Steve Merril
Houston Rockets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers
Houston is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game. The Rockets will be playing their fourth game in five nights and they are also on a back-to-back road set after losing 103-91 in Boston last night. Houston has been terrible in their last two games as they lost both games as their offense scored just 79 and 91 points. They shot just 41.9% (65-155) from the field in those games while going an ugly 30% (18-60) from three-point land. Houston will be playing on tired legs tonight so we expect their offense to struggle once again in this game. Philadelphia comes in off a much needed 2-day break. The Sixers played a grueling 8-game road trip before returning home for one game and then hitting the road for a game in Toronto the following night. The Sixers now have two full days of rest for this game and they are catching a tired Houston team at the perfect time. “It is going to feel awesome,” Jrue Holiday said when asked how playing at home with full rest is going to be. “I can’t wait.” Philadelphia is in an ideal spot to break their 5-game losing streak. We’ll take the points with the rested and hungry home team, especially since their opponent is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game on Saturday night.
Larry Ness
New Mexico St. vs. Idaho
Pick: Idaho
New Mexico St lost quality players like the 6-6 McKines (18.7-10.7), guard Larouche (11.9) and the 6-11 Rahman (9.9-5.8) from LY’s 26-win NCAA team and comes into this game 9-8 overall (3-2 in the WAC). Sophomore guard Mullings (15.3-5.6) is the leading scorer but the Aggies’ strength is their depth up front. Watson (10.8-5.2) is a 6-5 small forward with the 6-8 Sy (9.7-6.8), the 6-10 Nephawe (7.2-5.2) and the 7-5 Bhullar (9.5-4.7). However, Tshilidzi Nephawe underwent hand surgery in mid-Dec and is out indefinitely, putting a 'dent' in that frontcourt depth. Don Verlin is in his fifth season at Idaho and has taken the Vandals to the CIT three times (not exactly the NCAA or the NIT but it is postseason play). The Vandals have the 6-10 Barone (15.3-8.4) and 6-5 SF Madison (15.2-4.7), two players who should give them an excellent chance to take down the Aggies. NMSU is just 2-6 SU and ASTS on the road, beating only South Alabama (8-7) earlier TY and 5-9 Seattle just last Thursday, 83-82 in OT. After nearly knocking off Utah State five days earlier, the Vandals were stymied by Denver at the Cowan Spectrum on Thursday as they scored a mere 49 points. Idaho led at the half and held a 44-41 lead with just over three minutes left in the game, but couldn't close the deal. Verlin's team was able to beat New Mexico St's excellent team LY at this venue, so expect nothing less, here.
Brad Diamond
LaSalle -9
Explorers travel home after being roasted at Charlotte this week as once again their shooting (Galloway) was less than spectacular from three. Guard oriented offense gets relieve today as the front line for the Spiders has injury issues.
Dennis Macklin
San Diego State -5
This was supposed to be the year for Colorado State and while they are much improved, they haven't played like a team bringing back the fifth most experienced club (in terms of starts) in the country. The Rams two road losses were both by nine points, one to a not very good Illinois-Chicago and the other to in-state rival Colorado. In the end, CSU is a pretty good middle of the pack school in a very good Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is very good and somewhat underrated despite being ranked. The Aztecs lost their opener in a rescheduled game on an aircraft carrier and by a point to Arizona in Maui. SDSU has won 11 of 12 in the series and is off a very flat effort against Fresno State. Expect a much more focused shoot-the-lights-out performance here in an easy double-digit points home win.
Scott Delaney
My 69-43-2 freebie run is on the line tonight, as I look to nail No. 7 of 10 with comp plays with South Alabama in Sun Belt play in Denton, Texas against the North Texas Mean Green.
I know North Texas has won three straight meetings in this series, but something tells me the better team in the Ratings Percentage Index is the play here, and should win outright.
South Alabama (8-7, 5-2) comes in after a momentous two-overtime win against Louisiana-Lafayette, 91-89, while North Texas (6-11, 1-5) lost on the road at Arkansas-Little Rock, 67-53. And I say momentous for the Jaguars because they rallied from a six-point deficit in the final three minutes, the largest second-half comeback by the team this season, to force the extra session.
I'm intrigued with the matchup between South Alabama's Augustine Rubit and the league’s preseason player of the year, North Texas' Tony Mitchell, who ranks seventh in the league in scoring (14.6), fourth in rebounding (8.9) and second in blocks (2.5).
While Rubit’s six-game streak with double-doubles came to an end Thursday with a game-high-tying 26 points and nine rebounds, he's still tied atop the league with nine double-doubles.
Though Mitchell has the home crowd benefit, Rubit is the type of player who will take over a game and silence any arena on the road.
The Jags have covered five of seven in Sun Belt action while the Mean Green are mired in ATS slides of 1-6 in league play, 0-4 on Saturdays, 2-5 at home and 1-4 overall. I'm playing the road pup, looking for an outright and counting on Rubit to lead the way.
2♦ SOUTH ALABAMA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie comes in ACC action, as I back the Seminoles at home over the Tar Heels.
Florida State has caught traction, as the Sems come into this game having won six of their last seven games, including a weeknight upset win at Maryland as State was able to stop a 13-game Terrapins winning streak.
North Carolina has really struggled with all of their departures, as Roy WIlliams' crew heads to Tallahassee having lost their last pair, including an ugly home loss on Thursday night to Miami-Florida.
The Heels are just 2-3 straight up away from Chapel Hill, and you should know that UNC has not fared well in recent meetings with Florida State, as the Seminoles own a two game series winning streak, and have taken four of the last six series meetings from the once-mighty Tar Heels.
This is Florida State's first home game since December 17th, so expect a rapid home crowd rooting their school on. There is no love lost between these schools, and any time you get a shot at North Carolina when they are in a down season, you better take advantage.
State to do just that today!
Back Florida State as the small home favorite.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE
Matt Rivers
A lot has changed since these teams opened the season at Lambeau Field with the 49ers winning a 30-22 affair, but what I don't think has changed much is the fact these teams will once again put points on the scoreboard.
My free play for Saturday is the Over in the Packers-Niners contest.
This will be the fifth meeting between the teams since the 2006 season, and all four of the previous meetings have landed Over the total.
Green Bay comes in off a 24-10 playoff win over Minnesota, and while the defense did shut the Vikings down, let's keep in mind that backup Joe Webb was quarterbacking Minnesota in that game. The week before the Pack did allow 37 in their loss at Minnesota!
The Green Bay offense finally has their receiving corps back and healthy, and they do come to Candlestick averaging over 30 points per game their last six contests. Expect the Packers to find the end zone in this game,
As for San Francisco, the 49ers have played Over the total their last four games, and seven of their last eight overall have also played Over.
Stick with the established series trends, and the offensive nature of the teams coming into this game, as the Packers-Niners head Over the total one more time.
3♦ GREEN BAY-SAN FRANCISCO OVER
Red Dog Sports
UNC at Florida State
pLAY: UNC +4.5
UNC is off a bad home loss to Miami and lost at Virginia last Sunday. They are 0-2 in the ACC and have only started 0-3 in the ACC once. UNC's players have now experienced one home and one away ACC game under Roy Williams in 2013.
UNC has some talent in James McAdoo, who scores at close to 14 ppg while Reggie Bullock contributes on offense and defense. UNC has just one senior and that is Dexter Strickland, who failed to score on Thursday and should be motivated.
FSU lost at Clemson and seems to be average this year. They did lose to Florida Gulf Coast. They are led by Michael Snaer and beat UNC for the ACC Tournament title last year. The Tar Heels will look for revenge today.
Teddy Covers
Memphis vs. Dallas
Pick: Memphis
The betting markets have overvalued the Dallas Mavericks from Day 1 this year, and things haven’t really changed since Dirk Nowitzki returned to the lineup following a two month injury absence.
Dallas has won a grand total of four games in the last month. Two of those wins came against Sacramento. One came against Washington. And one came against Philly, against a Sixers team that is on a 3-13 slide over the last month. In other words, the Mavs haven’t been good enough to beat anyone but bottom feeders, yet they’re being priced in a range where they’ll need to beat an elite team in order to cash a winning bet tonight.
Memphis, on the other hand, has been an undervalued commodity since Day 1; a small market team without a marquee superstar. They’ve got the single best ATS mark in the entire NBA, and they’ve been at their absolute best in this ‘short favorite’ role: 12-2 ATS in 14 tries as chalk of 6.5 points or less. They’re 4-1 ATS on the highway playing on the second night of back-2-backs this year, primed to close out their road trip with another comfortable victory here! Cheap price to lay with the vastly superior team! Take the Grizzlies.
Freddy Wills
Pepperdine +100
I think we get good value with Pepperdine being home here. Vegas had these two teams only a 1/2 point away just a few years ago when San Diego played Portland as a -6 favorite, one game before Pepperdine played Portland as a -5.5 at home. Both teams lost those games and then San Diego went on the road and upset San Fran as a +5.5 so here comes a let down spot against a Pepperdine team they beat three times last year. I view both of these teams on equal levels here and I think Pepperdine wants to get some momentum here after already facing BYU and Gonzaga in conference play. They get senior PG Lorne Jackson back after he missed last year and given what I saw in each teams game against a common opponent I think we are getting good value here. The home team is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 meetings.