AC Dinero
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Green Bay Packers +7
NFC Divisional Game The Packers looked like the Packers we expected all season in the 2nd half last weekend. Was it because the Redskins defense isn't very good? Partly. But GB got back to doing what it does best: run the football. They will need to do that against the Cardinals who come in off a bye. Arizona has the look of a super bowl contender. How much will that beatdown to Seattle in week 17 be in their minds? I think it will be if the Packers get off to a good start. Arizona pounded this GB team just 3 weeks ago. It's tough to be a team twice in less than a month. Plus, anytime you have a QB like Aaron Rodgers and your getting a TD, its tough to pass up. Look for this to be a close one that comes down to the wire.
Heath Mac
Packers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -7
We had the Cardinals playing in (and probably winning) the Superbowl from 8-10 weeks ago. We still think they are the best team in the country, just in front of the Panthers and Pats. All things going to plan, we should see a cracker of an NFC conference championship next week should Carolina and Arizona both get through. In the meantime, the Cards have the suddenly in form Packers visiting this weekend. If there is one way to go broke capping sports and NFL in particular, it is reacting to what happened last week with your next picks.
Prior to last week’s 35-18 win over the Redskins, the Packers looked in trouble. They’d put up just 21 points in total against the Vikings (13 points) and Cards (8 points). The secondary has remained solid, allowing just 20.2 ppg (ranked 12th) but the one time Superbowl favourites have struggled all season. In fact, they own the 31st ranked passing offense on the road, averaging just 184.9 yds per game. Against a fresh and potent Cardinal’s secondary that allows just 19.6 ppg (ranked 7th) and 209.1 ypg in the air at home (ranked 4th).
When we factor in the week’s rest for Arizona and the extent of sore and injured players for the Packers, this looks like a tough game for Green Bay. Arizona are putting up 30.8 ppg, ranked second in the nation behind Carolina and beat the Packers 38-8 just two weeks ago. It was one thing to put up 35 points against a pretty average Redskin’s secondary and hold their predictable offense to 18 points, but this is a whole different ball game. Although the free TD with the better QB is tempting, any way we look at it, we just cant see the Packers winning this one. Cards win this by 10 points.
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 match ups between these sides.
Vernon Croy
Green Bay / Arizona Over 50
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have this game flying over the posted total Sunday night. We had the Packers ATS last week, and their offense finally started to come together. However, that was against a very bad defensive team. Now the Packers play one of the better defensive teams in the NFL. However, they will make the necessary adjustments having faced the Cardinals in week 16. We actually had the Cardinals ATS as my 7-Unit Smash in that 38-8 rout against the Packers, and I know these teams extremely well. That was a huge situational play for me, so you can throw what you saw in that game out the window. The Packers will move the ball much better this time around, and Arizona will also get their share of points but it will be a much closer game. The O/U is 5-0 for the Cardinals in their last 5 playoff games and 35-16 in the Cardinals last 51 games after putting up less than 15 points in their previous game. Arizona averaged the second most ppg in the NFL with 30.6 ppg this season, and the Packers offense is starting to turn it on at the right time, since head coach Mike McCarthy took over the play calling once again.
Raphael Esparza
Szpilka vs. Wilder Under 9.5 Rounds -300
Heavyweight fight Saturday night in Brooklyn, New York, and we get to see the WBC champ Deontay Wilder. Wilder has some heavy hands, and I see the champ having no problem against Artur Szpilka. It wouldn't shock me to see Wilder knocking him out early. Wilder is 35-0 with 34 KO's, and the last time Szpilka fought in New York he got KO'd by Bryant Jennings. If Wilder can establish his jab early that will help him out and in the middle of the fight. I see Wilder taking him out and I'm predicting a knockout between the rounds 6 through 8.
Wunderdog
Green Bay @ Arizona
Pick: Green Bay +7
On the surface this looks like a huge blow-out in the making. But what appears obvious oftentimes turns out not to be the case. The Green Bay Packers certainly have a bad taste in their mouths after coming to the desert a few short weeks ago and getting trampled 38-8. A lot has changed since that game as Green Bay has gotten healthier. They have shored-up the weakness in the offensive line (just one sack allowed last week), and have gotten healthier on defense as well. What is most notable, is that Aaron Rodgers seemed to recover his swagger last week, and the Green Bay offense moved the ball a whole lot better. The most shocking part and under-the-radar aspect of this Packers team is just how well the defense has played. There are eight teams left in the playoffs, and Green Bay is second in holding opponents to 20 points or fewer, as they have done so 11 times on the season. Only the Kansas City Chiefs' well documented defense has done so more often. The Cardinals have had a great season, but their last game was rather eye opening. They allowed a season-high 36 points to Seattle, while scoring a season-low six, even though they still had something to play for. The Cardinals won the last meeting 38-8, but generated just 349 yards of total offense in the game. Let's not forget that Seattle put 38 points on Minnesota at Minnesota earlier then came back to score just 10 last week. Teams that beat an opponent by 18 points or more in the regular season are just 6-13 ATS when they meet in the playoffs, and just 1-5 ATS if it was from week 12 on - not including week 17 where teams often don't have anything to play for. The Packers are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing 90 or fewer yards rushing and 50-35 ATS on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND -4½ over Kansas City
The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL and have seemingly peaked at the perfect time to go on a Super Bowl run. They've won 11 in a row straight up and they also went 8-3 against the spread over that span. The Chiefs were the most dominant victor on Wild Card weekend with their 30-0 slaughter in Houston against the NFL's third ranked defense. Alex Smith managed another game with 173 yards in the air while throwing one touchdown and an interception. The Chiefs were able to churn it out on the ground with 141 net yards. The K.C. defense was all over the Texans pitiful offense forcing five turnovers and making Brian Hoyer's life miserable. With all the momentum on their side, the Chiefs will now head north to New England for a Divisional Round match-up with the Patriots.
The best thing about the playoffs is that there are four games going all at different times. Nobody misses a play, which is unlike a typical Sunday where we can watch seven games at once. The reason that’s so good is because there are more overreactions during the playoffs than during the regular season. This is one of those overreactions. K.C. defeated a punch drunk team that had no clue whatsoever how to prepare or perform in a playoff game. K.C. didn’t win that game, Houston lost it with five turnovers and allowing the opening kickoff to be returned for a TD. Despite the huge possession edge for the Chiefs, they had a mere four more first downs than the Texans and only had 314 total yards despite the five turnovers. At the half and despite the Texans not being able to move five yards, K.C. still had not scored an offensive TD. They had that kickoff return plus two long FG’s to take a 13-0 lead into the locker room. Hell, that game could have easily been 0-0 at the half.
We could on and on about the Chiefs weak schedule and their unimpressive performances but will refrain from doing so because it’s not very relevant here. What’s relevant is that Kansas City is getting far too much credit by this market because of what the scoreboard said last week. Anyone that faded Kansas City knew five minutes in that they had no shot and that’s not because the Chiefs were good. It was because the Texans looked they were playing their first game in franchise history on some remote island with nobody watching. Alex Smith and his 2-yard passes may have worked against the dregs of this league but it’s not going to work against the Patriots. The Chiefs will not win or cover here with Alex Smith throwing for his customary 140 yards.
The Pats are stumbling and bumbling as they get ready to host yet another playoff game in Foxboro where they've never lost a Divisional Round match-up. New England lost their last two regular season games, falling to the Jets in overtime after the coin toss fiasco and a Week 17 double digit loss in Miami that they just didn't show up for. This is a “what you have you done for me lately” market and that’s something we can take advantage of here. The Pats have been decimated by injuries and they are now dealing with the Chandler Jones situation. Jones was involved in a bizarre scene at the Foxboro Public Safety Building on Sunday morning. It's been reported he had a bad reaction to synthetic marijuana, which isn't illegal in Norfolk County but the league will investigate the incident anyway. Jones expects to play Sunday but Coach Bill Belichick is clearly annoyed with his defensive lineman's off the field distraction. All of these factors have the Pats stock at its lowest in quite some time and we're buyers.
While Kansas City's resume coming into this game looks impressive we're suggesting they are frauds. As mentioned, everything went right last week in Houston but the market sees the end result. A lot has been made this week about the Chiefs ability to get pressure on Brian Hoyer who was sacked three times, fumbled twice and threw four interceptions. Well, he stinks and so do the Texans. Houston won an awful division that was plagued by major injuries all season. Those pondering which team to back will be influenced by the media suggesting that Tom Brady might be on his back all day with New England's makeshift offensive line unable to protect him. The media has put the Patriots on upset alert this week and again, we're buyers.
Andy Reid versus Bill Belichick = Mike Tyson playing Bill Gates in a game of scrabble.
Alex Smith versus Tom Brady = Mike Tyson playing Bill Gates in a game of scrabble.
BB has been salty as hell all week and the Chiefs are about to feel his wrath. Give Belichick a clipboard and two weeks to prepare for the most predictable offense in the league and the result isn’t likely going to be pretty for the visitor. We now get the Brady/Belichick combo that has never lost this round at home, spotting a cheap price because the Chiefs beat the Texans last week and have won 11 straight over a bunch of non-playoff teams? K.C. got over a big hump last Saturday with their first playoff win and cover since 1993, an eight game drought. Reid personally won his first post-season game since 2009 and it was his first as the Chiefs bench boss. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have won 21 playoff games in the 14 years they have been together. Rarely do we get the Patriots at a deflated price but that’s the case here and we’re not about to miss it. New England has defeated much better teams in this round than this grossly overrated bunch and they have done so with less to work with than they have for this game. 4½-points in New England? Damn straight we’re spotting it.
ARIZONA -7 over Green Bay
The Pack are back on track baby! Aaron Rodgers was grinning from ear to ear as he threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns in Landover last Sunday Night. The Packers overcame an 11-point early deficit and scored 17 straight points to take a half time lead. They left D.C. with a 35-18 victory and another playoff road victory. Green Bay’s O finally clicked while Davante Adams and James Jones finally started catching the balls that were thrown to them. The Packers passing attack looked to be in great form again with Rodgers completely exploiting the Washington pass defense. The two-headed running monster of Eddie Lacy and James Starks split carries down the middle while going over 100 total yards on the ground. The Packers strong showing on the road was the most watched game of the weekend and the market liked what they saw. However, the oddsmakers were unfazed by the Packers showing, thus they’re giving Rodgers and the Pack a converted TD.
The Cardinals sat silently last week waiting for their pray. They may not have won the Power Ball lottery but this matchup is a fine consolation prize for the NFC West champions. The Red Birds pecked the Packers to pieces in their last meeting just three weeks ago. We're not sure what's changed since then. Arizona lost their Week 17 home game to Seattle 36-6 but we put NO stock in that result whatsoever. The Cards had an outside shot of winning the number one seed but it was unlikely Carolina would have much trouble clinching versus Tampa. Bruce Arians is probably the smartest coach in the league and he wasn't going to give away anything in that game.
While Green Bay's win at Washington might look good to most, if you watched that game you can't feel good about these Packers. They still can't stop the run. The Redskins averaged over six yards a carry but after they fell behind, they totally abandoned the ground game. Randall Cobb has been exposed for what he is; a fine number two receiver who does his best work in the slot. The reality is even if the Packers somehow take a lead in this game the Cardinals D will not crumble under pressure. The Cardinals are poised to win and they’re poised to win big. They hold an advantage everywhere on the field except quarterback but only one of these two pivots is in the MVP discussion and he doesn't wear #12. Carson Palmer might be the most underrated starting QB in the league and we have no problem backing him and the much better team taking the field Saturday Night. After waking up against the Redskins last week, Aaron Rodgers and this offense taking seven points might look appealing but we're not falling for it.
Randall the Handle
Chiefs (12-5) at Patriots (12-4)
The Chiefs’ 11 straight wins is an impressive run in today’s NFL. While we don’t want to detract from the accomplishment, we can’t help but challenge its validity. A decisive 29-13 win at Denver back on Nov. 15 certainly jumps off the page, but that was a divisional opponent seeking revenge off an earlier bizarre finish in which Kansas City saw a seven-point lead become a seven-point deficit over a span of nine seconds late in the fourth quarter. After that one, KC’s final seven-regular season opponents did not include a winning team. That allowed the Chiefs to make this post-season and as luck would have it, draw an opening playoff game against the inadequate Texans. Kudos for Kansas City’s 30-0 win but that game saw an opening kickoff returned for a touchdown, spotting the Chiefs a lead they would never relinquish, aided by a doe-in-the-headlights performance by Houston QB Brian Hoyer (15 of 34, 0 touchdowns, 4 intercepts). Therein lies the problem for the visiting Chiefs. This is a team that relies on the mistakes of others for their success. It is a quantum leap to go from a bumbling Hoyer to an ace like Tom Brady and the experience of the Patriots. Granted, New England wasn’t sharp down the stretch but injuries played a huge role in that drop off. A two-week break not only allows for some of the wounded to get back on the field but also grants an extra week of healing for guys nursing normal 16-game bumps and bruises. It may actually be the Chiefs that are in worse physical shape than their hosts as key guys like WR Jeremy Maclin and defensive stars Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are hurting. We sense that New England is not feared the same way as it has been over the past few seasons heading into the playoffs and as a result, we get a reduced price for this one. This will be the first time in eight post-season games, dating back to the 2009 season, that the Patriots have been less than a seven-point favourite for a home playoff game. Better teams than this guest have failed to stay within range. TAKING: PATRIOTS -5
Packers (11-6) at Cardinals (13-3)
Arizona could be the most complete team in these playoffs. The Cardinals operate the top ranked offence in the league. They also own the fifth best defence in the league while having the second most takeaways of all 32 teams. They are well coached, have a good mix of young talent and smart veterans and are led by a dangerous quarterback. The Cards completely destroyed the Packers on this field just three weeks ago in a 38-8 one-sided affair which preceded Green Bay’s season-ending loss to the Vikings, a game that decided the NFC North. There is little doubt that Arizona has the ability to win here. But in a rare occurrence, the Packers are being offered a boat load of points. The only time that Green Bay has been spotted this big of a handicap with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback was in last year’s NFC title game that saw Seattle win a miraculous 28-22 overtime game with the Packers covering after receiving 8½ points. Rodgers may not have the most supportive roster around him this year but he’s still one of the premier players in this league and is more than capable of carrying a team on his arm. Besides, it’s not like the Packers are chopped liver. While they may not have been in their best form down the stretch, Green Bay still managed to defeat four teams this season that made this year’s tournament (Seahawks, Redskins, Vikings and Chiefs). Rodgers knows how to win games. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for 36-year old Carson Palmer, who has not won a playoff game in his career (0-2). While the early meeting cannot be completely ignored, it is rare for adequate teams to get trampled consecutively (see Minnesota-Seattle last week). Four turnovers led to 28 Arizona points in that one and the likelihood of that happening again is rare. Perhaps it is false advertising but the Packers appeared to have regained their mojo in last week’s 35-18 playoff win at Washington. Regardless, taking a full touchdown with a team that has this kind of pedigree and a top QB is a no-brainer for us. We’ll let the ‘Cards’ fall where they may. TAKING: PACKERS +7
Bill Biles
Cardinals/Packers Over 49.5
Both these teams have offenses that are capable of putting up 30 points. I think Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers both have huge games in this one and this will be the highest scoring game of the divisional round.
Jim Feist
Warriors vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +7
A pair of strong defensive teams clash and it's a high total. Detroit is No. 9 in the NBA at defending the three-pointer while Golden State is No. 1. The Pistons are home ranked No. 9 in points allowed and will look to control the pace with their strong rebounding ability. Golden State is 3,000 miles from home, their 5th road game in the last 7 contests. Everyone is gunning for the defending champs, as we saw in Denver this week, losing at the Nuggets. The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games playing on one days rest. The Pistons are 18-7-1 ATS playing on one day of rest and on a 20-6-1 ATS run at home.
Joseph D'Amico
Packers vs. Cardinals
Play: Packers +7
Arizona beat Green Bay, 38-8 back in December. But this isn't the same Packers team. Green Bay got a big dose and an even bigger look at Arizona that game and will come in into this contest prepared. Aaron Rodgers has a ton of playoff experience while Carson Palmer has never won a post-season game. The GB ground game was non-existent but lately, Lacy, Starks, Cobb, and Rodgers have come alive and will keep the 'Zona defense honest. Despite all their stellar statistics, the Cardinals have crushed bettors at home this season. The Packers "D" held AP and the Vikings and then Kirk Cousins and the 'Skins. Green Bay is 8-3 ATS their L11 playoff games, 5-1 ATS their L6 road playoff games, 4-1 ATS their L5 overall. Arizona is 1-4 ATS their L5 games played in January, 1-5 ATS their L6 at home, and 1-5 ATS their L6 vs. teams with a winning record. Too many points to lay here.
DAVE COKIN
EAST CAROLINA AT CENTRAL FLORIDA
PLAY: CENTRAL FLORIDA -4.5
There are a few same season revenge games on tap today, which is an aspect of college hoop analysis that I enjoy breaking down, and usually with decent results. The rematch between East Carolina and Central Florida is one of those matchups.
UCF was a narrow winner the first time around, as they went on the road and got away with a 71- 68 win at East Carolina. I think the Knights have a great chance to sweep the series with what might be an easier win today.
First off, there’s the Jeff Lebo factor. Let’s just say Lebo has not exactly been scintillating when looking to avenge a conference home loss. I have access to records going back to 2002, so while that’s not the entire Lebo ledger as a head coach, it’s pretty close. Since that time, Lebo is only 1-15 trying to get even on the road for a home defeat in regular season play. Since arriving at East Carolina, the record is a depressing 0-7. Note that’s straight up rather than against the spread, but with this game priced as it is, I’m basically looking to grab the outright winner, and Lebo’s history suggests his Pirates aren’t really likely to do well here.
ECU is not playing well right now regardless. The loss to UCF got the current 0-4 run started, and the Pirates are still winless for the season in road games.
In the first meeting, Tennessee transfer AJ Davis had a huge game for UCF, and the 6’9″ sophomore is putting together a nice season for the Knights. Davis has been doing an exceptional job of getting to the foul line, and when he gets to the stripe, he’s cashing in on roughly 80% of his tosses. East Carolina is vulnerable in the paint, and with all the size UCF can put on the floor, this figures to be an issue for the Pirates again today.
Neither of these teams figures to be playing past the AAC tournament in early March, and in terms of overall skill, there’s not a great deal of difference. But the matchup appears favorable to UCF, I would give them a bit of an edge in the current form category, and there’s that ugly Lebo road revenge stat to boot. I might have to sweat the points here, but it’s reasonable enough for me to take the stance on Central Florida to get this one in the win column.
Sleepyj
Milwaukee +6
expect some type of a run out of this Bucks team this year..My gut feeling is this is the time they atart to rattle of wins or get us covers...This team is playing very well right now..Problem for the Bucks over the last month is the schedule they have faced..They played top teams night in and night out for about a full 30 days...They came up less then .500, but the basketball they played was rather good...This team IMO is rolling right now on offense and defense...They just picked up a win a last night, but now take on the Hornets in Charlotte...Hornets played last night on the road as well, but they came up short Vs. the Pelicans..These teams played a while back and the Hornets won that game...Hornets had Al Jefferson in that game and Lamb..Hornets might be without Lamb here tonight..Al Jefferson is - OUT...Jefferson last game when these teams faced off went out of the game early..So it's natural for a team to step up when the star goes out...We can rule that here as we know Jefferson has been sidelined for a month now...Bucks in that game had issues as well....Bayless was starting for this team and so was OJ Mayo...I doubt we see Mayo play tonight, although it's possible after the Bucks just played last night and the starters played heavy minutes..I'd say Mayo is maybe 60% going to sit though...The issue for the Hornets is the defense in this game..Coming off a barn burner last night how will they defend all 5 players for the Bucks tonight?..The Bucks have legit threats on offense and defense at all 5 positions...Bucks Antetokounmpo is playing great right now..The entire team is feeding off his high level of play..Bucks play 4 games on the road now..They get a nice little rest before they play the Heat next..I think they show up and go all out for the entire game here...I'll grab the +6 here tonight and won't blink at this one.
Stephen Nover
Bucks vs. Hornets
Play: Under 200
Back on Nov. 29 the Bucks and Hornets hooked up in Charlotte. There were a combined 169 points scored with the Hornets winning, 87-82. That game went under the total by 32 1/2 points. While I don't expect the total to fall anywhere close to that figure - it was the Bucks' second-lowest score of the season - I do anticipate a final that stays comfortably under this total.
Consider the circumstances.
Both teams were in action last night. The Bucks beat the Hawks in overtime at home. Giannis Anteokounmpo may have had his finest game with 28 points and 16 rebounds. He also played 50 minutes. Khris Middleton logged a season-high 45 minutes. Point guard Michael Carter-Williams went 41 minutes and is likely going to have to play big minutes again today. That's because the Bucks are thin in the backcourt with Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez out. Swingman O.J. Mayo isn't likely to play either after he aggravated a hamstring injury last night.
This leaves only fourth-string Tyler Ennis to back up Carter-Williams, who always has been more about defense than offense. The Bucks aren't that strong offensively to begin with ranking 24th in scoring and 28th in offensive rebounding. Milwaukee is shooting 26 percent from 3-point range in its last five games. This marks the Bucks' fourth game in five nights. Fatigue is going to weigh heavily with the Bucks.
Charlotte carries a high fatigue rating, too, playing its third game in four nights and off a tough 109-107 road loss against New Orleans on Friday. The Hornets' two top players, Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum, each logged more than 40 minutes versus the Pelicans. Charlotte's inside scoring is down with Al Jefferson out and its backcourt firepower takes a hit if Jeremy Lamb has to miss a second straight game with a toe injury. He's Charlotte's fifth-leading scorer.
The Hornets are a below-average offensive team ranking 16th in scoring and 24th in field goal percentage. They are shooting 42 percent from the floor during their past five games. That figure would rank second-to-last in the league if computed for the entire season.
The under has cashed in 71 percent of Charlotte's past 14 home games. The under is 3-0 this season when the Hornets have played without rest with a total in triple digits.
Andre Ramirez
UTEP vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: Under 159½
Utep is averaging 75 ppg, while Texas San Antonio averages just 68 points. Utep is coming into this game as a -5.5 point favorite. Utep has only put up 80 points or more in 6 games out of 17. This total should be 80-75 at the high.
Brandon Shively
Kansas -21
For whatever reason, TCU went 3-0 ATS Kansas last year losing by 3, 5, and 9 points. However, Kansas is much better this season and TCU has only scored 48 and 54 points in their two road games in BIG 12 Play, losing by 28 and 21 points. Kansas has put up 100+ points in both of their BIG 12 home games this season. The Jayhawks are off a loss which I predicted earlier this week at West Virginia. This is a kill spot for them.