Karl Garrett
Air Force for free on Thursday.
Northwestern for free on Friday.
G-Man going with the favorite on Saturday, as I look for South Carolina to distance themselves from Connecticut before this game is all said and done.
Connecticut has won their last 3 games, but their defense has surrendered 155 points, and over 2,000 yards over their last 4 games, and they have come up empty as far as getting an interception the last 142 passes thrown against them.
You just get the feeling that Steve Spurrier, and his staff are well aware of the defensive short-coming on the Huskies side of the ball, and they will have their team prepared today after getting blasted 31-10 in their bowl game last year versus Iowa.
UConn's 5 losses this season have come by a combined 15 points, you just have to wonder how many more times can the Huskies go to the well, and keep it close?
I think it ends today against the Gamecocks.
South Carolina minus the points the G-Man's call on Saturday.
2♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Chris Jordan
There are so many stats and trends pointing this game to the Over, but I'm not falling for the trap, and like this game to be won in the trenches and to stay Under the posted number.
Arkansas, which has stayed under the total in six straight bowl games and four straight postseason contests in January, will be geared toward limiting an East Carolina offense that averaged 38.5 points per game during its six-game Conference USA winning streak.
The Razorbacks are well aware of how dangerous the Pirates are on defense, and need to make their own statement with their stop unit.
Honestly, the Pirates saw their barrage os points climb toward the end of the season, when they played teams they were able to either blow out, or compete with offensively.
But when faced with a more physical team, like West Virginia, North Carolina or Virginia Tech, Skip Holtz's boys were limited to what they could do.
And don't read into this, I'm not siding with Arkansas, as I'm not so sure it can cover the touchdown-plus in what is sure to be a great ball game.
I simply believe we're going to see a pair of defensive units step up to keep their teams in contention the whole game. Play this one low, as the Under comes in around the high 50s.
4♦ UNDER ARKANSAS/EAST CAROLINA
JACK CLAYTON
East Carolina/Arkansas
Pick: East Carolina
East Carolina (9-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has a ton of returning talent on offense, and after a slow first half of the season the offense is clicking now. Senior QB Patrick Pinkney (14 TDs, 10 INTs, 2,739 yards) and senior RB Dominique Lindsay (1,029 yards, 5.0 ypc) lead a balanced offense that averages 27.8 points, 149 yards rushing and 218 passing for coach Skip Holtz. They played Virginia Tech twice the last two seasons (1 win) and are used to playing with the big boys (and playing well). Arkansas has a soft defense, too. Play East Carolina.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is in the Cotton Bowl... and my money is on Ole Miss. Honestly I just don't believe in Oklahoma State. Sure, they had a really good season, but they ended it in horrendous fashion... getting shut out 27-0 by the Oklahoma Sooners. They barely amassed 100 total yards for the game and looked as if they had never played an offensive snap all season. I think OU gave Ole Miss the blueprint for stopping QB Zac Robinson... get pressure in his face. He doesn't have his best target, Dez Bryant, to throw to, and that's going to put added pressure on him when he gets in trouble in the pocket. OSU's bread and butter is clearly their run game, but Ole Miss has actually been very good at times stopping the run. If they do that today, the Pokes are going to find themselves in serious trouble when Robinson drops back to pass. Last year they were supposed to dominate Oregon in the Holiday Bowl, but found out just how tough it is to play teams with athleticism and speed... similar to the team they're about to see today. Ole Miss will play good enough defense today to keep the OSU running game in check while forcing Robinson into third and longs. Ole Miss will do the same thing to a Big 12 school they did last year... shock the team, their fans, and the nation. Ole Miss wins today by at least 7.
3♦ OLE MISS
Dominic Fazzini
Chalked up another winner with my complimentary selection Friday, rolling with Florida in its 51-24 victory over Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. That win pushed my record to 52-31 over the past 83 days, including a 35-18 run over the last 53!
I've got another winner lined up for today with Oklahoma State, although I can't promise you it will come in as easily as the Gators did Friday night.
The Cowboys should be able to run the ball today, with Keith Toston carrying much of the load. The senior running back has rushed for 1,177 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and heads a ground game that ranked 24th in the nation with 191.8 ypg.
Multi-talented running back Dexter McCluster is Mississippi's top offensive weapon, but he faces a tough task today against an Oklahoma State defense that allows just 87.7 ypg on the ground, ranking sixth in the nation. The Cowboys give up 329.9 total yards and 21.8 points per game.
If the Rebels have to rely on QB Jevan Snead to win the game for them, they might be in trouble as the junior has completed just 54.3 percent of his throws with 17 interceptions to go with his 20 TD passes.
Oklahoma City has been the more consistent team this season, losing only to bowl teams Texas, Oklahoma and Houston. And Ole Miss in on ATS slides of 1-4 in its last five games overall and 1-4 as a favorite. Take the underdog Cowboys to cover the points today.
2♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Brett Atkins
Tonight I'm right back on the college gridiron with a free winner in the Liberty Bowl matchup as I lay the chalk with Arkansas against East Carolina.
The Razorbacks have been making significant strides since Bobby Petrino arrived in Arkansas. They have a dominant offense and just lost in a thriller in the regular-season finale.
I love Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett who threw for 3,422 yards, 29 TDs and just seven INTs. His offense has managed at least 30 points in each of their final five games and averaged 45 points a game during that stretch. This kid has a cannon of an arm and the passion to compete.
Defensively, the Razorbacks held six of its final nine foes to 23 points or less. It’s a bend-don’t-break defense but you’ll see it come out with fire in its eyes to shut down East Carolina.
Last year, the Pirates were in this Liberty Bowl and fell 25-19 to a Kentucky team that didn’t play any defense. East Carolina was a three-point favorite in that one and didn’t every get the offense going against an SEC team built much like this Arkansas squad.
The Razorbacks are on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Pirates have failed to cover in six straight lined non-conference games.
The SEC is clearly the best conference in college football and Arkansas is in the upper echelon of that conference. Go ahead and lay the chalk with the Razorbacks as they continue to make strides under coach Petrino. Play Arkansas.
4♦ ARKANSAS
Jay McNeil
I hit a rare clunker with my free play Friday, as Oregon couldn't make it happen against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Even with that loss, I'm still 8-2 over the past 10 days, and I'll be rebounding today with Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.
The Razorbacks have an explosive offense that ranks seventh nationally in points (37.3 per game), 14th in total offense (439.3 ypg) and 10th in passing (317.3 ypg).
Arkansas scored at least 30 points in nine of its 12 games, and averaged 44.8 points over its last five, going 4-1 SU and ATS.
Razorbacks QB Ryan Mallett is a rising star, throwing for 3,425 yards and 29 touchdowns with just seven interceptions this season. And the team features four players who have rushed for at least 300 yards and five players who have at least 300 yards receiving, so East Carolina's defense can't focus on just one or two players.
Arkansas has struggled at times on defense, but its biggest problems have come against the pass, and the Pirates move the ball primarily on the ground.
The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records, while East Carolina is 2-5 ATS against winning teams. Take Arkansas to pile up points and cover the spread today.
2♦ ARKANSAS
Joel Tyson
5-2 FREE play run the last 7 days!
Going to get after it early this Saturday, and take the points with the Huskies of Northern Illinois.
Not that I am crazy about a MAC school going up against a Big East school, but let's face it, South Florida's 2-5 close to the season is not a mark that gives one confidence when laying around a touchdown.
Northern Illinois has covered 6 of their last 7 away from home in non-conference play, including a cover at Wisconsin, and an outright win at Purdue earlier this season.
Bottom line: Northern Illinois may not win this game, but they will not be blown out.
Take the points.
2♦ Northern Illinois
Chuck O'Brien
Take Texas Tech and lay the points in the Alamo Bowl in Saturday’s college football action.
Not at all worried about the whole Mike Leach controversy, because Mike Leach doesn’t run, throw, block, cover or tackle. That’s the job of the guys on the field, and the fact is the Red Raiders have more talent than Michigan State – and that’s even if the Spartans were at full strength.
In fact, if you want to talk about team controversies, Michigan State’s turmoil will have more of an impact on this game than Texas Tech’s. The Spartans will be minus eight suspended scholarship players, including four starters. Two of those starters happen to be Michigan State’s second- and third-leading wide receivers. Well, guess what the Spartans’ strength is on offense? Throwing the ball (they average 271.2 passing ypg).
Michigan State doesn’t have a single marquee win on its ledger, as it lost to Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State, and the Spartans went just 1-6 against teams that qualified for a bowl game (including Notre Dame, which qualified but didn’t accept a bowl bid). Meanwhile, the Red Raiders beat Nebraska (31-10 on the road) and Oklahoma (41-13 at home), and they not only went to Austin and gave Texas a real tough time (losing 34-24 as 19½-point road underdog), but they outgained the Longhorns 414-340.
You know about Texas Tech’s deadly offense (it averaged 36.7 points, 461.9 total yards and 380.7 passing yards per game), but the Raiders’ defense was highly underrated, allowing just 21.8 points and 349 yards per game. Speaking of defense, Michigan State didn’t play much of it. The Spartans gave up 42, 37 and 42 points in three of their last four games and surrendered 415.7 ypg (271 passing) over their final three contests. They’re also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last eight against winning teams and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Big 12. Also, Michigan State lost its last two bowl games, including a 24-12 setback to Georgia last Jan. 1.
5♦ TEXAS TECH
LARRY NESS
Louisville @ Kentucky
PICK: Louisville +7.5
John Calipari and Rick Pitino are two of CBB's most successful coaches and quoting Calipari, "We've gone nose to nose many times in the NBA and in college and they were all good games. They were all wars and I would expect this is going to be the same." The third-ranked Wildcats (14-0) host the Cardinals (10-3) at Rupp Arena on Saturday and while Pitino-led teams have twice beaten Calipari-led teams in the NCAA tournament, things are different in this game. For the first time it's Calipari, not Pitino, who is coaching the favorite. It's Calipari, not Pitino, who has the roster filled with high school All-Americans. Then there is the fact that it's now Pitino, not Calipari, who will be viewed as the villain. Pitino abruptly left Kentucky after he led them to a national championship and three Final Fours in the 1990s for an ill-fated run coaching the Celtics. If that wasn't bad enough, he returned to college hoops at hated Louisville. Now throw in Pitino's tumultuous summer in which he admitted to having an affair with a woman later accused of trying to extort him for millions and Calipari looks pretty good. That's not easy, as he's now seen both of his Final Four teams at two different schools (U Mass and Memphis), forced to vacate those appearances due to rules infractions (of course, like Sgt Schultz in Hogan's Heroes, Calipari "knows nothing!"). Now to the game. The Wildcats are off to the best start in 32 years behind the play of freshman guard John Wall (17.2-4.0-7.5). How good would Kentucky be if Jodie Meeks (23.7 PPG last year) stayed in school? As is, two more freshman, the 6-11 Cousins (15.2-9.0) and guard Bledsoe (10.1), have joined Wall and the team's best returning player, the 6-9 Patterson (16.6-8.6), to form quite a nucleus. Two 6-7 swingmen who are both sophs, Dodson (8.7) and Miller (8.2) complete the major contributors. Louisville stumbled in early December losing home games to Charlotte and Western Carolina but enter this game on a five-game winning streak, helped by a renewed commitment to Pitino's full-court pressure D. The key will be, can Louisville press the Wildcats and the lightning-quick Wall? Pitino sure misses last year's dynamic duo of the 6-9 Clark (14.2-8.7) and the 6-6 Williams (12.5-8.6-5.0) but the 6-9 Samuels (16.4-7.6) is off to an excellent start to his sophomore season plus veteran guards Sosa (13.3-4.3 APG) and Smith (8.7-3.7-2.6) know how to handle the pressure of playing in a game like this. The 6-8 Swopshire (8.0-5.7) and swingman Delk (6.7) are also both quality players for the Cardinals. Kentucky's "passed every test" so far and while they may 'pass' this one as well, it won't come easy and I "want the points!"
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arkansas/E. Carolina OVER 63.5
Bottom Line: I have uncovered a system I can't refuse in this one. Plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63, Arkansas in this case, in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 yards per game of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games, are 26-6 ATS the last 10 seasons. The average posted total in these games is 67.8 and the average combined score if 78.7. With the way both of these offenses performed down the home stretch of the regular season, I'm expecting a high scoring shootout here. Take the Over for 1 Unit.
Tom Freese
CS-Northridge at Pacific
Prediction: Pacific
Pacific is 12-3-1 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games. The Tigers are 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 Saturday games and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 7.0 to 12.5 points. Cal St Northridge 4-9-1 ATS as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points and they are 1-4 ATS off an ATS loss. The Matadors are 1-5 ATS off a straight up loss and the road team is 0-4 ATS the last 4 meetings. PLAY ON PACIFIC -
LEE KOSTROSKI
William & Mary @ Hofstra
PICK: William & Mary +1.5
Hofsta has played a fairly easy schedule, and their numbers are far from dominating as you’ll see. They are 8-5 on the season, including 6-1 at home. However, their home competition has been extremely weak. Their home wins have come against Yale, Farmingdale State (that’s not a misprint), Elon, Fairfield, Manhattan and New Hampshire. Not a murderer’s row to say the least. They lost by 8 points at home to Charlotte. Despite their winning record, they have a negative points per possession ratio (PPP) meaning they have allowed more points per possession this year than they have scored. A definite signal of an over valued team. For comparison’s sake, W&M’s PPP ratio is a positive +.049 and that is vs. a much tougher schedule.
Hofstra has better overall defensive numbers, however W&M stats aren’t bad on that side of the ball. Offensively is where the Pride really takes the cake. The have the 11th best eFG% in the nation which factors in both 2 point % and 3 point %. They turn the ball over only 10 times per game (7th in the country) which really limits their opponents “extra” opportunities with the ball. They are a “team” in every sense of the word. They share the ball with a 1.528 assist to turnover ratio which is fantastic. Offensively W&M is very difficult to stop.
No doubt the better team is getting points here. We’ll grab them for the easy win as William & Mary continues to roll on the road. They’ve beaten much better teams away from home and will again here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Ole Miss/Oklahoma State UNDER 51
Oklahoma State's improved defense, one that held its opponents to just 18.2 ppg when playing away from home this season, is the reason why the Cowboys were 7-4 to the Under in all lined games this season. Additionally, Ole Miss' defense wasn't too shabby, allowing just 18.6 ppg on the season. Neither of these teams had the seasons they expected to have, but I expect them to really battle it out in this one. You also have to like the fact that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (Oklahoma State) in major bowl games (played in January), in a non-conference game between two teams from major FBS conferences are 12-2 the last 5 seasons. Zooming in even closer we see that this system is a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons. We'll bet the Under in this one.
Matt Rivers
Arkansas/East Carolina Under
Ryan Mallet is a total stud that will be playing on Sundays for sure and the Razorbacks offense is ridiculously explosive but I still believe that this total is a bit too high. Besides the Idaho-Bowling Green game most hefty totals in this bowl season have stayed under and I can see that trend continuing today in Memphis.
Skip Holtz’ Pirates have played in some shootouts including that last game against Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars but they also have an upside with their defense as I saw first hand against Virginia Tech. They allow in the mid 20’s most of the time and play an Arkansas team that I expect to be a bit rusty early on in this game after the long layoff.
Offensive teams like Oregon, Auburn, Missouri, Houston and others have been victimized by the circumstances and played very subpar games. I’m not saying that Arkansas won’t score 30 plus but at this total they pretty much need to hit 45 or so because I don’t see East Carolina going ballistic at all.
The Razorbacks have had issues tackling and playing defense at times but those problems came at the expense of much much better offenses and teams overall in the SEC than what ECU has to offer.
I can see 31-17 in this thing and that’s more than fine with me.