VEGAS EXPERTS
Virginia at Auburn
Play: Virginia
Virginia takes on Auburn in tonight’s Chick-Fil A Bowl and the public has fallen into the trap as they have bet up Auburn two points from small one point favorites to three point favorites. Auburn played for the BCS Championship last year and after losing some key players such as Cam Newton, they will show very little effort in this Bowl Game. Auburn has averaged only 14 points per game when playing away from home and have given up an average of 36 points when playing away. Look for Virginia to have a strong performance while Auburn shows very little effort.
Charlie Scott
Virginia vs. Auburn
Play: Virginia +3
Can't understand why Auburn is favored, except for name brand Chick Filet Bowl, after playing in & winning the National Championship gm with Cam Newxton at QB Last Year. Since their last gm of the regular season, Auburn has lost their coordinators (Guz Mahlzan) Off Genius and star RB Dwyer. Virginia should be excited to play in this Bowl gm as this is Virginia's first Bowl game under Coach Mike London, I expect them to play physical and push Auburn around.
Jack Jones
Illinois -2
Illinois is clearly one of the best 6-6 teams in the country. They simply did not close out the season strong, and as a result they are undervalued heading into this bowl game. I'll gladly back their defense over a UCLA defense that cannot stop anyone.
Illinois ranks 7th in the country in total defense (291.7 yards/game). They are tremendous against the run, yielding just 133 yards/game and 3.3/carry on the ground. UCLA is primarily a running team and will have a hard time finding open lanes to run through Saturday.
The Bruins rank 86th in the country in total defense (424.2 yards/game) while allowing 32.2 points/game. As you can see, they give up over 130 yards/game more than Illinois does. UCLA allows 192 rushing yards/game and 5.2/carry, while the Illini rush for 171 yards/game and 4.1/carry.
Given all the numbers, you can see why this is an excellent match-up for Illinois. Plus, the Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. UCLA is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Illini are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Bet Illinois Saturday.
Scott Delaney
Your free winner for Saturday comes from the college basketball card, as I'm taking it to Oahu, and playing the resurgent UNLV Runnin' Rebels at Hawai'i, thinking Dave Rice's boys are going to run it up with ease tonight. In years past, realistically since Jerry Tarkanian was forced out after the 1992 season, I'd be worried about the Rebels going to Hawaii on New Years Eve. But under coach Rice, a Tark-disciple, I love the discipline this team has off the court, and its rambunctious ways on it.
Since losing at Wisconsin, 62-51, the Rebels have won five in a row, tallying 65, 64, 81, 85 and 124 points. Those games were against UTEP, Illinois, La-Monroe, California and Central Arkansas. A couple of cupcakes, one mediocre team and two tough customers. Now a three-game road trip that starts in Hawaii and ends with the conference opener in Southern Cal against chief Mountain West contender San Diego State. And there is no way that Rice is going to let his team ease up with its tenacity and offensive ways. The Rebels can't afford to, not with that Jan. 14 date against the Aztecs looming.
Now I know Hawai'i knocked off Xavier and Clemson recently, but that's a good thing, cause it just confirms my thought process in that UNLV cannot take this trip to the island lightly, and has to be focused solely on the Warriors, and not Waikiki Beach.
Mike Moser averages a double-double and is the 13th-ranked rebounder in the nation with 11.1 per game. Chase Stanback leads the team in scoring (15.5 points per game), field-goal percentage (.513) and 3-point field-goal percentage (.500), and ranks 30th in the nation in 3-point FG percentage.
The Rebels went into the holidays ranked 39th in the nation, on Dec. 18, with 77.7 points per game, but have climbed to 12th in the nation with 81.3 points per contest. The Rebels come into this game after a 49-point over Central Arkansas, the largest margin of victory since Feb. 7 1991, and a clear indicator the run-and-gun has returned to the Runnin' Rebels.
I could go on and on about this team statistically, like its knack for burying treys, or how unselfish it is which is evidenced by ranking third in the nation wwith 19.3 assists per game or how stingy it is by ranking 24th in the country with 9.0 steals per game to spurn the transition game. The Rebs lead the conference in scoring, field-goal percentage, blocks, assists, steals and assist-to-turnover ratio.
I can't wait for the dance in March, this team is going to be exciting. Tonight, it's covering the 11.5 points.
2♦ UNLV
Chuck O'Brien
As the bowl schedule gets down to the nitty gritty, away from the sponsored-fluff contests and into the old-school games, let's take a look at an oldie but goodie - the Liberty Bowl, as I take Cincinnati against Vanderbilt. Rarely do I like to side against a team that is seemingly the de facto home team, but I can't ignore a short line like this, with the nation's 24th-ranked team that has an awfully stingy D.
Believe me, the only reason Vandy is in this game is because the fan-faithful can travel about 200 miles to the Southwest to see the 6-6 Commodores take on the Big East co-champion Bearcats.
Hey, I'll give it to Vandy, it too has a solid defense and put up some impressive numbers to rank 19th in the nation. But this team also finished the season 3-6 after opeing up the campaign 3-0 with wins over Elon, UConn and OIe Miss. It also beat up on Army, Kentucky and Wake Forest later in the season, and didn't become bowl eligible until the final game of the season.
Fact is, though, when it took on the upper echelon of the SEC: South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida and Tennessee, the Commodores tanked. And I don't think the 97th-ranked offense in the nation is going to be able to penetrate Cincinnati's stingy defense that ranked 20th in the nation by allowing just 20 points per game. It also ranked 10th in the country in turnover margin, and No. 1 in the nation in sacks and tackles for loss.
The Bearcats get after it. And that's the big reason they finished up 9-3 this season. Stunning losses to West Virginia and at Rutgers raised the ire of this team, and though it closed the campaign with two wins, there is still something to prove for a team that wanted the BCS bid out of the Big East.
Let's go for it with this one; play the Bearcats on the Moneyline.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie in college buckets is going to be backing the Providence Friars who come into Georgetown off a rather embarrassing 91-67 loss at St. John's this past Tuesday night.
Look for the points to work today, as I expect the Hoyas to be a little gassed after handing Louisville their first loss of the season earlier in the week.
Last season the Friars gave the Hoyas all they could handle on their home floor, losing by just a basket as the double-digit underdog. In fact, Providence has covered five of the last seven series meetings.
Inflated line for sure today based on the results from each teams last outing. Look for things to be a little sticky for the favored Hoyas, as the Friars increase their series spread mark to 6-2 the last eight series showdowns.
4♦ PROVIDENCE
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with Butler over Wis.-Milwaukee. First thing that stands out about this game is the line. It's somewhat unusual to find the a 10-4 Wis.-Milwaukee team getting points against a 7-7 Butler team. Clearly the oddmakers are trying to entice action on the Panters. Big mistake. Butler is finally starting come around, winning their last two including an impressive outright upset at Stanford. You see, it was never a question of talent, but rather how that talent would play together - right now they're starting to fire on all cylinders.
Biggest problem for the Panthers is size, as they have little answer for Andrew Smith. Couple with Kameron Woods, and this Butler frontline should own the painted area in today's contest. Furthermore, its no like the Panthers have a set go-to guy anyways. They will struggle against a Bulldogs defense which has been rocks-solid at home.
Both teams are coming off upset wins, but sitting at 7-7, its clear Butler cannot afford to lose this game on its home court. They did not play well against Wisconsin Green Bay shooting just 31% from the floor. Look for a big turnaround today, as the Panthers defense is solid, but will struggle on the frontline.
Bottom line, its no secret the Bulldogs have burned their backers all season, but there's no question we're beginning to see improvement. Look for Butler to take another step in the right direction tonight. Lastly, you have to consider the perception and the line, as it just too easy to play the Panthers here. Lay it with Butler over Wis.-Milwaukee Saturday.
2♦ BUTLER
Chris Jordan
Your free winner for Saturday is in college basketball, as I take you to an intra-state rivalry in Nampa, Idaho, where Boise State and Idaho will do battle in the Idaho Center. While I wish this game were being played in Boise, at Taco Bell Arena, one of the most underestimated college basketball venues in college hoops, I'm okay with laying the points about 20 miles away, just Southwest of Boise. I know the Vandals can be a tough competitor in this rivalry, but they'll have their hands full this season.
Idaho comes in having lost two straight, an with a respectable 7-6 record. It's covered three straight in this series, but I don't believe it has the personnel to keep up with the Broncos, who are 9-4 on the year - with all nine wins coming at home. And as close as this game is to campus, there will be enough of a home crowd there to give the Broncos the edge. For the record, Idaho U. is in Moscow, which dead-North of Nampa, about 315 miles. And given it's New Year's Eve, you better believe the Vandal-fans aren't traveling, and the Vandals likely aren't thinking about this game.
The Broncos, who hold a 50-35 advantage in the series, are in the right spot for a win, as they need to get on the winning track after losing three of their last four. Boise has lost to Long Beach, LSU, Denver and Iowa this season. Not too shabby, considering the Broncos have beaten decent programs in Utah, Northern Illinois, Drake, Indiana State and Fresno State. After this game there's a return engagement in Fresno before taking 12 days off prior to Mountain West Conference play starting.
Though the Mountain West has its perennial powers, Boise State is holding its own in several categories, ranking No. 1 or 2 in scoring offense (77.9), three-point field-goal percentage (.405), rebounding defense (28.2 per game), rebounding margin (+7.5), offensive rebounds (12.38 per game), defensive rebounding percentage (.766), offensive rebounding percentage (.370) and three-pointers made (8.85 per game).
The Vandals are mired in a 3-13 spread slide on neutral courts, and will bring in the New Year with a big loss to the Broncos. Lay the points.,
3♦ BOISE STATE
Matt Rivers
Your New Year's Eve comp play winner will be to take the field goal and go with the Virginia Cavaliers as they take on Auburn in the Chick Fil-A Bowl from the Georgia Dome this Saturday night.
Things in Charlottesville are on the rise, as head coach Mike London was just rewarded with a new contract, and his team is making their first bowl appearence since 2007.
Sure the Cavs were blanked at Virginia Tech on the last week of the season as they finally ran out of gas in their quest to make the ACC title game, but the Wahoos did close the season with wins in six of their last eight games, and they went 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games.
The Virginia defense has been shored-up this year, as they held six of their final eight opponents to 21-points or less. The same cannot be said for the leaky Auburn defense which allowed 34-points or more in seven of their twelve games this season.
Throw in the multiple coaching changes - defensive coordinator Ted Roof moving to Central Florida, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn taking over the coaching reins at Arkansas State - and the suspension of RB Michael Dyer, and you have the makings of an upset win by UVa in this contest.
The Tigers failed two of their three tries this season when listed as the favorite, and they will fail in this attempt too.
Virginia plus any points the play in the Chick Fil-A Bowl this Saturday night.
5♦ VIRGINIA
JR O'Donnell
Vanderbilt -1.5
Members move goes to the Vandy Commodores here guys as this 3:30 pm Liberty Bowl move is super sharp..... Off a sub par 1-2 paid Friday night , we will kick it up a notch and play the Commes - the 1.5........... come on guys a 6-6 mid range ball club favored by a point & 1/2 over a 9-3 club that has all league players all over the place... huge motivation edges here imo for the pesky Commes as Cinnci snubbed again for a BCS BID ..... We are super high on the Commes leader James Franklin who has the boys ready as this is the 5th bowl game in the schools history.... Play 'n & $$$$$ today on the Commes ..... Commes D is a fast & underrated group that does a ton of things well!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Iowa Under 124.5: This Wisconsin team has played supreme defense this year as they come in having allowed just 44.4 ppg (1st) on 33.3% shooting (1st) and that includes 24.1% from long range (3rd). That is an all around tough defense that seems to be getting tougher as they have allowed just 39.3 ppg on 30.8 % shooting in their last 3 games. Wisconsin on offense has not been that great, but as they have averaged just 67.9 ppg overall, including 64 ppg in their last 8. The Badgers do not worry about putting a ton of points on the board as their defense has just shut everyone down. Iowa does score a bunch (77.9 ppg), but they haven't seen the kind of stifling defense they will face today.The Hawkeyes will look to run (27th in shots taken), but the Badgers are too good to let them To go along with great defense the Badgers play a slow down game as they have averaged just 53.3 shots per game (237th), including just 45.3 shots per game in their last 4 games and that really limits the chances of their opponents to score as well. Not one of Wisconsin's last 8 games have put up more than 124 points and I don't see it happening here either. KEY TREND--- WISCONSIN is 30-12 UNDER after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Virginia Tech Under 125: The Hokies have picked it up on offense of late, but that has been vs really inferior defensive teams and today they step it up in competition. Today the Hokies face an OSU team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg on 39% shooting overall, including 56.5 ppg on 36% shooting at home. The Cowboys will really need that defense as their offense just hasn't been there this year. OSU comes in scoring 67.8 ppg on 41.1% shooting, while in their last 5 games they have averaged just 63.2 ppg on 37.5% shooting. The OSU offense will not have an easy time getting their offense going today as tey face a Hokie team that has played some of the best defense in the nation this year. The Hokies are 37th in poimnts allowed (59.3 ppg), 49th in defensive FG% (39.1%) and 1st in defending the three (22.8%). Points are note easy to come by vs this defense. The last 2 in this series have put up no more than 116 points and with both teams playing excellent defense I'll look for the same kind of result here.
MTI Sports
Nuggets at Lakers
Prediction: Under
The Nuggets are 0-7 OU (-10.2 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Nene was not the Nuggets' high scorer. The Lakers are 0-11 OU (-13.2 ppg) after a win in which Derek Fisher had more turnovers than assists. Take this one UNDER.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. ISLANDERS -½ +137 over Edmonton
Don’t be surprised to see the Islanders go on a little bit of a run. What’s so fascinating about this team is that they’ve scored the least amount of goals in the NHL and if all things are truly equal, they could go on a huge scoring spree any time now. The Islanders are loaded with goal scorers and point producers. Michael Grabner (26 goals in the last 44 games a year ago), John Tavares (29 goals last year), Matt Moulson (33 goals last year), P.A. Parenteau (leads team with 30 points), Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo and d-man Mark Streit all have strong offensive credentials. They’ve grossly under-produced this season but it’s unlikely to last. One good offensive outing could open up the floodgates for the Islanders and surely they could go off here against an Oilers team that is not only reeling but is in a highly unusual situation. The Oilers played in Vancouver on Monday and Minnesota on Thursday. They’ll start at 1:00 PM EST here, making this the third different time zone in succession this week. One really has to wonder when the last time the Oilers played a 1:00 PM start on the east coast? Probably never and it’s equivalent to a 10:00 AM local start for them. The Oilers have dropped six of seven and things don’t figure to get any easier in this extremely difficult scheduling spot. Play: N.Y. Islanders -½ +126 (Risking 2 units).
NEW JERSEY +120 over Pittsburgh
These two rivals have played just once this season with the Penguins winning 4-1 back in October. A lot has happened since then and one of those occurrences has been the rejuvenation of the Devils after an off year. In no way should New Jersey be a dog in their own barn against the banged up Pens. The Devils have won eight of their last 11. They’re just getting better with each passing game and they’re healthier than they’ve been in two years. The Devils top three lines are as good as any in the game. Man, this team is still undervalued and we’ll stay on them for as long as that continues. The Pens are solid too but outside of goaltending they have no edge here whatsoever. Pittsburgh has a long injury list to key players and they’re just two games above .500 on the road. Regardless of the outcome, there is not a game on the board today that offers up more value than the Devils as a pup at home. Play: New Jersey +120 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +158 over DETROIT
We’re going to play this in regulation only because the Blues are 0-5 in shootouts with one goal in 17 attempts. These two have played three games this season with St. Louis holding a 2-1 lead. All three games were decided by a single goal and the Blue Notes have had a lead in all three games. Brian Elliott is 14-4 with a 1.63 GAA and it’s becoming more and more evident that he’s the real deal and not a half season fluke. The Red Wings need no introduction. They’re a top outfit that usually doesn’t lose at home. However, our philosophy has always been to look for value and let the chips fall where they may. Hence, there’s little doubt that the Blues are being offered too much weight here when you consider how well they’ve played for the past two months, how they’ve fared against Detroit and that they rarely lose with Elliott between the pipes. The Blue Notes played here in Detroit on Tuesday and lost 3-2 after being up 2-0 going to the third. They were without T.J. Oshie and Vladimir Sobotka. Oshie is definitely back while Sobotka’s return is probable and the Blue are better with that pair in the lineup. Play: St. Louis +158 (Risking 2 units).
WUNDERDOG
Idaho vs. Boise State
Pick: Idaho +5.5
The Idaho Vandals are 7-6 and have hung tough in every game they have played on the season. This is a team that has a lot of weapons out on the perimeter where they shoot 42.5% from three, so if they shoot their average it is going to keep them in a lot of games. Boise State has lost four times all to quality opponents, and is a bit overpriced here as Idaho is still very much under the radar at this point of the season. Boise St. has played well below the line, losing their last four ATS, and is now 1-10 ATS following a straight-up loss, and 10-27 ATS following an ATS loss. This is a bigger game for an in-state rival for Idaho, so look for the Vandals to be in it to win t at the end. Play on Idaho.
Freddy Wills
Providence vs. Georgetown
Play: Providence +14
Providence has been competitive they just got blown out by St. Johns though and now they go on to face Georgetown. This line is a bit high because of Providence loss and Georgetown's road win against Louisville. That was a major upset on the road for Georgetown and I think Providence comes in trying to prove they will be competitive within the Big East they'll play in the game all day long and cover this spread. It's a let down spot for Georgetown here.