John Ryan
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers
Of the four games slated for the divisional playoff round of the NFl, there was one line that caught my attention. The 49ers are favored by just 3 points and with a week off to rest and prepare, I find this a very skinny line. Green Bay appeared to be back in top form in their win over Minnesota, but the Vikings were playing with a backup QB and several key injuries. GB does rank fourth in the NFl averaging 26.9 PPG. I do feel strongly that the 49ers defense that ranks second in the NFL allowing 17.1 PPG will dominate the LOS and make it very difficult for the Packers to execute multiple play time consuming scoring drives. Moreover, the 49ers ground game is very strong ranking third best averaging 5.1 YPR. GB ranks 28th allowing 4.6 yards per rush. My simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will gain 125+ rushing yards and in past games where they have eclipsed this measure they are 5-2 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. With the week off, the 49ers defensive front will be at full strength and this is a unit that allowed just 45 rushing yards to the Packers when these two teams met in Week 1. GB has had RB Harris evolve as a pleasant surprise. He runs with determination and protects the ball well when in traffic. Still, the 49ers will force Rogers to throw far more than their game plan will call for. The 49ers have two Pro Bowlers Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman and they are the best pair of run defenders in the NFL. The 49ers will establish the run and this sets up play action pass to Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. Note that I did not mention Crabtree, who has emerged as Kaepernick’s clear cut go to receiver. Because of Crabtree’s emergence, the Packers are forced to use their best cover man, Tramon Williams on him and this will provide ample opportunity for Davis, Walker, and others to stretch the Packers secondary with vertical routes. Take the 49ers.
Rob Vinciletti
CAL SANTA BARB vs. UC DAVIS
PLAY: CAL SANTA BARB
Santa Barbara has Dominated the last 2 meetings between these two, winning by more than 25 points in both. They have won 6 of the last 8 here at Cal Davis and are a live dog here and have a big RPI Edge. Santa Barbara is ranked 162, but has played the 14th toughest schedule, compared to Cal Davis who is ranked 237th and has played the 212th toughest schedule. Santa Barbara is 11-4 off a conference loss and has won 19 of the last 27 vs losing teams. In games after allowing 80 or more points they have bounced back winning 8 of 10. Cal Davis has lost 20 of the last 26 off a win and 12 of the last 15 January games. When they have been favored they have failed to cover 11 of the 15 times. Based on the RPI and the aforementioned angles we will back the Dog in this one. Take Cal Santa Barbara tonight.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +2
The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now. That's because they have gotten off to a slow start due to injuries. However, Dirk Nowitzki has recently returned from a knee injury and he's basically back to full strength.
After four straight tough losses to the Heat (OT), Hornets (OT), Jazz (by 6) and Clippers (by 6), the Mavs finally got back on track with an overtime victory at Sacramento on Thursday. I believe this team is primed to go on a run now that they are finally healthy.
Memphis is in a huge letdown spot tonight after a 101-98 (OT) win over San Antonio Friday. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. This is a tired team that won't be able to match the energy level of Dallas, especially after such a big win over the Spurs last night.
The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Dallas is 68-46 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.
Greg Daraban
Arizona at Oregon State
Pick: Arizona
U of A finnaly got beat the other night may have been good wake up call as team has got some lucky breaks like the CU game which a late basket by Colo was reversed.Oregon St very beatable just was the doctor ordered for Wildcats.
Charlie Scott
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay is a nice Team with a good offense, that we cashed in with last weekend. However, Green Bays defense is soft & struggles to stop the run, while their back 7 don't tackle well in the open field. In addition the Packers have struggled on offense vs defense's like the Niners that put pressure on the QB. The Packers were 2-4 s/u vs 2013 Playoff Teams ! The Niners pushed the Packers around in week #1 winning 30-22 in a game that wasn't as close as the score. With the Niners having a 80 ypg Rushing edge + the better defense, Expect another Niner win. Throw in the Niners are rested and Harbaugh and company has had an extra week to prepare. Shop for -2.5 & PLAY NINERS !
Marquette vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Marquette
Pitt just isn't good enough on offense to justify laying this many points vs an NCAA Tournament caliber Big East rival. Plus Marquette has had all week off to prepare. Season after Season under Coach Buzz Williams, Marquette competes for the Big East Title, Marquette can score on offense, while playing good defense. Take Marquette + Points !
JR O'Donnell
Arkansas -10.5
Our 6pm "Rock Play" as we see things getting ugly in the SEC opener @ Bud Walton Arena for a 6 p.m. tipoff. Arkansas (9-5) is coming off a bad bad loss in its SEC home opener at Texas A&M. Arkansas plays at an unreal pace on D end and they create tunovers... They are ranked # 3 in the nation in turnover margin. The Razorbacks are 17-9 against Vanderbilt in a series that began in the early 1960s. .. (6-7) Commes played the Mighty Kentucky Wildcats last game @ 60-58 loss and now Vegas spots them 10... WAY WAY TOO easy to grab a Commes team plus 10...POWER RATED by our camp @ - 15.32 points.... Commodores are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arkansas.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -2 over Utah
Great spot for the Pistons here. Not only is Detroit one of the hottest teams in the Association with seven wins in nine games (both losses came in OT), they catch the Jazz at precisely the right time. Utah’s loss in Atlanta last night could snowball. The Jazz led that game throughout, had a 15-point lead late in the third and eventually surrendered the lead with about 90 seconds to go for good. They walked off the court demoralized and with their heads down. Utah now has to travel again to play their third road game in four days and final game of this trip. On Monday, they return home to play the Heat.
The Pistons played in Milwaukee last night and buried them by 16. That was on five days rest so they are certainly going to be the fresher club with more energy. Winning increases energy and right now the Pistons are feeling it. Detroit’s starting five is rock solid and the bench is deep, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.7 points in the last nine games. This is a cheap price to pay for the better team at home in a very favorable spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +7 over INDIANA
Talk about no respect and one need not look further than Tubby Smiths’ Golden Gophers. Here’s a team that is 15-1 and gets a fraction of the recognition Duke or Indiana gets. Two of the Gophers last three wins have come against Michigan State and Illinois and it’s not like the Golden Gophers squeaked out a win. They beat that pair of ranked teams by a combined 29 points. Minnesota’s SOS (strength of schedule) ranks 5th in the country while the Hoosiers rank 42nd. The Gophers get plenty of points to work with here in a game they can win outright.
Indiana is loaded with talent, no doubt about it. However, they have not looked that sharp over the past few games and it’s going to catch up to them. They blew a double-digit lead on Butler in mid- December and did the same last week at Iowa. Between those two games, Indiana played a lot of cupcakes but that all changes here. This is too much weight to be giving the under-hyped Gophers. Tubby Smith will probably have a big “+7” on the chalkboard to stress how disrespected they are and to further motivate his guys. Upset possibility.
N.C. STATE +125 over Duke
This is actually one of our favorite days of the year to back some live pooches, as there is no college football to parlay today’s NFL playoffs with and NBA starts much later. These early Saturday matchups will attract a ton of “parlay” money and the oddsmakers are fully aware of the extreme increase in volume today on these popular teams. This is by no means a knock on the Blue Devils. They’re 15-0 for a reason and they’re certainly a threat to win another National championship. However, there is almost always a premium to pay when wagering on the Dukies because of their immense popularity with the betting public. Throw in that this is the Blue Devils first true road game of the year and the makings of an upset is on high alert.
The Wolfpack are dangerous. They’ll be amped up and raring to go in front of a packed house. They should’ve beaten this team last season and have an even better chance to do so this year. N.C. State leads the nation in field goal percentage, hitting 53% of their shots. They've been even better at home, connecting at a 56% while averaging 87 points per game. The Dukies are in tough here and in a game in which the dog has just as good a chance to win as the fave, taking the points or the money is the prudent choice. We'll go with the latter.
Auburn +132 over SOUTH CAROLINA
What most people are going to see is the 10-4 Gamecocks a small price at home over the 7-7 Tigers. What they’re not going to see is that South Carolina has played one of the softest Division I schedules in the country, ranking 344 out of 347. The Gamecocks have not beaten a quality club all year long. When they played the Johnnies back in late November, they were buried by 24 points and followed that up with a 9-point loss to Clemson. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against marshmallows and Auburn collects it here, as USC might just be the SEC’s weakest team.
Auburn is no threat to win anything this year but they’ve played a much tougher schedule than South Carolina, ranking 153rd in the country. There is also positive signs moving forward, as USC carries some momentum into this one. After losing by just a deuce at Illinois on Dec 29, the Tigers responded with back-to-back wins against Florida State and LSU. They bring that streak of three quality outings and two successive victories into this one. Gamecocks are usually ripe to get beat by a conference foe and this is one should be no different. Tigers outright.
Dave Price
Phoenix Suns +8.5
I don't trust the Bulls laying this many points as I believe they'll be in for a letdown following last night's big win over the Knicks. Chicago is 4-15 ATS in home games this season and 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Philadelphia 76ers +1
Philly has the big edge in terms of fresh legs. It has had 2 nights off to rest and prepare while Houston just played last night and will be playing its 4th game in 5 days. The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.
Nelly
NC State + over Duke
NC State has had some struggles this season which is not unexpected with a young but immensely talented team. NC State has rallied to win nine in a row including a few very solid wins over decent teams. NC State will certainly be up for the opportunity to take on the #1 team in the nation, especially after a slim five-point loss at Duke last season in the only meeting between these teams. Ryan Kelly will sit for Duke with a foot injury and Duke struggled without Kelly last season, losing two of three games in tournament play. Duke has played an impressive schedule in non-conference play but the Blue Devils have not played a true road game yet this season. Duke has won six neutral site games and obviously the travel is not significant but Duke could have trouble adjusting to a hostile environment for the first time. NC State has one of the most impressive offensive teams in college basketball; scoring over 81 points per game and shooting 53 percent and the Wolfpack are capable of delivering a minor upset and sending Duke to its first loss. The home team has won five of the last six regular season meetings between these teams and this is a great spot for NC State to play its best.
Charlie Sports
Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers
Play; Philadelphia 76ers
The (21-16) Houston Rockets of the NBA Western Conference Southwest division will take on the (15-22) Philadelphia 76ers of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NBA action. The Rockets beat Philadelphia 125-103 earlier this season at home. The Rockets have dropped their last NBA games straight up and Against The Spread on the road. The 76ers have covered 7 of their last 10 Basketball games vs. Houston, but the Rockets have covered the last 2 meetings. Philadelphia gets the home cover.
Harry Bondi
SAN FRANCISCO (+14) over St. Mary's
In a game that on surface looks like a mismatch, we're actually getting some tremendous value with San Fran plus the points. First and foremost, St. Mary's comes in fresh off a hard-fought 83-78 loss to its bitter rival Gonzaga on Thursday night. That works in favor of San Fran since the Gaels have covered just six of their last 20 the game after facing the Zags. San Fran has also been very good in this series at the betting window, covering 16 of the last 22 meetings. In fact, San Fran is 27-12 ATS the last three years in Big West games and tonight they earn another cover against a St. Mary's team that will once again be in letdown mode after a tough game against Gonzaga. Take those points!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Green Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO: I know in the other thread that I created the Talk was about taking teams that can run and stop the run, but I will go against that theory here. One thing to look at here is experience and Rodgers has a big edge over Kaepernick in that department. Now GB Can't run the ball, but they can stop the run pretty well. If we take out the 3 games they had vs Petersen and the Vikes then the Packs has allowed just 102 ypg on the ground this year. The Packers did allow 186 yards on the ground to SF in the opener, but they are a bit healthier on defense than they were for that one. Overall the Packers defense is 11th in total defense and 11th vs the pass, while allowing just 21 ppg, which is also 11th. This is a tough defense that is just getting better as they have allowed 16.8 ppg in their last 6 games. The Niners offense is 11th overall and 11th in scoring (24.8 ppg). They are 4th in rushing, but just 23rd in passing and Collin was supposed to change that, but he hasn't. He has some solid numbers as QB, but not the experience of a playoff game yet and i feel that will hurt him here. San Fran does have a top notch defense, but I just don't see them stopping Green bay enough on defense or putting up enough of their own points to get the win here. Look for Green Bay to pull it out in the 4th.
Denver/ Baltimore Under 45.5: This Baltimore offense is just a mess right now and very inconsistent as well. Sure they score over 30 ppg at home, but on the road they have put up just 18 ppg and have scored 17 or less in 3 of their last 4 away from home. Despite scoring 30+ at home, they were able to muster just 17 points in a home loss to the Broncos, back in December. I expect them to have more problems vs a Denver defense that comes in ranked 2nd in the league overall, 3rd vs the pass, 3rd vs the run and 4th in points allowed (18.1 ppg). On the other side we do have a Peyton led offense that does score a bunch of points, but they also are a ball control offense that wears you down with long time consuming drives. That will eat plenty of clock here. The Baltimore defense has been playing better of late, allowing just 264.7 ypg and 15.3 ppg in their last 3 games and you can bet that they will look for a better showing than last time vs Denver. 51 points were scored in the earlier meeting, but I don't see this one putting up more than 40. Really just one team will be doing the scoring here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Harvard -12 over DARTMOUTH: Last year the Crimson beat Dartmouth by 16 in both games and they should by at least that much in this one. Harvard is not the same team they were last year, but they are still very good and had a tough non-conference slate, which should have them ready for the Ivy League season. Harvard was really impressive with a two game road trip to the left coast as they beat Cal and then two days later lost by just 1 one point at St Mary's. Dartmouth has nothing on their resume that resembles that. The Big Green has faced just 2 BCS Schools on the year and lost both by 19 and 21 points. Recently Dartmouth lost at home by 16 to a 6-10 Colgate squad and they lost at Boston College by 21 points, while Harvard won their by 16 points. Dartmouth is just not a good team, while Harvard is a good team and has been battle tested. They should win this one by at least 20.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Duke/ NC State Over 149: Despite the fact that Duke is missing Ryan Kelly, I will look to take the Over in this one. NC State loves to run and they will certainly push tempo in this one. Duke has played very good defense of late, but I don’t see that holding up here vs a Wolfpack squad that has averaged 81.3 ppg overall and 86.6 ppg at home. NC State has put up 78 or more in 8 straight games and they are currently on a stretch that has seen 6 games in a row put up 151+ points. The Wolfpack defense is not that strong and they come in allowing 69.7 ppg overall and 71.8 ppg in their last 6 games. Duke comes in averaging 79.3 ppg and even without Kelly they have more than enough offense to put up 75+ here vs this NC State defense, especially in what should be an uptempo game. This game should be a run and gun show from the beginning and could quite possibly put up 160 points.
Missouri/ Mississippi Over 152: This one should be a fun one, that should have the shot clock operator taking the night off. Ole Miss comes in averaging 83.9 ppg and they have scored 85+ in 4 of heir last 5 games and the one game they didn't they put up 81 points. Their home games have averaged 155 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 162.2 ppg. For Missouri, they have been involved in some high scoring games as well, as their last last 5 games have averaged 156.2 ppg. The Tigers come in averaging 78.9 ppg, including 85.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The defenses have been solid for both teams , but these offenses are on just too much of a roll right now to think they can be stopped. I look for this one in the 160's.
More later