NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS
The Wildcats did lose their starting QB for the last 2 games of the season and will be without him
here. Still can’t side with a Raiders unit that didn’t beat a BCS team by over 7 points this season.
NO PLAY: TEXAS TECH 37 NORTHWESTERN 26
The Gators are forecsted with a 356-296 yd edge but we’re not going to jump on board too quick. They
lost their last 2 games vs BCS teams by a combined 77-21 and are now dealing with coaching issues.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA 30 PENN STATE 17
Bama has the clear edges and is forecasted to fi nish with a 426-314 yd edge, has the better
special teams and should win the turnover battle. The Tide still have a 10 win season as a goal.
4* ALABAMA 30 MICHIGAN ST 16
While PP forecasts the score right at the number, it calls for Michigan to fi nish with a slight 430-415 yd
edge. Michigan happy to be back bowling after a 2 yr hiatus while Miss St is in only 2nd bowl in 10Y.
NO PLAY: MISSISSIPPI ST 29 MICHIGAN 24
The Big10 champ is an underdog to an AQ team and PP thinks they should be. TCU is forecasted
with a 419-338 yd edge and has a sizeable ST’s edge as well. UW did however go 2-0 SU as a dog TY.
3* TCU 34 WISCONSIN 28
If you look at this year’s stats UConn was outgained in Big East play by 86 ypg while OU played in
the much tougher B12 and outgained conf foes by 159 ypg. OU with a forecasted 519-243 edge.
2* OKLAHOMA 38 CONNECTICUT 20
POINTWISE
TEXAS TECH 40 - Northwestern 24 RATING: 5
What? The Raiders of Texas Tech rank 8th in the country in passing offense?
Normally that would represent an enviable accomplishment, but not when you
are discussing the Raiders. Afterall, from '02 thru '09, Tech ranked #1, #1, #1,
#1, #3, #1, #1, & #3 in passing "O". And, as we remind you every year, they've
passed the mantle down from Kingsbury, to Symons, to Crumbie, to Hodges, to
Graham, & now to Potts. An unbroken string of quality tossers, to be sure. But,
whereas the Raiders finished with the 6th, 4th, 8th, 4th, 13th, 7th, 3rd, & 8th
ranked team in scoring offense, this year they check in at a dismal 34th, topping
35 pts vs just 3 lined teams. Potts has thrown for 3,357 yds, 66%, & 31/9 (462
yds, 4 TDs vs Baylor), and that Tech running game is a full 57 ypg better than LY,
when it took MichiganSt, 41-31, in the Alamo (1st bowl cover since '04). The
Raiders floundered TY vs the likes of Texas, OklahomaSt, & Oklahoma, but just
may flourish here. The Wildcats of Northwestern play in their 3rd straight bowl,
taking both Missouri & Auburn to the wall, before tight losses (6 & 5 pt covers).
The 'Cats climbed to the #25 spot in the land, after opening at 5-0, but that was
it, a 7-5 log, with 1 win vs non-entity IllinoisSt, & 5 vs squads with a combined
record of 17-43. Their shining moment came in a comeback win over then 13thranked
Iowa, with QB Persa throwing for 2 TDs in the final 6:21. But he ruptured
his Achilles following that play, & that was it for NW, a he was simply invaluable:
2,571 PYs, 76%, 15/4, with 519 RYs (9 TDS), & 10th rated QB in the nation.
Northwestern then wound up its season with 48-27 & 70-23 losses. Double digit
bowl spot are always daunting, but 'Cats simply can't match Raider "O" potency.
PENN STATE 27 - Florida 24 RATING: 4
Another bowl, another match between the Nittany Lions of Penn State, & the
Gators of Florida. For those with short memories, surely the '62 Gator Bowl, &
the '97 Citrus pop to mind. Yes, that's it as far as any previous series history is
concerned. By the way, the Gators prevailed by 17-7 & 21-6 respectively, in
those meetings, holding 23-9 FD & 397-139 yd edges in the latter. This has
been a down season for both squads, especially for the Gators, who posted
brilliant 13-1 records in 3 of the last 4 years, while capturing 2 BCS National
Titles. The past 3 years, Florida finished 3rd, 4th, & 10th in scoring offense, but
check in at #48 this time around, & whereas their scoring "D" ranked 4th & 4th in
'08 & '09, comes in at #31 this year. It's 5 losses are its most since '04, the year
before the arrival of Urban Meyer. Losing the likes of Tim Tebow, & to an extent,
Cam Newton, have proven too much. So much so, that this will be his last game
with the Gators, with this retirement seemingly permanent. Note that Florida lost
3 games by at least 20 pts. QB Brantley blows hot-&-cold (just 9/9), & that
fabled overhead game ranks an unfathomable 85th this season. Similarly, the
Nits have come from a pair of 11-2 campaigns, to a struggling log of 7-5. They
averaged only 13 ppg in their first 5 lined affairs, losing 3 of those 5. But they've
certainly improved since, behind former walk-on QB McGloin, who's led Nits to
4-2 windup, while averaging 31 ppg. Overland, RB Royster is still their horse,
but is 214 yds below his '09 mark. And like the Gators, the Nits have lost 4
games by at least 20 pts. This marks Paterno's 37th bowl, with a 24-11-1 SU
record (unmatched marks). We'll take the TD spot, despite bowl series history.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 41 - Michigan 34 RATING: 6
Can they control him? That, of course, is the conundrum facing the Bulldogs of
Mississippi State, in respect to the do-everything quarterback of the Michigan
Wolverines, namely one Denard Robinson. Leading the Wolverines to their first
bowl under Rich Rodriguez, he has become the 1st QB in NCAA history to rush
(1,643 yds, 6.7 ypr, 14 TDs), & pass (2,316 yds, 9.3 ypp, 16/10) for more than
1,500 yds each in a season. His signal game came in a 28-24 heartstopping win
at NoDame, in which he ran for 258 yds & threw for 244. As astonishing a stat
as ever produced. And that on the heels of opening game rout of a respectable
UConn squad, in which he ran for 197 & passed for 186. To say that he brings
to mind the electrifying Pat White, would be an understatement. White, as you
recall, was Rodriguez' brilliant QB at WestVa, who led the Mounties to 4 bowl
wins. Robinson wore down a bit, as the year progressed, with various injuries,
but will be ready here. And he had better be, as the Wolves' "D" has been a joke
all season, winding up as the 108th rated stop unit, while allowing at least 34 pts
in 7 of their last 8 games. The 'Dogs return to the bowl scene for only the 2nd
time since '00 ('07 Liberty), after earning holiday slots in 6-of-10 years ('91-'00)
under Jackie Sherrill. However, a 29-72 log from '00-'08, resulted in the hiring of
Dan Mullen from Florida. His spread offense has revitalized the 'Dogs, who rank
16th & 19th in rushing "O" & "D". They've had their downticks in losses to LSU
(5 TOs), & Alabama, but stayed with both Auburn (3 pts) & Arkansas (OT) in
their only other 2 slips. No team topped 190 RYs vs MissSt. The fav was 8-2
ATS in 'Dog games in '10, while the Wolves enter this on an 8-game ATS slide.
ALABAMA 33 - Michigan State 17 RATING: 5
As our readers are familiar with, each year's opening issue includes a column
named "The Polls", which is a compilation off all pre-season college football "Top
25" ratings. Well, this year, the Crimson Tide of Alabama were a near unanimous
choice to repeat as national champs, with 9-of-10 first plays votes. The Spartans
of Michigan State? Nary a vote in any top 25 listing, which is a bit puzzling,
seeing that MSt has gone bowling the previous 3 years, including a spot in this
same bowl in '08. But here they are. Despite losing 9 starters from last year's
"D", which finished at #2 in total, scoring, & rushing, this year's Tide stop unit,
ranks a highly respectable 6th, 4th, & 22nd in those columns. Only 4 teams
managed to top 13 pts vs 'Bama, but 3 of those represented losses (1 more than
combined 26-2 '08 & '09 log), including their finale, which saw the 'Tide leading
24-0, but losing 28-27. That marked the 1st time that a 'Bama gridiron team had
ever blown a 24-pt lead. LY's Heisman winner, Ingram ranks just 48th in rushing
TY (816 yds, 11 TDs). QB McElroy a solid 2,767 yds, 71%, 19/5. The Spartans
tied for the Big10 title, but missed out on a BCS slot. MSt's head coach Dontanio
served under Saban at MichSt from '95 thru '99, so a bit of a side bar. Spartans
are led by QB Cousins: 68%, 20/9, along with the RB tandem of Backer & Bell
(1,779 yds, 21 TDs). MSt has reached 30 pts in 9 games, but note just 109
RYpg in their final 6 contests, while losing their last dog role by a 37-6 score (3
Cousin INTs). And Spartans have dropped 4 straight bowls. Can't dismiss Tide's
complete collapse in embarrassing '09 Sugar Bowl (31-17 loss to Utah: 23½ pt
ATS loss), after losing the SEC title game. Should protect from a similar letdown.
TCU 37 - Wisconsin 31 RATING: 6
On the outside looking in. That seems to be the continuing theme, concerning
the Horned Frogs of TCU, who've completed their 2nd consecutive 12-0 regular
season, while climbing to the 3rd spot in the land. Of course, they have a bit of
a beef, in not competing for the national title, but not many fans would argue with
the eventual entrants in the BCS title game. However, a Rose Bowl placement
is a nice consolation prize for the Frogs, as they become the first team from a
non-AQ league in the BCS era to play in this awesome setting. Led by 4th-year
starting QB, Dalton (2,683 yds, 66%, 26/6), the Frogs finished 4th, 8th, & 9th, in
scoring, rushing, & total offense, whose balance is displayed in the fact that Tcu
topped 200 RYs & 200 PYs five times in the same game. Defensively, the Frogs
rank 1st, 1st, 1st, 4th in scoring, total, passing, & rushing. They do it all. Check
45-10, 31-3, 38-7, & 47-7 wins over bowlbound Baylor, BYU, AirForce, & Utah
(then 6th-ranked in the land). The Badgers of Wisconsin return to Pasadena for
the 1st time since '99. But it has hardly been a barren interim, as this marks
Wisky's 9th straight bowl year, & 14th in the last 15 years. The Badgers also do
it both overhead & overland, as QB Tolzien leads the nation in passing accuracy
(75%), with 2,300 yds & 16/6. And he is complemented by the most prolific
overland triumvirate in the land, in Clay, White, & Ball (2,829 yds & 44 TDs). Try
67 ppg in the Badgers' final three contests, to wind up, not only an 11-1 season,
but a 6-game spread run. By the way, Wisky covered those last 3 by 81½ pts.
Badger head coach, Bielema, is 2-2 SU & ATS in bowls, while Frogs' Patterson
is 5-3 SU & ATS. How do you buck either team? Slightest of nods to the Frogs.
OKLAHOMA 44 - Connecticut 20 RATING: 5
Twelve years at the helm, with twelve bowl games as a reward. Such are the
fortunes of the Sooners of Oklahoma, since the hiring of Bob Stoops back in
'99. And that included a national championship in just his 2nd year, by taking
the measure of mighty FloridaSt, 13-2, in the '00 Orange. Since then, Okie
bowl games have been a crap shoot. As a matter of fact, in those 11 previous
holiday contests, the Sooners have just a 5-6 SU record, along with a spread
log of only 3-8, & the dog covering 7-of-11. And taking it a bit further, OU owns
a lacking 1-6 ATS record as a bowl chalk in their current run, with everyone
aware of their 43-42 epic OT loss to Boise in the '06 Fiesta. This year, they've
lost only twice, at bowl bound Mizzou & TexA&M, despite the fact that Stoops'
normally rock-ribbed "D" has fallen from #8 & #7 in total & scoring in '09, to
57th & 33rd respectively in '10. But recovering from a 17-0 deficit to Nebraska
in the Big12 title game speaks volumes. QB Jones is the trigger (4,289 PYs,
65%, 35/11), with RB Murray always a home run threat. And speaking of RBs,
the Huskies of Connecticut own the #2 rusher in the land, in Jordan Todman,
who averaged 27.5 carries per game, while gaining 1,574 yds (14 TDs), with 9
games above 100 RYs. Overhead, it is a different story, as UConn ranks just
102nd in airing it out, being held to 153 PYs or less on 7 occasions. Huskies
got here, thanks to a 5-0 windup (SU & ATS), 4 vs bowl squads. However, it
must be noted that 3 of their 4 losses came by 20, 14, & 26 pts (-17, -23½, &
-23½ pts ATS). As a matter of fact, the SU winner posted a perfect 11-0 ATS
log in Uconn tilts, and the Sooners scored 43 or more pts 6 times this season.
PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA 44 - Connecticut 20 RATING: 5
NELLY
Texas Tech (-7) Northwestern (47½)
It is hard to respect Northwestern too much as the Wildcats managed to go
just 7-5 after a 5-0 start. Northwestern’s upset over 7-5 Iowa was the only
win of the season against a winning team and without starting QB Dan Persa
the offense has not had much success. Statistically Northwestern has been
out-gained and out-scored and they have a negative turnover margin. This is
a team that is always a dangerous underdog however and while Coach
Fitzgerald is 0-2 in bowl games, both games went to overtime with
Northwestern as heavy underdogs. Last year in the Outback Bowl
Northwestern took Auburn to overtime and the Tigers have turned around to
have a pretty strong team this year. Texas Tech was also a lousy team
statistically as the defense was terrible, allowing 463 yards per game and
while the offense put up big numbers it was a step back for the program.
Coach Tuberville has been mentioned as a candidate for a few other
positions after just one year in Lubbock so there may be some distractions
and the Red Raiders appear overvalued. TEXAS TECH BY 3
RATING 2: NORTHWESTERN (+7) over Texas Tech
Florida (-7) Penn State (48)
The coaches will dominate the headlines in this match-up as Joe Paterno
incredibly coaches bowl game number 37 while Urban Meyer says he will be
coaching his last. It was a very disappointing season for Florida at 7-5
including a few uncharacteristic blowout losses. The Gators still had very
good defensive numbers but the offense really struggled at times, averaging
just 29 points per game. Penn State also finished 7-5 but there were some
encouraging performances, albeit through great inconsistency. Penn State
looked like a top defensive team early in the year after holding its own
against Alabama and Iowa but in eight Big Ten games the Lions allowed at
least 21 points each week. The SEC gets a lot of respect for its record versus
the Big Ten but Penn State has won outright as underdogs in its last two
bowl games against SEC teams. Value may be on Penn State in this matchup
given the surge in interest to back Florida after Coach Meyer’s resignation
but in a favorable venue with a big edge on defense the Gators should have
several edges in this game. The Gators are still on a great ATS run as
favorites over the last few years and while the Penn State bowl numbers
must be respected this looks like a mismatch if Florida has full motivation.
Expect the Gators to pull away after a close first half. FLORIDA BY 14
RATING 2: FLORIDA (-7) over Penn State
Alabama (-10) Michigan State (59½)
Michigan State is not getting a great deal of respect despite tying for the Big
Ten title and losing just one game all season. The Spartans missed out on a
BCS bowl spot but they get the opportunity for a marquee win, facing last
year’s national champions. Alabama lost three games this season including
the stunning comeback defeat to close the season against Auburn. The Tide
has dominant numbers on both sides of the ball but motivating this team for a
lesser bowl game may be an issue. Nick Saban used to coach at Michigan
State and Spartans coach Mark Dantonio was an assistant on that staff so
there is a history between the coaches. While Michigan State was dealt a
favorable conference schedule the Spartans beat six teams that are in bowl
games and the numbers across the board are strong with a balanced offense
and a very solid defense. Michigan State has lost its bowl game in all three
years since Dantonio took over but they have been competitive underdogs in
all three games. The last time Alabama was in a letdown bowl situation they
were blown out by Utah as heavy favorites and the motivation edge should
be with the underdog, out to prove they belonged in the BCS. MSU BY 3
RATING 4: MICHIGAN STATE (+11) over Alabama
Mississippi State (-5) Michigan (58½)
The Mississippi State program has taken a quick rise under Coach Dan
Mullen in two years and as a result he has been mentioned as a possible
candidate for several jobs, adding some distraction to the bowl preparation.
The Bulldogs have won outright as underdogs in the last three bowl games
but this will be a different situation as the favorite. Mississippi State went 8-4
and through an SEC schedule that is impressive but the non-conference
schedule was very weak and the Bulldogs actually only beat one team that
enters the postseason with a winning record, 7-5 Florida. The defense ended
the year with good numbers but in the last three games Mississippi State
allowed 91 points. Michigan stumbled after a 5-0 start and blowout losses to
Wisconsin and Ohio State to close the season show the ground that the
program needs to make up in the Big Ten. Denard Robinson should be fully
healthy and Michigan’s offense averaged over 500 yards per game this
season but Michigan’s defense really struggled against the pass. Mississippi
State was an inconsistent offensive team and they run a spread option attack
that Michigan will be used to seeing but the clouds over the Wolverines
coaching staff can’t help here. Michigan will be a popular underdog in this
game but the results don’t add up to success. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7
RATING 1: MISSISSIPPI STATE (-5) over Michigan
Tcu (-2½) Wisconsin (58½)
The Horned Frogs did not get the pieces to fall together for a spot in the
national championship game but the Rose Bowl is not a bad consolation.
TCU has failed to cover the last two years as bowl favorites and this will be a
difficult match-up with Wisconsin. TCU has far better statistics on both sides
of the ball including the best defensive numbers in the nation. The schedule
has not been difficult but Wisconsin’s schedule has not been that much more
difficult. The Badgers did not have to play Illinois or Penn State in the
conference season and the non-conference schedule featured a FCS team
and a three losing FBS teams. Wisconsin’s one loss came to 11-1 Michigan
State on the road and the Badgers closed the season on a roll with seven
straight wins, many by impressive blowouts. These teams actually scored
exactly the same amount of points on the season, averaging just over 43
points per game. Wisconsin allowed nearly twice as many points as TCU did
this year. Wisconsin has had mixed results under Coach Bielema in bowl
games splitting the last four years but this may be a better situation for TCU
out to prove itself against on major conference foe. Wisconsin may end up
favored in this game so waiting for value may be worth it. TCU BY 3
RATING 1: TCU (-2½) over Wisconsin
Oklahoma (-17) Connecticut (55)
The Sooners closed the season as one of the hottest teams in the nation with
four straight wins over bowl teams. Oklahoma got to the Big XII
championship by virtue of a tiebreaker and the Sooners will play in a BCS
bowl for the fourth time in five years. Oklahoma is just 3-9 ATS in the last
twelve bowl games and the Sooners have a history of playing poorly in these
games but they will be the biggest favorites of the bowl season. Connecticut
has four losses including a few ugly ones but the Huskies put together five
straight wins in the Big East to take the conference through tiebreakers.
Statistically Connecticut has been out-gained by about 28 yards per game on
average but the Huskies have a good running game and a solid defense.
Special teams play has been a strong point and Connecticut also has one of
the top turnover margins in the nation. Connecticut has won outright in four
straight games as underdogs and the numbers over the years are impressive
for the Huskies when getting points. Coach Edsall has been a candidate for
other positions so there could be distractions and a great turnout from
Connecticut fans is unlikely but Oklahoma is hard to trust. OU BY 14
RATING 1: CONNECTICUT (+17) over Oklahoma
THE GOLD SHEET
TECH 30 - Northwestern 26—Because successful handicapping
requires the digestion of so much information and statistics, there can be a
tendency to get bogged down in the minutiae of a matchup while failing to give
proper weight to the more obvious and pertinent aspects of an upcoming clash.
Northwestern, for instance, is 1-8 vs. the spread over its last nine games, and the
Wildcats won’t have indispensable injured starting QB Dan Persa when they
travel to hostile Dallas to take on Texas Tech in the Red Raiders’ home state.
‘Nuff said, case closed?
Maybe. But dismiss resourceful Northwestern at your own risk. Sure, the
Wildcats are 0-7 straight up in bowl games since 1995. And they’ll be hardpressed
to get a victory in this one. However, Northwestern doesn’t have to win
outright, it just needs to hang inside a very generous pointspread (9½ points at
TGS press time). And smart young head coach Pat Fitzgerald has found a way
to do exactly that in bowl games each of the previous two seasons, stretching
SEC rep Auburn & Big XII rep Missouri to overtime before bowing. More
important, the extra practices leading up to this clash will benefit Northwestern
as much as any bowl team in the nation, giving the Wildcat coaching staff time
to get talented new QB Evan Watkins up to speed after the 6-6 strong-armed
redshirt frosh struggled during a couple of nervous starts at the end of the
regular season for the injured Persa. Plus, the fiery Fitzgerald, a former star LB
for NU, figures to have his defense flying to the ball in the wake of the 70 points
the embarrassed Wildcats allowed at Wisconsin to close the regular campaign.
Perhaps more to the point than any argument in favor of Northwestern is the
fact that we simply don’t fully trust Texas Tech’s KO power. The Red Raiders are
not the offensive juggernaut that they were under former head coach Mike
Leach, notching just three double-digit victories (at woeful New Mexico and at home
over Weber State & Houston) in Tommy Tuberville’s first season at the helm. If
Watkins is accurate enough to exploit some of the frequent holes in Tech’s pass
coverage (the Raiders have allowed a whopping 3673 yards through the air—
most in the nation), Northwestern has a good chance to go the distance.
FLORIDA 26 - Penn State 24—This game has several story lines revolving
around the coaching staffs. Florida’s Urban Meyer will be coaching his last game,
as he announced his retirement a few weeks ago. Will Muschamp, recently Texas’
defensive coordinator, will take over after this game. The Gators will also lose
offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, who will become the head coach at Temple.
Rumors are rife at Penn State that this will be Joe Paterno’s last game as well,
as sources inside the Penn State athletic department reportedly are lending
credence to the story. Although Paterno and Penn State president Bill Mahon
denied the rumors, Paterno has arranged for all of his extended family (including
most of his 17 grandchildren) to attend the game. Word is his age and related health
problems might have caught up with the iconic coach, who just turned 84. Further
fueling this story is the fact that some of Paterno’s assistants have been actively
pursuing other coaching positions. It would be in character for Paterno to keep such
a huge decision between he and his players, in order not to draw attention to himself.
Regardless, value lies with the Nittany Lions. Underdogs of seven points or
more in bowl games have been a strong percentage play (65% over the past 36
years), and Penn State has the ingredients to add to that edge. Nittany Lion RB
Evan Royster is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 3834 yards, and he’s
scored 29 touchdowns. QB Matt McGloin has done a solid job since taking over
for true frosh Robert Bolden at midseason. McGloin has completed 58% for
1337 yds., and has thrown 13 TD passes while tossing just 4 interceptions.
McGloin has developed a rapport with 6-5 WR Derek Moye, who’s caught 6 of
his 7 TD passes since McGloin took over.
Florida is in a state of flux with Meyer’s departure, as several recruits have
decommitted. After an impressive 4-0 start to the season, the Gators wobbled
to a 3-5 mark in their last 8 games, with two of those wins against Vanderbilt and
Appalachian State and the third in OT against Georgia. The Florida attack
behind QB John Brantley wasn’t nearly as effective as recent editions under Tim
Tebow. Brantley completed 61%, but threw only 9 TD passes plus 9
interceptions. Brantley became less efficient down the stretch, with 8 ints. & just
3 TD passes in the final 8 games. The 2010 Florida attack produced the fewest
passing scores in more than a decade in Gainesville. RB Jeff Demps leads the
Gator rushing game with 531 yds. (6.0 ypc). The explosive Demps was bothered
by injury in the second half of the season, missing 3 of Florida’s last 7 games
entirely and most of a 4th. Only once in the last 11 years has the Gator defense
allowed more points against TGS-rated teams than this season’s 22 ppg.
Emotions for coaches aside, this has been a down season for Florida, which
heads into this game with just one quality win since September. Penn State
owns the same record as Florida, facing a similar strength of schedule, and the
Nittany Lions currently have the more productive and efficient QB. A full
touchdown is too many points to give, especially if Paterno is indeed coaching
in his final game in front of his entire family.
Alabama 26 - Michigan State 24—Alabama was touted as nearly
unbeatable after going 14-0 and winning the BCS Championship last season.
With returning Heisman Trophy winning RB Mark Ingram along with star QB
Greg McElroy and top WR Julio Jones plus numerous other starters, a repeat
championship was predicted by many. However, it turned out the Tide didn’t fill
in its 2ndary as well as HC Nick Saban would’ve liked, and rushing production
fell by 42 ypg as graduation losses on the OL took a toll. Saban coached MSU
from 1995-99 and took the Spartans to four straight bowl appearances.
Michigan State, conversely, won a school-record 11 games, a share of its first
Big Ten championship in 20 years, and had HC Mark Dantonio named National
Coach of the Year by CBSSports.com. Jr. QB Kirk Cousins completed 67.5%
for 2705 yards & 20 TDs. The RB tandem of soph Edwin Baker (1187 YR, 6.1
ypc, 13 TDs) & true frosh Le’Veon Bell (592, 5.7, 8) were a potent combination
running behind a surprisingly efficient OL that had been one of the team’s
perceived weaknesses heading into 2010. The Spartans have possibly the best
defensive player in the Big Ten in A-A LB Greg Jones, a tackling machine with
457 stops the last four seasons. His LB partner, 5th-year senior Eric Gordon,
has 324 tackles in 48 career starts.
On paper, Michigan State’s poor pass defense puts it at a disadvantage
facing Bama WR Jones (75 catches; 1084 yards) & QB McElroy (71%, 19 TDs,
just 5 ints.). The Spartan 2ndary yielded 222 ypg passing against TGS-rated
teams, with particularly shoddy efforts against Notre Dame (allowed Dayne
Crist 369 YP & 4 TDP) and at Iowa (Ricky Stanzi completed 11 of 15, 3 for
scores). However, Alabama had trouble when it couldn’t dominate in the pits
this season, rushing for 3.9 ypc and allowing 15 sacks in losses to South
Carolina, LSU & Auburn. Part of the problem MSU had against the pass was an
inability to pressure the QB, as DT Jerel Worthy and DE Tyler Hoover led the
team with only 4 & 3 sacks, respectively. With extra prep time, expect Spartan
d.c. Pat Narduzzi to come up with some schemes to get to McElroy.
Big dogs are a high-percentage play in bowl games, as dogs of 7 points or
more have covered 66% over the past six years. Saban is a great coach, but
Mark Dantonio worked under Saban and knows many of his schemes.
Dantonio is no slouch as a coach, as his calls on special teams resulted in some
of the biggest plays of the Spartans’ season, most notably the game-winning
fake FG/TD pass to win the ND game in OT. MSU was good enough to pin
Wisconsin with its only loss of the season, so they are good enough to match
the Tide blow-for-blow for most of the way
Mississippi State 38 - Michigan 28—In the first-ever meeting between these
schools, the opposing coaches have attracted lots of attention...for different
reasons. While MSU’s second-year mentor Dan Mullen (the Urban Meyer
disciple will reportedly receive a 4-year extension) was considered for some of
TY’s top openings, speculation remains that UM’s embattled fourth-year coach
Rich Rodriquez (only 1-10 vs. ranked teams; bothersome compliance
violations) might soon be dismissed, with new athletic director Dave Brandon
stating he will evaluate the HC after the season. We’ve heard that one before.
Like LY (but then with a different QB), the Wolverines got off to a rousing start
(4-0 LY, 5-0 TY). In 2010, it was record-setting soph QB Denard “Shoelaces”
Robinson (native Floridian is first QB in NCAA history to rush & pass for more
than 1,500 yds. each in the same season!), who improved his aerial skills (62%)
to complement his jaw-dropping running ability (6.7 ypc; 4.3 speed) in directing
“Rich Rod’s” spread-option attack (34 ppg). But the Wolverines went only 2-5
the rest of the way (0-7 vs. number), as the overworked Robinson was hobbled
by a variety of injuries (shoulder, knee, fingers), though he reportedly is back to
100% for the bowl. His favorite WR, Ray Roundtree, has had the “dropsies,”
mishandling 4 catchable balls vs. Ohio State. Even so, it’s hard to envision UM
reverting back to its early-season form vs. resurgent, 24th-ranked 8-4 MSU,
whose 4 losses have been vs. elite SEC squads that were a combined 42-7.
Starkville sources report the fast, gang-tackling Bulldog defense (20 ppg) is
strategically-prepared to face Robinson, with shifty frosh Jameon Lewis
simulating him in practice. And certainly, the Bulldog stop unit—led by fierce
LBs Chris White & K.J. Wright (combined 198 tackles, 23 TFL, 9 sacks)—has
done an outstanding job vs. running QBs this season, limiting Auburn’s
Heisman Trophy Winner Cameron Newton to 136 YP & a season-low 70 YR in
the Bulldogs’ 17-14 loss on Sept. 9. The disciplined unit also contained Ole
Miss’ dual-threat QB Jeremiah Masoli in MSU’s 31-23 win to cap the regular
season. The Bulldog defenders face their own mobile spread operation every
day in practice.
On the other hand, Mississippi State’s run-oriented (the Bulldogs rush 69% of
the time) spread offense (27 ppg, 216 ypg rushing, 4.6 ypc), piloted by powerful,
rapidly-developing 6-4, 240 jr. QB Chris Relf (56%, 683 YR) should steamroll the
talent-shy, attrition-thinned 3-3-5 Wolverine defense (34 ppg, 188 ypg rushing),
ranked the worst in school history! The punishing Bulldog infantry attack,
featuring RB Vick Ballard (892 YR, 5.4 ypc, 16 TDs), who motors behind a sturdy
OL (anchored by projected high-round NFL pick LT Derek Sherrrod), should
continue to chew up yards, while the evolving Relf (512 YP last two games!)
burns the young, decimated UM secondary (ranked 111th nationally; starting 2
frosh, 1 soph) with timely passes.
Morever, MSU is far more opportunistic & careful with the pigskin (+8 TO
margin vs. all foes; -9 for Wolves!) and owns a huge edge in the kicking game,
with accurate PK Derek DePasquale (19 of 22 FGs L2Ys). Contrariwise, there
has been an open competition in Ann Arbor after the Wolverines converted a
miserable 4 of 13 TY. The preponderance of edges point to excited, wellrepresented
MSU (quickly sold its 15,000 ticket allotment and begged for more;
UM has returned 5,000), which figures to add to the SEC’s profitable bowl
spread mark (16-9 since ‘07) and extend Rich Rod’s bankroll-depleting record in
Ann Arbor (10-26 vs. the number!) in what might very well be his last hurrah for
the “Maize and Blue.”
Tcu 28 - Wisconsin 20—Unlike most of the earlier postseason matchups, it’s
usually tough to find much fault with the participants in the BCS bowl games.
Such is the case with TCU and Wisconsin. Care to go against the undefeated
Horned Frogs? They ran roughshod over their regular-season slate, dispatching
foes by an average score of 43-11. TCU ranks first in the nation in total defense
(just 215 ypg, 36 fewer than second-place Ohio State) and a not-too-shabby
ninth in total offense (492 ypg). Sr. QB Andy Dalton is four-year starter who has
thrown 49 TDP vs. only 14 ints. in the last two seasons. Explosive soph RB Ed
Wesley has 1065 YR & 11 TDs (on 6.6 ypc) despite missing most of two games
due to injury, plus WRs sr. Jeremy Kerley (12 TDs)—who’s also one of the
country’s best kick/punt returners—and RS frosh Josh Boyce (6 TDs, 18 ypc)
both have the speed to stretch opposition stop units.
So why even hesitate to lay a small, fair price with a team whose résumé is as
impressive the Horned Frogs’? Mostly because that means going against
Wisconsin. All the Badgers have done this season is go 11-1, covering their last
six games. UW scored 201 points (not a misprint) in just the last three, as the
Badgers were able to continue to pound foes on the ground behind their NFL-sized
veteran OL even after an injury sidelined top RB John Clay (expected to be available
vs. TCU). And Wiscy has its own steady senior signal-caller in Scott Tolzein (74%!).
It must be acknowledged that the Horned Frogs’ dominance so far has been
partly due to the competition they faced in the Mountain West, a conference that
contained some of the dregs of the FBS level this season. But we’re not sure the
Badgers can boast a dance card that was that much more difficult, especially a
pre-Big 10 slate that included a trip to UNLV and home games against San Jose
State & Austin Peay, as well as down the stretch when UW was beating up on
the likes of defenseless Indiana & Michigan plus a Northwestern squad missing
its starting QB. Ultimately, we favor TCU because the Frogs have a few more
playmakers on defense, and Dalton seems more likely than Tolzien to make
major strikes through the air. Still, our strongest recommendation in this
matchup is “under,” as the Badgers’ recent offensive exploits have inflated the
total (58½ at TGS press time), and their preferred smashmouth tactics don’t
figure to work so well against a gnarly, swarming TCU stop unit that has
begrudged foes a measly 89 ypg on the ground (No. 3 in the nation).
*Oklahoma 31 - Connecticut 20—Considering the high pointspread on this
game, it’s obviously difficult to make a strong case on fundamentals for such a
big underdog. Big XII champ Oklahoma (11-2), with its pulchritudinous statistics
and impressive comeback from a 17-0 hole vs. Nebraska to win the Big XII title
game, enjoys many advantages over lightly-regarded Big East champ
Connecticut (8-4), making its first appearance in a BCS bowl.
The Sooners, with their high-tech, uptempo, no-huddle, diamond formation
attack, flood the field with offensive talent. OU gains nearly 500 ypg; was fourth
in the nation in passing. QB Landry Jones (65.3%) had 35 TDs vs. 11 ints. and
hit the big passes to hurt Nebraska. Future NFL WR Ryan Broyles led the nation
with 118 receptions. Developing true frosh WR Kenny Stills had 53. Sr. RB
DeMarco Murray had 1121 YR and 69 receptions. FB Millard & TE Ratteree get
their chances in perhaps the most diverse attack in the nation.
Yet the Sooners had their vulnerabilities, being out-rushed for the season,
yielding 4.3 ypc, and ranking a middle-of-the-pack 62nd in rush defense.
Yielding 3 KOR TDs. They had six single-digit wins TY, plus their two losses.
OU has an 0 for 5 slump in BCS bowls, including its infamous 43-42 OT loss to
Boise State on this field four years ago, and a 48-28 spanking by West Virginia,
also in the Fiesta, the next season. Indeed, HC Bob Stoops is just 1-6 as a bowl
favorite. And, overall, big bowl favorites of 14 points or more have covered only
39% going back to the mid-70s.
Many say the Big East no longer merits an automatic BCS bowl berth and that
UConn doesn’t belong. But HC Randy Edsall says his program is past the “up
and coming” stage and contends that the Huskies have proven just that by
rallying from behind to snatch the Big East crown and by earning their third
straight bowl appearance, winning their last two, including a muffling 20-7 victory
over South Carolina LY in the Papajohn’s Bowl. UConn wins the old-fashioned
way, running relentlessly with jr. Jordan Todman (1574 YR), avoiding turnovers,
striking opportunistically (4 int. TDs; 2 KR TDs), and playing solid defense (16th
in pass efficiency), out-sacking foes 27-12. The Huskies won & covered their
last 5 games TY, 4 of them as an underdog, and UConn is 18-9 its last 27 getting
points. Says Edsall, “We’re used to being the underdogs....It’s nothing to us but
a little chip on our shoulders—a little disrespect.” Here’s his chance to do
something about it
GOLD SHEET EXTRA TECH PLAYS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Going against Michigan has been a good idea ever since HC Rich Rodriguez
arrived on the scene in 2008. Since then, the Wolverines are a decidedly
subpar 10-26 vs. the number, and enter the January 1st Gator Bowl vs.
Mississippi State on an 8-game spread losing streak. SEC reps such as the
Bulldogs have been offering good bowl pointspread value for years, standing
16-9 vs. the number in the postseason since 2007, while HC Dan Mullen’s
MSU covered 6 of 8 chances as a favorite this season.
UCONN
The Fiesta Bowl on January 1st in Glendale, AZ is a big opportunity for
UConn, making its first-ever BCS or New Year’s Day bowl as it faces
Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. But the Huskies have been faring pretty well
lately in postseason, covering their last two and three of their last four bowls,
and enter this contest having won and covered five in a row to close the
regular season. Edsall’s UConn is also 18-9 its last 27 as an underdog,
qualifying as a featured Bowl Power Underdog and Bowl Coach as
Underdog (with Edsall) recommendation. The Huskies are also 17-point
underdogs, and note that bowl dogs receiving 7 points or more have covered
at a 65% clip the past decade. Also note that Sooner HC Bob Stoops has been
failing in recent bowls, with no covers his last four or six of his last seven
dating back to 2003, with no covers his last four BCS appearances as well.
CKO
11 MISSISSIPPI ST. over Michigan
MISSISSIPPI STATE 40 - Michigan 24
Ann Arbor sources report the growing speculation that embroiled “Rich Rod” (10-26 vs. spread in his 3+ seasons)
might be dismissed following the Gator Bowl has been a distraction for a number of Michigan players considering
transferring if he is given the boot. Meanwhile, MSU’s beloved 2nd-year HC Dan Mullen—who has directed his
nationally-ranked squad to its best mark in 11 years—will reportedly soon be given a new 4-year deal and salary
bump by new athletic director Scott Stricklin, who has made facility upgrades a top priority. Fundamentally, Bulldogs’
astute defensive co-coordinators Chris Wilson & Manny Diaz are confident the fast, smothering defense (20 ppg)
is well-equipped to minimize “explosion plays” by UM’s jet-quick operator Denard Robinson, who’ll be “spied” by
topflight LB duo of Chris White & K.J. Wright. On other side, Bulldogs’ powerful/mobile 6-4, 240 QB Relf—benefiting
from blossoming RS frosh RB Perkins (238 yds. rushing/receiving in Egg Bowl!)—figures to further exploit an oh-sowoeful
Wolverine defense (34 ppg). Note, UM’s last 7 losses have been by DDs!
TOTALS:
OVER (59½) in the Michigan-Mississippi State Game (Gator Bowl, Jan. 1)—Wolverine defense not to be trusted...
UNDER (58) in the Tcu-Wisconsin Game (Rose Bowl, Jan. 1)—Badger ground game burns the clock, but isn’t likely to chew up the stubborn Horned Frog defense.
PLAYBOOK
5* BEST BET Alabama over Michigan St by 20
There are few things in this world more frightening than the baleful
gaze of a pissed-off Nick Saban and we’re sure Alabama’s players
have seen that look way too many times at practice since their epic
collapse against Auburn in the regular season fi nale. Enter today’s
sacrifi cial lamb, Michigan State, a team that never looked all that
impressive this year while somehow compiling an 11-1 SU record.
But 2010 defi nitely saw a ‘reversal of fortune’ for the Spartans
against fellow bowlers during the season: Mark Dantonio’s troops
posted a strong 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark as opposed to last year’s
1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS squad. Still, Sparty has been a poor investment in
postseason play, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS the last ten years as
bowlers. Not so with the Tide, who roll into Orlando with an 8-2 SU
and ATS log in bowls against foes off a SU and ATS win. In addition,
defending national champs off a loss are 7-1 ATS as bowlers versus
an opponent off a SU win and SEC bowlers off a SU favorite loss are
17-7 ATS (10-1 ATS L11), including 4-0 SU and ATS when they allow
14 or less PPG on the season. The cement comes from our database:
New Year’s Day or later dogs who allow 20+ PPG on the season are
3-18-1 ATS versus an opponent that failed to cover its fi nal game of
the season. Quite simply, Michigan State has not seen a defense as
physical or as fast as Bama’s all year and should fall well short of its
31 PPG season average on offense. Some think Saban, who made his
name as MSU’s head coach from 1995-99, may take his foot off the
throttle if his team builds a big lead. Not us. Look for the ‘Nic-tator’
to unleash Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and the whole package as the
Tide regains some pride in this no-doubt rout.
Texas Tech over Northwestern by 3
Jeez, when did the ‘Dallas Football Classic’ morph into the TicketCity Bowl?
No matter, one of the least interesting matchups this bowl season will kick
off New Year’s Day from the venerable Cotton Bowl. Northwestern fans
will be lamenting the loss of QB Dan Persa (ruptured Achilles tendon) after
just 10 games in 2010: he completed a school-record 73.5 percent of his
throws and piled up 2,581 yards with a 15-4 TD/INT ratio. As a result, NU
was outstatted by 116 YPG in its fi nal four games of the season but the
break has given replacement QB Evan Watkins time get a fi rm grasp on
the ‘Cats’ intricate spread offense. The Red Raiders had high hopes for
the season after former Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville replaced
the departed Mike Leach but the inconsistent squad has failed to live up
to expectations. We’ll blame a tough schedule as Tech owns a huge lined
opponent W-L record edge: TT foes went 72-53 while Wildcats’ foes were
52-65. But the Raiders will have to overcome the negatives of Tuberville
being a ‘new coach in a bowl’, along with a host of good stats favoring
the ‘Cats. First, Big 12 bowlers are 0-7 ATS as favorites off a win of 8 or
more points compared to Big Ten bowlers’ 7-1 ATS mark versus Big 12
foes off a double-digit win. Northwestern also stands 4-1 ATS versus the
Big 12 of late and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is a profi table 10-3 ATS as a
dog off a loss of more than 10 points. NU can claim only a single bowl win
in school history – the 1948 Rose Bowl – but they’ve come tantalizingly
close the last two years, losing consecutive bowls in overtime. This one
may not make it to an extra session but we’re thinking another tight
contest is in the offi ng here. It’s a take. Editor’s note: Texas Tech defensive
coordinator James Willis will not be on the sideline today as the school
announced he is leaving to “pursue other opportunities.” Considering the
Red Raider defense fi nished 116th in the nation (463 yards per game), his
fi rst opportunity will likely be a trip to the unemployment offi ce.
Florida over Penn St by 11
Hmmm… looks like this time Urban Meyer really IS leaving Florida,
considering the Gators have hired former Texas defensive coordinator
Will Muschamp to run the show. Which begs the question: how many
college football coaches have come and gone since Penn State’s ageless
Joe Paterno took over 45 years ago? Regardless, this will be Meyer’s last
game with the Gators and after a six-year stint at Gainesville that’s seen
UF go 64-15 and win two BCS championships, we’re convinced the swampdwellers
will plays their tails off today in an effort to send their departing
head coach out as a winner. The Gators’ defense held its own in 2010,
limiting four opponents to season-low yardage, but QB John Brantley
heard cries of ‘Bring Back Tim’ as he suffered through an up-and-down
year as the new leader on offense. The Nittany Lions struggled this season
as well. After back-to-back 11-2 campaigns, 7-5 PSU suffered its most losses
since 2004, with four of those defeats coming by at least 20 points. Their
saving grace here is Joe Pa’s 7-3 SU and ATS mark versus the SEC since 1990
but that’s not nearly enough to overcome Meyer’s ATS success in today’s
role. Ready? Meyer is 19-2 SU and 17-3-1 ATS with rest, 5-1 SU and ATS
as a bowler and he’s the answer to this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page
2. Wow! With the Lions a cowardly 3-10 ATS as underdogs versus greater
than .500 opposition over the last fi ve years – and Florida playing just two
hours from campus in their home state – we think the Gators will ‘Win one
for the Gipper’ today and grab the green in the process.
Mississippi St over Michigan by 1
Two of coaching’s biggest egos collide in another SEC-Big Ten matchup
but as much as we’d like to see Dan Mullen drive the fi nal nail into Rich
Rodriguez’s coaching coffi n at Ann Arbor, Rich Rod might actually be able
to keep things close here. The Wolverines sure won’t do it with defense:
assistant coach Greg Robinson’s ‘yield unit’ has allowed 34+ points in 11
of UM’s last 17 games. Balancing the scales is a highly productive doubledeuce
offense that rushes and passes for more than 200 YPG. Driving the
engine is versatile QB Denard Robinson, an early-season Heisman hopeful
who is equally dangerous running or throwing the football. He’ll have to
keep the pedal to the metal all day if Michigan expects to win and give
Rodriguez some hope of retaining his job. The numbers don’t look good.
Big Ten bowlers off a double-digit ATS loss are just 4-12 ATS and this year’s
Wolverines are a pitiful 1-7 ATS versus a foe with a winning record. On the
fl ip side, MSU’s Mullen has gone 3-0 ATS versus opponents off consecutive
losses and is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when taking on less-than .750 opposition.
Bulldogs are also a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in postseason play since
1999. Like we said, good numbers under Mullen… the question is whether
or not they’re ready to take the next step. Mississippi State currently owns
a weak 5-12 ATS mark laying points to .500 or better non-SEC opponents,
including 1-5 ATS as chalk of 6 or more points. Back bowling after a twoyear
hiatus, Michigan stands 10-1 ATS as a non-conference dog versus a
foe off a SU win. We don’t usually buck the trends but a strong gut feeling
says ‘Maize and Blue’ today.
Tcu over Wisconsin by 7
We’d love to see the look on head coach Gary Patterson’s face whenever
he reads one of those “Once again the BCS has delivered” press releases
where the organization touts that they’ve matched the top two teams in
college football for this year’s championship game. When last we looked,
TCU was 12-0 on the season – exactly like No. 2 Oregon – yet the Fort
Worth froggies somehow don’t deserve a shot at the title. Instead, they’ve
became the latest victim in the annual “If we have a playoff, it will kill the
bowl system” sweepstakes. To that, we utter this warning: Hell hath no fury
like a Horned Frog scorned. And believe it when we say we have proof. For
starters, TCU boasts the nation’s No. 1 ranked overall and scoring defense
(215 YPG and 11 PPG), a swarming unit that’s held six opponents to seasonlow
yards. Even more incredible, the Frogs have gone 32-1 ‘In The Stats’
over the last three seasons while also posting a 12-1 SU and ITS mark versus
bowl teams the past two years. But don’t go thinking the Badgers will
show up barefoot. Behind what could be the baddest front line in college
football, Wisky’s double-deuce offense complements a punishing ground
attack led by junior John Clay with over 200 passing yards per game (Clay
missed the fi nal three games of the season with a knee injury but has
been cleared to play today). Not only is the dog in Badgers’ bowl games
a healthy 8-3 ATS of late, Bret Bielema’s squad has bulldozed its way to a
current 6-0 SU and ATS win skein. And with Wisconsin owning a 7-0 SU and
ATS mark as a bowler off an ATS win of 7 or more points, things are starting
to even out, wouldn’t you say? Not when we factor in Bielema’s 3-8-1 ATS
failure versus unbeaten teams and Patterson’s 21-8-1 ATS record as a dog
or favorite of less than 7 points against a greater than .600 opponent. The
clincher comes from our database: dogs in BCS bowl games that allow 19.5
or more PPG on the season are 1-12 ATS if they scored 24 or more points
in the fi nal game of the regular season. TCU is one of the few teams in the
country that can match the sheer physicality of Wisconsin’s game and the
Frogs know if they don’t deliver a convincing win, the BCS will get the last
laugh. Look for the desert lizards to make a big-time statement on the
national stage tonight.
Oklahoma over Connecticut by 11
If this were a matchup between women’s basketball teams instead of
football, it would probably generate more interest than this – undoubtedly
the worst pairing of all this year’s bowls. How would YOU like to be the
person in charge of ticket sales for this ode to BCS incompetence? One guy
who won’t be complaining is Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops. Having
gone 2-5 SU lately in bowl games, Stoops can pacify Sooner nation with a
bloodletting against an overmatched foe here (17-point line favoring OU
is the bowl season’s biggest). Now we don’t begrudge any team taking
another to the slaughterhouse on occasion; we’re just saying it may not
happen tonight. Big East bowlers have owned the Big 12 since 2001, going
are 4-0 SU and ATS. They’ve also gone 4-1 SU and ATS versus winning
opponents in 2010 while Big East bowl dogs of 4 or more points are 6-1
ATS against a foe off a SU win. Big 12 bowlers, though, are a shocking 0-6
ATS as chalk of more than 6 points in BCS games. As noted, the Sooners
haven’t excelled in the postseason; they’re 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl
games – and 0-5 SU and ATS in their last fi ve BCS bowl appearances. Our
database chips in with this nugget: bowl dogs of 7.5 or more points who
gain more than 4 yards per rush are 18-5-1 ATS versus opponents that do
not gain 4 YPR. And the last bit of lipstick for tonight’s homely pig? Big 12
bowlers are just 1-7 ATS as favorites off back-to-back wins. Yes, we know
it’s not a fair fi ght but this is simply too many points for the erratic Sooners
to be laying – especially into an opponent with the better defense. Huskies
embarrassed South Carolina in last year’s bowl outing and head coach
Randy Edsall will have his sled dogs (appearing in our AWESOME ANGLE
on page 2) ready to go. Mush on over to the UConn window… sooner
rather than later.
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Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
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Golden St is 13-19 straight up this year. The Warriors are 2-6 ATS their last 8 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. Golden St is 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 11 or more points. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 25-9 straight up this year. The Heat are 12-4 ATS their last 16 games overall. Miami is 15-7-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat are 35-14-2 ATS their last 51 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. Miami is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record.
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Michigan State +10
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The SEC is still probably the best conference in the country, but regardless, this looks like an inflated line on the NCAAF betting odds in the Capital One Bowl matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Michigan State Spartans.
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MichiganState lost just once all season at Iowa, they have a balanced offense that is averaging 31.3 points and 408.5 yards per game that can give the Tide fits and they have an underrated defense that us allowing 20.1 points on only 329.6 yards per game. It is no small wonder then that the Spartans went 6-3 in NCAAF betting in the last nine games, culminating with a nice road win vs. the Penn State Nittany Lions to end the season.
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As for Alabama, one has to question how much they care about a non BCS bowl game the way their regular season ended, especially with their lay-down vs. the Utah Utes in the Sugar Bowl two years ago fresh in our minds. The Crimson Tide led Auburn 24-0 at home at Tuscaloosa as 4½ point favorites on the betting odds, and with a chance to end Auburn’s championship hopes, they allowed the Tigers to come back for a 28-27 victory.
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Besides blowing a chance to deal a blow to their most hated rival, Alabama probably would have ended up in a better bowl game than this one had they held on. Also, although you may not know it from the statistics, the Alabama secondary has been exposed at times this year by good passing teams, and Spartans’ quarterback Kirk Cousins has passed for over 2700 yards this season while averaging an excellent 8.5 yards per attempt.
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Look for Michigan State to put enough points on the board to cover ATS in this NCAAF matchup.
Stephen Nover
Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (-9'), at Dallas, TX
Texas Tech is going to put up its share of points. The key question is can Northwestern keep up? I don't see it.
Taking advantage of an easy non-conference schedule in which Vanderbilt was their top competition, the Wildcats opened 5-0. Northwestern then displayed is true colors losing to Purdue, Michigan State and Penn State.
The Wildcats suffered a cruel blow when All-Big Ten quarterback Dan Persa suffered a season-ending Achilles' tendon injury in a victory against Iowa, which was No. 13 at the time but has since proven to be vastly overrated.
Without Persa, the Wildcats lost their last two games falling to Illinois 48-27 and to Wisconsin in even more embarrassing fashion, 70-23. Persa made up for various shortcomings in Northwestern's offensive line. His leadership, talent and intangibles can't be underestimated.
Persa's backup is Evan Watkins, a redshirt freshman who had a one-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio against the Illini and Badgers.
The Wildcats also could be missing their three top runners. Persa, of course, is out. Mike Trumpy has a wrist injury and Arby Fields, their team rushing leader in 2009, decided to transfer.
Texas Tech and its coach, Tommy Tuberville, would like to put closure to the Mike Leach era with an impressive bowl win. Tuberville can silence some critics with a big win in this Cotton Bowl matchup. Texas Tech has the advantage of playing in its home state.
The Red Raiders ranked eighth in the FBS in passing averaging 314.8 yards per game and 32.1 points a game. Taylor Potts threw for 3,357 yards and 31 touchdowns. It's the 11th consecutive season the Red Raiders have had their quarterback exceed the 3,000-yard throwing mark.
Potts was brilliant in Texas Tech's Alamo Bowl victory against Michigan State, 41-31, last season throwing for 372 yards and two touchdowns despite missing some of the fourth quarter with an injury.
Don't be surprised if Texas Tech, though, also hurts Northwestern on the ground. Baron Batch and Eric Stephens are talented runners. Northwestern's run defense has fallen apart giving up 848 yards on the ground and 10 touchdowns in its last two games.
Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games. They enter this matchup at a low point. The Wildcats are 0-7 in bowl action since 1995. They have lost during each of the past two seasons in their bowl matchups.
1♦ TEXAS TECH
Scott Delaney
Northwestern vs. Texas Tech (-9'), at Dallas, TX
The Red Raiders might have the same record as the Wildcats, but I like Texas Tech's offense to open things up and blow Northwestern back to Chicago.
The always dangerous Tech offense catches a Northwestern defense that allowed 118 points over its last two games.
Not good, since the Raiders have scored 99 points in their last two out the box and are looking to finish the season on a three-game streak in Tommy Tubberville's first season at the helm.
And quite frankly, I don't think the 'Cats stand a chance at keeping up with the 17th best offene in the land and 8th best passing offense, when they have a freshman quarterback under center. Evan Watkins started the final two games and quaintly tossed four picks.
Practice time is much different than game time, and though he's going to be facing the worst pass defense in the nation, it doesn't mean he'll overcome throwing the ball to the wrong time, or making bad decisions under pressure.
I'll lay the points in this one, and expect a blowout win.
2♦ TEXAS TECH
Bobby Maxwell
Penn St. vs. Florida (-7), at Tampa, Fla.
For my comp selection, while Florida did struggle down the stretch, losing five of their final eight games, this is coach Urban Meyer’s final game as he’ll calls it quits after the Outback Bowl. Expect extra motivation to come from the Gators today to send him off in style.
Florida needs to take care of the ball and they should be OK today. QB John Brantley threw just nine TDs and had nine INTs this season in 12 games. His offense struggled down the stretch, turning the ball over six times in the final two games. The Gators can still play some solid defense, giving up just 21 points a game and limiting teams to 121.8 yards rushing per game.
Penn State is a struggling offense that manages just 18.8 points per game away from home. The Nittany Lions were ninth in the Big 10 in points per game and they just don’t have any decisiveness from QBs Robert Bolden or Matt McGloin.
The Nittany Lions are on ATS slides of 2-5 against winning teams, 2-6 against non-conference teams and 1-4 as underdogs. Florida is on positive ATS streaks, 20-7 in non-conference actions, 22-10 as a favorite, 6-1 in neutral site games and 4-1 in bowl games.
I’ll go ahead and play the motivation factor in this one as Florida rises to the occasion and delivers a big win for Meyer in his farewell game. Lay the points and play the Gators in this one.
2♦ FLORIDA
Craig Davis
Penn State (+7) vs. Florida, at Tampa, FL
Today's free play is on the Penn State Nittany Lions over Florida. Yes, another Big 10 team getting points. Vegas has given Big 10 teams absolutely no credit, as only one of them (Ohio State) is the listed favorite, and I'm not even sure they should be.
Is there a better bowl game coach recently than Joe Paterno? I know he's old and probably past his prime, but you have to admit that when you give that old bird a few weeks to prepare for a team, his teams are always prepared.
The Nits have won four of their last six games since switching QBs to Matt McCloin, and the only two losses were a 38-14 loss at Ohio State and a six-point loss to Michigan State. Even the OSU game was closer than the final score indicated, and they actually held the lead at halftime.
This team has improved drastically from where they were in the first half of the year, and it all comes back to a dependence on Evan Royster and the running game and the consistency at QB. McCloin has 13 TDs and just four INTs since taking over as the starter.
Right now Penn State is getting better and more consistent and there are no major changes going on with this program... just good ole' fashioned Penn State football.
As for Florida... they are a mess. They don't know what offense they want to run, their QB sucks, their defense lost a ton of starters, and they are playing for a coach who they feel is abandoning them after this game.
Do you think Urban Meyer's heart is going to be in this game? If any one of you who are reading this are married with children, you know what Meyer is likely going through. He's leaving college football because his wife is nagging him to come home.
Meyer loves football, but he loves his family more and has been pressured to give up his career while his kids are still growing. His legacy has already been written... this game means nothing. And let's not kid ourselves, this team isn't a fraction of what he's had in the past.
Meyer's Gators will be missing three defensive starters and possibly a few on offense as well, giving the Nits more of a chance to really control this game. I like Penn State plus the points in yet another bowl win.
3♦ PENN STATE
Chris Jordan
TCU vs. Wisconsin, at Pasadena, Calif.
While everyone is marveling about TCU's defense, and Wisconsin's physical nature, I'm wondering if anyone else notices how this total is relatively higher than some of the other games that had talented defenses as well.
I think the oddsmakers are begging you to play this one Under, but in reality, with the Horned Frogs boasting the seventh-best rushing game, the ninth-best offense and fourth-best scoring offense, they're going to dictate the pace knowing there's a good chance they're in store for a shootout with Wisconsin.
The Badgers have long been known as a program that prepares well for their Rose Bowl performances, and they come into this one with the 12th-best rushing offense, the 18th-best offense and the fourth-overall scoring offense.
Remember, this Wisconsin team put up 201 points in its last three games, and just because it was against Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern, keep in mind the Wolverines are also playing today, and the other two are also members of the Big 10 - a far cry from the Mountain West Conference.
Sorry, but as much as I like TCU's defense, I have to believe we're in store for a great game. If you want to know who I think gets the money, it's a 300♦ play; but as for the total, it's going over.
3♦ TCU/WISCONSIN OVER
Chuck O'Brien
TCU vs. Wisconsin (+3), at Pasadena, Calif.
Three points to make with respect to today’s action: I’m on a 6-3 roll with 25 Dime college football selections; I’m on a 15-6 roll with 15 Dime plays (including Syracuse over Kansas State on Thursday); and I’m 11-4 over the past seven college football Saturdays for 91 Dimes.
For your New Year’s Day complimentary bowl selection, take Wisconsin as an underdog in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin.
I’ve been a big TCU fan and believe the Horned Frogs have the talent (especially on defense) to compete with pretty much any team in the country. Problem is this is one of those “bad matchup” situations. The simple fact is the Horned Frogs have not seen an opponent that has Wisconsin’s size and brawn up front, and I think the Badgers are going to batter, bruise and bully TCU in this contest.
More to the point, on its way to a 12-0 record TCU simply didn’t play an opponent with the kind overall talent Wisconsin has. The Horned Frogs’ non-Mountain West Conference schedule included Oregon State, Tennessee Tech, Baylor and SMU. And while the latter two went to bowl games, both lost (SMU was upset on its home field by Army, while Baylor got destroyed by Illinois.
Admittedly, Wisconsin’s non-conference schedule was weak (UNLV, San Jose State, Arizona State, Austin Peay), but the Badgers also faced Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Michigan (all bowl teams), going 4-1 SU and ATS in those contests. What’s more after falling 34-24 at Michigan State, Wisconsin not only won its final seven games in a row (all in the Big Ten), but six of those were double-digit routs, and the Badgers closed the regular season on a 6-0 ATS run. That included the outright upsets of Ohio State and Iowa (the only two times this season Wisconsin was an underdog).
TCU’s last two bowl games were against talented Boise State and the Frogs were less than impressive in both, eking out a 17-16 win in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl and losing the rematch in last year’s Fiesta Bowl 17-10 as a seven-point chalk.
No doubt the Horned Frogs will be eager to make amends for that Fiesta Bowl defeat and prove they can play with the big boys. But Wisconsin (which is 3-0 in its last three trips to the Rose Bowl) will be equally as motivated, as the Badgers don’t want to lose to a non-BCS team (as it is, you know they’re very much aware of the fact that they’re an underdog to a Mountain West Conference opponent, and coach Brett Bielema has used that to prod his players leading up to this contest).
Chuckster calls for a 27-24 outright Wisconsin upset.
4♦ WISCONSIN
Derek Mancini
Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (-16'), at Phoenix, AZ
I'll admit when I first looked at this line, I was surprised at how generous the oddsmakers were being. However, I quickly snapped out of it, and realized that's exactly what the oddsmakers wanted me to think. In other words, don't be scared to lay the points here, because the guys in Vegas wouldn't give you this many unless they were sure the Sooners were going to rip the Huskies.
So how do the do it? Simple, get up early and never look back. The Huskies are not a team that can play from behind, mainly because they have a very mediocre offense. How limited is their offense? Try 96th in the country, and that includes the contributions of stud RB Jordan Todman. Achilles Heel is the passing game, led by (and I use that term looseley) Zach Frazer, who won the job by default after Endres' injury. To be perfectly honest, he's awful, posting numbers so pathetic I don't even want to waste your time writing them.
The Sooners are well aware of his deficiencies, and will be playing the run almost exclusively tonight. UCONN-backers will argue that Oklahoma run defense is average at best, allowing 152 rushing yards per game this season. But, before you go relying on simply stats, remember two things: first, they showed their ability to stop a run heavy team in the Big 12 Championship, surrendering only 145 yards on 43 carries (3.4 ypc) against Nebraska. And secondly, despite their sub-par numbers, this Sooners defense is loaded with talent, and given the extra time to prepare, I expect that talent will shine.
No question Stoops wants this game bad. And given the match ups and the Huskies inability to threaten via the air, the Sooners will be able to zero in and contain Todman. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma's offense will face a very good Connecticut defense, but the combo of Jones/Murray will prove too much to handle. Look for the Sooners to come out fast and furious, eventually demoralizing a one-dimensional Huskies team in submission. Lay it with Oklahoma over Connecticut Saturday.
3♦ OKLAHOMA
Chris Jordan
San Diego at NC STATE (-20)
Two nights ago I talked about an ill-advised trip the day before New Year's Eve, for Pepperdine, which got mauled by Miami, Florida. The same could be said in this game, as the rebuilding San Diego Toreros have no business playing on New Year's Day against an ACC team on its own court.
But so be it, the NC State Wolfpack will do some mauling of their own, as the Toreros will continue to struggle during the non-conference portion of their season and get outclassed by a much more physical team.
Think about it this way, this Noon tip is actually at 9 a.m. San Diego time, as the 3-10 Toreros are in after a one week layoff. I know they beat Utah in Hawaii on Christmas Day, a three-point upset as an 11'-point dog, but the Wolfpack are a different animal.
This is more than a cross-country trip, as this team is coming from the islands, and now cross-country to play its fourth road game in the midst of six straight on the highway, is going to be a beast for coach Bill Grier, who in his fourth season at USD is experiencing his toughest chore with the Toreros.
NC State is 6-1 at home this season and warmed up for this one with an 82-51 win over visiting Alabama A&M at the RBC Center Tuesday afternoon. The Pack will be well-rested and plenty ready for the Toreros today in this early tip.
5♦ NC STATE
Stephen Nover
Bowling Green (+13) at ST. LOUIS
This is Saint Louis' first game back from playing three games in the Cancun Governor's Cup in Mexico where it lost to Southern Mississippi and Mississippi after opening with a victory against Northeastern.
It's going to be difficult for the Bilikens to get up for Bowling Green, a weak Mid-American Conference team. Saint Louis has a much more important game on Wednesday opening Atlantic 10 Conference action against Dayton. Bowling Green doesn't play until the following Saturday. So the Falcons should be focused and primed for an all-out effort.
Saint Louis has been a solid fade during non-conference failing to cover in its last six lined games. The Bilikens usually aren't very good in non-league as their coach, Rick Majerus, uses the time to try different lineup combinations. The Bilikens are 7-18-1 ATS going back to their 26 non-conference games.
Saint Louis is especially young this season as Majerus has been starting three freshman with veterans Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - their two top scorers from a year ago - both suspended.
This has been a factor in the Bilikens shooting just 46.6 percent from the floor, which ranks 307th. Saint Louis also is being out-rebounded by nearly five boards a game. The Bilikens aren't an especially good free throw shooting club either making just 63.8 percent, which ranks 283rd.
Bowling Green is playing better than it was earlier this season. The Falcons have won three of their past four games. The Falcons handled Saint Louis at home last season, winning 59-50. That game was in the pick range. Now Saint Louis is favored by double-digits. I'm not buying it.
1♦ BOWLING GREEN
Derek Mancini
Wichita State at BRADLEY (+6)
This is a interesting match up, because if you look at these two teams on paper, you'd expect the Shockers to win rather easily here. However, capping college ball is never that easy, and you have to take into account situational factors.
For example, bettors are fading Bradley based on their recent loss at Indiana State. However, if you watched the game, clearly Bradley got caught looking ahead to this contest. They came out flat and sloppy, committing 17 turnovers while shooting just 39%. A return home is exactly what this team needs, as we saw in the two wins prior to the Indiana State loss. Fact is this Braves team is better than the numbers indicate, and Wichita State is about to find that out the hard way.
Speaking of Wichita State, they're only 1-3 ATS on the highway, and after recent ATS losses to San Diego State and LSU, its hard to stomach laying this many points. Not only that, but for all their good points, the Shockers usually stout defense doesn't travel well, surrendering 76 ppg on 42% shooting away. This is key for a Bradley offense that's desperate for a big game.
Finally, besides being a conference game, there's no question the Braves are looking at this game as a springboard to turn their season around. They'll be highly motivated, and given the way Warren torched them the last time they played (red-hot 7 of 9 shooting for 18 points), I suspect we'll see the Braves bring their "A" game tonight. Long story short, the public is unjustly fading Bradley based on their recent loss, when in reality they were playing well (2 straight wins before Indiana State game) and got caught looking ahead. Take Bradley plus the points over Wichita State.
1♦ BRADLEY
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Northwestern vs. Texas TechFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Northwestern +9FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I think the Northwestern Wildcats have an advantage when they make it to a Bowl game. Even without Dan Persa, I like the motivational spot here for Northwestern. The Wildcats show up ready to play and are familiar to the dog role as most teams they draw are favored against them. Those teams don't ever get very motivated vs. a Northwestern team that isn't in the national spotlight. Last year the Wildcats used that to their advantage as a similar 9-point underdog vs. Auburn, and took the Tigers into overtime before losing 38-35, but getting the money. They turned the trick two years ago as a 14-point underdog to Missouri, and once again took a different Tigers team to overtime before losing 30-23, but got the money again. Back in 2003, they lost and covered as a 6-point dog. I have said that Bowl games are all about motivation and for Northwestern it is always a motivating experience. It won't be the case for Texas Tech. The Wildcats are always under the radar as a 3.5-10 point dog going 21-6 ATS in their last 27. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, are a lackluster 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowls. My computer matchup has Northwestern losing 26-34. Northwestern does it again!
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Sharks @ KingsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Under 5.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What's up with the Kings? From 12/21 through 12/27 they played four games. During that stretch, they gave up a grand total of only three goals. Yet, in their last two games they've given up a whopping 13. Those results should have the Kings determined to ring in the new year with a much better defensive effort.
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Defenseman Rob Scuderi was quoted as saying: "Certainly two of our ugliest of the year. We're not making excuses for ourselves, but it does happen. We have to scrape them under the rug and move on."
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Another LA defenseman (Matt Greene) noted: "If we want to win games, we can’t give up six and seven on back-to-back nights and expect to win any games ... We’ve got to play the game, think the game and right now we’re not doing either one on defense."
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Cleary, this team wants to improve its defensive play. Note that the Kings recorded a shutout when they faced these same Sharks less than a week ago.
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Also, note that the Kings are still only allowing an average of two goals per game here at home. Their home games are now averaging 5.1 goals, on the season. The UNDER is 12-4-1 here, 10-4 when the Kings have played here with an O/U line of 5.5.
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Including last week's result, the Sharks have seen the UNDER go 35-19-8 (65%) the past few seasons, when facing divisional opponents. Even with a high-scoring game vs. the Hawks on 12/30, the Sharks have also still seen seven of their last 10 games stay below the number. Consider Under 5.5 goals.
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Connecticut @ OklahomaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Connecticut +16.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma has the illustrious recognition of joining Boise St as the biggest favorite in this bowl season (16-17 points). While this may be the appropriate gambling line to encourage bets on both sides, there are a host of reasons as to why Connecticut is a formidable opponent that will keep this game much closer. The Huskies have won (and covered) five games in a row. Coach Randy Edsall has had issues at quarterback this season but because of the school's suspension of Cody Endres, Zach Frazier is now clearly the man for the Huskies. This stability has helped. So too has RB Jordan Todman who is 2nd in the FBS with his 143.1 rushing YPG average. Overall, Todman accumulated 1,574 rushing YPG along with 14 TDs. He leads an offense that has gained 179.9 rushing YPG (31st in the FBS). Todman's strong rushing combines with a defense that was 48th in the FBS in yards allowed (353.7 YPG) and 23rd in the FBS in points allowed (19.8 PPG). Even better, Edsall's defense improved throughout the season and ended up holding opponents to just 322.3 total YPG along with 13 PPG in over the three games. In all, Edsall should be given credit -- or perhaps the nerve given the weak Big East Conference, the luxury -- to allow room for his team to improve. I have taken notice of this progression as the Huskies enter the postseason with another top-level defense supported by a future NFL running back. That is a solid foundation for covering a spread of more than two TDs. I won’t waste space regarding Oklahoma, as the Sooners clearly own the better talent. However, it’s hard for me to imagine that the Sooners will view this game with an 8-4 Connecticut team as a worthy reward for winning the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners are also in a damned if they do, damned if they don’t position. Crush the Huskies and who cares? Eke out a win or god forbid lose, and it’s a major embarrassment. However, BCS bowl embarrassments have become commonplace for the coach once dubbed “Big Game Bob.” A check of his recent record in “big games” makes that moniker fairly ridiculous these days. Stoops and his Sooners have lost FIVE consecutive BCS bowls (three of them national title games)! Will the Sooners do what Boise St did to Utah? The Broncos had to be greatly disappointed to play Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl this year but won 26-3, outgaining the Utes 543 to 200 in yards. Or, will they ‘pull a Nebraska,’ which lost 19-7 to Washington in the Holiday Bowl, gaining a pathetic 189 yards? My bet is that it will be somewhere “in between.” Connecticut may not win this game but the Huskies will prove that their defense is top notch and Todman will prove he is an elite rusher. That combination will keep even a “lowly” Big East team like UConn competitive in this contest. Needless to say, the Huskies offer us very nice value as the big underdog here.
MTi Sports
Golden State at Miami
Play on: Miami
Golden St is 13-19 straight up this year. The Warriors are 2-6 ATS their last 8 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. Golden St is 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 11 or more points. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 25-9 straight up this year. The Heat are 12-4 ATS their last 16 games overall. Miami is 15-7-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat are 35-14-2 ATS their last 51 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. Miami is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record.