Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 15,2011

Murray Hill Mike

Packers at Falcons
Play: Over

We have found TWO SYSTEMS that support a play on the Over. Play the Over with any team against the total (GREEN BAY) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. This system has cashed 78% (35-10) of the time over the last five seasons. Play the Over road teams against the total (GREEN BAY) with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game, after a win by 6 or less points. This system has cashed 70% (30-13) of the time over the last five seasons. Take the OVER

Wunderdog

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Baltimore Ravens will head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers for the third time this season as some have dubbed this game the “trilogy.” This is a big division rivalry, playing for the right to advance to the AFC Championship game next week. Fittingly, these teams won on each other’s field by a field goal during the regular season in two tough defensive struggles that averaged just 27 points per game. Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by less than a touchdown. So why would I be willing to lay points that have looked pretty big between these teams in the last three years? First, this is a playoff game and if you had that same feeling the last time these teams met in Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it was the wrong feeling as the Steelers won by 9 points, despite the close regular season games. Joe Flacco has thrown seven INTs vs. the Steelers in the seven meetings (compared to only six touchdowns). The Steelers have an opportunistic defense that has caused a lot of problems for the Ravens. Baltimore has committed 15 turnovers in the seven games over the last three years to the Steelers nine. They have also turned the ball over at least two times in five of the last six games. The last three times they played in Pittsburgh, the Ravens have turned the ball over nine times. They beat the Steelers this year by defeating Charlie Batch, but Big Ben has a playoffs pedigree, and Pittsburgh has covered their last three playoff games here. As much as this is a rivalry, Big Ben has won six straight vs. the Ravens. Three of Baltimore's four losses this season came on the road and in division games, they are just 2-4 ATS this season. The Steelers had an extra week to rest and prepare and that can make all the difference here. I like the Steelers in this one.

Marc Lawrence

Oklahoma State at Colorado
Prediction: Colorado

If you thought last Saturday?s 89-76 Colorado upset of then-No. 9 Missouri was a fluke, think again. In their final season of play before moving from the Big 12 to the Pac-12, the Buffaloes have rebounded from a ragged 2-3 start to win 11 of their last 12 games and emerge as a darkhorse conference contender. Led by sophomore guard Alec Burks (career-high 36 points vs. Mizzou), CU will look to extend its recent series dominance of the Cowboys: 10-4 ATS, including 5-0 ATS when the Buffs own a .600 or greater record. Despite those solid numbers, a 12-point loss to Okie State last season contributed to CU?s failure to finish above .500 ? the Buffs closed at 15-16 overall ? and the hosts own a terrific 8-3 ATS log in their previous 11 home games when playing with last-season conference revenge. The Pokes? money-burning 0-8 SU and ATS mark away versus a league foe off an away game seals the deal. In a league where home court advantage has proven to be huge, we?ll take another Big 12 host with plenty of reasons to play. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.

Jim Feist

New Jersey Nets vs. Portland Trailblazers
Play: New Jersey Nets +9½

Not good news in Portland: Trail Blazers star Brandon Roy will have arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees next week. The team says there is no timetable for the All-Star guard's return. Roy has missed 16 games this season because of soreness in his knees, which he has said is caused by a lack of cartilage. This is also a tough situational spot, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, plus the second of a back to back spot. They are 1-2 ATS the last 3 times in the second of a back to back situation, while the Nets are 4-2 ATS the last six times they've been in this spot. Play the Nets.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH –3 over Baltimore

Rivalry? Yes. Evenly matched? On the surface, yes. Are their games usually close? Six of past seven games have been decided by a field goal, including both this year, so it has to be a yes. Does any of that matter for this game? Absolutely not. Each game brings different circumstances and because of the history here, the current records of these two combatants and Baltimore’s decisive win against overmatched Kansas City last week, we become the beneficiaries. The Steelers are rugged. They gave up the least amount of points (240) in the NFL this past season, an average of just 14.5 per game. In their final seven games, they gave up more than 16 points just once and held four of their opponents under double-digits. Pittsburgh’s run defense is exceptional, having relinquished just 1,004 yards on the ground, the 3rd lowest amount in history over a 16-game schedule. Baltimore could not solve this stellar stop unit either, having rushed for just 116 yards in the two games played earlier. That clearly puts the game on the suspect shoulders of Joe Flacco. With an aging receiving corps, an offensive line that does not protect particularly well, the Ravens on six days rest compared to Pittsburgh’s 13 and with Baltimore’s current’ 0-5 run versus counterpart Ben Roethlisberger, is that a comforting place to be? We think not and with the Steelers being better on both sides of the ball, a rather convincing win would not surprise. Play: Pittsburgh –3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Green Bay +1.23 over ATLANTA Pinnacle

Both teams are talented and both are hard to dislike. The Falcons are no-nonsense. They play hard and fair and efficiently. They own an incredible 20-2 record on this field under the guidance of QB Matt Ryan. They are well coached and they are capable of beating any team in this league on any given day. However, the Packers are hot and when you have a hot team that can play defence the way this unit can, taking any points being offered becomes the prudent choice. As mentioned here last week, Green Bay has not lost a game by more than four points this entire season. That includes a game where the Packers went toe-to-toe with Atlanta while visiting here, back in late November, before succumbing by a 20-17 count on a last second field goal. Despite losing, Aaron Rodgers was 26 of 35 passing for 344 yards. In that game, Green Bay ran for just 77 yards that day. With the sudden emergence of rookie James Starks (123 rushing yards vs. Eagles last week), the proficient arm of Rodgers and this solid defense, Green Bay offers enticing value. Play: Green Bay +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

Brent Brooks

Temple PK

The Dukes have been on a five game run but haven't faced a challenge like this.

Khalif Wyatt stepped in for his first start subbing for the injured Juan Fernandez against St. Bonaventure and played well. If Juan returns for this game, his minutes may be shared and knowing Wyatt is coming off a confidence building performance helps our cause.

The Dukes of Duquesne shoot the three very well but are going up against a stingy perimeter defense. If forced to get creative with their post offense against the combination of LaVoy Allen and Michael Eric, the Dukes could slip into a scoring drought or two.

As much as the Dukes want to win this game and make a statement in the A10 - the Owls will be too much for them. With no spread to cover, we're grabbing Temple here for a 1* Free Play.

S.Miss -2

Much was made of UCF's start to the season but most of the games were either at home or against weak teams like Stetson and UMass. They just lost a conference game at Houston and now travel to face Gary Flowers and the Golden Eagles at Reed Green Coliseum.

Yes, Marcus Jordan is a good player - but most of his prolific scoring occurred against the aforementioned weak non conference schedule. Southern Miss has faced a tougher schedule, succeeded at an invitational and has a tremendous big man in Flowers. Why are they only laying 2 here? Its that shiny 14-1 record of UCF's - the allure of their unbeaten status still has residual impact on the line.

Love the Golden Eagles here. Another 1* Freebie for Saturday.

James Patrick Sports

Kings vs. Pistons

Both of these teams had road games Friday night. Sacramento is (4-2) against the number when unrested this season, while Detroit is just (10-21) against the number over the last (1+) seasons playing the second of back-to-back games. Pistons are distracted by impending dismantling of the roster while Sacramento showing some signs of improving. PG Tyreke Evans has missed time with an ankle injury, but Beno Udrih (14 ppg, 49%) is a hard-trying replacement, while PF Carl Landry (15 ppg, 54% off the bench in January) and rookie DeMarcus Cousins (18 ppg, 9 rpg last 8 games) are stepping up. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Saturday Night NBA action is Sacramento Kings.

Rob Vinciletti

Florida Atlantic vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Florida Atlantic +2.5

FAU has started out 5-0 in conference play this year and is getting no respect as a dog here to a Western Kentucky team that is under .500 and clearly not as good as in years past. WKU. is 1-6 ats vs winning teams this year and 1-5 off 3 ats losses. They have lost 5 straight and are 0-5 ats after allowing 80 or more in their last game. Florida Atlantic has played well this year and are an impressive 7-2 vs losing teams. Look for them to at the very least cover the spread as a live dog here tonight.

John Ryan

Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Orlando Magic -7

3* graded play on the Orlando Magic as they take to the road to face the Minnesota timberwolves set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Orlando will win this game by more than seven points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-5 for 86% ATS winners since 2005. Play against any team that is an average shooting team making between 43.5-45.5% of their shots facing an average defensive team allowing 43.5-45.5% of their shots in a game involving two good rebounding teams posting a +3 to +5.5 rebound per game differential. Minnesota may have a solid offensive minded team, but they haver no defensive presence whatsoever. They rank 29th in the NBA in scoring defense allowing 107.9 points per game. Orlando is the 6th best defensive team in the NBA allowing 94.1 points per game. The Magic will be focused on defense and rebounding missed shots to get into transition quickly looking for easy layups and wide open 15-foot jumpers. Orlando gets an easy win.

Tom Freese

Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Toronto Raptors +4½

Washington is 10-27 straight up this year. The Wizards 12-27 ATS their last 39 games as home favorites. The Wizards 8-22 ATS their last 30 games as home favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Washington is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games. Toronto is 13-25 straight up this year are 4-1 ATS on Saturday. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS when playing with no rest. Toronto is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40%.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Oregon State Beavers +5

Motivated by 3 straight defeats, look for the Beavers to get back in the win column against a USC squad it swept last season. The Trojans are just 2-5 when playing away from home this season, and they have not been a good investment as a favorite. They are just 7-16-4 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or less points. The Beavers, meanwhile, have been a lethal dog. They are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when catching points and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less. Bet the Beavers.

Black Widow

1* on LSU +21.5

The LSU Tigers are simply catching too many points Saturday against the Kentucky Wildcats. We'll take advantage and hop on this underdog showing excellent value this afternoon. Kentucky is a solid team this year at 13-3, but they are not 22 points better than LSU at home Saturday. The Wildcats are outscoring opponents by 16.8 PPG this season, while LSU is outscoring opponents by 5.1 PPG during their 10-7 start. The Tigers get after it defensively, allowing 61.9 points/game and 38.3% shooting to rank among the nation's best at stopping opponents. LSU is a brilliant 42-18 ATS (+22.2 Units) off a home win against a conference rival since 1997. The Tigers are 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) after allowing 55 points or less since 1997. LSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC foes. The Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC opponents. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kentucky. Take LSU and the points.

Chip Chirimbes

UNLV vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force +10½

Back to the Mountain West where the UNLV Runnin' Rebels (who don't run so much anymore) invade the much improved Air Force Falcons (10-5, #6-4) who have already matched their conference win total from each of the past two seasons. Rebels' spirits down off of loses to BYU and San Diego State. Take AIR FORCE!

Dave Price

1 Unit on Washington State Cougars +1.5

Following a big upset win over Washington, Stanford is primed for its first home loss of the season tonight. Washington State will no doubt be out for blood after a loss at Cal. The Cougars return all 5 starters from a team that split with the Cardinal last season. Keep in mind that Washington State only lost by 2 points at Stanford. Wouldn't you agree that odds makers appear to be begging bettors to lay the 1.5 points here? We won't bite. Consider that plays against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 (STANFORD) after 3 straight games where both it and its opponents scored 70 points or less, against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in its last game, are 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Take the Cougars.