Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Villanova/ Penn Under 135: (Added) This game features a couple of struggling offenses and that should surely keep the scoring low. Villanova start the year scoring 82.3 ppg in their first 3 games, but one game was vs a Division 2 team and 1 was an OT game. Since they have played 5 games, with one going to OT and they have scored just 60.4 ppg (Regulation Only) in those 5 games. Fro the year the Cats do average 69.5 ppg, but are not a very good shooting team, hitting just 41.9% of their shots overall (235th) and just 32.6% from long range (206th). On the other side we have a Penn team that is scoring just 63.4 ppg (256th) on 41.1% shooting overall (259th) and 30.3% from long range (267th) this is not a good scoring or shooting team either. These teams do not look to push tempo as Villanova is 300th in the nation in shots per game (50.9), while Penn is 234th (53.9). Should be a slow paced game and while the defenses are a bit suspect, I just don't feel that these poor shooting offenses will be able to take advantage.
4 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin -2 over MARQUETTE: Wisconsin has been playing very solid ball this year and they come in 6-3 and on a 2 game win streak that included a 25 point blowout of Cal. Marquette comes in with a 5-2 record, but have really fattened up on a weak schedule. The best team they have faced thus far has been Florida and they were blown out in that game by 33 points. The Golden Eagles lost allot of offense from last years squad and will struggle to score vs good defensive teams, like they did vs Florida. Wisconsin is always one of the better defensive squad and this year they have allowed just 57.1 ppg on 39.9% shooting and I feel it will be that defensive pressure that will keep Marquette from taking this one. Wisconsin by at least 7.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arkansas +16 over MICHIGAN: Two games really standout for me when looking at Arkansas this and that vs Syracuse and Wisconsin. Now Yes Arkansas did lose both games, but they scored 70 off Wisconsin and 82 off the Cuse. Those are two very tough defensive teams and It has me feeling really good that they can put up enough points on this tough Michigan defense to keep this game close. Michigan is a very tough defensive team, but really have played just one good scoring team (NC State) and in that game they allowed 72 points. The Wolverines did have blow out wins vs Western Michigan, INDPU and Cleveland State, but also won by just 8 vs Bradley and in their 3 games vs teams from the Power 6 Conferences they won by 7, 14 and 5. Arkansas offense scores 82.1 ppg and should have more than enough offense to keep this one close. Yes
UCLA -5.5 over TEXAS: Texas is a young team and while they have played solid defense this year they just don’t have the scoring just yet. The Longhorns have averaged just 61.9 ppg (282nd) on 41.5% shooting (244th) and their struggles dont end with those two stats as they are also 237th in 3pt shooting (31.3%) and 322nd in FT shooting (62%). This team just can’t stick the ball in the hole with much consistency at all and that will make it hard for them to keep pace with this UCLA offense that averages 76.9 ppg (44th) on 46% shooting (76th). UCLA hasn’t been that great overall this year, but they seem to be figuring things out and they lost by just 8 to Georgetown, while Texas lost by 23 to the Hoyas, plus we also note that the Longhorns have lost to USC in OT and by 13 at Chaminade (Div 2). UCLA Is the better team here and will win this one rather easily.
Minnesota -8.5 over USC: (Added) The Trojans are not really a good team this year as they come in at 3-5 overall and have lost 4 in a row. The Gophers have had no such problems as they stand 9-1 on the young season and that has included a 9 point win at a good Florida State squad. The Gophers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, while USC is just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Minnesota is playing much better at both ends of the floor right now and will pick up a big road win in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
St Bonaventure -2 over ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves don't have enough offense to keep pace with the Bonnies in this one, plus St Bonaventure has a slight edge on defense as well. Look for them to pull away late. The Bonnies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs the Sun Belt.
WESTERN KENTUCKY- 11.5 Over Indiana-Purdue: INDPU is 0-4 on the road this year and they have been outscored by 25.7 ppg in those games. WKU is 4-0 at home, outscoring those fore by 10.7 ppg. The Hiltoppers have a solid edge on offense, but a huge edge on defense and should win this one rather easily. WKU is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, while INDPU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 overall.
SAN JOSE STATE -4.5 over Sacramento State: (Added) The Hornets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non conference games, while the Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs the Big Sky.
HAWAII -6,5 over Pepperdine: (Added) Tough trip here for Pepperdine as they take on a Hawaii team that plays well at home and is seeing revenge for a 73-67 loss last year. Leading scorer for the Waves (Lorne Jackson) is struggling to shoot the rock and the Rainbows have a solid edge on the boards. Easy win for Hawaii here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas/ Colorado Over 140: Colorado plays at a high a high tempo and that allows them to put up points, but they also give up plenty, having allowed 73 ppg in their last 5. Kansas plays good defense play, but did allow 78 to Oregon State last time out and I feel that Colorado can notch at least 70 here. Last 4 in series has put up 152 or more and i see about 150 here as well. Yes
Illinois +12 over GONZAGA: (Added) I like the Illini is this one as I just feel that DD is too much for the Zags to be favored here. Illinois is off to a fine start to the year at 9-0 and ranked 14th in the country. That's only 4 spots behind the Zags, who are ranked 10th. The Zags have pounded teams at home (32 ppg), but they other than a weak West Virginia squad they haven't played anyone good at home. The Zags are off a last second win vs Washington State and I see this Illinois squad as head and shoulders above that team. Not sure if Illinois can win outright, but they sure have enough offense and defenses to keep this one close. Should be a great game that goes down to the wire.