Mike Lundin
Bucks vs. Hornets
Play: Bucks +6
This looks like a good spot to back the Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Saturday. The Hornets have lost eight of their last nine and suffered a 109-107 setback at New Orleans last night. The Bucks on the other hand have alternated wins and losses over their last six and defeated the Hawks home in Milwaukee 108-101 in OT last night. With both teams on a back-to-back we have a huge situational advantage for this young Milwaukee team who is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games playing on no rest which can be compared to the Hornets 1-5 ATS in their last six in the back-end of a back-to-back. We can also note that the Bucks have covered the spread on each of their last four visits to Time Warner Cable Arena.
Scott Spreitzer
Seton Hall vs. Providence
Play: Seton Hall +6½
The Pirates have dropped two straight, including losses to Villanova and Creighton. Seton Hall was hanging around at Villanova, trailing by 5-to-8 points until roughly seven minutes were left in the game. They did cover the spread, losing by nine, while getting 15 points. The Pirates played a decent brand of basketball on the defensive end, but couldn't overcome a big Wildcat advantage at the FT line. Seton Hall let the loss to the 'Cats beat them twice, looking worn out when Creighton rolled into town. But they have now had a week off and will catch Providence in a tough spot. The Friars have been a little shaky of late, losing to Marquette, before escaping Creighton, 50-48. Ed Cooley's squad not only had to fight back from a double digit deficit in Omaha, but now must try to stay focused with games against Butler, Xavier, and Villanova, following this one. Providence does not shoot well from the deep perimeter and Seton Hall does their best work on the defensive end. The Pirates also have five players averaging between 15.1 ppg and 8.4 ppg, led by Isaiah Whitehead. SHU also gets strong work on the glass from Angel Delgado and Ismael Sanogo, who can cause the mediocre rebounding Friars trouble in this one. And the Pirates have been "money" on the road against teams with a winning home record, covering 68% of their last 34 tries.
Ari Atari
Portland at Philadelphia
Play: Portland -5½
With 3 strong wins in a row, the Blazers are having fun and hitting their stride. They have a long way to recover from a 18-24 record, but the team is feeding off Lillard's hot hand and leadership on the court. Lillard has 23 3 pointers in 4 games with a 31.3 average in those recent games. Blazers have covered the spread in 9 of 11 matchups against sub .400 teams. Jerami Grant is a spark that Philly will miss in this game with a deadly scoring backcourt in Portland and a team that can run up the score in a matter of seconds. I give Portand a 6 point advantage here and anything less that that gives us more edge to get the win in this game.
Rob Vinciletti
Florida vs. Ole Miss
Play: Florida -1½
The Gators have double 1 point loss revenge on Mississippi a role in which they have covered 7 straight if they are playing with more than 2 days rest. Florida has a better RPI Ranking and has played the 5th toughest schedule in the country, compared to 136th for the Rebels. Ole Miss has failed to cover 4 of the last 5 after scoring 80 or more in their last game. With Florida 4-1 on Saturdays we will look their way today.
Larry Ness
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Vanderbilt
To put it mildly, it’s been quite a week in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, with the Crimson Tide winning ANOTHER national championship Monday on the gridiron and then Alabama’s so-so basketball team knocking off previously unbeaten and 19th-ranked South Carolina on Wednesday. The Tide’s win over the Gamecocks was no fluke, as Alabama won 73-50, despite the team's leading scorer Obasohan (13.9) shooting 1 of 5 with four points! The 6-7 Norris (7.6-3.9) scored a career-high 27 points, finishing with a team-record eight 3-pointers.
The Crimson Tide now hit the road trying to keep the good streak going against SEC foe Vanderbilt. MUCH more was expected of Matt Painter’s team this year, as the Commodores are just 9-7 (1-3 in SEC play). Baldwin (14.8-4.1-4.5) and LaChance (9.6) are the mainstays in the backcourt, with Fisher-Davis (8.8) suffering from an ankle injury. The ‘Dores own a good trio of big men though, with the 7-0 Jones (13.0-6.6), the 7-1 Kornet (9.6-6.8) and the 6-6 Roberson (8.7-5.1). Alabama can hardly match that, with only the 6-8 Hale (10.2-3.) and Norris. The team's leading rebounder was guard Ingram (5.9), but he’s been lost for the season to an injury.
Avery Johnson is in his first season as Alabama coach and has had to learn the college game, having spent his coaching career in the NBA. He seems to be learning well, as Alabama is 10-5 overall (not bad). However, off the South Carolina upset, I don’t see the Tide (averaging 66.5 PPG) staying with Vandy, a team that averages 78.9 PPG on 47.1 percent shooting, including 40/2% on threes on the season. Here at home, Vandy is 7-2 while averaging 83.2 PPG. Lay it!
Jimmy Boyd
Miami vs. Clemson
Play: Miami -4
The fact that Clemson is an underdog at home after knocking off No. 16 Louisville (66-62) and No. 9 Duke (68-63) as a home dog in their last two games, really says a lot about the books don't think the Tigers are going to be winning a third straight home game against a ranked opponent. It's extremely difficult to emotionally get up for 3 games in a row of this caliber, especially after taking down the defending champion Blue Devils just 3 days ago.
While Clemson is primed for a letdown, Miami is going to come into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulder after having their 8-game losing streak snapped in a 58-66 loss at Virginia. The Hurricanes are ranked inside the Top 10 for a reason and their loss to the Cavaliers was just their 2nd all season.
One of things to keep in mind with Clemson and their 4-1 start inside ACC play, is this was far from an impressive team in non-conference play, so it's unlikely they will be able to sustain this kind of success in conference play. The Tigers lost to the likes of Minnesota, Alabama, and South Carolina, as well as an ugly 65-82 defeat against UMass.
It's also worth mentioning that Clemson had lost 7 straight against ranked opponents prior to their back-to-back wins over Louisville and Duke.
The Tigers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 off an upset conference win as a home dog and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after playing 2 straight at home. Hurricanes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Brad Diamond
Cincinnati vs. Temple
Play: Under 130½
Temple (8-7) faces Cincinnati (13-5) a team they defeated in December by 7 on the road as a double-digit underdog. Here the Bearcats visit Philadelphia laying -3-1/2 at this writing. Temple comes off a 67-65 loss and cover at Memphis. Cincinnati has the far superior SOS and possesses the majority of the matchup advantages, including a bench that goes 8 quality players deep. They are tenacious defensive club holding the opposition to 60.9 points per game. The underdog in the series has taken 5-of-7 in Vegas with Cincinnati 8-3 ATS vs. the AAC. Temple is 4-1 ATS L5 and plays into a 4-1 ATS mark in conference. The total in the series has shot OVER in 4 straight, but we doubt that will happen here. The game is an early start, and if Temple is going to defeat the stronger unit they will need to slow the pace, and improve their “D.” Overall, the Bearcats have been a classic UNDER unit 67-27 L94 times out.
Tony George
New England -4.5
My heart is with KC since I live here, but it also gives me clarity for KC. Their biggest weapon is Smith running it in busted pass blocking for him, the Pats can take that away. Also no WR is going to open long enough for Smith to throw it. Andy Reid makes bonehead calls, always has, and he is 1-4 as a head coach versus Mr. Hoodie. Brady versus Alex Smith is also a no brainer. KC will have issues running it against the Pats DL and not sure if they double up on Kelce at TE, how KC is going to score. Injuries are an issue and the OL of the Pats is suspect, but it is Bready at home in the Playoffs, and his teams pedigree and experience, they win by a TD to 10 points.
Packers / Cardinals Over 49.5
I expect Green Bay to put up some points here after getting embarrassed in game 1 with the Cards, and I also expect Zona to get it done on offense big time here, especially with rest. The Cards defense was exposed by Seattle 2 weeks ago and trust me the coaching staff will be looking at that film from Green Bay and you can also expect Aaron Rodgers to take off a lot in this game and move the chains.
David Banks
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Pick: New England Patriots-4.5
The Chiefs have now won 11 in a row thanks to its complete dominance of the Houston Texans in last week’s Wild Card playoff game. Now, head coach Andy Reid’s squad earns a trip to top seed New England in the Divisional Round. They may have to do it without star wide receiver Jeremy Maclin.
Maclin, who was obtained last offseason to add a legitimate threat to the receiving corps, left last week’s game against Houston and appears to have just ankle sprain. Chiefs’ fans can relax as an MRI showed that Maclin did not have a torn ACL as many had thought. Still, the Chiefs leading receiver is listed as day-to-day. Maclin had 90 receptions for 1,117 yards and eight touchdowns. Without him, the Chiefs lose an outside receiving threat. Quarterback Alex Smith would still have TE Travis Kelce, one of the NFL’s best receiving tight ends, but without Maclin on the outside, the Patriots defense can work on taking away Kelce and forcing Smith to work elsewhere.
If Maclin plays, a world of opportunity opens up for Smith, who was 17-of-22 for 190 yards and a touchdown in the 30-0 win over the Texans. Kelce, by the way, had eight of those catches for 128 yards.
Regardless of Maclin, the Chiefs still must face Patriots QB Tom Brady and company. The Patriots, the defending Super Bowl champions, have not lost a postseason game since 2013 when they lost in the AFC Championship game. What will be weighing heavily on the mind of New England head Bill Belichick is the last meeting between the two teams. In September of 2014, the Patriots were blown out by the Chiefs, 41-14, on Monday Night Football. A lot has changed for both teams since, but the game is a reminder that anything can happen.
Jeff Saad
Milwaukee at Charlotte
Play: Under
Both teams had to play last night, so it's hard to see this being an uptempo offensive night. Milwaukee is No. 24 in the NBA in points scored, 15-5 under the total in Saturday games. Charlotte has rediscovered its defensive touch this week, on a 5-1 run under the total. Charlotte is 10-4 under the total at home and the under is 7-2 in when the Hornets are playing on no days rest.
Mr. Vegas
Warriors at Pistons
Play: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash and it's a high total. Detroit is No. 9 in the NBA at defending the three-pointer while Golden State is No. 1. The Pistons are home ranked No. 9 in points allowed and will look to control the pace with their strong rebounding ability. The Under is 4-0 when the Pistons face a team with a winning straight up record. Golden State is 3,000 miles from home, their 5th road game in the last 7 contests. The Under is 12-4-1 when the Warriors play the NBA Central division. And the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, including 6-2 under at Detroit.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Maryland Terps minus the points over Ohio State in Big 10 Conference play. At the time of this writing, the Terps are laying around 10 points in Vegas and offshore.
Sorry Ohio State fans, but this team is simply overmatched here. If this were football season I might have a different opinion, but basketball is a different story and the Terps are one of the best teams in the country. Meanwhile, Ohio State was recently pummeled in their first real road game in the Big 10 (I don't count Northwestern) at Indiana, trailing 48-18 at halftime.
Maryland is in a different class than the Hoosiers and even if they don't jump out to a 30-point halftime lead, they should easily be able to win this game by 15+ points.
Too much talent in College Park for the Buckeyes today. Take the Terrapins minus the points as your free play of the day.
5* MARYLAND
Scott Delaney
The Hoosiers hit the road running, as they've won nine straight games, and come into this one with a 4-0 mark in Big Ten play. Sitting atop the standings right now, after the Michigan State Spartans lost to Iowa this past week, there is plenty of momentum flowing for Indiana.
With conference play about a quarter of the way through, this might normally be considered grind time. But traveling to Minnesota is almost a reprieve from grinding, because the Golden Gophers are horrible this season.
Minnesota is still searching for its first win to climb from the bottom of the conference standings. It's not happening today. Not against Indiana.
The Gophers' problem is simply that they are very young. So to think they can challenge a team like Indiana, after getting pummeled by Nebraska, is insane.
Lay the road chalk here, as the Golden Gophers come into this game mired in ATS losing streaks of 1-5 against conference foes and 9-26 overall.
2* INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the TCU Horned Frogs plus the big number in Lawrence against the Jayhawks.
This line is very inflated based on the fact KU was just stunned earlier this week at West Virginia, while TCU was run over at Baylor.
You would think based on those results that Bill Self's team will be in no mood to play around with TCU, but the Horned Frogs played the Jayhawks three times last season, and the Froggies did wind up playing 3 pretty competitive games against Rock Chalk, and did stay inside of the impost in all 3, losing by 5, 9, and 3 points!
As you can see by the impost today, the price is considerably higher.
TCU is 9-4 against the spread in Big 12 action, while Kansas is just 4-9 against the spread their last 13 in conference play.
Don't expect Kansas to get stung outright again today, but with this price out there in the stratosphere, let's back the Horny Toads plus the points to stay close enough to get the money at the ticket window.
1* TCU
Chris Jordan
My early free play for Saturday is on New Mexico minus the 11 at home against Wyoming.
I went to the UNLV-New Mexico game the other night, and while the Runnin' Rebels finally won a game, with a new coach in place, the Lobos displayed a few things that revealed how it got to 3-0 in conference play.
Heading into that game, the Lobos led the Mountain West in field goal defense in conference play (37.8 percent), 3-point field goal defense in Mountain West action (17.7) and steals per game with 9.7 per contest against league foes.
UNLV came out revved up, and went up by as much as 21 before scoring a 12-point win. But the Lobos weren't exposed that bad, and they have winnable games staring them dead in the face.
The bounce back begins here, at home, against a Wyoming team that isn't very good, and doesn't have enough offensive firepower to overcome New Mexico's stand-up D.
The Lobos are out to avenge their mid-week trip to Vegas, and will take out frustrations on the Pokes.
3* NEW MEXICO
I've got a second freebie for you, and it's on Cal Poly minus a cheap number at home against Long Beach State.
The Mustangs are closing out a two-game home stand inside Mott Athletics Center, after opening Big West Conference play with a second consecutive loss for the first time in four years.
Cal Poly lost Thursday, 76-73, to UC Santa Barbara, and enters tonight's matchup versus Long Beach State in a must-win situation.
The 'Stangs rank second among Big West programs with 75.2 points per game, the program's highest scoring average under seventh-year head coach Joe Callero.
Cal Poly hasn't lost three straight games to open a Big West schedule since the 2008-09 season, and I don't see that happening tonight.
Tonight's matchup marks a meeting of the conference's top two 3-point shooting teams, with Cal Poly second among conference programs at 37.3 (122-for-327) percent and Long Beach first at 39.0 (160-for-410) percent.
Wouldn't it be something if the Mustangs won this one at the buzzer with a trey? Lay the deuce and take Cal Poly.
3* CAL POLY