SPORTS WAGERS
Michigan State +5½ over Ohio State
This game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes come in winners of 24 straight games. However, the Buckeyes continue to schedule games against weak opponents and that’s the only reason for their misleading winning streak. The Buckeyes two toughest opponents this season was against Wisconsin and against a faltering Northwestern outfit. They won both those games but OSU allowed 54 points with 30 of those being scored by Northwestern (Northwestern scored six on the Spartans). Against weak competition the Buckeyes passing game ranked 83rd in the country. The two teams have played six common opponents and the Spartans are actually outgaining those foes by 176 yards per game while the Buckeyes are plus-130 yards per game. Now the Buckeyes are a 5½-point choice against a beast of a defense that is unlike anything they’ve faced this season. Furthermore, OSU is 0-3 ATS in its last three games and they were a 17-point favorite versus the Wolverines last week. The Buckeyes needed a botched two-point conversion to win that game while the Spartans took that same Michigan team to the woodshed for a 29-6 waxing as 4-point favorites in Week 10.
Some will suggest that the Buckeyes were looking ahead to this game when they nearly got beat by Michigan but we’re not buying into that argument for a second because a loss that close to the finish line would have certainly knocked them out of the BCS Championship game. We’ve seen a lot of bad teams move the chains with great regularity on these Buckeyes over the course of the year but the Buckeyes ended up running over them with their power running game. That doesn’t figure to happen here against MSU’s top ranked run stopping unit. It’s hard to judge a team that has a perfect record against a weak schedule. That’s the challenge here but from what we’ve seen we’re not even close to being convinced that the Buckeyes are the better team. One thing we know for sure is that Michigan State’s defense is vastly superior to the Buckeyes and that alone makes this dog very worthy of a wager in a game they can and probably will win outright.
Oklahoma +10 over OKLAHOMA ST.
Make no mistake; the Cowboys of Oklahoma State are an outstanding football team that just destroyed three ranked teams in Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor by a combined score of 139-64 with the former two being on the road. The Cowboys have been outstanding on both sides of the ball with the defense allowing an average of just 18 points a game in a conference that is loaded with explosive offenses. Since OSU turned to Clint Chelf as the full-time starter at quarterback in late October, the team is averaging 47.8 points per game. Thing is, Chelf's passing stats don't exactly jump off the page. Chelf has completed less than 57% of his attempts but his ability to run has kept the opposing defense on their heels. The Cowboys don’t rely on their passing game as much as they do on their power running game and their stats don’t support their dominance. In other words, the Cowboys have had every good bounce go their way this season. In fact, the Cowboys' yardage margin of plus-40 yards per game in conference play would be one of the lowest totals for a conference champion in the history of the Big Eight/Big 12.
In the annual Battle of Bedlam this is the most points that Oklahoma has ever received. These are significant points to be spotting to an elite force in the game and it’s not like the Sooners are laboring. Oklahoma averages 31.7 points per game and over the last two games that number has shot all the way up to 44½. The Sooners have an absolutely potent running attack that has the ability to dominate games and that certainly comes into play here. Remember, this is a bad-weather game between two rushing teams and although the Cowboys may be slightly better than the Sooners, their margin of superiority is not close to matching the 10-points being offered. We can assure you every player and coach in the Sooners locker room is fully aware of the point-spread. This time around it shows disrespect and it’s insulting. A big response is forthcoming in a game that is very likely going to come down to the wire.
RICE +203 over Marshall
Take the 6½-points being offered if you like because it’s too many points to be spotting to the Owls at home. We’re choosing to play Rice straight up because its chances of winning are just as good as the Thundering Herd and maybe more so. Both these squads ending up with identical 9-3 records but Marshall’s recent run of five straight wins, all of the blowout variety has them grossly overpriced here. Combine that with the Owls coming off two very close calls, a three-point win over UAB in OT and a four-point win over Tulane and one could understand why the Thundering Herd are a 6½-point choice. Too much weight is often given to recent results and that applies here. The Owls are loaded with 23 seniors and 19 fifth year players. They will not be overwhelmed in the least in this setting or with the high stakes. They possess an outstanding defense, a balanced offense and very capable QB in Taylor McHargue that has thrown for more than 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Marshall QB Rakeem Cato is getting all the attention in this C-USA Championship game. Cato has thrown for over 3300 yards and 34 TD’s. He’s dangerous to be sure but he can also be a liability. When things get tough, Cato is prone to huge mistakes. He is often throwing ill-advised passes that have the potential to be picked off. The kid is very good when things are going well but if the Owls get to the front, you will see a different QB than the one that is being advertised as great. The Herd played six road games this season and went just 3-3 in those games, losing to Ohio, Virginia Tech and Middle Tennessee. Marshall’s other three road games were against Florida Atlanta, a .500 team it beat by one point, followed by Tulsa and FIU, who went a combined 4-20. Of all the games this Championship week, Marshall is the one we see as the most overpriced and most overrated. Again, the 6½-points are very tempting but taking back better than 2-1 on the better side at home is much more appealing.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS -½ -102 over New Jersey
Regulation only. This is as good as it gets. The Rangers have been one of the NHL’s best teams since they returned home from a grueling early season schedule while MSG was being renovated. The Rangers are just 5-5 over their past 10 games, which is perfect for us because it keeps them underpriced. In those five losses, New York outshot L.A, Boston, Tampa and Winnipeg by wide margins. Their loss against Winnipeg came after defeating the Canucks and their ex-coach. The Rangers have dominated time in the offensive end for well over a month and they come into this one healthier, in better form and much more rested. The Rangers have been unlucky but make no mistake, that this is an elite team with elite talent throughout the lineup.
We only need one reason to fade the Devils here (Brodeur confirmed in net) but there are plenty more. First, Brodeur has lost three straight while allowing nine goals on 52 shots against. Brodeur is positioned well because of over 20 years of experience but that’s his only upside. He’s slow on his skates, his reflections are a fraction of what they should be at this level and his chances of losing are far, far greater than his chances of winning. There is guaranteed to be one soft goal and likely more every time he plays and those soft goals are completely deflating. Next is the fact that the Devils can’t score enough to compensate for Brodeur’s shortcomings. The Devils goals per game average ranks second last in the NHL with only the Sabres below them. Lastly, this will be New Jersey’s third game in four days, fifth game in seven days and tail end of back-to-backs after they lost at home to Detroit last night. This is not a young team and they figure to be running strictly on fumes here after a grueling week. If you make one NHL wager today, this should be it.
Nashville +140 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Having the better team in any sport guarantees nothing, as there is no crystal ball in the world that can predict certain things. Case in point was our Dallas Stars wager over the Maple Leafs on Thursday night. That game looked like a 60-minute power-play for Dallas, yet we lost our bet. Sometimes goaltenders stand on their heads and they beat you and if that happens, so be it. The point is luck plays a part in a large percentage of outcomes and that’s why we insist on finding value and let the luck or chips fall where they may. The Nashville Predators offer up all the value in this one but because they are coming off a four-game home stand with zero victories, they are undervalued here. The reason for their losing streak was a direct result of shaky goaltending but Marek Mazanec has been pretty solid on the road. When we look at the Predators, a team that is structured, disciplined and almost always difficult to beat, we see a team that has allowed just 23, 24, 18 and 28 shots on net in four of their past five games. Nashville has also won three straight on the road.
Meanwhile, outside of Alex Ovechkin, the Capitals have a lot of nothing on their team. Washington’s last two wins came against Montreal and the Islanders and they were badly outshot in both those games. Those were the only two victories over the Caps last eight games. Over the past month, the Capitals are allowing an average of almost 40 shots on net per game, which is the most in the NHL over that span. The Capitals defense is filled with mistake-prone blue-liners that are inept at moving the puck out of their own zone or covering the opposition’s attack when they are in the zone. The Caps will win games this season, as every team will but as a -150 favorite against a team from the West that is better than they are, Washington is an instant fade. Big overlay.
Winnipeg +127 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. Since the loss of Steven Stamkos the Lightning has held it together with a 5-5-1 record and they deserve credit for that. However, almost every win is the result of the great goaltending by Ben Bishop. Truth is, the Bolts get outplayed every time they take the ice because they resemble a minor league team. Tampa Bay lost two more players — defensemen Victor Hedman and Keith Aulie — during Thursday’s victory against Ottawa to bring the total of players out with injuries to nine. The injuries mean Tampa Bay now has nine players in the lineup who ended last season with Syracuse in the American Hockey League and four who started this season in the minors. The loss of Hedman is especially crippling because he’s the clubs best D-man. As the chalk with a depleted team, the Bolts are fade material and you can double that sentiment when a team from the West is in.
Winnipeg is 3-2 on their current six-game trip that ends here. They are going to return home with either a 3-3 record or a 4-2 record but the former would be hugely disappointing after starting the trip by going 3-1. On this trip, the Jets defeated three teams from the East, including the Rangers and lost to a red-hot Flyers team, 2-1. Against 10 teams from the East this season the Jets are 7-3 with one of those defeats occurring in OT. The Jets are a hard-working group with some of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league. The Jets have also scored three goals or more in nine of their past 13 games while allowing two or less in eight games over that same span. This is an undervalued team with huge motivation to end this trip on a positive note. No question the Jets have the ability to do just that and no question that they are underpriced here.
Brett Atkins
My free play for tonight is in the Big 10 Championship, as I like the Over in the Ohio State/Michigan State game.
With a huge obstacle toward winning a national title out of the way, Ohio State can now focus on the Big 10 Championship and hope it ends up in the BCS Championship with Alabama watching from the sidelines.
And in my eyes, the only way the second-ranked Buckeyes can increase their odds at gettin into the BCS Championship Game is by blasting Michigan State in today's game, using Urban Meyer's high-octane ways.
Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games and everybody knows Meyer is the type of coach who likes to run up scores, and use high-powered offensive schemes to win games. At 12-0, the Buckeyes have gone over in eight of their 12 games. The Buckeyes haven't scored less than 42 points in their last five games.
Last year, Ohio State eked out a 17-16 win over the Spartans, and this year Meyer has to know Michigan State is hoping to knock the Buckeyes from their pedestal. Thus, this has to be a high-scoring game for Ohio State to have a chance. The Spartans shouldn't have a problem in going with a fast-paced game, as they've been able to put up some points this year as well.
This one will be more of a shootout than most expect. Play it high.
1♦ Ohio State/Michigan State Over
Brad Wilton
Very tough spot for Fresno State, as the Bulldogs were harboring hopes of playing in a BCS bowl game, but last week's loss at San Jose State in a game in which they allowed 62 points dashed any and all hopes of that happening, and while they are playing this Mountain West Championship at Bulldog Stadium, I can easily see Fresno State falling for a second weekend in a row.
Utah State comes into this one with 5 straight wins on their side, and a 4-1 spread mark to go along with those 5 wins. The Aggies also come into this game having gone 15-4 against the spread as the road underdog dating back to 2009, and that includes a cover this season in Los Angeles against the USC Trojans.
The Aggies earned their ticket to this game when Boise State lost back on November 23rd in overtime to San Diego State, so you just know Matt Wells' team feels like they are living the charmed life when they take to the gridiron this Saturday night.
I for one, feel as though Utah State may not need any of the points they are getting, so I will side with the Aggies to cover against the deflated Bulldogs who were hoping for a different destination this January.
2♦ UTAH STATE
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Dallas Mavericks to cover the number against the Portland Trail Blazers out west.
Based on the way the Blazers have been playing this year, especially at home, and the pathetic season Dallas had last year combined with their road record, wouldn't you think this line should be higher? Every publication I've read has the Blazers in a rout. The public, the handicappers, the "experts"... they all see Portland rolling the Mavs in this spot.
And while I see where they're coming from and absolutely can't blame them for thinking this way, two things really lead me to believe the Mavs won't only cover this number, but possibly win the game outright.
For starters, the TrailBlazers are in a tough stretch of games right now, and I don't care if they're playing at home or on the road. After earning a tough road win at the Lakers, they proceeded to come back home and knock off the best team in the east (Indiana) and one of the best teams in the west (OKC) in back-to-back games. They followed that up with a 130-98 rout of the worthless Utah Jazz.
They can't continue to play this well every game and I'm expecting a small letdown at some point. Today might just be that day.
Secondly, Dallas has played Portland about as well as anyone in the league, beating the Blazers two straight and four of their last five meetings... including three out of their last four in Oregon. They've also covered four straight and seven of the last 10 meetings.
I'm not necessarily saying the Mavs will win this game, but I'm giving them a great chance to keep this close and cover the number.
4♦ DALLAS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Connecticut Huskies at home in their season finale against the Memphis Tigers.
Neither team will be making the "bowl circuit" this holiday season, but the Huskies definitely enter this game with a little more positive momentum on their side, as UConn has won their last pair of games straight up and they have covered in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
On the flip side, the Tigers have won just once in their last 7 games, and have gone only 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games.
The Connecticut defense has tightened things up during their 2 game win streak, and freshman quarterback Casey Cochran has given Huskies fans something to get excited about moving forward.
In a near pick'em spot, prefer siding with the Huskies to finish the year out on a high-note.
4♦ CONNECTICUT
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on the Memphis Tigers to get it done over the Connecticut Huskies.
Memphis is coming into this one a tad-bit pissed off, and would love to do to UConn what Temple did to the Tigers last week.
Temple spoiled Senior Day for Memphis last week, handing the Tigers a 41-21 loss, and I personally think Memphis wants nothing more than to close out a disappointing season out on a winning note.
I know UConn has won its last two games after starting the year 0-9, including a 28-21 road win at Temple two weeks ago, but Saturday’s game marks the final contest for 15 Memphis seniors who will be out to avenge the loss in their final home game.
Memphis can close out the season with a victory for a second straight year after it defeated rival Southern Miss 42-24 last year at home in the season finale. A victory also allows the Tigers to equal their win total from the 2012 season.
Just like the Tigers froze up last week in their home finale, I'll bank on the Huskies doing the same in this one.
4♦ MEMPHIS
Sean Michaels
12-6-1 roll with comp plays, including Missouri over Texas A&M last Saturday, and in today's SEC Championship game in Atlanta I'll back Mizzou once more, this time against Auburn as the War Eagles lucky streak finally comes to an end after improbable wins against Alabama and Georgia the past two weekends.
Last time Mizzou visited the state of Georgia they upset the Bulldogs in Athens and lost quarterback James Franklin to a shoulder injury in the process. But Franklin is back and coming off a strong performance against A&M last weekend (18-for-28, 233 yards passing; another 80 yards running). He's head and shoulders above his Auburn counterpart Nick Marshall, who is still more a runner than passer. Franklin should have success against an Auburn secondary ranked No. 13 in the SEC defending the pass.
Obviously Auburn runs the ball like no one else in the SEC, but today it will find the going a bit tougher against a Missouri defense yielding a 108 yards a game, making it the second toughest team to run against in the conference.
Missouri is the more rounded club in this near pick-em affair. With Franklin and running back Henry Josey keying the offense, they can move the ball efficiently through the air or on the ground. Defensively, they excel at rushing the pass (tied for 4th in the country with 37 sacks) and tough versus the run.
It will be a tight one, but Mizzou takes it by four points.
2♦ MISSOURI
Triple Threat Sports
Duke / Florida State Over
Florida State has been "held" under 38 points just one time all season, and that was last week against one of the best defenses in the nation in Florida, and FSU could have made it into the 40's if not for Jimbo Fisher's act of sportsmanship in the final stages of the game. Duke is a great story, but this is not a great defensive team, and they certainly figure to struggle against the Winston led Noles. However, we do think Boone and the Blue Devils can do some damage offensively, as Boston College (34 points) had the most success against the FSU defense this season, and Duke shares some traits with the Eagles. Overall we call for a 49-21 win for Florida State, and that get this one Over the total.
Nelly
Philadelphia 76ers + over Denver Nuggets
After a seven-game winning streak the Nuggets have lost back-to-back games as a road favorite and a similar result could be expected Saturday in a brutal scheduling spot. This is a fourth road game in five days for the Nuggets and the seventh road game in the last eight games for an incredibly taxing run that is obviously taking a toll. Denver has scored just 186 points combing in the last two games despite averaging 104 points per game on the season. After a hot start Philadelphia has faded to the back of the pack in the Eastern Conference but the 76ers have been mostly a competitive team and they will embrace the up-tempo style that the Nuggets like to play. Brett Brown has done a great job of maximizing results with likely the least talent in the league and while the 76ers have failed in five in a row ATS the 76ers are getting a healthy home underdog spread tonight. Denver has played top teams tough but the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS against below .500 teams this season and Philadelphia has four S/U home underdog wins this season. Denver is obviously the superior team but the value and the situation tilt heavily to the home underdog Saturday and the defensive efficiency numbers are actually pretty similar for these teams with the offensive edge not as severe as you might expect, especially in this scheduling situation where teams usually see a drop-off offensively.
Dr. Bob
OKLAHOMA STATE (-10) 32 Oklahoma 21
My math model only favors Oklahoma State by 7 1/2 points but the situation strongly favors the Cowboys, who apply to a 140-51-2 ATS situation while Oklahoma applies to a negative 24-81-4 ATS letdown situation. Tough call on the side but the math projects a slightly lower scoring game than expected.
BAYLOR (-16) 40 Texas 23
Baylor's offense has gone from historically great to simply very, very good since top WR Tevin Reese was injured in week 10. Baylor went from having two unstoppable deep threats in Reese and Antwan Goodley, who could not both be double-covered, to now allowing opposing defenses to focus their attention on Goodley with constant double teams. Baylor has other good receivers, but they certainly aren't as explosive without Reese's incredible 15.8 yards per pass thrown to him (824 yards on 52 targets) and Goodley's 17.7 yards per target through week 10 is just 8.4 yards per target the last 4 games. Baylor still has a great offense, as they've still been 1.0 yards per play better than average over their last 4 games (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team) and my math model favors Baylor by 16 1/2 points using their offensive numbers without Reese. The line has been adjusted but the total has not and I like the Under (71.5).
Auburn (+1) 31 Missouri 30
I was a bit surprised that the math favored Auburn in this game, as the math has been on Missouri most of the year. Missouri does have an advantage from the line of scrimmage, as their defensive advantage (0.7 yppl better than average to Auburn's 0.1 yppl better than average defense) is a bit more than Auburn's offensive advantage of +1.3 yppl to +0.9 yppl). Missouri is actually +1.1 yppl on offense for the season (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but James Franklin's compensated yards per pass play numbers (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) are 0.5 yppp worse than the team average since Maty Mauk averaged 7.5 yppp on his 134 pass play against much tougher competition. Franklin returned two weeks ago and the Tigers' scoring has been down.
Missouri's slim advantage from the line of scrimmage is offset by Auburn's edge in special teams and overall my math model favors the Auburn Tigers by 1.3 points. The line has gone from Auburn by 2 to Missouri being a small favorite and now the value is with the charmed War Eagles.
John Ryan
Duke at Florida St
Play: Florida St
The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 31 or more points. There are few items preventing this from being graded as a Top Rated 10* Titan where I have gone 42-20 ATS for 68% winners. The one is that when FSU gets out to a second-half 28+ lead, the starters will come out of the game, especially Winston, and many members of the defense allowing for a Duke cover down the stretch.Now, 8 weeks ago, I stated that FSU was my pick to win the BCS Championship game. That appeared to be a bit of a reach back then, but now everyone has taken notice of this very special team. The team has incredible chemistry and the team positively is led by the defense. I had FSU as a 10* 'UNDER' play last week in the Swamp and stated that a possible shutout was possible and it nearly happened. FSU ranks second in both offensive and scoring defense. This compares very favorably to a Duke team that ranks 39th in scoring offense and just 42nd in scoring defense. Making matters worse is that the Duke secondary will be targeted early and often. They rank a dismal 72nd in the nation allowing 7.3 yards-per-pass. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 77% winners since 2002. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (FLORIDA ST) after scoring 37 points or more in 4 straight games. Take the Seminoles.
River City Sharps
Ohio -2.5
This is another one where the line doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense as 6-1 Ohio travels to Oakland to take on the 1-7 Grizzlies. Even though Oakland has a lot more experience returning, it hasn't panned out early in the season as off court problems and bad play have led to an uncharacteristic start for Greg Kampe and his squad. Ohio is a younger team with quality additions, and their record is highlighted by nice wins over Valpo and Mercer, as well as a very competitive effort vs. Ohio State. Ohio has played a better, tougher early season schedule than Oakland. The Grizzlies are only averaging 69.9 ppg, which is tough when you are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor and score almost 78 ppg. Ohio is much stingier on the defensive side, allowing opponents to shoot just 38% and giving up just over 65 ppg. The Bobcats are simply the better team here and will take care of business tonight. Ohio is 20-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Michigan State Over 51.5: Traditionally this has been a low scoring series, but that won't be the case in this one. The Ohio State offense has been in full gear all year long as they come in averaging 531.3 ypg and 48.2 ppg, and they have scored 42+ points in each of their last 5 games. Now granted they will be facing the best defense they have faced all year, but Michigan State did allow 28 points to a good Nebraska offense and 28 points to a very good Indiana offense. I fully expect the Buckeyes to put up their fair share of points in this one, and especially with a BCS title trip on the line you can bet that Meyer will go all out on offense here. He also has to think that they have to outscore the Spartans, as his defense is pretty weak. The Buckeye defense has struggled for parts of this year, but mostly away from home, where they have allowed 28 ppg. A closer looser shows even worse as they shutout Purdue's 121st ranked scoring offense, but allowed 35 ppg in their other 4 rad games vs Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern & Cal. The Michigan State isn't nearly as bad as Purdue's as they come in averaging 29.4 ppg and Connor Cook has improved as the season has gone on. Michigan State did hit that 29 point mark in 4 of their last 5 games as they have begun to open up the offense, which is something they will have to do here, if they want the Big 10 Title, Because Ohio State will score points. 11 of Ohio State's games this year have put up 55 or more points and the one that didn't put up 49. This one has 60+ points written all over it.
3 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma/ Oklahoma State Under 57: Big games sometimes can breed Unders and this is a huge game, especially from the side of the Cowboys, as a win here for them will not only give them the Big 12 title, but will also put then in a BCS bowl. The Key to the success of the Cowboys down the stretch has been the change to more of a running offense. All that running will eat plenty of clock. The Cowboys will run allot here as the Sooners are 14th in the nation vs the pass. Overall the Sooner defense has been strong this year, ranking 13th overall and 21st in points allowed, giving up just 21.1 ppg. The Oklahoma State Cowboys have not been all about offense this year as they come in allowing just 18.8 ppg overall and 11.3 ppg at home. They are 95th vs the pass, but that's okay because the Sooners are 102nd in the nation in passing. Like the Cowboys, the Sooners are a run based offense that is 15th in the nation and they will be going against a Cowboy defense that is 21st in the nation vs the run allowing just 130 ypg on the ground. This game will be about allot of running and defense. OSU could play more of a conservative game especially it they are up by 10 or more. I just don't expect more than 48 in this one.
Utah State +3 over FRESNO STATE: Gotta feel that the Bulldogs are a bit deflated here after their dreams of a BCS bowl invite were shattered last week by a very game San Jose State squad. Granted this game is in Fresno, but we also note that the Aggies are 14-3 ATS in their last 16 on the road vs winning opposition, plus let's also note that they Bulldogs are 1-15-1 ATS of a loss as a favorite, including 0-10 ATS at home. The Bulldogs have been able to score points in bunches this year, and hey have had to as their defense has been porous, ranking 101st overall and 118th vs the pass, while allowing 30.2 ppg (85th). Defense is where the Aggies have a huge edge as they are 11th in total defense, 23rd vs the pass, 11th vs the run and 7th in points allowed, giving up just 16.8 ppg on the year. Offensively the Aggies are not as explosive as the Bulldogs, but they still have scored 33.9 ppg and QB Darrell Garretson has now had 6 games of experience under his belt, so he should have a good game vs this bad defense. In a game that will be all about offense, it will come down to who can make that crucial stop or two and that has to go to the Aggies. This team plays well away from home and they will do so here once again vs a deflated Fresno team.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Baylor Over 70.5: Tough one to call here on the side, because if Oklahoma State wins their game earlier in the day then what will Baylor have to play for? That has me looking at the total, because one thing I do know is that there will be plenty of points scored in this one. Despite how well the Bears defense has played this year they come in allowing 486 ypg and 40.3 ppg in their last 3 games. This defense may be wearing down and today they will be taking on a Texas offense that is pretty explosive, having scored 30+ points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Baylor offense has been explosive all year and they have scored 65.3 ppg at home this year, while Texas has allowed 449.3 ypg and 29.3 ppg on the road. Whether Baylor needs this win or not this one will be a shootout.
Missouri -1 over Auburn: Auburn is a team of destiny? I think not. Yes they have had some luck in the last 2 weeks, but i feel it runs out here. Auburn's strength is it's run game and they had a big game vs Alabama's run defense, but now they take on another team, whose strength on defense is their run defense as Missouri has allowed just 119.1 ypg on the year, which is 14th in the nation. Overall Missouri has the edge on defense, ranking 53rd in total defense and 13th in points allowed (19.4), while Auburn is 76th in total defense and 31st in points allowed (22.4 ppg). Missouri can easily match points with Auburn here, so it will come down to who gets that extra stop or two on defense and that will be Missouri, as Auburn's luck finally runs out.
1 UNIT PLAYS
UL Lafayette/ South Alabama Under 58.5: ULL could be without QB Broadway for this one and that will hurt their offense, especially vs a USA defense that has allowed just 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. The Jaguars have averaged just 19.6 ppg at home this year and their home games overall have averaged just 48 ppg on the year. That's just about where this one should fall.
Rice/ Marshall Over 61: The Marshall offense has been unstoppable the last 6 weeks, putting up 53 ppg over that stretch, while not scoring less than 45 points in any of those games. That means we need just 17 from Rice and that should be attainable as the Owls come in averaging 30.6 ppg on the year. The Owls have allowed just 22.8 ppg on the year, but this is by far the best offense they have faced this year. They did face Houston early in the year when that offense was clicking and allowed 31 points to the Cougars in that one. I can see this one as a 35-28 type game.
Wunderdog
UCLA at Missouri
Pick:Missouri -1.5
Missouri has been perfect, and are covering numbers, as they are on a 3-0 ATS run. They shoot over 50% as a team and average 80.5 points per game. The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. PAC-12. This is a long road trip for UCLA -a team that hasn't been tested yet. These teams met last year in Los Angeles and the Bruins needed OT to win, a game Missouri won the battle of the boards at +10. The Bruins are also 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when following three or more consecutive home games. Missouri owns a 23-game home court winning streak at Mizzou Arena - the longest home winning streak in the country. The Tigers get revenge at home, so take Mizzou.