Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 2,2010

LOGICAL APPROACH

As pointed out in our Conference Summary a few issues back, MAC teams have not fared well in Bowl games of late. Between 2004 and 2008 MAC teams were just 4-15 S/U and 6-13 ATS. The first MAC team this season, Ohio U, was upset in the Little Caesars Bowl by, ironically enough, a former MAC member now in Conference USA, Marshall. Northern Illinois is one of 4 other MAC teams Bowling this season and they are the biggest underdog of the five. South Florida lost 5 of 7 games following a 5-0 start (which did include a pair of wins over FCS schools). USF did have two wins of note, defeating Florida State on the road and easily handling West Virginia at home. NIU's only win of note was a biggy, winning at Big 10 Purdue and outgaining the Boilermakers by over 100 yards. Both teams lost their final two games of the season. South Florida is in a fifth straight Bowl, splitting the prior four including a solid 41-14 win over Memphis in last season's St Petersburg Bowl. NIU is in a second straight Bowl and their fourth in six seasons, losing to Louisiana Tech in last season's Independence Bowl in what was essentially a road game. These teams are very even statistically almost across the board. NIU was slightly better at running the football and defending the run. USF was slightly better at passing the ball and defending the pass. The MAC history makes it tough to call for an outright upset but there is enough to recommend the Huskies to at least be competitive. South Florida has aspirations of a better Bowl at the start of the season but did not fare well in Big East play aside from the West Virginia upset, losing by 17 to Cincinnati and by 27 at Pitt. The call is for South Florida to win 30-27, making

NORTHERN ILLINOIS a 2 Star Selection
OVER a 3 Star Selection .

Connecticut is in a third straight Bowl and fourth in six seasons, facing their first SEC foe in Bowl competition. Carolina is in a second straight Bowl and their sixth over the past decade. It is their first against a Big East team. UConn defeated Buffalo 38-20 in last season's International Bowl while Carolina lost to Iowa 31-10 in the Outback Bowl on New Years Day. In many respects this represents a step up in class for UConn and a drop in class for Carolina. UConn had a very solid season that was marked by tragedy in mid season. The Huskies were a total of just 15 points from being unbeaten as all 5 losses were by 4 points or less. At the same time two of their wins were by just 2 and 3 points, including their biggest win of the season at Notre Dame. Playing in the tough SEC South Carolina faced some very tough competition but did defeat Ole Miss and also beating a pair of ACC teams including arch rival Clemson in the season finale. Carolina had the much better defense, allowing just 305 ypg (# 15) while UConn was below average (382 ypg, # 75). UConn did have a significant edge on offense and was very efficient, scoring 32 points per game (# 23) despite their modest overall ranking on offense (398ypg, # 47). Uconn's strength on offense is running the ball while Carolina's defensive strength is against the pass. Both teams are well coached with neither side considered to have an edge. The site somewhat favors South Carolina, playing in the heart of SEC country. The 'Cocks were favored just twice this season and both were by double digits against outmanned Florida Atlantic (they barely covered - 21) and against Vanderbilt (won 14-10 at home as 13 point favorites). UConn was a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs, winning twice outright. But they were getting at least 5 ½ points in all 5 of those games. Still, you have to like the way UConn was competitive in all 5 losses. They likely come the more motivated team, getting a chance to face an SEC team. South Carolina's motivation is questionable although they'd like to atone for last season's Bowl loss. Note that UConn played 7 straight OVERs to end the season. Taking points with such a feisty underdog is a more appealing option and UConn has the confidence they can pull the upset. Let's call for it as Connecticut wins 23-20, making

CONNECTICUT a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 1 Star Selection .

Ole Miss returns to the Cotton Bowl where they routed another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, 47-34 last January in a game not that close. It was Ole Miss' first Bowl trip in 5 seasons although Coach Nutt was in this same Bowl a season earlier as coach of Arkansas. Last season's success - which included handing BCS Champ Florida their only loss - set the stage for high expectations this season which went largely unfulfilled. Losing to arch rival Mississippi State 41-27 in the season finale capped what is considered a disappointing season since the Rebels also lost their other key SEC contest, 22-3 at home to Alabama. Oklahoma State battled through QB injuries and the mid season suspension of key WR Bryant to perform pretty much as expected. They did start the season with a solid win over and SEC team, Georgia, before being upset a week later by Houston. Their other two losses came versus Big 12 elite teams Texas and Oklahoma. Both teams enter with similar momentum, having won 3 in a row before season ending losses to in-state arch rivals. Ole Miss has the slightly better stats and carries the SEC pedigree but 2 of their wins came against FCS foes while OSU had just one such win. Both teams struggled when stepping up in class. Ole Miss has the better rushing offense but OSU allowed just 2.9 yards per rush. The OSU defense also has comparable secondary pass defense stats. OSU should be the more enthusiastic team. They are making a fourth straight Bowl trip and this is their best Bowl invite since losing in this same Cotton Bowl 6 seasons ago. That loss, ironically enough, was 31-28 to Ole Miss. But there's virtually no connection between the teams that played in that game and this season's teams. Both have different coaches. The teams appear fairly evenly matched which generally makes for a call on the Underdog. As such, the forecast is for Oklahoma State to pull the mild upset, winning 31-27 and making

OKLAHOMA STATE a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 3 Star Selection .

Arkansas is in a position much as SEC rival Ole Miss was last season. The Hogs rode the arm of emerging QB Mallett and the innovative offense of coach Petrino to a strong finish and Arkansas will be the fashionable "surprise" team to emerge from the SEC in 2010. A close and controversial mid season loss at Florida is an indication that the talent level has been upgraded under Petrino. East Carolina stumbled early but started to play as expected once conference play began. The Pirates held on to defeat Houston at home in the C-USA Title game to earn this Bowl bid. Arkansas had been to 2 straight Bowls, losing both, before missing out last season. ECU is in a fourth straight Bowl and looks to avenge a 25-19 loss to Kentucky in this very same Bowl last season. Arkansas brings their SEC pedigree and the better offense into this contest. The Hogs scored 10 points per game more than ECU while ECU has only slightly better defensive stats. Both teams were just average running the football and neither team defended the pass too well, ranking # 104 and # 110. But ECU was just average in passing offense (210 ypg, # 57) while Arkansas was among the nation's leaders (303 ypg, # 10). Arkansas has a spotty history in Bowls over the past decade and cannot be trusted as such a solid favorite despite their high powered offense. Yet they have several significant edges - including better overall talent - that they should win this contest. ECU is also a well coached team and will be well prepared to try and force Arkansas to run the football. Despite the heavy reliance on the pass Arkansas did average 4.4 yards per rush. The better option may be to look for a high scoring contest although the Total suggests these teams will trade points. Arkansas scored 30 or more points in each of its last 5 games, 3 of which were against South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU. ECU also lit up the scoreboard over the second half of the season. After averaging just 21 ppg in their first 6 games ECU averaged 33 ppg over their last 7 - and that includes scoring just 3 against defensive stalwart Virginia Tech. The call is for Arkansas to win but by just 38-33, making

EAST CAROLINA a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection .

The early buzz surrounding this game was the suspension of several key Michigan State players. The more current buzz has been the suspension of Texas Tech coach Leach for alleged "player abuse." The on field impact is more likely to adversely affect MSU but the late suspension of Leach could be a major distraction for Tech in the final few days leading up to the game. Fundamentally Tech is the better team and had the better season, although down from 2008. Under Leach the Texas Tech "system" again produced outstanding passing results and the Red Raiders passed for 381 ypg (# 2) while all but ignoring the run (81 ypg, # 115). The defense was above average, allowing just 349 ypg (# 47), 15 ypg less than MSU allowed. The Tech offense was turnover prone (# 107) but the MSU defense forced few turnovers (# 117). MSU's offense was better than perceived (407 ypg, # 41). The problem for the MSU defense is that they were much better at stopping the run (113 ypg, # 24) than at stopping the pass (252 ypg, # 103). Michigan State is in a third straight Bowl, losing each of the past two seasons. Tech is in tenth straight Bowl, losing to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl last season after winning each of the previous 2 seasons, each time by a FG. They've failed to cover in each of their last 4 Bowls and were favored in each. Prior to those 4 failures, Tech had won and covered 3 Bowls in a row, winning each game by at least 14 points. MSU's only win over a Bowl bound team was against Northwestern. Texas Tech has 2 wins over fellow Bowlers, defeating both Oklahoma and Nebraska. If Tech is not overly distracted by the coaching situation they match up well against MSU. The Spartans allowed 3 of their last 4 foes to pass for 324 or more yards. But the uncertainty of the distraction makes it hard to be overly enthusiastic about Texas Tech's chances but they clearly appear to be the winning side. Texas Tech wins 37-27, making

TEXAS TECH a 2 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection .

PLAYBOOK

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK:

PLAY ON any bowl dog off a win who owns a positive team net YPR versus a foe who owns a negative
team net YPR if the opponent won 8 or fewer games last season.
Play On: UCONN HUSKIES (1/2)
ATS W-L Record Since 1980:
19-2(89%)

South Florida over Northern Illinois by 6
Much like several previous ’09 bowl matchups, we fi nd two teams with
identical SU records but entirely different mindsets regarding their
postseason ‘reward.’ South Florida started the year on fi re, riding a 5-0
record to a No. 21 ranking in the USA Today coaches poll. But after the
loss of veteran QB Matt Grothe, replacement signal-caller B.J. Daniels
completed just 53% of his passes down the stretch and the Bulls ended
on a 2-5 slide, averaging only 18.9 PPG. So even though USF qualifi ed for
its 5th consecutive bowl appearance, HC Jim Leavitt and company can’t be
thrilled at being shipped off to the Great White North where few fans will
follow (yes, we know the game will take place inside the Rogers Centre but
Sunshine State fans will fi nd the going tough outdoors before the contest!).
Conversely, Northern Illinois reached its second straight bowl under
sophomore HC Jerry Kill – the fi rst time the Huskies have accomplished that
feat since joining the major-college ranks in 1969 – and you can bet the NIU
faithful who must regularly endure winters by Lake Michigan won’t mind
making the trek to Toronto. The Bulls come favored today strictly because
of the disparity between the two conferences. The Huskies’ combined
opponent win-loss percentage for 2009 checks in at only .400 while South
Florida tackled a .542 slate of foes. And even though both teams’ defenses
gave up virtually the same yards per game, NIU’s stop unit fi nished fi rst in
the MAC while the Bulls’ defense ranked No. 3 in the Big East. The Huskies’
season-ending 4-2 run also loses a bit of luster when we note that four of
NIU’s seven wins came against teams that combined to win a total of just
SIX games. Neither side has much to brag about from an ATS standpoint.
MAC bowlers are a woeful 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS off a loss and HC Kill owns
a less-than-impressive 1-10 SU log at NIU versus bowl teams. MAC bowl
dogs are also 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a loss and 0-8 SU and ATS in
bowl games since 2007 (all results were prior to Temple’s game with UCLA
in the Eaglebank Bowl). Yikes! But don’t head to the USF window just yet:
Big East bowlers are an unreliable 2-8 ATS versus an opponent off a loss.
The biggest positive in South Florida’s favor is coach Leavitt’s 17-5 ATS mark
against non-conference foes when favored by 13 or less points. The Huskies
will look to attack with the MAC’s leading ground game but USF matches
up well with future NFL defensive ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-
Paul. All things considered, we can’t fi nd enough of an edge to challenge
what we think is a very sharp number. Instead, we’ll dial up Showtime On-
Demand and watch the fi nal few episodes of this season’s ‘Dexter’ where
we know there will be a kill or two.

3* BEST BET
Connecticut over South Carolina by 7
Now that the South Carolina legislature has decided against
impeaching governor Mark Sanford for his ‘transgressions’ with an
Argentinian mistress (hey, compared to Tiger, this guy’s a lightweight!),
residents of the Palmetto State can refocus their attentions on
today’s Gamecocks-versus-Huskies battle in Birmingham. And
before you get too carried away with SC’s impressive 34-17 seasonending
smackdown of hated Clemson where the Cocks rushed for a
whopping 223 yards, note that the victory was preceded by a 3-game
losing streak where Steve Spurrier’s troops were outscored by an
average of 29-14. Not so for UConn: the Huskies fi nished with a 3-0
SU run, including “the biggest win in the history of the program”
where they beat Notre Dame 33-30 in double overtime. A closer
look also reveals that Connecticut’s fi ve losses came by a total of
just 15 POINTS while the Gamecocks fi nished dead last in the SEC
in rushing for the third straight season. Those stats aside, bettors
may get starry-eyed over the fact that SC QB Stephen Garcia fi nished
second in the conference in passing yards and UConn has struggled
to defend opposing aerial attacks, yielding 245 YPG. South Carolina’s
formidable ‘D’ also ranks 15th in the nation in total defense and 3rd
in the SEC, behind only Florida and Alabama. But the Huskies bring a
much better balanced offense to town than last year’s run-oriented
unit, featuring current NFL player Donald Brown. More importantly,
our database informs us that bowl dogs off a win with a positive
team net YPR are a sterling 16-2 ATS versus an opponent off a win
with a negative team net YPR. That fi ts perfectly with the fact that
.750 or less bowl favorites whose OYPR is less than 3.5 and whose
team net YPR is less than 0 are just 8-24 ATS. And last but not least,
UConn makes an appearance in this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on
page 2. Yes, the Gamecocks should enjoy a signifi cant edge in fan
presence but Randy Edsall’s team (6-0 ATS as dogs this season) will
dedicate this game to CB Jasper Howard who was tragically killed
just hours after UConn’s win over Louisville in mid-October. Factor
in Edsall’s stout 23-9-1 ATS record off an ATS loss (20-4 L24) and SC
fans may wish they’d gone ‘hiking the Appalachian Trail’ instead of
tuning in to an upset win by a bunch of northerners wearing blue.

Oklahoma St over Ole Miss by 3
‘Redemption’ is the theme for today’s game after both participants failed
miserably in their respective regular season fi nales against in-state foes. At
least Oklahoma State had some legitimate excuses: player suspensions and
a less-than-100% QB Zac Robinson (ankle and shoulder problems) played
a large part in the Cowboys’ ugly 27-0 loss to the Sooners at Norman. But
Ole Miss simply laid a really big one in their annual Egg Bowl battle with
Mississippi State. Facing essentially the same team they crushed 45-0 in last
year’s meeting when they outgained the Bulldogs 461-37, Houston Nutt’s
Rebels were totally outplayed in an embarrassing 41-27 beatdown as 7.5-
point road chalk. Nutt didn’t try to sugar coat the result, either. “Our players
are sick right now,” he said, “and I want them to be sick.” In order to heal
the patient by game time, Nutt will need to give QB Jevan Snead a stern
talking-to. Snead entered 2009 as one of the most hyped signal callers in
college football but fi nished the season completing just 54.3% of his passes
while posting a mediocre 20-to-17 TD-INT ratio (tossed three picks in the loss
to MSU). The Rebel defense will also have to regroup after getting gashed
for over 300 rushing yards by the Bulldogs – not to mention adjusting to
the absence of senior DE Greg Hardy who was lost for the season after wrist
surgery in November. Okie State’s stop unit, which improved a solid 76 YPG
over last year’s edition under new DC Bill Young, will focus on stopping
speedy, athletic RB Dexter McCluster, who emerged as both a serious running
and pass receiving threat in the second half of the season. According to our
database, the Pokes should be up to the task. Playing in its fi rst New Year’s
bowl under HC Mike Gundy, OSU is 8-1 ATS off a shutout loss, 3-1 SU and
4-0 ATS off a loss versus SEC opposition and have rolled up 38 PPG in its last
three bowl appearances. However, the favorite in Houston Nutt bowls is 2-6
ATS and bowlers off a loss in the same bowl they won last year – like Ole
Miss – are just 3-12 ATS. We think the combination of an 11-point loss to
Oregon in last year’s Holiday Bowl and the recent egging by Oklahoma will
have the Cowboys riled up and ready to rope someone… and it should be
the Rebels. Deliverance in Dallas for the Cowboys, bowl style.

Arkansas over East Carolina by 4
Ever wonder what former head coach and ESPN analyst Lou Holtz does
when he’s not on TV? Neither have we, but we’ll bet you a beer that he’s
spent more than a few hours on the phone with son Skip discussing how to
bring down the Razorbacks this afternoon. Thanks to the breakout play of
outstanding QB Ryan Mallet, Arkansas more than held its own in the brutal
SEC. Mallet set school records with 29 TD passes, 3,422 aerial yards, and
just seven picks in 367 pass attempts. Not surprisingly, the Hogs led their
conference in scoring with 37.3 PPG and fi nished No. 14 in the country in
total offense. But before you get bowled over by those gaudy stats, we
should remind you that East Carolina ain’t exactly chopped liver. The Pirates
are making their fourth consecutive bowl appearance for the fi rst time in
school history after winning back-to-back C-USA championships and the
squad’s senior class has won 33 games, just one shy of the program’s alltime
record set from 1975-78. ECU’s also got a pretty good QB of its own
in 6th-year senior Patrick Pinkney, who amassed 2,738 passing yards while
tossing six TDs and zero INTs in his last four games. RB Dominique Lindsay
is the fi rst Pirate to rush for 1,000 yards since the NFL’s Chris Johnson broke
the mark in 2007. But the best news for Holtz and his offense? They get
to line up against an unpredictable Arkansas defense that got torched for
almost 402 YPG (400-yard defensive favorites are an automatic fade for
us). More glad tidings for ECU backers: the Hogs are a miserable 3-13 SU
and 4-12 ATS as bowlers since 1984 (0-7 ATS against foes off BB wins), Arky
HC Bobby Petrino is 1-4 ATS in the postseason and Liberty Bowl favorites
have cashed just ONE ticket in the last fi ve tries. Holtz may not be setting
the pointspread world on fi re lately (11-14-1 last two seasons) but he’s
an immensely profi table 22-7-1 ATS when taking points, including 7-1-1
ATS against a foe off a SU loss. Yes, there’s no doubt we’ll be watching
Razorback QB Ryan Mallett on Sundays in the very near future but the
feeling here is ‘Father Lou’ will help ‘Son Skip’ fi nd a way for the Pirates to
shed the ‘Holy Ghost’ spell the SEC has cast over the C-USA. The Greenville
Buccaneers may not sail away with the upset win but they’ll have the ATS
treasure chest securely under lock and key. Amen.

Texas Tech over Michigan St by 6
If our sole method of determining pointspread winners came from reading
the sports headlines, we’d suggest that the Spartans just call this one off
before getting totally undressed on national television. Yes, Michigan State
featured the Big 10’s top passing offense in 2009 but key receivers B.J.
Cunningham and Mark Dell are suspended, part of an 8-player contingent
that will miss today’s game. The action by HC Mark Dantonio stems from a
street fi ght between members of the football team and a campus fraternity
following the Spartans’ end-of-the-year awards banquet. MSU’s defense also
went into the tank at season’s end, allowing over 1,500 yards in its closing
three games, including a 42-14 annihilation at home against Penn State.
Performances like that won’t get it done against an explosive Texas Tech
offense that averaged 37 PPG, especially now that just-suspended HC Mike
Leach has put an end to his 3-QB rotation and settled on Taylor Potts as his
main man. Potts went the distance in season-ending wins over Oklahoma
and Baylor and could have a big day against a Michigan State pass defense
that picked off a mere fi ve passes all season (#103 in the nation). Another
plus for the Red Raiders is the location, a virtual ‘home game’ setting for a
team making its 10th consecutive bowl appearance. But if you’re reaching
for your wallet right now, we’d like to say, “Not so fast, my friend!” The ugly
truth is BOTH teams own terrible SU and ATS numbers in this matchup. On
the Texas Tech side, the Red Raiders are a pathetic 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS versus
fellow bowlers this season and they’ve lost the money in their last four bowl
games. If that’s not enough, Big 12 bowl favorites of six or more points are
only 1-7 ATS versus an opponent off an ATS loss and they’ve struggled to a
6-15 ATS mark as bowlers versus a Big 10 representative. The Spartans are
equally inept: they’re 0-5 ATS as a bowler off a loss and Big 10 bowlers that
allowed 38 or more points in the fi nal game of the season are a disastrous
1-10 ATS. When the Vietnam War was raging in the late ‘60’s, a popular
poster asked the question, “What if they gave a war and nobody came?”
We can update that slogan for today’s Alamo Bowl by saying, “What if they
played a bowl game and nobody bet on it?” We’ll be on the sidelines for
this ‘Suspension Bowl’ – and so should you.

NELLYS GREENSHEET

South Florida (-7) Northern Illinois (49)
The Bulls continue to be an awful late season team and a perennial underachiever. A 5-0 start
was again wasted as a 2-5 finish lands South Florida in another mediocre bowl game despite
a lot of talent on the squad. Injuries did not help the cause but there were several poor
defensive games this season. The Bulls entered their bowl game on an equally bad run last
season but delivered a 41-14 blowout. That game came close to home however, while this will
be a long trip to the north in the dead of winter. This game will of course be indoors but it
could be tough to get the same type of motivation. Northern Illinois lost its final two games of
the season but was very close to winning its division in the MAC. This is an outstanding
rushing team that is ready to makes its second bowl appearance in as many years under
Coach Kill. The Huskies actually featured very impressive numbers on defense but both of
these teams played weak schedules both in and out of the conference. Last season Northern
Illinois received a very tough bowl draw and this should be a more favorable venue for fans
and players. The Huskies actually had a big yardage edge in last year’s loss against Louisiana
Tech but a couple of turnovers proved pivotal. The Big East has dominated the MAC in the
short history of this bowl game but Northern Illinois is the type of team that will be a tough
draw for a questionably motivated Bulls team, still playing with a very inexperienced QB. NIU
runs the ball effectively and will be tough to run against and this has the makings of a grind-itout
type of game that the Huskies will favor. While NIU QB Chandler Harnish did not post big
numbers he was efficient, completing 66 percent of his passes with only five interceptions.
Harnish should also be completely healthy unlike the final two losses for the Huskies. While
South Florida has talent in several key spots this looks like a classic bad spot for a bowl game
and South Florida and the psyche of this team has been fragile. NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 7

RATING 4: Northern Illinois (+7) over South Florida

South Carolina (-4½) Connecticut (51½)
The Gamecocks closed the year with a huge win over Clemson in a state rivalry game and it
will be a question of what is left in the tank for South Carolina. This team lost three of its final
five games but statistically was a much better team than the 7-5 record indicates. QB play was
a problem for the Gamecocks but South Carolina should be able to run the ball in this matchup.
Last year the team and the staff was a mess in their bowl appearance and it showed in a
31-10 loss to Iowa but things look much better for the Gamecocks this season, and having
played one of the toughest schedules in the nation could be apparent here. Connecticut has
endured an emotional season and the team rode that emotion into a strong finish, winning the
final three games and losing to undefeated Cincinnati by just 2-points just before that run.
Connecticut was actually out-gained in each of those contests and the defense has allowed at
least 24 points in each of the last eight games. Zach Frazer is back at QB for the Huskies and
though he has been winning, Cody Endres was much less of a turnover risk and was the QB
in many of the toughest games on the schedule. Connecticut’s running game is the strength of
this team but against a motivated South Carolina defense the yards will be very tough to come
by. Connecticut was amazingly 10-2 ATS this season which keeps this number quite low
given the talent edge in several key areas for South Carolina. Connecticut won last year in the
International Bowl but it was a favorable match-up against the surprise MAC champion and
the Huskies lost badly in the last bowl appearance against a major conference foe. South
Carolina’s defense should be the top unit faced all season by Connecticut and the slight
statistical edges for the Huskies on offense can be accounted for in the schedule.
Connecticut’s defense was a serious problem in several games this season and this is a team
that often benefited from turnovers and big plays on special teams so the luck may run out on
this squad. Lower numbers could also be expected in this game as the defensive intensity
should be high and ample preparation time should allow both teams to get stops against
typically conservative offenses. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 14

RATING 3: South Carolina (-4½) over Connecticut
RATING 2: ‘UNDER’ (51½) South Carolina/Connecticut

Mississippi (-3) Oklahoma State (50½)
These two teams had sights on breaking through to the BCS this season but neither could live
up to those expectations. It makes for an intriguing Cotton Bowl match-up however as this
historic bowl game moves to the bright lights of the new Cowboys Stadium. These teams met
in this bowl game in 2003 with Mississippi winning 31-28 and this could be a similarly
entertaining game between well matched opponents. Both teams have quarterbacks that
entered the season with great fanfare only to have very disappointing years as Jevan Snead
had 17 interceptions while completing just 54 percent of his passes and Zac Robinson battled
injuries and lost his best receiver causing a drastic drop in production. Both teams averaged
30 points per game with strong rushing attacks through fairly similarly rated schedules.
Oklahoma State beat Georiga of the SEC to open the season in what looked like a huge win
at the time but Oklahoma State is also just 2-8 ATS in the last ten games as underdogs. Both
teams closed the year with ugly performances while losing state rivalry games and the
motivational strength should be in similar spots for both squads. While Mississippi’s win over
Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl last season sparked the high expectations for this season,
they faced a somewhat resentful Texas Tech team that felt it belonged in the BCS. Oklahoma
State lost to Oregon in last year’s Holiday Bowl but Coach Gundy delivered two excellent wins
in his other bowl appearances at OSU. This looks like one of the most even bowl match-ups
and a slight edge should be with the Oklahoma State defense as the Cowboys were a tough
team to run against and could force Ole Miss into some mistakes in the passing game that
have been somewhat common for the Rebels. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 3

RATING 1: Oklahoma State (+3) over Mississippi

Arkansas (-7½) East Carolina (63½)
Conference USA has lost the last three Liberty Bowls to SEC teams but they have all been
close games. East Carolina lost by just six against Kentucky last season despite badly outgaining
the Wildcats and this should be a team with redemption on its mind. East Carolina
was the Conference USA champion for the second straight year by slowing down the highscoring
Houston offense and this will be another tough test. The early returns for Conference
USA have been poor in the bowl games but East Carolina was the best team in the
conference and held up capably in narrow losses to three BCS teams faced on the season,
though they narrowly missed covering in all three games. This is a senior heavy East Carolina
team and veteran experience should pay off in a return tip to this bowl game. Arkansas
should be well supported in this venue and Razorback QB Ryan Mallet had some of the best
passing numbers in the conference. The Arkansas defense allowed over 400 yards per game
and struggled against the run in several match-ups. Arkansas lost five games this season but
each loss came against a bowl eligible SEC team but the Razorbacks only beat two winning
teams all year and a turnover edge was a factor in both games. East Carolina scored 36
points per game in its final four contests against quality teams and this is a team that has a lot
of positive momentum. Arkansas had much of its prolific offensive statistics built up in home
games as well as this team averaged just 18 points per game on the road, with horrible
rushing numbers. The defensive numbers away from home were also horrendous so
Arkansas should be considered a suspect team in this situation as the team lacks experience
in these types of games under this coaching staff. East Carolina was actually a better
defensive team away from home and the Pirates should be an underdog with a good chance
to win if they take care of the ball as matching scores should not be a problem. The
Razorbacks had a nice year to get back to the postseason but this is a team with some
serious flaws that could be exposed in this match-up. ARKANSAS BY 2

RATING 3: East Carolina (+7½) over Arkansas

Texas Tech (-8) Michigan State (60½)
Every year there is a team that has a disappointing year and underachieves yet rises up for a
great bowl performance. Michigan State looks like that type of team. The statistics show that
this is an awful match-up for the Spartans as pass defense was a serious problem and Texas
Tech is still a top notch passing team despite a slight drop in the numbers this year. Michigan
State allowed about the same amount of yards as Texas Tech on the season however and the
rushing edge of MSU should be significant. Michigan State also has proved capable of
winning in shootouts as well and Kirk Cousins had very good numbers at QB when healthy.
The Texas Tech offense scored just 25 points per game on the road this season as this is not
the same offensive team of year’s past. Injuries played a role in the decline and the offense is
much easier to handle with significant time to prepare for. Tech has averaged nearly 40 points
per game over the last four seasons but has averaged less than 30 points per game the last
four bowl games, all ATS losses. While most consider the Big XII superior to the Big Ten it
was a very down year for the conference overall and Michigan State’s schedule rates as a
stronger slate. The loss in the finale to Penn State was misleading as it was a 7-7 game at
halftime and it should be a motivating factor for the Spartans. Texas Tech’s defense was
much better than its usual reputation this season with only an awful game against Texas A&M
as a major blemish. The Spartans have some of the same strengths that the Aggies have and
this could be a favorable match-up if Michigan State can keep a run-pass balance and limit big
plays. There is a lot of unrest among fans in East Lansing after a big drop off from last season
but the MSU coaching staff should be ready to deliver in this game. Playing in Texas is a clear
advantage for the Red Raiders but the Big Ten has done extremely well in this bowl game,
going 6-2 ATS the last eight years and the underdog is 5-2 the last seven years. Backing
Michigan State here has some risk but this could be a game where the team comes together
to play its best game despite a tough match-up. MICHIGAN STATE BY 3

RATING 4: Michigan State (+8) over Texas Tech
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (60½) Michigan State/Texas Tech

POINTWISE

For the 5th time in their 5 years of BCS membership, the Bulls of South Florida
are going bowling. And puts them in elite company, as only 6 other schools have
reached a holiday spot in each year as a member of that conference. In the preseason,
this squad was given a few mentions as a possible Top 25 candidate,
altho they lost 11 starters from LY's 8-5 squad, which, incidentally followed a
pair of 9-4 campaigns. The main reason for any high hopes, of course, was the
return of their splendid leader, QB Grothe, who was 17-of-24 for 236 yds & 3
TDs (no INTs), while also running for 83 yds, in LY's 41-14 rout of Memphis, in
the St Petersburg Bowl (15½ pt cover). However, he was lost for the season, in
game #3 (knee), & altho the Bulls did win their first 5 games, for the 3rd straight
season, & Daniels has been a very decent replacement: 1,766 PYs, 798 RYs,
accounting for 21 TDs, they again struggled down the stretch, with 4 of their 5
losses coming by 17, 27, 31, & 21 pts. However, an upset of WestVirginia can't
go unmentioned. Their foes here, the Huskies of Northern Illinois, are no bowl
strangers, themselves, with this marking their 4th such campaign in the last 6
years. They paid their dues, in a 37-7 pasting from TCU, in the '06 Poinsettia,
but gave LaTech all it could handle in LY's Independence. A kickoff return TD
was the difference in that 17-10 loss. They are led by RB Spann (945 yds, 5.9
ypr), who posted 19 TDs, & QB Harnish (66%, 1,540 yds, 11 TDs). They have
the #1 rushing "O" in the MAC, as well as the league's best total "D", altho they
have had their troubles vs the spread offense, which the Bulls run. But Huskies
are a 26-13 ATS play as dogs since '01, & they're more than happy to be here.

PROPHECY: South Florida 27 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 24 RATING: 5

This contest marks the 16th time that Steve Spurrier has taken a squad to a
bowl game. He was 0-1 at Duke, 6-5 at Florida, & 1-2 with the Gamecocks of
South Carolina. So just a 7-8 post-season mark for the Ol' Ball Coach, which
certainly has to be a bit of a surprise to most fans, as he is already a legend.
With SC, he becomes the first coach in school history to take his team to 4
bowl games. The 'Cocks have actually been bowl-eligible (.500 or better) the
last 6 years, which marks the school's best such run since 1928-1934. A year
ago, SC (+4) was throttled by Iowa, 31-10, in the Outback, with QB Garcia
throwing 3 INTs. This year, SC pretty much lives via its 15th ranked "D", as its
running game was held to 65 yds or less in 5 games, while Garcia (56.6%,
2,733 yds, 17 TDs) ranked 11th in the SEC in passing efficiency. The 'Cocks
were held to 12.6 ppg & 72.4 RYpg in a 5-gm run, before shocking Clemson,
34-17 in its last game, with an unheard of 223-48 RY edge. Oh, only 1 team
(Kentucky) has reached 200 RYs vs SC. For the Huskies of Connecticut, this
marks their 3rd straight bowl campaign, & 4th in the last 6 years. They were
pummeled by WkForest in the '07 Meineke (23-9 FD deficit), but took Buffalo,
38-20, in LY's International, despite losing 5 fumbles (358-24 RY edge). UConn
has lost its five games by a total of 15 pts, all to bowl teams, whose combined
record is 47-14. Thus, another fine season for Edsall's minions, despite the
loss of QB Endres. RBs Todman & Dixon have combined for 2,119 RYs & 27
TDs, while QB Frazer has thrown for 1,113 yds the past 5 games. From the
start, we knew we would be going with the dog in this encounter. Husky call.

PROPHECY: CONNECTICUT 24 - South Carolina 22 RATING: 3

That's right. For the first time in its 74 years, this game is not being played in
Dallas, but rather Arlington (technicality), as the historic Cotton Bowl has been
replaced by Cowboys Stadium. And the Rebels of Mississippi have the honor
of not only ushering out the old, but also ushering in the new, as this marks an
unusual 2nd straight year for OleMiss, in this classic. Last year, as 4-pt dogs,
they dismantled TexasTech, to the tune of 47-34, while piling up 522 yds. That
one marked the 7th OleMiss win, in its last 8 bowl games, altho it also marked
its first bowl game since the '03 Cotton, where it prevailed, 31-28, as a 2½ pt
chalk. A year ago, this squad finished 14th in the nation, & with the return of
15 starters, including QB Snead & do-everything McCluster, they rose to the
4th spot in the land after a 2-0 start. But 4 losses, including a shocking 41-27
upset by 5-7 MissSt, in their finale, has dropped them out of the Top 25. Snead
blows hot-&-cold. Just 54.3%, with his 20 TD passes offset by 17 INTs (tied
for worst in the nation). McCluster is the key, as he has a chance to become
the first player in SEC history have 1,000 RYs & 500 receiving yds in the same
year. The Cowboys of Oklahoma St were the victims in that '03 Cotton Bowl,
their only other meeting with the Rebs. OkieSt was #5 in polls, before an early
season loss to Houston, but has been steady, despite the loss of its best WR,
Byrant (suspension). QB Robinson (62%, 1,966 yds, 15/8) is among the nation's
elites, while Toston (1,177 RYs) leads the Big12's top-ranked rushing "O".
And the 'Pokes rank 6th in the nation against the run. We'll take Robinson
over Snead, with the 'Boys somewhat controlling McCluster. Call mild upset.

PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA STATE 31 - Mississippi 27 RATING: 3

For the 4th time, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will be participating in the Liberty
Bowl. And for the 4th time, the Pirates of East Carolina will be participating in
the Liberty Bowl. The Hogs, of course, have a long tradition of post-season
play, with this marking their 37th bowl appearance, their ninth in the past dozen
years, & their 24th January bowl placement. But recently, they've hardly been
an automatic holiday entrant, missing in '04, '05, & '08 (5-6, 4-7, 4-7). And,
whereas the Arkies have been known for their overland exploits, finishing 4th
in rushing "O" in both '06 & '07, behind the brilliance of Darren McFadden, they
dropped to an unimaginable 97th in '08 (Patrino's first year), & rank just 77th in
that column this season. But whereas the Hogs ranked 91st in scoring LY (22
ppg), they come in at #8 this season. The reason? An overhead game, which
ranks 10th in the nation. Soph QB Mallett is the trigger (3,425 yds, 29 TDs, &
just 7 picks). Check 1,295 PYs & 13 TDs in a late-season 4-game run. He has
set or matched 16 different school records. He leads the SEC in PYs, & ranks
6th in the nation in efficiency, with WRs Childs & Wright at 19.2 & 16.0 yds per
catch. Can the Pirates control that aerial game? Well, they picked off Houston's
Keenum 3 times, in the C-USA title game, & remember he entered that game
with a 38/6 mark. ECU has a 1,000-yd runner in Lindsay, but it has to be QB
Pinkney, who ranks just 80th in the nation in passing (59.5%, 14/10), along
with the takeaway, if it is to stay with this juggernaut, which averaged 45 ppg in
its final 5 games. The Pirates are a solid +77 pts ATS in their final 7 games, so
are not to be dismissed. However, no way they stay in a high scoring shootout.

PROPHECY: ARKANSAS 45 - East Carolina 30 RATING: 4

Another year, another near unstoppable overhead game, another bowl game.
That's been the modus operandi for the Raiders of Texas Tech, ever since the
arrival of Mike Leach, ten years ago. The mantle has been passed down from
Kingsbury, to Symons, to Crumbie, to Hodges, to Graham, & now to Potts (or
Sheffield). From '02 thru '09, Tech has ranked #1, #1, #1, #1, #3, #1, #1 & #2
in passing offense. Absolutely phenomenal. And as a result, they've finished
as the 6th, 4th, 8th, 4th, 13th, 7th, 3rd, & 8th ranked team in scoring offense.
However, whereas they breezed to 55-15, 38-14, & 45-31 wins in their '02-'04
bowl appearances (35, 11½, & 25 pt covers), they have been flops in their last
4 such shots, with a 2-2 SU mark, losing all 4 ATS. And their 2 wins featured
the largest comeback in bowl history (44-41 OT win in the '06 Insight), & overcoming
a 28-14 deficit in the final 3:31 of the '07 Gator. This year, they were
king of the unexpected outcome: wins of 31-10 at Nebraska (31½ pt cover) &
41-13 vs Oklahoma (34½ pt cover); but a 52-30 loss to TexasA&M (44 pt ATS
loss). Potts & Sheffield have thrown for 4,200 yds & 33 TDs, but note a 161-48
RY edge over Oklahoma. For the Spartans of Michigan State, this has been a
bittersweet season. Just a 6-6 mark, but no losses by more than a TD, before
being destroyed, 42-14 in their finale vs PennSt. QB Cousins is a good one
(61.5%, 2,460 yds, 18/7), but for the 2nd straight year, they rank just 77th in
rushing. They, of course, enter under a dark cloud, of sorts, as Dantonio has
suspended 11 players, including its 2 best WRs. Can't see troubled Spartans,
& their 103rd-ranked passing "D" staying with the Raiders. But we tread lightly.

PROPHECY: TEXAS TECH 38 - Michigan State 24 RATING: 6

NC POWERPLAYS

Nothern Illinois has shown they can play with BCS teams as they covered at Wisconsin & beat
Purdue. PP is calling for a 3 point loss & with the spread around a TD we’ll make it a 4 star.
4★ NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+) 21 USF 24

Quite a contrast as although South Carolina is forecasted to outgain U Conn by a 431-284 yd
margin they’re only projected to win by 5 pts. The Huskies do have the turnover & ST edges.
NO PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA 26 CONNECTICUT 21

At fi rst glance we expected a forecast with many more yards. In this matchup PP is calling for
Ole Miss to fi nish with a 335-315 yd edge. With the Rebels a 3 pt favorite we’ll pass.
NO PLAY: MISSISSIPPI 24 OKLAHOMA STATE 22

The forecast is for Arkansas to win this Liberty bowl but we disagree by the margin. EC thrives
on the role of being an underdog and has gone 22-7 ATS since Skip Holtz took over.
NO PLAY: ARKANSAS 37 EAST CAROLINA 22

Not only is TT the better offensive team as per our checklist but they’re also a better defensive team.
PP is calling for the Raiders to fi nish with a 466-359 yd edge before an excited pro-TT crowd.
4★ TEXAS TECH 36 MICHIGAN STATE 24

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

Third meeting. The series is tied 1-1 and Bulls beat NI 37-6 (‘02) in last meeting. USF came in with high hopes, with a 3Y st’r at QB, one of the top DL in NCAA and practically 3 FCS opp’s on their sked. The tide quickly turned as QB Grothe was inj’d while leading Charleston So 28-0. USF beat Big Bro #18 Fla St but again went into a 2H slump (5-0 start 3rd str yr) losing 4 of L/6 after their Thurs night home loss to #8 Cincy. Leavitt has now taken a young USF program to its 5th str bowl and is 2-2 SU/ATS. USF dominated Mem in the St Petersburg Bowl LY 41-14 (-11’). NI will be bowling in B2B yrs for the 1st time and 4th in the L/6Y. NI had a close loss at Wisc, won at Purdue and had a 4 gm win streak, but did lose their L/2. Kill led the Huskies to the Independence Bowl LY in his 1st yr, a 17-10 (+1’) loss to La Tech. NI is 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS in bowls. The Bulls have played 7 bowl tms (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) being outscored 27-16 and outgained 372-302. NI has played just 4 bowl foes going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, being outgained 418-335 and outscored 36-28. USF is 14-13 as fav the L/3Y and has 8 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen. NI is 10-5 ATS as a dog the L/3Y and has an even younger squad with 4 Sr among 13 upperclassman. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS on turf since ‘06. USF has traveled well but a trip to Canada is a stretch for Floridians, so NI gets the crowd edge.

NI comes in with our #90 off avg 31 ppg and 354 ypg. They are #1 in the MAC (#17 NCAA) in rushing (202) and RZ efficiency (95.6%) scoring 43 of 45 times with 1 kneel down vs EM. QB Harnish is also the #4 rusher. He started the 1st 6 before being inj and missed 3 gms but did start the L/2. QB Grady is a running QB (#3 rusher) and started 4 gms (4 wins) this ssn. NI has 2 All-MAC RB’s in Spann (1st Tm), who led the MAC in rush TD’s (19) and Brown (3rd Tm), who started 9. NI only has 1 WR with over 500 yds, but the unit excels at downfield blocking. The OL has stayed healthy with just 2 missed sts due to inj and has just 2 Sr’s on the 2 deep (C Eddie Adamski, LG Jason Onyebuaga, both 1st Tm MAC). They paved the way for 4.9 ypc, while all’g only 14 sks (5.6%) the least in the MAC. NI has our #72 D all’g 21 ppg and 324 ypg. The DL has just 1 Sr in the 2-deep and allowed 119 rush ypg (3.7) and accounted for 24.5 of NI’s 29 sks (84%). The DL is led by two 2nd Tm MAC players in Sr DE Bice and NG Coffman who led with 7.5 sks (#3 MAC). The LB unit has 3 of the team’s top 5 tklrs led by Sr WLB Cory Hanson (#2). The secondary has just 1 Sr in the 2-deep and allowed 205 ypg pass with a poor 16-8 ratio. NI comes in with our #52 spec tms with 1 P blk’d and 2 ret TD’s but also allowed 2 ret TD. K Salerno (2nd Tm MAC) hit 18-23 FG incl 4-7 from 40+ (L/50).

USF has our #84 offense avg 363 ypg and 26 ppg. QB Grothe was working with his 3rd OC (Canales), who hoped to establish the run to take some pressure off of him. RB Ford was due for a breakout year (14 TD’s ‘07) but was susp 1st 2 gms and #2 RB Taylor inj’d his knee, leaving often inj’d Plancher as the #1. Grothe went down in the 3rd gm, giving way to BJ Daniels (PS#76), who is actually a better runner, passer and has just as amazing escapability. He made his 1st start vs his hometown Fla St and accounted for 341 of 368 ttl offense in the upset. Daniels accounts for 59% of the Bulls’ offense. LY’s #1 WR Hester missed 1st 3 w/ankle inj and hasn’t been a factor. The Bulls WR corps has size and all are deep threats as Mitchell and Love (18.8) became the go-to-guys. The OL lacks quality depth and avg 6’4” 300 paving the way for 169 yds (4.3) and they all’d 33 sks. USF DC Tresey leads our #33 D, all’g 329 ypg and 21 ppg. The DL is all’g 138 rush ypg (4.0) with 21 of the team’s 25 sks. DL avg 6’4” 271 and features 2 future NFL DC’s in Selvie, whose constant double tm attention allowed JUCO Pierre-Paul (14.5 tfl) to have a standout ssn. The LB unit is led by tm Capt and leading tklr Wilson, who missed the ssn finale with an ankle inj. The secondary is all’g 191 ypg (56%) with a 14-12 ratio led by #2 tklr FS Allen and cover corner Murphy. USF went from #56 in ST’s LY to ranking at #102. They lost LY’s returning K Bonani in a freak accident just before ssn. Alvarado took over double duties, a lesson Leavitt should have learned from the year before. He missed 3 of first 4 and was replaced by Schwartz. The Bulls KO coverage allows 20.3 and PR cover allows 21.0, last in NCAA.

We’re cognizant that the BE is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in this bowl vs MAC foes but we have a live dog here. USF is the ONLY BCS team to start each of the L/3Y at 5-0 but again had a late ssn collapse. Last year was different as they refocused and won their bowl gm which was basically at home, but this year motivation will be tougher vs a MAC foe. Northern’s program continues to grow and LY’s bowl loss not only keeps them focused, it gives them valuable experience on what it takes to get the program to the next level. USF clearly has the talent, but we have to question their heart.

FORECAST: N ILLINOIS (+) USF by 3 RATING: 2★ N ILLINOIS

will face UC for the 1st time in the 4th annual PapaJohns.com Bowl. Spurrier is familiar with Legion Field as his Florida tm plyd here in ‘92-’93 in the SEC Championship. Spurrier is 1-2 SU/ATS with SC and 7-8 SU/ATS all-time in bowls incl LY’s disastrous 31-10 loss to Iowa in the Outback. SC is 4-10 all-time in bowls but has won 4 of the L/6. SC ended another late ssn slump (3 str losses) with an impressive win over ACC runner-up Clem. TY SC has faced 8 bowl tms (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) being outscored 25-21 but outgaining those foes by an avg of 342-327. Edsall did a remarkable coaching job TY keeping UC together after the tragic loss of tm leader CB Jasper Howard. UC was an outstanding 9-2-1 ATS TY as their 5 losses were by a comb 15 pts, and they won their L/3 to become elig. They actually led 4 of the L/5 in the 4Q losing on a safety vs NC and on an 81 yd TD vs RU. Edsall is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl LY’s 38-20 win over Buffalo in the International Bowl. UC has played 8 bowl caliber tms being outgained 404-381 but only outscored by 26.5-26.1 ppg. UC has 6 Sr starters among 12 upperclassmen, while SC has just 5 Sr starters with 13 upperclassmen in starting roles. UC has the reputation of travelling well while SC fans are disappointed to be the last SEC tm chosen as they were hoping to be in the Chick-fil-A TY. SC sold just 7,284 of its 11,000 allotment for the Outback Bowl LY. UC is 5-14 as a road dog, but 5-0 TY. SC came into ‘09 12-5 as fav but was just 1-3 TY.

Conn is our #48 off avg 398 ypg and 32.1 ppg. UC was looking to compensate for the loss of RB Brown (#1 DC) and brought in OC Moorhead to install a no-huddle hurry up off. Conn got off to a rocky start as they avg just 149 pass ypg in 3 of 1st 4 (289 vs RI) and opened 3-2 but lost ND trans QB Frazer vs NC (5 gms). Endres threw for 257 ypg (66%) with a 6-4 ratio and was 3-2 as a st’r. Conn stuck to the run gm with the tandem of soph Todman and Dixon who scored 63% of UC TD’s. A big concern has been at WR for the past few yrs but Easley emerged as a big play threat with 5 gms over 100 yds, avg 19.4 ypc and rFr TE Griffin became a reliable option. The OL avg 6’4” 317 paving the way for 173 ypg (4.3) all’g 20 sks. Conn has our #74 D all’g 382 ypg and 25 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 264 all’g 138 rush ypg (3.8) and has 22 of the tm’s 30 sks. DE Witten is 5th in NCAA with 11.5. The LB unit is led by Wilson who is #3 in NCAA with 11.8 tkl per gm. Lutrus has a lingering stinger and they lost Lloyd (#2 tklr) after tearing ACL/MCL vs Syr. The secondary has been the weakness of the D with a Fr at SS and the loss of Howard. They are all’g 245 ypg (67%) with a 17-11 ratio. After finishing #107 LY, UC has our #31 ST’s ranking TY. Cullen raised his punt avg from 39.8 to 43.1 with 22 I/20. UC had 3 diff players with TD KR’s but lost Frey (inj) who was avg 29.5. The cover tms all’d 6.4 on PR but 23.1 on KR incl 2 TD’s.

Despite suffering another late-ssn swoon in the “Orange Crush” portion of their sked, SC has reasons for optimism TY and this is probably the perfect bowl for this young tm because it is winnable and the confidence gained with their dominating win over Clem should spill over into this gm. When the annual questions about Spurrier’s retirement came up TY, he said he wanted to stay around long enough to see if he could develop TY’s frosh class into an SEC Title squad in the next 3 yrs. QB Garcia is greatly improved over LY and even won grudging respect from HC Spurrier TY finishing #2 in the SEC in pass ypg. One key area of improvement from LY is the running gm which avg’d a league-low 94 rush ypg (2.9) but improved to 125 rush ypg (3.7) though still last in the SEC. True Fr WR Jeffery was as good as advertised with three 100+ yd rec gms teaming with reliable Sr Brown and future NFL TE Saunders. The OL was shuffled almost weekly again TY under new OL coach Wolford and while the run gm improved, they still all’d 34 sks (8.4%). The OL starters avg 6’5” 296 with 2 Sr starters. Overall SC ranks #55 on off and #15 on D. AA LB Norwood is extremely disruptive leading the tm in tfl and also blocking 3 kicks. The DL avg 6’4” 279 with 1 Sr starter and has all’d 137 rush ypg (3.8). The young secondary (3 Fr, 3 soph in 2 deep) is #28 in our pass D rankings all’g 168 ypg (56%) with a 10-6 ratio. SC’s #108 spec tms have allowed 3 KR TD’s TY, but K/P Lanning has been reliable.
LY heading into the bowl, SC was in turmoil losing some asst coaches and players who were more concerned about their NFL prospects than the bowl. TY SC is in a much better place with young talent and a solid coaching staff and a win here would propel SC into a solid outlook for 2010. While the records are the same, SC faced vs SEC competition. A quick check of each team’s 5 poorest performances shows that UC all’d 520 ypg while SC all’d over 360 yds just one time this entire ssn. SEC size, speed and talent will be on display in an old school Spurrier domination.

FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA by 14 RATING: 4* S. CAR

This is a rematch of the ‘03 Cotton Bowl in which Eli Manning led the Rebs to a 31-28 win in his final collegiate gm. UM HC Nutt will be facing his alma mater for the 1st time in his HC career. Nutt was OSU’s WR cch when Cowboys HC Gundy was the starting QB. Nutt is 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS in bowls but 3-0 SU/ATS in the Cotton. Gundy has led OSU to bowls in 4 of his 5Y (2-1 SU/ATS) and this is a schl rec’d 4th straight bowl. Ole Miss earned their 2nd str trip here, the 1st time the schl has been to B2B Jan bowls since ‘70-’71. LY the Rebels (+4) stunned #8 TT 47-34 with QB Snead throwing for 292 with a 3-1 ratio and McCluster having 180 ttl yds. UM is 7-2 SU all-time vs B12 tms in bowls, incl winning the L/6. OSU has 16 Sr starters (17 upperclassmen) while UM has 12 Sr’s and 19 upperclassmen. Although UM fans were hoping for a trip to Florida’s Capital One Bowl, a disappointing finale loss to rival Miss St sent them back to the Cotton, but a visit to the new Cowboys Stadium should bring fans. OSU was thinking BCS until a 27-0 loss to rival Okla in the finale, so their fans are also disappointed.

UM started ‘09 ranked #8 in the AP poll and climbed as high as #4 but then reality smacked them in the face in a Thurs night loss at SC in which QB Snead struggled. Snead came into ‘09 touted as 1 of the NCAA’s top QB’s but avg’d just 174 pass ypg (45%) with a 5-9 ratio in the tm’s 4 losses. Nutt was reluctant to use McCluster as the feature RB because at 5’9” 170 he felt he wasn’t durable enough, so early in the yr he was sorely underutilized. With the off struggling McCluster became a RB/WR and Nutt also used him as the Wild Rebel QB and he avg 164 rush ypg and 225 ttl ypg in the L/5 SEC gms incl a schl rec’d 282 rush yds and 4 TD vs Tenn. With McCluster taking some pressure off Snead the pass gm improved and WR Hodge emerged with three 100+ yd gms in the L/5. The OL avg 6’5” 316 with 3 Sr starters, but they found it tough to replace AA OT Oher. In the L/4 True Fr Bobbie Massie (PS#37) took over the starting job at RT freeing Sr John Jerry to move to his more natural RG spot and that resulted in McCluster’s record setting day. Overall, UM has our #19 off and #18 D. UM’s D held up pretty well until the finale when they were unable to stop MSU’s mobile QB Relf and RB Dixon all’g 317 rush yds (5.4). If you take out that gm UM only all’d 124 rush ypg (3.6). UM lost top sackman Hardy (5 sk) for the yr after 8 gms which didn’t help matters. The LB corps and secondary are solid but there isn’t much depth. UM ranks #12 in pass eff D all’g 179 ypg (51%) with an 11-9 ratio. UM is #57 in our ST’s rankings w/True Fr Campbell winning the P job midssn with a solid 43.6 avg (36.1 net). K Shene is reliable and True Fr Grandy is dangerous with 2 KR TD.

Coming into ‘09 OSU was expected to contend for the B12 South Title much like TT did in ‘08 but after a huge win to open the ssn vs #13 UGA, the Pokes had a letdown in a home loss to Houston. After 3 gms AA WR Bryant was susp’d for the rest of the yr and ‘08’s B12 leading rusher Hunter played in just 7 due to inj. Despite all the distractions and injuries OSU still had BCS aspirations into the finale. This will be Gundy’s 1st NYD bowl as a player or HC, in what was the best coaching job of his career. OSU’s 3 losses were to #2 UT, rival OU and to a 10-3 Houston team. QB Robinson surpassed his HC to become OSU’s leading passer TY even though his numbers were down over 1,000 pass yds and 250 rush yds from ‘08, but his leadership skills were second-to-none. 1st Tm B12 RB Toston took over with four 100+ gms accounting for 51% of the rush off. No real #1 WR emerged but Anyiam filled in nicely. The OL avg 6’4” 303 (4 Sr) paving the way for 192 ypg (4.4) all’g just 10 sks (3.3%) led by 1st Tm AA/B12 OL OY LT Russell Okung. RT Brady Bond missed the L/4 (inj) but could return. 1st yr DC Young worked his magic again knocking off 76 ypg all’d from LY. The DL avg 6’3” 275 (3 Sr) all’g just 88 ypg (2.9) while accounting for 58% (14.5) of the tm’s 25 sks. LB Lemon was lost for the yr (ACL) but his replacement Sr Booker (PS#50) led the tm in tkls and Lavine and Sexton round out one of the NCAA’s best LB corps. OSU is #9 in our pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (57%) with a 16-14 ratio. CB Cox (PS#12) in the secondary’s anchor earning 1st Tm B12. He also earned 2nd Tm KR/PR for the #62 ST unit.
While this is not where both teams expected to finish, it’s not a bad consolation prize here in new Cowboys Stadium. Both come into this game with disappointing finishes to the season as Ole Miss fell at Miss St and OSU was mauled by the Sooners. You can see from the checklist that these two are pretty evenly matched so we’ll pass on a play here and continue to follow the developments.

FORECAST: OLE MISS vs OKLAHOMA ST RATING: No Play

First meeting. This is Arkansas’ first bowl under Petrino, who was 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowls at Louisville. This is Ark’s 1st trip here since ‘87 and the Hogs are 0-3 SU in Liberty Bowl appearances. In fact, UA is just 2-11 SU in bowls since ‘86 (3-8 ATS). Hog fans should be excited for their return to a bowl after sitting home LY and this is within driving distance of Fayetteville (319 miles). Ark has sold 15,000+ tickets already. This is CUSA Champion East Carolina’s 4th straight bowl under Holtz (1-2 SU/ATS) and 2nd straight Liberty Bowl. They lost to Kentucky 25-19 (-3) here LY. They are 1-2 SU/ATS all-time in the Liberty Bowl. The Pirates played 8 bowl tms TY and went 4-4 (2-5-1 ATS) as they were outscored 24-21 and outgained 406-333. The Hogs faced 9 bowl tms and went 4-5 SU, but were 6-3 ATS, outscoring bowl foes 32-28 but were outgained 433-411. Ark has 5 Sr’s among their 12 upperclassmen starters, while EC has 12 Sr’s among their 20 upperclass starters. EC went 3-3 ATS on the road, incl 1-2 as a dog. Ark went 3-2 ATS away from home and was a fav just once when they beat TX A&M 47-19 (-1’) in a neutral site gm (Dallas).

It’s safe to say that Ark had the biggest upgrade at the QB position in the SEC in ‘09 with QB Ryan Mallett improving as the season went on. Ark is #5 in our offensive rankings and Mallett leads the SEC in pass ypg (285), pass efficiency and his 29-7 ratio is also one of the best in the league. Top RB Smith (1,072 rush in ‘08) struggled through an inj-plagued ssn and was lost for the yr after just 8 gms. USC transfer Green, Johnson, and true frosh Wingo all had their moments, but no one grabbed the starting job. The Soph WR’s, however, really stepped up with Childs becoming the top guy. WR Adams missed 3 gms midseason after suffering a mild stroke and if not for that, he could have led the team (#3 rec yds) as he is the most reliable WR. TE DJ Williams’ numbers were down from LY (61, 11.9 in ‘08) with Mallett able to hit the big downfield passes. The OL avg 6’4” 314 lbs with 1 Sr starter and finally started to gel in the team’s late ssn surge when they won 4 in a row before falling to LSU in the finale. The OL only allowed 26 sks (6.5%), which is 20 less than LY. The #47 defense struggled at times, but allowed 5.4 ppg less than LY but 26.6 ypg more than ‘08. Ark is #72 in our ST’s rankings but KR Johnson (26.0, 1 TD) was a bright spot.

The Pirates come in with our #72 ranked offense avg 28 ppg and 368 ypg. The veteran squad got off to a surprisingly slow start, but rebounded and avg’d 34 ppg and 418 ypg the L/7. 6th year Sr QB Pinkney provides excellent leadership in the huddle and has really picked up his game as he hasn’t thrown an int in his L/4 outings. RB Lindsay has been banged up all season, but brings the effort every week. WR Harris is a triple-threat athlete as he has the ability to catch, run and pass (QB in HS). The offensive staff looks for creative ways to get the ball in his hands, incl quick screens and direct snaps (wildcat). The upperclass-laden OL (2 Sr, 3 Jr) avg 6’5” 310 and propels a rush attack that is avg 150 ypg (4.1), while all’g just 9 sks (2.1%) in 13 gms (#3 NCAA). EC’s def has 8 Sr starters and enters all’g 22 ppg and 386 ypg. The DL avg 6’4” 296 and is led by LY’s CUSA DPOY DE Wilson. Wilson has seen double-teams all ssn, which has made it easier for others to get to the QB. The DL has accounted for 20.5 of the team’s 28 sks. LB Johnson is the heart and soul of the D and has a nose for the football as he has 2 int’s, 1 FF and 1 FR. The Pirates are #70 in our pass D rankings all’g 262 ypg (62%) with a 23-17 ratio. The secondary is led by FS Eskridge, a 4 yr starter. EC’s ST’s are #22 and feature a strong P and an explosive KR. EC is #18 in NCAA in net P (38.0) behind the strong right leg of P Dodge, who has 21 P’s of 50+ yds. KR Harris (CUSA ST POY) is 1 of just 6 players in the NCAA with at least 3 KR TD’s and all 3 of his TD’s have come in the L/7 gms.

East Carolina made their mark by not only covering as a dog against BCS foes but pulling outright upsets. The goal of the Pirates program is to win the CUSA Championship and by doing so they get a Liberty Bowl bid. Ark’s offense finished with a potent 5 gm display avg 45 ppg, but EC was also productive as they topped 37 pts in 5 of their L/7 games. Arkansas is obviously the more talented team, but we think the Pirates can keep it close.

FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA (+) Ark by 4 RATING: 2* E CAROLINA

First meeting between the tms which was made when the Alamo Bowl chose a short-handed MSU squad (12 susp plyrs) over a Minny squad they lost to because the committee desired a higher scoring gm in the LY of their contract with the Big Ten. This is MSU’s 2nd trip to the Alamo where they lost 17-3 (+3) to Neb in ‘03 under John L Smith. Under Dantonio MSU is 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS in bowls with their last post ssn win coming in ‘01. TT is 10-21-1 in bowls but Leach (5-4 SU/3-6 ATS) has half of the wins. TT is 0-2 SU/ATS in Alamo Bowls as their last visit was in ‘01 under Leach (lost 19-16, -1 to Iowa). MSU is 0-5 ATS S/’94 vs current B12 tms and most Spartans have never played inside (1-4 SU/ATS in a dome, last time ‘05) while TT just ended their ssn at Cowboy Stadium (roof closed). Including LY’s bowl MSU has gone 1-6 ATS as a dog the L/2Y but under Leach TT is 2-6 as a bowl fav (4 str ATS losses). Both played 7 bowl elig tms TY but MSU went 1-6 SU/ATS being outgained by 45 ypg while TT was 4-2-1 ATS outgaining foes by 91 ypg. MSU has 10 Sr starters among 17 upperclassmen while TT has 8 and 18.

After having a QB derby all offseason Dantonio finally settled on starting unheralded team leader Cousins over VHT Oklahoma transfer Nichol. Nichol did play a few series in each gm early on, but after suffering an elbow inj vs Illinois, Cousins took over. Cousins finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff despite a run gm which saw 5 diff players start at TB and ended up being led by VHT true frosh Caper and Baker (only 2 of 5 elig for the bowl). Former walk-on All-B10 WR White led the rec corps, but the unit’s depth took a serious hit with just 2 scholarship WR’s avail for the bowl as #2 and #3 rec Cunningham and Dell (74 combined rec) will be susp. Speedster Keshawn Martin is now the #2 WR and he’s the only player in the NCAA this year with 4 TD’s of 70+ yds. The OL struggled early due to inj’s as they started 5 diff lineups in the 1st 5 gms. They settled down to become 1 of the league’s better units actually improving the ypc rushing from 3.3 in ‘08 (with RB Ringer) to 4.2, while allowing fewer sks (24-13). MSU has the #41 off and #50 D. After a strong start the Spartans’ D sputtered allowing over 1500 yds in their final 3 conf games. This is despite the presence of the B10’s Def POY LB Jones who led the conf in tkls. DE Anderson battled inj’s and his sks slipped from 8 in ‘08 to just 4. Prior to the yr DB cch Barnett boasted about having a unit 8-10 deep for the 1st time. Instead of being the D’s strength however it was MSU’s Achilles’ heel as the Spartans finished #100 in pass eff D finishing the year tied for the fewest int (5) in the NCAA while allowing a league worst 29 TD’s. MSU has our #17 ST led by All-B10 K Swenson who is the school’s all time leading scorer.

Coming off their best ssn in school history TT took a step back. TT is still the only B12 school to be bowl elig every yr since the conf was formed in ‘96. TT is known for its potent off (#15), but TT did “only” avg 462 ypg (2nd lowest mark in L8Y) and their 38 ppg is down over a TD from ‘08. The def has allowed 349 ypg (down 34 ypg from LY) and the 22 ppg all’d is the 2nd best mark S/’01. It was a QB carousel midssn as Leach started 3 different players. Potts started the 1st 5 gms but was pulled due to a lack of confidence. He regained his role after coming off the bench and leading a comeback win vs KU. He threw at least 1 int in 8 out of the 10 that he played but showed he can play vs a solid def in the OU gm. TT’s run gm is often overlooked but RB Batch has 3 100+ yd gms incl 2 in the L/4 gms. TT’s top WR is AF transfer Torres who was a walk-on. Overall TT had 8 100+ yd gms by its WR’s. The OL is unique at Tech using very wide splits so the DL has a longer way to get to the QB. They avg 6’5” 308 (3 Sr starters) paving the way for 81 rush ypg (3.4) all’g a surprising 30 sks (4.9%). They are led by 1st Tm B12 OG Carter. Ever since DC McNeill took over the def (#30) has improved. The DL avg 6’2” 266 (3 Sr) all’g a Leach-era best 125 rush ypg (3.3) while accounting for 35.5 (89%) of the tm’s 40 sks (#1 in the B12). They are led by 1st Tm B12 DE Sharpe and 2nd Tm DE Howard who between them have 23 sks! TT is #25 in our pass D rankings allowing 224 ypg (61%) with a 10-8 ratio. TT is ranked #37 on ST’s but Leach would prefer not to punt on most 4th downs (20-29 69%, 2nd in NCAA in atts) and with just 11 FG tries keeps the ball in the offense’s hands.

Two seasons ago MSU was without several susp plyrs in the Champs Sports Bowl and covered with a chance to win. This season, the attitude will be different with horrible personal decisions letting down their teammates, fans and coaching staff. Tech has impressed TY and while they’re known for their off, their def has held 4 Big 12 tms to 14 pts or fewer and has had only one poor outing all year. There may be no bigger edge this bowl season with the TT’s pass offense against Michigan St’s pass D.

FORECAST: TEXAS TECH by 14 RATING: 1* TEXAS TECH

BANG THE BOOK

On one side is South Florida and they have had a decent year but have gone into the usual late season swoon. Unlike other years however they are dealing with allegations. Head coach Jim Leavitt has been accused of grabbing and choking a player during the halftime of the Louisville game, this has to be a distraction for the team. Leavitt was out of town recruiting when the story broke Monday afternoon. The Bulls returned to practice Wednesday after having two days off. A much-larger-than-normal media contingent showed up to interview Leavitt, but the only head coach in the program's 13-year history didn't want to discuss the allegation."I was just so impressed with how they practiced and what they did," Leavitt said. "All of you came out here just to hear that. I'm not going to talk about all the other things that are going on. I'm just not. I don't think that would be fair to the whole deal. So, you can save your questions as far as that goes."Leavitt deflected a question about whether the investigation is a distraction for the team as it prepares to face Northern Illinois in the International Bowl on Jan. 2"You've just got to live every day and enjoy every day," he said. "I'm a blessed guy."This is obviously a distraction. Northern Illinois has the pure stats edge in plenty of categories to include points scored and turnovers. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and the Bulls are 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Huskies to win and pull off a shocker against a distracted Bulls team.

International Bowl Pick: Northern Illinois +7

The Papa John’s.com Bowl is not the most glamorous bowl game that you will see this year but they managed to get some quality teams this year to play in this game. The SEC and the Big East will have two solid representatives in this contest this year.The Huskies of Connecticut will face the South Carolina Gamecocks. For the Huskies it has been a roller coaster year and they had to deal with plenty of adversity to include the death of one of their defensive players. They responded very well as they finished 7-5 on the season and made plenty of money for bettors finishing at a 10-2 clip against the spread. South Carolina had the tough challenge of playing in the most talented conference in the country but managed to put up a a good fight as they finished 7-5 on the season. Steve Spurrier had his struggles on the offensive side of the ball as his team just averaged 21 points a game and that is not good enough to compete in the SEC. This game should be a good one but the edge is to the Huskies. They averaged 39 points a game in the last three games and played well on the road finishing 6-0 on the year. With the defensive numbers about even look for the gamecocks to be outplayed and out coached. The Huskies are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 non-conference games and 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Gamecocks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and will lose this game

Papa Johns Bowl: UConn Huskies +4.5

The Cotton Bowl has put together two exciting teams for one of the most famous bowls on the slate. The Oklahoma St. Cowboys take on the Ole Miss Rebels to see who will emerge the winner of the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma St put together a 9-3 campaign and had to do it without one of its best players. Dez Bryant was lost for the year due to violations that occurred during the season. The once powerful offense took a hit but they still managed to play well in the Big 12 against tough opposition. When it came to the betting window they finished .500 (5-5-1) against the number. Ole Miss brought in Houston Nutt and he brought the rebels to the Promised Land with big wins in the SEC and being ranked during the season. They finished a respectable 8-4 but just .500 (6-6) against the spread. This game provides us with a unique situation because Oklahoma St is ranked #21 in the country yet they are underdogs to the Ole Miss Rebels and they are not ranked. The non-ranked favorite over a ranked team angles has been very profitable in the past when the favorite is bet on. The Cowboy offense has struggled in the last three outings just averaging 18 points a contest and Jevon Snead and the Rebels offense has been rolling right along. The Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and will lose another one in the Cotton Bowl.

Cotton Bowl Pick: Ole Miss -3

The Liberty brings in a team from the SEC and Conference USA and this should be good for both of these teams as the locals can travel to this game and provide great support. Not only that but these teams should put on a good show for all to see. Arkansas finished the year at 7-5 and that is pretty good for the tough SEC. They possess a vicious pass attack that averaged over 300 yards a game and came inches away from beating Florida in the swamp. If not for a questionable call the Hogs may be in a different bowl game this year. East Carolina stunned the experts and upset Houston in the Championship game and finished an impressive 9-4 on the season. The Pirates are moving in a positive direction and do it with a balance on offense and a bend don’t break mentality on defense. This game could set up well for the Pirates. They just faced an explosive offense in Houston and now how to defend against it. The Hogs have a great offense but they have been sputtering only scoring 18 points on average in the last three games. The Pirates thrive in the underdog role as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. This line is close but it is just too many points in the long run to give this scrappy Pirates team.

Liberty Bowl Pick: East Carolina Pirates +7.

The Alamo Bowl will be the night cap on the 4thof January and the last bowl game of the night should provide plenty of fireworks. The explosive offense of the Red Raiders of Texas Tech will match up against the Spartans of Michigan St. The Red Raiders lost some key personnel but still managed to come back and light up the scoreboard while winning some big games. They finished 8-4 on the season and that was good enough to get an invite to the Alamo Bowl. The Spartans of Michigan St got the other invite but it was questionable to some. The Spartans finished just 6-6 on the season and even worse against the number at 4-6-1.They stumbled down the stretch and need to get it together to face Texas Tech. The hype in this game will be all about the offense the Red Raiders bring to the game but don’t sleep on what Michigan St brings to the game. They averaged 30 points game on the season and that number increased when they went on the road. The Red Raiders will have no run game and the pass defense of the Spartans will be up for the challenge. The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. This game is closer than the experts think and this could be one of the biggest upsets of the bowl season.

Alamo Bowl Pick: Michigan St. +8

THE GOLDSHEET

South Florida 27 - Northern Illinois 25—Bowl underdogs, especially those
receiving 7 points or more, have been providing excellent value in the
postseason for a lot longer than the first handful of matchups this December,
which, if anything confirmed that the long-standing trend is alive and well.
Indeed, since 2000, “7+” bowl dogs have covered roughly two-thirds of the time,
with their success further pronounced in the lower-tier bowls. And, technicallyspeaking,
Northern Illinois fits that description for this matchup in Toronto.
But do the Huskies match up favorably in a fundamental sense vs. USF?
Though not conclusive, evidence at least suggests that NIU (“bowling” for the
fourth time since 2004) shouldn’t be outclassed. The Huskies have routinely
punched above their weight, acquitting themselves well on the road vs. a couple
of Big Ten foes this season, playing Wisconsin tough at Camp Randall and
upsetting Purdue, continuing a trend that’s seen the Huskies cover 6 of their last
7 vs. non-MAC foes away from DeKalb. NIU can run (led MAC rushing) with RBs
Chadd Spann (945 YR and 20 TDs) & Me’co Brown (645 YR), and serviceable
soph QB Chandler Harnish will start his second bowl, while its representative ”D”
(paced by big-play DE Jake Coffman) allowed only 21 ppg.
Meanwhile, the Bulls hardly fit the profile of a trustworthy road favorite,
especially with an offense that has blown hot and cold since starting QB Matt
Grothe went down early in the season, as RS frosh reliever B.J. Daniels (only
52.7% completions) delivered a string of uneven performances in his absence.
Losing five of its last seven, USF is not hitting Toronto with a lot of momentum,
and it has dealt with some unwelcome distractions in its bowl prep with HC Jim
Leavitt accused of striking walk-on Joel Miller in the locker room during the Nov.
21 Louisville game. We’re just not convinced that USF is the sort of favorite with
which to buck a compelling trend supporting substantially-priced bowl
dogs...such as the Huskies.

South Carolina 36 - Connecticut 27—We have nothing but respect and
admiration for a fiercely-competitive, gritty UConn squad (5 losses by combined
15 pts., 6-0 as a dog TY), which courageously overcame the tragic murder of
popular and talented CB Jasper Howard following the 35-28 victory vs. Louisville
Oct. 17. Connecticut is making its 3rd straight bowl bid under well-respected
12th-year mentor Randy Edsall. Although the Huskies agonizingly dropped their
next 3 straight games following the Howard tragedy by a combined 8 points, they
won their final 3 contests, closing the regular season by defeating South Florida
29-27 on a 42-yd. FG as time expired. Whew!
The UConn offense (32 ppg), spearheaded by the dynamic RB duo of Jordan
Todman (1152 YR, 5.1 ypc) and Andre Dixon (967 YR, 4.7 ypc), became more
balanced as the aerial game opened up down the stretch under blossoming
Zach Frazer (54%, 9 TDs, 9 ints.), who developed solid rapport with go-to 6-3
WR Marcus Easley (44 grabs, 8 TDs). But that unit mustered only 5 offensive
TDs vs. the top 3 defenses it faced (North Carolina, Rutgers & Pitt). For Frazer
to spread the field with play-action, the formidable ground assault must be
established early, which is no guarantee vs. a totally-healthy, tenacious South
Carolina defense (3rd in SEC behind Bama & Florida; 3.8 ypc allowed in RB-rich
SEC), featuring menacing A-A LB Eric Norwood (29 career sacks) & highlyactive
DEs Cliff Matthews & Clifton Geathers (brother of Cincinnati Bengal DE
Robert Geathers; 3½ sacks), who is playing is best career ball after an earlyseason
suspension and injury. That unit limited Clemson superstar RB C.J.
Spiller to mere 18 YR in 9 carries.
Have more faith the USC arsenal takes advantage of a penetrable Husky
defense (25 ppg; ranked last in Big East) that took a serious hit with the seasonending
injury to stud LB Greg Lloyd (2nd-leading tackler) late in campaign.
Better decision-making, mobile jr. QB Stephen Garcia (57%, 2733 YP, 17 TD, 9
ints.) & his rangy WRs, 6-3 frosh phenom Alshon Jeffery (43 catches, 6 TDs)
and 6-5 Tori Gurley (28) should repeatedly burn a smallish, frosh/soph laden
UConn 2ndary (94th nationally, 67% completions), aided by darting 5-9 frosh RB
Miles (602 YR, 5.4 ypc; 114 YR vs. Clemson). Worth mentioning the Husky “D”
still had problems despite facing 6 straight Big East squads led by green, 1styear
QBs due to injury or graduation! And SEC insiders tell us redemptive
Garcia is taking a more serious
approach to this bowl after being reprimanded by Spurrier for playing video
games (they weren’t even football!) instead of studying the playbook the night
before the nightmarish 31-10 loss vs. Iowa in LY’s Outback Bowl, when he threw
3 early “picks” before getting the hook.
Moreover, 7-5 Carolina (underdog in 8 games TY) enjoys greater fan support,
with 13,000+ making the trek down I-20 to Birmingham’s Legion Field, where
“Darth Visor” won the 1993 SEC title game when he was the Florida head man.
And lastly, give crucial kicking edge to USC’s accurate PK Lanning (17 of 20
FGs; 3 of 4 beyond 40) over unreliable counterpart Taggert (just 12 of 21; 3 of 8
beyond 40).

Oklahoma State 24 - Mississippi 22—Ole Miss (+4½) upset Texas Tech 47-
34 in this bowl LY, overcoming a 14-0 deficit with three first-half TDP by Jevan
Snead and 515 yards of total offense. But the Rebels might have a hard time
repeating vs. defensively-improved Oklahoma State, which will be wellsupported
by Cowboy fans eager to travel south for a look at Jerry Jones’ new
palace for his NFL Cowboys.
Both teams are dealing with an X-factor in this game. For Ole Miss, it’s
whether QB Snead (only 54% TY, 20 TDs, but 17 ints.) can rediscover his 2008
form. And for OSU, it’s whether star RB Kendall Hunter (1555 YR in 2008; only
288 TY due to a long-lingering ankle/foot injury) has finally regained the
quickness that helped make the Cowboys a feared attack last year.
OSU reverted to a ball-control offense in 2009 after big-play WR Dez Bryant
(87 recs., 19 TDC in 2008; 17 recs., 4 TDC in just three games TY) was
suspended for misleading the NCAA regarding dubious offseason connections.
But careful, dual-threat, sr. QB Zac Robinson (62%, 15 TDs, 8 ints.; 296 YR) was
able to manage the attack well. Counting on a strong OL (5th in fewest sacks
allowed), an improved defense (6th vs. the run), and just enough passing, the
Cowboys suffered 2009 losses only to pass-happy Houston, powerful Texas,
and at Oklahoma.
Mississippi coach Houston Nutt has strong ties to OSU. His mother & father
went to Oklahoma State, Nutt finished his playing career and started his
coaching career in Stillwater, and he met his wife there. Nutt was a also WR
coach when current Cowboy HC Mike Gundy was playing QB! But with Ole Miss
QB Snead battling inconsistency and interceptions TY, Nutt has turned more to
electric RB/WR Dexter McCluster (985 YR, 6.7 ypc; 39 recs.) as his “Wild Rebel”
QB. McCluster will be challenged by a strong trio of OSU LBs in srs. Donald
Booker, Patrick Lavine & Andre Sexton, backed by high-quality sr. CB/KR
Perrish Cox (5 ints., 2 return TDs TY).
In a game that could be marked by offensive inconsistency, will lean to the
steadier, more consistent QB—the Cowboys’ Zac Robinson—even though he’s
missing his big-play target.

ARKANSAS 35 - East Carolina 33—Go-with vs. go-with. Arkansas
definitely appears to be on the rise in the rugged SEC, as second-year head
coach Bobby Petrino is 12-5-1 vs. the spread in his last 18 games on the board
(including a near-monumental upset at then No. 1-ranked Florida this past
October). East Carolina earned its second straight Conference USA title (and
second straight trip to the Liberty Bowl) by winning six of its last seven games,
and the well-prepared Pirates are a very profitable 22-10 against the line as an
underdog since Skip Holtz took the helm at Greenville back in 2005.
The potent Razorbacks (37 ppg) definitely have the offensive wherewithal to
win this game by a comfortable margin and cover the fair price. But prefer to
take generous points with ECU, which is a lot sounder defensively than many CUSA
entries. The Pirates were able to slow down the prolific attacks of Tulsa
and Houston in winning the last two conference championship games, so the
veteran ECU defense (33 takeaways—No. 4 in the nation) shouldn’t be
overwhelmed by the pass-happy Hogs. With Fayetteville scouts reporting some
recent friction between Petrino and star 6-7 QB Ryan Mallett (29 TDP, only 7
ints.), who’s expected to leave early for the NFL, it won’t be a big surprise if the
Pirates are able to trade points most of the way. After all, ECU’s offense was
jelling down the stretch behind sixth-year sr. QB Patrick Pinkney (264 ypg
passing on 66% completions with no ints. in the last 4 games). Plus, the Pirates
possess this tilt’s top ground threat in sr. RB Dominique Lindsay (1029 YR on 5
ypc), as sr. Michael Smith, who’s out with a hamstring injury, led the unbalanced
UA attack with only 396 YR on the season.

*TEXAS TECH 29 - Michigan State 26—Analysis of this game became
clouded weeks ago, following a brawl at a potluck dinner Nov. 22 at a Michigan
State campus dormitory. Since then, HC Mark Dantonio has either dismissed or
suspended 11 Spartans, none of whom will play. Most of the players were
backups or reserves, but the group included WRs B.J. Cunningham (48 recs., 4
TDs) & Mark Dell (26 recs., 1 TD), plus starting CB Chris L. Rucker, the team’s
4th-leading tackler. Thus, MSU goes into the game short-handed at WR and
might have issues at other positions should there be any injuries during the
game. But we think the 6-6 Spartans can still be competitive.
After all, MSU battled injuries virtually all season, allowing the team to develop
its backups. Top WR Blair White (64 recs., 8 TDs) and quick 5-8 soph Keshawn
Martin (14 recs., 4 TDs) are still around, and the Spartans are deep at TE.
Emerging frosh RBs Larry Caper & Edwin Baker (773 combined YR) provide a
ground attack. And the defense still has plenty of veterans in the secondary to
contend with Texas Tech’s volatile passing game. Soph QB Kirk Cousins
(61.5%, 18 TDs, 7 ints.) and the offense improved steadily TY, scoring 36 ppg
the last four. Of Michigan State’s 6 losses, only one was by more than 8 points,
and one (15-13 vs. Iowa) came on fourth down on the very last play of the game!
Mike Leach’s Red Raider team had another productive year, going 8-4,
finishing No. 2 in passing, No. 7 in offense, No. 9 in defense, and even No. 2 in
defensive sacks (DE Brandon Sharpe 15!). RB Baron Batch rushed for 784
yards. But Leach was often frustrated by inconsistent OL play, QB sacks, and
turnovers (28; only 10 teams had more). And he criticized his players in October
for their inconsistent effort and, infamously, for being distracted by their “fat little
girlfriends.” 6-5 jr. QB Taylor Potts (65.6%, 20 TDs, 12 ints.; 7 TDs, 0 ints. vs.
Rice) gets the start. LY’s QB (Graham Harrell) read defenses better and had a
quicker release. Tech was only 2-3 SU on the road TY. And the Raiders went
“over” only 3 times (3-7-1 O-U) in 11 games on the line.

TEDDY COVERS

Best Bet: Oklahoma State +3

Cotton Bowl @ Dallas O/U 51.5 11 am PT
After tons of preseason accolades, Ole Miss suffered a pair of early season losses with
an offense that was unable to move the ball at all against South Carolina and Alabama.
The Rebels suffered two more losses later in the year against Auburn and Mississippi
State. In those two defeats, the Rebels’ biggest weakness was on the defensive side
of the football; unable to stop the power rushing game in both instances, with their
best defensive lineman, Greg Hardy, out for the year. Jevan Snead is no gamebreaker,
the SEC’s leader in interceptions this season, struggling with his accuracy, his decision
making and his confidence. Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster were both legitimate
playmakers, but this offense lacks many complementary pieces. Oklahoma State has
those complementary pieces, as evidenced by their nine-win season despite losing
star receiver Dez Bryant to ineligibility and star running back Kendall Hunter to injury.
The Cowboys came up very short against the two best defenses they faced – Texas
and Oklahoma. But OSU moved the football up and down the field against nearly every
other defense they faced, scoring 30+ on eight different occasions. Take the points

DONNIE BLACK

Best Bet: Northern Illinois +7

International Bowl @ Toronto O/U 49 9 am PT
Motivation aside, South Florida hasn’t done much this season to warrant being favored
by a touchdown on a neutral field against a sound team like Northern Illinois. The Huskies
do have flaws and come from a conference that hasn’t fared well in the postseason
over the last few years but with a decent defense and recent experience of competition
against major conference foes, you have to consider them a live underdog. Northern
Illinois posted one score losses to postseason participants Wisconsin, Ohio and Idaho
and also won outright at Purdue. Overall, NIU has lost 12 games the past two seasons
and all but three of those defeats were by one score or less. As for South Florida, losing
quarterback Matt Grothe for the season didn’t have the cataclysmic results most
thought but in the end, his experience and on-the-field leadership would have certainly
helped. The Bulls were 7-5 with wins over I-AA Wofford and Charleston Southern.
In their remaining ten games they were outscored 247-218. I won’t go overboard with
angles on why South Florida isn’t likely to bring a full effort – although I think it will be a
factor. The names on the jersey suggest a large gap but I just don’t see it. Take the points.

FAIRWAY JAY

Best Bet: Arkansas -7.5

Liberty Bowl @ Memphis, Tenn. O/U 63.5 2:30 pm PT
We finished 2009 on a 9-1 Best Bet run and we’ll look to go “Hog Wild” as we kickoff
the New Year at the Liberty Bowl. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallet was the SEC’s
top passer this season and should have a big game against a ECU pass defense that
allowed 262 ypg and over 62% completions against lesser competition. Arkansas
played nine bowl teams this season and averaged over 410 yards offense and suffered
a pair of three-point defeats to SEC heavyweights Florida and LSU. Meanwhile,
East Carolina played eight bowl teams and were outgained by an average
of 406-333. East Carolina lost by double-digits to their three toughest opponents
and with a sub-par running game, Pirates senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney will
be pressed into more passing to keep pace. We must respect ECU’s experienced
team and superior special teams along with head coach Skip Holtz’ 22-7 ATS mark
in the underdog role, but Arkansas was able to roll to big wins and against similar
or better defenses of Mississippi State, Auburn and Texas A&M. While this is a neutral
field, Arkansas fans should be the dominant supporters as the Razorbacks roll.

HELMUT SPORTS

Best Bet: UConn +4.5

Papajohns.com Bowl @ Birmingham, Ala. O/U 51.5 11 am PT
The Huskies lost five games by a grand total of 15 points. They were no strangers
to the underdog role this season finding themselves in this spot on six occasions
and covering all six. They played well on the offensive side for the entire season
which enabled running backs Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon to combine for
2,119 yards. Quarterback Zach Frazer has played well down the stretch directing the
team to a three-game winning streak 40.8 ppg its last four games. The Gamecocks
are coming off their best game of the season where they beat Clemson decisively
but their body of work this season is just not that impressive. Prior to the Clemson
game they had lost three in a row and managed only two wins by more than seven
points with those coming against weak competition. The Gamecocks did not
run the ball well this season finishing dead last in the SEC and 91st nationally. USC
will try to exploit UConn’s secondary, which is the weakest part of its defense. The
Huskies did however weather the storm against the strong passing attacks of Cincinnati
and Notre Dame and I would expect the same against the Gamecocks.

SPORTS INSIGHTS

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida

Northern Illinois finished their season on a sour note, losing their final two games against Ohio and Central Michigan, the top two teams in the MAC. After a hot start, South Florida also struggled down the stretch, dropping five of their final seven games.

South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and public betting has pushed the line to -7. The Bulls are currently receiving 73% of spread bets, yet SportsInsights' Betting Systems have found value on the Huskies, triggering four positive Smart Money plays on Northern Illinois. Like our first game, two of these moves are from ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units), giving us the confidence to go against the public percentages and take the Huskies +7.

Northern Illinois +7

Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State

Coming off big wins against Tennessee and LSU, Mississippi was flat in their final game of the regular season, losing 41-27 to in-state rival Mississippi State. In the 2009 edition of the Oklahoma Bedlam Football Game, the Cowboys got thoroughly dominated by the Sooners, mustering a measley 109 yards of total offense in the 27-0 loss.

Mississippi opened as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Sharp money has jumped all of this game, triggering six positive Smart Money plays on Oklahoma State, including moves from, yes, you guessed it, ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/Vegas Vic (+20.26 units). The Rebels are a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but Mississippi is giving an extra half-point at Carib, moving the spread off the key number of three. We like the Cowboys and are grabbing the three and a half while it's still out there.

Oklahoma State +3.5

St. Bernadine Sports

3* Chicago Blackhawks (-160) over St. Louis Blues
This will mark the second of six meetings between these two teams and the Hawks are the dominant team. The Hawks have had a great first half of hockey and pretty much injury free. Kane is still on fire leading the team with 45 points and has 7 G, 4 A during his six-game point streak. Cristobal Huet has a 1.01 GAA in his last four starts against the Blues and Chicago has scored at least four goals in each of the past four games, while St. Louis has allowed at least four goals in each of its past four games. A very big offensive night will be in store for Chicago coming up tonight. Take CHICAGO

2* Calgary Flames (-180) over Toronto Maple Leafs
This will be the second time for these two teams to meet this season. Calgary won 5-2 at Toronto and we will likely see the same type of game tonight. Calgary has shown a very organized shutdown kind of defense that is stopping teams left and right. The Leafs continue to struggle offensively and the Flames are healthy in every aspect, which makes for a good showing for the offense of Calgary. Look for a continued dominance for the Flames and Bourque of the Flames to bust out more points Take CALGARY

2* Colorado Avalanche (+100) over Columbus Blue Jackets
This will be the third of four meetings for these two teams. The Avalanche have won both previous matchups by decisive marks. The Avalanche are playing great hockey, while the Blue Jackets have been struggling tremendously winning only one game in the past 12. The Jackets D have been horrendous and are slowly falling apart. Colorado is 12-8-4 on the road this season, while Columbus is 9-6-5 at Nationwide Arena. This should make for an interesting game tonight especially as main scorers such as Rick Nash and Jakub Voracek are not scoring for the Jackets. Take COLORADO

2* Pittsburgh Penguins (-145) over Tampa Bay Lightning
This is the second meeting between these teams and Pittsburgh had a commanding defeat in the first matchup. This will be an interesting game as the Pens have not been playing as they should be. I feel that tonight will be the night when Pittsburgh comes out of their funk and opens up some offense. Tampa Bay is missing four key players and are feeling that weight on their shoulders. Big night in store for the Pens. Take PITTSBURGH

1* Anaheim Ducks (-125) over Nashville Predators
This will mark the second meeting between these two teams as Anaheim won the first in 4-0. I am not going off of that win as to why I am choosing the Ducks. I am going off of their leading scorer Martin Erat being out for the next 7-10 days, Kevin Klein day-to-day, Jerred Smithson (broken hand), Jordin Tootoo (broken foot), and Colin Wilson (groin). They are without many key players and the Ducks have won the last three meetings with the Predators dating back to last season. A great matchup between these two teams and will be very interesting to watch. Take ANAHEIM

Jeff Benton

For Saturday’s free play in bowl action, I’ll take Northern Illinois plus the points against South Florida.

I really question South Florida’s enthuSIAsm and mindset coming into this game in Toronto. The Bulls started the year 5-0, including an upset at Florida State, which vaulted them into the Top 25 and had them thinking they would be competing for a Big East title and/or a marquee bowl game. But they fell apart down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games and have been relegated to a bowl game north of the border against a MAC opponent, and it’s an early start, too.

Northern Illinois, on the other hand, is happy to be in any bowl game against any opponent. In fact, it’s the first time in school history that the Huskies have qualified for the postseason in back-to-back years. And you have to believe they’ll be highly motivated to put forth a good effort, especially given the fact they lost to LouiSIAna Tech in last year’s Independence Bowl.

Northern Illinois started the year 7-3 (including a 28-21 upset win at Purdue and a competitive 28-20 loss at Wisconsin as a 16 ½-point underdog), and though it did drop its final two games to Ohio and Central Michigan – the two teams that played for the MAC title – it scored 31 points in both games (and it thoroughly outplayed Ohio, outgaining the Bobcats by 182 yards and losing by seven points after giving up a punt return for a TD and an INT for a score). At the same time, during its 2-5 SU and ATS slump to end the season, South Florida scored 17, 14, 0 and 10 points in four of the losses, and the defense gave up 29, 31, 31, 41 and 34 points in the five losses.

The Huskies have covered in four of their last five in this price range (underdog of 3½ to 10 points), and South Florida has failed to cash in 13 of their last 18 games against opponents with a winning record. Take the points with the team that’s much more excited to be playing at 11 a.m. in Toronto.

5♦ NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Stephen Nover

I'll lay this number with a good Big East team against maybe the fourth-best team in the MAC. We saw with Ohio, a team that defeated Northern Illinois, that the MAC isn't very good. Ohio lost to Marshall, a .500 team from Conference USA, in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl.

Big East teams have defeated their MAC opponents by an average of 20 points during the past two years in this bowl game.

Northern Illinois is a Midwest team that would be better suited playing on a sloppy track. This game, though, is being played inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Playing on carpet is a big plus for South Florida, which runs a spread offense and has more team speed than Northern Illinois. That speed is going to be magnified in this setting.

Northern Illinois doesn't have enough linebacking depth to handle South Florida's spread attack. The Huskies faced a similar offense in their last game and surrendered 45 points to Central Michigan.

South Florida freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels has done a good job replacing injured senior quarterback Matt Grothe. Daniels threw for 1,766 yards and rushed for 798 yards while starting the past nine games.

The Bulls have one of the top pass-rushing tandems in the country with Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie. They combined for nine sacks and 24 tackles for losses helping South Florida rank third in the Big East in total defense.

South Florida will have a decided edge in the trenches. I'm not putting much stock in the Bulls being distracted by accusations that head coach Jim Leavitt struck a walk-on player during a game in November. That was more than a month ago. The Bulls have too much of a size and talent gap for Northern Illinois to keep this close.

3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA

Bobby Maxwell

College football FREE winner for you today as I go with UConn to get the job done in the Papa John's Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

I like the way UConn has responded to the death of teammate Jasper Howard. The Huskies lost three straight close calls immediately after the death but responded with three straight wins to close the season, including tight victories over Notre Dame and South Florida.

The Huskies have a never-say-die attitude and that three-game losing streak was very tough to swallow, falling by a combined 10 points to West Virginia, Rutgers and Cincinnati – all three bowl teams. They then went to Notre Dame and got a 33-30 OT victory as six-point ‘dogs and then clobbered Syracuse before edging South Florida in the season finale, 29-27.

UConn has a wonderful rushing attack, with the tandem of Jordan Todman (1,201 yards and 14 TDs) and Andre Dixon (988 yards and 13 TDs). This team averaged 40.8 points a game over the last four games and they produced 400 yards per game, including 172.8 rushing yards per contest.

South Carolina lost three of four down the stretch and four of six to close the season. They were blown out at Tennessee, at Arkansas and at home vs. Florida before wrapping up the season with a 34-17 win over Clemson as a three-point favorite. The Gamecocks’ offense is very shaky, totaling just 63 points in five straight games before the finale vs. Clemson. They averaged just 21.8 points a game for the season and 359.2 yards per contest. And defensively, this team gets manhandled in losses, allowing 29.3 points a game during the three-game losing streak.

UConn went 5-0 ATS as a road ‘dog this season and they are on a 6-0 ATS run overall. The Huskies are also on ATS runs of 10-2 overall, 7-2 against winning teams and 35-17-1 in non-conference action. South Carolina was just 1-3 as a favorite this season.

Grab the points and look for the toughness of UConn to wear down the ‘Cocks. Play the Huskies.

4♦ UCONN