Jack Jones
Penn State +19
The Penn State Nittany Lions continue getting no respect from odds makers despite beating back-to-back ranked teams. Penn State has knocked off two of the Big Ten's premier programs in the past week, and Ohio State (17-0, 4-0) hasn't quite looked like a juggernaut during its three January wins. The Buckeyes have been tested, but rallied to win 73-68 at Iowa on Jan. 4, defeated Minnesota 67-64 on Sunday and knocked off Michigan 68-64 on Wednesday to match the 1990-91 team for the third-best start in school history. The Nittany Lions beat Michigan State 66-62 followed by another home victory over Illinois by a final of 57-55 to improve to 10-6 on the season.
This play falls under a system that is 83-41 (67%) since 1997. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PENN ST) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less. Each of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 14 points or less. Penn State is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Nittany Lions are 8-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons. Ohio State is 0-8 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making <=42% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Bet Penn State Saturday.
Info Plays
3* Kings +6
Reasons why the Kings will Cover:
1) The Kings are 10-0 ATS in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
2) Play against - home teams (Pistons) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing on back-to-back days, as its 151-101 over the last 5 seasons.
3) The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Ben Burns
New Orleans @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte +1
The Bobcats have been quite good to me since the coaching change. I recognized that they would be playing a "faster tempo" with Silas than they were with Brown. In Silas' first game, before the O/U lines had been properly adjusted, I won with the 'over.' Since then, I've successfully picked my spots to back them. This looks like another favorable spot to do so.
Both teams played on the road last night. Charlotte lost by five (99-94) at Boston, covering as +8 underdogs. New Orleans won by five (110-105) at Houston. The Hornets had been listed as slight underdogs.
The Hornets saw their game go to Overtime though, so they had to exert some extra energy. The fact that they had to rally from a double-digit second half deficit, just to force OT, also figures to have made things a little extra gruelling.
Note that both Chris Paul and David West were "limping on sore ankles." Also, note that Emaka Okafor had both his knees wrapped (and his feet soaking in ice water) after the game.
Hornets coach Monty Williams was quoted as saying: "We had some guys playing hurt. They just found ways to make plays."
It should also be mentioned that the Hornets also saw Wednesday's game go to OT. That makes this their third game in four days, with both the first ones having gone into extra time. The fact that they won both games may make having a "letdown" that much easier here.
With another 'cover' last night, the Bobcats are now 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) their last five. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark here at Charlotte.
Playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss at New Orleans, consider backing the Bobcats one more time.
David Chan
St. Louis Blues @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks
I bet value where I see it and, and I believe the Sharks offer us fantastic line value here as they play desperation hockey in an attempt to snap a six-game losing streak.
Both teams have winning records because of quick starts, but each has been inconsistent of late.
Jaroslav Halak starts for the Blues; he's 1-1-0 with a 2.00 goals against average vs. San Jose this season; St. Louis is just 2-4-3 in its last nine to the "Shark Tank".
On Thursday the Sharks lost 5-2 to the Oilers; the last time San Jose lost seven in a row was back in 2005; good news though as leading goal scorer Logan Couture, who missed that loss, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight (note the Sharks are 9-4 [+2.4 units] after a loss by two-goals or more in their previous contest).
All signs point to the SAN JOSE SHARKS as the sharp wager in this contest.
Nick Parsons
Rangers @ Canadiens
PICK: Over 5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
The Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in just 16 of 44 this season (with one "push"); on the 13th they beat the Vancouver Canucks 1-0.
Important to recognize though that New York has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in six of 11 this year after scoring one-goal or less in its previous contest.
On the other side of the ice are the Montreal Canadiens have seen the total go "over" the number in just 12 of 39 this year (with five "pushes"); on the 12th they were hammered 5-2 by the Penguins.
Interesting to note though that the Habs have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last six at the Bell Center.
Bottom line: The Rangers play with revenge here after losing 2-1 to the Canadiens at Madison Square Garden last Tuesday; in fact they're just 1-2-2 in their last five trips to Montreal (the last trip there was an embarrassing 6-0 beatdown).
Carey Price is likely to get the start for the Habs tonight, after giving up all five-goals to the Pens on Wednesday; he has a career 3.35 GAA vs. the Rangers.
A couple of the leagues stingiest teams have a break out game and put the "biscuit in the basket" at a prodigious rate this evening; consider a second look at the OVER in this situation.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +166 over FLORIDA
We’ll stick with our philosophy of not trying to predict the outcomes of games but rather looking for value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. The Devils have the worst record in the NHL but they might just offer up the most value because of that awful record. Never has the Panthers been this high a favorite over the Devils and you could probably count on one hand the numbers of times they’ve been –175 favorite over anyone in the last decade. What we do know is that the Devils are playing much better and that was bound to happen, as this team has way too much talent to be where they are. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over the Bolts in which they scored 11 times. A couple of wins does wonders for a team's psyche and the Devils are feeling w hole lot better with a lot less pressure. Prior to those two wins against Tampa they lost back-to-back games against Philly but they were not outplayed in either game and you can see this team slowly getting its confidence back and don’t think for a second that they’re not dangerous. Regardless of the outcome, we’re getting outstanding value on this underachieving guest and will continue to monitor them very closely. Definite overlay. Play: New Jersey +166 (Risking 2 units).
Calgary +120 over TORONTO
Whoa there Leaf fans. Yes, the Maple Leafs are playing better and the direction this team is going looks somewhat promising for the first time in years but there’s still lots to dislike about them here. First, they sent down goaltender James Reimer because J.S. Giguere is back and it looks like Giguere will get the start. The Leafs are ruining Jonas Gustavsson and will go with their third best option. Giguere is maybe the 45th best goaltender in the league and chances are he won’t be sharp after missing nearly a month. Secondly, the Leafs return home from a joyous road trip in which they beat Atlanta, L.A. and San Jose before losing to Phoenix and that trip could cause them to be flat here. The Leafs were buried in Calgary a month ago and despite losing four of its last five, the Flames are really playing much better. They’re coming off a 3-2 win last night in Ottawa but that score is flattering to the Sens, as Calgary took a 3-0 lead into the third before a couple of late goals made it close. So, in a game in which the Leafs return home with a rusty and very average goaltender, look for the Flames to come in here and play another very good game with a great chance to win. Play: Calgary +120 (Risking 2 units).