Jimmy Boyd
Northern Iowa -11½
I look for the Panthers to have no problem winning and covering this large spread against their in-state rivals at home. This is actually a good price to back Northern Iowa at home and the value is coming from the fact that the Panthers have lost 2 straight and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
While Northern Iowa is just 4-6 in their last 10 games, a big reason for that is they have played 9 of those 10 games on the road or at a neutral site. Their only home game during this stretch was a 80-44 win against Bradley. Sitting at 1-2 in conference play, we can expect max effort here from the Panthers and that should be more than enough to put away the Bulldogs by 15+ points. Drake is not a good team and are 1-7 in their last 8 games with the only winning coming against Abilene Christian.
Drake is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 conference road games, which includes a 53-69 defeat at UNI last year as a 16 point dog. Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 against a team with a losing record and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+1) over Eastern Michigan
The Huskies have proven to be a dominant team at home, going 10-0 this year and 30-12 SU the last three years, so anytime we can get them on this floor as a dog, we are more than willing to get to the window, especially since Eastern Michigan is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games against winning teams. Northern Illinois has also had great success against Mid-American teams, going 22-7-4 ATS in its last 33 and tonight it gets the money again. Wrong way favorite!
ASA
Steelers at Bengals
Play: Bengals
We will play on the Cincinnati Bengals at home plus the points over Pittsburgh. These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD’s allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals ‘weakness’ on defense is stopping the run, but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD’s versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick’em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Virginia (-5½) over GEORGIA TECH
Virginia is coming off an upset loss at Virginia Tech on Monday night but the Cavs have had 4 days off to prepare for this game and I expect a good bounce-back performance. Virginia is 29-15 ATS after a loss the last 6 seasons and the Cavaliers are 51-26-1 ATS during coach Bennett’s tenure in regular season games with 3 or days to prepare as long as they’re not favored by more than 14 points. I’ll lean with Virginia based on Tony Bennett’s coaching trends.
Opinion – IOWA STATE (-7) over Baylor
Baylor has been able to beat up on mediocre and bad teams but the Bears have struggled against other good teams, going 0-4 ATS against Oregon, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Kansas. Baylor managed to barely beat Vandy at home but they lost by 7 to the Ducks on an neutral court and were destroyed by 19 points at A&M and by 28 at Kansas. Baylor has had trouble when stepping up in class for years, as the Bears are 20-34-1 ATS as a conference underdog the last 8 seasons. My ratings favor Iowa State by 9½ points and I’ll lean with the Cyclones at -8 points or less.
Wunderdog
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts
Pick: St. Bonaventure -3
St. Bonaventure is 10-3 and 5-3-1 ATS and has won three in a row and seven of its last eight games. The Bonnies got an easy cover with a 77-58 win at George Mason on Wednesday as their star player Marcus Posley poured in 30 points and Jaylen Adams added 16 points while Dion Wright pulled down 12 rebounds. The Bonnies' defense held the Patriots to just 38.2 percent from the field. UMass got destroyed at Dayton 93-63 for its fifth loss in eight games as the Minutemen defense allowed the Flyers a .567 field goal percentage. Donte Clark and Trey Davis scored 21 points apiece for UMass, which made just 3-of-15 from three-point range. St. Bonny is 6-1 after an ATS win and 7-0 ATS its last seven conference games. UMass is 0-7 ATS at home. Play St. Bonaventure.
EZWINNERS
Houston Texans +3
This seemed like a very unlikely playoff matchup after the first month of the season with the way these two teams started their seasons. Now, both of these teams are rolling right along. The Chiefs have won ten straight games coming into this week one rematch that saw Kansas City win in Houston 27-20, while the Texans have won seven out of their last nine games to close the regular season. These two teams are very similar and I think points will be at a premium with makes the home underdog Texans, the team with the better defense in my opinion a very attractive play. The Texans held six of their opponents to a season low in yards this year and did so in four of the last seven games. Houston quarterback Brian Hoyer has done a very good job of taking care of the football. Houston has just ten giveaways in their last eleven games and I expect a more confident Hoyer to play a much better game than he did in the week one matchup against the Chiefs. The Kansas City defense feeds off of turnovers, so taking care of the ball will be even more critical than normal. I expect the Houston defense to have a huge game. This unit is playing very well at the right time as they finished seventh in the league in points allowed this season despite allowing over 28 points per game through their first seven games. Offensively the Texans have one of the best receiver in the league in the emerging DeAndre Hopkins. Take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals +2
A few weeks ago the Steelers were the sexy pick to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl, but I don't like the way they backed into the playoffs. Let me first say that I am a Pittsburgh fan, but have serious concerns. The Steelers laid an egg two weeks ago in a must win game against their most hated rival the Baltimore Ravens and quite frankly didn't look sharp against a Cleveland Browns team with Austin Davis at quarterback. The Steelers received a huge assist from Buffalo who knocked of the Jets last week which allowed the Steelers to get to the post season with the win over Cleveland last week. Vegas seems to lack faith in Cincinnati backup quarterback AJ McCarron who will start for the injured Andy Dalton. But what has Dalton done in the post season? Nothing at all as Dalton is 0-4 the previous four seasons in the playoffs with just one touchdown and six interceptions. McCarron is solid and has won a nation championship at Alabama so I think he can handle thepressure of a home playoff game. McCarron also has all kinds of weapons around him with Green, Eifert, Jones, Sanu, Hill and Bernard. The Steelers biggest weakness on defense is against the pass where they rank 30th in the NFL so there should be plenty of open targets for McCarron. Pittsburgh’s offense is very potent, but Big Ben has made some bad decisions with the football in the last few games. Pittsburgh might also be very one dimensional in this game as there is a good chance running back DeAngelo Williams will miss this game or at the very least be far from 100% healthy due to a foot injury. This is another case of the better defensive team being the home underdog and playoff home underdogs who have the better record are 9-3-1 against the spread in the last thirteen games. Take the points.
Rocketman
Kansas City @ Houston
Play: Houston +3
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Houston to take on the Texans on Saturday afternoon. Kansas City is 11-5 SU overall this year while Houston comes in with a 9-7 SU overall record on the season. Kansas City is 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS last 11 playoff appearances. Kansas City is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS since 1992 in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Both teams played well down the stretch. Houston was 3-0 SU their last 3 games of the season where they beat opponents by an average score of 26.7 to 7.3. Houston allowed only 15.6 points per game at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on Houston today!
Mr. Vegas
Blues at Kings
Play: Under
A pair of defensive-first teams meet in Los Angeles and the Blues are playing the second of a back to back road spot, so they won't want to speed up the pace. St. Louis is on a 5-2-1 run under the total, including 4-0-1 under playing on no days rest. Los Angeles is in first place with a great defense, No. 3 in goals allowed and No. 10 in penalty killing. Jake Muzzin and Jeff Carter scored third-period goals, and Lecavalier had a key assist in Los Angeles' 2-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night. The Kings are 17-7-7 under the total at home and 14-4-13 under playing on one day of rest.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Steelers-Bengals Under the total.
With AJ McCarron slated to start this home playoff game for the Bengals, perhaps the best way for the Bengals to win this contest is to lean on their defense which has held the opposition to 20 points or less in 8 of their 10 games since their bye week.
One of the big numbers they allowed did come in their last meeting against the Steelers at home on December 13th, as Cincy allowed Pittsburgh to score 33 in that contest. That was the game Andy Dalton left in the first quarter with his broken thumb, and AJ McCarron was pressed into duty. You can almost forgive the Bengals for that allowance, as they were a little shell-shocked in that contest. Remember that in the first go'round at Pittsburgh, the Bengals won a tight 16-10 decision, so Cincy does know how to match up against this Pittsburgh attack.
The Steelers have played their last pair of games Under the total, while the Bengals have played Under the total in their last 3 games, and 8 of their 10 since that bye week.
If Cincy is to actually win this game, then they simply must keep Big Ben and his dangerous wide receiving corps out of the end-zone. Toss in the fact that the expected rain could play a little havoc with Roethlisberger's throws, and I say we play this one Under the total.
3* PITTSBURGH-CINCINNATI UNDER
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the LA Clippers minus the points at home over the Charlotte Hornets. At the time of this writing the Clippers are giving around 6 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Simply put, the Hornets aren't playing very well right now. Their most recent slide began with a five-point home loss to this very same Clippers team back in December 30th. Teams have been shooting a ridiculous percentage from three-point land, including a recent loss to Phoenix.
Even their head coach, Steve Clifford, mentioned to reporters that his team simply isn't thinking about defense right now, and that's why they're involved in so many high scoring games.
When you're facing a guy like JJ Redick, who just hit five of six from three point land in his last game, you know it's going to be an uphill climb.
Player for player, the Clippers are just a better team and it's going to take a small miracle for the Hornets to compete today. Take the Clippers as your free play of the day.
2* L.A. CLIPPERS
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Warriors vs. Kings
Play: Kings +7½
The Kings catch the Warriors at a good time to spring the upset here. Golden State is off of a win at Portland last night and now has to play the 2nd night of a back to back. After getting the cash last night it is unlikely that the Warriors get a 2nd straight cover in this back to back. On the season, Golden State has played four back to backs since late November. The Warriors have been unable to cover both games ALL FOUR times. I look for that streak to run to a PERFECT 5-0 here as the Warriors fail to cover both games of a back to back for the FIFTH straight time. Sacramento has struggled at Golden State in both meetings there this season but the Kings did cover their only home meeting with the Warriors this season and I look for another ATS victory here. The Kings have won 5 of their last 7 home games and the two home defeats each came by 5 points or less. Sacramento is 11-6 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their Saturday games this season and this is a tough back to back scheduling spot for the Warriors.
BRANDON LEE
Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Play: Northwestern -2½
Love the value we are getting with Northwestern as a small road favorite against Minnesota. The Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated to get a win here after losing back-to-back home games against two of the better Big Ten teams in Maryland and Ohio State. Keep in mind Northwestern already won on the road at Nebraska 81-72 and also have road wins over both Virginia Tech and DePaul in non-conference play. Minnesota is way down this year. They are just 1-7 in their last 8 which includes home losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I look for the Wildcats to win here comfortably.
FRANK JORDAN
Kansas City vs. Houston
Play: Under 39.5
These two teams are in the bottom half of total offenses as Kansas City was 27th with under 5,300 total yards and Houston has just 5,564 yards and were 19th. Kansas City was a top 10 team in points per game at 9th with 25 points and Houston was tied at 21st with 21 points per game. Scoring in the playoffs is at a minimum as team don't take too many risks as to lose a game early on a botched trick play. Kansas City has allowed under 18 point per game this season which was 3rd best in the NFL and Houston is tied for 7th on defense with under 20 points per game. Look for a low scoring game as both teams run the ball and work to play the perfect play each down and ware done the opponent with the winning team scoring low 20s and the losing team scoring in the high teens as the total score will be under 40 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
LOS ANGELES -1½ +173 over St. Louis
OT included. You can spot a half puck and a nickel if you prefer but we’re going to split this up and play Los Angeles two different ways. We’ll spot the -½ -105 for half our bet and spot -1½ +176 for the other half.
Blues #1 netminder, Jake Allen was injured early in the first period last night in Anaheim, which means that Brian Elliott will play in back-to-back games for the first time since early October. The Blues have lost eight of Brian Elliott’s last nine starts and none of those losses were against teams more difficult to beat than these Kings. The Blue Notes also lost Paul Stastny and Jay Bouwmeester last night and they’ll join Jaden Schwartz on the rack. St. Louis has dropped five in a row and has allowed three goals or more against in seven straight. The Blues only victory over their past seven games occurred against Nashville and that’s only because All-Star Pekka Rinne allowed four goals on 25 shots, otherwise this team would be on a seven game losing streak. We have seen this before from every team Ken Hitchcock has coached before. From Dallas to Philadelphia to Columbus and now in St. Louis, his welcome gets worn out after about four or five years because the players get tired of his old-school ways. It’s a pattern that plays out wherever he goes and it’s playing out here too. Playing the 24th ranked strength of schedule, St. Louis is two games over .500. and they have five wins in 15 games against top-10 teams. Reeling, injured and mentally in a bad place right now, the Blue Notes will face a team playing at a very high level.
In a recent three-game trip through Western Canada against Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary, the Kings outscored that trio by a combined, 14-3. Whether discussing the Kings above or below the surface, they are a top-5 team in every category both on offense and defense and they are a top-2 team in many of those. The Kings’ Corsi for numbers ranks first in the NHL, meaning no team directs more shots on net. Their puck possession numbers also ranks first. Defensively, no team in the NHL has surrendered fewer goals in five-on-play than these Kings. This team is a freight train right now and we highly doubt that the Blue Notes are going to get in their way.
Officially:
St. Louis -½ -105 (risking 1.05 units to win 1) Regulation only
St. Louis -1½ +176 (risking 1 unit to win 1.76 units)
Pittsburgh +101 over MONTREAL
OT included. The Canadiens returned home from a grueling eight-game trip and promptly defeated the depleted Devils 2-1. This is the second game back after said trip and things are likely going to be much tougher for the Habs than it was against the Devils. The least talked about off-season move by the Habs was the acquisition of Jeff Petry. Petry has been a rock this entire season for Montreal by rarely getting caught out of position while playing 20 minutes per game. He’s been a stabilizing force all year but he’s out now and he’ll join Dale Weise on the rack, another unsung hero that has provided energy and great minutes for these Habs. Montreal has scored two goals or less in seven of its past 10 games and if their top line doesn’t produce, they’re in big trouble.
After playing Chicago in back-to-back games, the Penguins should find the going a little easier here. The loss in Chicago on Wednesday night ended the Penguins’ four-game point streak. Since dropping their first four games under head coach Mike Sullivan, the Penguins have put together a run where they have collected points in six of their last eight games. More importantly, this is a venue where the Penguins have thrived recently. Pittsburgh is 10-3-2 in its last 15 games against the Canadiens. At the Bell Centre the Penguins have won three of their last four visits and they are 5-1-1 in their last seven games here. Finally, Pittsburgh’s 7-3-1 record this year against the Atlantic Division is its best mark against any of the four divisions.Marc-Andre Fleury was 2-0 at the Bell Center last season, stopping 54 of 55 shots for a .982 SV% and he was very sharp in Wednesday’s game against Chicago as well. The Penguins have killed off 21 straight power-plays and while they went 0-2 against Chicago, they are playing at a much higher level right now than they were a month ago and we absolutely trust this team to come up with a big effort here.
Toronto +125 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks have lost three of their last four games and five of their past seven. The real problem for San Jose is its inability to keep the puck out of its own net. In seven of their past 12 games, the Sharkies have allowed four goals or more and three goals or more eight times. We cannot overstate enough how difficult that is to overcome. Teams scoring three goals or more have a huge winning percentage in this league and the Sharks are trying to overcome four goals. In 17 home games this season, the Sharks are 5-0 when scoring first and 0-12 when the opposition scores first. Their five wins in 17 home games is the worst home mark in the league. Sharks goaltender, Martin Jones is not handling the heavy workload he’s been given very well with save percentages of .850, .895, .800, .875, .800 and .871 in six of his past nine starts. Lastly, the Sharks will honor Mike Ricci as part of their 25th Anniversary Celebration tonight. We love to fade the host on a night when they’re honoring someone because they’re usually flat afterwards. It requires standing around during the ceremony and there are other obligations off the ice the day before or day of the game. It’s nothing but a distraction.
The Maple Leafs will conclude their three-game road trip to California here after going 1-1 in the first two games. Toronto defeated Anaheim 4-0 on Wednesday and lost 2-1 to the Kings on Thursday and proved once again what a tough out they have become. Prior to that, the Leafs defeated St. Louis, 4-1. In those aforementioned past three games against St. Louis, Anaheim and Los Angeles, the Maple Leafs drew 15 penalties while only committing five infractions, which is more proof of their relentless pursuit of the puck and how difficult it is to get it away from them once they have it. The Maple Leafs have earned at least a point in 10 of their last 13 games and they have scored a first period goal in all 10 of those last 13 games that they picked up at least one point in. That’s key here because of San Jose’s brutal record when the opposition scores first. The Maple Leafs are very high on our radar going into the second half because they are often the underdog, they rarely get outplayed and now Jonathan Bernier (tonight’s starter) has his confidence back too.
Dwayne Bryant
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -12
WKU (ranked #184 by Ken Pomeroy) is off a pair of losses, by 18 points at Marshall (#185), and by 3 at home against Florida International (#199). The FIU home loss was a hangover spot after getting spanked by the Thundering Herd. But it's bounce-back time at home today against a vastly inferior opponent. FAU is just 2-13 on the season, and ranked #303 out of 351 teams by Pomeroy. They are 1-8 in true road games, and all but one of those road losses was by more than today's number.