Brent Brooks
Syracuse -6.5
The Pirates are in a world of hurt. A hodge podge of marginally talented second and third options that fade in and out of actually giving a damn. Herb Pope is a walking disaster and unless Theodore is hot they have no outside shooting. They may be competitive early in this game but the effects of the Cuse zone and Jackson's rebounding will create and grow a comfortable second half lead for the Orange. Of all Big East teams, SH is the worst right now - below Rutgers and even DePaul.
I had doubts about Syracuse earlier in the year when they were sleepwalking through games but now they have geled and while this is their first true road game - I am undeterred by that. They will stumble at some point during a road conference and soon but not against the likes of the Pirates. Book it.
California +1
The Bears showed me something in their loss to Arizona. Low post toughness in Markhuri Sanders-Frison, shooting touch from Allen Crabbe and pesky persistence from Jorge Gutierrez.
I can finally forgive them for the 5 point half they registered against Notre Dame back on the 26th of November at the Old Spice Classic. Mike Montgomery has them playing well - as bad as he is at coaching in the NBA, he seems to excel in the college game where its less about managing personalities and more about utilizing strengths and concealing weaknesses. I expect the Bears to grind out each possession and hamper the Sun Devils offensives flow. As it happens, that hasn't been hard to do at times this season as ASU can go cold against scrappy defense and that's exactly what they'll be facing today. If Sanders-Frison and Harper Kamp can stay out of foul trouble and on the court.
Brigham Young / Air Force Over 140
So many of these opening lines on totals are born out of composite stats from the beginning of the season that weight every game until now the same without accounting for trends. Here we have the Air Force Falcons who are clicking on offense to a far greater degree than they were early in the season. We know BYU can score in droves at home - Air Force will be up to help the cause here. Yet again, a soft over with two great FT % teams. This total is about 7 to 8 points too low.
Florida St. +4
Ignore the Hokies' creampuff wins and look at when they've actually been challenged so far this year. They've absolutely struggled against above average teams. Why? Over reliance on Malcolm Delaney to create offensively and lackluster decision making when secondary scorers are forced to create. They'll be up for this game for sure but so will FSU. Chris Singleton is a beast on both ends of the floor and the Seminoles have passed the eyeball test so far this year.
Advanced stats actually have the Hokies rated slightly ahead of FSU, hence the spread we are grabbing here. To show we aren't a slave to numbers and only use them as part of the equation - we'll ride FSU against a very overrated VTech team. If its close, and it may well be, having these four points may well come in handy. If the line were a pick - I'd be tempted but at +4 its a value grab thanks to hundreds of eyeball hours in CBB this year screaming loud and clear who the better team is here.
Texas A&M -7
The Aggies have lost one game all season. Guess who had them that day against Boston College? Yep, Yours Truly. I haven't gotten back the well since despite their hot streak. Here against a mistake prone, poorly coached Sooners team - I can't resist.
Khris Middleton is one of the most unsung players in the Big 12. Nathan Walkup is having a fine senior season so far. Dash Harris, Louebeau, BJ Holmes - this team is loaded with solid players. Mark Turgeon is a solid in game coach in my opinion and should be able to coach circles around Jeff Capel. Seven points is just a tick outside our key number of six and in this case we'll venture out beyond six and back the Aggies. The Sooners have more problems and faults that I care to type out right now. Just know that they are flawed eight ways from Sunday and tend to gift their opposition with unforced errors followed by bouts of frustration, anger (trying to score 8 points on one possession) and then resignation. Aggies romp here.
Tom Freese
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Indiana is 14-18 straight up this year. The Pacers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 games overall. The Pacers are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 road games. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS their last 10 games as underdogs. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games at Atlanta. The Hawks are 24-14 straight up this year. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS their last 6 home games and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games overall. The Hawks 4-0 ATS their last 4 games as favorites. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a straight up losing record.
Charlie Scott
Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Kentucky +4
If Your looking for some Early Saturday morning Football action, I feel Kentucky is the way to go. Pitt players have been through alot the last Month and I don't know how they could be focused or motivated to play Today. First the Pitt administration Fires player Coach Wannstedt and replaces hin with a MAC coach, but Christmas weekend that coach get's arrested for knocking around his wife, so he get's fired. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky Head Coach Joker Phillips just completed Year 1 at Kentucky and is motivated to win this Bowl. Kentucky QB Hartline is suspended for the Bowl, but backup Newton was a starter in 2009 and was able to prepare as the starter for a month. SEC vs Big East ? Play the motivated Dog !
David Chan
Bruins @ Canadiens
PICK: Under 5
I bet value where I see it, and expect the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens to play "under" the total here.
Boston will have to play a disciplined game tonight as it looks to avoid a fifth straight loss in the series.
It will also be motivated here after having its six-game point streak snapped in its 3-1 home loss to the Wild on Thursday (note that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in all eight games its played this year after a loss by two-goals or more in its previous contest).
Montreal is within one-point of the Bruins because of a 2-0-1 run in its last three contests, which includes its 2-1 shootout victory over the Penguins on Thursday (note that the Habs have consistently been one of the stingiest teams in the league, seeing the total go "under" the number in 9 of 11 division contests thus far).
Although he's struggled against the Habs in the past, Tim Thomas leads the NHL in goals-against-average (1.80) and save percentage (.945).
All signs point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one.
Jeff Benton
Now onto today’s freebie winner in college basketball, as we’ll take Oklahoma State at home Kansas State in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
For some reason, the coaches and media who vote for the Top 25 polls have fallen for Kansas State (which is 12-3 and ranked 17th both polls) but don’t at all believe in Oklahoma State (which is 12-2 and not even among those receiving votes in either poll). Doesn’t make much sense, because while you could justifiably argue that the Cowboys haven’t beaten anyone this year (two losses came to Gonzaga and Virginia Tech; best wins were against Alabama and Stanford, neither of whom is very good), the same could be said for Kansas State.
Yes, the Wildcats beat the two teams that beat Oklahoma State (73-57 win over Virginia Tech; 81-64 win over Gonzaga), but they’re 0-3 SU and ATS against Duke, UNLV and Florida (all three were outside their home gym). And it’s not like K-State’s RPI rating (32nd) is drastically better than the Cowboys’ (42nd).
Oklahoma State has won seven of the last nine meetings and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. Additionally, the Cowboys are on a 6-1-1 ATS roll overall; they’re 7-0 SU at home this year and 36-14-3 ATS in their last 53 as a host; and they’ve cashed in 19 of their last 28 in conference. Conversely, Kansas State is just 3-6 ATS this season (four straight non-covers coming into this one), and the ‘Cats are on additional pointspread slides of 1-5 on the road, 1-5 on Saturday, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-4 when facing teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
Throw in the fact the home team is on a 4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and I’ll side with the Cowboys at a very cheap price.
5♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Craig Davis
Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh at Birmingham, AL
Today's free play is on the Kentucky/Pittsburgh Bowl game to go OVER the total.
Much like last night's Texas A&M/LSU game where it appeared the under was the right play with two good defenses, this matchup appears to have under written all over it. That's one of the many reasons I think the over is the right play here.
Kentucky's defense has been a joke all year, allowing nearly 30 points per game and over 400 yards per contest. Pittsburgh scored 20 or more points in six of their last seven games, and they did it with a combination of their talented, young running back (Deon Lewis) and QB Tino Sunseri.
Lewis ended the regular season against Cincinnati with his best ever performance... 42 carries for 261 yards and four touchdowns. Sick.
Remember, Pittsburgh has one of the best WRs in the land in Jonathan Baldwin, and Kentucky doesn't have anyone on their roster that can match him one-on-one. If they try to double him, Pittsburgh has more than enough talent at the other WR positions to take advantage of the matchups.
I have no doubts Pittsburgh will score 28 or more points this afternoon, and I'm actually calling for 34-37 points. So basically I'm only needing a couple of touchdowns from the Wildcats and I have no doubts they can provide that.
Yes, I'm aware that QB Mike Hartline has been suspended for this game, but that doesn't bother me as much as you might think. Kentucky still has plenty of talent on offense, and it's likely they'll use RB/WR/Athlete Randall Cobb as the QB today, but don't be surprised if they run a lot of Wildcat as well. Cobb is multi-talented and will definitely be playing on Sundays.
The Wildcats have Derrick Locke as their top RB, finishing the season with 24 carries for 100 yards and a TD in a 24-14 loss to Tennessee. So unless he or one of the other key Wildcats go down with injury today, they should have absolutely no problem scoring some points.
Free play of the day on the Wildcats/Panthers game to go over the total.
3♦ OVER
Scott Delaney
Kentucky (+4) at PITTSBURGH, at Birmingham, AL
I'm playing the Wildcats in this lone bowl matchup, as the Panthers will be like the handful of other Bowl teams that were disappointed with their placement and played lackadaisical... a la Nebraska.
Pittsburgh had higher hopes for its 2010 campaign, and it all fell apart, despite a decent run toward the end of the year. It didn't matter, and here the Panthers are in a Comapass Bowl.
It's fitting, since at this point, there's no telling which direction the Panthers are going after this game, given the coaching dilemma they're now in.
Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt isn't out. Panthers offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti won't coach in the bowl game after making a lateral move to Rutgers. Tight ends coach Brian Angelichio is the goto guy calling the plays for Pittsburgh. And the bigger distraction, from a media standpoint, is would-have-been incoming coach Mike Haywood was fired last week after being arrested on a domestic violence charge.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats couldn't be any happier, playing in a bowl game after a 2-6 SEC season, but finishing 6-6 overall. Make note, that means Kentucky was 4-0 in non-conference play.
Pittsburgh did have a decent defense, I'll give it that much, but I just think running back Derrick Locke is going to be the workhorse in this game and will make a splash in this one. The atmosphere in Birmingham is more like it is in Kentucky, not in Pittsburgh, and I think the southern comfort will do the 'Cats right.
They're 4-1 this season when he has rushed for at least 100 yards. Locke is my lock for the 'Cats to run wild!!!
Take the points!
2♦ KENTUCKY
Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats -4.5
I am siding with the Charlotte Bobcats Saturday to keep the Washington Wizards winless on the road this season. Washington is nearly halfway through their schedule, yet they still haven't tasted victory on the road. The Wizards are 0-17 SU & 5-12 ATS away from home this season, scoring just 94.6 PPG and allowing a ridiculous 109.1 PPG. As you can see, they are getting outscored by a whopping 14.5 PPG on the road this year. This young team just simply hasn't learned how to get it done away from home.
Charlotte is playing much better of late since making a coaching change. The Bobcats have won three of their last five, with their only losses coming by a single point against Golden State and to the red hot Miami Heat. Washington has not won back-to-back games all season, and coming off a win last night I don't expect them to break that trend, either. The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their third game in four days, while the Bobcats will be playing with 2 days' rest and only their 2nd game in 5 days. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS following a win this season, losing by an average of 14.7 PPG in this spot. Take Charlotte Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pitt Panthers -8
Look for Pitt to flex its muscles at home against Marquette this afternoon. Pitt is an awesome 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 81.7 to 66.2. In addition, the Panthers are a tremendous 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lastly, Pitt is 14-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks +5
Nowitzki is expected to miss another game, but that won't keep me from backing the Mavs on their home floor catching 5 points. Dallas will be the fresher team, having not played since Thursday. Orlando played last night and is a poor 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The Magic have also been a poor road investment, going 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points tonight as Dallas has an excellent chance to win this one outright.
Scott Rickenbach
Orlando @ Dallas
PICK: Orlando -5
While the Mavericks are rested and off of a loss, they are still too short-handed to match-up properly with the Magic. Yes, Orlando was in action last night and this is a back to back spot for them but Dallas just lost Caron Butler for the season and Dirk Nowitzki is still doubtful for tonight’s game. Since Nowitzki has been out, the Mavs have gone 2-4 and it certainly won’t get any easier as they now take on a Magic team that plays this game with revenge for a 6-point home loss at the hands of the Mavs last month. In fact, the road team has now won and covered each of the last three meetings between these teams. The average margin of victory for the road team in each of those games was 10.3 points.
Note that Orlando brings an 8-game winning streak into tonight’s match-up and the Magic have covered 7 of those 8 games. The closest game of all 8 victories was an 8-point win. Yes, Orlando wins and covers again here! Look for the Magic to improve to 15-5 ATS the last three seasons when they enter a game having played each of their prior games at home. As for the Mavericks, look for them to drop to 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when they’ve been a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Consider a small play on Orlando minus the points on Saturday evening.
LARRY NESS
Indiana @ Atlanta
PICK: Atlanta -7
Indiana head coach Jim O'Brien attempted to shake up his rotation last night vs the Spurs, giving Tyler Hansbrough (5.7-3.7) his first start of the season and only the second of his career. The change helped but in the end, the Pacers lost again. Hansbrough set career highs of 23 points and 12 rebounds but Indiana would blow a 15-point third-quarter. Incredibly, the Pacers would make just ONE of 15 fourth-quarter FG attempts, getting outscored 26-12 in the final period of a 90-87 loss. Things don't figure to get much better tonight in Atlanta, where the Pacers have lost SEVEN straight games by an average of 11.0 PPG. Indiana has lost five of six, with the only win in that stretch coming at home on 12/31 to Washington, which is remains the lone winless road team in the NBA at 0-17. Speaking of road woes, the Pacers have lost their last EIGHT away from home, going 1-6-1 ATS. As for the Hawks, they are back home off a four-game trip, losing the opening game at Okla City but then winning the final three. The Hawks have been playing well since Joe Johnson returned to the lineup. Johnson missed nine games from December 1-16 due to an operation on his right elbow. He was expected to miss four-to-six weeks but he surprisingly returned on Dec 17 and the Hawks have won EIGHT of 11 since that return. Johnson has averaged 20.5 PPG since getting back on the court and is up to 18.4-4.1-5.4 on the season. Small forward Williams (11.0-4.8) is again struggling with some ailment (now it's his back) but the other "main Hawks" are all doing their jobs. Horford (16.3-9.6) and Josh Smith (15.8-8.6) up front plus PG Bibby (9.9-4.1 APG) and last year's sixth-man-of-the-year Jamal Crawford (15.8-3.6 APG) in the backcourt. The Pacers HAVE to be down off last night's collapse and history says that Atlanta is NOT the place to get back on track. Lay the points.
Joel Tyson
Michigan State at PENN STATE (+6')
Looking at an afternoon college basketball release for you now.
How about a conference home underdog play this Saturday afternoon in the Big 10?
Michigan State has picked up wins and covers in their last pair in conference play, but the Spartans had failed their previous 3 games in the favored role, and they are facing a desperate Penn State team that has lost their last pair, and 4 of their last 5.
This Nittany Lions team has played the Spartans tough in their recent showdows, as 3 of the last 4 conference battles have been decided by 5 points or less.
Looks to me like the rehab of Sparty star Kalin Lucas from his achilles tendon injury has Lucas playing at less than 100%. Couple that with a Lions team that is reeking of desperation, and I expect the points to work with this home pup on Saturday afternoon.
Take the points.
1♦ PENN STATE
Michael Cannon
Wake Forest at NC STATE (-13')
Take NC State as the big home chalk over Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons are a work in progress under new coach Jeff Bzdelick. They start two freshmen and two sophomores and they don’t have a real physical presence inside.
That’s trouble going against the Wolfpack, who have Tracy Smith inside.
Wake is also giving up an unsightly 87 ppg on the road this year, and with NC State having four starters averaging between nine and 11 ppg, the Wolfpack should be able to run it up at home.
NC State has covered four straight in this series and should cruise to the easy win here.
Lay the points with NC State for the win and cover.
3♦ NC STATE
Scott Delaney
Air Force at BYU (-20')
I like nationally ranked BYU to get it done against the Falcons tonight.
Off the blowout win at No. 25 UNLV, the Cougars will be glad to celebrate at home with an easy win against a much easier opponent.
All-everything guard Jimmy Fredette scored a season-high 39 points - sinking 7 of 13 from 3-point range - in Wednesday night's 89-77 win in the Thomas and Mack Center, so I can only imagine what he'll do against a Falcons team that is mired in a 2-31 conference slump.
The Falcons are better than they have been, but aren't near as good as UNLV, or BYU for that matter.
Air Force might be 9-1 when stifling foes to less than 70 points, but it has no shot against a Cougars team that averages 84.2 points. The Falcons are a dismal 5-27 at BYU, and are going to get wiped off the court by one of the best teams on the West coast.
1♦ BYU
Chuck O'Brien
Air Force (+21') at BYU
For Saturday’s first of two complimentary selections in college basketball, take Air Force plus the big points at BYU.
Big trap game for the Cougars, who are coming off Wednesday’s impressive 89-77 destruction of No. 25 UNLV, winning outright as a four-point road underdog thanks once again to the shooting clinic put on by All-American candidate Jimmer Fredette (12-for-25, 39 points). Although Fredette could easily duplicate that performance at home today against the Falcons, I have to believe he and his teammates are prime for a letdown, not only because they might not have come down from the UNLV win, but also because BYU heads to Salt Lake City on Tuesday for a showdown with archrival Utah.
Speaking of the Utes, they were no match for Air Force in their conference openers Wednesday, as the Falcons rolled to a 77-69 home win as a 2½-point favorite. The Falcons are off to a surprising 10-4 start, and even though they haven’t played (let alone defeated) an opponent of BYU’s caliber, they are shooting the ball very well (making nearly 50 percent of their shots) and they’ve played solid defense all season (holding opponents to 64 ppg on 39.6% shooting). Air Force will need its defense to show up today to keep this one competitive, as BYU averages 83.6 ppg, scoring 89, 90, 93 and 89 in the last four games, and last year at home the Cougars hammered the Falcons 91-48.
In fact, BYU has won the last 10 meetings in a row, cashing in eight of them, but I doubt many of those victories occurred when the Cougars were in a UNLV-Utah sandwich spot (and UNLV and Utah are BYU’s two main rivals). Also, the road team had covered in four straight in this rivalry prior to last year’s meeting in Provo.
BYU is just 5-7 ATS this season, 4-9 ATS in its last 13 when coming off a victory and 0-6 ATS following a spread-cover (the Cougars have yet to cash in consecutive games this year). That streak continues as Air Force keeps this one within 15 points.
3♦ AIR FORCE
Chuck O'Brien
Utah State (-7) at NEVADA
For Saturday’s second of two complimentary selections in college basketball, take Utah State as a big road favorite at Nevada in Western Athletic Conference action.
Two programs going in completely opposite directions, with Utah State sitting at 13-2 and riding an eight-game winning streak and Nevada at 4-11, having lost three of four. All four of Nevada’s wins have come on their home court, but the opponents weren’t exactly challenging (Hawaii, Portland State, San Francisco State and Montana).
The Wolf Pack have faced only four decent opponents this year, losing to Washington by 30, UNLV by 12, Arizona State by three and Houston by three. Granted, they covered the spread in those latter three contests, but Utah State is better than Arizona State and Houston and about as good as UNLV.
The Aggies’ only two blemishes so far have come on the road against ranked teams (78-72 loss to then-No. 23/now No. 15 BYU; 68-51 loss to then-No. 16/now No. 13 Georgetown). And while Utah State failed to cash in its first two WAC contests – easy wins over Hawaii and San Jose State – they were laying 17½ and 20 points, respectively, in those games. Tonight, they’re favored by just a handful of baskets.
Utah State has won seven of nine meetings with Nevada since the 2006-07 campaign (8-1 ATS), including back-to-back victories of 79-72 (overtime) and 72-62 in their last two trips to Reno (and the Wolf Pack fielded much better teams the last three years). Going back further, the Aggies have walked out of Reno with the cash four of the last five times they’ve visited. Make it five of six as Utah State rides its defense (which allows just 58.9 points per game) to a double-digit win over Nevada (which gives up 72.4 ppg).
2♦ UTAH STATE
Karl Garrett
Richmond (-5') at LA SALLE
For your free play this Saturday, take Richmond in college basketball to come through with the road win and cover at La Salle.
Right now the La Salle Explorers are in a free-fall, as the Philly crew come into this home date against a very underrated Richmond with just 1 win in their last 6 games, and that came in a non-lined affair against Binghamton
Richmond is already 12-4 this year, and they have won the last pair and 3 of the last 4 meetings against La Salle.
With the Explorers just 6-16 against the spread their last 22 lined affairs, and the Spiders a money-turning 14-5-1 their last 20 road games, I say stick with the percentages, and play Richmond minus a few hoops in the City of Brotherly Love this Saturday afternoon.
2♦ RICHMOND
Bobby Maxwell
Stanford (+11') at ARIZONA
For my comp selection, two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions meet tonight in Tucson, Ariz. when Stanford arrives to take on Arizona in Pac-10 play. The Cardinal have opened 2-0 in conference play while the Wildcats lost to Oregon State and then edged Cal on Thursday.
Arizona doesn’t seem to have the fire everyone thought they would play with. The Wildcats are getting good play from Derrick Williams but the rest of the players are erratic and they have shown a tendency to struggle against zone defenses.
Stanford was impressive in a 55-41 win over Arizona State on Thursday, holding the Sun Devils to 26.9 percent shooting in the second half. So this Cardinal team won its opener with offense, putting up 82 points and shooting 72 percent in the second half against Cal, then won its second game with defense. Today, they’ll continue to play the tough defense against the Wildcats.
Arizona is on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 1-4 in Pac-10 play and 1-4 after a non-cover. This is a young Stanford team, but if they can handle the pressure and the partisan Wildcats’ crowd early, this game is coming down to the wire. The Cardinal might not win it outright, but they are keeping it close. Grab the points and play Stanford.
2♦ STANFORD
Stephen Nover
South Alabama (+4) at FLORIDA INTL
South Alabama started the season slow going 2-5. But the Jaguars have won five of their past seven games. In their last four lined contests, the Jaguars are 3-1 ATS.
The Jaguars have the necessary depth and diversity to play well on the road with a strong bench. I'll back them in this spot taking points against a bad team.
South Alabama has a rebounding edge on Florida International averaging six more boards per game. The Jaguars also lead the Sun Belt Conference in blocked shots and rank better than Florida International in assists-to-turnover ratio.
Freshman center Augustine Rubit of South Alabama leads the conference in rebounding and junior guard Allyn Cooks ranks No. 1 in the league in assists-to-turnovers.
The Jaguars also are getting production from senior Tim Williams, one of the better players in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars are averaging 83 points in their seven victories this season.
Florida International really struggled during December losing five of six games while being outscored by 9.5 points per game. The Panthers shot only 40.7 percent from the floor.
The Panthers are giving up 74.8 points a game, which ranks them 302nd in the country and last in the Sun Belt.
2♦ SOUTH ALABAMA
Derek Mancini
St. John's (+5') at NOTRE DAME
Tougher than expected match up here, as the surging Red Storm should not be underestimated. They've won 5 in a row (4-1 ATS), including wins against Northwestern, at WVU, at Providence, and they saved their most impressive win for their last one - vs Georgetown. My point is St John's has proven their mettle, and against a short-handed Irish team, I don't see much more than a couple baskets separating these two schools.
Speaking of short-handed, do not overlook the injury to Carleton Scott. His absence forced the Irish to go to a 3-guard look against Connecticut, and even though they won that game, going small against the Red Storm only works in their favor. Also, the fact the Irish played with only a 7-man rotation in their last one has to raise some eyebrows, because St. John's defense will test their endurance tonight.
Both teams are playing rock-solid defense of late, but one thing that is not getting enough attention has been the Red Storm's efficiency on offense, shooting a little over 52% in their L5 games! They're led by Dwight Hardy, who's caught fire of late, and heads a smart senior-laden team that's getting far too little respect here. That kind of efficiency and overall smart basketball is what propels them to the cover tonight. The fact the Red Storm s is 8-2 ATS in their L10 road games doesn't hurt either! Take St. John's plus the points over Notre Dame Saturday.
2♦ ST. JOHN'S
Chris Jordan
San Diego at LOYOLA MARYMOUNT (-12')
I am taking the home team in this one and will gladly lay the points.
Had Pepperdine the other night, and look how easy that less-than mediocre team performed.
It's all about siding against San Diego, which hurts to say since I know several people who are attending that school, and are like family to me. But the basketball Toreros are in a rebuilding year and won't be seeing much success against any of the teams in the West Coast Conference, top to bottom.
The Lions won't have any trouble with the Toreros, who are painfully showing their growing pains the first run through in conference play - especially on the road.
San Diego can't feel comfortable at all right now, as this will mark its sixth straight road game, dating back to Dec. 22. The Toreros haven't played at home since Dec. 13. They won't be back on their own court til Jan. 13. Ouch! Until then, I'll continue to look for value against them.
Roar with the Lions, lay the points.
3♦ LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Derek Mancini,
New Orleans at SEATTLE (+10)
Mind you, we're keeping this play small, but overall I like the Seahawks to cover at home this afternoon. Say what you will about their 7-9 record and all that, but fact is Seattle made it to the postseason, and they're being set up to play the underdog role like never before. No one believes they deserve to be here, and that's an extremely strong motivator. Look for them to play the "us against the world" card, and I suspect it'll work given the enormous spread.
Although we can all agree the Saints have edge thru the air, New Orleans-backers should be mighty worried about their ground game. An inability to effectively run the ball spells trouble (given the spread). Also, despite season long struggles to run the ball, the Seahawks showed some life on the ground against the Rams last week. Lynch looked halfway decent, and Forsett had a big 21 yard run, and all that with Whitehurst at QB. If Seattle can establish even a modicum of a run game, they will easily cover here.
Finally, there's the intagibles. Although they've played well away from the Dome, make no mistake, the Saints are a team built to play indoors. Getting it done on a cold day in Seattle is outside of their comfort zone. Not to mention, if there's one place the Seahawks are moderately effective it's at Qwest Field, going 5-3 SUATS there this season. And lastly, the Saints are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs an opponent with a losing record... Not exactly a lock, but a trend worth noting. Long story short, I'm calling for a small play on Seattle, as they pull together in the face of adversity and keep this one within the number.
1♦ SEATTLE
Joel Tyson,
N.Y. Jets at INDIANAPOLIS
I also have a free play for this Saturday on the total in the Jets-Colts contest.
12-4 over the total this year for the Jets. 10-5-1 over the total this year for the Colts, including overs in 5 of their last 7 games.
I have to believe we are looking at another high-scoring game tonight when New York visits Lucas Oil Stadium for their game against Indianapolis.
Last year the teams combined to hit the over mark in their AFC Championship meeting in this very same venue, and with the New York defense a little leaky with the loss of safety Jim Leonhard, I expect we will see a few more points on the board once again this Saturday night.
Weather obviously not a factor in this one, and in the controlled climate I feel that the offenses will have the decided advantage.
Go over in the Jets-Colts game tonight.
4♦ OVER
Wunderdog
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Kansas State +1
Kansas State will put its No. 17 ranking on the line today when they travel to 12-2 Oklahoma State. Jacob Pullen leads four double-digit scorers for the Wildcats and a deep bench that produces points and wears teams out. The Cowboys win/loss record looks rather impressive, but they have had only two top level games and failed miserably vs. Gonzaga, losing by 21, and to Virginia Tech by 5 points, so the record is not indicative of what this team is. Kansas State went into Oklahoma and Baylor last year and came away with wins, so they certainly are up to the task on the road in Big-12 action. I'll take Kansas State.
John Ryan
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7
5* graded play on the Atlanta Hawks as they take on the Indiana Pacers set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by eight or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-6 ATS for 85% winners since 1996. Play against road teams revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off three or more consecutive road wins. Simulator shows a high probability that the Pacers will score between 87 and 92 points. Pacers are 29-14 ATS when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last three seasons. Atlanta is a perimeter based offense and as a result they do not draw a high number of fouls. The Pacers have not faired well against similar teams noting they are 12-23 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws per game over the last two seasons. Take Atlanta.