Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 2,2010

Hollywood Sports

Michigan St. at Texas Tech
Prediction: Under

Michigan State (6-6) will be playing the Alamo Bowl with eleven of their players suspended after being involved in a dormitory brawl the day after their season ended. Of particular note, the Spartans will be without their top cover-cornerback (Chris L. Rucker) as well as two starting wide receivers (B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell). Michigan State has the 103rd ranked pass defense in the country while managing only five interceptions all season. They face a tough test in playing the pass-happy Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders (8-4) were 2nd in the country in passing offense while also 5th in the nation with their 36.7 PPG average. The Spartans must keep this Red Raiders' offense off the field to have any chance of staying in this game. Look for this Big 10 team to run the football -- the Spartans rushed for over 135 YPG while the Red Raiders' defense allowed over 125 YPG. Unfortunately for the Spartans, they were the top-ranked passing team in the Big 10 so they will have to resort to a new offensive philosophy given the suspension of those two wideouts. Texas Tech was also second in the nation by compiling 39 sacks -- just another reason why the Spartans will commit to running the football. Michigan State comes off a rough 42-14 loss at home to Penn State -- and the Under is 12-3-1 in the Spartans last sixteen games coming off a double-digit loss at home. Texas Tech has played four straight Unders as well. With a total set over 60 points to account, the tempo of this game will ensure the final score will be well under that elevated number. Take the Under in the Alamo Bowl.

Tony George

Texas Tech -7 vs Michigan St.

While Mike Leech has been fired, the Players do not seem too broken up about it. This team will rally around Interim coach McNeil, who is a firey defensive minded coach. The DEFENSE in fact may play a bigger role than the offense for Tech. Texas Tech is playing a team who suspended 9 players, many of them starters including a go to WR for the Spartans. Michigan State lost 3 out of their last 5 games, and cannot trade punches with Tech on offense.

Word is Texas Tech has rallied around this controversy and will have a strong home field here playing in San Antonio as well. Always a good game, this Alamo Bowl goes to the team who can oversome adversity, as both teams have had, but the DEPTH in Talent on the field favors Texas Tech.Taylor Potts at QB for Texas tech knows this offense and will dink and dunk all night. This Tech team lit up Nebraskas vaunted defense in Lincoln for 31 points, they will score in this one.

Texas Tech 38 Michigan State 24

TEDDY COVERS
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Mississippi @ Oklahoma St.
PICK: Oklahoma St. +3
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Ole Miss came into the season with a Top 5 national ranking and SEC championship dreams. Instead, Houston Nutt’s Rebels suffered a pair of early season losses when their offense was unable to move the football at all against South Carolina and Alabama. The Rebels suffered two more losses later in the year against Auburn and Mississippi State. In those two defeats, the Rebels biggest weakness was on the defensive side of the football; unable to stop the power rushing game in both instances, with their best defensive lineman, Greg Hardy, out for the year. QB Jevan Snead is no gamebreaker, the SEC’s leader in interceptions this season, struggling with his accuracy, his decision making and his confidence. Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster were both legitimate playmakers, but this offense lacks many complementary pieces. Oklahoma State has those complementary pieces, as evidenced by their nine win season despite losing star receiver Dez Bryant to ineligibility and star running back Kendall Hunter to injury. The Cowboys came up very short against the two best defenses they faced – Texas and Oklahoma. But Okie State moved the football up and down the field against nearly every other defense they faced, scoring 30+ on eight different occasions. Ole Miss won this bowl last year; we’ll call for a lesser performance this time around against an Oklahoma State team that came up short in the Holiday Bowl last December. 2* Take Oklahoma State.

Jim Feist

Memphis vs. Phoenix
Play: Over 227

A long road trip for Memphis and Phoenix shows no mercy on road weary teams. Just ask the short handed Celtics, whom the Suns ran into the ground the last game. Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye scored 26 points apiece, and the Suns handed what was left of the Celtics their third straight loss, 116-98 on Wednesday night. The Suns shot 50% and are on a 5-0 run over the total. Memphis has a young, athletic team that can run with the Suns, too, on a 4-0 run over the total. They've won 3 of 4 despite giving up over 100 points in all four. Look for an offensive show, play the Grizzlies/Suns Over the total.

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

INTERNATIONAL BOWL
(at Toronto)

Northern Illinois (7-5, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-6 ATS)

South Florida is going bowling for the fifth straight season and will take on Mid-American Conference opponent Northern Illinois at the Rogers Centre north of the border.

The Huskies became bowl-eligible by mid-November after a four-game winning streak that left them at 7-3 through 10 games. However, Northern Illinois stumbled to the finish line, losing at Ohio (38-31 as a 1½-point underdog) and at Central Michigan (45-31 as a 13½-point pup) – the two teams that represented the MAC in its league championship game. The Huskies failed to cover in six of their final nine games, including the last three in a row.

South Florida jumped out to a 5-0 start (3-0 ATS in lined games) for the third straight year, including a shocking 17-7 upset win at Florida State. But the Bulls, who lost third-year starting QB Matt Grothe to a season-ending injury in Week 3, dropped five of their final seven contests both SU and ATS and were thus relegated to a lesser bowl.

These teams met in consecutive seasons in 2001 and 2002, and they split the two contests, with South Florida winning the most recent matchup 37-6 as a seven-point chalk.

All four of the Bulls’ bowl appearances have come under coach Jim Leavitt, and they’ve split the first four both SU and ATS. Last year, USF crushed Memphis in the St. Petersburg Bowl 41-14 as an 11½-point chalk, one year after getting hammered by Oregon in the Sun Bowl (56-21 as a six-point favorite).

Northern Illinois has qualified for consecutive bowl games for the first time in school history, and the Huskies are in the postseason for the fourth time in the last six years, going 2-2 SU and ATS. Last year, they fell to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl 17-10 as a 1½-point underdog.

The Big East has won all three International Bowl games against the MAC (2-1 ATS).

The Huskies scored 26 points or more in 10 of their final 11 games, including the last six games in a row when they averaged 32 ppg. For the season, NIU put up 30.8 points and 354.1 total yards per game, including a whopping 202.4 rushing ypg. The defense surrendered just 21.2 points and 323.6 yards per contest (119 rushing ypg).

With Grothe sidelined, the South Florida offense was in the hands of redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels, who was wildly inconsistent in completing just 52.7 percent of his throws for 1,766 yards, 12 TDs and nine INTs. Daniels did do a lot of damage on the ground with 798 rushing yards and nine TDs. During their 2-5 SU and ATS slump to close the regular season, USF scored 17 points or less four times, and the defense yielded an average of 29.6 ppg after holding the first five opponents to a total of 47 points (9.4 per game).

Northern Illinois is in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 0-4 at neutral sites and 0-7 versus teams with a winning record, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five when catching between 3½ to 10 points. The Bulls, in addition to failing to cover in five of their last seven overall, are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 against winning teams.

The under is on runs of 5-0 for the Huskies in non-conference play, 15-7-1 for the Huskies as an underdog and 4-0 for South Florida in non-Big East games. Conversely, the Bulls have topped the total in six of eight overall, four in a row after a SU defeat and eight of nine when favored by 3½ to 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
(at Birmingham, Ala.)

UConn (7-5, 9-2 ATS) vs. South Carolina (7-5, 7-4 ATS)

Two teams that closed the regular season going in opposite directions meet up at Legion Field, where the Huskies shoot for their fourth straight victory in a battle with struggling South Carolina.

UConn needed to sweep its final three games to qualify for its third straight bowl game, and it accomplished the task with narrow wins over Norte Dame (33-30 in overtime as a six-point ‘dog) and South Florida (29-27 as a 7½-point home chalk) sandwiched around a 56-31 home rout of Syracuse as a 13 -point favorite. Prior to the 3-0 run, the Huskies had dropped three in a row by a total of 10 points. In fact, their five losses this year were by a total of five points.

The Gamecocks put the skids on a three-game losing streak with a season-ending 34-17 rout of then-No. 15 Clemson on Nov. 28, prevailing as a three-point home underdog. Steve Spurrier’s squad jumped out to a 5-1 start before losing four of its last six. Also, South Carolina covered in its first four games, then went in a 1-4 ATS funk in lined games before cashing in its final two.

This is the first meeting between these schools.

UConn throttled Buffalo 38-20 as a seven-point favorite in last year’s International Bowl, improving to 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Randy Edsall. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were completely noncompetitive in last year’s 31-10 Outback Bowl loss to Iowa as a seven-point favorite, dropping to 4-10 SU all-time in bowl games and 1-2 SU and ATS in three bowls under Spurrier. The Ol’ Ball Coach is a mediocre 7-8 SU and ATS when patrolling the sidelines in the postseason.

The Big East is a perfect 3-0 all-time in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, but has failed to cash in the last two.

UConn’s offense turned it up a notch over the final seven weeks of the season, scoring at least 24 points in all seven games, including averaging 40.8 ppg in the last four. For the season, the Huskies produced nearly 400 total ypg, including 172.8 rushing ypg. On the flip side, the defense crumbled down the stretch, allowing an average of 30 ppg over the final eight contests after surrendering just 15 ppg through the first four weeks. Opposing offenses netted 382.4 total ypg against UConn, including 244.8 through the air.

Prior to the 34-point outburst in the season finale against Clemson, the South Carolina offense tallied a total of 63 points in its previous five games (12.6 ppg), losing four of the five. For the season, it managed just 21.8 ppg and 359.2 total ypg. Also, during the three-game losing streak that preceded the upset of Clemson, the ‘Cocks’ defense got torched for 29.3 ppg. Otherwise, they gave up 17.4 ppg in the other nine contests. South Carolina had the 12th best pass defense in the country, yielding just 167.7 ypg through the air.

The Huskies had failed to cover in 14 straight lined games as a road underdog coming into this season, but they went 5-0 ATS as a road pup this year and they’ve cashed in six straight when catching points regardless of venue. UConn, which had the best regular-season pointspread mark in college football, is on additional ATS tears of 10-2 overall, 7-2 against winning teams, 35-17-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 after a SU win.

South Carolina entered 2009 on a 12-5 ATS run as a chalk, but failed to cash in three of four as a favorite this year. On the bright side, the ‘Cocks have covered in four straight against winning squads.

The Huskies topped the total in each of their last seven games and seven of their last eight lined contests, and the over is 5-2 in their last seven non-league affairs and 4-1 in their last five as a ‘dog. South Carolina carries “over” trends of 4-1 as a favorite, 6-2 after a SU win, 20-8-1 after a spread-cover, but the under is 6-3 in its last nine non-league outings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and OVER

COTTON BOWL
(at Arlington, Texas)

Ole Miss (8-4, 5-5 ATS) vs. (21) Oklahoma State (9-3, 5-5-1 ATS)

Ole Miss returns to Texas to defend its Cotton Bowl title when it takes on Oklahoma State in an SEC/Big 12 matchup at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium.

The Rebels began the year thinking national title, as they were ranked as high as No. 4 going into their SEC opener at South Carolina in Week 3. However, Ole Miss dropped that game 16-10 as a four-point road favorite, leading to a 5-4 record over its final nine contests against Division I-A competition. In the regular-season finale, Houston Nutt’s squad lost 41-27 at archrival Mississippi State as a 7½-point road favorite, falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four lined outings (all as a favorite).

Like Ole Miss, Oklahoma State ended the regular season with a blowout loss to its instate rival, getting blanked 27-0 at Oklahoma as an eight-point underdog. The defeat snapped a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) for the Cowboys, who won eight of their final 10 games, but the two losses to Texas (41-14 at home) and Oklahoma were by a combined score of 68-14.

Ole Miss pummeled eighth-ranked Texas Tech 47-34 as a four-point underdog in last year’s Cotton Bowl, improving to 7-2 SU against Big 12 opponents in bowl games, winning the last six in a row. The Rebels are in consecutive January bowls for the first time since 1970-71.

This is the Cowboys’ fourth consecutive bowl trip – a school record – all under coach Mike Gundy, and they went 2-1 SU and ATS in the first three. The one blemish came in the Holiday Bowl last year, when Oklahoma State went to San Diego and lost 42-31 to Oregon as a 2½-point underdog.

The SEC has dominated this annual January contest, winning five of the last six both SU and ATS. That includes the Eli Manning-led Rebels’ 31-28 win over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point chalk in the 2003 Cotton Bowl. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 15 Cotton Bowls going back to 1994.

Both teams are led by experienced quarterbacks, though both failed to live up to expectations this season. Ole Miss junior Jevan Snead, who dominated Texas Tech in last year’s Cotton Bowl, completed just 54.3 percent of his passes for 2,464 yards with 20 TDs offset by 17 INTs, the latter figure tying Miami’s Jacory Harris for most picks in the country. Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson connected on 60.5 percent of his throws, but for only 1,780 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs. While the quarterbacks struggled, both have superior rushing attacks, with the Rebels averaging 182.8 ypg on the ground (4.8 per carry), slightly behind the Cowboys’ 192.4 rushing ypg (4.4 per carry)

Ole Miss scored 38 points or more five times and tallied 27 or more in eight of 13 games, finishing with the exact same scoring average as Oklahoma State (30.2 ppg). The Rebels defense was stout most of the year, yielding just 18.6 points and 319.3 total yards per outing, but 140.3 rushing ypg.

Take away the ugly losses to Oklahoma and Texas, and the Cowboys scored at least 24 points in every other game and averaged 34.8 ppg in those 10 contests. The defense yielded more than 28 points just three times and for the season gave up an average of 21.8 ppg and just 329.8 total ypg. OSU ranked sixth nationally against the run, surrendering just 87.7 ypg (2.9 ypc).

Ole Miss is on positive ATS runs of 6-0 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 in bowl games, 9-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a SU defeat and 8-3 on artificial turf. On the downside, they’ve failed to cover in three of four as a favorite, and they’re 0-10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a chalk of three points or less and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus the Big 12 (the one cover coming against Texas Tech in last year’s Cotton Bowl).

Oklahoma State has cashed in 11 of 16 on artificial turf and five straight when coming off a game in which they scored 20 points or less, but the Cowboys have failed to get the money in five straight as an underdog and four of five after a non-cover.

The Rebels are on “over” tears of 4-1 overall and 6-0 in non-conference play, but the under is 36-16 in their last 52 games after a SU loss. Meanwhile, OSU is on “under” runs of 4-2 overall, 4-0 after a defeat, 4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and UNDER

LIBERTY BOWL
(at Memphis, Tenn.)

Arkansas (7-5, 7-4 ATS) vs. East Carolina (9-4, 6-6 ATS)

After a one-year postseason hiatus, the Razorbacks return to a bowl game, and they draw Conference USA champion Eastern Carolina, which is looking to avenge last year’s Liberty Bowl loss.

Arkansas had a shot at ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak, but it failed to finish at LSU in the regular-season finale, losing 33-30 in overtime. However, the Razorbacks covered as a 3½-point underdog, so they enter this contest on a 4-0 ATS run and a 7-2 ATS roll since the calendar flipped to October.

The Pirates closed the regular season on a four-game winning surge (3-1 ATS), capped by a 38-32 upset victory over Houston as a two-point home underdog on Dec. 5. East Carolina went 6-1 (5-2 ATS) down the stretch, with all six wins coming in Conference USA play and the one defeat coming against then-22nd-ranked Virginia Tech (16-3 as a 12½-point home ‘dog).

This is the first time these schools have squared off on the football field.

Arkansas is in the postseason for the first time under second-year coach Bobby Petrino, who went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in bowl games as Louisville’s coach. The Razorbacks have dropped 11 of 13 postseason games since 1986 (3-8 ATS), and they’ve come up short in all three Liberty Bowl appearances, the most recent coming in 1987.

East Carolina coach Skip Holtz has now led his troops to four straight bowl games, though last year’s Liberty Bowl trip ended with a disappointing 25-19 loss to Kentucky as a three-point favorite. The Pirates are 1-2 SU and ATS in this bowl game.

With Kentucky’s win over East Carolina last year, the SEC is now perfect 3-0 SU and ATS since the Liberty Bowl began matching a low-level SEC opponent against the Conference USA champion in 2006. That includes back-to-back outright upsets the last two years.

Led by 6-foor-6 QB Ryan Mallett (57.2 percent, 3,422 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs), the Razorbacks’ high-powered offense produced at least 30 points in each of their final five games, averaging 45 ppg during the stretch. Despite surrendering 33 points at LSU in the finale, the defense held six of its final nine opponents to 23 points or less (nine-game average of 23.6 ppg). That said, the Hogs’ stop unit got run over for more than 400 total ypg (150.1 rushing ypg).

East Carolina averaged 38.5 ppg during its six-game Conference USA winning streak, and prior to the 38-32 win over Houston in the league title game, the Pirates held six straight opponents to 21 points or less (17.7 ppg). However, in three games versus BCS conference opponents (West Virginia, North Carolina and Virginia Tech), East Carolina got outscored 82-40, going 0-3 SU and ATS.

In addition to ending the regular season with four consecutive spread-covers, Arkansas is on ATS upticks of 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 after a spread-cover. East Carolina is on pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 9-4 as an underdog and 8-3 when catching 3½ to 10 points, but the Pirates have failed to get the money in six consecutive lined non-conference affairs.

Arkansas has stayed under the total in six straight bowl games and four straight postseason contests in January. On the other hand, the over is 4-1 in the Razorbacks’ last five overall, 9-2 in their last 11 as a favorite and 12-5 in their last 17 non-SEC contests. Likewise, East Carolina carries “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-league action, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-0 at neutral sites and 4-1 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

ALAMO BOWL
(at San Antonio, Texas)

Michigan State (6-6, 4-6-1 ATS) vs. Texas Tech (8-4, 6-5 ATS)

Three days after the controversial firing of longtime coach Mike Leach, Texas Tech ends a tumultuous week with a matchup against the depleted Spartans at the Alamo Dome.

Leach was suspended indefinitely by Texas Tech officials early this week amid allegations of mistreatment of a player. Leach, who also had served as the Red Raiders’ offensive coordinator, sought a court order in attempt to coach in this game, but on Wednesday he was terminated after 10 seasons with the school (all 10 ending in bowl games). Defensive coordinator will serve as Tech’s coach tonight.

Michigan State is dealing with its own mess, as eight players (including four starters, two on both sides of the ball) have been suspended because of an altercation on campus. Most notable among those who will sit out are WRs B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell, who combined for 74 receptions and were the team’s second and third leading receivers.

On the field, the Spartans have been idle since Nov. 21, when they fell to Penn State 42-14 as a three-point home underdog. Michigan State started October with a three-game winning streak to, but won just three of its final five games, while also going 1-4-1 ATS in its last six contests.

Like Michigan State, the Red Raiders began October with three straight wins – all double-digit blowouts by a combined score of 145-52 – but they lost two of their next three before ending the year on a high note with home wins over Oklahoma (41-13 as a six-point underdog) and Baylor (20-13 as a 20½-point home chalk). Texas Tech alternated spread covers in its last six games and was 4-5 ATS over its final nine contests (2-4 ATS as a favorite).

This is the first meeting between these schools.

Michigan State is going bowling for the third straight year under coach Mark Dantonio, but they lost the last two (1-1 ATS), including a 24-12 setback to Georgia in last year’s Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. In fact, the Spartans are looking for their first bowl victory since 2001, having lost the last three in a row (1-2 ATS), including a 17-3 setback to Nebraska as a three-point underdog in the 2003 Alamo Bowl.

Although Texas Tech reached a bowl in all 10 seasons under Leach, it has a poor postseason track record, going 10-21-1 SU all-time in bowl games (0-2 SU and ATS in the Alamo Bowl). However, the Red Raiders were a respectable 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS under Leach. Last year, Tech went to the Cotton Bowl as a four-point favorite and got steamrolled by Ole Miss 47-34, failing to cover for the fourth straight time in the postseason.

The Big 12 has won three of the last four Alamo Bowls, but since Michigan State’s loss to Nebraska in 2003, the Big Ten representative has gotten the money each of the last five years. During that stretch, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in this bowl game.

Prior to the blowout loss to Penn State to end the regular season, Michigan State had put up 34, 49 and 40 points in three straight games. The offense averaged 407.1 total ypg (including 271.2 passing ypg), but the Spartans were very inconsistent when it came to scoring, producing 30 or more points six times, tallying between 24-27 points four times and managing 14 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Iowa (the two toughest defenses MSU faced all year).

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State gave up 25.1 points and 364.3 yards per outing, including a stout 112.8 rushing ypg. While the Spartans held five of their final eight opponents to 20 points or less, they also gave up 29 points or more six times, going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.

Leach’s offense took a bit of a step back after being one of the top units in the country last year, but the Raiders still ranked in the Top 10 in scoring (36.7 ppg, 9th), total offense (461.8 ypg, 7th) and passing (380.7 ypg, 2nd). Leach had a difficult time settling on a replacement for last year’s star QB Graham Harrell, as Taylor Potts and Steve Sheffield split time and ended up passing for a combined 4,199 yards, 33 TDs and 16 INTs. As usual, Tech didn’t even try to establish the run, averaging just 81.1 rushing ypg, which ranked 114th out of 120 teams.

Under McNeill’s guidance, Texas Tech had a solid year defensively, yielding just 21.8 points and 349.4 yards per game (125.7 rushing ypg). The Red Raiders gave up 13 points in each of their final two games and held six of their final seven foes to 24 points or less.

Michigan State has cashed in nine of 12 after a non-cover, but is otherwise in ATS funks of 1-4-1- overall, 1-4 against the Big 12, 1-6 as an underdog and 1-7 against winning teams. Texas Tech also carries a slew of poor ATS numbers, including that 0-4 mark in bowl games (all as a favorite), 0-4 against the Big Ten, 1-3-1 in non-conference play and 0-5 at neutral sites (all as a favorite).

The Spartans are on “over” upticks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 after a loss and 40-17-2 as an underdog. Texas Tech stayed low in its final four regular-season contests, but the over is 4-1 in its last five bowl games and 9-4 in its last 13 following a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Louisville (10-3, 4-4 ATS) at (3) Kentucky (14-0, 6-6 ATS)

This annual matchup of instate rivals takes place at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., as Rick Pitino’s Cardinals will try to snap the season-opening 14-game win streak of John Calipari’s Wildcats.

Louisville comes in having won five straight games over inferior competition (2-1 ATS), including a 73-52 victory over South Florida on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 13-point home chalk. The Cardinals have had trouble stopping teams on the road, allowing 76 points a game and permitting the opposition to shoot 48.2 percent from the floor.

In Calipari’s inaugural season in Kentucky, he’s already turned the program around, with several marquee wins over the likes of North Carolina, UConn, Indiana and Stanford (in overtime). On Tuesday, the Wildcats destroyed Hartford 104-61, cashing as a massive 31½-point favorite at Rupp Arena. Kentucky averages a whopping 87.1 points a game on its home court and shoots 51.9 percent from the floor while limiting the opposition to 65.4 points a game and 38 percent shooting.

Louisville scored a 74-71 home win in this rivalry last season, but came up short as a 7½-point favorite. The Wildcats have gotten the cash in four of the last five clashes, but lost outright at Rupp Arena in 2008, 89-75 as a 1½-point home ‘dog. The road team has cashed in five of the last six series matchups.

The Cardinals are on ATS slides of 0-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in non-conference action, but they have cashed in 26 of 35 road games. Kentucky is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 against Big East foes, but just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a spread-cover.

For Louisville, the “under” is 12-5 in its last 17 against SEC teams, but it is otherwise on “over” runs of 6-0 in non-conference games, 5-0 on Saturdays, 5-1 on the road and 4-1 after a straight-up win. The Wildcats are on “over” streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 in non-conference games and 4-0 at home. In this rivalry, the “under” is 8-2 in the last 10 clashes, including 4-1 in the last five at Rupp Arena.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY

(1) Kansas (12-0, 5-4 ATS) at (21) Temple (11-2, 9-4 ATS)

The top-ranked Jayhawks make a non-conference stop at Liacouras Center in Philadelphia for a showdown with Temple.

Kansas has only been tested once this season and that was back on Nov. 17 when it edged Memphis 57-55 on a neutral court in the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, coming up well short as a 10½-point favorite. The Jayhawks average 87.8 points a game and shoot 52 percent from the field while allowing just 58.6 points and limiting the opposition to 36.4 percent shooting, including 24 percent from beyond the 3-point line.

The Owls have some big wins under their belts this season, already scoring a victory over then-No. 3 ranked Villanova 75-65 on Dec. 13, cashing as three-point home ‘dogs. Temple went to Northern Illinois on Wednesday and scored a 70-60 victory, but came up just short as a 12-point road chalk, ending a 4-0 ATS streak. The Owls are all about defense, allowing just 52.7 ppg at home on just 37.7 percent shooting.

These squads squared off last season at Allen Fieldhouse in Kansas with the Jayhawks rolling to a 71-59 victory, narrowly getting the cash as 10½-point favorites.

Kansas is on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 34-16-1 overall, 7-3 on the road, 6-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 on Saturdays and 40-18-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Owls are pretty good at the betting window as well, currently on ATS streaks of 44-21-1 overall, 23-8 at home, 4-1 in non-conference action, 10-4 against teams with winning records and 4-0 after a non-cover.

The Jayhawks are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 6-2 on the road, 5-2 in non-conference games, 19-7 after a straight-up win and 5-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Temple is also on several “under” runs that include 19-7-1 overall, 16-5 at home, 11-3-1 in non-conference action, 5-0-1 on Saturdays and 18-7 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati vs. Rutgers
Play: Cincinnati: -4.5

Cincy has come nice edges in this one tonight vs Rutgers. They are 3-1 ats this year vs teams who allow less than 65 points per game or less and come in off a solid win vs Uconn. They have played a tougher schedule than Rutgers as well. The Scarlet Knights are some what improved this year. However they are 1-10 after allowing 80 or more points, 5-12 vs good defensive teams who allow 65 or less, and have lost 33 of the last 38 conference games. January has been particular tough on Rutgers as they have lost 14 of 17 times. Look for Cincinnati to get the win and cover tonight.

LT Profits

Connecticut vs South Carolina

The Connecticut Huskies and South Carolina Gamecocks were both 7-5 straight up this season, but Connecticut was one of the best bets in the country all year going 10-2 against the spread, and we look for this underrated team to pull the upset here.

These teams seemed to be going in opposite directions at the end of the year, and we feel that both that positive and negative momentum will be reflected in this contest. The Huskies were forced to mourn the loss of cornerback Jasper Howard in mid-October, and that took an emotional toll on them for a while. However, they closed out the season on a three-game winning streak, using the death of Howard as a motivational force.

As for South Carolina, they started the season hot but then struggled down the stretch, going just 2-4 down the stretch with one of those wins being just 14-10 vs. a weak Vanderbilt team and the other win coming out of conference vs. Clemson. Yes, losing to Florida is acceptable, but the Gamecocks were also blown out 31-13 by Tennessee during the stretch, the same Tennessee team that was blown out of its bowl game.

Now we are normally avid supporters of the SEC in bowls, but the mid-level teams in that normally strong conference have underperformed this bowl season, with LSU and Kentucky joining Tennessee in defeat. We saw that the offensive struggles LSU has all year continued in their bowl yesterday, and we feel the same will be true of the Cocks here, whose suspect offense always makes them a dicey proposition when laying more than a field goal.

Meanwhile, Connecticut does have the running game to push the South Carolina defense around a bit, and that should turn out to be the key to this contest. The Huskies averaged 172.8 rushing yards per game this year, as Jordan Todman rushed for over 1100 yards and 14 touchdowns and Andre Dixon added over 900 yards and 13 scores. That excellent tandem can have success vs. a Gamecocks run defense that allowed an ordinary 4.1 yards per carry away from home.

Finally, even if Connecticut does not win outright, the hook attached to the field goal makes this spread worth taking, as if South Carolina does win, we do not think it will be by more than three points.

Pick: Connecticut +3.5

DAVID MALINSKY

Northern Illinois @ South Florida
PICK: South Florida -6.5

The bottom line for the M.A.C. now shows a hideous 13-game losing streak in bowls, and to fully understand that it must be noted that it is not because they are being forced to step all that far up in class – these are losses against mostly teams from their own class, and when they do face a team from a BCS conference it is someone that has had a disappointing season. So far in 2009 they have fallen victim to the likes of Idaho and Marshall, arguably the two weakest teams to earn bowl spots. And the reasons are simple – first, this league just does not have the speed and athleticism to match up against the rest of the nation when the opposition is taking the games seriously (keep in mind that some of those regular-season successes in non-conference games can come from opponents taking M.A.C. teams lightly). Second, most of the schools are based in locations that make December practices awkward and inefficient, at best. Which takes us to this game, which we see as simply more of the same, with a slow Northern Illinois squad subject to being fully exploited in this setting.

This will be the fourth straight season for the Big East to face the M.A.C. in this bowl, and the results so far have been deceptive – although the Big East is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, the talent gap has been even wider than the scoreboards have been able to show. Two years ago Rutgers nearly pulled off the bowl rarity of a “Double 300”, rushing for 292 yards and passing for 303 in an easy win over Ball State. And LY’s 38-20 scoreboard win for Connecticut over Buffalo did not even come close to measuring the game on the field, with the Huskies out-rushing the Bulls by a 358-24 count, one of the widest gaps ever for that category in a bowl game.

So now we fast forward to this season and what is different? Not all that much. If anything the matchup becomes even more awkward, for while South Florida does have issues in terms of discipline year-in and year-out, the Bulls bring as much speed and athleticism as any team in the Big East, and that provides a tough challenge for a Northern Illinois team that is severely challenged in those areas. The Huskies play smart football and when in against their own class have been able to control the line of scrimmage, but they went 0-4 against bowl teams this season, including losses to light-weights Idaho and Ohio, and in what should have been their step-up game, that regular-season finale at Central Michigan, they were beaten by much worse than the 45-31 final score, allowing the Chippewas to roll to a 38-10 lead after three quarters, and over 200 yards both running and passing. Now they find the running lanes closed here, and a passing attack that produced only 151.7 yards per game, #109 in the nation, can not pick up the slack.

South Florida has played twice since the last time Northern was on the field, and practicing in Tampa in December is much more pleasant than what the Huskies have had to do. The time off provides the opportunity to finally tweak the offense around B. J. Daniels, who had to go right into the mix when Matt Grothe went down, and Daniels had to learn under real pressure, with seven of his nine starts coming against bowl opponents. In throwing for 1,766 yards and 12 TD’s, and running for 798 yards and two more scores, he brings an explosiveness this defense rarely faces, and the added practice time means a chance to get more comfortable in the offense, creating the opportunity for a lot of big plays.

Timothy Black

No Illinois vs. South Florida
Play: No Illinois +7

Northern Illinois has a defense ranked in the top 25 in the nation while South Florida has struggled to move the ball and put points on the board. The Hukies defense keeps this a close ball game but the Bulls of South Florida will prevail in the end. South Florida 24, Northern Illinois 20

EZWINNERS

East Carolina Pirates +7.5

The Razorbacks bring their high powered offense to the Liberty Bowl to face the Pirates, but its nothing new to the veteran ECU defense. Playing in Conference USA the Pirates are used to seeing high powered offenses. The key to this game will be the offense of ECU that has really come together at the end of the season. ECU should be able to trade points with the Hogs throughout the game. Skip Holtz team's are 22-7-1 against the spread the last thirty times they have been dogged. Take the points.

Mike Hook

LSU -4 vs Utah

This is the type of line you get when their are loads of games to bet on. Let's face it, oddsmakers are short on time just like the rest of us. They don't get every line right, and this is one of them. Anyone that follows me knows how high i am on the Mountain West Conference in general. But this Utah team just isn't that good, especially when compared to past Utah teams. I like fading this team, as there is still the name recognition that follows this team.

This game has a few factors that i love backing when betting on basketball games. First and foremost is the motivation factor. Last year, LSU lost to Utah by 30 points. That's just not going to happen today, as i fully expect LSU to exact some revenge today. Head Coach Trent Johnson is a former assistant at Utah as well, so he understands how this Utes program works. So combining Coach Johnson with the revenge factor here tonight gives us a likely scenario of LSU playing hard tonight.

With LSU playing hard, i simply don't see how they don't win this game by double digits. Utah has been terrible this year on the glass, as they are pathetic rebounders. That's a bad sign when playing on the road, especially with an athletic team like LSU. Utah did beat Illinois, but then what? This team has lost on the road against Oklahoma St, Weber St, and Pepperdine. Even worse, theyi lost to Pepperdine by double digits! I trust LSU so much more, as they simply are the better overall team at home and on revenge.

Lastly, Utah could be without one of their top players today, Carlon Brown. Without Brown, the Utes have struggled to score. They aren't a very atheltic team, and they struggle on the road. Proof of that is in the losses to Weber St. and Pepperdine. LSU has yet to lose at home this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 so far this season. LSU is also coming off back to back losses, so i expect them to be angry and excited to be back on their home floor. Combine the revenge angle as well for LSU, and i think we have found a nice winner. LSU -4 is my free play for today, as i play it for 1 UNIT!

CKO

10 E. CAROLINA over Arkansas
EAST CAROLINA 35 - Arkansas 34

C-USA sources report that ECU’s battle-tested sr. QB Pinkney (264 ypg, 66%; no ints. L4 games) has fully regained his mojo over the final month of season after uneven play earlier in ‘09. So, expect well-protected Pinkney & scintillating WR D. Harris (79 catches, 6 TDs) to repeatedly hook up vs. 104th-ranked Arkansas pass defense. The steady, veteran Pirate defense, which has effectively coped with several high-octane C-USA attacks, well-equipped to mitigate impact of Hog QB Mallett. Focused ECU eager to avenge LY’s stinging 25-19 loss in the same bowl, when Kentucky beat the Pirates on a 56-yd. fumble return with 3:02 to play. Skip Holtz’s squad 22-10 as a dog since ‘05, and 7-pt. bowl dogs are 66% play since ‘98. Upset very possible

TOTALS: OVER (51) in the Connecticut-South Carolina Game (Papajohn’s Bowl, Sat., Jan. 2)——Steve Spurrier happy he doesn’t have to face another SEC defense; Huskies relentless if behind.

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

NORTHERN ILLINOIS
When else but in bowl season would we be breaking down a matchup
between Northern Illinois and South Florida, being played over the border
at the home of the Toronto Blue Jays and Argonauts? The Huskies, however,
are another of those “7+” bowl dogs for this January 2 International Bowl battle at
the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and note how those bowl dogs receiving 7 points
or more are a sterling 61-32 vs. the number this decade. NIU is also 6-1 vs. the
number its last 7 against non-MAC foes away from DeKalb.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (International, January
2)...Toronto a long way from Tampa in early January, at least this one is
indoors! NIU no covers its last 4 away from DeKalb TY after 8-2 mark previous
10 on board away from home. Huskies 6-1 vs. line last 7 vs. non-MAC foes away
from home and are a desired "7+" bowl dog. USF a bit non-descript in most
categories (including bowls under Leavitt, 2-2 SU and vs. line). Note MAC teams
0-5 vs. line in bowls LY. Tech edge-NIU, based on team and bowl trends.

UCONN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Papajohns.com, January 2)...Edsall 9-
2 vs. line TY and 10-2 last 12 on board, Huskies also 6-0 as dog TY. Spurrier
only 1-2 SU and vs. line in both at USC, and was one of the two SEC bowl
losers vs. number LY. Spurrier did cover all 3 on board vs. non-SEC TY,
however. Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on team trends.

OLE MISS vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Cotton, January 2)...Rematch of ’04
Cotton Bowl won by Ole Miss, 31-28, in Eli’s last game as a Rebel. Ole Miss
also won this game LY as a dog against Texas Tech. Houston Nutt, however,
just 2-4 as chalk away from Oxford since LY. Gundy 5-9-1 vs. line last 15 on
board and just 2-7 last 9 as dog (0-2 TY). Note SEC bowl pedigree since ‘06
(18-7 vs. line). Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on team and bowl trends.

ARKANSAS vs. EAST CAROLINA (Liberty, January 2)...Skip resteadied
the Pirate ship, at least vs. the number, covering 6 of last 9 TY after
prior pointspread slump. Skip still 22-10 vs. line as dog since taking over ECU
in ‘05. Petrino, however, covered last 4 and 7 of last 9 TY and is 12-5-1 last 18
vs. number since early LY. Tech edge-slight to ECU, based on extended
team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE VS. TEXAS TECH (Alamo, January 2)...Leach only 2-
6 as bowl chalk at Tech and has failed to cover his last 4 bowls. Leach also
just 7-9 vs. number last 16 as chalk. Dantonio, however, just 1-6 as dog since
LY. Tech edge-slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends