Rob Vinciletti
California vs. USC
Play: California
The Bears have some amazing numbers here in this one. They are 15-0 vs teams under .500 and 10-1 vs teams who score 65 or less points per game. In games off a conference loss they have covered 10 of the last 15 and are 3-0 with 1 or less day of rest, as well as 15-5 on Saturday. They do have 2-3 players that are questionable for this one, so we will revisit this one when their status is determined. Last season they won here 75-49. USC has lost 6 of 9 vs team over .500 and are 11-25 ats in conference play. As a home favorite of 3 or less they have lost 3 of 4. They are 1-3 with 1 or less day of rest and 7-21 when the total is 120 to 130. The come in off a home dog win over Stanford in overtime and could be flat here. Looking at the RPI Numbers USC is ranked 138 and California is ranked 72. Look for California to win this one.
Art Aronson
Sacramento vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Under 196
Take a look at the UNDER between the Brooklyn Nets and the Sacramento Kings.
This is going to be tough for both teams as they played spirited games last night and we are getting a pretty decent line to work with.
The Kings in the midst of an Eastern road trip will have to be feeling it on the legs just a little bit here while the Nets played overtime on the road last night.
Five of eight games the Nets have played in on the backend of a back-to–back situation has fallen UNDER the betting total. In the same situation the Kings have seen the UNDER cash in three of five.
It took a Joe Johnson last second shot for the Nets finally take the lead for good in the double overtime game against the pesky Washington Wizards last night. The Nets had to come from behind the entire game if you watched it (like I did). It wouldn’t be altogether surprising if this game felt like a road game for the Nets too after having its starters play so much OT.
The Nets home games this year have averaged 192.4 points. The team has been playing much better since Avery has been fired. The Nets are 4-1 since.
Sacramento road games have averaged 194.4. This number doesn’t take into account the b2b situation. The Kings have won four its last five games as well and are likely to show some pride in this game.
Four of five games have seen the UNDER cash in after the Nets have allowed 105 points or more in.
The last game between these two teams in Sacramento saw a 99-90 game with the UNDER total cashing in. Consider the UNDER here as well!
Bryan Power
Philadelphia vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
I don't see this one staying competitive for long as an angry Spurs team, off a 100-83 loss to the Knicks Thursday night, will be eager to atone for that defeat. They draw a perfect opponent in Philadelphia, who has dropped 9 of its last 12, including at Phoenix Wednesday and then a blowout loss at Oklahoma City last night.
This is the 76ers' final game of an eight-game trip out West that stretches back before Christmas. Somehow, they beat both Memphis and the Lakers. But they've lost to everyone else and offensively, they remain punchless. Only a handful of teams in the league average fewer points per game than does Philadelphia (93.2). They have lost 14 of their last 15 visits to San Antonio.
The Spurs have lost back to back games twice since the start of December. But in both cases, each game was on the road. Here at home, San Antonio is 14-2 straight up and they are also 12-3 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. Getting to play an unrested Sixers team that had to play another top Western Conference opponent last night is a huge plus.
Jesse Schule
New Orleans vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas
Last night's FREE play was on the L.A. Clippers, and we cashed in another winning ticket, making it 5 IN A ROW! Well, how about just for kicks, WE GO FOR SIX? The Mavs lost in Miami their last time out, but they gave the defending champs a run for their money, forcing overtime before falling 119-109.
It was Dirk Nowitski's best game since coming back from injury, he scored a season high 19 points, logging 29 minutes (also a season high). The Mavs return home looking to put an end to a three game losing streak at American Airlines Center. They will take on the New Orleans Hornets, who have lost six straight versus the Mavs in Dallas.
The Hornets have really struggled on the road this year, with a record of 4-11 away from New Orleans. They are coming off a loss to the Rockets in Houston on Wednesday, losing by a score of 104-92. With Eric Gordon out of the lineup, Coach Williams was forced to replace him with rookie guard Austin Rivers. Rivers scored just four points, and hit one of six from the free throw line. "We have some young guys who have never been in this position before and they're overwhelmed," Williams said. "I wish the season started today because we'd be in a lot better shape, record-wise. Guys are frustrated, but I see tons of growth and this is going to help us going forward."
New Orleans has failed to cover in any of their last four games overall, and they have also failed to cover in their last four trips to Dallas. With Dirk back, and looking more like himself, this should be a mismatch, and an easy win and cover for Dallas.
Bruce Marshall
Marist vs. Canisius
Pick: Canisius
After an inexplicable flat effort on Thursday night vs. Fairfield, expect a much-improved Canisus side to bounce back with a more-characteristic performance tonight in Buffalo against visiting Marist The Golden Griffs already beat the Red Foxes by 12 at Poughkeepsie in December, a game that wasn't even that close and featured a 47-29 rebound edge for Canisius. Griff G Harold "The Mayor" Washington pumped in 25 points that night, and Marist has been routinely routed away from home, losing its last five on the road by 17.6 ppg. Marist's perimeter oriented attack rarely gets points in the paint, and the Red Foxes are always prone to lose touch since their main three-point shooters Devin Price (29% triples) and Isaiah Morton (28.8% beyond the arc) both shoot under 30% from tripleville. Marist is also routinely pounded on the glass as was the case the first meeting vs. the Golden Griffs), outrebounded by almost 8 caroms pg, one of the country's worst such marks (ranking 331st).
David Chan
New York vs. Orlando
Pick: Orlando
The Knicks are 22-10 SU and 16-15-1 ATS; after back to back losses, they bounced back with a 100-83 win over the Spurs on the 3rd as 1 point favorites. Tyson Chandler had 10 points and 14 boards. Marcus Camby had his first start of the year, grabbing six boards.
Note though that New York is in fact just 1-4 ATS its last five on the road.
Orlando is 12-20 SU and 16-15-1 ATS; it's coming off seven straight losses, including a 96-94 setback to Chicago as a 3 point underdog on the 2nd.
You'll want to keep your eyes on 7 footer Nikola Vucevic who has 14 double doubles and who has 41 points and 41 rebounds over his last two games.
The Magic have been on the cusp, losing five times by four points or fewer during the slide.
Veteran Jameer Nelson had 32 points vs. the Bulls.
These teams played on November 13th, and the Knicks won 99-89, despite being outrebounded 42-31.
Note though that Orlando is in fact 14-6 SU its last 20 in this series.
After their big win over the Spurs, I believe the visitors come in a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just enough for the desperate home side to sneak through; consider a second look at the Magic in this one!
Bryan Leonard
Utah +18.5
Wildcats are likely to overlook the Utes here after winning 5 of the last 6 meetings including a sweep of the season series a year ago. This is a major sandwich game for Arizona after beating Miami Florida and San Diego State before the very fortunate win over Colorado on Thursday. They held off the Aztecs by a single point and then survived the Buffaloes with a very controversial call. The Wildcats play three straight on the road after this one including a very tough trip to visit Oregon. Arizona hasn't been a very good big favorite in this building and the Utes could very well keep this one close. With narrow defeats the last two times on the road against BYU and Arizona State Utah won't be intimidated.
King Creole
Portland +7.5
For the SECOND night in a row, our canines are right back ON the Blazers plus the points as they travel to division rival Minnesota. Last night, it was an OUTRIGHT win for us against the Grizzlies. And Portland will be taking on a beat-up T'Wolves team that might not have Kevin Love (questionable with hand injury) AND Ricky Rubio (out last 3 gms w/ back injury). Whether it's full strength or not, the POINTS are the play. This is a series that Portland dominates anyhow. They've gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games versus the T'Wolves, and that includes 11-2 ATS playing IN Minnesota.
This situation that applies tonight has already lost the cash 90% of the times so far THIS season. Minnesota last played on Thursday while Portland played LAST night (and got the cash for us vs the Grizz).
1-9-1 ATS this season: All DIVISION home favorites of < 10 points (Min) in a '1/0' REST situation.
Minnesota went into the Mile High City (Denver) on Thursday night... and SHOCKED the Nuggets (winning by 4 as dogs of +8 pts).
5-16 ATS since 2007: All NBA favorites playing off a ROAD dog win against the Denver Nuggets (Min). These teams have gone 2-10 ATS vs any opp off a SU win (like PORT)... and 0-4 ATS in division play.
Speaking of DIVISION play, this is a division (Northwest) in which teams playing with NO REST do very well as of late.
11-1 ATS last 3 years: All NORTHWEST division road underdogs of 12 < pts (PORTLAND) versus any division opponent off a SU win (Min).
1-9 ATS since 2007: All NORTHWEST division home favorites playing off a double-digit ATS win (Min covered by +12 pts vs Den on Thur)... versus any division opponent (PORTLAND).
PORTLAND has gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in the last 12 months n the road with NO REST versus any conference opponent off a SU win (Min).
MINNESOTA has gone 11-28 ATS since 2010 at home versus any UNRESTED opponent (PORT). That includes 5-16 ATS of that opp is off a SU win... and 1-10 ATS as home FAVORITES.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Baylor/ Texas Over 131.5: The Over is 11-4 in Baylor's last 15 overall and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these teams. Baylor will push tempo and they come in averaging 77.8 ppg on 48.8% shooting at home this year. The Texas defense has been solid overall, allowing 55.9 ppg, but they have struggled on the road, where they allow 67 ppg on 44.9% shooting. The Baylor defense has been decent this year, but have struggled of late as they come in allowing 71.4 ppg in their last 5 games. On offense Texas has really missed Kabongo, but they seem to be getting better as they have averaged 67.2 ppg in their last 5 games and really should have plenty of scoring chances vs a weak Baylor defensive squad. The last 5 Baylor games have averaged 150.2 ppg, while the last 10 in the series has averaged 144.4 ppg. This one should also hit at least 140.
2 UNIT PLAY
NOTRE DAME -10 over Seton Hall: I know that the Irish have a big game on deck vs Cincinnati, but I feel that Brey will have his team focused. The Irish have won 10 in a row and all have been by at least 10 points. Not all of the games have been cupcakes as their win streak has included wins over Kentucky, Purdue, George Washington and BYU. Seton Hall is off to a nice start, but this is not a team they have fared well vs as the Irish as Notre Dame has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, with the last 3 and 6 of the last 7 wins in the series coming by DD. THis is not a good spot for the Hall as Notre Dame wins by at least 15.
More Later
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Green Bay Over 45.5: The Over is 4-1 the last 5 in the series, while 7 of the last 9 between these teams have put up at least 50 points. Rodgers loves facing this team as he has thrown for 313 ypg with 23 TD's and just 4 INT's the last 4 seasons vs the Vikes. His WR corps is healthy once again and that should help him put up big numbers in this on vs the Vikes #24 pass defense. The Vikes will look to pound away with Petersen, but still he has a 7.4 ypc average vs the Pack this year and he has run for 6.5 ypc on the road this year. Some big plays from the run game will also set up big plays for Ponder, which should lead to Minnesota putting up their fair share of points in this one. Minnesota averages 23.7 ppg on the road, while the Packers average 27 ppg at home and I see this one hitting at least 50 points as well.
HOUSTON -4.5 over Cincinnati: I know about the fact that these teams are headed in opposite directions as the season winded down, but I feel that the Texans will come out with their "A" game in this one. The Bengals have been solid on defense down the stretch, allowing just 12.8 ppg but 5 of those games were vs struggling offenses KC, Oakland, San Diego, Philly and Dallas. I feel that Cincy is a bit overrated thanks to their weak schedule down the stretch. The Texans have not done well at all vs tough completion down the stretch, but this is a home playoff game vs a team that may be a bit overconfident here and I expect them to get the job done. Should be close for about 3 quarters, but then the Texans will come up with nough big plays on both sides of the ball to pull away late.
SPORTS WAGERS
Mississippi -3½ over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh played in this bowl game last season and got whacked by SMU by 22 points. The Panthers have not performed well in bowl games and if Ole Miss shows up here, this one could be another suffered blowout. Both these teams finished the year 6-6 but equals they are not. Pittsburgh’s losses came against Youngstown State, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame and Connecticut. Four of those losses can be excused but losses to UConn and Youngstown State cannot. The Rebels six losses came against then #14 Texas, then #1 Alabama, Texas A&M by just three, #6 Georgia, Vandy by a point and #7 LSU by six.
Mississippi is as stoked about a date in the Magic City as a team can get and the Rebels have one edge that figures to prove decisive. Pitt allows sacks and tackles for loss in bunches and the Rebels are among the nation's best in those departments. The inability of this Panthers offensive line to handle the Ole Miss defensive front will have a big impact on the outcome. After playing some of the best teams in the country and not looking out of place in most, the Rebels defense will enjoy the slower pace here much better and could excel. The offense will put up points to seal the deal.
SPORTS WAGERS
Delaware -2½ over OLD DOMINION
We’re usually not in favor of spotting small road points in college basketball but will make a rare exception here in a game that is not going to attract a lot of attention. This is one we can squeeze under the radar. The Monarchs are pure and simple a really bad basketball team. They come in with two wins in 14 games against Morgan State and Virginia, the latter by a bucket. ODU has lost to bad teams and have been whacked by better ones.
Meanwhile, Delaware has played the 60th toughest schedule in the country, facing clubs that are a combined 87-64. Among those are K-State, Pitt, Duke and Temple. Unlike ODU, which has started conference play 0-2, the Blue Hens come in with a fresh slate, not having played a single conference game yet. The Colonial is the weakest it’s been in years and ODU is the weakest of the weak. With a chance to open conference play 1-0, one figures the Blue Hens to be sky high for this one while the same can’t be said for the Monarchs.
Georgetown +3½ over MARQUETTE
The Golden Eagles come in with a 10-3 record. There are suggestions that Marquette could be in the top-25 sometime in the near future but after seeing them play numerous times, we’re not buying that. Marquette is 0-2 against the RPI’s top 50 and its strength of schedule ranks 130th in the nation. When they played a top outfit in Florida, the Golden Eagles looked like a high school team in a 33-point loss. Marquette has won 17 straight at home but that streak is in serious jeopardy here.
The Hoyas have one loss this year in OT to then #1 Indiana. They’ve reeled off seven in a row and play a suffocating defense that should give the careless Golden Eagles fits all day long. Georgetown does not score a lot of points but they’re an efficient club that makes the most of their possessions. Despite being ranked 15th in the country, Georgetown still has plenty of naysayers and as a result, they play with a chip on its shoulders. This is a chance for them to quiet their critics and we trust they’ll do just that. Marquette is not that good.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -6 over New Orleans
Losers in six of its past seven games, Dallas is hungry for wins and should be in a strong position here to put this intruder away. A close look reveals that the schedule maker did the Mavs no favors. Dallas is coming off the toughest seven-game stretch that any team has or will have to play this year. It started on Dec 20 with a game against Miami, followed by contests against Memphis, San Antonio, OKC, Denver, San Antonio again, Washington and finally Miami again. You’ll notice the one soft spot in Washington in which the Mavs won by nine. Now the Mavs are undervalued because of its recent string of losses and overall record of 13-20.
The Hornets play tough but they’re coming off a 12-point loss in Houston in a game they deserved better in (they were down by a point with three minutes to go). They have the Spurs on deck at home on Monday and likely can’t wait to return, as that game will end a difficult stretch of nine road games in New Orleans’ past 13. Mavs ascension up the standings and back into the playoff race must begin here.
ORLANDO +6½ over New York
In the first of two featured NBA games this past Thursday, the Knicks weren’t supposed to do what they did to the Spurs. Struggling and showing signs of weakness, the Knicks responded with one of their best games of the season with a 17-point win and holding San Antonio to just 83 points. Point proven. Now we catch the Knicks in a more difficult spot after that statement game. With the Celtics on deck at MSG on Monday and the Magic having lost seven straight, this is exactly the type of game the Knicks could overlook.
Outside of a blowout loss against Toronto, the Magic’s seven game losing streak could easily be five wins. They lost by their last two games by just two points to both the Bulls and Heat and lost three others by a combined 10 points over that span. The Magic have shot 48% and won the rebounding battle in five of those seven losses. The results aren’t there but the effort and talent level is much better than Orlando is given credit for. This is a strong scheduling spot to take advantage of that.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +7
The Kings and Nets both played last night but I give the edge to the Kings catching big points as they will be the fresher side. Sacramento had an easy win against Toronto in a game where only one King played more than 33 minutes. Brooklyn, meanwhile, was involved in a double-OT contest versus Washington and saw five players log more than 36 minutes. Three logged more than 43 minutes. The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Indiana Pacers -4
Both the Pacers and Bucks got taken behind the woodshed last night, but Indiana has the advantage here as it is 11-3 at home on the season and 27-9 at home versus the Bucks since 1996. Milwaukee has won the season's first two meetings but both were in Milwaukee and both came following at least a day of rest. The Bucks are a miserable 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest while the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. Take the Pacers.