DUNKEL
NY Islanders at Tampa Bay
The Islanders look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest. New York is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110)
Game 51-52: Vancouver at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.681; Carolina 11.133
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-155); Under
Game 53-54: Edmonton at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.797; Dallas 12.230
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-175); Under
Game 55-56: St. Louis at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.622; Los Angeles 13.048
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-135); Over
Game 57-58: Detroit at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.633; New Jersey 11.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 59-60: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.578; Florida 10.454
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 61-62: Colorado at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.907; Columbus 11.183
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 63-64: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.237; Boston 11.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over
Game 65-66: NY Rangers at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.288; Buffalo 12.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-160); Under
Game 67-68: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.835; Philadelphia 11.350
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+160); Over
Game 69-70: NY Islanders at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.686; Tampa Bay 11.194
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110); Over
Game 71-72: Chicago at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.987; Pittsburgh 12.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under
Game 73-74: Minnesota at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.400; Nashville 11.759
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-165); Under
Game 75-76: Calgary at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.611; San Jose 12.964
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-155); Under
Game 77-78: Ottawa at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.956; Phoenix 12.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-125); Over
JACK JONES
Penn State +7.5
Penn State is simply catching too many points Saturday on the college hardwood. This team has opened with a solid 5-2 record, earning a couple impressive wins over Davidson and Virginia along the way. Penn State is 14-3 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=15 free throws/game since 1997. The Temple Owls settle for too many jump shots, and that's why they are shooting just 41.6% as a team this year. They are also shooting 27.3% from 3-point range on 18 attempts/game. At the free throw stripe, they get to the line just 14 times/game and shoot at a 62.6% clip. Given those numbers, you can see why the Owls are getting too much respect from the odds makers here. Penn State is averaging 22 free throw attempts/game and shooting them at a 75.7% clip. That's the difference in this game. Take Penn State.
Jimmy the Moose
Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets
The Colorado are averaging 3.00 GPG while giving up 2.93 per contest. Tonight they'll be facing a Blue Jackets team that gives up goals and that will have this young group of forwards looking forward to this one. Colorado has played over the total in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 games played with 1-day rest between action. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team from the Western Conference. The Avalanche have played over the total in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog.
Columbus averages 3.00 GPG while giving up 3.46 GPG. The Blue Jackets have played over the total in their last 4 games overall and in their last 4 vs. a team from the Western Conference. In their last 6 games played with 1-day rest the over is a profitable 5-1. This will be their 4th game in 6 nights and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 times they have been in this situation.
Colorado should have their back-up in net tonight and the Blue Jackets goaltending has struggled recently. The teams have played over the total in 3 of the last 4 meetings and you can expect this one to follow suit.
Play Avalanche/Blue Jackets Over
O.C. Dooley
Alabama/Florida
Pick: Over 41
The oddsmakers had no choice but to "low ball" this total since both Florida (12 ppg allowed) and Alabama (10' ppg allowed) have been outstanding defensively in conference play. But as we all have heard constantly in the hype leading up to this much anticipated contest Florida's top defensive end Carlos Dunlap (7 sacks, 8' tackles for loss) has been suspended on an off the field DUI charge. Dunlap (290 pounds) was the defensive MVP of last year's BCS Title game and soon will be cashing NFL paychecks. The bottom line is that the Gators defensive line has taken a hit which is bad news since Alabama has an angry offensive star who is about to take full advantage. Due to a painful hip pointer injury sustained last Saturday, Mark Ingram was held to just 30 yards on the ground. Despite the injury Ingram took all snaps this week in practice and today will be attempting to make one more "Heisman" trophy statement. Even though he does not receive that much attention, Alabama's quarterback Greg McElroy spent three years at the high school level learning behind future Missouri star Chase Daniel. Basically McElroy is a product of high school football from the gridiron crazed state of Texas and has the ability to put enough points on the scoreboard. Of course Florida has Tim Tebow who accounted for 311 yards and 5 touchdowns last week as his bid for another Heisman Trophy was bolstered. It was Tebow who a year ago at this time took the Gators on his back in the SEC Title game, especially in the fourth quarter when a close contest was broken wide open. Most of you reading this analysis will remember last year's SEC title game when the Gators were without injured star Percy Harvin who arguably was the most dynamic offensive playmaker in school history. Even without Harvin and facing an outstanding defense, Florida was able to put 31 POINTS on the scoreboard as they advanced to the BCS Title game. I am fully aware that this season in conference play both Florida (7-1) and Alabama (5-2) for the most part played "below" the posted spot, but that has only led to a deflated total late this afternoon. My database research indicates that since Urban Meyer has been head coach, Florida has gone a resounding 9-2 OVER versus solid rushing opponents who average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Here is a dynamic 78-PERCENT SYSTEM (26-7 past decade) which takes teams like Florida with a great defense OVER a posted total of 42-or-less points, after a game where the offense put at least 37 points on the scoreboard. That 78% long term system supports the OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +1.67 over DALLAS
Note the 2:00 PM start. The Stars are a decent team but much prefer them as a pooch than a big favorite because they’re just not playing that great at the moment. Dallas is coming off a 3-1 win over the Ducks but they scored two of the flukiest goals of the year and added an empty netter to seal it. Prior to that they had dropped three of four with only win over that stretch coming in extra time against the Bolts. The Oilers are coming off its best win of the year, a 4-1 victory in Detroit. It was a much-needed and timely win and one victory can do wonders for a struggling squad. Remember, the Oilers got off to a 5-2 start but then the injury and flu bugs took over. They have some bodies back and they’re definitely no pushovers. The tag here is pretty sweet, as these Stars in no way can be trusted as a favorite of this magnitude. Play: Edmonton +1.67 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.54 over BOSTON
It’s pretty hard to ignore the Maple Leafs in this spot and at this price. The Leafs are among the hottest teams in the league and after dominating so many teams and losing, the Leafs fortunes have completely turned. They’re getting rock-solid goaltending from Joey MacDonald, an unlikely source indeed, and they’re also getting a tremendous balance of scoring. What’s even more impressive is that the Leafs have scored a power-play goal in just one of its last seven games, yet they’re still winning. The Leafs have won four of five and have picked up points in seven of its last nine. In one of those losses to the Sabres they dominated play in the first two periods and only the goaltending of Ryan Miller prevented them from points in eight of nine games. The Bruins fell in Montreal last night to the then free-falling Habs. The Bruins will travel home to play its third game in four days and a tired Boston team is in no position to be this big a favorite over a Leafs team that is finally having fun and can’t wait to get back on the ice. Overlay. Play: Toronto +1.54 (Risking 2 units).
Calgary +1.52 over SAN JOSE
The Flames have seven regulation losses in 27 games and thus, when a tag like this is being offered on them you can pencil me in with no questions asked. Yeah, the Sharkies are among the elite and some even consider them the best the NHL has to offer. I don’t. After watching as many games as anybody I truly consider the Sharks to not even be in the top five teams. Don’t get me wrong, they’re good and their record speaks for itself but they’re also beatable and have won a number of games this year with a late goal to tie it or some other crazy thing. Anyway, the Flames have it all. They’re tough, they’re solid behind the blue-line and up front they can create scoring opportunities with three very good lines. Rene Bourque back in the line-up is huge, as this guy might be the most under-appreciated player in the game and he always plays against the opposition’s top line. Shut down the Thornton-Heatley-Marleau line and the Sharks chances are not good at all. The Flames seldom come in at this price and when they do, it’s highly recommended to jump on it. Play: Calgary +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +6 over CHICAGO
The Raps history in back-to-back games is not the greatest but six points is just too many to turn down in a game the Raps can not only keep it close but win outright. The problem with the Bulls is a lack of scoring and when they play a team loaded with offense they’ve had nothing but trouble. Some of the Bulls recent losses, and there’s been a ton of those, have been by large margins including a 24-point loss at Portland, a 19-point loss at Denver, another 19-point loss at Utah, not to mention a 10-point loss in Toronto on November 11th. What’s also noteworthy is that this game will be the Bulls 11th in a row in which they’ve had to board a plane and travel to its next destination. Chicago has not played back-to-back home games since Nov 10th, almost a full moth ago. The Raps are coming off a good win in Washington last night and after playing one of the toughest schedules in the league they should be more than ready to take care of a fatigued and offensively challenged Bulls squad. Play: Toronto (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
John Ryan
California vs. Washington U
Play: Washington U +6.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as they take on California set to start at 6:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Washington will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-5 against the MONEY LINE for 84% winners since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line in a game involving two average teams within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents after 7+ games and after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. Here is a 2nd supporting system that has gone 51-21 for 71% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Cal is in a series of poor roles noting that they are just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a road win over the last 3 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. Plus, Coach Tedford is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival as the coach of CALIFORNIA. Take Washington and also play a 1* unit on the money Line.
TEDDY COVERS
Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Orlando Magic -8.5
To call the Golden State Warriors ‘injury riddled’ is something of an understatement. It starts right from the top, where head coach Don Nelson has missed extended time due to pneumonia. Nelson will coach the team tonight, but he won’t go with them on their five game road trip that begins after this contest. He suffered from dizzy spells during the Warriors loss to Houston on Thursday. This team does not have continuity on the practice court or on the game court right now.
Golden State has only seven healthy bodies tonight. Devean George and Anthony Randolph are both hobbled but unable to sit after the injury glut. Brandon Morrow is attending a funeral this evening. Ronnie Turiaf is out with a bad knee. Andris Biedrins, Raja Bell, Kelenna Azubuike, Speedy Claxton and Brandon Wright are all out long term. Guard Monta Ellis: “It's been a bumpy road. Players being hurt. Coach sick. We've got to do what we can with what we've got.”
Meanwhile, Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy isn’t sitting on his laurels, despite a 9-1 run for the Magic, including road wins at Boston, Toronto, Atlanta, Milwaukee and New York. Van Gundy is trying to find ways for the Magic to feed Dwight Howard in the low post more often. Howard ranks among the league leaders in field goal percentage, double-doubles and rebounding.
Van Gundy: “I’m trying to make more of a conscious effort to get him (Howard) the ball. I still think we can get better, but he’s been more aggressive.” Facing a Warriors team without any semblance of a healthy low post presence on the roster should be a perfect elixir for feeding Howard repeatedly, setting the Magic up to win this game by a double digit margin. 2* Take Orlando.
Hollywood Sports
Wisconsin at Hawaii
Prediction: Hawaii
Wisconsin takes a four-day trip to Hawaii to end their regular season. These December trips to Hawaii are always dangerous for the visitors and this situation is compounded by the fact that the Badgers (8-3) have little to play for regarding their bowl berth. Wisconsin finished 4th in the Big 10 and remains a half game ahead of Northwestern (8-5) in overall records. Even with a loss, Wisconsin probably earns an invitation to the Outback Bowl over the Wildcats if Iowa or Penn State is awarded one of the four at-large bids to a BCS Bowl. Hawaii (6-6), on the other hand, needs a win to earn the right to play in the Hawaii Bowl. The Rainbows have won four straight games after defeating Navy by a 24-17 score last week. Hawaii held the Midshipmen's triple option offense to just 333 totals yards. Over the last three games, the Rainbows' defense has held their opponents to only 11 PPG and just 285.7 total YPG. This improving defense complements a dynamic offense that is 3rd in the nation by averaging 334.7 passing YPG. QB Bryant Muniz should be able to move the ball against the Big 10's 8th ranked pass defense that allows over 220 passing YPG. Furthermore, Wisconsin has given up 881 passing yards along with 8 touchdown passes in their last three games. On the road, the Badgers allow 30 PPG. Hawaii typically plays well when they host good teams as they have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has covered just once in their last ten games as a road favorite of more than ten points. Look for Hawaii to make this a close game. Take the points with the Rainbows.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Wisconsin -11.5
Off a tough loss at Northwestern, and with a bye week to prepare, expect the Badgers to bounce back strong with at least a 14-point win tonight. Hawaii simply does not have the horses up front to stop Wisconsin from running the football at will. The Badgers just don't get held to under 100 yards rushing, but Northwestern was able to do that to Wiscy in its last game. That means bad news for Hawaii here as Wisconsin is on a 16-6 ATS run after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game, rolling in these spots by 15.6 points on average. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas/Nebraska UNDER 47
Bottom Line: I'll take the Under here as two of the nation's best defenses figure to make life very difficult for the offenses today. Nebraska is 9-3 to the Under in all games this season because of its strong defense but weak offense at times. The Under is 7-2 in the Longhorns' last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series have come in Under the number. With the Big 12 title, and more, on the line, both these will be amped up for this one. We'll take the Under as the defenses take center stage tonight.
Info Plays
3* on South Florida +7.5
Reasons why South Florida covers
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This is a 40-13 ATS System hitting 75.5% since 1992. UConn isn't the same explosive team offensively without starting QB Cody Endres. They'll get shut down by a superb Bulls' defense Saturday. Bet South Florida on the road.
Michael Cannon
Florida -5' vs. Alabama, at Atlanta, GA
I am 39-26-1 with my last 66 overall free plays.
Take Florida minus the points in the SEC Championship game over Alabama.
Tim Tebow and the Gators have been here, done that. Alabama finds itself knocking on the door for the second straight year, but just like last year they won’t get in.
Alabama just doesn’t have the offense to get it done over Florida here. Sure they have Mark Ingram, who is a Heisman trophy candidate, but that’s about it. Julio Jones is a fine-looking wide receiver, but I don’t trust that quarterback Greg McElroy can make the necessary throws to utilize him as a threat.
Florida has the weapons and speed on both sides of the ball to win this game by a TD. Tebow is perhaps the greatest leader in college football and can will his team to victory here by his actions and words.
The Gators are on ATS runs of 15-5 overall, 21-8 as a chalk, 4-0 at neutral sites, 6-0 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and 20-6 against winning teams.
Alabama is just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall and 2-5 in its last seven as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
Take Florida minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ FLORIDA
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (PK), at Tampa, FL
Take Clemson over Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game at Raymond James Stadium.
This is a rematch of the Sept. 10 battle when Georgia Tech knocked off Clemson, 30-27. The Yellow Jackets opened up a 24-0 lead less than 20 minutes into the game before the Tigers rallied and actually took the lead, 27-24 early in the 4th quarter.
I expect Clemson to get its revenge here.
Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense is engineered by quarterback Josh Nesbitt. But he’s playing with a tender ankle that was injured in last week’s 30-24 loss to Georgia. If Nesbitt isn’t 100 percent, it limits their threats with the option and will allow Clemson to keep it somewhat contained.
The Tigers have the biggest threat on the field in C. J. Spiller. The Heisman candidate can do it all and is a threat every time he touches the ball. His presence in the return game gives Clemson a huge advantage on special teams and it may be what makes the difference here today.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in four straight December games and four of five at neutral sites. Clemson is on ATS runs of 10-5 overall, 8-2 in the ACC and 4-1 after a SU loss.
Take Clemson as they win the ACC crown.
3♦ CLEMSON
Drew Gordon
South Florida at CONNECTICUT -7'
16-7-1 roll L24 Free Plays! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the South Florida/Connecticut match up.
The Bulls are in trouble here, plain and simple. They've faded down the stretch, like usual, and now face a Huskies team firing on all cylinders, AND playing at home. Line may seem a bit steep, but rest-assured, the Huskies will win and cover this contest, and here's why:
First and foremost, despite similar recod, the talent level on these two teams is definately not the same. Need proof? Let's take a look at some common opponents - UCONN lost at Pitt by a field goal, and at Cincinnati by 2 points, covering both game with ease. South Florida on the other hand, lost at Pitt by 27 and versus Cincy by 17 points, failing to cover in either match up... So don't tell me the talent on these teams is similar, because it's NOT.
Second, not only is South Florida known for late-season fades, but it's also been a pretty shaky road team down the stretch. They got thumped at Pitt and destroyed 31-0 at Rutgers in their L/2 roadies... So laying a little more than a TD here is reasonsable, considering their atrocious track record in hostile territory of late. Note: Their achilles heel on the road has been their offense, which averages just 20 ppg away.
That brings me to third and final point, the inconsistent (and sometimes awful)play of BJ Daniels. This South Florida offense is struggling big-time right now, and the finger has to point directly at their young signal caller. Bulls are averaging just 14 ppg over their L3 games, while Connecticut is up around 44 ppg - a HUGE disparity! If Miami-Florida struggling pass defense was able to stop him, you know damn sure coach Edsall will follow the same blueprint with his rock-solid stop unit. In the end, both teams want to improve their bowl standing, but only one team really deserves it and they'll prove it tonight, as UCONN rolls!
Take Connecticut over South Florida in this college football match up.
2♦ CONNECTICUT
Chris Jordan
William & Mary +2' at SO. ILLINOIS
Homefield advantage can be huge in the Division I-AA Playoffs; but defense tells a whole other story. Both teams come into this one off devastating blowouts in the first round, but believe me when I tell you Southern Illinois hasn’t tasted the type of defense it’s going to swallow today in this quarterfinal.
I know the Salukis have a power running game that ranks fourth in the nation, but what are they going to do once they meet up with the top-ranked rushing defense. Plan on going to the pass? Meet the 17th-best pass-efficient defense in the country. Looking to run a balanced game, possibly set up the play action? Meet the No. 2 overall defense and No. 2 scoring D.
This is a disciplined Tribe team, one that isn’t going to commit six turnovers, like Eastern Illinois did against SIU last week. William & Mary is 4-2 on the road this season, and make note that one of its 10 wins came at Virginia, a 26-14 victory in the season-opener.
Move this game to a neutral field, the Tribe is favored. Move it to its home field, the number grows. Again, I know homefield advantage can be huge in the Division I-AA Playoffs, but there’s something to be said about a staunch defense like this one. Let’s take the points here.
4♦ WILLIAM & MARY
King Creole
RAPTORS /BULLS OVER 206
Both teams played LAST night. Toronto is off a, overtime road UNDERDOG win (109-107) against the Washington Wizards. Chicago lost by double digits to Cleveland on the division road.
8-1 O/U last 12 months: All NBA road dogs of 5 > points playing off an OVERTIME win (Toronto).
7-1 O/U last 3 weeks: All Non-Division CONFERENCE home favs of 7 points have gone 14-2 O/U.... and a PERFECT 13-0 O/U in the last 4 weeks!
9-1 O/U last 3 years: All NBA home favs of 8 < points with NO REST off a DD SU loss (Bulls)... vs any opponent ALSO with NO REST off a SU underdog win (Raptors).
30-11 O/U this year so far: All NAB Underdogs in their third STRAIGHT road game (Raptors).... 12-3 O/U vs a same-conference opponent.. and 5-1 O/U if that opponent is off a SU loss.