Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, January 9

Raphael Esparza

North Dakota State (-3) over Jacksonville State

This play is from the NCAA Division I Football Championship Game. The North Dakota Bison come into this Championship game winners eight straight, and their defense has been outstanding as of late. The Bison are coming off a big victory over Richmond, 33-7, and again the Bison defense ruled that game. In the Bison's last four games their defense is only giving up an average of 6.5 PPG, yes under a touchdown in 4 games. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense has been putting up points at will, and they are coming off an easy victory over Sam Houston 62-10 and they have scored over 40 points in five straight games. Originally I thought take the points with the Gamecocks, but I see defense winning this game and I see the Bison winning by two field goals.

Indian Cowboy

Florida over LSU

This weekend you will see the LSU Tigers hit the road to face the Florida Gators in College Basketball. Michael White's Gators are a team that we are very high on since the start of the year as always a first-year coach has a lot to prove and their intensity from game to game is very strong. Coach White has huge shoes to fill in Billy Donovan's, but his team has been up to the task this year. This is a team that is a top-25 squad, top on defense, top-20 in turnover margin, and their only losses are to MSU, Miami, Purdue and Florida State. Note, this team just beat Georgia by 14 points at home, which is not easy to do and given this team's defensive efficiency, this spells disaster for a LSU team who is highly reliant on Ben Simmons. Look for Florida to double Simmons and let someone else try to beat them as LSU is outside the top 250 in 3-point field goals and outside the top 200 when it comes to free throw shooting as well. Florida has one of the brightest coaching staffs in the country, and they will get it done with a solid gameplan against LSU.

Jack Jones

Kansas City Chiefs -3

The Kansas City Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL entering the 2016 playoffs. They have gone 10-0 in their last 10 games overall while winning behind a dominant defense that has given up 22 or fewer points in 12 straight games, including 17 or less in nine of its last 11. This is certainly the team that nobody wants to play heading into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans had a fine season and also rebounded nicely from a slow start by winning seven of its final nine games this season, including three in a row. But the Texans have mostly feasted on a soft schedule as they play in the weakest division in football in the AFC South. The last three wins came against Matt Hasselbeck and the Colts, Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, and Blake Bortles and the Jaguars. The Texans are the best team in this division, but that’s not saying much.

In fact, eight of the Texans’ nine wins this season have come against non-playoff teams. Conversely, the Texans have gone 1-3 against playoff teams this season. That includes a 20-27 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 1 this season. The others were a 7-point loss at Carolina, a 21-point home loss to New England, and a 4-point road win at Cincinnati. You know they’ve played an easy schedule when they’ve only faced four playoff teams.

The Chiefs have played the much more difficult schedule this season. They have had to play seven games against playoff teams this season, yet they have managed to post two more wins than the Texans at 11-5 compared to 9-7. I think they’re certainly the more battle-tested team heading into the postseason, and they have a lot more playoff experience than these Texans.

That experience will shine through as the Chiefs will be highly motivated to capture their first playoff victory since 1994. Alex Smith has played a handful of playoff games dating back to his time with the 49ers, and he has other guys around him with playoff experience like receiver Jeremy Maclin. This will be the first playoff start for QB Brian Hoyer, and he has hardly any playoff experience around him. The one guy with the most experience is All-Pro tackle Duane Brown, but unfortunately he suffered a season-ending quad injury in the regular season finale and will miss the playoffs.

Brown’s replacement is going to have his hands full against two of the best pass rushers in the NFL. The Chiefs are expected to have a healthy Justin Houston back in the lineup. Houston led the league in sacks last year and is an absolute force. Tamba Hali is another edge rusher who has had a very nice season. These two will be in the backfield all game long, disrupting Brian Hoyer and forcing him into mistakes.

The Chiefs have actually played their best football on the road this season. They are scoring 29.0 points per game and giving up 18.9 points per game on the road, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game. That’s one of the best road differentials in the NFL, and it’s a big reason why I’m not afraid to lay a field goal with the Chiefs in this one.

Kansas City is 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons, winning by 16.4 points per game in this spot. The Chiefs are 14-5 ATS in road games against AFC opponents over the last three years. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.

SPORTS WAGERS

CINCINNATI +131 over Pittsburgh

The Steelers put up a lot of crooked numbers offensively this season and this market loves offense and they love the Steelers. Since recovering from multiple injuries earlier in the year, Ben Roethlisberger’s 17 of 21 touchdown passes have come in the past nine weeks. While the Steelers needed some help to get into the dance, now that they are here, they've become a popular Super Bowl pick for many pundits. They point to the fact that this team rode the six-seed to the Super Bowl 10 years ago. We're here to tell you that while it's a nice narrative, it doesn't matter. Pittsburgh’s air attack should ready to go but the ground game is another story. Running back DeAngelo Williams has filled in admirably for the injured Le'veon Bell but he himself was banged up in last week's must win over the Browns and the team is preparing as if Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman will handle the backfield duties. That speaks volumes to us and strongly suggests that Williams will be one the sidelines. In their previous match-up with Cincinnati just under a month ago, Williams ran for 77 yards and two touchdowns. The Steelers rolled that day as a one-point road dog but the Bengals had to overcome the loss of Andy Dalton early in that game and it proved to be too much to ask. These two teams split their previous meetings this season and Steelers now must travel to Paul Brown Stadium for one hell of a rubber match.

Despite the loss of Andy Dalton, the Bengals were able to hang on the last three weeks of the season and win another AFC North title. They went 2-1 straight up and against the spread in their final three games after a feisty Week 14 fight with the Steelers both on and off the field. McCarron has managed the game well since taking over as the starter and his swagger has allowed him to play with confidence without trying to take over the game. He hasn't thrown an interception since hitting the top spot on the depth chart while leading 4 TD drives. It might not be sexy but Kathrine Webb's husband just might be the steady hand this team needs as they try to break a six-game playoff losing streak. The Bengals last post season victory was in 1991, four months after Raymond Anthony McCarron was born.

These two teams hate each other and are among sports’ most bitter rivals. The Shield even issued warning to both clubs to keep it clean on Saturday. While the Steelers have all that market appeal, the fact is they needed Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets to implode late in Buffalo just to get in. Big Ben's numbers have been big on the stat sheet but he's struggled against the Bengals this season throwing just one touchdown to four interceptions. He hasn't been great down the stretch either, failing to throw a TD in two of his last four games. He's also thrown at least one interception in nine of his last 10 starts this season. Cincy might be without their Pro Bowl pivot but we're not so sure that's a bad thing. Have you seen Dalton play in the playoffs? Andy Dalton’s brutal playoff performances speak for themselves. With AJ McCarron taking snaps, the story this week hasn't been about Dalton's playoff failures, it's all about the Steelers making another run at a Super Bowl. The public and the marketplace have overreacted to decades of domination by Pittsburgh over this host and the absence of Howdy Doody. The Steelers are favored on the road against the AFC North champions and that's fine with us. We get the much better defense and strong running attack and a QB that hasn't been prone to make mistakes. In playoffs, great defense with a running game usually emerges victorious and that's where the biggest mismatch in this event is and it heavily favors the host. Pittsburgh does not deserve to be favored on the road, as this Cinci outfit is just tough to beat, and we are not interested in giving it home points. Bengals outright is the call.

HOUSTON +3 over Kansas City

The Texans have held five of their past eight opponents to 10 points or less. One of those opponents was the then undefeated Bengals (with Andy Dalton) on a Monday night in Cinci. Another one of those opponents was Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense. Finally, in the final week of the season when the game meant virtually nothing, Houston held the high-flying Jags offense to six points. Houston’s last loss was against New England. They won seven of their last nine games. Indeed the Texans played in a weak division and played some weak teams but this is a defense that has faced Blake Bortles (x2), Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck when Luck was healthy. Facing Alex Smith is a giant step down in class for this outstanding defense and as long as the Texans don’t lose the turnover battle by a significant margin, they should emerge victorious. They are wrongly billed here as the pooch.

The Chiefs are favored here for a couple of reasons. First and foremost they have won 10 straight games and that has heavy market influence. Secondly, nobody watches the Texans because they are not a big market team and they get very little media coverage, which means they are unrecognizable. The Texans have gone through four QB’s this season and we’re pretty sure that the average fan (that doesn’t play fantasy) couldn’t name two of them. In regards to the Chiefs ridiculous 10-game winning streak, they beat two teams during that span that played over .500. One of those games was against the Steelers in Kansas City with Landry Jones in for Ben Roethlisberger. The Chiefs had a 3-point lead with six minutes to go before a late TD made it a 10-point win. Pretty it was not. The other victory against a winning club occurred against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in Week 10. That was the week after K.C.’s bye so Andy Reid had two weeks to prepare and it was also the game that Manning played like he was 60-years old. Manning would not play again until the final game of the year last week against the Chargers. This is a K.C. team that scored 17 points on Cleveland two weeks ago and had to stave off the Browns the entire game. This is a team that lost at home to Chicago as a 9-point favorite and that scored 10 points at home against San Diego four weeks ago as a 10-point favorite.

Kansas City’s strategy is to pray for turnovers and YAC yards. Alex Smith will throw a two-yard pass and then K.C. will hope that the ball carrier breaks tackles. Smith has thrown for under 200 yards in five straight games. His yards-per-attempt can be measured on a child’s foot. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs had an incredible 23-7 turnover edge during their 10-game winning streak. PLEASE don’t try and make an argument that good teams create turnovers. That’s complete hogwash. Turnovers are a result of pure luck, good or bad and that hypothesis can be proven by looking up turnover ratios the past however long you want. Every year it’s a different list. When teams stayed together for years back in the 70’s and 80’s, the same team could be first in turnovers one year and 20th or worse the next year. However, the top rushing, passing and defenses always remained the same with little variance. You could throw the 30 teams in a blender and spit out a more consistent list every year of where teams rank in terms of turnover ratio. Most of K.C.’s victories over the past 10 games were due to the opposition not being able hold onto the ball. If you want to rely on that luck to continue, that would be up to you but in no way does this Chiefs team deserve to be a 3-point favorite on the road. The Chiefs are the league’s straight man, here to take a pie to the face for your enjoyment. Being a Chief means you never get to be the hero. You don’t get the girl. You don’t get any of the good lines. You are a minor obstacle for the main characters to overcome on their path to glory. You will always be a supporting player in some other player’s story. You are “The Baxter”. Andy Reid will make sure of it. We’re calling the Texans outright but will gladly take the points.

AC DINERO

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3

Division matchups in the playoffs seem to negate home field advantage a bit. Here we have an unusual situation where the road team is the favorite. The main reason for that is Cincinnati starting QB Andy Dalton isn’t expected to play, which means 2nd year QB AJ McCarron will make his first postseason start. That could be good or bad. Good because he probably doesn’t feel the pressure of not winning a playoff game that every other player on the roster feels. Bad in the sense that he is only making his 4th career start in a do or die situation. Pittsburgh is getting a lot of public action. They are a high profile team and they have a potent offense, led by an elite QB, that many feel can make a deep run in the playoffs. I’m going to buck that trend and back the Bengals at home. The Steeler defense is soft against the pass and they aren’t great on 3rd down. Cincinnati is a good 3rd down team. Their one weakness is stopping the run, but the Steelers may be down to their 3rd tailback. I’ll take the home dog in a spot like this almost every time

Randall the Handle

Chiefs (11-5) at Texans (9-7)

Kansas City’s well-documented 1-5 start turned into an 11-5 finish. No team has more momentum heading into these playoffs than Andy Reid’s club. Perhaps the slow start is concerning to some but, in reality, four of the five losses were to teams that are in these playoffs. Three of them were road games in Green Bay, Cincinnati and at upstart Minnesota. A miraculous home loss to Denver saw the Broncos score two touchdowns in nine seconds to steal a win. The one other defeat was an 18-17 setback to the Bears, in which the Chiefs led 17-3 going into the third quarter until RB Jamaal Charles went down (ultimately for the season) and the air came out of K.C.’s balloon. Kansas City’s lone win in the troubled start was a 27-20 decision on this very field in a game that saw Houston starter Brian Hoyer get pulled for backup Ryan Mallett. Since then, the Chiefs have reeled off 10 straight wins utilizing a balanced running attack, steady play from QB Alex Smith and a strong defence. The Texans are a team that primarily relies on defence and, while their numbers may support a solid season, their body of work leaves much to be desired. Capturing the AFC South is not a selling feature. Nor is a three-game winning streak to finish the year when all three opponents were from this wretched division. The loss of Houston left tackle Duane Brown is a significant blow as Kansas City’s pass rush should exploit Brown’s replacement all afternoon. Difference in class shows up here. TAKING: CHIEFS -3

Steelers (10-6) at Bengals (12-4)

An obvious narrative here is the quarterback situation as two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger will square off against novice AJ McCarron. Of course, there is some merit to that matchup, but Cincinnati’s overall roster is superior to Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers have Antonio Brown to throw to and a mediocre supporting cast after that. They may have lost starting running back D’Angelo Williams after he went down last week. That’s a problem. The Bengals have an array of offensive weapons with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and a pair of dangerous runners. McCarron has already faced the Steelers, but that was when he was forced into action when Andy Dalton was hurt early. Under the circumstances, McCarron performed admirably in a 33-20 defeat. The young QB went 22-of-32 for 280 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions but has not thrown once since, including a game at Denver against the league’s top defence. Defensively, Cincy allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this year with 279 and was also second-best in touchdown passes allowed with only 18 through the air. Let’s also not forget where this game is being played as the Bengals have quietly been one of the top home clubs in recent years, having lost just five of past 26 here. Besides, should we really fear Pittsburgh? They blew an important game to the depleted Ravens two weeks ago and did not look so great against woeful Cleveland this past Sunday. Give us the points, please. TAKING: BENGALS +3

AC DINERO

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3

Division matchups in the playoffs seem to negate home field advantage a bit. Here we have an unusual situation where the road team is the favorite. The main reason for that is Cincinnati starting QB Andy Dalton isn’t expected to play, which means 2nd year QB AJ McCarron will make his first postseason start. That could be good or bad. Good because he probably doesn’t feel the pressure of not winning a playoff game that every other player on the roster feels. Bad in the sense that he is only making his 4th career start in a do or die situation. Pittsburgh is getting a lot of public action. They are a high profile team and they have a potent offense, led by an elite QB, that many feel can make a deep run in the playoffs. I’m going to buck that trend and back the Bengals at home. The Steeler defense is soft against the pass and they aren’t great on 3rd down. Cincinnati is a good 3rd down team. Their one weakness is stopping the run, but the Steelers may be down to their 3rd tailback. I’ll take the home dog in a spot like this almost every time

Jim Feist

Wizards vs. Magic
Play: Magic -3½

Washington has not played well on the road and this is the second of a back to back spot after hosting tough Toronto last night. They have been stumbling badly the last two weeks, too. The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on no days rest. Orlando is home and strong on defense, No. 9 in the NBA in points allowed. They are rested and the Magic are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And when these teams clash the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. P

ASA

Florida -3½

This is a VERY tough spot for a VERY young team. LSU starts 3 freshmen and they are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky on Tuesday night. For this inexperienced team to now travel and keep their heads on straight will be tough. Especially against a formidable foe who will come with some passion here after losing @ Tennessee earlier this week. The Gators have 5 losses on the season but 3 of those setbacks were against teams currently ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 10 teams (Michigan State, Purdue, and Miami FL). Florida is 6-1 at home this year with all wins coming by more than 10 points and their lone loss coming by 2-points to rival Florida State. That was a game the Gators shot very poorly – 40% overall and just 4 of 25 from 3-point land (16%) – and still had a good shot to win. They face an up and down LSU team that already has 5 losses to teams ranked 68th or lower. The Tigers have played 3 true road games and won only 1 of those. The freshmen dominated LSU team will also be playing one of the best defenses they’ll face all season as Florida ranks 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency. A very focused Florida will play well here and roll over a “disinterested” LSU team that will still be basking in the glow of their Kentucky win.

Marc Lawrence

Brooklyn vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Edges - Pistons: 34-10 SU and 25-16-3 ATS as a host in this series. Nets: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS after Magic; and 2-26 SU and 4-23 ATS as a dog before Spurs. With the Pistons looking to avenge an 87-83 loss as 5-point favorites at New Jersey the last week in November, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.

DAVE COKIN

PACIFIC AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
PLAY: PACIFIC +4.5

The non-conference portion of the season was not kind to Pacific. The Tigers were shorthanded and inexperienced and Ron Verlin’s Tigers ran into all kinds of trouble finishing games. So while that 3-11 ledger is pretty ugly, this team has actually been pretty competitive, and I’m expecting Pacific to hang tough tonight with Loyola Marymount.

These teams have some striking similarities in the side by side comparisons. The one big difference is the turnover category, where the Lions are vastly superior to the Tigers. LMU has done a great job of protecting the ball while also forcing plenty of turnovers. That’s a concern here to be sure. But aside from that, it’s actually Pacific with more edges in the four factor comparison.

The WCC has one team playing at an extremely high level, and that’s Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga is probably down a notch right now as they have struggled to get consistent play from the guards. BYU is typical BYU, very good with the ball, not so hot without it. You can pretty much throw a blanket over the rest of this league, and that means a conference where there figure to be loads of tight games that are decided by one or two possessions.

I would think there’s a very good chance of just that taking place tonight. I don’t think there’s any question Loyola is going to want this one badly, as they’re 0-4 to start the conference season. But that also means a bit of pressure to get off the schneid, and you can make an argument that the underdog Tigers are in slightly better form right now. I’ll take the available number with Pacific this evening.

Sleepyj

Chicago +2

I'll take a shot here with the Bulls on the road...Atlanta is always a tough a out at home, but i feel the Bulls can hurt the Hawks down low in this one.....The Bulls have gotten hot in the last 6 games and the wins show that..The Bulls have won 6 in a row, but 5 of the 6 games came at home...This is the first meeting this year, but last year the Hawks went 2-1 Vs. the Bulls...Bulls got the last game of the regular season last year.....Those teams from last year though are a bit different..No DeMarre Carroll for the Hawks..Enter in McDermott and Portis for the Bulls...Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol are playing great right now..It seems as if everything is clicking for the Bulls.....The Bulls are the top rebounding team in the league and the Hawks rank at the bottom..This is the one area i think the Bulls can grab extra possessions in this game...Bulls defense has been much better after a slow start to the season..Bulls are really coming together and they look like a scary match-up for any team....On paper the Bulls just look like the better team here..Hawks -2 at home looks TGTBT.....Bulls are 6-7 on the road this year and i'm sure it's been expressed how much they need to step up outside the United Center...I'll take the Bulls +2 the basket here on the road..This should be a great game, but in the end i'll take Butler and Gasol to come up big in ATL.

Rob Vinciletti

Baylor vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -7½

The Cyclones have a red circle alert on their calendars for this one. Last year Baylor came in here and put an end to their 21 game home winning streak. Iowa ST has won 51 of the last 65 here and has double revenge. They are 4-1 ats at home with a total od 155 to 160 and have covered 4 of 5 vs teams who average 77 or more points per game. In the series they have covered 9 of 11 here vs Baylor. The Golden Bears have failed to cover every time the last few years vs a team who they beat twice last season. Baylor has failed to cover 5 of 6 if the total is 150 to 160, all 3 vs teams who average 77 or more points and allow 86 points per game on the road, where they are 0-3 to the spread in lined game. Look for Iowa St to get the win and cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Chip Chirimbes

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
Play: Mississippi State +7

Arkansas was a best bet winner for us last time out in over time against Vanderbilt but 'we' learned a lot about the Razorbacks that night and it wasn't all good. Meanwhile, Mississippi State who had won three straight were beaten on the last possession by Texas A&M 61-60 and have shown improvement each time out. They held the Aggies to 30.6 percent shooting but just couldn't convert when needed, they will grow from they performance and have a chance to grap their first SEC win of the season.

Chip Chirimbes's Featured Package