubt for them to get close again tonight. Take Oakland
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
BYU/ Hawaii Under 55.5: Bryant Moniz is out for the Rainbows and this offense just isnt the same without him. In their first 4 home games with Moniz at the helm the Rainbows averaged 41.5 ppg, but in their last 2 home game without him they nhave averaged just 28 ppg. Tonight this offense must take on a very good BYU defense that has allowed 7 points of less in 3 of their last 4 games. For the year the Cougars are 17th in total defense, allowing just 317 ypg and they are 24th in points allowed, allowing just 20.4 ppg. The Cougars are also 19th vs the pass, allowing just 190 ypg and should have no problems in stopping this Hawaii pass attack that will struggle without Moniz. The Cougars do put up 29.6 ppg overall, but just 24 ppg on the road and they will be facing a Hawaii defense that has played well at home this year, where they have allowed just 24.5 ppg and 346 ypg. I just can't this game coming close to 56 points, especially with the way the Cougs play defense overall and Hawaii plays defense at home. I expect a game in the low 40's here.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
KANSAS STATE -10.5 over Iowa State: Gotta feel this is a tough spot for the Cyclones as they are off BB tough games vs the Oklahoma's and now they have to travel to Manhattan, Kansas to take on a Wildcat team that has BCS Bowl aspirations, plus a KSU win here and an Oklahoma win tonight would give them a share of the Big 12 title. KSU is 17-4 SU in their last 21 home finales and they have outscored their opponents by 17 ppg in that stetch. The ISU offense is not great as they have averaged just v23.5 ppg overall and 22.8 ppg on the road. KSU has had some problems on defense lately but facing oklahoma, A&M and OSU in the last 4 weeks will do that to any team. Two weeks ago they faced a struggling Texas offense and held them to just 13 points and 310 yards of total offense. This team can play some defense. The KSU offense (33.4 ppg) should be able to score easily on an ISU defene that has allowed 30.8 ppg on the road this year. The Widcats have had the extra week to get ready for this one and with so much at stake they should befully focused to take down the Cyclones easily here. KSU by 17+. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against any road team, if they have a winning record and are off a SU loss, but ATS win on the road. This play is 37-14 the last 10 years.
3 UNIT PLAY
HOUSTON -13 over Southern Miss: This is Case Keenum's (16-2 ATS as a starter at home) final home game and you can bet that this record setting QB want to go out strong. This game has huge implications for the Cougars as a win here will not only give them the Conference USA title, but is should net them a spot in a BCS bowl as well, but they may still have to win big to get it. Foretunately for them they are at home in this one and they have been winning big there. The Cougars have outscored their opponents by 36.1 ppg at home and they have piled up 593 ypg and 53.8 ppg in doing so. The Southern Miss defense has allowed just 338 ypg and 20.5 ppg on the year, but they have struggled some on the road where they have allowed 404 ypg and 26.7 ppg. Southern Miss is 556th in the nation vs the pass and will have their hands full with Case Keenum, who has hit 73% of his passes with 43 TD's and just 3 INT's. Thats better than video game numbers. All the Talk with hpouston is about their offense, but this team can "D" it up a bit as they have allowed just 20.9 ppg overall and 17.7 ppg at home. We know that Southern Miss has these ability to put up points, but with this game being like a Super Bowl tpo Case and this Cougars team, i don't see Southern Miss Putting up enough points to keep this one close. KEY TRENDS--- The Cougars are 10-2 ATS this year, including 7-0 ATS with the total set at 70 or more, plus Kevin Sumlin is 14-2 ATS as a home favorite as coach of Houston.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse/ Pittsburgh Under 47.5: The Orange offense has been non-existent of late as they have averaged just 15.5 ppg in their last 4 games., while they have pout up just 21.3 ppg on the road this year. The Cuse dfense has not been that special this year as they have allowed 28.1 ppg overall and 31.8 ppg on the road, but the Pitt offense has also taken a leave of absense as they have averaged just 20.5 ppg over their last 6 games. The Pitt defense has been solid all year as they have allowed 22.6 ppg overall and they have allowed just 20.8 ppg in their last 5 home games. Let's also note that the OU is 10-29 when the Cuse is off a loss of 10 or more to a conference rival, while the OU is 5-14 in Pitt's last 19 games following a conference game. A classic low scoring Big East battle here.
Georgia +13 over LSU: Just too many points in a championship game, especially when the Underdog has a defense as strong as Georgia's. The Dawgs come in 5th overall (271 ypg), 6th vs the run (94.9 ypg) and 10th in points allowed (17.8 ppg). The Georgia offense had a bit of a hiccup vs Kentucky, but they have still put up 39.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The LSU offense has been solid, but for the most part it's due to a defense that has caused TO's and created short fields. Georgia will take care of the ball in this one and make LSU work the whole field. The Tigers couldn't do it vs Bama nd they wont be able to here either. This should be a low scoring tight ball game that will be won on a late score by LSU.
1 UNIT PLAY
NEW MEXICO STATE +13.5 over Utah State: The 6 games for Utah State has been decided by 10 points or less, while NMSU has played good at home as they have been outscored by just 6 ppg. I look for a close game in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Valparaiso/ Butler Under 130: Valpo is dead last in the country in shots per game (40.8), while Butler is 295th (50.7). The Butler defense has been solid this year as they have allowed just 63 ppg on 43% shooting. The Valpo defense has struggled as they have allowed 72.2 ppg this year, but Butler is not a very good offensive team as they have averaged 61 ppg on a mere 40.8% shooting. Despite putting up the fewest shots in the nation, Valpo still has scored 69 ppg on 45.2% shooting, but they do shoot just 42.4% on the road. Both teams shoot less than 29% from long range and both teams are under 70% from the charity stripe, plus we also note that Butler home games have averaged just 114 ppg. I expect no more than 125 in this one.KEY TREND--- The OU is 4-14 when Valpo is off a road loss of 10 or more since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Kentucky Under 152:5: We know that the Tar Heels can score, but when faced with a team that plays good defense they can also be slowed down a bit. Kentucky comes in having allowed just 54.9 ppg on 31.3% shooting so far this yera and they have the ability to slow this offense down. The Heels have not played great defense and Williams is not happy at all so I look for a more spirited effort at that end of the floor for this game. Both teams like the uptempo game, but I see the defenses getting back and keep the fast break points to a minimum. I look for between 130 and 140 in this one.
WISCONSIN -7.5 over Marquette: Despite their 6-0 start to the year we have to remember that just 1 of the Golden Eagles wins were vs decent competition (Ole Miss) and that two of those wins were vs Norfolk State. Marquett hasn't really played anyone yet, while the Badgers have mixed it up (and hung tough with) Carolina, plus they won by DD over good BYU and Bradley squads as well. Wisconsin has outscored their opponents by 25.6 ppg on the year, while at home they have won by 39.2 ppg. Their defense is the key in this one and I believe their defense will be able to slow down Marquette in this one. True that Marquette's defense has been solid this year also, but Wisconsin is just too efficient on the offensive end to be held in check. Wisconsin slowed the game vs Carolina down and they will make it a half court game here as well and that is not the kind of game that Marquette likes to play. I look for about a 10 point win by the Badgers in this one.
More Later
Vegas Experts
Pittsburgh at Carolina
Pittsburgh faces off against Carolina tonight and they are larger -160 favorites but look for another easy win like they had earlier in the season against Carolina. Pitt has the revenge factor as they lost to Carolina earlier this season 5-3 which puts them in a good situation since they are 15-6 SU on the road, revenging a loss where the opponent scored four goals or more. Carolina is 1-7 SU after a high scoring game where seven or more goals were scored and will not come close to winning this one.
Play on: Pittsburgh