VEGAS EXPERTS
Michigan at Mississippi State
Michigan, once a New Year's Day staple, does not belong here any longer. Under Rich Rod, the Wolverines are just terrible against the pointspread, going 0-7 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. They were a stunning 0-8 ATS in Big 10 play. The three league wins came against Purdue, Indiana and Illinois in a game they allowed 65 points. Other than non-bowler Purdue, EVERY Michigan Big 10 opponent scored at least 35 points. The defense is absolutely atrocious ranking #102 in points (33.8 PPG) and #108 in yards (448).
Play on: Mississippi State
Rocketman
Michigan State @ Alabama
Play: Alabama -8
Michigan State is 1-5 SU and ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Alabama is 13-1 SU and 10-3 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Alabama's defense is allowing only 14.1 points per game overall this year. Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Alabama is the better team here. Alabama has a very good quarterback in McElroy and their running game is going to put up some big numbers today as well. I'm looking for a blowout. We'll recommend a small play on Alabama today!
SPORTS WAGERS
Alabama –8½ over Michigan
The Spartans went 11-1 this season while the Tide went 9-3. The Spartans come in ranked #7 in the nation while the Tide come in ranked #16, yet the oddsmakers made Alabama a 8½-point choice and that tells us that the books don’t really believe that 11-1 record. A close look at MSU’s out of conference schedule shows wins over Western Michigan, Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, and Notre Dame. Notre Dame is somewhat credible but that came early when they weren’t and besides, it took the Spartans OT to beat them. The Spartans were buried by Iowa 37-6 in their only loss and now they’ll face perhaps the best defense in the land. Of its 12 games this season, the Tide played six against ranked teams including LSU, Auburn and Arkansas. Despite facing a number of potent attacks, Alabama allowed an average of just 14 points a game and surely they’re not taking a step up in class when facing these Spartans. This seems like a lot of points indeed to be spotting a team with an 11-1 record that’s ranked #7 and that’s what the books are banking on. The Tide are wickedly good in every category and should win the battle in the trenches and pull away from this over-ranked opponent. Play: Alabama –8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Mississippi St. –3½ +1.00 over Michigan
The Bulldogs went 8-4 this season but their four losses were against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn and Alabama, arguably the top four teams in the nation. Against Auburn they lost by three and against Arkansas they lost in double OT. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were crushed by just about every quality opponent they played including a season ending loss to Ohio St by 30 points. Michigan dropped five of its last seven games with only wins during that stretch occurring against Purdue and Illinois. The big threat for the Wolverines is Denard Robinson, who just might be the best player in college. He’s the only reason Michigan is playing in this game and he’s the only player that can hurt us. If he’s not performing at his absolute best and then some, the Wolverines will get thumped and that’s because of a defense that has no shot of keeping anyone off the board. For sure the Bulldogs will put up plenty of points and may not even punt once in this contest. The whole key will be to keep Robinson off the field so expect MSU to pound the ball and throw easy completions when called for. To keep pace the Wolverines will need some turnovers or they’ll have to score on just about every possession and that’s unlikely to happen. What we do know is that the Bulldogs played very close games against the best and beat a lot of better teams than the Wolverines. They should be more than prepared to deal with one player. Play: Mississippi State –3½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN ANTONIO –6½ over Oklahoma City
We’re coming right back against this Thunder team after they celebrated a New Year’s Eve victory over the Hawks. They’ll now play on the road against the NBA’s best, where their flaws will be exposed a lot more than they are at home. This Thunder team is now 23-11 but their charmed life is not going to last. In winning, they’ve not had to deal or correct all of their bad habits that include, poor percentage shots, turning the ball over a ton and a rather soft defense. In fact, the Thunder rank 20th in the Association in defense and they’re not much better in rebounding either. Meanwhile, the Spurs have held its last three opponents, the Mav’s, Lakers and Wiz to 93, 82 and 80 points respectively. They’ve won 18 of 20 home games and when they played in Oklahoma City earlier in the year they scored 117 points and won by 13. Can’t imagine for a second why this one should be any different at the AT&T Center. Play: San Antonio –6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Toronto +1.22 over OTTAWA
We’ve been down on the Leafs all year but there are some strong signs that this team is about to turn it around. Aside from the final two periods in their last game against the Jackets, the Maple Leafs have been playing some damn good hockey. They’re spending a lot of time in the offensive end and creating a ton of chances. The Leafs power-play has been sharp and the forwards are on the verge of breaking out. Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstong, Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin and Tyler Bozak are all working hard and playing well and it’s going to pay off real soon. Toronto has deserved a much better fate than its recent five losses in six games suggest, as they were the better team in at least four and possibly five of those six losses. The Sens played last night in Columbus and while they, too, deserved a better fate they’re still a team that is extremely offensively challenged and rarely outplay their opponents. The Leafs will be ready to tonight and they will outplay the Sens. They’ll lose if the goaltending is weak or if Brian Elliott is hot but in a game in which we get a tag on the club that has a great chance of winning, the right play is on the Maple Leafs. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.00 over Calgary
The Flames have not won four straight this season and rarely even string together two wins in a row, let alone four. The beat the Avalanche last night but in no way would we trust this intruder as a road favorite. The Oilers are in a funk, which is nothing new but they’ve been in every game against quality opposition and absolutely have a great chance to win here. Edmonton has dropped five straight with two of those coming in OT and the two others by a single goal. Those one goal losses were against San Jose and Vancouver and the OT losses occurred against Los Angeles and Colorado. That’s a pretty strong quartet indeed. The Oilers do not get down on themselves, as they’re very aware of the growing pains are they’re using this season to gain experience and to learn what it takes to win. They’re close and the fans are in full support of this potential juggernaut a couple years down the road. The losing streak ends here with another inspired effort. Play: Edmonton +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Gray Maynard (by Decision) +140 over Frankie Edgar
The last time these two met in the octagon, Maynard rolled to a dominant unanimous decision. That fight was almost two years ago and although Edgar has evolved as a fighter since then, tonight could be much of the same. Edgar proved all of his critics wrong when he beat BJ Penn not once but twice to solidify his worth as the UFC Lightweight Champion. However, the feat sounds much more impressive than it actually was as Penn could not have looked any less inspired in both of those contests. This is not to suggest that he is not a very gifted fighter - he is 13-1 in his MMA career and 8-1 in the UFC, however both of those records contain a blemish that was inflicted by his opponent tonight. Gray Maynard has never been beaten and sports an immaculate 10-0 record, with eight of those wins coming in the UFC. The names on his résumé make that mark even more impressive as he boasts wins against the likes of Dennis Siver, Jim Miller, Nate Diaz, Kenny Florian and of course Frankie Edgar. His most recent bout against Ken-Flo really stands out because he completely obliterated one of the top names of the division. Edgar definitely has a speed advantage but it will be countered with sheer power. He loves to stick and move but that doesn't work when your opponent grabs you, wraps you up and throws you down on your head. Speed kills but in the UFC the bigger, better wrestler usually wins. With 17 of 24 of their combined fights going the distance and the oddsmakers posting a line of –2.70 that it does the distance, it only makes sense to take the plus money on Maynard winning by decision. Expect Gray Maynard to use his size and skills to claim the Lightweight crown on New Year's Day. Play: Gray Maynard +140 by decision over Frankie Edgar (Risking 2 units).
Nate Diaz +100 over Dong Hyun Kim
Nate Diaz is a dynamic and punishing fighter and it's shocking to see him as the underdog here. He's lost three of his last six in the UFC but two of those were by a very narrow margin and against rock solid opponents in Clay Guida and the aforementioned Gray Maynard. It should be noted that those losses came at Lightweight and he has since won back-to-back fights at Welterweight. Those performances were particularly dominant with a guillotine choke victory over Marcus Davis and a TKO of Rory Markham. Dong Hyun Kim is a sparkling 13-0-1 in his career but he is taking a huge step up in class tonight. The four opponents that he has beaten in the octagon are a combined 11-11 in the UFC and none of them sport an arsenal even close to that of Diaz. The "Stun Gun" is an exciting and talented fighter but he should be handed his first loss tonight. Nate Diaz looks stronger and more comfortable since moving to the Welterweight division and you can expect him to come out of the gates very aggressive. The wrong side appears to be favored here as Diaz sports all kinds of value at plus money. Play: Nate Diaz +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
John Ryan
Arizona St. at Oregon
Prediction: Oregon
5* graded play on Oregon as they host Arizona State in College hoops action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game easily. Arizona State head coach Sendek is Sendek is 9-19 ATS after having won four of their last five games. Oregon head coach Altman is a solid Altman is 14-4 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 106-61 using the money line and has made 37.7 units since 2005. Play on home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after a loss by 10 points or more facing an opponent after scoring 65 points or less two straight games. Oregon will look to force the tempo even more than like to play knowing that ASU is depleted at the guard position. It is possible that ASU guards Ty Abbott and Trent Lockett will be back for this game. However, both are nursing leg injuries and Lockett has a toe issue making both of them far less than 100%. Note that ASU 14-32 against the money line (-19.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots per game since 1997. Take the Ducks.