Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 1,2011

TEDDY COVERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan @ Mississippi St.
PICK: Over 59.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan’s defense spent the season getting torched in every way imaginable, unable to stop the run or the pass. Seven of the Wolverines eight Big 10 opponents scored 34 points or more against them. Five of their last seven foes gained more than 200 net yards on the ground.
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Michigan’s step-up-in-class opponents absolutely dominated the Wolverines on the ground. Michigan State netted 272 rushing yards, 6.9 per carry. Illinois gained 318 on the ground against them; 5.3 ypc. Wisconsin had 367 rushing yards against the Wolverines, 6.4 ypc. And Ohio State closed out the season by running for 271 net yards against Michigan’s defense; 6.3 yards per carry.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi State can run the ball with any of those Big 10 powerhouses. And with extra time to prepare, look for former Florida offensive coordinator and current Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen to devise a gameplan that sets up QB Chris Relf to make throws like he did in his regular season finale: 288 yards and three TD’s against Ole Miss, averaging a whopping 14.4 yards per attempt. Expect the Bulldogs to do what every solid foe has done against Michigan all year – score points in bunches.
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But don’t underestimate Michigan’s ability to trade points, even against a solid SEC defense. Wolverines QB Denard Robinson would have garnered Heisman consideration on a better team; throwing for more than 2300 yards while running for more than 1600. Playing to save head coach Rich Rodriguez’s job, look for another inspired effort from this potent offense, sending yet another Michigan game flying Over the total. 2* Take the Over.

Chip ChirimbesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Texas Tech FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Northwestern +10FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If Northwestern (7-5 #3-9) had the services of the nation's leading passer quarterback Dan Persa (73.5% completions) I would not have any problems up-grading this selection but, things being what they are I still believe that the Wildcats have enough to 'cover' here. Persa's replacement Evan Watkins has three games and four weeks of practice under his belt and he is facing in Texas Tech (7-5, #6-6) the nation's 116 ranked defense surrendering 463 yards per game. The Red Raiders defensive coordinator. James Willis is no longer with the team.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut vs. OklahomaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Connecticut +17FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The UConn Huskies (8-4 SU/7-4 ATS) put aside their QB troubles (suspending junior QB Cody Endres (5 TDs, 2 INTs), and finished up on a 5-0 SU/ATS run to win the Big East for Coach Randy Edsell. They did it with defense, giving up 19.8 ppg, 23rd in the nation, and senior QB Zach Frazer (5 TDs, 4 INTs, 1,202 yards). The Ok-State Sooner defense has given up at least 20 points in 8 of their 12 games.Oklahoma struggled against Cincinnati of the Big East, a 31-29 win at home, while UConn whipped the Bearcats, 38-17. Play UConn!

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3* Florida -7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Reasons why Florida will cover:
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1) This is the final game for Florida head coach Urban Meyer, and you have to believe the Gators are going to want to send their coach out in style. The Nittany Lions struggled to do much of anything against the top teams in the Big Ten, and likely won't even make a game of it on Saturday.
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2) Florida is 24-12 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, and a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
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3) Penn State is just 16-35 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992, and are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech -9FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern remains without their starting quarterback in Dan Persa, and ever since they lost him they have been a completely different team. Persa was their entire offense, throwing for 2,581 yards and 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions while completing 73.5 percent of his passes. He had also rushed for 519 yards and 9 touchdowns before suffering an Achilles injury in their huge 21-17 win over Iowa. Evan Watkins took his place under center, and the results were not good. Watkins has thrown for just 302 yards with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions while completing only 53.1 percent of his passes in Persa's place.
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The result: a 27-48 loss to Illinois on 11/20 and a 23-70 setback against Illinois on 11/27 to close out their season with two blowout losses by a combined 78 points. Simply put, Northwestern does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Texas Tech Saturday. The Red Raiders are scoring 32.1 PPG this season and averaging 453 TYPG with 138 on the ground and 315 through the air. This is a soft Wildcats defense, one that gives up 33.1 PPG and 456 TYPG away from home this year. Northwestern is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better this season. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Take Texas Tech Saturday.

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1* on Michigan +4FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan players have voiced their confidence in Rich Rodriguez, with junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen saying it may be in some of their minds that they might be playing for their coach's job in the Gator Bowl. "Personally, I'm all in for coach Rodriguez and everything he does," Van Bergen said. "All people see is the stuff that goes on camera. You can't understand what happens at Schembechler Hall. He cares about his players as much as any other coach in college football. That's what we like about him and why we embrace him." Look for his players to lay it all on the line for Rodriquez and save his job with an upset victory in the Gator Bowl Saturday. Rodriguez appears to have the best player on either side in Denard Robinson. The sophomore helped guide an offense that ranked sixth in the FBS with an average of 500.9 yards, and he set the NCAA record for most rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,643. With this offense, the Wolverines have a shot against anyone. And all this extra practice time will have improvement from the defense showing through Saturday. The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. They win this one for their head coach. Take Michigan and the points.

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TCU vs. Wisconsin
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Last year college football fans complained that the BCS wasn't giving non AQ schools a shot to knock off one of the big BCS schools when they paired Texas Christian University against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU lost that game, but will get a shot at beating a Big Ten champion when they go head to head with Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers have put together an incredible 11-1 season and were one of the most prolific offenses towards the end of the year. The undefeated 12-0 Horned Frogs weren't too shabby either. This game promises to be a hard fought and closely matched contest.
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This game opened with TCU as a 3 point favorite. These teams are tied in PPG at 43.3. The Horned Frogs lead the nation Points Against at 11.4 compared to 20.5 for the Badgers. Both teams are 6-5 ATS. The total opened at 56.5, but has since moved to 58.5. This could be partly due to the fact that Wisconsin has put up 70 points twice and 83 points once this year. The total has gone over in 7 of their last 8 games. TCU clearly knows how to score as well.
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Senior QB Scott Tolzien has done a good job calling the shots in the huddle for Wisconsin. Tolzien has the best completion percentage in the country at 74.3%. He has passed for 2,300 yards and 16 TDs this year. His best game of the year was the last one he played in which he completed 15 of 19 passes for 230 yards and 4 TDs this year. Tolzien has worked him magic behind an offensive line that is among the largest in the country. These boys are BIG. They are a large reason why Wisconsin has perhaps the best rushing attack in the FBS.
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Both freshman James White and junior John Clay are prolific runners. Clay has missed the Badger's last three games, but still owns 936 yards and 13 TDs this year. He had 104 yards and 2 TDs against Ohio State. White has been incredible late in the year with 1,029 yards and 14 TDs. Establishing the run will be priority number one for Wisconsin. They have produced 300+ rushing yards and 500+ total yards in each of their last three games.
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2009 AP Coach of the Year Gary Patterson has his offense running like a well oiled machine, albeit against lesser competition. QB Andy Dalton has improved by leaps and bounds in his senior year. The 6-3 Katy, TX native has 2,638 yards and 26 TDs this year. He showed great poise completing 24 of 36 passes for 273 yards and 4 TDs against BYU. His top WR, Jeremy Kerley, had 3 TD catches against San Diego State. The running game will be very important for TCU. They have two strong sophomore RBs named Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker. The latter has 694 yards and 7 TDs this year. Wesley has better stats at 1,065 yards and 11 TDs. Look for Patterson to make good use of both RBs.
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The Wisconsin defense has really stepped their game up in big events. They held the Buckeyes of Ohio State to 311 total yards and 18 points. The prolific Michigan offense could only muster 28 points against Wisconsin.
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While the Badgers have a good defense, the Horned Frogs have a great one. They rank the best in the country in many categories, including Points Against. They shut out both Wyoming and Colorado State and held BYU to 3 points and Utah to just 7. They will match their speed against Wisconsin's size.
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You won't hear us making a case for TCU being the best team in the country. That has to be earned on the field, and we aknoweledge that their schedule cannot compare to other major conferences. However, they did what they had to do against every team they faced, including the "good teams". They blew them off the field. No one came close with the exception of Oregon State who lost 30-21 and a good San Diego State team. They hammered Utah, Air Force, BYU, SMU and Baylor.
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We look at games Wisconsin played against Arizona State, UNLV and San Jose to show that a team like TCU can play with the Badgers. We also note that their bog claim to fame this year was beating Ohio State, but at the same time, they came up short against Michigan State. Also note that their run down the stretch putting up big numbers didn't exactly come against teams with a defense to speak of. Purdue, Michigan, Indiana and Northwestern weren't exactly powerhouses this year. TCU would have destroyed them as well.
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Lastly, we also love the motivational angle here. Both teams will be pumped, but for a program like TCU to be able to show it's stuff in the Rose Bowl, that's huge. Everyone remembers what happened when Boise State got it's big chance against Oklahoma a few years ago.
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Wisconsin is much bigger. They'll be able to get that running game cranking. But where TCU lacks size, they make up for it with speed. When we break this down by the numbers, it comes up TCU. At first you might think schedule strength is the reason, but when you look at schedule strength using any of the major nationally known power ratings, Sagarin for example, you'll see that their schedule strength was basically the same. A very slight edge to Wisky.
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Our score prediction model has TCU winning by a comfortable margin of 33-18. Other numbers we use also back up a play on TCU, although not by as wide of a margin. Overall we just think it's a good spot for TCU. Anytimes our numbers indicate a side and the motivational edge also line up on that side, it's a no brainers for us, we play.
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We're going to play this one on the moneyline. If you're not comfortable doing so, we'd still play it at -3 or -2.5 with the half point buy. We would imagine that Wisconsin money will come in on game day bring this number down. So it's likely best to wait before you play.
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3* Key Release TCU PK -150

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee BucksLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Dallas MavericksTHE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mavericks first order of business in this New Year will be to avenge an earlier 103-99 home loss to the Bucks and we don?t need their 10-5 ATS series log with revenge, including 4-1 ATS away, to tell us they'll get it. That's because the best road team in the league (11-1) is also 11-0-1 ATS as a dog or a favorite of three or less points this season. The first of this two-game road trip also takes them to the friendly confines of the Bradley Center where the Bucks are just 4-9-1 ATS to date. This 2011 tip-off also finds the hosts in the unenviable task of just running with the Bulls (15-28 ATS at home after Chicago) with a peek ahead to South Beach and the Heat. New Years in Milwaukee may not be like Time in New England but this one is clear Cuban gets his revenge. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dallas.

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan at Miss StFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Over 59.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Good news for our over Michigan can score at will plus they get scored on just as easily. In fact this team has allowed 33 pts per game in a Big Ten conference not known for scoring. This one looks like a 40 plus outburst for both.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -12FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Golden State fits a negative system tonight that is 1-11 straight up and 2-10 ats since 1995. What we want to do is play against road dogs with no rest at +5 or more if the total is 200 or higher and they were a road dog of 4 or less scoring 90 or less and the opponent or play on team was a road favorite of 5 or more. The Warriors were easily handles at home vs Miami earlier in the season and have difficulty scoring against good defensive teams. They are 2-13 when scoring less than 100 this season are a 0-4 straight up and ats loss as a road dog from +9.5 to 12. Miami is on a major roll and they are 5-0 straight up and ats vs Pacific division teams. Look for a decisive win for the Heat tonight.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan vs. Mississippi St
Play: Michigan +3.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan is a fantastic offensive team as the Wolverines averaged 34.3 points per game and 6.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allowed just 24.6 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Michigan is extremely balanced on offense as they run for 251 yards per game and pass for 250 yards. Overall, the Wolverines are averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 8.7 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 4.3 ypr and 7.1 ypp). Mississippi State is a solid defensive team, but they will still struggle to stop Michigan’s potent attack, especially now that star quarterback Denard Robinson has a full month to rest and get healthy. Michigan has been awful on defense this season, but Mississippi State is a weak offensive team that will probably be unable to take advantage. The Bulldogs averaged just 17 points per game and only 4.6 yards per play this season versus their 7 bowl opponents, compared to a Michigan squad that averaged 30 points and 6.2 yards per play versus their 8 bowl opponents. Michigan’s biggest weakness on defense this season was their secondary as the Wolverines allowed a horrendous 8.0 yards per pass (versus opponents that averaged just 7.0 ypp), but it is unlikely that Mississippi State can exploit this weakness as the Bulldogs have a poor passing offense that averages just 177 yards per game (versus opponents that allow 221 yards). Mississippi State runs the ball for 55% of their total offensive yards on 68% of their total offensive plays, but they will now be facing a solid Michigan rush defense that allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that averaged 4.5 ypr).

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola-Chicago @ Youngstown State
PICK: Youngstown State +4FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Youngstown State is 6-0 at home and has won two of the last three meetings with the loss being in overtime. The Penguins are coming off a 71-69 win over Illinois-Chicago in which junior guard Ashen Ward scored 26 points. Vytus Sulskis leads the team with a 16.5 scoring average and 6-7 sophomore Damian Eargle is dominant in the post with 36 blocks this season. Loyola Chicago has lost five of its last seven and the only wins were against SIU-Edwardsville and Texas Pan-American. The Ramblers lost by 18 points at Cleveland State on Thursday and no player scored in double figures - Walt Gibler and Courtney Stanley each had nine. Youngstown State shoots 38.4 percent from the 3-point line on its home court and it's 6-0-2 ATS at home against teams with winning road records. I'm taking the points with home underdog Youngstown State on Saturday afternoon.

EZWINNERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn St Nittany Lions +7
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Penn State and Florida both enter this game coming off of disappointing 7-5 seasons. I think asking the Gators to win this game by more than a touchdown is asking quite a bit. Neither of these teams offenses lit up the scoreboard this season and running the ball was the strength of both of these teams. I expect to see more of the same in this bowl game. Penn States running back Evan Royster will carry the load for the Nittany Lions, but Florida's best running back Jeffery Demps will likely be playing at less than 100%. Quarterback play has been shakey for both teams this year and I expect that to continue in this game. Look for this one to go down to the wire and for one of these teams to win it by a field goal. Take the points.

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS

3★ NORTHWESTERN (+)

This is the inaugural year of the TicketCity Bowl which will be played at the Cotton Bowl and fittingly this is the 1st matchup for these programs. The Raiders return to the post season for the 11th str year (6-4 SU/4-6 ATS) and they are the only tm in the B12 to be bowl elig every ssn in the conf’s existence. TT is now led by Tuberville who is 6-3 SU/ATS in bowls in his career. NW is headed to its 3rd str bowl under Fitzgerald who is 0-2 SU/2-0 ATS in his career and he has made it the program’s goal to win a bowl gm for the 1st time S/’48 (lost L/7). TT played Baylor in this stadium on Oct 9th beating the bowl bound Bears 45-38 as a 1 pt fav while this is the Cats 1st trip here. TT will have a significant crowd edge as Lubbock is a 6 hr drive from Dallas and they have many alums in the area. NW went 1-4 SU/ATS vs bowl teams getting outscored 41-24 and outgained 495-355. TT went 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS being outscored 34-26 and outgained 492-455. The Raiders went 2-1-1 as an AF TY while the Cats were 0-3 as an dog outside of Ryan Field with 2 contests coming after 1st Tm B10 QB Persa was KO’d for the ssn.

After throwing the GW TD pass to knock off Iowa, Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon. Persa had accounted for 75.5% of NW’s offense and his 73.5% comp set a school record and is #2 in B10 history. His replacement is 6’6” pocket passer Watkins who hit 129 (55%) with a 1-4 ratio (49 rush) in his 2 sts and the Cats actually burned the RS of the more mobile Colten for the L/2. The 2 QB’s comb for 6 TO’s in the finale loss to Wisky and Ftizgerald vowed the squad would get right back to work with pract so the frosh QB’s could get more exp before the bowl. The Cats started 4 diff TB’s before finally settling on Trumpy whose 80 yd TD run vs IL was the Cats’ longest S/‘82 although he missed the finale and is ? here (fractured wrist). WR Ebert stepped up as all star caliber TE/SB Dunsmore battled inj’s. The OL (6’5” 303, 1 Sr) all’d the most sk among bowl tms (39, 11%). The DL is led by DE Browne who has 7 of their 8.5 sks up front. Nate Williams is the top tackler among the LB’s but the unit has a tendency to overpursue which opens up cutback lanes which IL’s OC Petrino cited as a reason for the Illini’s 519 rush yds. NW finished #36 pass eff D (231, 59%, 21-14) led by #1 tkl’r S Peters and top cover CB Mabin. K Demos struggled at times (missing 2 FG’s in the Purdue loss) and would like to atone for missing the potential GW in LY’s wild OT bowl loss to Auburn. P Williams is #3 B10 in net (38.2) with good placement (18 FC) and their 3.3 ypr all’d is #4 in the NCAA. True Fr Mark set a school record with 273 KR yds vs Wisky including a 94 yd TD.

Tuberville vowed to keep the Air Raid offense but he added more of an emphasis on the run gm and after running for over 140 yd in a gm 18x in the previous 10Y, the Raiders did it 7x TY led by the combo of Batch and Stephens. The pass #’s shrunk as expected -72 ypg although QB Potts finished as the B12’s #3 passer. After Potts was briefly benched for fan favorite Sheffield who got the start vs MO, he returned to finish out the yr. The receiving corps battled inj’s to #3 rec Torres and #5 Franks but Leong finished #2 FBS in TD rec. The OL (6’5” 313) struggled early on with run blocking after lining up in wide splits under Leach but improved with exp (no Sr’s) and allowed 21 sk (3.7%). The D also had a major scheme change as they went to a 3-4. Depth was a major issue and Tuberville numerous times bemoaned the unit’s lack of speed until he eventually said the best way for them to win was to simply outscore people. 1st Tm B12 NT Whitlock was solid in the middle with the top sk’r being ex-LB Duncan. LB Bird was the tm’s top tkl’r. Inj’s really hit the secondary hard as TT’s pass D finished dead last in the FBS ypg all’d although they were #87 in our pass eff D (306, 62%, 27-14). TT was #36 in ST’s even though they allowed onside K’s to be ret’d for TD’s in B2B gms vs ISU and Baylor. P LaCour’s net of 38.8 was #16 NCAA and KR Stephens remains 1 of the B12’s best. PR Lewis (6.2) was mediocre and the K gm was an adventure as Williams and Carona combined to hit 9-14 with 3 blk’s. The Raiders allowed 5.8 on PR and 20.7 on PR and blk’d 2 P’s.

A disappointing finish for NW, losing by 21 and 47 after losing QB Persa. No question, Fitzgerald will have new QB Watkins ready with the extra prep time. TT finished the season with wins vs Weber and Houston but did not beat a BCS team by more than 7 pts on the season. Give the edge to the better defense with the better coach getting the generous points

Penn St vs Florida RATING: NO PLAY

A topsy-turvy ssn comes to an end on NY’s day for UF and PSU. UF has won both prev matchups in the ‘62 Gator and the ‘98 FL Citrus (21-6, -13’). PSU plays in its 4th ever Outback Bowl going 3-0 SU/ATS. Paterno is the all-time bowl win leader going 24-11-1 SU/22-10-1 ATS and is 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 vs SEC tms in bowls. UF is playing in their 20th consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) and Meyer is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl 4-1 at UF. This is UF’s 4th trip to the Outback (1-2 SU/ATS). UF’s fans are used to more prestigious bowls w/BCS bids in 3 of the L/4Y but UF will clearly have the home crowd edge as fans will come out to support Meyer in his last gm. UF is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road (incl OT win vs GA) TY. PSU went 0-3 SU/ATS as an AD TY losing all 3 to ‘09 BCS bowl winners. PSU now faces a 4th BCS bowl winner here (1st tm in history) but also lost 4 gms by 20+ for the 1st time in tm history. PSU is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 27-19 and outgained 372-361 while UF is 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS vs bowl tms but outscored those tms 25-23 (outgained them 326-325). Both lost to AL but UF actually outgained the Tide 281-273 while PSU was outgained 409-283.

Rob Bolden became the 1st true Fr QB to start in the Paterno era. Bolden struggled getting the ball downfield causing D’s to put more players in the box to stop PSU’s all-time leading rusher Royster. When Bolden was hurt vs Minn, McGloin came off of the bench to hit 6-13 and 2 TD’s. In his 1st start he led the Lions to a win over Mich with their biggest yd and pt totals of the ssn. Bolden started vs NW but McGloin led them to PSU’s biggest comeback ever (trailing 21-0). Vs OSU McGloin threw the 1st PSU TD passes of the B10 era in Columbus while taking PSU to a 14-3 HT lead. In the 2H he threw 2 pick sixes but he started the L/2 with Paterno naming him the bowl’s QB starter. Top WR Moye’s play picked up with McGloin at QB. Although all 5 OL (6’3” 301, 1 Sr) ply’d a diff position LY PSU all’d just 12 sks (3.1%). Thanks to inj’s and attrition the D never quite lived up to the standards of recent editions (top 15 NCAA scoring and ttl D from ‘04-’09). The star up front is DT Ogbu with the DE’s probably the unit’s most banged up position. The LB’s also had their inj woes as top LB Mauti missed the L/2 (shldr). PSU had the #64 pass eff D (188, 62%, 19-9). The ST finished #38 although PSU will be w/o their top P Fera who missed the L/2 and was replaced by walk-on true Fr Butterworth and the tm finished w/a 38.4 net. K Wagner hit 8-10 from 40+. PSU all’d 7.3 on PR and 20.7 on KR.

Tough yr for mighty UF as the off took a nosedive w/o QB Tebow and struggled with inj’s at RB all yr. QB Brantley is more of a pure passer and not well suited to the Tebow-ran off, so adjustments were eventually made w/TE Reed and bkup QB Burton serving as the Tebow-like QB’s while Brantley remained the st’r and threw most of the passes. RB Demps is one of the fastest players in the nation (Olympic trials 100m) but suffered from a foot inj which limited him almost all yr (2 gms missed-won’t be 100% for bowl). After his 5 gm susp, WR Rainey helped out at RB and WR and is one of the top off threats on the tm. The OL (6’4” 322, 4 Sr) was shaky w/OG Mike Pouncey moving to C to take over for his twin brother Maurkice (1st RD DC). In the opener snaps were flying everywhere and UF was held below 100 yds rushing in 4 gms TY (Mia OH, AL, LSU, SC) and only 1 LY (AL) with the rush avg falling from 222 ypg (5.6) in ‘09 to 166 ypg (4.3) TY. Overall UF finished #32 on off and #13 on D. New DC Austin faced a tough rebuilding job replacing 5 DC’s (all 1st 3 Rd’s). They all’d 50 ypg more than LY (303 ypg) and 8.7 ppg more. UF’s D only generated 21 sks (tied #10 SEC) after from 39 LY. The DL avg 6’3” 278 with 3 Sr st’rs but loses DL cch McCarney who was hired as NT’s HC. UF all’d 130 ypg rush, its most S/’04. One bright spot is the secondary that is #11 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (55%) with a 16-17 ratio led by #1 tkl’r S Black and CB Jenkins. The ST’s are always strong (#3) with P Henry leading the nation in avg and net. One weak spot is kicking as P Henry was forced to take over for the inj’d Sturgis.

If we told you PSU was facing UF in a bowl - it wouldn’t be with a pair of 7-5 tms. If we told you that it was Meyer vs Paterno and one was going to retire - it wouldn’t be Meyer. While we initially sided with PSU, Meyer’s sudden retirement has caused us to reevaluate this game as we wait to see how the team and fan base responds.

4★ ALABAMA

This bowl pairs AL HC Nick Saban vs his former tm where he was 34-24-1 from ‘95-’99 with MSU HC Dantonio serving as his DB cch. This is the 1st meeting between these 2 and the 1st time Saban’s faced MSU since leaving there. MSU won a share of the B10 Title for the 1st time S/‘90 and now plays in just their 3rd Jan bowl S/’89. Moments after the ND win B10 Cch of the Yr Dantonio suffered a mild heart attack and the tm was led to 2 wins incl 1 over Wisky by OC Treadwell. The team rallied for incredible 4Q comebacks vs NW and Purdue to finish with a program record 11 wins. This is the Spartans’ 4th bowl under Dantonio (0-3 SU/1-2 ATS). MSU has played their bowl game in Orlando 3 out of the L/4Y (‘07, ‘08) and is 1-1 SU/ATS in this bowl, losing 24-12 to UGA and QB Stafford as an 8’ pt dog in ‘08. The Spartans are 3-8 as dog the L/3Y (2-1 TY). AL was selected over LSU because they have never played in the Capital One while LSU was here LY. Saban is 5-6 SU/ATS in bowls (2-1 SU/ATS at Bama). Orlando is about a 9 hr drive from Tuscaloosa so the Tide should have a strong fan following for this one. UA is 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring those tms by 27-17 and outgaining them by 462-333. MSU is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outgaining those tms by 410-356. Both tms faced PSU with AL winning 24-3 (409-283 edge) and MSU winning 28-22 (outgained 396-331).

MSU’s off leader is QB Cousins who fought off shldr and ankle inj’s to score the GW TD vs Purdue to cap a 22 pt 4Q. He should be 100% with the time off and finished #19 NCAA pass eff. MSU had over 200 rush yd in their first 4 for the 1st time S/’68 and RB Baker became just the 6th MSU soph to run for 1,000 yds. The rec corps is deep with 5 WR and 2 TE’s seeing regular action incl WR’s Dell and Cunningham and All-B10 TE Gantt. The OL (6’5” 300, 3 Sr) all’d 19 sk (5.5%) with a strong left side (LG Foreman and LT Young). The Spartans have our #37 off and #32 D. MSU’s star up front is Worthy who led the tm in sks with just 4 from his DT spot. The LB’s feature the FBS’s most productive duo in AA Jones and Gordon who were the tm’s top 2 tkl’rs. After allowing a 32-6 ratio in ‘09 (#103 pass eff D), the Spartans improved to 18-17 TY (#22) with all 4 st’rs named All-B10. MSU’s 3 biggest plays of the season came on ST: the blk’d punt vs PU, “Little Giants”: the fake FG in which holder Bates hit TE Gantt for a 28 yd TD pass to beat ND and the “Mousetrap”: trailing NW 24-14 in the 4Q, a fake P on 4&11 at the NW36 in which Bates hit a 21 yd pass to Fowler. P Bates led the B10 in avg and was #2 in net (38.2). K Conroy hit his 1st 13 FG’s in the 1st 7 gms before cooling off to hit just 1-2 in the final 5. Martin led the league in PR at 14.2 incl the pivotal 74 yd TD vs Wisky. The Spartans allow 8.7 on PR and 21.1 on KR and finished #49 in ST.

After AL earned their first Nat’l Title since ‘92 LY, a 9-3 ssn seems disappointing. Still this is one of the most talented teams in the country with their only losses to 2 squads in the SEC Title gm and 10-2 LSU. QB McElroy entered the ssn 30-0 as a starting QB in HS and college (now 39-3). McElroy was still efficient but held onto the ball too long resulting in 32 sks (+12 from LY). 2009 Heisman winner RB Ingram is a Michigan native but suffered a knee inj in Aug and missed the 1st 2. Backup Richardson suffered a knee inj midssn and also missed 2. The rushing production fell by 40 ypg (175, 5.0). On the bright side super WR Jones stayed healthy TY for his 1st 1,000 yd ssn. The OL avg 6’4” 301 with 1 Sr st’r. Overall AL has our #13 off and #2 def. Super DE Dareus was susp the 1st 2 and he was the most exp plyr returning to the DL in ‘10. The DL starters avg 6’3” 312 with 0 Sr’s. LB Hightower ret’d TY after a knee inj cut his ‘09 ssn short but wasn’t as dominating as expected and JLB Upshaw led the tm in sks and tfl. The secondary was quite inexperienced heading into the ssn but developed nicely with new FS Lester leading the SEC in int. AL ranks #4 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (53%) with an excellent 11-21 ratio vs a strong slate of opposing QB’s. A big loss is AL defensive leader SS Barron who will miss the bowl with a torn pectoral muscle. AL is #18 in our ST rankings led by excellent PR Maze and KR Richardson.

There’s only one question in this entire writeup and that’s motivation. Take a look at the checklist and you’ll see it’s a complete shutout as Bama has a 14’-0 edge. While the loss to Aub will be tough to rebound from, we have to believe that they’ll consider a 10 win season a success. MSU was hoping for a BCS berth but the truth is, the last time they faced a quality D on the road they were destroyed 37-6 to Iowa (trailed 30-0 at half).

2★ Michigan/Miss St OVER

Michigan returns to the postssn for the 1st time S/’07 and their 1st ever matchup with Miss St. This is UM’s 3rd appearance in the Gator Bowl (1-1 SU/ATS) with their last visit in ‘90 and they are 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS in bowls vs SEC tms. Rich Rod is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in bowls. MSU makes its 1st bowl appearance S/’07’s Liberty Bowl win over UCF. It is Mullen’s 1st bowl gm as a HC but of course he was part of Urban Meyer’s FL and Utah staffs that went to bowls. This is MSU’s 1st NY’s Day bowl S/’99 and just the 10th meeting with a current B10 tm (Illini in ‘80). The Bulldogs sold out their original allotment of tix even before the destination was announced and asked for more while UM will bring fans for its 1st bowl in 3 yrs. MSU is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY and covered both times they were a road fav incl a 5H GOM Winner for us vs Hou. UM is 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS on the road TY. MSU is 3-4 SU/ATS vs bowl tms TY getting outscored 21-17 and outgained 378-312 while UM is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 37-30 and just slightly outgained 479-475.

Rodriguez finally found the perfect QB in B10’s OPY Robinson to run his spread. FL native Robinson exploded for UM QB ttl off records in his 1st 2 sts, earning nat’l POW honors vs Conn and ND. Robinson was considered the front runner for the Heisman until his 3 int vs Mich St (2 in EZ) doomed UM and D’s learned how to contain him. He also was banged up as he left several gms due to inj. Robinson still finished the ssn with a IA QB rush record 1,643 yds and became the first IA QB to run for 1,500 yds and throw for 2,000. UM went with a RB-by-committee as leading TB rusher Smith wasn’t quite 100% to start the yr. The leading receiver was Roundtree who had a UM record 246 yd vs IL but struggled with drops. The OL (6’5” 302, 2 Sr) is anchored by All-B10 C Molk. UM all’d just 11 sks and their 5.7 ypc led the B10. UM was held to fewer than 27 pts just twice TY by B10 co-champs MSU and OSU and finished as our #8 off. Attrition caused the Wolves to play 6 true Fr on D (#80). DC Robinson’s controversial 3-3-5 struggled all’g the most yds and pts in UM hist incl 39 ppg in B10 play (7 of 8 scored 34+). NT Martin is the top D player but he’s routinely doubled. He suffered a sprained ankle vs Iowa and wasn’t 100% the rest of the year. LB Mouton led the league in tkls for most of the yr before being edged out by S Kovacs in the finale. By yr’s end UM was starting 2 true Fr, an ex-walk-on and a journeyman Sr in the secondary which finished #95 pass eff D (260, 63%, 18-11). K’s Gibbons and Broekhuizen comb to hit just 4-13 FG (L/37). P Hagerup avg’d an impressive 43.6 as a true and will return after being susp’d vs OSU. Top returnman Gallon avg’d just 4.3 on PR and 21.8 on KR. The Wolves allow 9.8 on PR’s and 21.4 on KR’s. Questions on Rich Rod’s future could be a distraction.

MSU surprised some folks TY with a strong squad playing in the brutal SEC West with an 8-4 record which was quite an accomplishment. Along the way HC Mullen defeated his mentor Meyer in the Swamp and came close vs BCS-bound Ark losing in 2OT. Their #53 offense is a cookie-cutter of Meyer’s UF off with a strong run gm led by mobile QB Relf. Passing QB Russell split time with Relf early in the yr, but after the 2 comb for 5 int vs LSU, the pass gm was scaled back and Relf took most of the snaps the rest of the yr. Top RB Ballard took over as the st’r in gm 3 and was very productive finishing #3 in the SEC in scoring (9.3 ppg). Big play WR Berry was lost to inj in gm 6 but could return here. The OL has been solid in run blocking as MSU is #2 in the SEC in rush ypg (216, 4.6), but all’d 22 sks (9.0%). The OL starters avg 6’3” 303 with 2 Sr st’rs led by LT Sherrod who is projected as one of the top OT’s for the ‘11 draft. MSU is #16 in our def rankings. The whole team was rocked by tragedy when starting DE Nick Bell (3 sts) was diagnosed with a brain tumor and eventually died during the tm’s bye wk (Nov 6th). MSU all’d 122 rush ypg (3.6) with 26 sks and the tm’s sk leader was LB White (6). White was highly productive finishing #4 in the SEC in tkls and tfl. MSU is #29 in our pass D rankings all’g 236 ypg (57%) with a 17-12 ratio. MSU has faced 2 QB’s similar to Robinson TY (Newton and Masoli) and held Aub to a ssn low 17 pts (Newton 70 rush yd, 136 pass) and Masoli (12 rush, 261 pass). Rumors of Mullen being a candidate for multiple jobs could be a distraction.
These two teams have provided us with three Bowl or Game of the Year Winners! Michigan’s offense obviously runs thru Robinson and despite the extra practice, we don’t expect much improvement from the D. The Bulldogs are potent enough on offense for us to anticipate a high scoring gm.

1★ TCU

TCU trailed Boise most of the yr in the AP polls, but jumped them in the BCS standings after a 47-7 blowout of then-undefeated Utah. TCU breathed a sigh of relief with Nevada’s upset of the Broncos which assured them of becoming the 1st non-AQ to make consecutive BCS bowls and the 1st to play in the Rose Bowl. TCU easily sold its allotment of 20,000 tix while UW has a 35,000 allotment and outnumbered P10 fans in their 3 recent trips to Pasadena. Patterson is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in bowls losing LY’s Fiesta Bowl to Boise,17-10 (-7). The final BCS standings officially gave UW the B10’s nod as they were co-champs with MSU and OSU all tied at 11-1 (7-1 in B10 play). This is the Badgers 7th trip to Pasadena (1st S/’99) where they are 3-3 SU winning their L/3 (2-1 ATS). Under Bielema UW is 2-2 SU/ATS in bowls with this being their 1st BCS bid. They both faced UNLV in LV as the Frogs (-34’) won 48-6 on 10/30 (30-12 FD and 530-197 yd edges). UW (-20) beat the Rebels 41-21 in the opener (23-10 FD and 475-217 yd edges). TCU was fav’d in every gm TY but this is only the 2nd gm (Utah -5) where the line has been under 13. UW was 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog TY with their 2 biggest wins of the yr B2B vs OSU and at Iowa.
TCU flat out dominated opp’s TY outscoring them 43-11 behind their vaunted D. The closest game for the Frogs was a 5 pt win over underrated SDSt. TCU fell behind 14-0 (its biggest deficit TY) but scored 37 unanswered before all’g SDSt to battle back. The #10 offense has had some slow starts TY as the Frogs had leads of just 14 or less at halftime 5x’s incl 3 gms of single-digit leads. Sr QB Dalton (1st Tm MWC) does not hesitate to make plays with his feet (407 rush) and is #5 NCAA pass eff. RB Wesley is the first Frog over 1,000 yds rushing S/’03. For the first time S/’03-’04, TCU has 2 rec’s with more than 500 yds in B2B seasons. The OL avg 6’4” 317 with 4 Sr st’rs. Led by two 1st Tm MWC’ers (incl Rimington winner Kirkpatrick), they pave the way for 261 ypg (5.5) while giving up 9 sks (2.9%). TCU placed 8 defenders on the first two All-MWC teams. They lead the NCAA in many categories and our #3 D. The DL (6’2” 281), with 3 Sr starters, has totaled 17.5 of the tm’s 25 sks. LB Brock leads TCU in tkls. The Frogs rank #2 in our pass eff D led by 1st Tm MWC Johnson and had 3 IR TD’s TY. The ST’s unit (#9) is led by Kerley who avg an outstanding 12.9 on PR and 28.0 on KR. P Kelton has landed 15 In20 and the PR D is giving up 7.2 (KR D 20.5).

Johnny Unitas QB Awd Winner Tolzien (#5 NCAA pass eff) leads the NCAA in comp % which is also a new B10 record. UW is the only team in B10 history to avg 40+ in conf play and have 3 RB who have at least 13 rush TD. HC Bielema immediately saw the power/speed potential in B10’s ‘09 OPY Clay and true Fr White. Clay became the 1st back in 29 gms to have 100 yds vs Ohio St but suffered a knee inj missing the L/3. #3 TB Ball scored the GW TD vs Iowa and ran for 645 yd and 13 TD in the L/4. The WR corps struggled with inj’s as their top 2 (Toon and Gilreath) missed 4 and 2. Mackey finalist TE Kendricks led the squad in rec. The true stars are the OL (6’5” 321, 3 Sr) led by B10 OL of the Yr/Outland winner LT Carimi. UW ran for less than 150 yds just once (142 vs Iowa) and they all’d just 12 sks (4.7%). UW (#12 off) also had the NCAA’s fewest pens per gm and was tied for the NCAA lead with just 9 TO’s lost. All-B10 DE Watt leads the DL (avg 6’4” 279) with big plays in big gms. Wisky (#37 D) suffered a huge loss when LY’s B10 Fr of the Yr LB Borland was KO’d (shoulder) and Taylor led the unit in tfl. The secondary (#32 pass eff D all’g 192, 56%, 19-14) cut down on big plays. ST’s (#68) have been the source of big plays TY for both the Badgers and their opponents. After allowing KR’s of 97 and 95 yds vs Arizona St, the Badgers blk’d the gm tying xp in a 1 pt win. A 74 yd PR TD keyed MSU’s win but perhaps the biggest play of the season was Gilreath’s 97 yd KR TD on the opening KO vs OSU.

There have been times when non-AQ teams have reached a BCS bowl without being truly deserving but this is not one of them as this Horned Frogs unit has both an excellent offense and defense. They’ll look forward to the challenge of their 2nd straight BCS game. Wisky comes in as B10 Champs and is now an underdog to a MWC team in the Rose Bowl. They’ll play the disrespect card and it will be a great matchup with their big physical OL and trio of solid RB’s vs the TCU front 7.

3★ OKLAHOMA

These programs come in from opposite ends of the spectrum for their 1st ever meeting as this is UC’s 1st ever BCS Bowl while it is OU’s 8th. The Huskies come in as the biggest dog of the BCS gms at +17’. Conn won a share of the BE Title and UC HC Edsall is 3-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl LY’s upset of SC as 3’ pt dogs. OU won their 7th B12 Title but has lost their L/5 BCS gms SU/ATS incl being upset in B2B yrs (‘06-’07) in the Fiesta Bowl where they are 1-3 SU/ATS. Stoops is 5-6 SU/3-8 ATS in bowls. The tms both faced Cincy TY with the Huskies (-2’) winning 38-17 at home on Nov 27th despite being outgained 399-357 while OU (-14) edged the Bearcats 31-29 despite being outgained 461-452. UC was 2-4 SU/ATS on the road TY but finished the ssn with 2 str outright upsets as an AD. OU had struggled on the road until winning their L/3 outside of Norman for the conf crown. Both are young with UC having only 5 Sr starters while OU has just 4.

The Huskies began the ssn with high hopes coming off their upset of SC in LY’s bowl. Prospects looked bleak after they began the ssn 3-4 with losses to Temple and Rutgers that had some calling for Edsall to be ousted. UC went on to upset BE leaders WV, Pitt and Syr in 3 str gms to gain control of the BE and took care of business vs Cincy and USF to tie WV and Pitt for the BE Title and grab the BCS bid. QB Frazer began the ssn as the starter (1st 4) but was benched for Endres (2 sts). Endres was then dismissed and instead of going back to Frazer, Edsall started Box vs L’ville (4-12, 35 yds) but he left the gm with inj and the job went back to Frazer. No doubt the strength of the offense is 5’9” 193 RB Todman who is #2 in the FBS in rush ypg (143). The receivers were shortchanged due to the inconsistencies at QB with UC finishing last in the BE in pass ypg (145). The OL avg 6’5” 305 with 2 Sr st’rs. UC is tied for 14th in the FBS (1st BE) in sks all’d (12, 3.8%) and don’t have the benefit of a mobile QB. UC is #2 in the BE in rush ypg (180, 4.7) but 5th in ttl off due to the poor passing. Overall UC has our #67 off and #51 def. The DL avg 6’3” 268 with 0 Sr st’rs. UC has all’d 147 rush ypg (3.9) and the def has posted 27 sks. UC boasts some of the best LB’s in the BE led by 2x 1st Tm BE MLB Wilson who leads the BE in tkls. UC is #33 in our pass D rankings all’g 206 ypg (58%) with a 13-19 ratio and leads the BE in int (19). UC is #44 in our ST rankings with a poor net punt avg of 34.8 (2nd last BE) but lead the BE in KR avg (26.5) with 2 TD.

After an “off” 8-5 ssn, the Sooners proved that they are the B12’s most powerful program by winning their L/4 to wind up in Glendale on NY’s Day. OU lost OC Wilson after the championship gm but veteran staffers QB cch Heupel/WR cch Norvell should be effective replacements. QB Jones despite some road struggles vs MO and A&M, rebounded to pilot our #9 off. The workhorse is AA RB Murray who led FBS RB’s in rec’s in addition to rushing for 1,121 yds. Biletnikoff finalist and AA WR Broyles finished #2 FBS in rec despite a nagging ankle inj. The OL (6’5” 297) all’d 21 sks (3.6%) but did struggle in short yd situations. The Sooners D had its own struggles replacing AA DT McCoy as the top interior lineman and Taylor was never 100% after LY’s gruesome leg inj before he was KO’d for the ssn vs TT. B12’s DL of the Yr DE Beal is #2 all-time in school history in sks. The LB’s suffered a blow when projected MLB Box missed the 1st 4 due to a back inj (burned by mobile QB’s early on). OU’s 152 rush ypg (4.3) all’d was the most in the Stoops era. OU ranked #8 in pass eff D (212, 55%, 15-17) led by All-B12 S Carter. The ST are #38 with P Way’s 40.5 net finishing #5 NCAA. The K’s continue to be a concern although Stevens hit 10 of his L/11 after winning the job back for the L/4. Broyles’ ankle inj limited his effectiveness on PR but Madu provided a spark on KR. The Sooners all’d 3.2 on PR and 20.5 on KR with 3 TD.

There’s a reason this is the biggest line of all the bowls and if you look to the left at the checklist it pretty much explains why. The only question in this gm is the motivation of the Sooners and with the recent bowl disappointments you can be assured Stoops will have his team ready. UC has been one of the most fortunate teams in football as they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conf gms yet came away with the championship. It’s not hard to favor a team when they have a superior offense, superior D, better ST’s and are hungry for a BCS Bowl win.