CHASE DIAMOND
St Bonaventure vs. Duquesne
Play: St Bonaventure -1.5
This game has the 12-3 St.Bonaventure at the 11-6 Duquesne. The Bonnies are red hot winning 5 straight and look to be one of the class teams in the Atlantic 10. The Bonnies are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are really under the radar so far with Vegas IMO. We are backing a public side as 65% are backing them but I feel this situation the public will cash this one easy.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +165 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins return home from a five game trip against New Jersey, Ottawa, the Rangers, Philly and Buffalo. That’s not exactly the cream of the crop and the B’s have two bookend wins to show for it. More importantly, Boston does not have any scores to settle with the Maple Leafs but they do have a score to settle in their game after this one. In the Winter Classic, Montreal went into Foxboro and absolutely humiliated the Bruins. The B’s have been humiliated by the Canadiens several times over the past couple of years and Boston will get a chance to respond in in its next game in Montreal. It’s simply a very vulnerable spot for the Bruins, as this one is sandwiched between a road trip and a game in Montreal. Aside from that, the B’s are just very ordinary anyway.
Toronto’s stock has dropped significantly over the past week with four straight losses including a 7-0 defeat to San Jose and a 3-1 loss to the Jackets. The Leafs are coming off a 4-1 loss last night to the red-hot Blackhawks but that score is a little misleading. The Maple Leafs took six minor penalties and it cost them. Chicago scored twice on the PP with Patrick Kane having one of his dominant performances. Despite all that time in the box, the shots on net in the game were even. Toronto had an outstanding first period and played just as well as the Blackhawks in 5-5 on play. On Wednesday, Toronto dominated Columbus and lost 3-1. We’re not giving up on the Leafs based on a week’s results. They had outstanding games this week against both Chicago and Los Angeles and they also had a great performance in Anaheim prior to the 2-1 loss to the Kings. The Leafs continue to play hard and they continue to create quality scoring chances. The Maple Leafs have not shown any quit whatsoever and we absolutely give them a seriously legit shot of emerging victorious here. This line is completely out of whack.
Montreal +120 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blue Notes have been a regular season juggernaut for years and that reputation continues to stick. The market considers the Blues as a well above average team but we’re not in agreement with that at all. When healthy and focused, the Blue Notes can compete with anyone but their focus is way off these days. First, a Ken Hitchcock coached team is in its customary downward spiral. Every team that Hitchcock has coached over the years stopped responding to him and the Blues are no different. Secondly, in the off-season, the Blues were one of the very few teams that did not improve. Hell, they traded away T.J. Oshie for Troy Brouwer for Christ’s sake. That may have been the start of the Blues downfall. The move sent shockwaves throughout the Blues organization, shattering a core that grew up together in St. Louis and they have not been the same since. St. Louis has one regulation win over its last 11 games. They’re coming off a lethargic 4-1 home loss to the Hurricanes. Playing one of the easiest schedules in the league (ranked 26th out of 30 teams), St. Louis is three games above .500 and they have just seven wins in 22 games against top-16 competition.
Montreal had some great puck luck in the first month of the season but that has taken a sharp turn for the worse over the last six weeks. The Habs have just four wins over their past 17 games and we can’t stress enough how ludicrous that is. The market always focuses onwins and losses, which is something we’re thankful for because it continues to provide us with opportunities. This is one such opportunity. Montreal is playing damn good hockey but the puck just isn’t going in for them. They’re coming off an unfortunate loss to Chicago on Thursday in a game Montreal dominated. In fact, the Canadiens had 12 high quality scoring chances to the ‘Hawks three. They held a significant edge in shots on goal and Corsi for. Only six times over their past 17 games have the Canadiens given up more high quality scoring chances than the opposition. In the Winter Classic on New Year’s Day, Montreal made the Bruins look like a minor league club. They have played just as well in many other games during this slide but do not have the results to show for it. Wins are forthcoming for this very sound outfit and this is as good a place to start as any.
Calgary/EDMONTON Over 5½
On Thursday, we had Calgary penciled in against Florida but that wager was contingent on Karri Ramo being in goal for the Flames. When Jonas Hiller was announced, we pulled out and Calgary went on to bury the Panthers, 6-0. Calgary will come right back with Hiller here because of the shutout he threw and we have to attempt to take advantage. Jonas Hiller might be the NHL’s worst goaltender in the past 50 years. He shut out Florida because he didn’t have a difficult shot the entire night and only faced five per period for a total of 15 shots. Hiller’s save percentage this season is .870. That’s equivalent to a baseball pitcher with an ERA of 7. His GAA is 3.40, which is unheard of in today’s NHL. Hiller was the beneficiary of facing a flat Panthers team last time out but there’s a reason that Bob Hartley didn’t even look his way over the past 12 games and it’s not because Ramo was great.
We would play Edmonton here based on fading Hiller but the Flames are playing too well to go against. Rookie Sam Bennett has arrived and he’s wreaking havoc on the scoreboard. The Flames have scored 20 goals over their past five games and should have four wins over that span but they have three. When these two get together, one or both teams often put up a crooked number. Over the past 10 meetings between these two Western rivals, we have seen scores of 5-4, 5-3, 5-2, 8-1, 5-2 and 4-3 with five of the last six games going over the number. The expectation of this one going over 5½ is high, especially with Hiller in net, and so that’s how we’ll proceed.
Vegas Butcher
New England Patriots -5
I discussed this Chiefs defense in detail last week and they didn’t disappoint, holding the Texans to a shut-out. This is an elite unit ranking 2nd in w-DVOA (weighted DVOA), 5th in Pass-D, 4th in rushing the passer (based on ASR% - Adjusted Sack Rate), and 2nd overall at 16.9 PPG allowed on the season, barely behind Seattle’s 16.8 PPG-allowed mark. This unit has been even better in the 2nd half of the year, with a 11.5 PPG-allowed mark. The Patriots rank only 18th in pass-protection, have a very mediocre run-game, and have really struggled offensively in the 2nd half of the year, registering a DVOA of +6%, which is very close to ‘average’. But let’s not forget that in the first half, this team has a DVOA of +24%, ranking 2nd best in the league. So what happened? Well, Pats lost Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis around the mid-point mark of the season. They also lost a few O-linemen as well. Pats replaced Lewis with James White, whose +33% DVOA mark receiving is much better than Lewis’ +14% mark (White received 54 targets so far to Lewis’ 50 so clearly the stats are very comparable). They are also getting Vollmer back today, which will help strengthen the O-line. But of course the biggest factor to this Pats’ offense is Julian Edelman, especially in the matchup with the Chiefs. KC has two solid corners. The problem though is that both are big (6’0+) and mostly play on the perimeter. They’d have trouble keeping up with Edelman’s quickness regardless, but since he plays out of the slot so much, it will take them out of their comfort zone even more. Addition of Edelman will also allow the Pats to utilize their quick-passing offensive game-plan fully, minimizing the impact of KC’s pass-rush, and tiring out this defense in the process as the game goes along. Even without it, it’s debatable how effective both Hali and Houston will be, as both are recently coming off injuries, and might be playing at less than 100%. And remember that 11.5 PPG-allowed in the 2nd half stat, I mentioned earlier? Well, let’s take a look who that came against:
Week 10: @ DEN – Manning at QB, one of the worst starting QB’s in the league
Week 11: @ SD – O-line in shambles, top-receiver out, most of the offense hurt
Week 12: vs BUF – allowed 22 points to a top-10 Bills offense
Week 13: @ OAK – Carr at the helm, who was regressing greatly in the 2nd half of the year after a ‘hot’ start to the season
Week 14: vs SD – same injured Chargers offense
Week 15: @ BAL – Jimmy Clausen at QB – ‘nuff said
Week 16: vs CLE – Johnny ‘Alcoholic’ Manziel at QB – ‘nuff said
Week 17: vs OAK – A regressing Carr and Raiders’ offense again
Honestly, only the Bills were a ‘good’ offense that the Chiefs faced during this hot stretch, and Buffalo registered a 6.2 YPP (Yards Per Play) against KC in that one as they were able to move the ball very effectively throughout. If not for the 2 lost fumbles, I’m sure the Bills would have scored more points and could have won the game, which they lost by 8. When you look at the first half, the Chiefs’ D allowed 38 points to the Packers and 36 to the Bengals. So against the three top-10 offenses they’ve faced this season (I’m excluding Pittsburgh, since Landry Jones was the starter for that one), the Chiefs have allowed 32 PPG and 7.2 YPP. League averages are 23 PPG-allowed and 5.5 YPP-allowed. So, maybe this KC defense isn’t as ‘scary’ as they look. Of course it’s important to remember that the CIN and GB games were early in the year, when the Chiefs were missing one of the CB’s (suspension) and a few other key defenders were still getting adjusted due to either coming off an injury or being a rookie. Still, I believe that with the return of Edelman and emergence of White at RB, this Pats offense will be the strongest they’ve been all season long. Ignore what you’ve seen out of them the last few weeks of the season and expect an excellent game-plan. Besides, give Belichik 2 weeks to scheme, and you can be confident he’ll come up with something that will give his team a major advantage.
So while I’ve spent a lot of time talking about how NE’s O matches up with KC’s D, I believe the real critical factor in this one is on the other side. And that’s the injury to Jeremy Maclin. As effective as KC is rushing the ball and as efficient as they are overall offensively, Jeremy Maclin might be their most critical offensive player. I just don’t see how the Chiefs will move the ball effectively without him. This is a New England D that had a DVOA of -24% against the run in the 2nd half of the year, one of the best marks in the league. The Chiefs have the best rushing offense in the league (in part due to Smith’s scrambling ability), but Pats have the type of defense that can shut that down. Keep in mind that New England has been playing without a number of key defenders the last few weeks of the season, all of whom are back for this one. Shut down the run-game, take away Kelce in the passing-game, and I think the Chiefs are really going to struggle against Maclin (even if he plays, he’ll be more of a decoy according to reports).
My model has this game at -5, so the spread is fair. But when is the last time you were able to get New England at home in the playoffs at a FAIR price? Typically lines on them are shaded a point or two, to account for their popularity with the public in such scenarios. Not the case today. Grab the Pats with confidence in this one.
Green Bay Packers +7.5 -115
Remember when the Vikings were 3-point underdogs against Seattle during the regular season, got absolutely shellacked, and then had like a 99.9% chance to win the rematch as 4-point underdogs before Blair Walsh shanked a chip-shot FG attempt? Well, we have a very similar scenario in this matchup. Back at the end of December, the Packers were +6-point road underdogs @ Arizona and proceeded to get blown out 38-8. They are now a +7.5-point road underdog in the rematch. Can we expect another blowout? Possibly…but highly unlikely. It’s really hard to blow out a good team twice in one season in the NFL. You have some of the best football minds in the business and those people are typically great at reviewing film, making adjustments, and coming up with completely different game-plans for rematches, allowing the ‘underdog’ to be much more competitive than in the first meeting.
I don’t know exactly what that game-plan is going to be, but I know adjustments are coming. The Packers are getting their LT David Bakhtiari back, which is absolutely huge. Packers allowed 9 sacks against Arizona last time, a game Bakhtiari missed. I expect better protection this time around. In addition, I believe Sam Shields will play, as he practiced on a limited basis this week. He’s Green Bay’s best corner and his presence will be huge (read the last part with your best Donald Trump impersonation). Green Bay has the 6th ranked pass-defense, a critical factor against an offense like Arizona, which features 3 stud WR’s and Carson Palmer, who is playing out of his mind this year. I think for the Packers to be in this game, their D will need to play well and I expect them to do so. Finally, the real differentiator in this one could be the special teams. While the Cardinals are excellent on both offense and defense, they rank dead-last on special teams. A crucial fumble on a return, a missed tackle in coverage, or a shanked PAT, and that could be enough to get a cover in this one.
Bottom line is that I expect the Packers to adjust and execute a much better game-plan in the rematch. I also expect them to play with a little more ‘fire’, knowing that a huge effort is needed to score an upset and avoid another embarrassment. Green Bay is 6-3 ATS on the road while Arizona is only 3-5 ATS at home. Clearly this line is inflated (remember, it was -6 ARZ a few weeks back), and I’ll grab the value with the points in this one.
Brandon Lee
Illinois -3
I believe the books have made a huge mistake here with listing Illinois as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is getting way to much respect in my opinion due to coming off back-to-back blowout win over Rutgers (90-56) and Minnesota (84-59). Those are the two worst teams in the Big Ten. Prior to that the Cornhuskers had lost their first 3 conference games all by at least 9 points, including home losses to Northwestern (72-81) and Indiana (66-77). Nebraska isn't a team that historically played well on the road, which only strengthens this play on Illinois. The Fighting Illini aren't a great team by any means, but they will be playing with a ton of confidence off a 84-70 home win against Purdue as a 9.5-point underdog. Illinois' last two home games against Nebraska have both resulted in blowout wins. They won 69-57 last year and 60-49 in 2014. I expect a similar type outcome in this one.
Andy Iskoe
Chiefs / Patriots Under 43
This is the one Divisional game that is not a rematch of a regular season meeting. Perhaps none of the four top seeds will have benefitted from the Bye week as will have New England as the Patriots have been nursing injuries to key players for the better part of the second half of the season. And that includes QB Tom Brady who was banged up in the regular season finale at Miami. The Chiefs don’t wow you in the way they play football. They run the football, play solid defense and don’t turn the football over. They wear an opponent down and look to capitalize on their mistakes. Theirs is not a big play offense. Remember that last season, 2014, KC did not have a wide receiver catch a TD pass. Against almost any other foe than New England the Chiefs would be a very attractive upset pick. The Patriots are the Patriots. They know how to win and know how to adapt to Playoff football. This should be a cleanly played game as the Patriots and Chiefs rank first and second in fewest turnovers lost. Both have top seven defenses on a yards per play basis. New England has the more potent passing offense but KC has been significantly better at running the football, averaging 49 more yards per game (128) than the Pats. The line is around 5 which is a pretty neutral number that almost suggests the books are taking a "wait and see" approach. There is statistical su…pport for the Chiefs that is offset by "football support" for the Pats. The public is likely to back the Pats and the pros are more inclined to back the Chiefs. Ultimately this game may come down to big plays and New England has the more proven big play ability. Through the years the Pats have been able to overcome a myriad of personnel changes at various positions, including RB, TE and WR, with virtually no dropoff in overall performance and results, QB Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick being the constants. Brady may be starting to show his age and slow down a bit and the Pats could be susceptible against a more well rounded foe. There’s little not to like about Kansas City but they are not facing a flawed team such as the faced in Houston last week. The KC offense is still pedestrian with limited big play capability. Note that the Chiefs have not allowed more than 22 points in 13 straight games. Both teams will likely have to work hard for the points they earn and this game should be lower scoring than expected as a result with turnovers likely at a minimum.
Packers / Cardinals Over 49
The Packers finally showed the offense that seemingly abandoned them midway through the season in its solid 35-18 win at Washington. Just two weeks earlier, in week 16, the Green Bay offense was non-existent in a 38-8 loss on this field to the Cardinals. The Pack gained just 178 total yards, 2.8 per play. The win was Arizona’s ninth straight win, a streak that was broken, also on this field, the following week by Seattle. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer had an outstanding season and showed that, when healthy for a full season, he can perform at an elite level. Arizona has been dealing with RB injuries for most of the season yet still averaged 3 yards per game more than Green Bay with both rushing offenses ranking in the top ten. Arizona had the better defensive stats but their edge is not that great. Green Bay’s defense improved by 71 yards per game over the second half of the season. Green Bay was much better at avoiding turnovers, ranking fourth in fewest turnovers lost. Arizona was just average in that category, averaging about a half turnover more lost per game. When at their best the Packers can compete with any team in the league. But the question is whether Green Bay can duplicate last week’s effort in Washington against an Arizona team that has risen to elite status with three straight double digit win seasons, each better than the last, going from 10 to 11 to 13 wins this season. But Green Bay’s performance over the second half of the season gives reason to doubt if last week’s performance can be repeated. But for that "Hail Mary" pass created by a questionable roughing the passer penalty in Detroit the Packers would have ended the regular season 3-7 following their 6-0 start. Washington has one of the league’s worst defenses, allowing 6.0 yards per play and nearly 12 yards per pass completion. Arizona’s defense is among the NFL’s best and will be able to… pressure Rodgers who was well protected last week. There are still issues along the Packers’ offensive line that created problems in their first meeting with the Cardinals. Rodgers was sacked 9 time for a loss of 78 yards! Arizona should be just as aggressive in attacking Rodgers again until he shows he can overcome that pressure. Green Bay will be team to make most of the adjustments and Rodgers should have more success. Against the top teams Arizona faced this season – teams that won at least 10 games – the Cards were 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS. My initial inclination before last week’s games was to want to fade the Packers in this rematch. But that was with an expectation that the line would be less than a TD. But at 7 or more the Packers are attractive given their Playoff experience and Arizona’s slim margins this season against quality foes, notwithstanding that one of those foes was Green Bay and the Cards won 38-8. But the better play should be the OVER as Arizona should score points against the Packers defense it attacked successfully in their first meeting while as the same time the Green Bay offense, taking the field with more confidence this time, should be able to match most of those scores in what handicaps as the most entertaining game of the weekend.
Otto Sports
East Carolina at UCF
Play: Under 139
A few weeks back I wrote up a free play on East Carolina-UCF under 139. Early bettors were able to cash on the under but the game unfortunately landed right on 139 thanks to 51 points the final 10 minutes of the game and a slew of free throws late due to fouls. Prior to that flurry of points, the game was a dead nuts under. At half, UCF led 28-25, and with five minutes to go it was 56-51. These are two under type squads (10-14 O/U combined) with the Knights playing zone and boasting one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and the Pirates also playing zone. Both teams are also mirrors images of one another when it comes to pace (NCAA average) and offensive efficiency (again, NCAA average). The Knights are probably a little better defensively that their numbers suggest. They played two throw-away type games against Stetson and Bethune-Cookman where they traded baskets and everyone got to boost their stats. They also struggled against the high-power offenses of Davidson, Detroit, and SMU. Outside of that, this is a team that has been pretty consistent about holding teams in the 60's. ECU is in a similar boat with a few home wins against weak foes that produced big scores. As mentioned these two squads are very similar both offensive and defensively as well as power rating wise hence UCF priced as a small home favorite. Add in the second meeting and this should once again be a game where neither team hits the 70-point mark. Play it under.