Larry Ness
UC Irvine -3.5
Cal-Irvine enters 5-10 overall but is off to a 2-1 start in Big West play. The Anteaters have played Cal and UCLA (Pac 12), LSU (SEC) plus ventured to Anchorage for the Great Alaska Shootout in non-conference play. The team has a nice trio of guards in Starring (11.6-4.4), McNealy (9.1-5.3-3.2) and Flowers (7.1), as well as a trio of solid frontcourt players. Wilder is a 6-2 forward averaging 11.2 PPG and 5.9 RPG, Davis a 6-8 freshman averaging 7.9 & 6.1 plus the 6-9 Folker, after redshirting with an injury LY, is back averaging 5.8 & 5.5. This group has been tested and gone 7-2 ATS this season in true road games. Of course, Cal-Irvine will need to win here to cover but the opponent is 1-13 UC-Davis (3-9 ATS), whose lone win has come over UC-Santa Cruz (by just six points). To say the least, former Bradley player and head coach Jim Les, is NOT having the kind of rookie season he had hoped for. Junior guard Spykens was expected to lead this team and was averaging a team-high 14.5 PPG when a knee ended his year after just four games. The 6-9 Ritchart (12.1-14.6) now leads the team with Les' son Tyler (a 6-2 guard) averaging 10.1 PPG. UC-Davis is currently on a 3-14 ATS slide at home and I expect not much will change here.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Kansas -5 over OKLAHOMA: (Added) The Sooners have had a nice 10-3 start to their year, but the fact still remains that this team was pick near the bottom of the Big 12 standings , while Kansas has been picked to challenge for a spot in the Final Four. Ken Pom has Kansas ranked 5th (23rd SOS), while he has the Sooners ranked 71st (208th SOS) Pretty big gaps there for just a 5 point spread. This is just the second true road game for Kansas and Oklahoma is 7-0 at home this year, but they really only beat 1 team of note at home and that was Arkansas. In their last 4 games Oklahoma beat 2 no lined teams, while losing on the road at a depleted Cincy squad and in their Big 12 opener the were crushed by Missouri by 36 points and Kansas is just as good as the Tigers. the Jayhawks had an embarrassing home loss to Davidson back in December, but since that loss they have reeled off 4 straight wins, which included a 16 point road win over USC and an 18 point home win over 15th ranked KSU. Kansas has also enjoyed good success in this series of late as they have taken the last 7 meetings with the last 6 being by at least 9 points. Kansas is clearly the better team and Oklahoma parlayed a soft schedule into their 10-3 start, but they are into the Big 12 portion of their schedule and they find out just how far they are away from competing with the Big Boys in the Conference.
4 UNIT PLAY
Nebraska/ Illinois Over 116: (Added) Really hard to look at an Over with a team that's as bad on offense as the Huskers have been of late, but as you will see the overall numbers really do support this play. . Husker games have averaged 123.6 ppg overall, while their road games have put up 126 ppg. They have struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 45 ppg in their last 3, but their defense has not played all that well of late as they have allowed 68 ppg over their last 4 games. I really don't expect them to be held below 50 points in this one. The Huskers average 59.8 ppg on the road, while Illinois has allowed 70.3 ppg in their last 4 games overall and 57.2 ppg at home this year, so getting at least the 53 points that Vegas is expecting from them (Line is 10) should be rather easy. The Illini offense has sputtered some of late, but they still average 73 ppg at home, while Nebraska has allowed 66.2 ppg on the road and to middle that we would get 69.5 points form Illinois. The way that Nebraska has has played defense of late 69.5 points are certainly attainable by this Illini squad. In looking at the last 5 games for each team well also find that Nebraska games have averaged 117 ppg, while Illinois' last 5 have averaged 135.4 ppg. Neither team is great from beyond the Arc, but both teams do hit over 71% of their FT's and in a physical Big 10 game that should come into play. Vegas says 116 points, while I say around 125. KEY TREND--- ILLINOIS is 13-5 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette +11.5 over SYRACUSE: I have had the pulse of this Marquette team for much of the year (6-1 in their games) and I feel this is definitely a spot to back them again. The Golden Eagles are off a crushing come-from-ahead loss to the Hoyas the other night, but this team did show they can play with big boys as they had a big DD lead at times in that game. Marquette also has a nice win in Wisconsin and a 2 point neutral court win over Washington on their resume, plus they did win one of those early season tourneys, so this team does play well away from home. Today they will be taking on an undefeated Syracuse team that really has a bullseye on their backs and they truly do get everyone's best shot. The Orange has started off 3-0 in the Big East, but 2 of three wins were vs Providence and Depaul and now they really take a step up in competition. The Orange has crushed their opponents at home by an average of 25 ppg, but they have gone just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 their, with a couple of single digit wins vs Marshall and Florida thrown in there. This is the toughest team that Syracuse will have faced this year and according to KenPom they have played the 118th toughest schedule so far, while Marquette has dealt with the 70th. Last time out Marquette allowed GTown to shoot 76% in the second half and it cost them the game. This is a team that is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, so you can expect them to tighten the screws at that end of the floor. I expect their defense to keep them close in this one. Cuse win this one, but just by single digits.
2 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Florida Over 146: FLORIDA is 15-3 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons and 19-4 OVER after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
Missouri -1 over KANSAS STATE: (Added) MISSOURI is 46-26 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. KenPom has the Tigers at 7th, despite the 324th rated schedule, While KSU is 25 vs a much easier 142nd ranked SOS. Tigers stay undefeated.
1 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ West Virginia Over 131.5: W VIRGINIA is 12-4 OVER after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/ Houston Under 38: (Google News Play) Defense, defense defense. That's what this game will be all about. The Houston Texans come in ranked in the NFL's top five in total defense, against the run and the pass and scoring defense. This is a defense that really needed to play well this year, especially down the stretch when injuries ravaged their offense. The Houston offense had averaged 27.3 ppg through their first 10 games, but once Schaub went out they then put up just 18 ppg in their last 6 games. Houston has really turned to their run game down the stretch and i expect the to use it here as well as they won't take many chances with rookie QB TJ Yates. I expect the Bengals to use the same game plan with Benson, as they will also not look to take chances with their rookie QB. The Bengal defense has really been tough this year as well as they rank in the top 10 in Total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and points allowed and they should be able to hold down this Houston offense that has struggled down the stretch. Both teams will really take the conservative approach here as they won't take chances with their rookie QB, plus it also doesn't hurt to have 2 of the best all around defenses on the field as well. I just don't see how this game can hit 38 points. Go with the Under here. KEY TRENDS--- CINCINNATI is 16-5 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992, while HOUSTON is 10-3 UNDER on grass fields this year.
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
New Orleans/ Detroit Over 59: The OVER is 6-1-1 in the Saints last 8 playoff games, while their last 3 non-Superbowl postseason games have all hit at least 59 points. This game features 2 QB's that have combined for 10,500 yards and 87 passing TD's. Are you serious?!!!. The Saints have the ability to score every time they touch the ball and that usually means that team have to abandon the run quickly in their games. Running the ball will NOT keep Detroit in this one, especially since their running game is 29th in the league (95.2 ypg). Theiir pass game, however is ranked 4th in the leageu (300.4 ypg) and they are 12th in the league in yards per pass attempt (7.2 ). The Saints know something about passing and the big play as they rank 1st in passing (334.2 ypg) and they rank 3rd in yards per attempt at 8.1 (9.5 ypa in the last 3 games). These two high powered attacks, that are 1-2 in the league in pass attempts per game (82 combined) will take aim at two of the worst pass defenses in the league. Teams have had to pass vs the Saints just to keep up, so the Saints come in allowing 259.8 ypg (30th), while Detroits shoddy pass defense comes in allowing 239.4 ypg and they are not coming in here on a high note as they allowed Packers backup QB Matt Flynn to throw for 480 yards and 6 TD's. That deserves a second " Are You Serious?!!!). The Saints last 3 down the stretch have all topped 60 points and they average 41 ppg at home on the year, while Detroit's last 3 have averaged 62 ppg and they have hit 28+ points in each of their last 4 games. I expect about 65 points in this one (38-27 Saints). POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over if the road team is off an upset loss as a favorite and they have a winning record on the season. This play is 51-21 the last 5 seasons.
Andy Iskoe
Bengals +3 at Texans 38½
Houston makes its first playoff appearance in the 10 season history of the franchise but does so riding a 3 game losing streak with all 3 losses against teams that did not make the playoffs. Only one, Tennessee, had a .500 record. Houston’s last win came at Cincinnati in Week 14, 20-19, as the Texans outgained the Bengals 512-285.
The Texans are plagued by QB issues that have them likely to rely on third string QB T J Yates, a rookie, who was banged up last week but is listed as probable. Jake Delhomme is in reserve. Cincinnati does not have a wealth of playoff experience on its recent resume, though they did win the AFC North just two seasons ago but lost as a small home favorite to the Jets in the Wild Card round.
The Bengals have not fared well this season when facing top teams. They were 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 ATS when facing teams that were 10-6 or better this season, losing by an average of more than 9 points per game. Included in that was the earlier home loss to the Texans. Overall the Texans had the better offense and the better defense. They had the stronger rushing offense, gaining an average of 153 ypg, second best in the league.
Cincinnati also relies on a rookie QB, Andy Dalton, but Dalton has been the starter since Week 1. He did slump down the stretch as defenses were better able to spot his tendencies. Houston’s late season slump is a concern but the Texans did have some solid wins during the season and wrapped up the AFC South title early.
The Texans gave the Saints their toughest home test of the season, losing by just 7. Houston also has home wins over a pair of playoff teams, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Cincinnati did not defeat a team all season that finished above .500. TEXANS.
Lions +10½ at Saints 59
Detroit returns to the playoffs for the first time since 1999 while the Saints are in the postseason for a third straight season. After winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago the Saints were eliminated in the Wild Card round last season, losing in Seattle 41-36 despite being 10 point favorites.
That left a bitter taste within the Saints organization that has this team highly motivated and arguably playing the best football of any team entering the playoffs. New Orleans has won 8 straight, including a 31-17 home win over Detroit in week 13, although the Lions did outgain the Saints 466-438. The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home this season and outscored the opposition by an average score of 41-18, with 7 of the 8 wins by more than 10 points!
In recent seasons double digit home playoff favorites have not fared well and, in fact, have lost outright twice in the last four such instances. Over the past decade double digit home favorites are just 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS. But the Saints have the profile of a team capable of winning by a margin. They have that huge edge in experience and a record setting QB, Drew Brees.
The offense is very well balanced and the defense is better than the statistics show -- statistics which, by the way, show the Lions and Saints allowing the same average yards per game. New Orleans may be the most well rounded team in the playoffs, even more so than the Packers, and given their performance at home all season and the intense motivation to atone for last season’s embarrassing first round exit the intangibles add further support.
It’s been a great season for the Lions and they seemingly have a bright future. But Detroit was 0-5 both SU and ATS when facing playoff teams this season, including three home losses. Consider this a "learning experience" for the Lions. SAINTS.
WUNDERDOG
Baylor at Texas Tech
Pick: Baylor -14
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were put on the map when Bobby Knight took over the program, but before and after this has been an ordinary team. They are 7-6 on the season, and their 6-0 home mark is very misleading as they have played six very soft teams. The Baylor Bears' sports programs are on a big uptick, with their football team becoming relevant and their hoops team stands at a perfect 14-0 on the season. It isn't a soft 14-0 either as their last four wins and seven on the season has all come at the expense of quality teams. The Red Raiders are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine have all come vs. poor teams - an indicator that this team will struggle. Play on Baylor in this one.