Tony Stoffo
CS Fullerton vs. SIU Edwardsville
Play: Over 146.5
Free CBK Play CS-Fullerton at SIU Edwardsvl In their last meeting these two combined to score 152 points with an 88 point second half. With everything I'll seen so far this season I definitely look for more of the same here calling for a strong release on the Over in this spot. CS-Fullerton is 8-1 Over off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. CS-Fullerton is 12-3 Over when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=20%)
ZACH SPARAZZA
Drexel Dragons -2.5
Bruiser Flint’s Drexel Dragons were finally ready to make the next step, win the CAA, and get to the Big Dance for the first time in school history. They opened their season in the 24 hour marathon with a 6 AM game at Rider, winning 80-62 and convincing us all that they were for real, and that Flint, a John Calipari product, was ready to get his team to the next level. However, since their season-opening win they are only 1-3 with losses to Norfolk St, Virginia, and St. Joe’s. While none of those names are ones that warrant immunity from criticism, it is true that Virginia is seeing a sharp upgrade in talent under Tony Bennett (his UVA Cavaliers just beat Michigan 70-58 in the ACC/Big 10 challenge—one of the few wins for the ACC). St. Joe’s is also much-improved this year, and Norfolk State, a perennial bottom-feeder in the MEAC, has a big time guard in Chris McEachin who made plays down the stretch to knock Drexel from the winners bracket of their tournament in the Virgin Islands.
Drexel is much better than their 2-3 record, and they have been without Chris Fouch for all but one game—as he was suspended for the first four games of the season. He returned and played limited minutes in their last outing vs St. Joe’s, but for a kid that had averaged double figures in each of his past two seasons, you can expect him to log some serious minutes in a must-win conference game for Drexel. Must they win in their conference opener? Yes, losing to a Delaware Blue Hens team that is possibly the worst team in the CAA (excluding William and Mary who just stinks) would be devastating to Drexel’s at large hopes. They don’t have enough high profile games left on their schedule, so if they want to secure a berth without having to win their CAA Tournament title—they have to beat Delaware today.
Delaware is 2-3 also, but their losses include Radford and Boston University—two schools that a CAA team should not be losing to. Monte Ross just has not done enough in recruiting, and while they had a once energized fan base when now Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey was there, their games are now empty. This is a short trip for Drexel, so they will have a lot of people in the building. Grab this line now, because if you are reading this on Saturday, the chances are you will have to lay 3+ points. Either way, I think you should be fine, because this Drexel team will open conference play with a big performance and right their ship after a tough start to a year with very high expectations.
North Dakota St -1
This North Dakota St team is the real deal, and coming off their first loss of the season at Western Illinois, I expect a huge bounce back game for a solid group that cannot afford to start conference play 0-2. This group was averaging 74 points per game against a solid group of 6 opponents, but they went out in their conference opener and laid an egg against Western Illinois, shooting 5-24 in the first half and finishing the game with by far their lowest scoring output of the season in a 55-51 loss. This team won a true road game against a solid San Francisco team (quick trivia: Who is the best player to ever come out of Univ of San Francisco Dons program?) in the Hilltop Classic and followed it up with a 20 point beatdown of Bob Marlin’s UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (Bob Marlin was at Sam Houston St and always does a great job of getting some of the best juco kids from his region). IUPUI lost their longtime coach Ron Turner to Georgia St, and they are in rebuilding mode. They lost their conference opener in OT at home to South Dakota St (a game that I gave away as a 3* free play winner on Thursday night), and they just haven’t gotten it going yet. They re 2-6 for a reason, with losses coming to Eastern Michigan and Arkansas Little-Rock, two teams that Ron Turner did not make a habit of losing to. Plain and simple: North Dakota St is the better team, and while conference road games are tough when there is this much travel involved, North Dakota St is the superior team—and they win this one today and cover the small spread. Answer to the trivia: Bill Russell
Idaho Vandals -2.5
Don Verlin has done a nice job putting some respectability on the face of a dormant program. Not to many high school hoops stars aspire to play in Moscow, Idaho (although Sarah Palin is an Idaho grad). However, as tough as Idaho is to recruit to, apparently the coaching staff at UC Davis finds it tough to recruit as well, because this program is bad. Idaho is 3-3 and comes off a home loss to a very good Eastern Washington team, while UC Davis is 1-6 and trying to find ways to compete in the Big West. Idaho has played well against some good teams this year: they opened their year with a 69-61 loss at Long Beach St (who trounced Pitt at the Oakland Zoo), and they lost at Montana by 5 (a perennial Big Sky contender who always plays tough at home and beat the aforementioned Long Beach St team in the game directly after the Pitt win). UC Davis lost to Eastern Washington by 20 while Idaho lost to them by 7, and not that I’m using the transitive property—but for the sake of argument, they have not fared as well against a common opponent. UC Davis also lost to Southern Utah and Bryant University—two schools that have never had a winning record at the Division I level. To cap it all off, this UC Davis team lost to Sacramento St 69-61 at home after leading by 10 at the half (a game I gave away as a free play winner with Sac St +4.5). Idaho is the better team, and it will take one of UC Davis’ best performances of the season to this point to cover this spread or win the game. UC Davis’ only win? An 84-78 win over Division II UC-Santa Cruz. Take the Vandals and get them down to 2.5, although you might be laying more if you aren’t reading this until Saturday morning.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
OAKLAND -14 over UMKC: This Oakland team is one strong mid level team and they have played a pretty tough schedule so far. The Golden Grizzlies started out 0-2 on the year but that was road games vs Arkansas and Alabama and since then this team has gone 5-0 which has included a road win at Houston and a home win vs Tennessee. The Kangaroos have only played one team of note (Wisconsin) and they lost by 46 in that one. Of their other 3 losses, one was on the road to Utah Valley State and the other was a home loss to Division II foe NW Missouri State. Not a very good resume at all. Oakland averages 79.3 ppg, while UMKC has has allowed just 65 ppg, but they are 246th in the nation in FG% defense , allowing 44.2%. UMKC Averages just 65 ppg and even though oakland struggles on defense OI don't expect them to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. Oakland is 18-4 ATS after an ATS win the last 2 seasons and thye are 17-4 ATS off BB SU wins. Oakland has played the much togher schedule so far and that will really help them in conference play, so I expect them to win by 17 or more here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Valparaiso/ Butler Under 130: Valpo is dead last in the country in shots per game (40.8), while Butler is 295th (50.7). The Butler defense has been solid this year as they have allowed just 63 ppg on 43% shooting. The Valpo defense has struggled as they have allowed 72.2 ppg this year, but Butler is not a very good offensive team as they have averaged 61 ppg on a mere 40.8% shooting. Despite putting up the fewest shots in the nation, Valpo still has scored 69 ppg on 45.2% shooting, but they do shoot just 42.4% on the road. Both teams shoot less than 29% from long range and both teams are under 70% from the charity stripe, plus we also note that Butler home games have averaged just 114 ppg. I expect no more than 125 in this one.KEY TREND--- The OU is 4-14 when Valpo is off a road loss of 10 or more since 1997.
Tennessee/ Pittsburgh Over 143: Really hard not to look seriously at an over play in a Vols game with a total lower than 150. Vols game have averaged 162.4 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 151 ppg. Tennessee likes to push the ball and they are in the top 20 in the nation in shots per game. The Vols have averaged 84.4 ppg with 45.5% shooting overall and 40.4% from long range. This team does like the 3 pointer and they are 85th (20.8 pg) in hoisting up threes. Pitt normally has a stout Big East style defense, but this year they have allowed 69.6 ppg on a high 46.9% shooting. For Tennessess, because of the faced paced style they play, defense is not usually in their vocabulary. This year the Vols have allowed 78 ppg on 45.6% shooting overall, including 40.3% from long range. Pittsburgh has been very good on offense this year as they have scored 80.4 ppg on a nice 51.4% shooting, including a very solid 45.8% from downtown, which is 2nd in the nation. Pitt puts up 20.8 threes a game (99th). Both teams can get out and run, both teams can shoot the three and both are above 70% from the FT line, while Pitt plays average defense and Tennessee plays poorly at that end of the floor. I expect 150+ with ease here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Kentucky Under 152:5: We know that the Tar Heels can score, but when faced with a team that plays good defense they can also be slowed down a bit. Kentucky comes in having allowed just 54.9 ppg on 31.3% shooting so far this yera and they have the ability to slow this offense down. The Heels have not played great defense and Williams is not happy at all so I look for a more spirited effort at that end of the floor for this game. Both teams like the uptempo game, but I see the defenses getting back and keep the fast break points to a minimum. I look for between 130 and 140 in this one.
WISCONSIN -7.5 over Marquette: Despite their 6-0 start to the year we have to remember that just 1 of the Golden Eagles wins were vs decent competition (Ole Miss) and that two of those wins were vs Norfolk State. Marquett hasn't really played anyone yet, while the Badgers have mixed it up (and hung tough with) Carolina, plus they won by DD over good BYU and Bradley squads as well. Wisconsin has outscored their opponents by 25.6 ppg on the year, while at home they have won by 39.2 ppg. Their defense is the key in this one and I believe their defense will be able to slow down Marquette in this one. True that Marquette's defense has been solid this year also, but Wisconsin is just too efficient on the offensive end to be held in check. Wisconsin slowed the game vs Carolina down and they will make it a half court game here as well and that is not the kind of game that Marquette likes to play. I look for about a 10 point win by the Badgers in this one.
Matt Rivers
Your comp play comes in the SEC Championship Game, as I back the Georgia Bulldogs plus the points to keep things close against # 1 and undefeated LSU.
There is no pressure at all on UGa in this spot, and you can figure on them having the majority of the crowd at the Georgia Dome in their corner as they try and hand LSU their first loss of the season.
After losing their first two games, the Bulldogs do enter today's contest riding a 10-game winning streak, and their defense is easily the best that LSU has seen this season (other than Alabama's of course), while the Georgia offense features one of the better quarterbacks that the Bayou Bengals will face this season in Aaron Murray.
The word is that even with a loss, LSU will still make the BCS title game. If that is the case, and that fact is even given an iota of a thought by the LSU players, then the case for taking Georgia plus the points becomes all the stronger.
The last time Georgia made it to the SEC title game was back in 2005, when they beat LSU and Les Miles 34-14 as the small undedog! Could it be Deja-Vu all over again? Nah, but I will settle for a Bulldogs cover this afternoon from Atlanta.
Take the points.
2♦ GEORGIA
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play I'm siding with Texas in a revenge spot plus the points over Baylor. We all remember last years meeting, but it would be a mistake to simply assume Baylor is going to take care of their in-state rival once again here today.
The first thing that stands out is the line. There is a ton of public action on Baylor, as everyone seems to think RGIII is going to torch this Texas defense. Problem is the number is just a little too easy if you ask me. It's almost as if the oddsmakers are begging you to take Baylor, who's at home, won 4 straight and has the far superior offense. Not buying it.
The difference here is the Longhorns defense, which has been outstanding since they got their asses handed to them by the Sooners in early October. And when I say outstanding, I mean it. Just looking at their L3 games they're allowing just 19 ppg on 262 total yards. This is a huge edge for Texas going into this matchup.
I know what the argument is: How in the hell does Texas keep up with Baylor's explosive offense? First of all, I don't expect Baylor offense to look all that explosive today. And second, Baylor simply cannot stop the run, allowing 199 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.3 ypc. They've been better of late, but there's no question they're going to get a healthy dose of this Longhorns run game. Defense and an offense that can move the chains and control the time of possession with the run - this is the formula to beating Griffin and the Bears. I say Texas follows that blueprint to a T this afternoon. Take Texas plus the points over Baylor Saturday.
2♦ TEXAS
Jeff Benton
Go ahead and eat the chalk with the Horned Frogs of TCU as they lay waste to the Rebels of UNLV.
There are few certainties in life...death, taxes and that UNLV cannot win on the road. The Rebels have lost 15 straight road games and sport a 1-14 spread mark in those 15 losses. 1-14 ATS. Nothing I see in this matchup indicates a change is forthcoming as TCU has won and covered the last four series meetings, outscoring them 167-30 along the way.
True, Gary Patterson's team is just 1-5 versus the spread as a double-digit home favorite this season, but remember also that the host in UNLV games is a whopping 20-3 (or 86 percent), versus Division 1 teams since head coach Hauck arrived.
This may not be the staunchest TCU edition, but it is an edition that will get up for the beat-down on senior day in Forth Worth.
Blowout City here, TCU by at least six touchdowns.
3♦ TCU
Chris Jordan
Southern Cal at MINNESOTA (-5')
Is it just me, or is Tubby Smith on the verge of doing something special with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Seriously, this team has been playing well of late, and inside Williams Arena, it's very tough to beat them. The downtrodden, rebuilding, name-only Southern Cal Trojans will not be the superior team wearing Maroon and Gold today. That honor goes to the five-point favored Gophers I think will win by double digits.
Smith has his team off to a 7-1 start, as it comes in after bouncing back just a few days after its first loss of the season by knocking off a decent Virginia Tech team 58-55, this past Wednesday at home. Well-rested, I don't see there being any problem in the Golden Gophers doing it again, winning that is, but this time by double digits.
See, even though Southern Cal comes from a power conference, it isn’t one of the better teams this year, as it lost several key players from last season's team that rode into the dance on a bubble, including a trio of seniors and NBA draft early-entrant Nikola Vucevic, who was taken in the first round.
Making matters worse, senior point guard Jio Fontan tore an ACL late this summer while traveling with the Trojans on its foreign tour of Brazil and is out for the year. Big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Trojans' athletic 7-foot sophomore center, was working his way back into the fray after breaking his hand in October, but then suffered a stress fracture in his right foot and is sidelined four to six weeks.
The Gophers, meanwhile, are moving right along, as they've played all sorts of competition - from the likes of Bucknell, South Dakota State and Fairfield, to, DePaul, Dayton and Virginia Tech.
They clearly have the better roster, better coach and homecourt advantage. This is a low number, and should be pounded.
5♦ MINNESOTA
St. Mary's (-4') at CAL POLY SLO
For my second complimentary for Saturday, I am going to the West coast for a showdown between West Coast Conference-member St. Mary's and Big West Conference-member Cal Poly, and will gladly lay the low chalk with the visiting Gaels. They come in with a 4-1 overall record after scoring back-to-back wins over San Francisco State and Weber State to claim the championship at the Shamrock Office Solutions Classic in their McKeon Pavilion.
Early in the season, the Gaels already lead the WCC in scoring margin (+19), scoring defense (58.2), field goal percentage (.511), rebound margin (+9.8), assists (17.6) and assist/turnover ratio (1.4). They lso boast the league's leading scorer and rebounder, as senior Rob Jones is off to a resounding season. Plus, they also have the West Coast Conference's assist leader, in junior Matthew Dellavedova.
Look out Gonzaga and BYU, when league play starts, when you have the leader in all three of those categories, that's trouble.
Though I'm well aware of Cal Poly's three-game win streak, I'm not as impressed with how it's playing, compared to St. Mary's, which is playing with a sense of urgency this early in the season.
Lay the points.
1♦ ST. MARY'S
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG -½ +147 over New Jersey
New Jersey has lost three in a row and over its past five games they've scored two goals or less in all of them. Over their last three games, the Devils have allowed 13 goals against. Marty Brodeur was pulled last night after allowing three goals on four shots early in the first period. The Devils used up a lot of energy trying to get back into it but could not. Now they’ll travel again to play their third game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs, all on the road. The Florida Panthers played for Devils coach Peter DeBoer last season and they all shared the same sentiments. They hated playing for him because he never let you live down a mistake and constantly dwelled upon an individual’s shortcoming. The Devils are reeling, there’s no end in sight and this is not a favorable spot either. The Jets love playing hockey and they love it even more at home. This is a true love affair with the fans. After each home win the team salutes the fans by raising their sticks in the air as they gather around center ice. Winnipeg is getting the love and appreciation they never got in Atlanta and perhaps that explains why they always started the year off great but always faltered badly. Winnipeg has won four of five at home with only loss over that span occurring against the Sens upon returning from a trip. The best part about this game is that the Jets have lost four in a row to this fragile invader and they will play their hearts out to put a stop to that losing streak. Bet this one with confidence. Play: Winnipeg -½ +147 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +275 over BOSTON (3-way betting)
Not easy to bet against the hottest team on ice these days but the price dictates the play and the Maple Leafs are playing too good right now to ignore. The Leafs went toe-to-toe with the Bruins on Wednesday in an unfavorable situation (returning home from a four game trip that ended in Anaheim) and there’s no reason they can’t go toe-to-toe with them here. Toronto has won four of its last six games and they scored 23 goals in those four games. Both Leaf losses over that stretch were in unfavorable spots with the other occurring in Carolina, playing its third game in four days and playing a late afternoon game after a night game, something that is rarely seen. So yeah, the B’s are hot and seemingly have the Leafs number but we’re not buying that. The Leafs are greatly improved, they’re greatly undervalued here and could play one of its best games of the season. Play: Toronto +275 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +240 over WASHINGTON (3-way betting)
At some point the Capitals are going to win a game but as pressure mounts and as the losses pile up, it gets tougher, not easier to get that first win for their new coach. Since Dale Hunter took over the Caps have scored twice in two games. Hunter is switching goaltenders tonight from Tomas Vokoun to Michael Neuvirth and his 2-4-1 record, 3.81 GAA and .868 winning percentage. It also appears that the new coach didn’t give any spark to Alexander Semin and although not confirmed the reports are that Semin will be a healthy scratch again tonight. Believe it folks, the Caps are coming apart and they’re just not that good anymore. They were badly outplayed by the Blue Notes in Hunter’s debut and it was worse against the Pens in that flattering 2-1 loss. Meanwhile, the Sens remain one of the most undervalued teams in the league. They’re playing with confidence and they know they can beat anyone with an honest 60-minute effort. Under some extremely unfavorable scheduling conditions, the Sens have won five of their last eight games and they absolutely have a shot to win here. Once again we find some tremendous value playing against an overvalued and unappealing Caps squad. Play: Ottawa +240 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +190 over NASHVILLE (3-way betting)
The Predators are returning home from an exhausting road trip that took them through Minnesota, Detroit and three games in Western Canada that ended with a game in Vancouver on Thursday night. The Preds wanted that last game badly and gave it everything they had in a 6-5 win. That took a lot out of them and they’ll now have to face a hungry Sabres team that has been so much better on the road than they’ve been at home. Buffalo is 7-3 on the road and it looks like they’ll get Ryan Miller back for this one. That alone is more comfortable for the whole team, as Jonas Enroth is capable but he’s a back-up goaltender and the Sabres rely on Miller. Buffalo has lost back-to-back home games to the Islanders and Detroit and they’ve lost five of its last six games. Even with all the injuries it’s still uncharacteristic of the Sabres to perform at less than 100%. It’s time to dig down deep for this road win and be in a good frame of mind for its upcoming five-game home stand after this one. Again, the situation is a favorable one for the Sabres, as the Preds are a team that needs a 100% effort or damn near to beat anyone. Expect a more focused and determined Sabres team, as coach Lindy Ruff will not tolerate anything else. Play: Buffalo +190 (Risking units).
Hollywood Sports
Fresno St. at San Diego St.
Prediction: San Diego St.
San Diego State (7-4) may use this final home game to start fast against a Fresno State team that is playing out the string. The Aztecs' defense is allowing 16.5 PPG in the first half but this unit is tightening up in the second half and surrendering only 5.9 PPG. San Diego State comes off a 31-14 win at UNLV -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last opponent to 20 points or less. Fresno State has lost their fourth game in their last five games after getting upset last week by a 27-24 score to San Jose State despite being at home by a 6-point favorite. It has been a very disappointing season for a Bulldogs team that expected to compete for the WAC championship. Instead, penalties and turnovers have contributed to this club to continue to shoot themselves in their proverbial foot. It is unlikely that Fresno State will rally for this final test since they are a decisive 10-39-2 ATS in their last 51 games coming after a loss. The Bulldogs are just 2-4 away from home this season -- and the Aztecs have covered 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. San Diego State has also covered 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-10 range. Lay the points with San Diego State for this one.