Scott Spreitzer
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -4½
The Pitt Panthers are off to a 13-1 SU start, and without taking too much credit away from Jamie Dixon's troops, the fact is, the schedule hasn't been overwhelming. Their biggest step-up game thus far ended in a 72-59 loss at home to Purdue. Pitt suffered a rough shooting night and couldn't overcome A.J. Hammons at the other end. And believe it or not, even though we're into the third month of the season and Pittsburgh's 15th game, this contest marks the Panthers first true road game. South Bend is not an easy place for visitors and we look for the Irish to pick up what would be their biggest win of the season. Notre Dame is an excellent shooting team, ranked 8th in accuracy in the nation in all games, including 52% at home. The Irish average nearly 11 more rebounds per game than they allow at Purcell Pavilion and own a 1.72 assist/turnover ratio at home, averaging 17 assists per game, while committing less than 10 turnovers per game. And again, while this is Pitt's first roadie of the season, they are just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games. We'll recommend a play on Notre Dame minus the points as they look to extend their ACC run to 7-1 ATS.
Dave Price
Northern Illinois PK
Northern Illinois is one of the most improved teams in the country this season and a real threat to win the MAC. The Huskies are off to a blistering 12-2 start this year with their only losses coming on the road to a pair of Power 5 schools in Missouri (71-78) and Ohio State (54-67). That game against Ohio State was close until the final couple minutes, too. But the Huskies are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 21.7 points per game. You can see why I love them here at a pick 'em at home against Eastern Michigan. This is an EMU team that recently lost at home to North Florida 77-82 and lacks anything resembling a quality win. The Huskies are 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with the Eagles. NIU is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 meetings with EMU overall. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Huskies are 22-7-4 ATS in their last 33 MAC games.
Will Rogers
Chicago at Atlanta
Play: Under 209
The Chicago Bulls are coming into this meeting with the Atlanta Hawks riding a six-game winning streak. The Hawks broke out of a funk with a 126-98 win against the 76ers Thursday, and they've seen the total go over in nine of their last 10 overall. The total for tonight's game looks a little inflated however, and I think the value lies with a play on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Chicago Trending Under - The under is 24-11 in Bulls last 35 road games versus teams with a winning home record, and Chicago has failed to reach the total in 12 of it's last 16 versus Atlanta.
2. Previous Meetings - The total has gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, and tonight's number is higher than it was in any of those games.
3. X-Factor - Derrick Rose returned to the lineup on Tuesday, and totaled 34 points in wins over Milwaukee and Boston. He also had seven turnovers and went 0-for-5 from beyond the arc in those games.
Jesse Schule
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +7.5
The Kansas Jayhawks are the top ranked team in the country, and they are coming off an incredible triple-OT win over Oklahoma. They come into tonight's game at Texas Tech laying a bunch of points on the road, and I think the Jayhawks are due for a let down here. The Red Raiders are coming off a 76-69 loss at Iowa State, but they are 11-2 overall and have yet to lose at home. Bookmakers haven't given Texas Tech much respect, and they've been one of the best bets so far this season, covering the spread in eight straight overall and 10 of their last 12 versus teams with a winning record. They've averaged 78.1 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting while going 8-0 at home, which is significantly better than the 70 points Kansas has averaged on the road. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 versus BIG12 teams, and I think they are asked to cover a few too many points on the road here. While they have won 10 straight versus Texas Tech since 2011, they've failed to cover in two of their last three at Lubbock.
Dave Essler
Georgia Tech +6
I know - I know - fading Virginia? We do know UVA isn't quite as good (defensively) as last season and we do know that Tech is better than last season. The tipping point for me here is that last season Tech went TO UVA and lost - more importantly they scored 28 points - for the GAME. If that isn't motivation I don't know what is. Without going deep into stats, Tech played the Tar Heels tough and the Panthers tough, both on the road, and they COULD have been looking to this game so I might have expected them to not play as well in those two recent road games. UVA lost to V-Tech so they're somewhat vulnerable, especially given that they've got Miami Tuesday at home. Tech is VERY experienced (see last season, they were all there) and the best part of their defense is defending the perimeter, which is obviously where UVA plays. Tech has been great at protecting the ball, not getting shots blocked, at home, getting points. I'd put UVA on upset alert here.
Brad Wilton
Think the points will be just enough to work in this Virginia Tech-Duke ACC battle on Saturday afternoon.
You knew that Buzz Williams was too good of a coach to let his Hokies stay down too long, and with wins over conference rivals NC State, and Virginia their last two times out, the Blue Devils better be on guard in this meeting.
Not saying the Hokies have enough to pull off the outright upset, but they did force overtime the last time they faced the Blue Devils last February in a cover in Blacksburg, and Tech also covered in their last visit to Durham, and have covered in 4 of the last 6 series meetings overall in the underdog role.
Duke looked strong earlier this week in their road win at Wake Forest, but that only gives us a little added line value with the Gobblers plus the generous impost.
V-Tech to continue their solid play with a competitive effort at Duke on Saturday.
Take the points.
3* VIRGINIA TECH
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Dayton as the road favorite at La Salle.
Revenge game for the Flyers who were somehow beaten by a basket last March at Tom Gola Arena, 55-53 by the Explorers to snap a 6-1 series run both straight up and against the spread by the Flyers.
Series history gets back to the norm here, as this La Salle team is woefully thin, and are riding 7 game losing streak that has seen them go just 1-5 against the spread in their 6 lined games.
Dayton brings in a 5 game winning streak that includes a 30-point win their last time out against UMass, the same UMass team that beat La Salle last weekend.
The Flyers have already posted the upset win at Vanderbilt, so I am sure a stop on La Salle's home court will not faze them this afternoon.
Lay the wood with the Flyers.
3* DAYTON
Chris Jordan
Now that the big win is out of the way, the UCLA Bruins can take the court with a lot less pressure and score a comfortable rout of the Arizona State Sun Devils. Thursday night the Bruins knocked off the Arizona Wildcats, so of course I expect them to score the sweep of Arizona teams.
UCLA’s victory over the Wildcats was a nice rebound after the Bruins lost their first two Pac-12 games on the road last weekend, at Washington and Washington State. The Bruins roll into this one sporting an 8-1 home record this season.
UCLA’s five starters have averaged at least 10.0 points per game, with junior guard Bryce Alford producing a team-leading 17.4 points per game, which ranks fourth in the Pac 12.
Junior guard Isaac Hamilton, who is shooting 48.8 percent from the field this season, provides a nice compliment to Alford, as he's scored in double figures in each of the Bruins’ last 12 contests.
Count this as a revenge game, too, as UCLA dropped a 68-66 decision at Arizona State in last year's lone meeting. The Bruins have won seven of the last nine meetings.
Lay the home chalk in this one.
5* UCLA
Scott Delaney
My free play is Montana State, once again, after I made money with the Bobcats two nights ago against Sacramento State. Tonight, Montana State faces a similar opponent in Portland State, so I expect the Bobcats to bring the same approach and get the job done.
Montana State was impressive on Thursday, using a staunch defensive effort, though coach Brian Fish wasn't pleased. The Bobcats reportedly worked on their defense in yesterday's walk through, and that's an even better sign, in showing us they were not satisfied with what was a solid effort.
The Bobcats have forced double-digit turnovers in back-to-back games, and in those last two contests have limited their opponents to less than 42 percent shooting and 73 points.
Let's count on Montana State to shut down Portland State tonight. Lay the cheap number.
4* MONTANA STATE
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Cal Santa Barbara (+8') at Hawai'i
The STORYLINE in this game today - Suddenly, the Santa Barbara Gauchos have won four in a row and have some momentum for their Big West Conference opener at Hawai'i. And I'm not too worried about taking the underdog on the road in this one, as the Gauchos have been used to living out of a travel bag. UCSB has played 10 of its 13 games away from home.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor for this game is Michael Bryson, who led UCSB to its first road win over a Pac-12 opponent in 12 years, an 83-78 win at Washington. For his efforts, he was named Big West Men's Basketball Player of the Week. Bryson followed that game by blistering Seattle for a career-high 36 points in an 88-50 rout. He sank a school record nine 3-pointers and finished the game 11-for-20 from the field. He also snatched 13 rebounds to complete his third career double-double.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Gauchos spent 17 of the final 21 days of December on the road and, until their Jan. 2 game versus Point Loma, they hadn't played a game at the Thunderdome in a month. To say they'll be in a comfort zone is an understatement.
1* CAL SANTA BARBARA
TONY GEORGE
Steelers vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals +3
You have to look at this game from a handicapping perspective. You have the better team at home, with the better defense and the better running game catching points. The Bengals split the regular season with the Steelers and the key element in this game with all the TV networks is the fact Big Ben is playing against AJ McCarron. Well Big Ben is on an island, and as talented as he his, he is at a disadvantage despite a prolific passing attack.
The other determining factor is Vegas oddsmakers know that the Steelers are going to get the Lions share of public action, and they surely are not going to make them an underdog here. Yes Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs as a head coach, and yes the Bengals players also watch TV and read the paper and they are no doubt tired of the narrative here, which is they cannot win a post season game despite 10 wins or better in each of the past 4 years.
Is Big Ben and his WR unit going to hook up and score points? Well, yes they are but with RB Williams out, Pitt poses little threat running the ball to balance the attack and keep the defense honest, and the Bengals front 4 are going to get after him and you will see blitzes all day. The Bengals in fact from top to bottom have one of the most talented rosters in the AFC, and they are at home and although Andy Dalton is out, McCarron has plenty of weapons at his disposal against the 28th ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Cincy has a great 1-2 punch at RB.
Pitt has played poorly the past 3 weeks, struggling against Cleveland of all people last week late into the game, and with Big Ben throwing multiple picks in each of those games, and lest we forget Pitt lost to the Ravens of all people in a must win scenario at that point. With all the focus around Marvin Lewis not pulling off a post season win here, I simply look at the teams, matchups, and stats and I have only one way to look here on a conventional handicap, and that is the better team at home getting points.
BRAD DIAMOND
Elon / /Hofstra Under 166
Basis is the aforementioned line, the higher it goes the more valuable the opportunity. Both teams are winning units 10-5 Hofstra and 11-5 Elon. The Pride bounce off a SU road loss 72-61 Charleston, similar Elon shows off a road downer vs. James Madison 79-73. SOS clearly favors the Pride and with the current dollars on the Strip would prefer, if I was going into the ATS construct. Remember both schools are in the wide open CAA, Hofstra plays 7-8 deep with 5 DD scorers, netting a combined 68 points a game, but lack quality depth, utilizing a three guard offense. The first 6 play force 22+ minutes a game at least. Hofstra has faced the 160’s range on the total board three times…1-2 UNDER. Elon is somewhat unique when you check out their starting “positions” as it appears they play 5 guards, but use technically a 3 guard swing set. So, they will shoot from anywhere and often. They possess three DD scorers, almost five to be exact (9.6, 9.6) play 8 deep. At home you would imagine knowing the floor balance Elon would have an immediate edge, but since the two have “like” personalities. Most likely, it will foster a sloppy game until one of the combatants decides to “slow it down” and play smart. Elon has not faced a 160's range this season. With the huge total, suggest going under!
Power Sports
Toronto vs. San Jose
Pick: Under 5.5
It's an afternoon start Saturday in San Jose as Toronto comes to town. Normally, being on home ice is a solid advantage, but not for the Sharks, who have dropped B2B games "at The Tank" and are a league-worst 5-12 SU at home this year. But the Leafs are playing a third road game in four nights. So, what to do?
With no clear edge as far as the side is concerned, I'm instead recommending a play on the total. I had the Under in San Jose's last game, the result of which was a 2-1 loss to Detroit. In my analysis for the play, I made mention that not only have the Sharks really struggled to score goals here at home (just 2.2 per game), but that they were also giving up a surprisingly high number of goals given how few shots they were allowing. That obviously falls at the feet of the goaltenders (.882 save percentage at home), but Martin Jones was better against Detroit and has 1.65 career GAA vs. Toronto.
After scoring 17 goals over their previous five games, Toronto was held to just one in Thursday's loss at Los Angeles. They've been allowing a lot of shots recently (36.4 per game L5!), but the goaltending has been solid (just five goals allowed L4 games), particularly Jonathan Bernier, who is likely to be back between the pipes today. Bernier has a 0.97 GAA his L3 starts. The Leafs are 9-3 Under on the road this season when the total is 5.5.
Nelly
Eastern Washington - over Idaho
Eastern Washington is just 6-8 on the season for a sharp fall for a squad that was 26-9 last season, winning the Big Sky and playing tough with Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament. Much of last season's team is back this year for Jim Hayford except for Tyler Harvey who was a NBA draft pick, but the schedule has been daunting. The Eagles have lost five of the last six games but those have all been road games and with a week between games and finally back at home Eastern Washington should deliver a strong performance looking to bounce back from a 0-2 start in league play. Idaho hasn't had a winning season since 2012 but at 10-5 with five straight wins things are looking up in Moscow. Outside of the narrow win over nearby rival Washington State the wins have come against awful competition with the past two victories coming by very slim margins to start league play. The offensive numbers are awful for the Vandals who are one of the highest turnover teams in the nation and this game will now be a fourth straight road game for the team. All three meetings were close last season with Eastern Washington ending Idaho's season but the offensive potential for the Eagles is still very good, shooting nearly 38 percent form 3-point range and the short bench for the team should be less of an issue now that the daunting road trip is over. This is a classic case of misleading records on both sides as by season's end Idaho seems likely to be looking up at Eastern Washington in the Big Sky standings.
Larry Ness
Utah St. vs. New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico
Craig Neal took over at New Mexico when Steve Alford ‘jumped ship’ to UCLA. His first team (2013-14 season) went 27-7 and made the NCAAs but the talent level dropped off considerably last year even before the injury to his son, Cullen, after just three games. Cullen Neal was averaging 17.0 PPG and the Lobos would finish just 15-16 on the season and stay home for the postseason (not typical for Lobo fans). Cullen returns healthy this year and Neal (14.7-4.4 APG) is paired in the backcourt with Butler transfer Brown, who leads the team in scoring at 19.4 PPG, while adding 5.6 RPG and 3.1 APG. The 6-8 Williams (16.2-7.3) is joined up front with 7-1 freshman Aget (7.7-6.4), giving the Lobos a MUCH better group than last year.
The Lobos were cruising along at 7-2 but lost 90-89 at home to Rice (as a 16.5-point favorite) on Dec 19, a loss which began a four-game slide. However, the Lobos have rebounded with a home win over Nevada and a road win at Fresno St (both by double digits) to get to 9-6 as they get set to host Utah St. The talent-thin Aggies, who have just two double digits scorers, the 6-8 Moore (14.2-5.2) and guard Smith (12.9-5.9), can’t have too much self-confidence following back-to-back home losses to San Diego State & Boise State.
“The Pit” in Albuquerque has always been one of CBB’s toughest visiting venues, although the Lobos were a modest 10-5 SU there last season (had gone 43-5 SU the previous three seasons at home). However, that shocking home upset loss to Rice is New Mexico’s lone home ‘blemish’ this season, as the Lobos are 7-1 SU at home, going 5-1 ATS in lined games, while outscoring opponents 82.4-to-66.2 PPG. Lay the points!