Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. CalgaryFOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Calgary +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Penguins favored quite heavily on the money-line, we’re able to get the Flames at a (relatively) reasonable price on the puck-line. I feel that the extra +1.5 goals could easily come in handy.
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The Pens are off a 4-3 loss at Edmonton last night. That marked their third game in a row which was decided by a single goal.
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While Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU since these teams last met, it would only be 2-7 in those games, if laying an extra 1.5 goals in each.
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Admittedly, the Flames have been struggling. They had last night off though and they should be very determined here. They played the Pens tough at Pittsburgh and I look for them to do so again here. Consider Calgary at +1.5 goals.
Carlos Salazar
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Play: Indianapolis Colts +7.5
Carlos loves the Colts in this spot having a good chance to not only cover the 7.5 points but win the game outright. New England has Tom Brady and a great head coach but the losses on defense will be to much to over come on Saturday night. Look for Indy to keep this one close all the way to the end.
Dave Essler
West Virginia +5.5
Oklahoma State hasn't won a true road game yet, aside from beating a bad South Florida team. They're super-young and super-small to be playing in such a tough atmosphere. West Virginia is very different team at home, and all five of their losses have been to very good teams. Oklahoma State beat them badly twice last season, and Coach Huggins remembers. West Virginia can and will play the pace, and can play some defense. On the road, I don't see the Cowboys getting the calls they get at home, which should negate some of their free throw attempts. When the 'Neers get hot, they'll score in bunches from anywhere, and we love those types of teams at home, catching points.
DAAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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FLORIDA VS ARKANSASFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: ARKANSAS -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I have no real idea why certain teams have spectacularly split personalities. These are the teams that are absolute terrors on their home court, but turn into total mush on the road. There are lots of theories, but that’s all they are. If anyone really knew, there would be a way to fix the flaw.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Arkansas is without a doubt one of the truly glaring examples of a team with this mysterious trait. The Razorbacks can pretty much play with anyone when they’re in the role of host. Put the Hogs on a floor that’s not their own, however, and they’re about as pathetic as a team can be.
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Arkansas is off and running in that fashion again this season. They’re beating up the opposition in their building and getting trampled when they head anyplace else. The game earlier this week at Texas A&M was business as usual for the Razorbacks. They hung in for the first half against the Aggies and then were summarily dismissed in an ugly second half.
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The Hogs are back home today, and I’m expecting them to naturally bounce back like they usually do off a road loss. It doesn’t really seem to make a difference as to the level of opponent they match up against in these situations. They just go ahead and get the job done.
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It’s therefore a tough assignment under any circumstances for Florida today. But it gets even worse as the Gators will have to play this game without Casey Prather, who has been their best player. Prather has knee issue and the info as of now is that he’s out. The Florida health problems don’t end there. Scottie Wilbekin has a dinged up ankle. Patric Young will play, but his knee is not 100%.
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I’m not generally a fan of fading teams with injuries. It gets incorporated into the number, plus there are so many occasions where the beat up team finds a way to band together and come up with a really huge effort. But this really looks like a wrong place at the wrong time scenario for Florida today.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Put these two teams on a neutral court and I’m going to looking for a way to play the Gators. But Arkansas is about as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets, and today they’re in a setting where the good doctor generally shows up. It’s therefore an excellent bounce back opportunity for the Razorbacks, and the number is certainly not an obstacle. I’ll take Arkansas to garner the win and cover this time.
Larry NessFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola Marymount vs. Brigham YoungFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brigham YoungFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I used BYU as my free play last Saturday, with the Cougars returning home to the friendly confines of the Marriott Center after four straight road games to host San Diego, all of which resulted in losses. BYU was beaten badly at Utah on Dec 14 and then a week later (Dec 21), lost a great opportunity to hand the Ducks their first loss of the season, but fell in OT, 100-96. That loss seemed to deflate the Cougars more than just a little, as they lost at Loyola-Marymount and Pepperdine (each time as a road favorite), to open the WCC season at 0-2.
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Dave Rose is in his 9th season at Provo. The loss inside of Brandon Davies (17.7-8.0) has been a tough blow. Two big freshman had high expectations but only the 6-10 Mika has met those expectations, averaging 13.9 & 6.4. The 6-9 Worthington has been useless. That said, 6-11 junior Nate Austin has been capable, averaging 4.2 & 8.2. A huge addition to this year's team has been 6-6 swingman Kyle Collingsworth, who returned from a two-year mission. He averaged 5.8-5.1 as a freshman when he made 27 starts. He’s been excellent so far for BYU, averaging 13.1-8.4-5.6.
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BYU’s backcourt is terrific, led by Haws and Carlino. Haws averaged 29.5 & 10.5 in BYU’s 1st two wins, then missed the next two with a an abdominal strain. He hasn’t missed a game since and leads the team in scoring at 22.5 PPG (also 4.7 RPG). Carlino averaged 18.0 PPG with 8.0 APG in four NIT games last year, and has opened this season averaging 14.2-4.6-4.6. Three other guards are making contributions as well, in Halford (8.8), Bartley (6.2) and Winder (5.6).
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Last Saturday's game was "gut check time," as BYU was in desperate need of a victory and playing its first home game since December 11th. I said San Diego was in the WRONG place at the WRONG time and was right, as BYU cruised to an 87-53 win. I'll go "back to that same well" here, as payback is on BYU's mind after losing by 11 in Westchester a few weeks ago (Dec 28), 87-76. In that game, Haws and Carlino combined to shoot just 8 of 28, which WON'T happen again.
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LMU head coach Max Good will remind his players how they lost by 41 up in Provo last year but I doubt it will help (or matter). LMU owns a solid pair of guards in Ireland (19.1) and Payne (14.7) but other than the 6-7 Levin (11.4-8.1), the Lions can't match up with BYU in the frontcourt.
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Just like last Saturday, lay the points with BYU at home, where the Cougars are 7-1 SU (only loss was 90-88 to still unbeaten and 9th-ranked Iowa St), outscoring opponents on average, 92.1-to-68.9 PPG.
Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco vs. St. Mary'sFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. Mary'sFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Mary's is coming off a devastating loss against Santa Clara on Thursday as it went down in the final seconds on a Broncos three-pointer. That dropped the Gaels to 2-2 in the conference after going 2-1 in the first three WCC games, all of which were on the road. While losses like that can carry over, I expect just the opposite of St. Mary's. That was their first home loss against an unranked team in the last 26 games at home so they will be out to make up for that today. Additionally, this marks the return of head coach Randy Bennett who had to serve a five-game suspension for violation of the basketball program. San Francisco meanwhile is coming off an overtime win over Pacific on Thursday to improve to 4-1 in the conference. That also happened to be the Dons second overtime win in WCC action, both of which came on the road. They were blasted by Gonzaga in their other conference road game by 28 points. St. Mary's has won the last 10 meetings in this series and while san Francisco has been solid against the number, this is the lowest the Gaels have been favored by at home. St. Mary's is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a home loss by three points or less.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Mexico -13½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game has blowout written all over it. The Lobos are a very good team. Their three losses have come against opponents that have a combined 36-10 record this season. Even with their difficult schedule they have had no problem getting points on the board. New Mexico's opponents have surrendered an average of 68.1 points per game, but that has not stopped the Lobos from putting up an impressive 77.4 points per game this season.
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San Jose State is even worse than their 6-9 record indicates. They have played a soft schedule, and have still scored less than their opponents defensive scoring average, all while allowing more points than their opponents offensive scoring average. The Spartans have yet to face a team that is of the same caliber as the Lobos, yet six of their nine losses have come by a double-digit margin.
Tony KarpinskiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics vs. Portland TrailblazersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Portland Trailblazers -12FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston shows up with no deep ball threats, their best long ball shooter is Jeff Green and it ends there. They have built their game now on an inside presence, with Jared Sullinger, who can play well, scoring 13 and rebounding solidly. But cannot play great defense. Jeff Green has been the best player on the team, showing strides as a leader on the Celts. They don't play well on the road, which has been shown by the beatings they have taken, back in the past, Boston used to own them, it doesn't look that way now. Portland is the team right now, led with their G play of Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews, who combine for 39 a game. The play of LaMarcus Aldridge actually has the team getting noticed. Aldridge has been premier for years now, but with Portland playing the way they are, he is getting a lot more attention. They are a fast paced scoring team and a great rebounding team. Based off of their guard play. Struggles vs the 3, and they give up good 3 pt shooting, wont be an issue here. Staying excellent off the offensive glass in particular. Portland wins by 17.
Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte Bobcats +5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte will be the hungrier team following last night's ugly loss in Minnesota. It will also be motivated by a five-point loss in Chicago in the season's first meeting. The Bulls are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four. However, they are 2-11 ATS under coach Thibodeau after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. This trend illustrates the way odds makers inflate the line for teams on a covering spree. In addition, Chicago is 16-34 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 11-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. Take the points.
Doug Upstone
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Iowa State -3
Get ready for some points as the Cyclones and Sooners square off. Both are in the top 7 in scoring but I trust the ISU squad a lot more because their scorers are a lot more proven. OU has tough back to back home games with ISU following Kansas into town. They lost to the Jayhawks and I think this will be another spirited takedown. The Cyclones just have too many great options and are so well seasoned.
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets -2
I'm going to back the Rockets as a mere 2-point road favorite over the Washington Wizards tonight. They are easily the better team in this one, and I don't believe home-court advantage will be enough to save the Wizards.
Houston is 23-14 on the season. What I like most about this team is its resiliency. The Rockets have only lost back-to-back games three times all season, and they have yet to lose more than two games in a row. They are 10-3 straight up following a loss this year.
Honestly, Washington really does not have an impressive win this season. In fact, the Wizards have just one win against a team with a winning record this year, which was the Atlanta Hawks (20-17) at home. They were crushed at Indiana 66-93 last night, and you just can't trust them against good teams.
Washington is a very tired team to boot. This will be its 4th games in 5 days. Plays against home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 62-31 (66.7%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Rockets Saturday.
Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Butler -1½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bulldogs will be motivated to say the least, as they have started out 0-3 in their first go of things in the Big East. Losing is not something Butler is all that familiar with and I look for them to come out with max effort against the Hoyas at home. Georgetown comes in off a 18-point loss at Providence last time out and I'm just not sold on this team. The Hoyas have lost both of their true road games so far and are just 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS away from home overall. Butler is 6-2 at home and we know this team is better than their 0-3 conference mark. The Bulldogs have solid wins over Purdue and Vanderbilt and lost by just 2-points to a very good Oklahoma State squad.
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Butler is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games with a line of +3 to -3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games off a conference road loss by 6 or more points. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs good defensive teams who are holding opponents to 39% or worse shooting from the field and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a road winning pct less than 40%.
Jeff ClementFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis vs. Temple FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Memphis -7.5FOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis(11-3) vs. Temple(5-8). Temple's leading scorer Will Cummings is questionable with a concussion and Temple is 0-3 in conference play. Memphis is coming off a huge road win at Louisville and have won 14 straight conference road wins. Prediction: MEMP 80 TEMP 68.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Iowa State Cyclones to keep their record perfect with the win and cover in Norman against the Sooners of Oklahoma.
OU sports a solid 12-3 straight up mark, but a pair of those losses have come in the Sooners last 3 games, including an overtime home loss to Louisiana Tech.
Not sure Oklahoma is ready to step up against Fred Hoiberg's 14-0 Cyclones that have gotten the job done both at home - 5-1 against the spread at home, and they have also gotten the job done on the road - 4-2 against the spread away from Ames.
Series numbers show Iowa State having won and covered 2 of the 3 meetings between the schools last season, as the Cyclones are now 4-1 both straight up and against the spread the last 5 series meetings.
Being at home has not been a benefit for Sooners backers, as Oklahoma is just 2-5 against the spread in their home games to date.
Iowa State is not going to finish the season unbeaten, but I don't think this is the spot they falter.
Take the Cyclones to make it 15-0 straight up on Saturday.
4* IOWA STATE
Brad Wilton
St. John's looking for win #10 this year against 5 defeats, and they are back home after back-to-back road losses at Georgetown and Xavier, but the Redstorm are in just a little bit over their heads this afternoon against the 14-1 WIldcats from the Main Line in Philly.
Jay Wright has his Villanova team at 14-1, and in the Top-Ten in the nation. The Wildcats sport spread covers in 10 of their 13 games this season, including 5 of 7 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Johnnies are just 4-8 in their lined games this season.
Series numbers show Nova with 3 straight wins and covers, and straight up wins in 9 of the last 10 meetings overall, with 6 covers in the last 7 series meetings.
This Villanova team looks to have the make up for a deep March run, and laying a few in New York to the Redstorm should not bother them at all.
Take Villanova.
2* VILLANOVA
Huge emotional win for the Georgia Bulldogs their last time out, as they won in overtime at Columbia against the Mizzou Tigers one day after head coach Mark Fox buried his father.
Going to look for that emotion to carryover at the Steg as the Bulldogs take on the poor-traveling Crimson Tide looking for their first series win since February 2010. Georgia has dropped the last 5 series meetings, but the 'Dawgs do own a 14-3 spread mark their last 17 in SEC play.
As for 'Bama, they are have yet to win away from home at 0-5 straight up, and they are just 1-4 against the spread in those road games.
The time is right for UGa to end their 5 game series slide in their conference home opener today.
2* GEORGIA