Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs -4
I'll side with the San Antonio Spurs tonight as just a 4-point home favorite over the Denver Nuggets. San Antonio has not lost at home all season, and they are showing great value Saturday as they look to remain unbeaten at home.
The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in five home games this year. Not only are they winning, they are absolutely crushing opponents. San Antonio is scoring 101.6 points/game while allowing 85.4 points/game at home this year, outscoring foes by an average of 16.2 points/game. Denver is just 1-2 on the road this season.
San Antonio has owned Denver in recent history. The Spurs have won five of their last six meetings with the Nuggets, going 5-1 ATS in the process. San Antonio is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Spurs are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. Bet San Antonio Saturday.
Doug Upstone
Cincinnati / Houston OVER
Houston plays in and hosts its first-ever playoff game to kick off Wild Card Weekend on Saturday. This AFC matchup might be a higher scoring than some think since home teams like the Texans off two straight losses against division rivals are 26-7 OVER in their next outing.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette +11.5 over SYRACUSE: I have had the pulse of this Marquette team for much of the year (6-1 in their games) and I feel this is definitely a spot to back them again. The Golden Eagles are off a crushing come-from-ahead loss to the Hoyas the other night, but this team did show they can play with big boys as they had a big DD lead at times in that game. Marquette also has a nice win in Wisconsin and a 2 point neutral court win over Washington on their resume, plus they did win one of those early season tourneys, so this team does play well away from home. Today they will be taking on an undefeated Syracuse team that really has a bullseye on their backs and they truly do get everyone's best shot. The Orange has started off 3-0 in the Big East, but 2 of three wins were vs Providence and Depaul and now they really take a step up in competition. The Orange has crushed their opponents at home by an average of 25 ppg, but they have gone just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 their, with a couple of single digit wins vs Marshall and Florida thrown in there. This is the toughest team that Syracuse will have faced this year and according to KenPom they have played the 118th toughest schedule so far, while Marquette has dealt with the 70th. Last time out Marquette allowed GTown to shoot 76% in the second half and it cost them the game. This is a team that is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, so you can expect them to tighten the screws at that end of the floor. I expect their defense to keep them close in this one. Cuse win this one, but just by single digits.
2 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Florida Over 146: FLORIDA is 15-3 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons and 19-4 OVER after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ West Virginia Over 131.5: W VIRGINIA is 12-4 OVER after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons
More Later
SPORTS WAGERS
SMU +3½/+156 over Pittsburgh
The Mustangs of SMU are coming off a hugely disappointing year. They were expected to challenge for the Conference-USA championship but didn't even come close. They went just 7-5 on the year, they lost four of its last six including blowout losses at Houston (37-7) and at Tulsa (38-7). SMU lost its final three road games and were outscored 102-17. They also lost its best offensive threat in RB Zach Line. So, what is there to like about the Ponies? Well, the Panthers are in even worse shape. Their head coach, Todd Graham, practically walked out on them for greener pastures at Arizona State. Pittsburgh had no interest in bowling in Birmingham for a second straight year even before the debacle that was Todd Graham's departure. Pitt's QB situation is as bad as its offensive line. Tino Sunseri behind center is without question the biggest liability at that position than any other QB in this year's Bowl participants. He's a disaster waiting to happen, he gets no protection and his skills and decision-making abilities are awful. The Panthers really have no desire to be here under these conditions. SMU has plenty of issues, including its own coaching drama, but if the Mustangs show up with any fight at all they'll beat a Pitt team in about the worst bowl spot imaginable. Pittsburgh is a train wreck that makes SMU look red-hot. Play: SMU +3½ (Risking 1.51 units to win 1.5). Play: SMU +156 (Risking 1 unit).
Joseph D'Amico
Charlotte vs. St. Josephs
Play: St. Josephs -8½
St. Joes has a solid unit. They had 6 straight victories before a loss to a talented Harvard team. However, the Hawks came back strong with a 84-82 OT win over Duquesne as a 'dog. They have covered 8 straight and are 10-1 ATS this season. They will beat up Charlotte at home where the Hawks are an impressive 7-0. Charlotte dropped 3 of their L4 SU, and are looking sluggish. They really don't have a presence in the blocks. St. Joes has been shooting lights-out with 67.9% from the line and 39.7% beyond the arc. The Hawks have the muscle to spank the 49ers down low. Charlotte ranks 260th in FG% at 40.5%. Not great! The home team is 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings. The 49ers are 15-37 ATS their L52 games played against the Atlantic 10 while the Hawks are 5-0 ATS their L5 against the Atlantic 10. Take St. Joes.
Eric Williams
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
PLAY: HOUSTON +4
Okay NFL gamblers, I don’t see a whole lot of reason to waste time beating around the bush with this pick, mostly because I expect this contest to play out much like the team’s regular season meeting in which the Texans escaped with a narrow 20-19 road win over the Bengals (9-7 SU, 8-6-2 ATS, 11-5 O/U), though this one should be just a tad different with the Texans playing at home.
Houston averaged 23.8 points per game this season (10th), as running back Arian Foster rushed for 1,224 yards and backup Ben Tate, an eye-opening 942 yards and impressive 5.4-yard average.
The Bengals lost five games in falling to the Texans and division rival Steelers and Ravens two times apiece.
Still, I really like the way the Bengals have played this season and I believe they are going to make this contest a flat-out war because of their outstanding defense. Nevertheless, I like the Texans to get the SU and ATS win for one large reason – they’re playing at home in their first playoff game in franchise history – and have arguably the game’s best defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips.
The Texans have recorded an impressive 5-2-2 ATS mark in their last nine home games while also going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. With Cincinnati going 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings against the Texans, things don’t look very good for the Bengals or their fans.
The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last half-dozen games in the month of January, 0-4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against their AFC conference rivals.
The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their L/4 games against a team with a winning record and an encouraging 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
I like the Houston Texans to win this contest and very narrowly cover the NFL betting line.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -½ +102 over Vancouver
1:00 PM EST. Stanley Cup hangover? That lasted approximately three games to open the year but since then, the Bruins have been like Mary Poppins, practically perfect in every way. Boston's recent record and offensive numbers are staggering. The Bruins have lost just four games over their past 27. In Boston’s past seven games, they have wins of 9-0, 6-1, 8-0 and 6-0 among others. The NHL hasn't seen a team dominating like this since the Montreal Canadiens of the 70's and the Islanders of the early 80's. Among the other 29 teams in the NHL, there's probably no other team that the B's would rather beat up on than the Canucks. These two met in last year's Finals and the Canucks played nasty like they always do. Vancouver tried to intimidate Boston and they tried to impose their physical will on them. It worked somewhat at the beginning of the series in Vancouver but in the end, the Bruins prevailed with a dominating game seven victory in Vancouver. In the three games played in Boston, The B's outscored the Canucks 17-3 and made Roberto Luongo look like a mouse. Luongo has been off since Wednesday's shutout. Interesting that he's opted out of this game. Instead of insisting to play to redeem himself, he's taken the cowards way out once again and the B's will make the Canucks pay once again. Play: Boston -½ +102 (Risking 2 units).
SAN JOSE -½ +110 over Washington
The best thing about this game is that the Capitals have won four straight and the perception is that they've shaken off a rough stretch and they're back to being the Caps of old. Think again. Washington's four wins came against the Rangers at home (give them credit) but then they beat reeling teams, Columbus, Buffalo and Calgary. The Caps only road win over that span came in Columbus in a game they trailed going to the third period. Prior to that road win they had lost three straight on the road. The Caps are an average hockey team that is going to be frequently exposed as such the rest of the way against good teams. Now they'll play on the road against an elite team that is heating up. The Sharks have won three in a row and seven of nine. They recently took three out of a possible four points against Vancouver. They are not only winning lately but they're also dominating play, spending most of the game in the other teams end. Even when the Caps were a force in this league and favorites to win the Cup, they never had success at the Shark Tank. They don't play here much but their last five trips here have resulted in losses by scores of 3-2, 5-2, 7-2, 4-1 and 2-0 and we expect nothing less here. Play: San Jose -½ +110 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +168 over ST. LOUIS
The Avalanche played last night in Chicago but fatigue should not be an issue, as Colorado had been off for three days prior. They come into this game as the second hottest team in the NHL, behind the Bruins, with a four-game winning streak and victories in nine of its last 10 games. Aside from this sweet tag, what makes the Av's even more appealing is that they own the Blues. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, Colorado has beaten this host two straight and in eight of nine games. When Ken Hitchcock took over in St. Louis, they went on a huge run and sustained it for some time. However, there are signs that they're cooling off. The Blue Notes rallied from a 3-1 deficit in its last game to just beat the Oilers. They had lost three of four before that and they're just 5-5 over its last 10 games. The Blues last five wins have come against Columbus, Phoenix twice, Dallas and Edmonton and what those teams have in common is that all will miss the playoffs. Blues on the decline, Avs peaking equals an overlay and great chance for ching ching in our pockets. Play: Colorado +168 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +104 over CALGARY
How can we not take the Wild here? Calgary has lost five games in a row and they return home from a grueling seven-game trip that started before Christmas. They come home with more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie, not to mention the suspension of Rene Bourque until January 14. This was a weak team to begin with and now they're being asked to win without the services of Bourque, Alex Tanguay, Derek Smith and Matt Stajan who join Mark Giordano and David Moss on the rack. The Wild are going through a rough stretch of their own. However, we saw this team play exceptionally well in late November and early Decemeber and they finally have most of their injured players back. The Wild at least play their hearts out on most nights and they really couldn't handpicked a team as beatable as the Flames are right now. Play: Mnnesota +104 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +10 over PHILADELPHIA
What a perfect spot for the Raptors to stay well within this range or even pull off the upset. The 76ers are coming off a 23-point win over the Pistons last night while the Raps are coming off a 12-point home-loss to the previously, one-win Nets. Combine those two results and what it's created is a complete overreactiopn by the market. Philly is 4-2 but all of its wins have come against dregs, Phoenix, Golden State, New Orleans and Detroit. The 76ers also opended the year with five straight on the road and returned last night to play its home opener. That is a game you get up for. Now with a 4-2 record and playing its third game in four nights after that five-game trip, the Sixers could absolutely be flat tonight and even if they're not they would be hard-pressed to cover this number. The Raps are 3-4. Last night was their first flat performance of the year. Toronto has played Dallas, Orlando, Indiana and New York among others and realistically they could've opened the year 6-0 before losing last night. The Raps had a 17-point lead in Orlando, an eight point lead in Dallas and they lost by just five to Indiana. Those were three winnable games to go along with their other three wins. This is not the same Raptor team as last season. They have a lot of the same players but they're playing great defense, Andrea Bargnani is playing all-star caliber basketball and the whole team is responding to coach Dwayne Casey's philosophies. Raptors are grossly undervalued here and thus, this is a wager that should not be missed Play: Toronto +10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
BEN BURNS
Canucks @ Bruins
PICK: Under 5.5
Big Stanley Cup rematch here. Both teams are playing very well, particularly Boston. Indeed, the Bruins have won their last two games by a combined score of 15-1!
With all the Bruins' recent offense, many may not have realized that the champs are also playing very well defensively. They've allowed one goal or less in four of their last five games.
While the strong defensive play is likely to continue, I expect the Bruins to have more trouble scoring this afternoon. The Canucks are off a 3-0 shutout and have seen three straight games produce five or fewer combined goals. They've allowed three or fewer goals in nine of their last 10.
Even with Thursday's 9-0 victory, the Bruins have still seen the 'under' go a lucrative 39-23 at home, when the O/U line is 5.5, the past few seasons.
Three of the final four in last year's finals produced four or fewer combined goals. I expect another low-scoring affair. Consider the Under.
SEAN MURPHY
Carolina Hurricanes @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators
This is a nice rebound spot for the Predators, following Thursday's 4-1 home loss to the Stars.
Note that Nashville had won three games in a row heading into that contest. The Preds remain a solid 7-2 over their last nine home games.
It's also worth noting that Nashville welcomed its captain, Shea Weber, back to the ice on Thursday. He had missed time due to a concussion. Weber makes a big difference, not only on the back-end, but offensively as well.
The Hurricanes notched a 4-2 win over the Sabres last night, but that came on home ice, where they've at least been respectable this season. The road hasn't been nearly as kind, as the 'Canes have gone a miserable 4-11-4.
In fact, Carolina hasn't won a road game since December 7th in Edmonton. Since then, they've dropped five in a row on the highway.
History isn't on the 'Canes side tonight either. They've lost five consecutive meetings in this series, outscored by a wide 17-7 margin over that stretch. Their last matchup here in Nashville was a laugher, as the Preds rolled to a 5-2 victory, outshooting the 'Canes 39-30.
We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price, but it's warranted in my opinion. Look for the Preds to take care of business before enjoying a couple of days off.
Sam Martin
Dayton at Temple
Play: Dayton
Perfect time for Dayton to take on a good Temple team, as they catch the Owls in a huge letdown spot after upsetting Duke their last time out. After a team beats a squad the caliber of the Blue Devils, it's usually a good idea to fade them the next time out in the obvious letdown spot, but when a smaller team like Temple is the one to pull the upset, the letdown factor is even greater. Dayton is a decent team and is more than capable of taking advantage - and we look for the Flyers to have a shot at an outright win here today!
JR O'Donnell
NC Wilmington -3.5
We have two teams who started differently and now are going in completely different directions. Hofstra is 6-9 (3-6-1 ATS) while the Seahawks are 6-7 (8-3 ATS) and have won "6" of their last "8" while Hofstra has won "3" of their last "9". UNCW has played Maryland, Dayton, VCU, and Wake Forest on the road, all losses, and Marshall, Davidson at home. Hofstra has only a big loss to VCU at home and a home win versus Iona. They have no road wins at this time. UNCW is one of if not the youngest team in the nation, with "8" freshman, "4' sophomores and no seniors who play. they are led by freshman Adam Smith (Parade All-American 2nd team) in scoring followed closely by all conference 6-8 Keith Rendleman who is averaging a double double for he season. UNCW is playing 3-4 freshman at a time and have been getting better and closing out some games after losing by 9 (MD), 5 (Marshall, 3 (Davidson), 2 Toledo away, and Wake Forest 9. They return their top "3" fg% shooters, and are led from the "3" by the frosh Adam Smith. POWER RATED @ - 7.55 POINTS
Andrew Lange
Washington at Utah
Play: Under 141.5
Playing Washington under the total would seems like a crazy idea because the Huskies take quick shots and have had a difficult time buying into the concept of defense. But I think both those will be points of emphasis heading into tonight's game against Utah. Head coach Lorenzo Romar is getting a little impatient with his team's impatience on offense and is also asking for a little better defensive effort. Tonight's opponent Utah could provide the perfect storm. The Utes have somehow won three of their last five games by simply playing hard, milking the clock and hoping to stick around at the end. Last time out, they beat up-tempo Washington State 62-60 in overtime. That game had 62 possessions. The game before that was a 59 possession affair vs. Colorado and against Weber State, 60 possessions. Those aren't the type of teams that like to wait long on offense which means Utah is doing a good job at dictating the pace of its games. The road has never been kind to Washington and despite Utah's record, the Huskies are unlikely to take this one lightly. It doesn't take much to defend Utah and perhaps the Huskies will be a little less trigger happy in a game they desperately need to win. Play it under.
Nelly
Oklahoma + over Kansas
Kansas has a reputation as an elite team and while there is some great talent on this squad the resume does not indicate greatness. Kansas has been tested through a quality schedule but they have only played one road game. Two losses came in neutral site games and the Jayhawks also lost at home to Davidson. The best win, over Ohio State came with the Buckeyes best player absent and this could be a difficult follow-up game after trouncing rival Kansas State on Wednesday. In that game the Wildcats shot just 31 percent and Kansas won easily despite sloppy play including 19 turnovers. Oklahoma has played Kansas very tough as heavy underdogs the last two years and this season the Sooners could well play a spoiler role in the Big XII while also being a legitimate NCAA tournament contender. Oklahoma has just three losses, coming to St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Missouri so there are not real blights on the resume. Wins over Washington State, Santa Clara, Oral Roberts, Arkansas, and Houston give a little meat to the schedule and this should be a quality home team, already sitting with a 7-0 S/U mark. Given the possible letdown spot and a rare road test, this looks like a flat spot for Kansas and Oklahoma is good enough to make it a real challenging game.
Harry Bondi
Pittsburgh -3.5
Expect a fired-up Panthers squad today as they will be looking to send a message to their former head coach, Todd Graham, who they feel abandoned them by bolting for Arizona State. The Panther players have been very vocal about how much they'd like to prove to their former head coach that he shouldn't have left and that they really want to give interim head coach Phil Bennett, the team's well-liked defensive coordinator, a big win. On the SMU sideline the vibe will be much different. Ironically, head coach June Jones interviewed and very much wanted the Arizona State job. When he didn't get it, Jones had to "settle" for his old job as the Mustangs head coach and the players feel betrayed. Not only that, but SMU will be without workhorse RB Zach Line, who was responsible for more than 50% of the team's total offense this season. His replacement will be a pair of untested freshmen and with Pitt's ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, we don't expect much offensive output from the Mustangs. Lay the short number with the more motivated team.