Tony Stoffo
Gonzaga vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier -3
CBK Free Play Gonzaga at Xavier With all their suspensions served and a trip to Alaska - I definitely can see the Musketeers getting back on track today in this spot against Gonzaga. Plus with their recent failures due to the missing players and travel we are getting a great number on Xavier here today. Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulldogs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic 10.
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver +6/+180 over L.A. LAKERS
3:30 PM EST. It’s such an interesting year in that teams’ stock rise and fall so quickly due to the compact schedule thus resulting in more lopsided scores than we’re accustomed to seeing. Case in point are both the Lakers and Nuggets. Denver has opened the year 2-1 with all three games being decided by double digits. The Lakers opened up as a dog at home against Chicago. They blew an 11-point lead with three minutes to go and lost it with four seconds remaining. They followed that up with a loss in Sacramento and as a result of opening 0-2, they were a small 5½-point favorite over Utah. They trounced the Jazz by 25. Finally, the Lakers were a 4½-point favorite over the Knicks on Thursday and won going away by 17. If the Lakers were a 5½-fav over a Jazz team in total chaos and a point less against the Knicks, why are they the same price against Denver as they were against Utah? That’s an overreaction to two blowout wins in the same way the under-reaction was to its two opening season losses. The Lakers bench is rather weak and this is its fifth game since Christmas. The wrath of the schedule maker will affect teams with weaker benches hard and the Lakers fall into that category here. Play: Denver +5½ (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) Play: Denver +199 (Risking 1 unit).
SACRAMENTO +107 over N.Y. Knicks
The Knicks came into this season amidst a lot of hype that they were on the verge of greatness. That’s the influence of the New York press for you. In three games thus far, the Knicks look nothing like contenders. They have no true point guard that can give them solid minutes every night and they have a coach that does not care about defense. They were lucky to win on opening day against the Celtics. They subsequently got torched in back-to-back games in Golden State and in L.A. against the Lakers. There’s nothing in the Knicks play that suggest a turnaround. Meanwhile, the Kings are 1-2 after playing the Lakers, Portland and Chicago. That’s a difficult trio and they were rock solid in both home games against the Lakers and Bulls. Tyreke Evans has recovered from his foot problems and has resumed attacking the basket at will. Having an energetic, free-throw-creating machine in the backcourt is a huge edge in the Kings favor. The Kings look better than they’re getting credit for while the Knick hype has not subsided yet but the pressure is mounting. Play: Sacramento +107 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT +125 over Indiana Pinnacle
We’re not going to suggest that the Pistons are even close to being the same caliber as the Pacers because they’re not. However, if the better team won and covered every night, we’d all be rich and this is one of those “red-flagged” games. Indiana is 3-0 while Detroit is 0-3. All three Detroit losses have been by 11 or more and as a result, they’re 0-3 versus the spread. The masses are on the Pacers here and we can understand why. We’re urging caution here because it could very well be a trap game. Indiana played last night and went into OT against Cleveland. Their plane was delayed and they didn’t get into Detroit until 3:30 AM this morning. By the time they got to their hotel and settled in, it was close to 5:30 AM. It’s the Pacers third game in four days and tail end of back-to- backs. Being New Year's this one starts a little earlier too, benefitting the host. This is a very difficult spot for the Pacers, as the line confirms and one we intend to take advantage of. Play: Detroit +125 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee Tech -5.5 over TENNESSEE MARTIN: (Added) Gotta believe that Tech is a bit embarrassed after losing by 15 to SIUED last time out as 11 point road favs. What better way for this team to try and get back on track than a game vs the Skyhawks. Tenn Tech has really dominated this series of late going 5-0 and have outscored the Skyhawks by 13.2 ppg in the 5 games. The Golden Eagles have averaged 84.6 ppg in the last 5 meetings and will face a Skyhawk team that has allowed 73.9 ppg (293rd) and they are dead last in the country in defensive FG% (51.8). On offense Tenn Martin hasn't been much better as they have averaged just 61.9 ppg (299th) on 41.3% shooting (255th) and they are 301st in 3pt shooting (29.4%). This is not a good team mat either end of the floor and one good make a case that their numbers are skewed a bit due to SOS (40th, KenPom), but this team has also 0-3 vs Non-line Division 1 teams and they also beat Division 2 Bethel at home by just 3 points. The Skyhawks have gone just 3-7 ATS in their lined games and of their 12 losses, all have been by at least 6 points and 10 of the losses have been by 9 points or more. This is a bad team that must face a better team that is angry off an embarrassing loss. Too much motivation and too many edges for the Golden Eagles to think that they can't win this one by DD. KEY TREND--- TENN-MARTIN is 9-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
4 UNIT PLAY
Michigan State -7 over NEBRASKA: (Added) The Cornhuskers sit at 8-4 on the year and 6-3 at home, but really how good are they. Last time out this team played their first ever Big 10 game and were crushed by Wisconsin 64-40. Prior to that game hey had come in on a 4 game win streak, but in that streak they beat C.Michigan at home by just 3, Alcorn State at home by just 14 and Florida GC at home by just 1 point. Are you serious? Plus they also have a home loss to a weak Wake forest squad on the resume. This is not a good team at all and now they must face one of the hottest teams in the country in Michigan State. Michigan State after starting the year at 0-2 the Spartans have reeled of 12 straight wins, that have included a road win over Gonzaga and a 15 point home win over previously unbeaten Indiana an they have won all but 1 game by 9 points or more. The last time out for Nebraska they shot just 30.6 % vs a tough Wisconsin defense and it won't get easier for them here as the Spartans have allowed teams to shoot just 37.7 % from the field this year. The Husker defense has not played that bad this year (61.3 ppg on 41.6% shooting), but the Spartans have rolled on offense this year averaging 77.1 ppg on 47.6% shooting. Both Spartan offensive numbers are in the top 45 in the country. At 8-4 the Huskers are still not a good team and they will get their 2nd dose of reality in a row as Sparty takes this one by DD. KEY TREND--- NEBRASKA is 1-14 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Iowa Under 124.5: This Wisconsin team has played supreme defense this year as they come in having allowed just 44.4 ppg (1st) on 33.3% shooting (1st) and that includes 24.1% from long range (3rd). That is an all around tough defense that seems to be getting tougher as they have allowed just 39.3 ppg on 30.8 % shooting in their last 3 games. Wisconsin on offense has not been that great, but as they have averaged just 67.9 ppg overall, including 64 ppg in their last 8. The Badgers do not worry about putting a ton of points on the board as their defense has just shut everyone down. Iowa does score a bunch (77.9 ppg), but they haven't seen the kind of stifling defense they will face today.The Hawkeyes will look to run (27th in shots taken), but the Badgers are too good to let them To go along with great defense the Badgers play a slow down game as they have averaged just 53.3 shots per game (237th), including just 45.3 shots per game in their last 4 games and that really limits the chances of their opponents to score as well. Not one of Wisconsin's last 8 games have put up more than 124 points and I don't see it happening here either. KEY TREND--- WISCONSIN is 30-12 UNDER after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Virginia Tech Under 125: The Hokies have picked it up on offense of late, but that has been vs really inferior defensive teams and today they step it up in competition. Today the Hokies face an OSU team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg on 39% shooting overall, including 56.5 ppg on 36% shooting at home. The Cowboys will really need that defense as their offense just hasn't been there this year. OSU comes in scoring 67.8 ppg on 41.1% shooting, while in their last 5 games they have averaged just 63.2 ppg on 37.5% shooting. The OSU offense will not have an easy time getting their offense going today as tey face a Hokie team that has played some of the best defense in the nation this year. The Hokies are 37th in poimnts allowed (59.3 ppg), 49th in defensive FG% (39.1%) and 1st in defending the three (22.8%). Points are note easy to come by vs this defense. The last 2 in this series have put up no more than 116 points and with both teams playing excellent defense I'll look for the same kind of result here.
1 UNIT PLAY
COLORADO -16.5 over Utah: (Added) The Utes have been horrible at 3-9 this year and when the have been installed as a dog of 9 or more they are just 1-5 ATS and have been outscored by at least 19 points in everyone of those games. Colorado is 8-4 on the year and have won 3 in a row, including a 58 point win vs New Orleans last time out, so this team is brimming with confidence right now. They should have no problems with the Utes here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
UCLA/ Illinois Under 47: Google News play. Both of these teams are a mess and i really feel that it will make for a sluggish bowl game, making the UNDER the play here. Illinois may have grad assistants running their offense today and I can't expect too many creative plays from them. No Matter what this Illinois team will look to run the ball at a UCLA defense that has allowed 101.5 ypg on the ground this year (95th). On the other side of the ball a pathetic UCLA passing offense will want no parts of the Illini's 4th ranked passing defense, so I look for them to pound away with their 29th running game (190.7 ypg) vs an Illinois run defense that is 41st in the nation (132.7 ypg). With both teams being a mess and looking to run in this one, and the fact that the last 4 games in this bowl has averaged just 36.5 ppg, i will look for this one to stay well Under the total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under if a team (ILLINOIS) is an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game and are playing a team with a poor rushing defense (190-230 RY/game). This play is 40-19 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Northwestern +10 over Texas A&M: Google News play. I really like this play. The Aggies had a good year on offense this year, but, but they blew too many leads thanks to a leaky pass defense that it lead to the firing of Mike Sherman. So the question here is will this team be up for this one after they ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and had National Championship aspirations for much of the early part of the year? I say know. Northwestern, on the other hand, is thrilled to be here and they have the extra motivation of trying to end a 62 year bowl drought in Evanston. The Aggies can and will put up points this year, but Dan Persa and the Cats have also had a fine year and they will attack the 113th ranked Aggie pass defense, which will lead to good success. The Cats have not been that bad on the road this year as they beat Nebraska, had a big lead over Illinois before losing late and they were tied with Iowa heading ointo the 4th quarter be for losing by 10, so they know how to play on the road. The Aggies offense will help them win outright here, but its their defense that will help the Cats to cover.
Auburn -3 over Virginia: This year's Chick-fil-A Bowl features an intriguing matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers of the ACC and the Auburn Tigers of the SEC. Really it has been the Cavaliers defense that have gotten them this far as they come in allowing 343.2 total ypg while surrendering 22.2 ppg to opponents. The Cavaliers are solid against the run, yielding just 3.7 yards per attempt. The pass defense has been weak, however, as opposing QBs have six more TDs than INTs and are averaging 12.5 yards per completion. Auburn has struggled at the QB position this yea, but with the extra prep time they should come up with a very offensive wrinkles to help the pass game vs a suspect Virginia pass defense. The Tigers will have to pass a bit more as they are without RB Dyer, who has been suspended. On defense the Tigers have been suspect, but this Virginia offense is nothing to write home about. Virginia has the clear advantage on defense and without Dyer the offenses are about even, but the Tigers have a huge edge in special teams and they played in the much tougher SEC, plus word out of their camp is that they are looking to use this game as a potential springboard for a National Title run next year. Tigers by at least a TD.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas A&M/ Northwestern Over 69.5: Google News play. Both of these offenses have been clicking this year, while the defense have not held up their end of the bargain. The Cats can pass the ball as they r6anked 34th in passing and they should have a field day throwing vs this pathetic Texas A&M pass defense that ranks 113th in the nation. The Aggies may be without their top 2 RB's and that could have Tannehill looking to throw, although the Cats are worse vs the run (90th) than the pass (64th). Still this Aggies offense will put up their fair share off points, but their defense has allowed 38.6 ppg and 444.3 ypg on the road this year and that will have the Ctas being able to put up plenty of points. I expect this one to go down to the wire with the Cats keeping close, while the game goes over the total. Aggies 41-37.
Utah +2 Over Georgia Tech: With the extra prep time teams seem to really figure out this option offense of Georgia Tech as they last 3 bowls they have been in they have averaged just 8 ppg. Now a very solid Utah squad that allowed just 15.8 ppg in their last 5 games will get a crack at this Tech offense. The Utes are 31st in total defense 9344.1 ypg) and 8th vs the run (98.2 ypg) and with the extra time will have a plan to shut down the Tech Ground game that seemed to sputter during much of the second half of the year. Tech has not been that stout on defense (44th overall) and they have allowed 25.8 ppg overall, including 33 ppg in their last 3 games. I expect this average Utah defense should be able to score enough on Tech to get the win.
Tony Karpinski
UCLA vs. Illinois
Play: UCLA +3
The UCLA Bruins have a terrible defense, there is no way of covering that by any means, 6 times giving up 38 or more. But, they also have scored 27 or more 8 times as well. Illinois comes in losers of 6 straight games, not something of momentum in any stretch of the word, losing by an average of 11 in that stretch. They need A.J. Jenkins to step it up to keep in the game. For the UCLA Bruins this is basically a home game, where they did post a strong 5-1 record this year and have something to prove as everyone keeps telling them shouldn't be in a bowl with a 6-7 record, so the crowd will strongly be behind them and his squad, led by Derrick Coleman and his 11 TDs. Going to be a bruiser game and I'm backing UCLA.
Larry Ness
Ohio State vs Indiana
Pick: Indiana
The Hoosiers have been down for quite some time now and even last year, Tom Crean could no better than 12-20 (3-15 in the Big 10). That left him 28-66 in his three years at Bloomington. However, the Hoosiers opened this year 12-0, including the team's last-second 73-72 win over then-No. 1 Kentucky on December 10. The recruiting coup of bringing the 6-11 Cody Zeller to Bloomington was HUGE, as he leads the team in scoring and rebounding (14.2-6.9). The other major contributors are the 6-9 Watford (13.2-5.5), swingmen Oladipo (12.0-5.4) and Sheehy (10.7) plus guards Hulls (11.5-3.7 APG) and Jones III (8.6-3.0-3.5). The Hoosiers average 83,3 PPG (7th) on 50.5% shooting (6th), 45.0% (1st) on threes plus make 73.6% from the FT line. However, Indiana was greeted to a rude awakening in its Big Ten opener. Indiana made just 42.2 percent from the floor at East Lansing against the Spartans (6-of-17 on threes) and were beaten soundly, 80-65. The team now returns home to host No. 2 Ohio St, whose only loss this year came at Kansas 78-67, a game in which Sullinger missed. Ohio St's losses were huge from last year, as Diebler (12.6), Lighty (12.1-4.0-3.3) and the 6-8 Lauderdale (4.2-3.2) were four-year and valuable contributors. However, when Sullinger decided to come back for his sophomore season, Thad Matta knew his team would be among the nation's best. The 6-9 Sullinger is averaging 16.3 & 9.6 but Buford (16.6-4.3-3.6) actually leads the team in scoring. Sullinger isn't the only freshman back for his sophomore season, as the 6-6 Thomas (15.9-4.1) and guard Craft (7.8-4.5 APG) are also major 'pieces' to this year's team. I'm a HUGE fan of this Ohio St team but just like Kentucky found out, winning in Bloomington during the 2011-12 CBB season, will NOT come easy. Indiana is 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 85.4-to-56.8 PPG. I'm taking the points.