Jack Jones
Houston Texans -4.5
The Houston Texans have been one of the best teams in the league all season. Sure, they have struggled of late, but that's why this line is lower than it should be. Houston has been at least a 4-point favorite in every home game this season. It is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points per game at home this year.
Houston did not even have Matt Schaub last season when it beat Cincinnati 31-10 in the opening round of the playoffs. It didn’t need him too much as it rushed for 188 yards on offense, while the defense forced Andy Dalton into three interceptions. With Schaub healthy this time around, the Texans have an excellent chance of covering this small spread and advancing to the second round.
Cincinnati hasn’t had many playoff opportunities in its history. It hasn’t taken advantage of its opportunities, either. This will be just the Bengals’ fourth trip to the playoffs dating back to 1991, and they have lost all three of their previous appearances all by double-digits. Cincinnati’s last playoff win came in 1990. I don't believe Andy Dalton is quite ready to win a big road game in the playoffs just yet.
The Bengals are 19-38 ATS in their last 57 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game. Cincinnati is 5-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Houston is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 following two or more consecutive losses. Gary Kubiak is 14-3 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of Houston. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bengals. Bet the Texans Saturday.
Black Widow
Dallas Mavericks -5.5
With Dirk Nowitzki back and healthy, the Dallas Mavericks are about to go on a run. They won at Washington 103-94 before taking the defending champion Miami Heat to overtime on Wednesday. They have had two days' rest since and will be ready to go tonight as they get back in the win column against the lowly New Orleans Hornets (7-25). New Orleans has lost 14 of its last 16 games as this is yet another rebuilding year for the Hornets. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team is 17-5-2 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take Dallas and lay the points.
Dennis Macklin
Notre Dame -10
Both of these Big East teams have played a select hand=picked group of tomato cans. The Hall is 12-2 vs the No.329th ranked schedule, the Irish are 12-1 vs the No.312th ranked schedule. That's where most of the similarity ends as the Notre Dame is 3-1 vs the Top 100 while the Pony Pirates are just 1-1 owning a one-point win over Stony Brook. Notre Dame is 9-1 over the last 10 in the series with the last three wins all coming by 12+ points. Not overly enamored with the line but this is one of the toughest home venues in college basketball and the Irish are worth a look.
Dave Cokin
Middle Tennessee State at South Alabama
Pick: Middle Tennessee State
One of my favorite angles in college basketball is the big bounce. Simple enough. Look for a team off an uncharacteristically bad shooting performance of they're up against a team that had a lights out effort last game. Middle Tennessee was 19/59 in the OT loss at Arkansas State on Thursday. South Alabama slipped past UL-Monroe that same evening thanks to nailing a blazing hot 26/44 from the field. I'll look for the bounce here and I'll back Middle Tennessee State to get the win and cover against the Jaguars.
Nelly
St. John's + over Cincinnati
Cincinnati owns a glowing 13-1 record but the Bearcats have not played a great schedule. Wins over Iowa State, Oregon, and Alabama warrant minor notice from early in the season but they all were fairly tight games. Cincinnati has also gone through a very difficult recent stretch of games, facing rival Xavier, struggling vs. Wright State, losing at home to New Mexico, and winning at Pittsburgh all in the last two weeks. This could be a bit of a flat spot hosting a talent-rich St. John's team. The Red Storm is youthful but at 8-5 this team can compete. St. John's has a few suspect losses but also has played quality teams, losing to Murray State, Baylor, and recently to Villanova in overtime on Wednesday. The road team has won outright in each of the last four meetings between these schools and this is a huge spread for Cincinnati to face knowing that a huge national game with Notre Dame is on deck Monday.
Harry Bondi
MISSISSIPPI (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
This is a very average Pitt team that is also an unmotivated group, considering the players are making their third-straight trip to Birmingham for the Compass Bowl. That's hardly a reward for a team that qualified for the postseason. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is sky-high to be here. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze led an amazing turnaround for the Rebels this year. Five of the Rebels' six losses came to Top-25 teams, and three came in games they led in the fourth quarter, including down-to-the-wire finishes against Top-10 teams Texas A&M and LSU. The result has the Ole Miss fan base pumped up for this game. In fact, the school went through the initial allotment of 10,000 tickets so quickly, it had to go back to the bowl for more, and even took nearly half of Pittsburgh's allotment of seats. We wrote in our College Bowl Preview that a huge part of handicapping bowl games is motivation and we clearly have the more motivated team here today. Lay the short number.
Charlie Sports
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic
The (22-10) New York Knicks of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division will take on the (12-20) Orlando Magic of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2013 NBA action. The Knicks won the first meeting between the teams 99-89 back in November and have covered 4 of the last 5 vs. Orlando Against The Spread. The Knicks are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 overall while Orlando is 4-1 ATS their last 7 at home. Orlando gets the home cover.
Scott Delaney
On the heels of last night's free pick winner on the Cleveland Cavaliers, I'm looking at Georgetown against Marquette today, as I aim to improve my 64-40-2 comp-play run.
I understand Marquette is a formidable conference foe that has won three straight including an overtime win over Connecticut, but the 15th-ranked Hoyas have been thriving of late, and open Big East play with a 10-1 mark after preseason play. The also arrive in Milwaukee after two weeks rest, and I think will be revved up for their conference-opener.
Georgetown, which was picked to finish fifth in the preseason coaches' poll, extended its win streak to seven games with a 65-48 blowout of American back on Dec. 22.
The Hoyas have won three of their last four meetings with the Golden Eagles, who have won the last three games at Bradley Center. And admittedly, their Princeton offense can be worrisome at times, especially when you see they tallied 37 points against Tennessee and 46 against Towson, albeit both were wins.
But I'm not worried about those things, as I see Georgetown is back at its defensive ways.
The Hoyas have limited opponents to less than 60 points in eight of their 11 games, while their opponents are averaging a bleak 54.7 points per game, which ranks second in the conference and 9th nationally. And those are promising numbers, as it's the lowest opponent scoring average during coach John Thompson III's tenure at GU.
Let's take a shot here with the road pup.
4♦ GEORGETOWN
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the small number on the road against Illinois.
What we have here is the best conference in college basketball and two of the top six teams from that conference hooking up for a huge early-season division matchup.
Illinois is off to a hotter start than many of us thought, based partially on a somewhat soft schedule AND the fact they are scoring better than we thought.
What's going to hurt the Illini today is the lack of a ton of experience and the fact they don't play defense.
If you look at Ohio State and Illinois, on paper, they are very similar in a lot of ways --- until it comes to defense.
The Buckeyes allow 56 points per game while Illinois allows 65.3, and that's ultimately going to be the downfall for the Illini.
Ohio State has two losses this season to Duke and Kansas, both top 10 teams, but the Kansas loss was ugly because Ohio State shot the worst percentage they've had in three years. That won't happen today against a team that refuses to play defense.
Ohio State wins by 7 today as your free play of the day.
2♦ OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Freebie winner last night on Oklahoma City over Philly.
59-47 freebie run!
Your Saturday freebie comes in the AFC Wild Card game, as I play the Bengals and the Texans to hold Under the total in their battle at Reliant Stadium.
If this matchup looks familiar, well it should, as these teams met in the opening round of the playoffs in this stadium last season - Houston a 31-10 winner as the game found its way over the total of 38 points. I don't think this year's rematch will see as many points.
Cincinnati has been doing a nice job on defense where they have held their last eight opponents to 20 points or less, and six of their last eight to an even stingier 13 points or less. No coincidence the Bengals have played Under the total in seven of their last eight games.
Houston has had some offensive issues of late, as the Texans point total has not topped 16 points in three of their last four games, and not surprisingly Houston has held Under the posted price in three in a row, four of five, and six of their last nine overall.
Last year's game was lucky to go Over the total, as the Houston defense returned an Andy Dalton pass for a "pick-six" that helped aid the total. Look for both QB's to protect the pigskin today and for this Wild Card game to hold Under the total on Saturday afternoon.
3♦ CINCINNATI-HOUSTON UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free pick for Saturday is on Kansas State in college basketball, as I think it'll open up Big 12 play with a huge win over Oklahoma State. The Wildcats are catching points at home, and after their football counterparts somewhat shit the bed the other night against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, I believe they're going to be looking to pick up the home faithful.
Many wouldn't believe that could be an intangible, but I say it's an insightful factor to take in consideration.
I realize the Pokes are one of the most talented teams in the Big 12, but be aware, it's also one of the youngest squads and that's going to be a problem against teams like Kansas State, which enters league play ranked 25th nationally and 11-2 overall.
Senior Rodney McGruder was being heralded as Kansas State's top player coming into the campaign, but I've been impressed by junior Will Spradling and sophomore Angel Rodriguez, a dynamic duo out of the backcourt. All three average more than nine points - a total of 33.3 points per game. Shane Southwell and Nino Williams are a nice tandem inside, as both have a knack for utilizing their their speed and shooting ability to frustrate defenders.
The 'Cats are nice, all around solid with depth to strengthen their game. And make note, they swept the season series against Oklahoma State last season.
Take the home underdog in this Big 12 season-opener for both.
3♦ KANSAS STATE
Matt Rivers
Saturday college hoops comp play is on the underdog Utes of Utah as they take on the 13-0 Wildcats of Arizona.
Arizona has been flirting with their first loss for a few games now, as Sean Miller's team had to comeback from double-digits on Thursday night at home against Colorado in a non-cover, and also narrowly escaped the loss in a one-point win over San Diego State the game before.
This shapes up to be a perfect spot for the 'Cats to take a breath and allow the Utes to stay close enough for the cover.
Utah is off to a solid 8-5 straight up start, and they just battled Arizona State to overtime on Thursday before bowing outright, but picking up the underdog cover.
The Utes were able to cover last season in Tucson, losing by 9 as the double-digit underdog. More of the same this afternoon.
2♦ UTAH
John Ryan
Golden State at Los Angeles
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. As Kobe Bryant stated, the Clippers are true contenders. The Clippers have formed a team that plays very well at both ends of the court. They rank eighth averaging 101.5 PPG and rank fourth allowing 93.2 PPG. This scoring differential ranks second best in the NBA. One of the fundamental reasons I like this UNDER is that GS plays solid paint defense. They rank ninth best allowing 39.8 points in the paint. The Clippers rank third averaging 46.8 points in the paint. Clips are also coming off a win against the rival Lakers and now have to play on back-to-back nights. I do expect them to be a bit flat and this give GS a chance to keep the game to a mostly half-court contested game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-23 mark for 72% winners since 2006. Play under with home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Take the UNDER.
Ray Monohan
Ohio State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois
It is time to start figuring out just how good this Ohio State team really is. They have just two losses on the season (Kansas and Duke) but haven’t looked all that great lately. Forward Deshawn Thomas is a big time scorer but I am waiting for him to be better. He is averaging 20ppg (an improvement). Ohio State spreads in the early going have been massive as the quality of their opponents has not been all that strong. The Illini roared out of the gates winning their first 12 games including an impressive win on the road at Gonzaga. But now they have lost two of their last three including their Big Ten opener on the road at Purdue, hardly one of the league’s scarier teams. If they lose at home to Ohio State they will be 0-2 in the league with a couple of tough games on the immediate horizon. They need this one more than OSU. In last year’s win Illini guard Brandon Paul went off for 43 points, hitting an amazing 8 for 10 from behind the arc. It was a glimpse of the potential that we have seen more of this year as he has increased his scoring average to 18.5ppg. In their win against the Zags he had a similar performance with 35 in the upset victory. The Illini are loaded at guard but could stand to receive more production from fellow senior. D.J Richardson, whose numbers have backslid this season. Though they have been having success the Illini have not been lining pockets. Today that changes. Being an underdog at home will bring out the best of the Illini. The Illini are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Red Dog Sports
TOWSON vs. DREXEL
PLAY: TOWSON
Take Towson +10 as the Tigers have improved greatly this year. They struggled to win a game last year and lost 60-27 at Drexel last year. Yes, they only scored 27 points and failed to cover a big dogs. However, they have brought in a Georgetown transfer, some freshmen and returning players like Dumas and Kris Weldon. The Tigers only lost at Georgetown by 6 points. Drexel is a good defensive team coached by Bruiser Flint. They have struggled some with injuries and should win today but fail to cover. My guess is 66-60.