Andre Gomes
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Chiefs / Colts Under 46
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I expect this contest to be a low scoring game due to the nature of both team's offensive mindsets and their improved defenses going to today's matchup.
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It's no secret that KC will try to establish their running game w/ Jamal Charles and control the flow of the game w/ Alex Smith. Meanwhile, the Colts are also a run-heavy oriented team, although lately they are more a pass-control offensive team. Both teams simply don't want to commit Turnovers and they were great during the regular season in this department w/ IND ranked #1 w/ 0.88 TO/game while IND was #2 w/ 1.12 TO/game.
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The h2h between these two teams a couple of weeks ago was exactly decided in the TO battle, because the Colts played a free game, while KC committed a season high 4 TO's that prevented them to control the clock (only 21:40 vs. 38:20 from IND) and naturally they lost the game.
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After some bizarre and humiliating losses against inferior level teams, the Colts played better down the stretch and it was their defense the main catalyst for such improved play as they have allowed only 3, 7 and 10 pts L3 games.
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KC defense had a natural letdown in the last weeks as their competition got stronger, but I it's impossible to ignore the fact that two of their best defensive players Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got injured. The good news is that both will play today and so, we can expect a KC improved defense on the field that had basically two weeks to prepare for today's game.
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With two offenses focused in not committing TO's and manage the game & two improved defenses, I feel that we are dealing w/ an inflated totals line and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.
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Arkansas -30FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sometimes the lines maker simply cannot make a number high enough. That's the case here as the Roadrunners are about to get crushed. Ranked near the bottom on Division 1 basketball this team has only beaten the likes of Texas A&M Community College, Huston-Tillotson, Texas-Pan American and Cameron. The Roadrunners are allowing over 80 points per game against a very questionable schedule.
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Arkansas has already shown the ability to annihilate the opposition. Wins by 34, 46, 29, 46 and 41 points. The only reason this wasn't included in our Saturday paid package is that Texas A&M is on the schedule in four days. The Razorbacks average just shy of 86 points per game. They could put up 120 if Arkansas doesn't go deep on the bench.
Wunderdog
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Pick: Kansas City +1
I think the wrong team is favored here. The way the line has moved, it seems some agree. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that ran the table on arguably the best teams in the NFL early in the season. Early on, the Colts beat Seattle, San Franciscoand Denver over the course of a five week span. But, let's not forget that they also lost to Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. And, those big wins were with Reggie Wayne in the lineup. While the Colts have won their last three games, this team is not built for the playoffs. They don't run the ball well and without Reggie Wayne, this offense isn't the same. 26.7 After Wayne went down, this offense lost 4 points per game. Last year Indy went 11-5 despite being outgained by opponents on the season. That caught up with them as soon as the playoffs started as they lost their opening playoff game 24-7. Kansas City won just two games a year ago. This season they put their first nine in the win column, but finished just 2-5 and looks now to be a fading team. But, this team is the better team on the field today. Their offense is better and their defense is better and they have the better coach. And, they are healthy and rested with many starters taking last Sunday off. The big difference here is Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs' running attack. Teams that can run the ball well are generally good bets in the playoffs, and Kansas City generates 4.66 yards per carry. Remember, Charles went for 106 yards and a TD on just 16 carries in the loss to Indianapolis earlier this season. And because the Chiefs were behind, he did not get utilized as much as he will in this one. But the Chiefs lost to Indianapolis just a few weeks ago you say? KC didn't have Justin Houston for that game. He is an elite pass rusher and hasn't played since week 12, so the Chiefs will instantly become better defensively. Revenging playoff teams are good bets. But this game is on the road you say? The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road this season and Andy Reid teams are 78-49 ATS on the road including 42-23 ATS as a road underdog. Oh yeah - Reid-led teams are also 27-10 ATS on the road revenging a loss. Take Kansas City.
Jeff Scott
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City/Indianapolis Over 46: These teams met just 2 weeks ago and neither team seemed to how too much on off for fear of meeting in the playoffs and just 30 points were scored in that game. That is now how these teams really played down the stretch. The Chiefs really opened up their offense down the stretch and their defense struggled as 5 of their last 6 games all put up 51 points or more, with the only game that didn't being that Indy game. The Colts defense has been solid down the stretch, but their last 3 games vs vs Jacksonville, and Houston, plus that KC game where the Chiefs just shut it down after their first score. The Chiefs defense was very good during their 9-0 start, but in their last 7 games they have allowed 27.1 ppg, while their offense has exploded down the stretch, putting up 23 or more in 7 of their last 9 games, while averaging a healthy 33 ppg in their last 6 games. The Colts offense has been solid this year and they average 24.9 ppg at home, and they have averaged 25.6 ppg in their last 5 games overall. This game will have no weather factors as they are playing indoors and that will help the offenses put up enough points vs these struggling defenses to get the Over here. I expect a 27-24 type final.
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Kansas City/Indianapolis Over 46FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Don’t be fooled by the game between these two teams in the regular season, played just two weeks ago. Indy prevailed 23-7 as a 7-point underdog, but as we pointed out here on the Free Pick page on that day when we released the “under,” both teams knew it was more than likely they would be squaring off in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs and neither team wanted to show anything on offense. The result was a vanilla game plan from both teams and low scoring game. Look for the offenses to open it up a bit today. In fact, KC has basically tanked the last weeks, playing mostly back-ups last week against San Diego, but in the four games prior to that it averaged 41 points per game. KC averages 30 points per game on the road and Indy has put up an average of 25 ppg at home this year. Look for both teams to hit right around their average as this one sails over the total.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Houston/Vanderbilt Under 53: Vanderbilt is not a high octane offense and they have dealt with injuries down the stretch and thus have really struggled on offense scoring just 19.7 ppg in their last 3 games. The 3 defenses they faced in those three games? Wake Forest, Kentucky and Tennessee. Not very good defenses for sure. Now they get to face a defense that played very well this year, especially down the stretch, where they allowed just 16.7 ppg in their last 6 games. That stretch included allowing zero points to SMU, 20 to Louisville and 19 to UCF, which are all high powered offenses. Overall this Houston defense is bend but don't break as they are 85th in yards allowed (420 ypg), but 12th in points allowed (20.2 ppg). The Vandy defense has really been solid overall this year, allowing just 352.3 ypg and 24.7 ppg, while ranking 21st in the nation vs the pass (204.3 ypg), but even more impressive has been their last 3 games of the year, where they have allowed just 255 ypg overall, 109.3 ypg through the air and 12.3 ppg. Now when people think of Houston they think offense, but this team was really stymied down the stretch, averaging just 279.3 ypg and 21.3 ppg in their final 3 games. The defenses have had extra prep time and with the long layoff that should lead to rust on offense. Both defenses have been very good this year, while the offenses have slumped of late and that should lead to a game in the low 40's at best.
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Drake at BradleyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Drake -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Bradley comes into this contest as one of the worst money burners in college hoops thus far with a 1-9-1 ATS mark. They have dropped seven straight games SU and ATS as they continue to struggle to put the ball in the basket (36.5% from the field in those seven losses). Head coach Geno Ford went so far as to cancel on court practice yesterday because he was “tired of looking at guys make shots in practice that miss them in games.”
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Bradley may have hit rock bottom in their last game, a conference opening 80-46 loss at Northern Iowa. They now face a Drake team that has gotten off to a nice 10-3 start and has covered in 8 of its 11 lined games. Drake lost guard Gary Ricks Jr., (12.3 ppg) to a broken foot on December 7 but has rallied to go 4-1 SU without him. They are coming off their best game of the year; a 94-66 trouncing of Evansville at home. The Bulldogs have been able to make shots, as they hit 40.5% from the three-point line and 45.5% overall. Drake has also shown that it can win on the road with three true road wins and two more on neutral courts. They are 6-1 ATS in games away from home and have quality losses at Iowa and St. Mary’s.
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Bradley has no quality wins and several bad losses to teams much worse than Drake. No reason to stop fading the Braves until they can show they are able to turn it around on the offensive end.
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Oklahoma State at Kansas StateSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State is 12-1 and ranked but it hasn't been a very good week for the Cowboys. Their big man in the paint tore his achilles and the back point guard was suspended after a problem with the law. Bruce Weber has righted the ship in Manhattan winning eight straight wins (including over Gonzaga) after a 2-3 start. The Wildcats pay great perimeter defense holding opponent to 26% from beyond the arc. Marcus Smart is a great player for Okie State but he can't do it all by himself. K State improves series run to 5-1 with a straight up home win here.
Larry Ness
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San Diego at BYU
Prediction: BYU
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BYU returns home to the friendly confines of the Marriott Center after four straight road games, all of which resulted in losses. BYU was beaten badly at Utah on Dec 14 and then a week later (Dec 21), lost a great opportunity to hand the Ducks their first loss of the season, but fell in OT, 100-96. That loss seemed to deflate the Cougars more than just a little, as they lost at Loyola-Marymount and Pepperdine (each time as a road favorite), to open the WCC season at 0-2.
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Dave Rose is in his 9th season at Provo and the Cougars, who opened 8-3, now sit at 8-7. The loss inside of Brandon Davies (17.7-8.0) has been a tough blow. Two big freshman had high expectations but only the 6-10 Mika has met those expectations, averaging 13.9 & 6.6. The 6-9 Worthington has been useless. That said, 6-11 junior Nate Austin has been capable, averaging 4.2 & 8.2. A huge addition to this year's team has been 6-6 swingman Kyle Collingsworth, who returned from a two-year mission. He averaged 5.8-5.1 as a freshman when he made 27 starts. He?s been excellent so far for BYU, averaging 13.1-8.3-5.3.
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BYU's backcourt is terrific, led by Haws and Carlino. Haws averaged 29.5 & 10.5 in BYU?s 1st two wins, then missed the next two with a an abdominal strain. He hasn?t missed a game since and leads the team in scoring at 22.0 PPG (also 5.1 RPG). Carlino averaged 18.0 PPG with 8.0 APG in four NIT games last year, and has opened this season averaging 15.1-4.9-4.5. Three other guards are making contributions as well, in Bartley (7.0), Halford (6.9) and Winder (5.9).
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This game is "gut check time," as BYU is in desperate need of a victory and playing its first home game since December 11th. San Diego has also opened up 0-2 in the WCC, as it also lost at Pepperdine and Loyola-Marymount. San Diego owns a very nice guard trio in Dee (18.9), Sanadze (12.6) and Anderson (10.5-4.1-6.6) but the 6-11 Kramer (11.2-7.3) is the lone big man of note.
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The Toreros rank last in the conference in scoring offense (69.9 PPG) and offensive efficiency, but are first in the league in scoring defense (62.0 PPG). The trouble for San Diego here is, the Toreros will need to match the high-scoring Cougars, who should be in a very determined an angry mood, coming off FOUR straight losses, playing at home for the first time in almost a month and looking to avenge a 72-69 OT loss to San Diego in last year's WCC tourney.
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San Diego is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Lay the points.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -4½
For the same reasons I took the Hawks last night against the Warriors, I'm backing the Bulls at home as a small favorite. Atlanta laid it all on the line against Golden State at home on Friday and I just don't see them coming out with the intensity needed in a back-to-back set to cover on the road against Chicago. The Bulls have won 4 of 6 overall and are a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Atlanta is just 6-10 on the road this season and have had little success in recent visits to the United Center. Chicago has 24 of the last 37 meetings overall and each of the last three home games vs the Hawks over the last three seasons. Adding to this is the fact that Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on Saturday and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on 0 days of rest.
John Wilson
Houston vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Houston +2½
Vanderbilt is still a favorite with the oddsmaker despite losing QB Austyn Carta-Samuels, leaving them with Patton Robinette, a player with a 10% lower completion percentage who gets sacked twice as often and intercepted at a higher rate. We had a tight race going in without even considering the QB change, and that pretty much clinches it for us.
Neither offense seems like it has its shit together right now. Neither team can run the ball well, and the defenses are good against the pass. But Vanderbilt has quarterback issues, and that probably docks them about a touchdown at least.
The yardage estimate started with Vandy ahead by 3 but in the end they were down by 7. And that has no adjustment for missing a senior quarterback and replacing him with a freshman. Our power rating doesn't call it an upset, but I guess it counts; we take Houston to win.
Jeff Alexander
LA Clippers +8
Oddsmakers have overcompensated for the loss of Chris Paul with this line. Darren Collison is a solid replacement, and I expect the Clippers to rally here in the wake of Paul's injury. San Antonio has a nice record but has come up short repeatedly against top competition. Consider that it is 0-9 ATS this season versus team that outscore the opposition by 3.0 points per game or more. It has lost these games by an average of 6.7 points. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
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Kansas City -102 over INDIANAPOLISSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It would not be difficult at all to make a case for the Colts. They were the hotter team down the stretch with three straight wins, all by 16 points or more. One of those victories occurred in Kansas City by a score of 23-7. Furthermore, the propensity for most bettors in a close matchup is to side with the better QB and in that regard Andrew Luck is perceived to be much better than Alex Smith. Additionally, the home team has more appeal but we have our concerns. One of our concerns is that the line has been coming down when all the data shows that Indy is taking most of the money. That’s a huge red flag. Another concern for Colts backers should be that this year’s edition won a lot of games they had no business winning. In many of their wins, Indianapolis pulled a rabbit out of their hats after being dominated in time of possession and total yards.
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Looking back at the Chiefs loss to Indianapolis shows that the Chiefs ran through the Colts defense on the opening drive and subsequently pulled up the reins. At that point, Kansas City knew they were pretty much locked into the #5 seed and there would be a good chance they would be seeing the Colts again. K.C. committed three crucial turnovers in that game and one of them was a fumble by backup RB Knile Davis. That won’t happen here. In fact, we’re suggesting that the Chiefs sort of sat back in the final two weeks of the season because Andy Reid did not want to show his best hand. Alex Smith matched everything that Andrew Luck accomplished this season in terms of yardage and accuracy and the Chiefs defense is far better than anything the Colts offer. The Colts are not as good as they currently seem and Andy Reid knows exactly how to prepare for a team that is weaker than his.
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New Orleans +138 over PHILADELPHIASERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Are the Eagles capable of blowing out the Saints? No. Are the Saints capable of blowing out the Eagles? Indeed they are and it’s for that reason among others that we are taking the Saints and the value here. The only issue here of course is that New Orleans is not known for its ability to thrive on the road in cold weather but that doesn’t concern us one bit. You might be influenced by all that you read or hear regarding that but don’t buy it. It’s been proven over and over, especially this season that talent prevails over the elements and Drew Brees is at the top of his game.
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Brees concluding yet another great year as an elite quarterback and he even added rushing scores to his repertoire with two over the final three games. What is even more powerful is that the offense enters the post season with a healthy crew. Brees passed for 5162 yards and 39 touchdowns and he also posted four or more touchdowns in six different games. Brees and the rest of that potent offense will now face the worst defense of all playoff teams and one of the worst overall in the entire league. Somebody from the NFC East had to qualify for the playoffs and in this case it was the Eagles but rarely has a team that has given up as many points and yards as Philadelphia did this season qualified for the playoffs. The Eagles secondary is weakest in the NFL that ranks 32 out of 32 teams. The cold weather isn’t going to help them.
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The Eagles salvaged their season by winning seven of their last eight games with the Chip Kelly offense coming into better focus as the season progressed. The only odd part of them being here is that they are one of the very rare teams that struggle much more at home than on the road. Nick Foles did not really get going until week six but he's far exceeded all expectations and sent Michael Vick to the bench. However, Foles thrived on the road against weak defenses. When the defensive efforts were stronger, Foles was right around the 200 passing yards mark and this is without question the best defense he will have faced the entire year. Philadelphia was the beneficiary of the NFL”s weakest schedule in the second half that opened with a game in Oakland followed by games against Green Bay (-Aaron Rodgers), Washington, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas. None of those teams are in the playoffs and all of them with the exception of Arizona played garbage defense. Philadelphia is getting way too much credit here because of their hot finish but it’s all smoke and mirrors. The Saints played a more difficult schedule than the Eagles, they have the better QB and the better defense and they’re getting points. We’re not going to need the points.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is in college hoops, as I like the Duke Blue Devils to crash the Catholic party in South Bend, and score the huge win over Notre Dame.
The Devils have begun the season impressive as usual, and plenty primed for the annual rigors of playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke rolls into final non-conference game before opening up with Georgia Tech having won five straight. And in all five wins, Duke has won by double digits, and has seemingly gotten better with each victory. The Devils beat Michigan by 10 on Dec. 3, and just knocked off Elon by 38 points on New Year's Eve.
Duke's only two losses this season have come at the hands of Kansas and Arizona. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has been inconsistent and hasn't been able to string together a pair off solid wins since the beginning of December. The Irish have alternated wins and losses since Dec. 9, when they got past Bryant. Along the way, the Catholics lost to North Dakota State, and barely got past Canisius.
Duke will prove to be too much in this one, and steals the road win at South Bend.
1♦ DUKE
Jeff Benton
Don't mind laying a few points with Florida State at home against Virginia.
Both team sporting similar records, but Virginia has not shown that they can step up and win on the road just yet, as Tony Bennett's team has lost both of their true road games this season both straight up and against the spread, and there last win in Tallahassee comes back in 2007.
Florida State has won all 5 of their home games this year, and they are 8-2 against the spread their last 10 lined games played at the Tucker Center.
The Sems are on an 8-1 straight up series run versus their conference rival, and they have covered in 5 of the last 7 series showdowns as well.
The Cavs have lost 3 of their last 5 coming into this one, while the Sems are riding a nice 4 game win streak, including a solid win and cover over a tough Massachusetts team.
Stick with the hot team here and play Florida State to hold serve at home against the poor-traveling Wahoos.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE