BETTORS WORLD
3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas
We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently Sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.
One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.
Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.
In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete. But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.
Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.
Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?
The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number. Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.
Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.
Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.
No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.
We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.
3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.
Jack Clayton
Florida Atlantic at FI
Pick: Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic (4-7 SU/3-8 ATS) has Coach Howard Schnellenberger and a decent offense, but no defense this season. Senior QB Rusty Smith (14 TDs, 5 INTs) is out and junior QB Jeff Vancamp (9 TDs, 1 INT) is in and has played well. Play Florida Atlantic!
Matt Fargo
Arizona U vs. USC
Play: Arizona U +7
If anyone was able to see Arizona last week against Arizona St., they saw the emotion that the Wildcats came out with. There was talk all week about how the Wildcats would some in soft after tough losses against California and Oregon, the latter taking any shot away from a trip to the Rose Bowl. However, they came out just the opposite and if not for a momentum shift in the third quarter, the Wildcats would have likely run away with the game. It was a win nonetheless and they can carry that momentum into their final game of the season against USC which will once again have bowl implications. A bigger bowl means more money and for Arizona, it is one of the few teams that need to rely on this money. Any money made during bowl season gets taken away from what needs to be raised by the staff and boosters and it is a significant chunk. That is a reason why you do not see this team give up late in the season and last year was a perfect example as was last weekend. Arizona could finish as high as a second-place tie and as low as sixth place depending on the outcome of this week’s Pac-10 games. The dream of the Rose Bowl was gone and the Wildcats could have easily folded but instead they rose to the occasion and I expect more of the same this coming weekend. The Trojans got by again last weekend over rival UCLA and you could see the emotion that they put into that game as it got pretty dicey near the end of the game. After a 4-1 start, the Trojans are 4-2 in their last six games but it is a very unimpressive 4-2. Three of those wins came by a touchdown or less while the two losses were by 27 and 34 points so this is not even close to the USC that we are used to. The Trojans outgained UCLA by only 14 total yards which actually snapped a streak of four straight games where they were actually outgained themselves. On the season, USC is +49.7 ypg in yardage differential, the first year since 2001 that the differential has been this low when it was outgained on the season. In contrast, the Wildcats are +96.2 ypg in differential and that is with playing a schedule ranked 12th in the nation compared to USC’s 10th ranked slate. The gap has been closing between these two teams. USC has won seven straight games in this series and Arizona lost the first three games after head coach Mike Stoops took over by a combined 111-33. But in 2006 it was just a 17-point game and the last two years have been wins by the Trojans by only seven points. Clearly those were better USC teams than what is on the field this season so it looks as though we are getting value on Arizona based on the USC name alone. USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a straight up win and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and they have covered four straight in this series, all as underdogs. 3* Arizona Wildcats
Bob Wingerter
Fresno State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -3
Making their first-ever trip to Champaign, the Fresno State Bulldogs close out their regular season this weekend with a matchup against non-conference opponent Illinois at Memorial Stadium. The Bulldogs, who at 7-4 are eligible to make an appearance in the postseason, closed out their Western Athletic Conference schedule on November 21st with a narrow 30-28 triumph against Louisiana Tech at home. The win was the sixth in the last seven games for a Fresno State program that was a mere 1-3 heading into the month of October. Illinois won the first downs 24-17 and the total offense 476-420 at Cincinnati last week, a sign that there is still some life, and also of what it means to have Juice Williams fully healthy. After already making two trips to the Midwest, which has created a major travel toll, and with a likely journey back to Hawaii in a couple of weeks, what gets the Bulldogs interested?
Marc Lawrence
West Virginia at Rutgers
Prediction: Rutgers
Behind the combination of Greg Schiano?s coaching savvy and a gutty defense that has held six foes under 300 yards of offense, the Knights have put themselves into position to win 10 games for only the 2nd time in school history. To do so they will need to defeat the Mountaineers today and capture a 4th straight bowl win to conclude the campaign. West Virginia enters today?s fray off a dramatic win over border-rival Pittsburgh with stat losses in four if its last five games. To that we note the last time they beat the Panthers the Hillbillies lost the following game, 24-19, as 21-point favorites. Couple that with the fact that WVU is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road against winning opposition the under Bill Stewart and 0-7 ATS mark in games against sub .750 opponents off a win. Look for Rutgers to put a wrap on 3rd place honors in the Big East today.
Tom Freese
South Florida at Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut
Connecticut is 21-8 ATS their last 29 home games and they are 7-0 ATS their last 7 games after rushing the ball for more than 200 yards in their last game. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 5-0 ATS off a straight up win. South Florida is 1-4 ATS their last 5 Conference games and they are 1-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games overall and the road team in this series is 0-4-1 ATS. PLAY ON CONNECTICUT -
ALEX SMART
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Under 58
There's no doubt that the offense is firing on all cylinders for HC Brian Kelly right now. The Bearcats dropped 49 points on the Fighting Illini last weekend in the home finale, marking the fifth time over the L/7 games in which they have scored at least 34 points in a game. The numbers are simply staggering across the board for the last unbeaten team standing in the Big East. Cincy ranks #4 in the land in total offense (472.7 yards per game), #6 in passing (321.9 yards per game), and #6 in scoring (39.4 yards per game). Had QB Tony Pike not missed several games due to injury, he'd also be in the running for the Heisman Trophy on top of everything else on the line for the Bearcats in this game. Pike has completed 65.3% of his passes this year for 2,047 yards and a very impressive 23 TDs against just three INTs.
The Panthers had their chance to make a case for a BCS bid even if they had failed to beat Cincinnati this week, but losing in last weekend's Backyard Brawl in Morgantown really made this one a do-or-die for HC Dave Wannstedt's crew. RB Dion Lewis is going to have a ton of pressure on him to perform once again if U-Pitt is headed to an elite bowl game. He has already rushed for 1,441 yards and 13 TDs on the season, as he continues to break all sorts of freshman records at the university. The defense hasn't allowed any team to score more than 22 points on it since NC State scored 38 back on September 26th. Since that point, the Panthers are 4-3 ATS, with the 'under' cashing in six times in the seven games.
These teams have combined to fail to cover five straight spreads between them, which makes backing either squad very difficult. That said; if the Panthers can find a way to contain Pike and the Bearcats explosive offense, this game should be one that ekes its way 'under' the 'total'.
LARRY NESS
San Jose St. @ Louisiana Tech
PICK: Louisiana Tech -23.5
Will Spartan head coach Dick Tomey be looking to get an early start on his retirement? Tomey's Spartans got him his "going away present" last Saturday, as San Jose St beat New Mexico State 13-10. It was hardly a 'pretty' win, as the Spartans barely edged the pathetic Aggies by three points as 11 1/2-point favorites. SJSU averages a pathetic 13.2 PPG on the season and just 9.2 PPG over its last five games. The running game is non-existent, averaging 81.2 YPG, 2.8 YPC and has scored just eight TDs. La Tech went 8-5 last year and won the Independence Bowl but will enter this game a very disappointing 3-8 and on a five-game losing streak. The Bulldogs have played just four home games this year (seven on the road) but have averaged an impressive 38.8 PPG in Ruston while averaging an equally impressive 247.0 YPG on the ground (5.0 YPC). SJSU is 1-8-1 ATS on the year and that follows the team losing its last five games of the 2008 season ATS. It's a big number but let's "lay it!'
Steve Zukiel
New Mexico State vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -47
Okay! Okay! You don't have to have me committed because I made this play. I understand 47 points is an enormous number of points to give up, but Boise State has outscored New Mexico State 105-0 in their last two meetings. This is Boise's last chance to impress the pollsters.Hello!!!! Look for them to absolutely embarrass this overmatched Aggie squad.
Joseph D'Amico
Texas vs. Nebraska
Play: Texas -14
As an underdog TY, Nebraska is 2-0 ATS. However in both games their "D" did everything under the sun and still lost to Virginia Tech 16-15 and eked by Oklahoma 10-3. Along with the loss to VT, Nebraska lost to Iowa 9-7 and was spanked by Texas Tech 31-10. Outside of blowout wins over Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and UL Laffayette, Nebraska is posting just 18.3 PPG. Now they have to face a ferocios Texas offense that is averaging 43.0 PPG. Heisman candidate QB Colt McCoy has won more games (44) than any other QB in NCAA history. His 71.8% completion rate on 27 TD's and 3328 YP is outstanding. He has a strong ground game with RB's Newton and Johnson (808 YR combined). The running game will keep the Nebraska defense careful and allow McCoy to connect with one the nations best receivers in Jordan Shipley (99 rec, 1292 yards, and 11 TD's). Everybody is talking about how good the Cornhusker's defense is. They are ranked 11th in the nation in total "D". But to many of the publics surprise, the Longhorn's stop unit is ranked #5 overall, #1 vs. the run, and #3 in sacks. The swarming "D" of Texas will get to Nebraska QB Zac Lee and force him to make mistakes. The Cornhusker's are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played on fieldturf, 2-5 ATS their L7 conference games, and 2-5 ATS their L7 overall. The Longhorn's are 4-0-1 ATS their L5 on fieldturf, 4-1-1 ATS their L6 conference games, and 7-2-1 ATS their L10 neutral site games. Texas blows 'em up.
Carlo Campanella
South Florida vs. Connecticut
Both of these teams already heading to Bowl games and must favor hosting U Conn (6-5) as the home team is now 5-1 SU during the last six meetings. Final home game is the perfect spot for Connecticut to remain a money maker and improve on their 9-1 ATS record this season. U Conn RBs Todman and Dixon have combined for 1,996 rushing yards and 27 Touchdowns should allow them to control the clock against a South Florida (7-4) defensive unit that's allowing 139 rushing yards per game this year. South Florida is just 1-5 ATS during their last 6 games as their defense has now allowed 31 points or more in 4 of those last 6 efforts. That end of the season defensive breakdown could be trouble for South Florida, as we find Connecticut at 9-1 ATS when they score 28 points or more since last season.
7* Play On Connecticut
Black Widow
1* on Washington +7
The motivational edge in this one is with Washington on Senior Day. California cannot win the Pac-10, and coming off a huge upset win of Stanford on the road last time out, the Bears will let down Saturday in Washington. The Huskies have won 5 of their last 8 home meetings with Cal, including a 37-23 home win in 2007 as a 6.5-point underdog. The Huskies are 4-2 at home this season, with all of their wins coming on their home turf. That includes big wins over both USC and Arizona, two teams the same caliber as the Bears. Cal is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a road win over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington and the points.
Jim Feist
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida Intl
Play: Under 63
Florida Atlantic (4-7 SU/3-8 ATS) had senior QB Rusty Smith (14 TDs, 5 INTs), but they have turned things over to junior QB Jeff Vancamp (9 TDs, 1 INT), with the team averaging 27 ppg. They lost two games by 2 points apiece, and lost 27-20 at home to Middle Tennessee despite and a 29-23 win over winless Western Kentucky. Florida International (3-8 SU, 4-5 ATS) is an average offensive with 214 yards passing and 23 ppg. The weather is windy (13 MPH winds) with 60% chance or rain. Florida Atlantic won just 24-20 a year ago and this total is too high. Play Florida Atlantic/Florida International Under the total.
Jay Schecter
HAWAII +12½ over Wisconsin
Here is what’s at stake for Hawaii this Saturday: Win and they play in their Hawaii bowl against former coach June Jones and Southern Methodist. Lose and the season is over. Understand this about College Football – motivation plays an incredible role in determining the outcome of a game. While the motivation factor for Hawaii is as high as it’s going to be, the same can not be said for Wisconsin. Wisconsin must travel to Hawaii to play in a game that means very little to them in the grand scheme of things, as their fates have already been determined. Wisconsin will play in a bowl game against a good SEC or Big 12 team regardless of this games result and one could understand if they choose to go through the motions Saturday. Wisconsin is a double-digit road favorite for a reason, however, as they lead the Big 10 in points per game but have not defeated any notable teams. Wisconsin scheduled very, very lightly, not playing a road game until October 3rd and only won 2 road games the entire season. Hawaii is rolling, having won 4 straight to put themselves in this win-and-their in position. Hawaii defeated Navy at home, a big win that they absolutely needed and that shows what this team can do when it plays with a sense of urgency. Quarterback Bryant Moniz has played adequately this year, averaging 244 passing yards per game to go along with a 13-8 touchdown to interception ratio. Moniz has been injured this season and probably hasn’t practiced as much as Coach Greg McMackin would have liked, but he gives Hawaii the best chance to win this Saturday. Prepare for a shootout and maximum effort from the Warriors as they look to play against their old coach this bowl season. Wisconsin has the talent advantage but it won’t play as big a role as it would if this was the first game of the year. Take the points. Play: #326 Hawaii +12½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
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SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(1) Florida (12-0, 6-5 ATS) vs. (2) Alabama (12-0, 7-5 ATS)
(at Atlanta)
For the second straight year, Florida and Alabama take undefeated records and the nation’s top two rankings into the Georgia Dome, with the winner claiming the SEC title and a coveted berth in the BCS Championship Game.
The Gators completed regular-season play with last Saturday’s 37-10 rout of Florida State, holding off a late Seminoles drive to cover as a 25½-point home favorite. In his final home game, QB Tim Tebow accounted for all five of his team’s touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) and 311 of his team’s 545 total yards, while the defense limited Florida State to 281 total yards. Florida had a 311-83 rushing edge.
Florida has the nation’s longest winning streak at 22 in a row – the longest in school history – with 20 of those victories being double-digit blowouts. The Gators are 15-5 ATS in lined action during their winning streak (all as a favorite), and they’ve held all 22 opponents to 21 points or less. Today, Urban Meyer’s team is gunning for its third league championship in the last four years.
The Crimson Tide barely kept their national championship hopes alive last week, rallying for a 26-21 victory over archrival Auburn, never threatening to cover as a 10-point road favorite. Alabama fell behind 14-0 less than 10 minutes into the game and didn’t lead until QB Greg McElroy hit Roy Upchurch with a 4-yard TD pass with 1:24 to play. Alabama got outgained 332-291, and despite having one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and the best rushing defense, the Tide were dominated on the ground by the Tigers (151-73). Star RB Mark Ingram had a season-low 30 yards on 16 carries and left on the game-winning drive because of a hip injury, but Ingram is expected to play today.
Alabama has gone undefeated each of the last two regular seasons (23 straight wins), but came up short in its last year’s SEC Championship Game against Florida (31-20 loss as a 10-pont underdog) followed by a blowout Sugar Bowl loss to Utah (31-17 as a 9½-point chalk).
This is the seventh meeting between these teams in the SEC Championship Game, with Florida going 4-2 SU and ATS in the previous six. Last year in this event, Tebow had 216 passing yards and three touchdown passes and also led Florida in rushing (57 yards) in the 11-point win. The Crimson Tide actually had a 20-17 lead going into the fourth quarter before the Gators scored twice in a 6½-minute span to get the win and the narrow spread-cover.
The Gators also defeated Alabama 28-13 in the 2006 regular season, but failed to cover as a 16½-point home chalk. In fact, even with last year’s non-cover, the Tide are still on a 7-1-1 ATS run in this rivalry, all as an underdog.
Florida’s offense averages 36.5 points and 451.3 total yards per game, including 236.7 rushing yards per game (5.6 per carry). However, the Gators were held under 30 points in six of their eight SEC victories (average of 27.6 ppg). Tebow had a stellar senior season both through the air (66.4 percent completions, 2,166 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs) and on the ground (796 rushing yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 13 TDs).
Alabama was inconsistent offensively all season, scoring 31 points or more in eight of 12 games while averaging just 19.5 ppg during a four-game stretch of SEC contests in the middle of the season. For the season, the Tide put up 31.7 points and 407.6 total yards per game, including 213.1 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). While McElroy has had a solid season (60.8 percent completions, 2,211 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs), the key to the offense has been Ingram, who ranks sixth in the nation in rushing (1,429 yards, 119.1 ypg), averaging 6.5 ypc with 12 TDs. He also averaged 8.8 yards on 28 receptions with three additional TDs.
These teams field the nation’s top two stop units. Florida ranks first in scoring defense (9.8 ppg allowed), first in total defense (233.1 ypg), first in passing defense (143.2 ypg), eighth in rushing defense (89.9 ypg), first in rushing TDs allowed (6) and second in passing TDs allowed (6). Alabama is second in scoring defense (10.8 ppg), third in total defense (234.1 ypg), second in rushing defense (77.3 ypg), fifth in passing defense (156.8 ypg), fourth in rushing TDs allowed (5) and fourth in passing TDs allowed (8). The Gators held nine of 12 opponents to 14 points or less – including the last four in a row – while the Crimson Tide limited nine of 12 opponents to 15 points less.
In addition to their 15-5 ATS mark during their 22-game winning streak, the Gators are on ATS runs of 21-8 as a favorite, 4-0 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 6-0 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and 20-6 versus winning teams, but they did fail to cover in four of their last five SEC contests.
Alabama went just 2-4 ATS down the stretch and is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Tide are 17-9 ATS in their last 26 overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from Tuscaloosa and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against SEC opponents.
The over is 6-2 in Florida’s last eight neutral-site games, but otherwise the Gators are riding “under” streaks of 8-2 overall, 8-1 in conference play, 7-1 against winning teams and 7-0 when coming off a spread-cover. Alabama carries “under” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 8-2-1 in conference play and 13-6 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. Lastly, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s SEC Championship Game barely staying under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(3) Texas vs. (21) Nebraska
(at Arlington, Texas)
Texas looks to lock up the Big 12 title and a bid in the BCS Championship game opposite the Florida-Alabama winner when it battles Nebraska for the league crown at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Longhorns concluded the regular season with a tougher-than-expected 49-39 victory over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night, failing to cover as a 20½-point road favorite. Texas fell behind 7-0 just 75 seconds into the game, but never trailed thereafter, although the Aggies closed within 42-39 with 7:10 remaining before the Longhorns returned a kickoff 95 yards to ice the victory. Senior QB Colt McCoy had a monster night, going 24-for-40 for 304 yards with four TDs, while also rushing 18 times for 175 yards and another score. Although Texas finished with 597 yards, its normally stout defense got carved up for a season-high 532 yards.
Since a 16-13 win over rival Oklahoma as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17 in Dallas, the Longhorns have scored, 41, 41, 35, 57, 51 and 49 points in their last six outings – winning those six games by an average of 27.8 points – while going 4-2 ATS (4-1 ATS in Big 12 play). McCoy has guided Texas to a 30-2 record since October 2007, with the only losses being upset defeats on the road at instate foes Texas Tech (39-33 last year, giving up the winning touchdown with one second left) and Texas A&M (38-30 in the 2007 regular-season finale).
Nebraska clinched the Big 12 North title with a 17-3 home win over Kansas on Nov. 21, then wrapped up the regular season with last Friday’s 28-20 victory at Colorado, extending its winning streak to five in a row. The Cornhuskers failed to cover as a 10-point road chalk last week when they surrendered a 56-yard TD pass on the final play of the game, dropping to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Prior to the final play against the Buffaloes, Nebraska had a whopping 403-161 edge in total offense, and it scored more than 20 points for just the third time in eight Big 12 games.
This is Texas’ first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game since 2005, when it routed Colorado 70-3 as a 26½-point favorite en route to the national championship. Nebraska last appeared in this contest in 2006, losing 21-7 to Oklahoma as a 3½-point ‘dog.
The teams have split two meetings in the Big 12 title game, with Texas winning 37-27 as a massive 20½-point underdog in 1996, and Nebraska prevailing 22-6 as an eight-point chalk in 1999. The Longhorns have has won all four meetings against the Cornhuskers this decade, most recently squeaking out a 28-25 win in 2007, falling way short as a 20½-point home favorite. While the Longhorns have won four in a row and seven of eight in this rivalry dating to 1996, Nebraska is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four series clashes. Additionally, the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight battles.
With McCoy (71.8 percent completions, 3,328 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs) leading the charge, Texas is third in the nation in scoring (43 ppg), 11th in total offense (451.5 total ypg) and 13th in passing offense (287.7 ypg), while also churning out 163.8 rushing ypg. Despite the inability to slow Texas A&M last week, the Longhorns’ defense is still yielding just 15.4 ppg (9th), 264 total ypg (5th) and 62.6 rushing ypg (1st). Opposing ball-carriers average just 2 yards per tote against Texas, the lowest average in the nation, and the ‘Horns have given up just five rushing TDs all season.
The Huskers netted only 18.8 ppg in eight Big 12 contests, and for the season they’ve averaged 100 less passing yards per game (187.4) than Texas. However, Nebraska’s defense carried the team all year, allowing more than 20 points just once (in a 31-10 home loss to Texas Tech). The Huskers rank third in the nation behind Florida and Alabama in scoring defense, yielding just 11.1 ppg, and they’re 11th in total defense (291.4 ypg).
Texas is on ATS hot streaks of 4-2-1 overall (4-1-1 in conference), 7-2-1 at neutral sites and 4-0-1 when playing on artificial turf, but the Longhorns are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against winning teams. The Huskers’ 2-5 ATS slump has all come in conference play, but they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog (3-0 last three), 7-2 ATS in their last nine away from Lincoln, Neb., and they’ve cashed in seven of 10 versus winning teams.
The Longhorns are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in Big 12 action, 4-1 on artificial turf and 5-2 in December, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven at neutral venues. With its strong defense and sub-par offense, it’s no surprise to learn Nebraska is in the midst of “under” streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-2 in Big 12 play, 6-2 in December, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-0 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six Nebraska-Texas battles have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(12) Georgia Tech (10-2, 7-4 ATS) vs. (25) Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
(at Tampa, Fla.)
The Tigers look to avenge an early-season loss at Georgia Tech as these teams square off in the ACC Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium.
Both squads saw long winning streaks halted last week with non-conference losses to instate rivals. Clemson’s six-game run ended with Saturday’s 34-17 setback at South Carolina as a three-point road favorite, getting outgained 388-260, including 223-48 on the ground). Later that night, the Yellow Jackets fell to Georgia 30-24 as an eight-point home favorite, ending an eight-game win streak as they were outgained 415-340, including 339-205 in rushing.
Georgia Tech opened up ACC play with a wild 30-27 victory over Clemson, falling short as a five-point favorite, then lost the next week at Miami (33-17 as a four-point underdog) before ripping off eight consecutive wins (7-1 ATS), including seven in conference (6-1 ATS) to claim the Coastal Division title. The Tigers started out 2-3 (1-2 in ACC action) before going on a six-game winning streak (5-0 in the ACC) to rally for their first Atlantic Division crown. Clemson hasn’t won an ACC title since 1991.
When these teams hooked up in the second week of the season in Atlanta on Sept. 10, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead less than 20 minutes into the game, getting an 82-yard touchdown run and an 85-yard punt return for a score in the first quarter. However, the Tigers clawed back and actually jumped ahead 27-24 early in the fourth quarter before the Yellow Jackets got two field goals of 34 and 36 yards, the last coming with 57 seconds remaining, to steal the win. The Yellow Jackets had a 418-386 advantage in total offense, rushing for 301 yards. Both QBs – Clemson’s Kyle Parker (15-for-31, 261 yards, 3 TDs) and Tech’s Josh Nesbitt (3-for-14, 83 passing yards, 91 rushing yards) – threw two interceptions.
The Yellow Jackets have won three in a row and five of the last six in this rivalry, with the teams splitting the cash during this stretch. The underdog is on an incredible 17-4 ATS run in this series (13-2 ATS last 15).
While this is Clemson’s first ACC title game appearance, Georgia Tech appeared in the 2006 contest, falling to Wake Forest 9-6 as a 2½-point favorite.
After the 33-17 loss in Miami on Sept. 17, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24 points in each of their final nine games. For the season, they averaged 35 ppg (scoring 30 or more eight times) and 440.5 total ypg, ranking second in the nation in rushing offense (305 ypg) and rushing TDs (43). Despite getting torched by Georgia, the defense has been solid all year, giving up just 19.5 points and 304.5 total yards per game, including a paltry 169.4 passing ypg.
Clemson has averaged 38.3 ppg in its eight victories (scoring at least 25 points in every contest) but was held to 18.8 ppg in its four losses. Defensively, the Tigers have been inconsistent this year, giving up 14 points or less five times while surrendering 24 or more five times. In their final four games, they gave up an average of 25.8 points, 357.5 total yards and 141.8 rushing ypg.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in four straight games in December, four of five at neutral sites and four in a row when laying points at neutral sites, but otherwise the Jackets are on positive ATS streaks of 15-7 under second-year coach Paul Johnson (7-2 last nine), 5-1 in conference, 5-2 as a favorite, 3-0-1 when laying three points or less and 3-1-1 after an ATS setback. The Tigers are on ATS tears of 10-5 overall since the middle of last season, 8-2 in the ACC, 17-4 as an underdog (2-0 as a pup this year), 6-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 4-1 after a SU loss. However, like Georgia Tech, Clemson has struggled in December (0-4 ATS last four) and at neutral sites (0-4 ATS last four).
The Jackets are on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 in ACC play, 3-1-1 as a favorite and 10-3 when laying three points or less. Clemson has topped the total in four straight games overall, four straight SEC contests and four straight as an underdog, but the under is 4-0 in its last four neutral-site outings. Finally, these teams easily eclipsed the total back in September, ending a 4-0 “under” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(18) Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) at East Carolina (8-4, 5-6 ATS)
Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum leads Houston into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, N.C., for a battle with the Pirates, who get the advantage of defending their 2008 Conference USA championship on their home field.
In their last road game on Nov. 14, the Cougars suffered a 37-32 upset loss to Central Florida as a 3½-point favorite, but they returned home the last two weeks and got healthy in a big way, clobbering Memphis (55-14 as a 22-point chalk) and Rice (73-14 as a 30-point favorite). In those two games, Keenum completed 54 of 70 passes (77 percent) for 728 yards with seven TDs and no INTs, as Houston gained 689 yards against Memphis and 684 versus Rice, while allowing just 344 and 377, respectively. By easily cashing in both victories, the Cougars snapped a two-game ATS slide and improved to 6-2 ATS in their last eight.
East Carolina claimed the C-USA East Division title with a 25-20 home win over Southern Miss last Saturday, coming up just short as a six-point favorite. The Pirates blew a 20-7 lead and found themselves tied at 20-20 with 7:35 to play when they blocked an extra-point attempt and returned it the other way for the game-deciding two points. East Carolina has won three in a row, five of its last six and seven of its last nine, including taking five straight league games (four of them by double digits).
The Pirates get to host this contest because they finished 7-1 in league play (5-3 ATS), while Houston went 6-2 (5-3 ATS). A year ago, East Carolina went to Tulsa as a 12½-point underdog for the Conference USA title tilt and scored a shocking 27-24 win, while the Cougars are returning to the league championship game for the first time since 2006.
These schools did not meet in the regular season this year. Last season, Houston traveled to Greenville and rolled to a 41-24 upset win as a 10½-point road underdog, piling up 619 total yards and allowing just 275, with Keenum going 37-for-45 for 401 yards, three TDs and one INT. Going back to 2003, the Cougars have won three of the last four meetings, including consecutive wins and covers at East Carolina. Still, the Pirates are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes. Also, the underdog has covered in the last three (2-1 SU), and the visitor is on a 5-0 ATS roll.
Houston, which racked up at least 29 points in every game this season and at least 41 eight times, leads the nation in scoring offense (44.9 ppg), total offense (583.3 ypg), passing offense (443.6 ypg) and passing TDs (41). Keenum has been remarkable, completing 70.5 percent of his throws for 4,920 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs. On the defensive side, the Cougars surrender 28 points and 445.2 total yards per game, including a whopping 218.2 rushing ypg, though they did limit four of their last seven opponents (all Conference USA) to 16 points or less.
During their five-game conference winning streak, the Pirates have averaged 38.6 points and 448 total yards per game while giving up only 18 ppg. Including a 16-3 non-conference home loss to Virginia Tech, East Carolina has held six straight opponents – and eight of the last nine – to 21 points or less. QB Patrick Pickney leads the offense, completing only 59.2 percent of his passes for 2,476 yards with 13 TDs and 10 INTs, but the Pirates do net 149.5 rushing ypg. On defense, ECU gives up just 21.2 points, 371.3 total yards and 131.1 rushing yards per game (3.8 ypc).
The Cougars are on ATS runs of 9-3 overall going back to last year’s bowl-game win over Air Force, 5-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in conference, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. East Carolina has cashed in four of five Conference USA contests and 21 of 31 as an underdog, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six against opponents with a winning record.
High-scoring Houston is on “over” tears of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 8-2 against winning teams and 7-1 after a victory of more than 20 points. The over is also 4-1 in East Carolina’s last five, and five of the last six in this rivalry – including three straight at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – have soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER