(5) Cincinnati (11-0, 5-5 ATS) at (14) Pitt (9-2, 6-4 ATS)
In what amounts to a Big East championship game, the fifth-ranked Bearcats head to Heinz Field to take on Pitt, with the winner capturing the conference crown and automatic BCS bowl berth.
Cincinnati welcomed back starting quarterback Tony Pike (arm injury) last Friday, and all Pike did was throw for 399 yards and a record six touchdowns in his first start in more than a month, leading his team to a 49-36 non-conference home win over Illinois. However, the Bearcats came up short as an 18½-point favorite, their third straight non-cover following a 3-0 ATS run. Cincy has now scored more than 40 points five times this year.
Pitt traveled to West Virginia last Friday for the 102nd edition of the Backyard Brawl and lost 19-16 as a one-point road underdog, ending a six-game winning streak. The Panthers battled back from a 16-6 fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game, but West Virginia had the ball last and kicked a 43-yard field goal as time expired to end it. Pitt was held to a season low in points – it had scored at least 24 points in each of its first 10 games – and got outgained 369-325, including 205-146 on the ground.
Cincinnati (6-0) sits alone atop the Big East standings, with Pittsburgh (5-1) all by itself in second place, meaning the winner of this game claims the conference title.
The Bearcats lost three straight times to Pitt after joining the Big East in 2005, going 0-3 ATS, but they ended that slide last year with a 28-21 home win as a six-point favorite. The chalk is 3-1 SU and ATS in the four series meetings, with the winner covering the spread in each contest.
Cincinnati fields one of the most prolific offenses in the country, ranking sixth in scoring (39.4 ppg), fourth in total offense (472.7 ypg) and sixth in passing offense (322 ypg), and the Bearcats even net 150.8 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). Pike and backup QB Zach Collaros have combined to throw for 3,581 yards with 33 TDs against just five INTs.
Pitt is putting up 32.2 ppg with a balanced attack that nets 218.9 passing ypg and 183 rushing ypg (5.2 ypc). QB Bill Stull has been efficient, with nearly 2,300 passing yards and a 19-6 TD-to-INT ratio.
Cincinnati’s defense is really struggling down the stretch, giving up per-game averages of 34 points, 442.7 total yards and 190.7 rushing yards over the past three contests. The Bearcats held their first eight opponents to 20 points or less, giving up an average of only 12.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Pitt’s defense has held seven straight opponents to 22 points or less, giving up an average of just 16.1 ppg during this stretch. For the season, the Panthers yield just 319.6 total ypg and 112 rushing ypg (3.3 per carry).
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 8-3 in Big East action, 4-1 on the road, 16-7-1 against winning teams and 28-11-1 on the road versus opponents that have a winning home record. Pitt is on positive pointspread surges of 5-2 at home, 6-2 in conference, 10-3 on grass and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’re 17-35 ATS in their last 52 after an outright loss.
The over is 13-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 20 road games, but five of its last seven in December have stayed low. Also, Pitt carries “under” trends of 6-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 as an underdog, 7-3 as a home pup and 4-1 in December. Conversely, three of the four meetings between these teams have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
South Florida (7-4, 3-6 ATS) at UConn (6-5, 9-1 ATS)
UConn looks to close the regular season with its third straight victory when it entertains the Bulls in the Big East finale for both squads.
South Florida jumped out to a 5-0 start to the season – including a stunning 17-7 upset at Florida State to end September – but it has since dropped four of six games, including Saturday’s ugly 31-10 loss to Miami (Fla.) as a 3½-point home favorite. A week after outgaining Louisville 538-313 in a 34-22 rout at home, the Bulls finished on the short end of a 401-220 yardage deficit (240-143 rushing) against the Hurricanes.
The Huskies have rebounded from three heartbreaking losses to West Virginia (28-24), Rutgers (28-24) and Cincinnati (47-45) with a pair of impressive wins. They defeated Notre Dame 33-30 as a six-point road underdog on Nov. 21, then hosted lowly Syracuse last week and rolled 56-31 as a 13½-point home favorite. In the win over the Orange, UConn got out-yarded by a hefty margin (489-377), but it scored touchdowns on an 80-yard kickoff return and a 24-yard fumble recovery.
The home team has won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-0-1 ATS), with the Bulls taking a 17-13 decision as a three-point chalk last year. These squads have met four times since each became members of the Big East in 2005, and three of those four were decided by a total of 15 points.
South Florida has scored 17, 14, 0 and 10 points in its four losses, while averaging 37 ppg in its seven victories. Similarly, the defense has surrendered a total of 137 points in the losses (34.3 ppg), compared with just 88 points in the wins (12.6 ppg). All 11 of the Bulls’ games have been decided by double digits, with the SU winner going 9-0 ATS in the nine lined contests.
While South Florida has been involved in blowouts all year, UConn has seen five of its last seven games decided by seven points or fewer, and eight of its 10 lined contests have been decided by eight points or fewer. The Huskies’ five losses have been by a total of 15 points.
The Bulls are in ATS slumps of 1-5 overall, 1-4 in conference play, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 as an underdog. On the flip side, UConn has the best pointspread mark in football this year at 9-1 and is on further ATS runs of 10-1 going back to last year, 20-8 at home, 5-1 in conference, 4-1 as a favorite and 3-1 as a home chalk.
The over is 5-1 in South Florida’s last six conference games, but otherwise the Bulls carry “under” marks of 6-2 on the road, 12-5 as an underdog and 5-1 in December. UConn has topped the total in six straight games overall, three straight at home, three straight as a favorite, four straight as a home chalk and five straight in Big East play.
The under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN
West Virginia (8-3, 4-6 ATS) at Rutgers (8-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Mountaineers head to Piscataway, N.J., looking for their 15th straight victory over Rutgers in the Big East finale for two teams looking to improve their bowl positioning.
West Virginia is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 19-16 victory over rival Pitt as a one-point home favorite, getting a 43-yard field goal as time expired. RB Noel Devine ran for 134 yards, including an 88-yard scamper for the game’s first touchdown. The Mountaineers are 7-0 SU in Big East play during Devine’s three-year career when he rushes for at least 90 yards.
The Scarlet Knights could vault themselves into Gator Bowl consideration with a victory today. Rutgers has won eight of 10 (6-4 ATS) since a season-opening blowout loss to Cincinnati. Last weekend the Scarlet Knights went to Louisville and dominated the Cardinals 34-14 as three-point road favorites. RB Mohamed Sanu rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, and QB Tom Savage threw for 163 yards and a score, with WR Tim Brown accounting for 124 of those yards and the TD.
West Virginia has dominated this series, going 30-4-2 all-time against Rutgers, winning the last 14 games by an average of 26.6 points. The Scarlet Knights are 4-2 ATS in the last six, though, including cashing as a 14-point underdog in last year’s 24-17 loss at West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Jersey, including a dominating 31-3 win as a 6½-point road favorite in 2007. The visitor has gotten the cash in each of the last four contests and five of the last six.
The Mountaineers have followed up a 1-6 ATS slump with back-to-back spread covers, but they’re still on ATS slides of 3-14 after a spread-cover, 0-4 in December and 3-8 against teams with winning records. Rutgers is just 1-3 ATS at home this year, but otherwise is on pointspread tears of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 in December, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-3 in Big East action and 9-3-1 after a straight-up win.
West Virginia is on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall and 6-2 in the Big East, but it is also on “over” runs of 7-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Scarlet Knights have topped the total in seven of 10 Big East games and four of five December contests, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 3-0 at home, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 3-1 as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at USC (8-3, 3-8 ATS)
The Wildcats head to Southern California to take on the Trojans in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with nothing on the line for either squad except their final spot in the Pac-10 conference.
Both teams could end up as high as second or as low as sixth in the final league standings, which is used to determine bowl slots. Regardless of the outcome today, this will be USC’s lowest win total since 2001, and its run of seven straight conference titles (outright or shared) has come to an end.
The Trojans beat crosstown rival UCLA a week ago 28-7 as a 13-point favorite. QB Matt Barkley threw for 206 yards, his highest total in five games, and RB Allen Bradford rushed for two scores in the victory. The Trojans are just 2-2 (1-3 ATS) in their last four games, including blowout losses to Oregon (47-20 on the road) and Stanford (55-21 at home).
Arizona rebounded from a heartbreaking 44-41 double-overtime home loss to Oregon and beat instate rival Arizona State a week ago 20-17 but failed to cover as a 3½-point favorite, with kicker Alex Zendjas drilling the game-winning 32-yard field goal as time expired. The Wildcats offense managed just 265 yards in the win, and QB Nick Foles passed for just 148 yards while injuring his non-throwing hand. He is expected to play today.
USC has won seven straight in this rivalry but has have failed to cash in any of the last four. Also, the Trojans are just 1-4 ATS in the last five battles with Arizona at the Coliseum, including a 20-13 win in 2007 as a 21-point favorite. Last season, USC went to Tucson and prevailed 17-10, but came up short as a 14-point chalk.
Arizona is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight roadies and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a straight-up win, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 8-3 as a ‘dog, 16-6 after a non-cover and 9-4 against teams with winning records. USC ended a five-game ATS slide last week against the hated Bruins, but it still carries a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 2-8 overall (all as a favorite), 2-9 in Pac-10 action, 4-8 in Pac-10 home games, 0-7 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in December.
The Wildcats have stayed below the posted total in four of five overall (all in the Pac-10) and four straight in December, but they are on “over” runs of 4-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 on the highway. The Trojans are on several “under” streaks, including 23-11-1 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 27-13-1 as a favorite, 34-15-2 in Pac-10 action and 22-7 following a spread-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” has been the play each of the last three years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
California (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at Washington (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
The Golden Bears will try to close the regular season with three straight wins when they visit Husky Stadium in Seattle to take on Washington in the Pac-10 finale for both schools.
After back-to-back losses to open the conference schedule, Cal has bounced back to win five of six (3-3 ATS), with the only loss coming at home to now-No. 13 Oregon State. The Golden Bears took last week off after upsetting rival Stanford 34-28 in Palo Alto, Calif., as seven-point underdogs on Nov. 21. They rushed for 242 yards in the win, with Shane Vereen – subbing for injured star RB Jahvid Best – doing most of the damage with 193 yards and three touchdowns on 42 carries.
Washington blanked rival Washington State 30-0 a week ago, covering as a 24½-point home favorite. The win snapped a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) in Pac-10 action for the Huskies, who have still lost six of their last eight (4-4 ATS). QB Jake Locker threw for 196 yards and a TD and rushed for 94 yards and a score in the win over the Cougars.
Cal thumped the Huskies 48-7 as a 35-point home favorite a year ago and the Bears have won six of the last seven in this series (5-2 ATS) and cashed in seven of the last nine dating to 2000. The home team has won each of the last three meetings, including Washington’s 37-23 upset as a 6½-point ‘dog in 2007, Cal’s most recent trip to Seattle. Prior to that, however, the Bears had cashed in five consecutive visits to Husky Stadium.
Cal is on ATS slides of 1-4 on turf, 3-9 as a road chalk, 2-7 when laying points to league foes and 4-8 in Pac-10 road games, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December games, but otherwise it’s all negative ATS trends for Washington, including 6-15 overall, 16-35-2 at home, 26-57-2 in Pac-10 action, 7-22 after a spread-cover and 8-20 at home against teams with winning home records.
For the Golden Bears, the “over” is on streaks of 7-3 on the road, 5-2 as a road favorite, 5-0 against teams with losing records and 3-1 after a spread-cover. Washington is on “over” runs of 7-2 in December, 12-5 at home, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with winning records. In this series, the “over” has been the play in six straight overall, while four of the last five in Washington have soared past the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(10) North Carolina (7-1, 3-4 ATS) at (5) Kentucky (7-0, 2-3 ATS)
The Wildcats put their perfect record on the line this afternoon as defending-champion North Carolina comes calling to Rupp Arena for an annual non-conference clash.
The Tar Heels have rebounded nicely from their first defeat of the season – an ugly 87-71 loss to Syracuse in a preseason tournament at Madison Square Garden – posting three straight wins. Most recently, they toppled Michigan State 89-82 as a two-point home favorite on Tuesday in a rematch of last year’s national championship game. Coach Roy Williams’ young squad has scored 80 points or more in six of its first eight games, averaging 87.3 points during the current three-game winning streak. The Heels are making 52.5 percent of their shots this year, but they’ve surrendered an average of 72.2 points per game, with opposing teams shooting 41.4 percent.
North Carolina has tallied at least 70 points in 45 of 46 contests since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 36 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, the Heels are 84-9 SU.
Kentucky has feasted on a cupcake schedule to this point, as it has faced just one quality opponent. That was Stanford back on Nov. 25 in a preseason tourney in Cancun, and the Wildcats survived 73-65 in overtime, outscoring the Cardinal 10-2 in the extra session but still falling short as a 10-point favorite. Following that contest, John Calipari’s crew came home on Monday and dismantled North Carolina-Ashville 94-57 in a non-lined game. Kentucky has topped the 70-point mark in every game this season, shooting a sizzling 51.5 percent from the field, while holding opponents to 65 ppg (36.5 percent shooting).
These historical programs have met in non-conference action every year this decade, and after Kentucky won the first four (3-0-1 ATS), North Carolina has come back to take the last five (5-0 ATS). Last year, the Tar Heels cruised to a 77-58 win, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite. The last time UNC went to Rupp Arena in 2007, it prevailed 86-77, again cashing by a half-point as an 8½-point chalk.
The Tar Heels have failed to cover in four of their last five true road games, but otherwise they’re on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 9-4 overall, 41-14 in non-conference play, 9-1-1 versus the SEC and 8-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has cashed in 13 of 19 on Saturday, but is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven against ACC foes.
Carolina is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall and 6-2 on the road, but the Wildcats have stayed low in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five of seven non-league contests. Finally, the last two meetings at Rupp Arena went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
Bettors World
5* Alabama +6 over Florida
We've been waiting for this game for 364 days. It was 364 days ago Saturday that undefeated Alabama at 12-0 played 11-1 Florida in the SEC title game with Florida winning the game 31-20 as 10 point favorites, which cost Alabama the chance to play for a National Title. Fast forward one year, and the circumstances surrounding this game could not possibly be any better. Both teams are undefeated at 12-0. They will be playing first, for the SEC Title, and 2nd, for a chance to play in the BCS Title game. Currently, leading sportsbook Bet Jamaica has Florida favored by -5.5 with a total of 41.
It's extremely rare in sports to get a 2nd chance of this magnitude. Last years loss by Alabama was devastating. Yet here they are, a year later, with a chance to make things right. A chance to accomplish what they failed to accomplish one year ago. There are many teams in all sports throughout history that would do anything for a 2nd chance like this. Few get the opportunity. Alabama needs to make the most of it. We think they will.
This years game breaks down much differently than last years. Yes, we bet Alabama a year ago. You can read our write up on that game here. We made the play on Alabama a year ago, despite the fact that the numbers we rely on the most, the numbers that we feel are most indicative of a teams true strength, revealed that the line on the game was actually dead on. You can go back and read that article for yourself, but we will revisit the breakdown briefly here.
A year ago, the yards per point numbers against common opponents suggested that Florida was 9.5 points better than Alabama. There was no question Florida was the better team. Florida's numbers were off the charts. 9.4 on offense and 24 on defense for a +14.5 overall. I've been looking at these types of numbers for 26 years folks. Trust me when I tell you those numbers were phenomenal. Alabama had decent numbers of 11.6 on offense and 16.8 on defense for a +5.2. Good numbers, not great.
The difference between the two teams numbers a year ago suggested that Florida was about 9.5 points better than Bama. Florida won by 11, so as you can see, the numbers were correct. From a strictly numerical standpoint, we should have stayed off the game. However, we felt we had some motivational edges that would make up for the talent difference. Alabama led 20-17 after 3 quarters, and trailed by just 4 with under 3 minutes to go before Florida scored the spread busting touchdown with 2:50 to play in the game.
But this years numbers tell a very different story. There were 7 common opponents this year with both teams obviously going 7-0 against those opponents. But unlike a year ago, where Florida had the better numbers across the board in every category, this years numbers are fairly even. They both averaged 400 total yards of offense. Florida averaged 31 points against these common opponents to Alabama's 29. They both held these teams to an average of 11 points per game. They both averaged 6 yards per play offensively and gave up 4 yards per play defensively.
When you look at the yards per point numbers against these 7 common opponents you see a much different story than a year ago. This year, it's Alabama with the edge. Florida has a 13 on offense and a 20 on defense. Alabama has a 14 on offense and a 25 on defense. So, +7 for Florida, +11 for Bama, edge to Bama by 4 points. Remember, last year these numbers favored Florida by 9.5 and the line was 10. This year, the numbers suggest Bama should be favored yet we're getting 5.5 to 6 points.
Bottom line here is the correct line on this game, meaning the true difference between these two teams from a numerical standpoint, would be anywhere from pickem to Alabama by a field goal. Yet this game opened Alabama -4.5 and was bet up to -5.5 and -6. So the oddsmakers got it right from their perspective. They simply want to attempt to get equal action both ways (a rarity). Had they opened this game pick em, sportsbooks would have been overwhelmed with Florida money. So, the right line from their perspective. From our perspective as players though, the wrong line, and the perfect spot to step in and get some value.
We not only have the numbers working for us but we also have the motivational edges. Revenge can be huge in the right spot. This is the right spot. As mentioned at the start if this write up, it's rare to get a 2nd chance like this, yet here it is, on a silver platter for the Crimson Tide. For these kids, it's the opportunity of a lifetime. Expect them to leave it all on the field on Saturday afternoon.
From a betting perspective we'll sum it up like this for you. Wagering is a long term proposition. You expect to win every wager you make of course, but realize that if you're good, you'll end up hitting around 55-58% over the course of many years. In the past 26 years as a professional handicapper, a game with the same dynamics as this one has come up plenty of times. I've won roughly 56% of those. Slightly higher actually with numbers that are this favorable. Those percentages will likely hold up over the next 26 years. This is just one play in the big scheme of things. It may win, it may lose. But the fact remains, it's a damn good bet.
It's also important to point out that we are not making this play because we think Alabama can hang within the spread and cover. That's not the way to go about betting underdogs. The feeling here is that Alabama wins this game straight up. The points are a bonus. Having said that, you still want the best line you can get. As of this writing on Tuesday, there are a couple of +6's on the board with most books at 5.5. Monitor the lines using the Bettorsworld Free Live Odds feed and make sure you get the best possible number you can.
This play qualifies as are highest rated play of the year.
A 5* Key Release Alabama +6 or more over Florida.
Also note that there is value on the money line here as well at +210 or better. I can tell you with confidence that over the years, with numbers like we see in this game from Bama and Florida, in similar games, there is no way one team wins at a 2-1 clip over the long run. If you took +210 on every game with similar numbers over the last 20 years you would have been handsomely rewarded. Remember, long term profits. Not instant gratification. That's what separates winning bettors from losing ones.
Good Luck, Enjoy the game.
3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas (Good a +14)
We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently Sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.
One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.
Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.
In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete.
But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.
Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.
Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?
The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number.
Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.
Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.
Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.
No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.
We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.............3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Florida at Alabama
Can you really see Timothy Richard Tebow losing this game? If not, you might as well lay the short number with the Gators, who are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons, a stretch that has seen them win only one game by single digits. In addition, the defending National Champs are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Tebow vs. Greg McElroy? C'mon, who do you think we're going with?
Play on: Florida
Rob Vinciletti
Illinois Chicago vs. Wisc Green Bay
Play: Wisc Green Bay -10.5
WGB has bolted out of the gate with a solid 7-2 record this season. Tonight they qualify in a solid college hoops system and several big Power angles. WGB is 15-1 and 11-0 ats vs opponents who score 64 ppg or less, 23-2 vs losing teams,10-1 after scoring 80 or more and have won 20 of 21 times as a home favorite in this range. Tonight they take on an Illinois Chicago team that is not as good as they were last year. They are 8-26 vs winning teams,6-16 after scoring 60 or less and have lost 17 of 18 times as a road dog in this range. They have lost 4 of their first 5 games to open the season and may have a long night here.
LT Profits
Wisconsin vs Hawaii
These season-ending visits to Hawaii are always difficult for Big Ten schools, and such should be the case here when the Wisconsin Badgers visit the Hawaii Warriors.
What makes this trip even more difficult for Wisconsin is the fact that the Warriors actually need to win this game to land an improbable visit in the Sheraton Bowl after a 2-6 start, meaning that Hawaii should have a huge motivational edge.
Remember that the reason Hawaii got off to such a terrible start was because they had made many key injuries to skill position players. However, Coach Greg McMackin has done a spectacular job in his first year at the helm, as he has rallied the troops to a four-game winning streak to even to even their mark at 6-6, setting up this bowl opportunity. They also got a nice prep for the Wisconsin rushing attack by upsetting Navy 24-17 last week.
On the other hand, this game means virtually nothing to Wisconsin, as reports are that they are going to the Champs Sports Bowl regardless of this outcome. Thus, it seems rather easy for the Badgers to be distracted by the local island surroundings here, with this game over what is generally perceived to be an inferior opponent almost an afterthought.
While we agree that Wisconsin has tons more talent here, emotion is very important in college football, and the fact that Hawaii is fighting for a bowl should will them to an inspired performance. Whether or not that will be enough for an outright upset may be questionable, but at the very least, the Warriors should hang within single-digits tonight.
Pick: Hawaii +12.5
MTi Sports
Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Utah Jazz
The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-15.6 ppg) with no rest after a loss in which Al Jefferson had a double double and 0-5 ATS (-7.2 ppg) at home after a loss in which Kevin Love had a double double. Also, Minnesota is 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in which they led by 10+ points and 0-4 ATS (-15.8 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) as a favorite when they won their last two games and both were at home. Lay the points.
Tom Freese
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is 10-4 their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 9-4 their last 13 home games. The Sabres are 4-0 their last 4 games and they are 7-2 when playing with one day of rest. The Rangers are 39-86-6 their last 131 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 3-7 their last 10 road games. New York is 2-7 their last 9 meetings in Buffalo and they are 1-5 vs. Eastern Conference teams PLAY ON BUFFALO -
SEAN MURPHY
West Virginia @ Rutgers
PICK: Rutgers -1
West Virginia is coming off a big win in the Backyard Brawl against Pittsburgh last week, but that came at home. The Mountaineers have been much weaker on the road this season, winning only once in four tries, with that victory coming against a terrible Syracuse squad.
Of course, Rutgers lost to the Orange in Syracuse two weeks ago. That opened up excellent value with the Scarlet Knights last Friday in Louisville, and we took full advantage, backing them in a 34-14 blowout win. Here, I believe that there is still value with the Knights.
Rutgers owns a solid 6-2 ATS record over its last eight games. A lot of bettors have had a tough time erasing the memory of an opening week trouncing at the hands of Cincinnati, but make no mistake, this is a solid team.
Rutgers freshman QB Tom Savage has really come on over the past month, throwing six touchdowns and three interceptions over his last four games. His one off day came in that ugly loss to Syracuse, but keep in mind, the Scarlet Knights were in a clear letdown spot that week, coming off back-to-back conference wins against UConn and South Florida.
West Virginia's offense has run dry in recent games, and it's unlikely they'll find their way against a Rutgers defense that allows just 16.8 points per game on 315.3 total yards per game this season. Note that the Mountaineers have been held to fewer than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They've been outgained in four of their last five games, despite being listed as the favorite in four of those matchups.
Last year a much stronger West Virginia squad failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites against Rutgers. The Mountaineers high-powered offense was held to only 24 points and 333 total yards in that game. This edition has been much easier for teams to gameplan against, and this week, I look for Greg Schiano's squad to finally get over the hump against their Big East rival. Take Rutgers.
BEN BURNS
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
PICK: Chicago Bulls -5.5
I successfully played on the Raptors when these teams faced each other on 11/11. That game was at Toronto though and while the Raptors were well-rested, the Bulls were coming off a hard-fought heart-breaking loss vs. Denver the previous night. I say "heart-breaking," as the Bulls thought they hit the winning shot at the buzzer, only to have the replay assistant say otherwise.
The Bulls will again be playing the second of back to back games for tonight's rematch. However, this time the game will be played at Chicago and this time the Raptors will also be in a back to back situation. I expect that to favor the revenge-minded Bulls.
Note that the Raptors are an awful 2-15 SU and 4-11-2 ATS the last 17 times that they played the second of back to back games, most recently getting crushed at Atlanta, while giving up 146 points in the process. The Bulls, on the other hand, are a solid 7-4 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they played the second of back to back games.
While both teams are playing the second of back to back games, the Raptors' schedule is even more gruelling. In fact, while the Bulls will be playing their fourth game in the past nine days, the Raptors will be playing their fourth game in the last five days and their sixth game in the last nine. Additionally, making matters worse, last night's game went to OT.
Both teams have been much better at home this season. The Raptors are 5-4 SU/ATS at home. However, they're just 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS on the road. Likewise, the Bulls are 5-1 SU at home but just 2-9 SU on the road. Consider laying the points with the revenge-minded home team.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington +7
What a remarkable season its been for the Huskies to win 4 games, with one of those wins against USC, just one season removed from laying a goose egg. It's senior day for the Huskies and they'll be jacked up for this one, treating it like their bowl game. While Cal is bowl bound, this is a team that had Pac-10 title aspirations. So this has been a disappointing season for the Bears. I just can't see them getting up for this game the same way they did for Stanford in their last. In fact, Cal is on a 3-15 ATS slide as a road favorite of 7 points or less and on an 0-6 ATS skid when coming off a road win over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the Huskies.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas/Nebraska UNDER 47
Bottom Line: I'll take the Under here as two of the nation's best defenses figure to make life very difficult for the offenses today. Nebraska is 9-3 to the Under in all games this season because of its strong defense but weak offense at times. The Under is 7-2 in the Longhorns' last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series have come in Under the number. With the Big 12 title, and more, on the line, both these will be amped up for this one. We'll take the Under as the defenses take center stage tonight.
JR TIPS
KINGS at SUNS
The Phoenix Suns are coming off consecutive blowout losses on the road although they have fifteen consecutive home wins and look for their eighth straight victory at home against the Sacramento Kings who are going for their first five-game winning streak in three seasons.Phoenix has only scored 94.5 points per game and shot 42.7 percent in its first set of back-to-back losses and coming off a 126-99 defeat to the New York Knicks and a 107-90 loss to Cleveland this week which was the Suns lowest point total since a 91-90 loss to San Antonio last year on Dec. 25th. The Suns beat the Kings in their previous meeting 139-111 on April 3 last season and posted the franchise's most lopsided home win with a 129-81 victory last year as the Kings have lost their last seven trips to Phoenix by an average of 24.5 points.The Suns have won 12 of 14 overall in this series although this Sacramento team is going for their first five-game winning streak since 2007. The Kings are coming off a 4-0 homestand after Wednesday's 110-105 victory over Indiana as rookie guard Tyreke Evans scored 26 points, including five free throws in the final 44 seconds to get Sacramento back above .500. Evans was the Western Conference rookie of the month in November scoring 20 or more points in nine of his last 11 games and this will be his first test against Steve Nash, the league leader in assists per game with 11.5 averaging 23.0 points and 10.7 assists in three games versus Sacramento last season. The Kings haven't won in Phoenix since 2005 and are 1-6 on the road this season. They will face a Suns teams coming off their 2 worst games of the season and looking to get back on track after two good days of practice. The Kings are have played tough at home although none of those teams have had a winning record and now this young team will have the test of facing a focused Suns team that has won 15 straight at home and has not lost to the Kings in 4 years on their home court.Look for the suns to bounce back in a big way tonight.
TAKE SUNS -11
EZWINNERS
Houston Cougars @ East Carolina Pirates
Play: East Carolina Pirates +2.5
East Carolina has been in this spot before and ECU defensive coordinator Greg Hudson knows how to game plan for this Houston offense. Last season Tulsa had the nations top offense when East Carolina played them for the Conference USA championship in Tulsa. The Pirates defenses forced the high flying Hurricane offense into seven turnovers as East Carolina won the CUSA Championship. This year East Carolina is hosting the championship game and both of Houston's losses came on the road this year. The home field advantage for the Pirates is big as the huge student section will be right behind the Houston bench. The weather could also be a factor for the Cougars offense as it should be cold, wet and the winds might be gusting. Take the points.
Tony Mathews
Wisconsin vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +12
Hawaii kept its bowl hopes alive with an upset win over Navy. On the other hand, Wisconsin comes in off a bye but has little to play for.
Wisconsin has not been a strong road team this season. In fact, Wisconsin road games have been decided by a 3-point win against Minnesota, 18-point loss to Ohio State, 3-point win against Indiana, and a 2-two point loss to Northwestern.
Wisconsin's weakness is against the pass which will allow Hawaii to stay within the 12-point spread.
Take Hawaii +12
BRIAN MARSHALL
Florida Atlanta vs. Florida International
Plays: Over 62.5
We’ll make this real simple; both teams can move the football and score many points, while both teams can’t stop the football and allow many points. In other words, this is the "perfect storm" for a high-scoring game.
In last year's meeting between these two teams, we saw 56 points scored in the fourth quarter alone. In addition, the Over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams.
Take Florida Atlanta/Florida International Over 62.5