Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 16,2010

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +7 over NEW ORLEANS

We all saw the Cardinals involved in one of the greatest NFL playoff games ever played in terms of offense and excitement and that crazy game is really the only thing that has me a little weary about pulling the trigger on the Cardinals. However, I much prefer a team with momentum taking back 7 big points than a team that hasn’t won in nearly a month and that does not have the experience the Cardinals have. One has to figure Kurt Warner and his receivers to have a big day against the suspect passing defense of the Saints. Should the Cardinals score first, a distinct possibility indeed, you’ll be up 14 and that’s a pretty sweet place to be in. Having said that, Drew Brees and his group of weapons figures to rack up a ton of yards as well, especially with all the time they’ve had to prep. One should be concerned about how much last week’s win took out the Cardinals and they’ll have to play this one in at atmosphere that’ll be one of the most electric of all time. Put a gun to my head and I’m taking the points but prefer others to this one. Play: Arizona +7 (No bets).

INDIANAPOLIS –6 over Baltimore

The Ravens stock shot up last week after they buried the Pats in the first quarter and never let them get close the rest of the way. However, I’m not as convinced that it was the Ravens great play that got them that easy win as much as it was the poor play of New England. The Pats were completely lifeless from the first play from scrimmage to the final buzzer. Enter the Colts and you know who. Peyton Manning has had close to three weeks off to prepare for anyone. More than that, however, is the fact that the Ravens can’t move the ball and what that means is they’ll be punting it more than a few times. In other words, Manning will get a whole bunch of opportunities to move it and he’ll begin to strike at some point, maybe even very early. So, take your pick, Joe Flacco and his bum hip or Peyton Manning, the best prepared QB to ever play this game and it might not be close. Remember, the Ravens had only won twice on the road all year prior to last week’s win. They had some ugly wins down the stretch that included victories over the Bears, Lions and Brownies. The Ravens dominant effort, and I use that term loosely, over the Pats has them overvalued and frankly, I saw nothing in them that has me believing they can keep pace in an indoor stadium with this offensive guru. Play: Indianapolis –6 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Cardinals @ Saints

Ironically, the Saints catch phrase of ‘Who Dat?” has suddenly applied to themselves. After an incredible 13-0 thrust to start the season, the Saints enter this post-season backing up. New Orleans dropped its final three games and has not experienced the thrill of victory since December 13th. Could New Orleans have peaked at the wrong time? Perhaps that memorable dismantling of the Patriots on a Monday night was the Saints’ Super Bowl? Jubilation was at its climax after that one. So much so, that New Orleans nearly lost to the woeful Redskins right after, and then narrowly slipped past a tattered Atlanta team. So which squad shows up for this important game? Given the opponent, it may not matter. Arizona gets less respect than a substitute teacher and that’s a mistake. We saw this team peak at this very same time last year. You know they will be working out some of their defensive liabilities after last week’s shoot out with the Packers. Offensively, there is little to worry about. If Green Bay’s 2nd ranked defence, 5th against the pass could not slow down Kurt Warner and his band of receivers, how can we expect New Orleans’ 26th ranked pass defence to do so? The jury is still out on the Saints. The Cardinals have prove their mettle in this role and their quick strike ability makes them a very dangerous doggie here.

TAKING: Arizona +7 RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2

Ravens @ Colts

Under normal circumstances, we would have taken a good look at the Ravens. They are tough, they run the ball well and they’ve had success in road playoff games. However, we can’t go that way with our concerns about QB Joe Flacco’s hip. Have you seen the guy walk? John Wayne would be proud. Baltimore’s brass are playing it down but you can’t hide the fact the Flacco was 4 of 10 for 34 yards and one interception last week. Combined with 102 passing yards the week prior against Oakland, a game the Ravens needed to win, Flacco produced the fewest two-game passing total of his career. The sophomore has acknowledged a bruise on his right hip while indicating that fluid running down to his quadriceps has caused stiffness. Things worked out against a limited New England team. It is doubtful that the same can happen here. Should Peyton Manning and Co. get out in front, the inability to play catch up through the air limits what the Ravens can do. With TE Todd Heap also hurting, it doesn’t help that there is little time for these maladies to heal as Baltimore will be playing on six days rest while the Colts have been comfortably awaiting this contest for two weeks. The Colts have won and covered six straight in this series. Expect the streak to continue.

TAKING: Indianapolis –6 RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2

Marc Lawrence

Texas A&M at Texas
Play: Texas A&M

What is one program?s loss is occasionally another program?s gain. For the first time in school history, the Longhorns have reached the apex of college basketball. With success at new levels comes an awful lot of pressure. Just note Texas? 0-4 ATS mark in this series when they own a greater than .840 win-loss percentage. A&M?s Mark Turgeon has certainly held his own UT. Since taking over the Aggies? helm in 2007, the 3rd-year head coach is 2-2 SU versus Rick Barnes? Longhorns while garnering the cash in three of the four contests. The Aggies have also mined for gold as conference dogs, posting a 20-8 ATS mark over their last 28 in that role, including 11-3 ATS when taking more than five points. Look for the Aggies to take advantage of Texas' lofty standing here this afternoon.

Tom Freese

Massachusetts at Temple
Prediction: Temple

Temple is 13-3 and in first place in the Atlantic 10. They are led in scoring by Ryan Brooks and his 15.3 points a game. Juan Fernandez averages 13.4 points a game and he has the ability to be special. Lavoy Allen averages 11.2 points an 10.1 rebounds a game. The Owls look the part of a very good team. The home team has won the last 7 meetings in this series. UMASS is just 7-8 straight up. They have three double figure scorers. Ricky Harris puts up 17.4 points a game and Anthony Gurley averages 15.1 points a game. Terrel Vinson scores 12.5 points a game. The Minutemen are 4-10 ATS their last 14 road games vs. a team with a with a winning home percentage of over 60%. PLAY ON TEMPLE

Matt Fargo

Illinois vs. Michigan State
Play: Illinois +11

Michigan St. is coming off a home win over Minnesota last time out on Wednesday by seven points. It was the fourth straight win for the Spartans to open conference action and it also resulted in four straight covers. They covered that game against the Gophers by a half-point and comparing that line to this line does not jive. I have Minnesota ranked 38th in my power ratings while I have Illinois ranked 61st. That is not a significant difference and one that should not translate to a line difference of over five points. The Spartans are once again one of the top teams in the country and all three of their losses have come against top teams although North Carolina is slowly falling away from that. They are 10-0 at home this season but only three of those are considered quality wins and those came by seven, seven and four points. I definitely consider Illinois a quality team. The Illini are 12-5 on the season and they are a few bounces away from possessing a much better record than that even. Illinois has four losses by four points or less and all of those came on a neutral floor. The Illini are 2-0 on the road including a very impressive road win at Clemson and they as well are a perfect 4-0 in the conference. Illinois is ranked 11th in the country in assists with 17.3 apg and is 12th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio at 1.44 while it is a solid +4.2 in rebounding margin which is tied for 63rd in the country and fourth in the Big Ten. This is thanks to forward Mike Davis who leads the Big?Ten and is 24th in the country in rebounding with 9.7 rpg and point guard Demetri McCamey who leads the conference and is 13th in the nation in assists with 5.9 apg. Michigan St. has long been a team that shoots very well from the free throw line but this season is different as it is hitting just 67.8 percent including only 65.6 percent at home. Illinois meanwhile is hitting 73.2 percent from the charity stripe including 74.7 percent over the last five games and that is a big edge. Michigan St. is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record while Illinois is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games coming off a win by three points or less. 3* Illinois Fighting Illini

LARRY NESS

Louisville @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Louisville

Pittsburgh upped its record to 14-2 after its 67-57 win at U Conn on Tuesday. Pittsburgh's three wins this month have come all come on the road and have come against opponents who are a combined 38-12. Most observers did not believe the Panthers would be able to "make do" without small forward Young (19.2-6.3) and the major inside presence of Blair (15.7-12.3) this year, not to mention the loss of point guard Fields (10.7-7.5 APG). The Panthers are led by sophomore guard Gibbs (17.6) and junior guard Wannamaker (12.6-6.3), who have both stepped up big time. Gibbs averaged just 4.3 PPG last season while Wannamaker contributed 5.8-3.3. The 6-6 Brown, who averaged 6.0 PPG the last two years, missed the team's first 11 games but is back averaging 10.2 PPG (five games). The 12-5 Cardinals led by as many as 17 points in the first half of last Monday's game against Villanova but fell 92-84 in a game which saw the teams combine for 44 turnovers, 67 fouls and 94 FTs. However, Louisville should be confident heading into this game, despite Pittsburgh's dominating record here in the Petersen Events Center. Pitt has won 92.5 percent of its home games since the building opened in 2002-03, the fifth-highest percentage in the country. The Panthers also own a current 30-game home winning streak, which is tied for the second-longest streak in the nation. They've won those 30 games by an average of 17.9 points. However, it is Louisville which last beat Pitt here. The Cardinals won 75-73 back on February 24, 2008, running their record in Pitt's new facility to 2-0, when no other visitor has won there more than once! Louisville's two big men, Samuels (15.8-7.9) and Swopshire (8.5-6.1), should dominate the 'paint', while veteran guards Sosa (13.9-2.9 APG) and Smith (9.4) are not unfamiliar with playing in tough road venues. Pittsburgh was No. 1 in the nation going into last season's lone matchup with Louisville (Jan 17), but the Cardinals won 69-63 at Freedom Hall. Pitt will be motivated but Pitino and the Cards "have the Panthers' number." What's more, Pitino is 10-2 ATS in his last 12 as a regular-season underdog, so I'm taking the points.

Alex Smart

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
PICK: Under 57.5

Will this be the final game in the epic career of QB Kurt Warner? The former Arena Football League quarterback has kept quiet about his potential retirement, but it sure sounds like this will be his last season slinging the ball around as a Cardinal. He had one of the best games of his entire career last weekend against Green Bay's stellar defense, throwing for 379 yards and five touchdowns on a nearly perfect 29/33 passing. The 51 points scored was just a reminder of how potent this offense can be, in spite of the fact that it only averaged the 11th most points in the league during the regular season (23.4 points per game).

When you're talking about offensive proficiency though, the conversation in the NFC begins and ends with the Saints. Before they really gave up on the regular season, New Orleans had the most lethal offense in the league. The unit could score from anywhere on the field, and a number of different weapons could do the deed. QB Drew Brees threw for 4,388 yards and had a legitimate gripe to win the MVP Award if not for the ridiculous season that Colts QB Peyton Manning had.

Many are expecting this match-up to resemble the one that went down in the desert a week ago. Because of that, it’s been tagged with a ridiculously high total for a playoff game. All the game needs for it not to go over is 1-2 time consuming drives that end in no points or field goals. I firmly believe AZ will look to take the crowd out of this one with its ground attack. New Orleans could also come out rusty with the extended time off. Both defenses are pretty decent in the red zone as well. In order for over bettors to have an excellent shot at cashing their tickets, they’ll need both offenses to finish off their drives with touchdowns. With so much on the line, I’m not exactly sure that will occur. With such a high total, I see no choice but to take a stab at the under

Lee Kostroski

Mississippi @ Tennessee
PICK: Mississippi +7.5

Emotion can only carry the Volunteers so far. They had to dismiss four key contributors from their team, including star Tyler Smith, and have won three straight convincing wins. They had a 17 point victory over Charlotte, defeated #1 Kansas by 8 and Auburn by 26 points. They are playing with very little depth and we don’t expect that they can keep this up for long. Ole Miss may not defeat the Vols, but we expect them to remain within seven points. Go with the Rebels as they match up well vs. the Vols pressure defense. UT relies heavily on creating turnovers that turn into offensive opportunities. Ole Miss has a very talented and experienced backcourt that will handle the defensive pressure of the Vols.

When the Vols lost those four players just over a week ago, they lost 32.4 ppg and 14.7 rebounds per game. They’ve been performing well without them so far, but you could see the fatigue in their last game. You would never guess it by the final score but Auburn was in control for the entire first half of the game. They jumped out to an early lead and had the lead for much of the half. They went cold and only had 18 points in the 2nd half. That was Thursday night and we expect a flat performance from the Volunteers with a very short turnaround.

This is a huge game for Ole Miss. They are ranked #23 but they don’t have any “signature” wins. They lost @Villanova and @West Virginia and vs. Mississippi State. The Rebs have a very balanced attack on offense. Five players average 10 points or more and average 83 ppg and shoot 46.9% as a team. They also have good bench depth that will cause problems for Tennessee.

In the last match-up between these two, Ole Miss shot 50.9% and out-rebounded the Vols by 9 and got the 16 point victory. Mississippi has always played strong against the Vols. Tennessee has won just two of the last five meetings. One of the wins was by just two points and the other by 14. We expect this game to end up very close in the end. Go with the Rebs plus the points.

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL PLAYOFFS

Arizona (11-6, 10-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Cardinals travel to the Big Easy to take on the top-seeded Saints at the Superdome to open the divisional playoff round.

Arizona won a wild-card shootout with Green Bay on Sunday, claiming a 51-45 victory in overtime as a 2½-point home underdog in the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history. The Cardinals blew leads of 17-0 in the first quarter and 31-10 in the third quarter, but QB Kurt Warner had perhaps the game of his career, going 29 of 33 for 379 yards, throwing more TD passes (5) than incompletions. Ironically enough, the game was won when Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby grabbed an Aaron Rodgers fumble and ran it in for the TD.

New Orleans was perfect through 13 games this year (8-5 ATS), winning and covering the first six weeks, en route to wrapping up the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. However, the Saints finished on an 0-3 SU and ATS skid. Their unbeaten season was spoiled in a 24-17 loss to Dallas a 7½-point home favorite, followed by a shocking 20-17 home setback to lowly Tampa Bay as a whopping 14-point underdog. In the regular-season finale, with nothing to play for, New Orleans again lost 23-10 catching 10 points at Carolina.

Arizona made the postseason as the NFC West champion (fourth seed) for the second straight year, after a nine-year playoff absence. The Cardinals rode last year’s playoff berth all the way to their first Super Bowl appearance before falling to Pittsburgh 27-23 as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason. With last week’s winning effort, coach Ken Whisenhunt is now 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

New Orleans is back in the playoffs after a two-year drought. The Saints made a run at the Super Bowl following the 2006 regular season, topping Philadelphia 27-24 at home as a 5½-point chalk in the divisional round before getting ripped in chilly Chicago 39-14 getting 2½ points in the NFC Championship Game.

These teams have met in three meaningful games the past 10 years, with New Orleans going 2-1 SU and ATS, and all three tilts were decided by at least a TD. Most recently, the Saints won 31-24 giving four points at home in December 2007. The Saints are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five clashes, and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings (3-0 SU and ATS last three).

The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs. The Redbirds averaged 23.4 ppg (11th). In last week’s shootout, though, Arizona blew up for a whopping 531 yards, adding 156 rushing yards to Warner’s aerial assault.

The turnover bug plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin (24th in the league), making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th), and last week gave up an eye-popping 493 yards to the Packers, with Rodgers carving them up for 422 passing yards and four TDs. But Arizona – playing the team with the by far the best turnover margin in the league – ironically won the turnover battle 2-1, which in the end was the difference.

Despite its lackluster regular-season finish, New Orleans led the league in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring (31.9 ppg). In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth), as he threw for 4,388 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs, against just 11 INTs.

Brees was also the top rated QB (109.6), completing 70.6 percent of his passes, and four Saints finished with at least 550 yards receiving, paced by Marques Colston (1,074 yards, 9 TDs). Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 357.8 ypg (25th) and 21.3 ppg (20th), though the Saints posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL.

The Cardinals are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 15-7 overall, the aforementioned 5-0 in the playoffs, 7-0 on Saturday, 23-9 as an underdog, 6-0 as a road pup, 7-1 in January and 8-2 against winning teams. All that said, Super Bowl losers are on an 11-18-2 ATS purge in playoff games the following season, despite the Cards’ win and cover last week.

The Saints are on ATS upticks of 9-2 following a SU loss, 10-3 laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 as a home chalk of that same price, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-5 overall (all versus NFC teams), 0-4 as a favorite, 0-4 in January, 0-4 on Saturday and 1-4 at home (all as a chalk).

Arizona is on “over” rolls of 5-1 in the postseason, 38-14 as a road pup, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 20-8 against winning teams, but the total has stayed low in six of its last eight overall (with last week’s shootout obviously sailing high). The under is on further runs for the Cards of 5-0 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 5-2 on the highway.

The over is 3-0-1 in New Orleans’ last four playoff games and 47-23-2 in its last 72 starts against winning teams, but the Saints sport “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 laying points and 5-0 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Baltimore (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (14-2, 10-6 ATS)

The top-seeded Colts and league MVP Peyton Manning return to action after their first-round bye, taking on the wild-card Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Baltimore, the No. 6 seed in the AFC, went on the road and plastered third-seeded New England last week, scoring 24 first-quarter points on the way to a 33-14 victory as a 3½-point pup. The Ravens ran for a whopping 234 yards, including an 83-yard TD jaunt by RB Ray Rice on the game’s first play from scrimmage. Baltimore also forced four Tom Brady turnovers (3 INTs, 1 fumble) while committing two, as it improved to 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in its last six games.

Indianapolis ripped off wins in its first 14 games (10-4 ATS) before rookie coach Jim Caldwell inexplicably let off the gas in the second half against the New York Jets on Dec. 27. Caldwell pulled Manning, among other starters, while leading 15-10 in the third quarter, and the Colts ultimately lost 29-15 as a three-point home favorite. In a meaningless Week 17 tilt in the snow at Buffalo, Indy got drubbed 30-7 as a nine-point underdog, with starters seeing limited if any action.

The Ravens are in the playoffs for a second straight year and are on a familiar tack. They rode the No. 6 seed all the way to the AFC title game last season before losing at Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point ‘dog.

The Colts are in the playoffs for the eight consecutive year, winning the Super Bowl after the 2006 regular season, but bowing out against San Diego in their playoff opener each of the past two seasons. In the divisional round two years ago against the Chargers, Indy lost 28-24 as a whopping 10½-point home favorite, and as a wild-card last year, the Colts went to San Diego and fell 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point road chalk.

These squads met Nov. 22 in regular-season action, with Indianapolis squeaking out a 17-15 victory as a one-point road favorite. The Ravens were in position for a chip-shot game-winning field-goal attempt until QB Joe Flacco threw an interception in the red zone. The Colts are riding a six-game SU and ATS winning streak against Baltimore dating to 2004, with five of those wins coming by nine points or more. Only two of those six contests were in Indy, including the Colts’ 31-3 pasting as a four-point chalk in October 2008. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.

During Indianapolis’ 2006 run to the Super Bowl title, it beat Baltimore 15-6 as a four-point road pup in the divisional round. With Manning at QB, the Colts are on a 7-0 SU tear (6-1 ATS) against Baltimore, dating to 2002.

The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th) in the regular season, including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.

Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, as it ranked third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 regular-season turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL. With last week’s effort, Baltimore improved to plus-12 for the year.

Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning, who won his fourth MVP award this year, threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs, against 16 INTs, with five players recording 47 or more catches. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and All-Pro TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led the way.

Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th), but that translated into just 19.2 ppg (ninth), and the Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin.

The Ravens currently shoulder negative ATS streaks of 1-4 against winning teams, 3-7 in January and 4-12 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re also riding positive ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 7-2 in playoff roadies, 13-6-1 after a spread-cover and 15-7-1 following a SU win.

Perhaps most telling, though, is that under coach John Harbaugh, Baltimore is a superb 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS against teams coming off a SU loss – including 10-0 ATS in that situation when the Ravens are coming off a SU win.

Likewise, the Colts are a mixed bag at the betting window, going 0-4 ATS in their last four outings following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a pointspread defeat. In addition, since 2005, home teams who had a bye entering the divisional round are just 4-12 ATS, and Manning is 0-2 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs after a bye week. Still, the Colts carry positive pointspread streaks of 10-5 overall, 3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 as a chalk.

The over is 18-7-2 in the Ravens’ last 27 games as a pup and 5-1-1 in their last seven as a road ‘dog, including last week’s contest, which cleared the 43½-point posted price, and the over is on stretches for the Colts of 4-0 overall and 4-1 when laying points.

However, the under for Baltimore is on rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 on Saturday and 4-1-1 after a SU win. The under has also hit in six straight Saturday games for Indianapolis and is 6-2 in its last eight playoff starts and 5-2 in its last seven divisional-round games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven clashes, with the November contest in Baltimore falling well short of the 44-point price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Louisville (12-5, 5-7 ATS) at (16) Pittsburgh (14-2, 7-5-2 ATS)

The scalding-hot Panthers shoot for their eighth straight victory – and fifth straight to open Big East play – when they welcome conference-rival Louisville to Petersen Events Center.

The Cardinals kicked off the conference season with wins over Providence (92-70 as a 3½-point road chalk) and St. John’s (75-68 as a 13-point home favorite), but they couldn’t handle fourth-ranked Villanova on Monday, falling 92-84 as a 3½-point home favorite. Louisville is still 7-2 in its last nine games (2-4 ATS in lined games), but both defeats came against ranked opponents (Villanova and then-No. 3 Kentucky), the only two Top 25 foes Rick Pitino’s squad has faced to date.

Pittsburgh ran its winning streak to seven in a row (5-0-1 ATS in lined action) with Wednesday’s impressive 67-57 rout of No. 15 UConn as a six-point road underdog. That capped a perfect three-game Big East road trip, which started with upsets of Syracuse (82-72 as an 11-point ‘dog) and Cincinnati (74-71 as a four-point pup). The Panthers’ only two losses came on neutral courts against Texas (78-62) and Indiana (74-64). Pitt is 4-0 in Big East action (3-0-1 ATS). At home, Jamie Dixon’s squad is 9-0 (2-3-2 ATS), averaging 66.7 points per game (49 percent shooting) and allowing just 51.3 ppg (34.5 percent).

Louisville knocked off Pitt 69-63 as a two-point home favorite last year, and the teams have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last six meetings. The SU winner has covered the spread in all seven series clashes since Louisville joined the Big East in the 2005-06 season.

The Cardinals counter negative ATS streaks of 3-7 overall and 1-5 on Saturday with positive pointspread runs of 27-9-1 on the road, 42-14-2 in conference play and 9-3 after a SU defeat. Pitt carries ATS trends of 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-2 at home, 4-0-1 after a SU win, 7-3-1 after a spread-cover, 6-0-2 against winning teams and 4-1-1 on Saturday.

Louisville is on “over” runs of 9-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-1 in league play, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-0 after non-cover. Also, the over is 36-17-1 in Pitt’s last 54 Saturday contests, but seven of its last 10 home games have stayed low. Also, the under is 5-2 in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT

(5) Syracuse (16-1, 10-3 ATS) at (10) West Virginia (13-2, 6-8 ATS)

The day’s only matchup of Top 10 teams comes from WVU Coliseum in Morgantown, where the Mountaineers host Syracuse in a key Big East contest.

Since suffering their first defeat of the season – a surprising 82-72 home loss to Pitt as an 11-point favorite on Jan. 2 – the Orange have ripped off three straight double-digit wins (and covers). Syracuse pounded Memphis 74-57 as a 7½-point home favorite in a non-conference game on Jan. 6, then returned to league action with wins over South Florida on Sunday (82-65 as a 15-point home favorite) and Rutgers on Wednesday (81-65 as a 12½-point road chalk). The Orange have played two true road games (both in Big East gyms), going 2-0 SU and ATS.

West Virginia opened the season 11-0 but has since split its last four games (three of which were played on the road). The Mountaineers followed up last Saturday’s 70-68 loss at Notre Dame as a 4½-point favorite with Wednesday’s 69-50 romp at South Florida as a nine-point chalk. West Virginia, which has been held under 70 points in four of its last five games, is 3-2 SU and ATS in Big East outings (1-1 SU and ATS at home). Bob Huggins’ troops are 7-0 at home (2-4 ATS in lined action), outscoring visitors by more than 20 ppg (73.4-53.1).

These teams met twice last year, with Syracuse winning and cashing in both games by scores of 74-61 (as a 1½-point home underdog) and 74-69 in overtime (as a 6½-point pup in the Big East tourney). The Orange are 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings (8-3 ATS). The host has won the last four regular-season contests (3-1 ATS).

Syracuse is riding a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 20-6 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 10-2 in Big East play, 15-5 after a SU victory and 13-4 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a non-cover.

The high-scoring Orange are on “over” runs of 12-5 overall, 6-2 on the road, 7-2 against Big East opponents, 13-3 on Saturday, 20-7 after a SU victory and 16-5 after a non-cover. On the flip side, the under is 13-5 in West Virginia’s last 18 games in Big East play, 4-1 in its last five against winning teams and 4-0 in its last four after a spread-cover. Finally, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE

(21) Ole Miss (13-3, 7-5 ATS) at (9) Tennessee (13-2, 7-4-1 ATS)

Tennessee puts a five-game winning streak on the line when it hosts its second Top 25 opponent to Thompson-Boling Arena this week, as Ole Miss comes calling for an SEC clash.

The Rebels followed up last Saturday’s 80-75 home loss to Mississippi State as a 3½-point home favorite with Wednesday’s 80-76 win at Georgia, coming up just short as a five-point chalk. That puts Ole Miss at 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in true roadies this season. However, the Rebels are 0-2 SU and ATS against ranked opponents, losing to No. 5 Villanova 79-67 as a three-point neutral-site underdog and No. 6 West Virginia 76-66, cashing as an 11½-point road pup.

Despite a team scandal that resulted in several player suspensions, including the dismissal of star guard Tyler Smith, the Vols banded together and shocked top-ranked and unbeaten Kansas 76-68 Sunday, cashing as a five-point home underdog. Then in its SEC opener Thursday, Tennessee came out sluggish and fell behind Auburn by 12 points, only to turn on the jets and cruise to an 81-55 victory as a 14-point home chalk. The Vols have won five in a row (4-0 ATS in lined games), averaging 82 ppg and allowing 66.2 ppg. They’re 9-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at Thompson-Boling Arena.

Ole Miss pounded Tennessee 81-65 as a 5½-point home favorite in last year’s lone meeting, cashing for the third straight time in this rivalry. The home team has won six in a row (4-2 ATS) between these teams and is 10-1 SU in the last 11 clashes (8-3 ATS).

The Rebels have cashed in 10 of their last 14 games after a non-cover, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight conference games and four straight on Saturday. Tennessee is on ATS rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-2 in SEC play and 4-0 against winning teams.

The under is 8-3 in the Rebels’ last 11 on the road and 13-6 in its last 19 after a SU win, but Ole Miss has topped the total in five of seven overall, five of seven in conference and four straight on Saturday. The Vols carry “under” trends of 20-7 overall, 5-1 at home, 9-3 in SEC play and 11-3 after a SU win. Finally, the total has alternated in the last six Ole Miss-Tennessee battles, with last year’s game sneaking under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE

Texas Tech (12-4, 6-4 ATS)) at (3) Kansas (15-1, 6-6-1 ATS)

After suffering consecutive losses to begin the conference season, the Red Raiders now face their toughest test to date when they visit Allen Fieldhouse for a Big 12 battle with No. 3 Kansas, which owns the nation’s longest home-court winning streak at 51 in a row.

Texas Tech got destroyed in its Big 12 opener a week ago, losing 81-52 at Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog, then came home Wednesday and suffered a heartbreaking 94-89 overtime loss to Missouri as a four-point pup. The Red Raiders started the season with nine straight victories, but are just 3-4 since (3-3 ATS), including losing three road games (1-2 ATS). Texas Tech has followed up a five-game ATS run by failing to cash in three of its last four lined contests.

The Jayhawks went to then-No. 16 Tennessee on Sunday and fell to the depleted Volunteers 76-68 as a five-point road favorite to snap their perfect season. Then they went to Nebraska for their Big 12 opener on Wednesday and came out sluggish, falling behind 44-43 at halftime before rolling to an 84-72 victory, pushing as a 12-point road favorite. Kansas has scored more than 70 points in all but two games, but the defense has slipped a bit in the last three contests, giving up 66, 76 and 72 points after yielding 58.2 ppg through the first 13 games.

As part of its 51-game winning streak at Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas is 10-0 at home this year winning games by an average of 31.6 ppg (90.4-58.8) while outshooting visitors 52 percent to 35 percent. However, the last time Bill Self’s squad was at home, it barely got past Cornell 71-66, never threatening to cover as a 21-point favorite.

The Red Raiders stunned Kansas 84-65 as a hefty 10-point underdog last year, making the home team 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings. Furthermore, the host has cashed in nine of the last 10 regular-season clashes. Also, in its last four trips to Lawrence, Kan., Texas Tech has lost by scores of 109-51, 86-52, 96-77 and 108-81, failing to cover in all four games.

Texas Tech is 1-3 ATS in its last four overall (all three non-covers as an underdog). Kansas is on pointspread rolls of 35-17-2 overall, 34-16-1 at home, 17-5-2 in Big 12 play, 6-1 on Saturday and 41-20-2 versus winning teams.

Texas Tech is on “over” tears of 34-15-2 overall, 20-7 on the highway, 21-9-1 in Big 12 action and 11-5-2 on Saturday. Conversely, the Jayhawks are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 21-6 after a SU win and 10-1 at home against opponents with a losing road mark. Also, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS

(20) Georgia Tech (12-4, 7-4 ATS) at (12) North Carolina (12-5, 6-9 ATS)

The Tar Heels, who have already exceeded their loss total from last year, face their second straight ranked conference foe when they return to the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill for an ACC clash with Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets failed to build on the momentum from last Saturday’s 71-67 upset victory over Duke (as a seven-point home favorite), falling 82-75 at Virginia as a two-point road underdog. Georgia Tech, which hadn’t given up more than 74 points all year prior to Wednesday, has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last four games, with both defeats and non-covers coming on the road.

North Carolina got steamrolled at Clemson on Wednesday, falling 83-64 as a five-point road underdog, ending a 10-game winning streak against the Tigers. The Heels are just 5-4 SU in their last nine games (2-5 ATS in lined action), but all four losses (three against ranked foes) came away from Chapel Hill. At home this year, North Carolina is 11-0 (4-5 ATS), averaging 88.5 ppg (53 percent shooting) and yielding 67.6 ppg (38.8 percent).

The Tar Heels destroyed Georgia Tech 104-74 as a 23-point home favorite last year, improving to 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. However, despite last year’s ATS result, the Yellow Jackets have cashed in 11 of the last 15 series clashes (including six of the last nine).

Despite some inconsistent play recently, Georgia Tech is still on ATS rolls of 11-4 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-2 in ACC play, 4-0 on Saturday, 9-4 against winning teams and 4-0 after a SU defeat. North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last five lined games and has failed to cover in 19 of its last 26 league games, but Roy Williams’ squad is on ATS upticks of 11-5 against winning teams, 35-15-1 after a SU defeat and 6-2 after a non-cover.

The Jackets are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 versus winning teams, 7-2 after a SU defeat and 6-2 after a non-cover. On the flip side, UNC is on “under” runs of 4-1 in ACC games, 4-1 after a SU defeat and 4-1 on Saturday. Lastly, four of the last five in this rivalry have topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH

Oklahoma State (13-3, 6-3-1 ATS) at (22) Baylor (13-2, 6-2 ATS)

Two Big 12 opponents coming off tough losses this week hook up at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, where the Cowboys visit Baylor, which needs a big win today to hang onto its national ranking.

Oklahoma State roared out of the gate in Big 12 play last Saturday, destroying Texas Tech 81-52 as a seven-point home favorite, but the Cowboys came crashing back down to earth two days later with a 62-57 overtime loss at archrival Oklahoma, failing as a 1½-point road underdog. Oklahoma State has followed up a five-game winning streak (3-0 in lined play) by splitting its last four games (1-2 ATS), with both losses coming away from home.

Like Oklahoma State, the Bears kicked off the conference season in dominating fashion, crushing Oklahoma 91-60 as a seven-point home favorite last Saturday, running their winning streak to nine in a row (6-0 ATS). However, the bubble burst when Baylor went to Colorado on Tuesday and stumbled 78-71 as a three-point road favorite. The Bears are 8-0 at home – outscoring foes 22 ppg (81.7-59.7) – but only the Oklahoma contest was against a lined opponent.

The home team has dominated this rivalry, winning the last seven in a row while going 5-0 ATS in the last five (all as a favorite). Last January, Baylor won 98-92 as a 5½-point home favorite in overtime, but Oklahoma State got revenge with an 84-74 as a 4½-point chalk a month later. The Bears are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes overall and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Waco.

Despite failing to cash at Oklahoma, the Cowboys are still on impressive pointspread rolls of 17-4-1 overall, 10-2 in Big 12 play, 6-1-1 on Saturday and 14-4-1 against teams with a winning record. Baylor has cashed in six of its last seven overall (all against winning opponents), but otherwise the Bears are in ATS funks of 3-7 at home, 5-13 in conference action, 3-9 after a SU loss and 4-10 after a non-cover.

OSU carries “under” trends of 6-0 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0 in conference and 5-1 on Saturday. Baylor is 11-3-1 “under” in its last 15 league games and 7-2-1 “under” its last 10 after a SU defeat, but the over is 17-7-1 in their last 25 Saturday outings. On the flip side, in this rivalry the “over” is on stretches of 6-1 overall and 4-1 at Baylor.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE

(6) Purdue (14-2, 7-8-1 ATS) at Northwestern (12-4, 8-4 ATS)

The suddenly slumping Boilermakers hope to get back on track when they pay a visit to Welsh-Ryan Arena looking to upend Big Ten rival Northwestern.

Purdue ripped off 14 consecutive wins to start the season, including 12 double-digit blowouts, before going to Wisconsin last Saturday and falling 73-66 as a 1½-point favorite. The Boilermakers returned home Tuesday and took the court as a nine-point chalk against Ohio State, but blew a 10-point lead with four minutes to go and were stunned 70-66 despite a career-high 35 points from Robbie Hummel. Prior to the last two games, Purdue has scored fewer than 67 points just once all season and fewer than 70 points just four times.

The Wildcats took a nine-game winning streak into their Big Ten opener at Illinois, where they lost 89-83 in overtime as an eight-point underdog. That began a current 2-3 SU slump (2-2 ATS), with the lone Big Ten victory coming at Michigan on Sunday (68-62 as an eight-point underdog). That was followed by Wednesday’s 60-50 home loss to Wisconsin as a three-point pup. Northwestern has allowed just two teams to score more than 67 points all year.

Purdue needed a big rally in last year’s trip to Northwestern, pulling out a 63-61 win but falling short as a four-point road favorite. But the Wildcats went to Purdue six weeks later and stunned the Boilermakers 64-61 as a 12½-point road ‘dog, ending a five-game losing streak in the rivalry and improving to 10-4 ATS in the last 14 series battles with Purdue. Prior to last year, the favorite had cashed in seven straight head-to-head meetings. Also, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10.

The Boilers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but otherwise they’re in pointspread ruts of 2-5 overall, 3-8 on the highway and 1-4 in Big Ten play. Northwestern is 7-2 ATS in its last nine overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight against winning teams, but the ‘Cats have failed to cash in four straight games following a SU defeat.

The over is 7-3 in Purdue’s last 10 overall, 5-2 in its last seven on Saturday, 21-10-1 in Northwestern’s last 32 home contests and 11-1 in Northwestern’s last 12 coming off a SU defeat. Finally, five of the last seven in this rivalry have hurdled the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN and OVER

Texas A&M (12-4, 6-5 ATS) at (1) Texas (16-0, 7-5 ATS)

After surviving a scare in its Big 12 opener, Texas puts its unbeaten record on the line once again when it entertains the rival Aggies at the Erwin Events Center.

Texas A&M opened the conference season with last Saturday’s 64-53 win over Nebraska as a seven-point home favorite, then went to 13th-ranked Kansas State on Tuesday and got thumped 88-65 as a nine-point road underdog, ending a three-game winning streak. The Aggies have dropped three straight games away from home (0-3 ATS), and they’re 2-4 (3-3 ATS) against opponents that are or have been ranked this year.

The Longhorns jumped to the top of the polls for the first time in school history on Monday, then went out Wednesday and nearly stumbled at Iowa State, hanging on for a 90-83 win. However, they fell just shy as an eight-point road chalk, their third straight non-cover. Wednesday’s game marked just the third time this year that Texas failed to win by double digits. At home this year, Rick Barnes’ squad is 10-0 (4-2 ATS in lined action), putting up 88.2 ppg (50.8 percent shooting) and yielding 59 ppg (34 percent).

The home team has owned this rivalry, winning the last 11 meetings in a row (8-2-1 ATS). Last year at the Erwin Events Center, Texas gutted out a 67-58 win, but misfired as a 12-point chalk, and the Aggies got revenge several weeks later with an 81-66 victory as a two-point home underdog. Texas A&M is 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes (3-2 ATS in Austin).

The Aggies sport a slew pointspread runs, including 17-8 overall, 37-17 on the road, 11-4 in Big 12 games, 6-2 on Saturday, 22-7 after a SU defeat, 12-3 after a non-cover and 14-6 against winning teams. Texas has cashed in seven of its last nine home games, but it is 6-19-2 ATS in its last 27 conference games and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on Saturday.

The over is on runs of 5-1 for A&M in league games, 5-2 for A&M on Saturday, 5-1 for the Longhorns overall, 4-0 for the Longhorns on Saturday, 5-1 for the Longhorns after a SU win and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER

(13) Wisconsin (14-3, 10-5 ATS) at Ohio State (12-5, 8-9 ATS)

Coming off a huge road upset of sixth-ranked Purdue, the Buckeyes return home and face another ranked opponent as they welcome No. 13 Wisconsin to Value City Arena.

The Badgers improved to 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in tehir last nine games with Wednesday’s 60-50 win at Northwestern, cashing as a three-point favorite. Wisconsin is 4-1 SU and ATS in Big Ten action, the only blemish being a 54-47 loss at No. 10 Michigan State as a six-point road underdog on Jan. 6. Bo Ryan’s team has held seven of its last eight opponents to 58 points or less.

Ohio State has played four of its first five Big Ten games on the road. The first three didn’t go well (0-3 SU and ATS, including a 22-point loss at Wisconsin), and Tuesday’s outing at Purdue wasn’t looking good either until star point guard Evan Turner (career-high 32 points, 23 in the second half) returned from injury and led a huge late charge. Eventually, the Buckeyes overcame a 10-point deficit late in the game to pull out a 70-66 win as a nine-point underdog. Ohio State is 10-0 at home (6-4 ATS), including a 79-54 rout of Indiana as a 14-point chalk in its lone conference contest at Value City Arena.

The Badgers limited Ohio State to just 14 field goals (in 43 attempts) on New Year’s Eve, rolling 65-43 as a six-point home favorite. Wisconsin has taken three of the last four meetings (2-2 ATS), including a 58-53 victory as a 1½-point road underdog in the most recent battle at Ohio State. The host is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, but the visitor has cashed in four of the last five clashes and the ‘dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.

Wisconsin is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 after a SU win, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams. Conversely, the Buckeyes are in pointspread slumps of 2-7 overall and 0-5 after a victory.

Last month’s battle in Wisconsin stayed way under the total, as the under has cashed in each of the last six meetings overall and four of the last five at Ohio State. Furthermore, the Buckeyes are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 8-3 in Big Ten play, 36-15-1 on Saturday and 6-0 against winning teams, while the Badgers are on “under” rolls of 7-1 overall, 9-1 on the road, 35-17 in conference, 14-6 on Saturday, 6-0 against winning teams and 37-16-1 after a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER

SPORTS INSIGHTS

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

With the Public overwhelmingly on Arizona, our readers know who we will favor. Surprisingly, we are taking the favored Saints -- but the Public often goes by the, "What have you done for me lately?" mentality. We will be "selling" Arizona's dramatic OT victory over Green Bay -- and "buying" New Orleans on a down swing -- as they stumbled in the final weeks of the NFL regular season.

In addition to "buying low" and "selling high" -- SportsInsights had several Smart Money alerts come in on New Orleans. Our Members know that we always follow the Smart Money. So there you have it: we get to "bet against the Public" and follow the "Sharps" as we take a rare favorite. We expect the Saints to "come back to form" now that the playoffs have begun for them. The Saints were 13-0 at one point this season -- and they led the league in net points (PF minus PA). Give the points.

New Orleans Saints -7

BANG THE BOOK

The Arizona Cardinals appeared to have magic on their side yet again as they took down the Green Bay Packers in one of the highest scoring games in postseason history 51-45 in overtime. The Cardinals appear to be carrying the perception they did last year at this time as a dangerous underdog. The Cardinals offense has been its best in the postseason over the last two years, but now Arizona will take on the NFL’s top offense in the New Orleans Saints. The Saints had a first round bye so they will be plenty rested after finishing the year with the best record in the NFC at 13-3. However, all of the Saints defeats came in the last 3 weeks of the season and it will be interesting to see if they can relocate their swagger.

The Cardinals defense come up big on a few key plays intercepting Aaron Rodgers very first pass and Karlos Dansby recovered a fumble while running it back for a touchdown on the final play of the game. In between those big plays, the Cardinals secondary gave up plenty of big plays as the game turned into a quarterback dual between Rodgers and Kurt Warner. Rodgers was sensational after the pick racking up 422 yards against the Cardinals defense that just looked very confused too often. The pass defense will be the main concern this weekend as everyone knows that the Saints attack through the air more often than any team in the league. The Saints offense led the NFL for most of the season before sliding in their final few games to 272 yards per game. However, their passing attack led by Drew Brees is among the best there is and they will surely give the Cardinals defense tons of trouble if they play like they did last week.

Even if the Cardinals defense struggles, they still have QB Kurt Warner on their side. Warner proved again last week why he should be Hall of Fame bound as one of the best quarterbacks when it comes playoffs time. Warner completed 29 of 33 passing for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is 88% passing with more touchdowns than incomplete passes, which is simply amazing. The Cardinals will definitely need a lot of offense again this week to pull of the upset. WR Anquan Boldin is still hampering an ankle injury that kept him out of last week’s win against the Packers. While that definitely hurts, it is manageable if the Cardinals get WR Steve Breaston to have another big game. Breaston caught 7 passes for 125 yards to pick up the empty space by Boldin and they need another similar effort. Of course you can never forget about Larry “Mr. Playoffs” Fitzgerald as well, Fitzgerald caught 6 passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers may be a bit off from his record setting pace from last year, but as long as he continues to grab touchdown passes the Cardinals will be fine.

The Saints offense as previously mentioned made defenses look like really bad earlier this year, but the passing offense burned out a bit down the stretch. Brees threw for 4,300 plus yards while completing 70% passing with 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. However, the passing offense was not as efficient in their last few games. Hopefully the Saints can dial up the high power offense again and provide some fireworks. They definitely have the wide receivers to cause all kind of trouble for the Arizona defense.

WR Marques Colston eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark this season along with 9 touchdowns. Also, receivers Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem both combined for 1,500 additional yards and 11 scores. If these guys can find holes early and keep the Arizona safeties on their heels they can really do some damage. However, their success will likely ride on the play of the offensive line. Brees has been protected very well this year, but the Cardinals defensive front is playing well. It is imperative that Brees have time to throw the football or they are doomed. Remember the Cowboys defensive pressure up front ended their shot at a perfect season and they do not need to let another solid defensive front have their way again.

Pick – The Cardinals have reached the under in 5 of their last 7 games and I think the lines are a bit too high following last week’s shootout with the Packers. I’m leaning towards the under here and believe the Cardinals will also keep it within the points as well.

The Indianapolis Colts coaching staff led by Jim Caldwell received a ton of criticism for resting their players and seemingly throwing away the opportunity at a perfect season a few weeks ago. However, now the time is here to see if resting the starters was indeed the correct call. Possibly anything less than an AFC Championship would be a waste considering the Colts had a great chance to become just the 5th team in history to end the year undefeated. However, moving forward the Colts will put their focus to the visiting Baltimore Ravens this Saturday night. The Ravens just flat dominated the New England Patriots last week on both sides of the ball. Running back Ray Rice, who has been the heart of the offense, busted the first play from scrimmage open with an 83 yard touchdown run. The damage inflicted by the Ravens never let up as Rice rumbled for 159 rushing yards to lead efforts in a 33-14 victory over the Patriots.

To make matters worse, the Ravens pass defense played incredible constantly filling the passing lanes, making quick cuts to the ball, and disguising the defense very well. Baltimore shut down Patriots superstar quarterback Tom Brady who just threw for just 132 yards while forcing 3 interceptions during the contests. If those numbers do not head warning for Peyton Manning and company, they definitely should. The Ravens defense is playing extremely well. They are getting excellent pressure up front playing even better in the secondary which will match-up very well against the Colts offense. If they keep Peyton Manning moving and limit the big plays to WR Reggie Wayne, the Ravens will have a good chance at scoring the upset once again.

Of course keeping Manning contained like trying to tame a wild animal. Manning perhaps the best play caller in the league, threw for an NFL 2nd highest 4,500 passing yards this season. WR Reggie Wayne posted over 1,200 yards this season while tight end Dallas Clark was equally effective racking up 1,100 plus yards as well. So needless to say the Ravens secondary will be in for yet another task to stop the Colts passing game. However much like the Patriots, the Colts are fairly a one dimensional offense. Joseph Addai tallied 828 yards this season, but the Colts are anything but a rushing offense. If the Ravens can shut down the air attack, they could have very similar success. Of course that will be a bit more difficult this week as well.

On the Ravens offense, QB Joe Flacco has had a decent 2nd year as starter. Flacco was banged up with a right hip injury last week in the battle with the Patriots. Luckily, Flacco was not needed often attempting just 10 passes throughout the evening. Flacco finished with just 34 yards on 4 completions, but again remember he was rarely needed at all. If the Ravens offense does need to move the ball down field in a hurry, they definitely have the tools to get it done. Flacco completed 63% on the year for 3,613 yards and 21 touchdowns. The Ravens have a lot of confidence in his arm and the playmaking ability of WR Derrick Mason who reached the 1,000 yard receiving mark this season for the 8th time in 9 years. However, the Ravens remain a rushing team. Baltimore has put major focus on running the ball with Rice in the last few weeks and has been a better team as a result. Rice can also produce a lot of damage catching balls out of the backfield so look for them to utilize the play calling around the newfound star very early in the game.

Pick – Under 44

Power Sweep

Simply put the Ravens flat out beat NE LW with 74% of their plays being designed run plays for 229 yds (5.0). The return of SS Reed was huge as it compounded the loss of Welker and exploited NE's lack of a run game. The Ravens now have to travel for the 4th str week vs an IND foe that has something to prove after passing up a 16-0 reg season record. IND is 7-1 SU and 3-5 ATS at home TY with a 384-329 yd edge (4 TO's) and a 26-17 avg score. BAL is 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS on the road being outgained 323-302 (+3 TO's) with a 22-20 avg score. IND beat BAL 17-15 earlier TY as a 1.5 pt AF. IND turned the ball over 3x's vs a BAL D without Suggs with 1 of the TO's being a fmbl on the BAL4. IND needed an int on BAL's final drive to come away with the win and held them to 5 FG's on 4 drives into the red zone.

The Ravens #13 off underwent a surprising change for '09 after leading the NFL in rush att's (592) LY they dropped to 7th TY (468). Cam Cameron put the onus on Flacco in his 2nd yr to speed up his development. Flacco finished in the top half of the NFL in comp %, yds, yds per att, TD's and int which is promising for 2010 as the 3rd yr is when QB's make their biggest jump. BAL has a mediocre at best receiving unit as while Mason continues to impress with his toughness the Ravens lack deep speed and depth. The leading receiver is Rice who leads the NFL in rec's by a RB (13th overall) and TE Heap who has climbed out of Harbaugh's doghouse with a good season. Rice finished 6th in rush TY and was the 1st RB in 33 gms with 100 vs PIT. In Dec BAL avg'd 212 ypg (5.9) rush going back to power football. BAL has fielded 5 diff OL combos TY with Michael Oher (legit ROY cand) doing a great job flipping back and forth between RT and LT. The Ravens #3 D is a bit misleading as they allowed 335 ypg vs playoff tms. BAL's #5 rush D held up well despite DE Ngata (ankle) missing 2. The secondary is very thin especially at CB. SS Reed missed the L5 reg ssn gm with hip and ankle inj's and his impact was key vs NE. BAL was 11th LY in sks (1 every 15.5 pass att's) but TY they fell to 18th (1 every 16.7 pass att's) as LB Suggs missed 3 with an ankle inj and hasn't fully recovered yet. BAL finished 8th in our ST's due to their KR units all'g 20.5 but the loss of Webb (ACL) who had a 26.2 avg is a big blow.

Despite the outcry over the loss of "a perfect season" the fact is that the Colts have 7 str seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 str come-from-behind wins TY and the Colts are the only team in the NFL with DD wins and playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd yr WR Garcon and rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in Wk 1. Despite their inexperience IND finished in the Top 10 (9th) in ttl offense for the 10th time in 11 yrs. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for rec's TY with Wayne and Clark tying for 5th with 100 rec's. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 rec's and the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 rec, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he's been bothered by a shoulder inj. IND's 13 sks all'd is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sks. They didn't have a 100 yd rusher in any game TY and only broke that number as a team 3x's TY. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the D under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. IND also places much more emphasis on spd and sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yds and gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD's vs BUF) which is a big dropoff from LY's 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 TY and had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn't place much priority on LB's. Mathis and Freeney combined for 23 sks despite basically resting for 3 games at the EOY. Once again IND struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).

We'll grab the extra value here with all 4 games going "Over" last week. Baltimore used an 83 yd TD run to jump out to an early lead in their win at NE but after that play they totaled just 185 yds. The Ravens other 1H scoring drives were 17/5pl, 25/6pl and 0/4pl. The defense played inspired ball holding the Patriots to 196 yds. BAL QB Flacco now has a 1-4 ratio in the playoffs and will have extreme pressure on him against the league's #1 sack unit. Indy's offense runs thru QB Manning but the Ravens got S Reed back and have only allowed 211 ypg &12 ppg the L5. Since Baltimore's bye week they have topped this total only once in 11 games and in that win vs Detroit the defense allowed only 3 points.

FORECAST: Ravens/Colts UNDER RATING: 3★

The Cardinals played one of the best offensive games in playoff history with Warner hitting for 379 yds (88%) with 5 TD's. ARZ tallied 531 yds on the #2 D but the irony was the game ending on a defensive TD. The Cardinals are 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS on the road not covering their L4. In those games they were outgained 364-330 (-5 TO's) with a 20-19 avg deficit. NO went 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS at home TY with a 428-332 yd edge (+5 TO's) & 34-20 avg score. The common foes are NYG, CAR, STL & DET. ARZ went 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 360-303 yd edge (-2 TO's) & 26-20 avg score. NO went 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 411-338 yd edge (-4 TO's) & 32-24 avg score. When looking at this gm it's important to note that except for DE Grant (triceps) who landed on IR after the finale, the Saints are getting back all their inj'd def players. The status of ARZ WR Boldin (ankle) is unknown however.

The Cardinals earned their first B2B division title S/'74-'75 and are the 3rd Super Bowl loser to return to the playoffs in the L10Y. ARZ's 1st 10 win season S/'76 went thru the arm of Warner who is the 2nd QB in NFL history to pass for 100 TD's with 2 diff tms (Tarkenton). Warner's #'s are down vs LY (286 ypg, 67%, 30-14) as D's refused to let the duo of Fitzgerald (four 1000 yd seasons in 1st 6Y) and Boldin (five 1000 yd seasons) make big plays and kept them in front of the D. The Cardinals improving run gm also had Whisenhunt dial back the pass att's (40 in 1st 9, 33 in next 6). In the 1st 7 gms ARZ avg'd 65 ypg (3.3) on the ground but as RB Wells adjusted to the NFL, ARZ avg'd 123 ypg (4.7) over the next 8 prior to resting for the finale. The Cardinals OL has been outstanding TY allowing 26 sks (1 every 23 pass att's) and had 27 str gms with the same 5 starters prior to LT Gandy (sports hernia) landing on IR. ARZ released its DC after the SB loss and the #20 D is clone of the Steelers but with less freelancing in the secondary. They remain a high risk/high reward defense as while they are 5th in sks by (1 every 14 pass att's) they are 23rd in pass D with a respectable 22-21 ratio. CB Rodgers-Cromartie's 6 int are the most for an ARZ player since 2003 and Adrian Wilson is just the 10 player in NFL history with 20 sacks and 20 int in a career. The Cardinals 3-4 differs from PIT's as the DL provides pressure and 9 players have at least 2 sks which diffuses the offenses ability to focus on just 1 key pass rusher (ie: DAL's Ware). Dockett is a highly active player who can play inside or outside in 4-3/3-4 snaps and leads the team in sacks and is the leader of the front 7. Whisenhunt has taken great pains to upgrade his special teams and they are a solid 3rd in our rankings thanks to their outstanding KR defense (20.5) and Ben Graham's 40.6 net punting (7th).

While leading the #1 offense TY Brees finished 1st in comp % (70.6), QBR (109.6), TD passes (34) and tied Rodgers and Romo for 2nd with 39 pass plays of 25 or more yds. Brees also spreads the ball around (7 players with 35 or more rec's TY) which diffuses the defense's ability to lock onto a single player. Colston is the only player who's had 1,000 yds rec with Brees at the helm but he's done it 3 of the L4Y. Henderson is the possession WR but the offense really started clicking with a healthy Shockey who opened up the middle of the field. Meachem was GM Loomis' preseason breakout player & he didn't disappoint as his 16.0 ypc was 9th in the NFL. The Saints best previous finish in rushing was 11th in 2003 and TY they came in 6th. The combo of Thomas, Bell and Bush worked despite injuries as Payton rolls with whichever RB he feels will exploit the opposing team. Combined the trio would be 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing TY. NO's OL is a bit overrated with Brees being sacked 20 times (4th, 1 every 27.2 pass att's) due to his lightning quick release. MIA and DAL were the only tms with deep and physical secondaries who were able to jam NO's rec's and throw off the timing enough for the edge rushers to get to Brees (9 sks). Gregg Williams led the Saints to the #9 D after the 1st 5 wks but inj's caught up to them and they finished the year 25th all'g 384 ypg and 23 ppg over the final 11 wks. NO has played much of the season without its starting CB's Greer and Porter with ******* having growing pains as a nickel CB. Sharper tied for the NFL lead with 9 int and MLB Vilma proved that he is a cornerstone player here. NO did lose DE Grant (triceps) vs CAR but will have DT Ellis here and with him in the lineup NO only all'd 103 ypg (4.2) rushing. NO has our #30 ST's due to 4.6 PR avg (31st) and the KR coverage unit giving up 24.5 (29th).

We don't like siding with the obvious here as the 96 pts scored in the ARZ/GB game have inflated this line making it the highest playoff total ever. The reality is that the "Over" is still the way to go. These 2 finished #23 & #26 in pass D & the Saints, of course, finished #1 in total off. A quick look shows us that the next 2 highest totals were both at 55 (IND/DEN '04 & NO/STL '00) and both went Over as well. ARZ may want to run but they know they will need to be aggressive thru the air to match the Saints & LY put up 30+ points in 3 str playoff games. The Saints topped 45 pts 4 times and don't be fooled by their L3 games when they let off the pedal. New Orleans will live or die behind the arm of QB Brees & expect another high scoring game.

FORECAST: Saints/Cardinals OVER RATING: 1★

PLAYBOOK

NEW ORLEANS over Arizona by 7
What’s that sound? It’s New Orleans QB Drew Brees licking
his chops after watching Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers torch
the Arizona pass defense for 422 yards and four TDs in last
week’s playoff loss. After closing the season with three straight defeats,
facing a Cardinals secondary that looked like the Keystone Kops could
be the perfect tonic for Brees and the slumping Saints. Historically,
Arizona has had little success against New Orleans, going 4-10 SU and
ATS, including 1-5 SU and ATS in the Superdome. Our database also
informs us that defending Super Bowl losers are just 8-17-1 ATS in the
playoffs off a win. And with the Saints a solid 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS versus
.625 or greater opposition this season, you’re probably ready to lay the
7 points right now, eh? Not so fast, my friends! Cardinals HC Ken
Whisenhunt packs a vicious bite as an underdog: he’s 17-8-1 ATS taking
points, including 7-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS this season – and 10-0-1 in his
last 11 games! Oh yeh, did we mention he’s also 4-1 SU and a perfect
5-0 ATS in the playoffs? The aforementioned Mr. Brees is only 1-2 SU
and 0-3 ATS in postseason play and the Saints have been ‘Aints in that
role since 1988, going 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS (0-6 ATS versus a nondivision
foe!). But then our database warns that home playoff teams off
three consecutive losses are 3-0 SU and ATS, scoring 34 or more points
in each contest – with every win by 14 or more points. Whew! Like last
week, we’ll likely revisit this game once the number settles in.

INDIANAPOLIS over Baltimore by 3
Ray Lewis and the gang put the hammer down on the Pats last
week, limiting New England’s offense to a season-low 196 total
yards. While that might intimidate most QB’s, we’re not sure if
Peyton Manning is that concerned. After all, the four-time MVP has
not lost to the Black Birds since 2001 (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS). Included in
that streak is a 15-6 playoff win at Baltimore in 2006. However, our
database is certainly concerned: teams entering the postseason that
scored less than 10 points in their season finale are only 2-10 ATS
this decade. Our ‘NFL Playoff Rest or Rust’ article on the
PLAYBOOK.com website also points out that rested home teams in
this round of the playoffs are just 7-9 SU and a money-burning 4-12
ATS since 2005. Even our MIDWEEK ALERT is wary of Indy,
reminding us that the Colts have been outgained in seven of their
last nine contests and that seven of their 14 wins this season were
by four or fewer points. While we don’t see Peyton one-and-done
for the fourth time in five years, we should point out his winless 0-2
SU and ATS career playoff record at home with rest. We’d also be
foolish not to remind you, once again, of Ravens’ HC John
Harbaugh’s incredible 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS mark versus a foe off
a SU loss, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when his team is off a win.
As usual, we’re on the defensive – this time with the league’s 3rdrated
stop unit.