FREE NFL PLAY FOR 1/14/2012: We're siding with the UNDER 47.5 points in the N.O. Saints/S.F. 49ers. New Orleans has had the luxury to play their last three games at home. We suspect that they may look a little "out of tune" as this will be their first game in a hostile environment in a month. While the Saints may have averaged 41 points/game at home this year, they only averaged 27 points/game on the road in the regular season. Today they face one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. In fact, the 49ers defense allowed only 10.9 points/game at home. The 49ers don't score a ton of points either, averaging 23/game for the regular season. These two met up in New Orleans early in the year and the Saints won by a field goal, 25-22. We dont expect that many points scored in San Francisco today. The under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass, and 4-0 in the Saints last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Meanwhile the under is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in their last 5 at home. We're taking the UNDER 47.5 in San Francisco. OUR FREE PICKS ARE NOW 141-76-1. Sign up today to receive all of our free plays via email.
MTi Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (+16.8 ppg) with no rest after a win in which Kevin Love had more turnovers than assists and the Hawks are 0-7 ATS (-10.4 ppg) after a double digit home win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. Take the points in this match-up.
Vegas Experts
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
Play: Portland Trail Blazers
Both teams played last night. Houston won 103-89 here at the Toyota Center against lowly Sacramento while Portland dropped its second straight game, losing by 16 at San Antonio. Fortunately, the Blazers have never been bothered by playing on back to back nights, going 17-5 ATS when in that spot when both games on the road. They'll be hungrier here off a loss. Houston's only two wins this month have come against Charlotte and Sacramento.
SPORTS WAGERS
Xavier -8½ over St. Bonaventure
12:00 PM EST. Give us the straight up winner in games like this and we'll usually see the point-spread winner too. The Xavier Musketeers just handed Duquesne a thorough 78-50 beating to extend their Atlantic-10 home-court winning streak to 41. The Bonnies pose little risk in ending it. The reason for this beatable number is that the Bonnies have won four of five and they're coming off a nice 8-point win over the 12-5 Dayton Flyers. Don’t put much stock into that one. Dayton is weak and so are a lot of the other teams St. Bonaventure has defeated. They lost their last road game in Duquesne by 14 points. They also lost at Virginia Tech by nine. The Bonnies are not in the same class as this A-10 power. Xavier went through a recent stretch in which they lost five of six games. That's a good reminder that you can never take anything for granted. This is a strong Musketeer team that plays relentless defense and that continually wins by double-digits at home against inferior competition. The Bonnies fit that bill. Play:#548 Xavier (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
We're also playing the following games:
LSU +4½ over ARKANSAS
Play: #679 LSU +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
NORTHWESTERN +5 over Michigan State
Play: #596 Nothwestern +5 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +144 over Mid Tennessee State
Play:#652 Florida Atlantic +144 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
NASHVILLE +104 over Philadelphia
These two teams rarely play one another, having met just 14 times lifetime. Philly has been here twice since '05 and the Predators have won both games. That's not surprising because one figures the Preds to be more amped up to play a high-profile team like the Flyers at home in front of what figures to be a sold out house. Nashville is 4-1-1 at home vs. Eastern Conference teams and they've won six of their past seven games overall. The Flyers conclude a four-game trip here after winning their last two, discounting any sense of urgency. The two wins on this trip came against the ‘Canes and Islanders (big deal) and prior to that, Philadelphia had dropped four of seven. The Flyers are really not in the best form right now and that should work well for a warm and jacked up host Play: Nashville +104 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa -102 over MONTREAL
To quote a line from the classic movie, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys”?With the hated Canadiens on deck, all the Senators did was skate into Madison Square Garden on Thursday and hand the league-leading Rangers just their fourth loss at home this season. Since the end of the second period last Sunday, the Sens have outscored their opponents 12-1. Only five teams in the NHL have more points than Ottawa. They've won seven of eight and they've scored 14 times over their past three games. In its last four games against Philly twice, Pittsburgh and the Rangers, Ottawa has picked up seven of a possible eight points. The Sens are not a fluke, they've been doing this all year and they have payback on their minds here. The Montreal Canadiens are a team in complete chaos. Their talent deficit has been daunting for a long time and thus, years of overacheiving has finally caught up to them. Only the outstanding goaltending of Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak (previously) has kept them respectable. Carey Price is to Montreal what Peyton Manning is to the Indianapolis Colts. The best news is that the last time these two met on Dec 27, Montreal beat up the Senators 6-2. In a complete mismatch both in mind and talent, we'll gladly lay the small price. Play: Ottawa -102 (Risking 2.04 uniots to win 2).
Los Angeles -105 over CALGARY
At the time of this writing, there was no line posted but figure this game to be a pick ‘em or thereabouts. We will update this line as soon as it comes out. The Flames have won three in a row since that 9-0 thumping they took in Boston nine days ago but we're not buying it for a minute. They beat a reeling Minnesota club that is currently on a 2-12 run and they followed that up with a misleading 6-3 win over New Jersey. In that win over the Devils, Calgary scored six times on 14 shots on net with pretty much the entire game being played in Calgary's end. Finally, the Flames beat the Ducks 1-0 in OT on Thursday. The only deserving win was over Minnesota. Prior to that, the Flames had dropped nine of 13 games. The luck will run out as they can't keep winning games when they are outplayed constantly. The Kings play hard every game and appear ready to be climbing the standings. Quietly, the Kings have picked up points in 11 of their past 12 games and haven't lost two in a row in over a month. Play: Los Angeles -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Jack Jones
New Jersey Nets +9
The New Jersey Nets are showing awesome value again Saturday as a 9-point underdog to the Utah Jazz. New Jersey point guard Deron Williams is going to want this one a little more considering he will be playing against his former team. I look for the Nets to take the Jazz right down to the wire, likely pulling off the upset.
Williams poured in 35 points and dished out 14 assists last night as the Nets won outright at Phoenix 110-103 as a 6.5-point underdog. That was the third straight cover for the Nets, who played the Nuggets to an 8-point game on the road and lost to the Hawks by 5 points at home in their two games before Phoenix. This team is certainly getting better with time.
Utah is way overvalued and they should never be this heavily favored. The Jazz had been beating up on some bad teams before meeting their match in a home loss to the Lakers last time out. They had won five straight before that, but four of those wins came by nine points or less against inferior opponents.
This play falls into a system that is 22-5 (81.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (NEW JERSEY) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (<=33%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Jazz are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet New Jersey Saturday.
Ben Burns
Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals
The Capitals are surging. They won again on Friday and are within two points of first place in the Southeast. While the Caps had Friday off, the Hurricanes were busy hosting the defending champs. They'll be playing their third game in four nights here.
The Caps are now 16-6 (16-5-1) at home. On the other hand, the Canes are now a dismal 5-16 (5-12-4) away from Raleigh.
The Caps are also 7-1 the last eight games in this series; 2-0 already this season. No real reason to expect anything different here. Don't mind a larger favorite, consider laying the wood with WASHINGTON.
JR O'Donnell
Florida -7.5
JR O's MEMBERS ball game tips off at 7 PM EST as the Florida Gators visit the South Carolina Gamecocks in Columbia. Gators are 13-4 (7-5 ATS) while the Gamecocks are 8-8 (5-6 ATS) and two very different teams. This could be the last year for Carolina coach Darin Horn, as he has lost at home to Elon, Tennessee State and have no signature win to make this a special year. Florida on the other hand has lost to Ohio State (top "5") on the road by "7", Syracuse (#1) by "4" in the Carrier Dome, a surprising Rutgers team on "2" OT and tennessee again on the road. This is a strong top "20" veteran Gator squad playing a Carolina team that is having trouble scoring, rebounding and with turnovers. Florida is 7-3 ATS in their last "10" on the road against South Carolina and we see no change here!
Tony George
Denver / New England Under 50
Small lean on the under here. Denver will do a better job on defense after seeing the Pats offense once already run ramshod all over them in Mile High. Denver will attempt to pound the rock and we all know the Pats are soft up front and at LB against the run, and that will eat some clock. After 2 weeks off any offense is going to take awhile to get going, especially a timing style offense. All this has me thinking a lower scoring game than the last one.
Larry Ness
Arkansas -4
Mike Anderson is back at Arkansas, holding the job his mentor (Nolan Richardson) once held. He did excellent jobs at UAB and Missouri and his Razorbacks are 12-4 to open this year. This, despite losing forward Marshawn Powell (10.8-4.5 LY) to a season-ending injury after just two games (19.0-6.5). The current starting lineup features three guards, Wade (10.8), Scott (10.2-3.8-2.8) and Nobles (9.1-3.9-3.7) plus 6-7 freshman Abron (6.0-4.7) and 6-8 senior Sanchez (4.8-3.6). Freshman BJ Young (14.8) comes off the bench to lead all scorers plus fellow freshman guard Madden (7.4-3.8) chips in as well. Adding depth up front are 6-9 senior Waithe (6.5-3.6) and 6-10 freshman Mickelson (4.8-3.8) LSU enters 11-5, quite an accomplishment for a team which was only 11-21 all of last year. The 7-0 Hamilton (12.9-7.4) is the team's leading scorer and he's joined up front by the 6-7 Warren (8.4-5.2). The absence of 6-9 freshman O'Bryant (7.9-6.2) with a hand injury, is a big blow. Stringer (11.6) leads the backcourt in scoring and seems fine, after a fainting spell cost him five games earlier TY. Turner (9.2) is part of a trio of starting guards with freshman PG Hickey (8.9-3.9 APG) being the final 'piece.' Hickey struggled badly in LSU's SEC road debut at Alabama on Wednesday (69-53 loss) and one wonders how he'll handle Anderson's 'Forty Minutes of Hell.' Arkansas was awful at Ole Miss in its last game but the Razorbacks are back home here, where they've gone 12-1, outscoring opponents on average, 80.8-to-63.8 PPG. The Tigers have lost 15 of their last 17 conference road games and what should change here? My guess (bet?) is, NOTHING!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ San Francisco Under 47: Google News Play. The Niners know that they cannot beat the the Saints in a shootout and they have one weapon on their team to help them make sure that doesn't happen, and his name is Frank Gore. The Saints were 12th in the league vs the run and they will be taking on Frank Gore (1211 yards, 4.3 ypc and 8 TD's) and the Niners 8th ranked rushing offense. All tat running that the Niners will be doing will eat up plenty of clock as they know that is one way to keep this offense off the field. The Saints offense is number 1 on the year, but in their last 4 road games on grass field they were able to score just 23.8 ppg. The Saints do come up with a lot of big plays, but the feeling here is that the Niners very good defense will make this team work their way down the field with some time consuming drives. The Niners allow just 10.9 ppg at home and their home games overall have put up just 38.5 ppg. I really don't expect more than 44 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992 and 14-4 UNDER in home games after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
2 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans -3,5 over SAN FRANCISCO: Gonna take the square stand here. I feel that their is no way the niners will be able to score enough points to keep this game close. I expect the Niner running game to help keep the scoring down, but it will also give them fewer possessions and I don't see them scoring every time they have the ball. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a them them this year. Going up against the Niners defense, I don't expect the Saints to score every time as well, but they will put enough points on the board to get the cover here. I expect the Saints to win by a TD.
Dr Bob
College Opinion
MARQUETTE (-9 ½) over Pittsburgh
Pitt has really struggled offensively since point guard Travon Woodall got injured, as the Panthers are 0-6 ATS since then and enter this game on a 5 game losing streak. My ratings favor Marquette by 13 points so there is still value to be had going against the Panthers. I’ll lean with Marquette minus the points and I’d take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Harry Bondi
New Orleans / San Francisco Under 47
We are 10-1 this week in basketball and after a 3-0 sweep in last week's NFL Playoffs we are 13-3 in the postseason dating back to last season. Today we will WIN our College Basketball "Game of the Month." Call for details: 1.877.332.0077.The Saints have been firing on all cylinders, but they simply aren't quite as potent when they go on the road. Drew Brees' passer rating drops 22 points when New Orleans is away from the Superdome and the running game isn't as effective either, dropping from 5.8 yards per carry to 3.9. This Saints have only played one outdoor game in the last three months and that resulted in them scoring just 22 points against Tennessee. Today they'll face a San Fran team that is limited on offense and with shaky QB Alex Smith calling the signals, head coach Jim Harbaugh will be looking to slow the game down and take as much time off the clock as possible on offense. The Niners are an "under" team, going under in eight of their last 11 games and today will be no different.
WUNDERDOG
Ole Miss at Auburn
Pick: Over 124.5
The Ole Miss Rebels are off to an 11-5 start on the season and travel to play an Auburn team that has done very well at home at 9-1 for the season. Auburn has struggled for points in their last three games, but those were facing some elite teams in Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State. They have seen 10 of their other 13 games produce 65 points or more on the offensive end, which puts a low total in jeopardy of going over the top. The Tigers have played their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record OVER the total, and this series has played up-tempo with each of the last four producing a win on the OVER. Play this one OVER the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. CLIPPERS -2 over L.A. Lakers
What a great spot for the Clippers to really show the city and the rest of the NBA that they're the “new kids in town”. The Lakers are getting far too much credit after extending their winning streak to five and running their record to 9-4. What most bettors forget is that Kobe's team opened 0-2 and were 3-3 at one point. The five wins in a row came against Golden State, Memphis, Phoenix, Utah and Cleveland last night. All were at home with the exception of an OT win in Utah. The Lakers did all they could to hold off a furious rally by the Cavs last night. Now the Lakers will get right back to work and play their sixth game in eight nights. They're tired and they're overvalued. The Lakers have played 13 games to the Clippers eight. The Clip Joint are rested and after a bit of a tough start, they've now won four of five. Included in that run is wins over the Heat and Trail Blazers. The Clippers are getting very familiar with one another and all that talent is beginning to gel. This is a spot where actuality trumps reputation. Play L.A. Clippers -2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Minnesota +8½ over ATLANTA
The dismantling of the Timberwolves occurred a few years ago with the departure of Kevin Garnett and it's been downhill ever since. Not much attention has been given to the T-Wolves and that's going to allow them to sneak up on some teams and steal some wins, especially teams from the East, who rarely see them. Several items point in their favor and we'll start with Darko Milicic. Minnesota constantly fed the ball in the post to Milicic even though he was their least effective offensive player on a per-possession basis. Merely redistributing these possessions to players who can either score or pass will substantially improve the Minnesota offense. Second, they have Rick Adelman coaching, which means two things: (1) They have Adelman, and (2) they no longer have Kurt Rambis. Huge difference and it's showing. The T-Wolves are 4-4 over their past eight games. They took the Bulls to the wire recently and went into New Orleans last night and won by seven. They catch the complacent Hawks after Atlanta beat Charlotte by 30. The Hawks are now 8-4 but that's as misleading as their 44-wins from a season ago. The Hawks gave up more points than they scored in the regular season, went 10-17 after the All-Star break, lost one of the top sixth men in free agency and didn't do much to replace him. Last week they lost Al Horford and there's no way they're going to replace him. What we have here is an overpriced Hawks team playing an underpriced Wolves squad and the result is an overlay with the pup having a great shot to win this one straight up. Play: Minnesota +8½ (Risking 2.14 units). Play: Minnesota +346 (Risking 0.5 units).