SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Jets +1.15 over CINCINNATI
It has been suggested that the Bengals “threw” last week’s game in New York so that they could have a rematch with these Jets as oppose to playing the offensively dangerous Texans. Perhaps they did, as they were torched 37-0. The Colts also laid down the previous week against these Jets and now what the Jets players are hearing and reading is how two teams laid down otherwise they’d be watching these playoffs from the rail. That story is somewhat true but it’s also a huge motivating factor, as the Jets will come in with a giant chip on its shoulder and something to prove indeed, which brings us to the old cliché, “be careful what you wish for”. What I do know is that defense, ball control and a great running game will usually prevail in the playoffs and the Jets have the NFL’s top-ranked defense and top-ranked ground game. So, yeah, the Jets backed into the playoffs but what about the Bengals? Well, they lost three of its last four with only win coming against the Chiefs by a score of 17-10. It’s last three wins came against the aforementioned Chiefs, Lions and Brownies. Its last notable win was about two months ago when they beat the Steelers 18-12. When they did beat the dregs of the league it was by the slimmest of margins. So, in summary, the Bengals come in with an offense that has had trouble scoring against some of the worst defenses in football. They scored 17 on KC, 23 on Detroit and 16 on Cleveland. Even if they did throw last week’s game they would have wanted to at least feel ok by putting together one efficient drive but they couldn’t. They come into this one losers of three of its last four and with an offense that can’t move five yards. Furthermore, the Jets come in with momentum while the Bengals do not. And perhaps, just perhaps, the Bengals didn’t throw last week’s game. Perhaps the Bengals are not that good and they, not the Jets, are the imposters in this game. Play: N.Y. Jets +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS –3½ over Philadelphia
Frankly, I couldn’t give a damn that Andy Reid has never lost a first-round game and that Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game in 10 years. So what? How does a game 10 years ago have an impact on the outcome of this one? It doesn’t, that’s how. It’s also been suggested that it’s extremely difficult to beat the same team three times in a year and while that may be true, would it feel better laying points had Dallas dropped one or two games. I don’t think so. Had Dallas lost last week, the pundits would be saying how the Cowboys choked again in a big game. And it was a big game. It was for home field in this match-up and perhaps another home next week to the winner. So, not only did the Boys win, they buried the Eagles in very impressive fashion. Dallas racked up close to 500 yards while holding the Eagles to practically nothing. In the first meeting of the year between these two in Philly, the Eagles mustered up less than 300 yards of total offense. So, who do you think is feeling better about this one? The Eagles, who lost twice to Dallas and who got ripped last week against Dallas or the Boys, who beat the Eagles twice and limited the offense to two of its worst outputs of the season? Philly’s defense has been ripped apart all year by efficient offenses. In fact, that defense surrendered 48 points to the Saints, 31 to the Chargers, 38 to the G-Men, 27 to the Broncos and last week’s 24-0 loss could have been a lot more points had Dallas not been intent on running the ball and keeping the clock moving. The Eagles defense had good days against Kansas City, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Atlanta and San Fran. Hell, that defense didn’t even have good days against the Redskins and the Bears. Are you kidding me? Fact is, the Eagles really aren’t that good. They got in by beating up on the dregs of the league and in fact, do not have a single win all year against a playoff team. Why would that change now on the road against a team with not only better players but with a huge psychological edge as well? Boys roll again. Play: Dallas –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
NEW ENGLAND –3 over Baltimore
Much has been made of the Patriots losing its best receiver, Wes Walker, to injury last week against the Texans and all I can say to that is, “big deal”. They still have Randy Moss and a wide-open Sam Aiken, Ben Watson or Julian Edelman will be just as good as a wide open Wes Walker. You see, the Ravens virtually have no pass rush, not to mention “B” cornerbacks and giving Tom Brady time to throw against poor coverage is death and that’s precisely what’ll occur here. New England already beat the Ravens in Baltimore way back in week 4 and that was at a time when Brady was just starting to feel comfortable again. Now he’s very comfortable and he’ll feel even better knowing that the Ravens won’t get close to him. So, while I’m not sold on the Patriots being the powerhouse they were a couple of seasons ago, they’re still far superior to this invader. In fact, the Patriots should have its way, both on the ground and in the air and watching these Ravens play from behind will not be a pretty sight for Baltimore backers. Play: New England –3 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Green Bay to win the Super Bowl +17.00
I could play the Packers to beat the Cardinals, as I like them to do so but this wager has a lot more value and should the Packers lose here, I don’t want to risk two bets. What I do know is that the Packers are peaking at precisely the right time. Both its defense and offense is playing as well or better than anyone else and that’s very significant. In fact, the Packers have all the right ingredients to make a deep run. They have a great quarterback that cannot only hit his receiver’s square in the numbers but he can run too. The Pack won seven of its last eight games and that includes a 10-point win over Dallas in which they held the Boys to just seven points. In the last three weeks they put up 36, 48 and 33 points respectively and that’s a testament to just how well this offense is going right now. Again, the Packers underrated defense is also playing well and we’ve seen it over and over in this league and that’s a team on a roll heading into the playoffs can go a long, long way, just like the Cards did last season and just like the G-Men did when they won the Super Bowl as a wildcard team just two years ago. Should the Pack win this week they’ll become even more dangerous. Play: Green Bay +17-1 to win the Super Bowl (Risking 1 unit).
Randall the Handle
NY Jets @ Bengals
Pay no attention to last week’s 37-0 kneecapping that the Jets laid on these Bengals. The only seed that mattered to Cincinnati was con-cede. The visiting Bengals knew exactly what they were doing. Aside from being allowed to rest some starters prior to playoffs commencing, a win would have had Cincy hosting the Texans instead of these Jets. Not much of a decision from where we sit. After all, the Jets had a very gratuitous path into this post-season. Sitting at just 7-7 two weeks ago, this New York squad lucked into finishing against two teams (Indianapolis, Cincinnati) that basically laid down. Prior to facing that disinterested pair, the Jets had not defeated a winning team since September. We don’t see how that changes on this day. New York’s QB Mark Sanchez has struggled all year long.. Only Matthew Stafford’s 26 interceptions were more than Sanchez’s 20. If you’re going to throw that many picks, you’d better have a lot of touchdowns to compensate. That’s not the case here as New York’s starting QB had just 12 TD throws. Even in last week’s win, the Jets’ pivot was just 8 for 16 for a puny 63 yards. Conversely, the Bengals do have a quality passer in Carson Palmer. Even though Cincinnati’s offence has staggered at times, they possess enough weapons to inflict damage, including RB Cedric Benson, who sat out last week’s game. The Jets fell into the playoff. The thump will be heard when exiting.
TAKING: Cincinnati –2½ RISKING: 2.02 units to win 2
Eagles @ Cowboys
Two weeks ago, the Eagles were widely considered a top contender in the NFC. After last week’s 24-0 pasting by these Cowboys, their stock plummeted faster than a speeding bullet with Philadelphia dropping to a #6 seed. The Cowboys are America’s darlings once again. Perhaps it is justifiably so. Dallas has dismissed the Kong-like monkey off its back with three impressive December wins heading into this post-season, including last week’s win to secure division. But can we trust it to continue? We have our doubts. While the talent level on these two clubs is debatable, coaching is not. We’re being offered a generous amount of points with Andy Reid’s squad. Reid is 7-0 in opening playoff games with the Eagles. Dallas’ Wade Phillips is winless in four playoff attempts with Denver, Buffalo and the Cowboys. In fact, the Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. You need to go back just two years, to when Dallas failed to defeat the visiting Giants as a 7-point favourite on its own turf. Playing in this fancy facility won’t bother this visitor either. Under Reid, Philadelphia has excelled on the road with 17 covers in past 25 away games. We’ve seen Donovan McNabb shine come playoff time. The same cannot be said for Tony Romo. While Romo has been exceptional lately, McNabb brings the better resume. The Eagles had won six of seven before last week’s setback. These birds have a multitude of talent that is worthy of our endorsement. Let’s not write them off just yet.
TAKING: Philadelphia +4 RISKING: 2.22 to win 2
Insider Angles
The New York Jets are extremely fortunate to be in these playoffs, as their last two opponents, the Indianapolis Colts and these Cincinnati Bengals, both laid down, enabling the Jets to get in.
However, that does not change the fact that the Jets are an excellent prototype for a good playoff team, so the Bengals may have made a mistake by not giving it their all last Sunday and thus setting up this rematch.
After all, the keys to winning in the playoffs are defense and a good running game, and the Jets have the distinction of leading the NFL in both! They are allowing just 14.8 points and a miniscule 251.6 yards of offense per game, limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per rush and a fantastic 4.9 yards per pass attempt. At the same time, the Jets rushing attack is averaging an impressive 172.2 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Begals stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. Granted, the season finale should not even count, but they did not play well in the other three games either, as the lone win over this stretch was by just a 17-10 count over the lowly Kansas City Chiefs in their division-clinching game. This is not the same Bengals team that looked so impressive earlier in the year.
Finally, the biggest concern for Jets backers appears to be how rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will perform in his first playoff game. While those concerns are well founded, we do not expect the Jets to put the ball in the air much here this week, so look for that weakness to be hidden until the Jets face one of the AFC heavyweights next week.
Of course, they would first need to beat Cincinnati this week to reach that point, and although it will not be as easy as the 37-0 pasting over an indifferent Bengals team last week, we do expect the Jets to use their running game and defense to win this rematch also.
NFL Wildcard Pick: Jets +2.5
Norm Hitzges
Triple Play - Dallas -4 vs Philadelphia
Double Play - Cincinnati/NY Jets Under 34
Cincinnati -2.5 vs NY Jets
John Ryan
Florida at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Florida
3* graded play on Florida as they take on Vanderbilt set to start at Noon EST. Both teams in the SEC and both with 11-3 records. Vandy is a 5.5 point favorite and our belief is that Florida not only has a solid chance of winning ATS, but also a solid chance to win the game. Both teams are nearly identical in their composition as their 11-3 records. Florida, however, has superior rebounding in this matchup and that will limit Vandy?s second chance opportunities. Gators Chandler Parsons leads the team and also is the one that made the 75 foot shot to defeat NC State. Such shots can have a positive effect on any team for weeks. he is the 6th man on Florida?s squad scoring 11.4 PPG and 6. 3 rebounds in 27 minutes of play. He also has positive attitude heading into Vandy knowing he has a career game last year shooting 7 for 8 from beyond the arc and scoring 27 points. he can come off the bench to pay shooting guard, small forward, and power forward and this allows HC Donavan to adjust his rotation ti how the flow of the game dictates. Florida is the type of team that is going to pound the paint and move the ball as often as possible to get he highest percentage shot. They do not shoot 3?s well to date and something they will need to improve if they are going to make a run at the conference title. Note, however that Vandy is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams making <=31% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. Take Florida.
Tom Freese
Georgia at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky
Kentucky is 14-5 ATS off a home win and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games after playing 3 straight games as home favorites. The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. Georgia is 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games off a straight up win. The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games off an ATS win and they are 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% or better of their free throws. PLAY ON KENTUCKY -
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are catching the Sixers in a tough scheduling spot here. Philadelphia is in a back to back spot having hosted Toronto last night. The Pistons have been off since visiting the Spurs on Wednesday. While a visit to San Antonio can be tough on a team, having two days to recuperate is a big help. Conversely, Philly is stuck in a tough back to back and Allen Iverson certainly isnt getting any younger. The Sixers have begun to make some strides and Iverson has been worked into the team as time has gone on. However, this is still a team that struggles to get wins even in the best of scheduling situations and now they must deal with a Pistons team that is much healthier now than they were before Christmas. Even with Tayshaun Prince, Ben Gordon, and Richard Hamilton back, the Pistons struggled after Christmas. However, it takes time for a team to gel and for guys to get their legs back and this will be the Pistons sixth game since Christmas. The results of this group getting its cohesion back will start to pay off. The Sixers failed to cover the back-end of each of their back-to-backs in December. The first such instance saw them allow their opponent to hit 53% from the field while the second instance saw the 76ers allow their opponent to hit 55% from the field. As you can see, the legs just werent there for the defense and neither was the intensity. We look for a repeat of that here and, having to visit a rested Detroit club will only make matters worse.
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Over 45
Philadelphia and Dallas are meeting for the second consecutive week at Cowboys Stadium yet this total has moved quite a bit more than it should have in my opinion. Last week, the number closed at 47.5 and 48 and early this week, we are seeing 45 and even some 44.5’s out there. The fact that the Eagles were shutout and also the fact that Dallas has two straight shutouts may be leading to this drop as well as the fact that it is playoff time. With this game being played only six days after the last meeting, there should be no drop in this number so we are definitely getting some good value. Philadelphia was shutout for the first time in four years and while that may concern some, it is not concerning me at all. It was not an indication of how the Eagles have been playing as it is more of an aberration than anything. Philadelphia came into that Cowboys game on a six-game winning streak and had scored 24 points or more in each, averaging 31.2 ppg. After 16 weeks, the offense finally had a bad game but that does not mean that it is going to continue. This offense is simply too good to be held in check two consecutive weeks. The Cowboys defense has been playing great as they have held some good offensive teams to low point totals. Dallas has recorded back-to-back shutouts for the first time in the history of the franchise so it is definitely an impressive feat. There is no chance it will happen three times in a row and I really do not see the defense keeping the Eagles, who are fifth in the NFL in scoring with 26.8 ppg, down again after allowing a combined 16 points in the first two meetings. I know this is a different year but not that much has changed from last season on either side when Philadelphia put up 44 and 37 points in the two meetings. On the other side, the Eagles defense has been extremely inconsistent as it has allowed 24 or more points in five of their last eight games. The Cowboys managed 24 points last Sunday and if the game had been tighter and Dallas needed it, it could have produced more as it did not score over the final 20 minutes of the game. The Cowboys have gone under in eight of their last nine games including both games in this series and that tells me right there it is time to go the other way. The contrarian thinking in me says to do so. 20 points will be the magic number here as the Eagles are 11-1 to the ‘Over’ when both teams hit 20 points while Dallas is 11-0 to the ‘Over’ when both teams hit 20 points. This may seem like 1st grade thinking but what it does say is that over the last two seasons, when the teams are scoring and allowing a fair number of points, these games tend to be shootouts. The Eagles averaged 61.6 ppg in those 12 games while Dallas averaged in 57.1 ppg in those 11 games. 3* Over Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys
Tony George
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Under 45
With Dallas hitting on all cylinders last week against a back on their heels Eagles team, they still managed just 24 points on offense where they really had it going. Yes there are playmakers on both sides of the ball on offense for these teams, but in a game like this for Philly to compete after 2 straight losses, they have to play defense and dis-allow big plays from Dallas, especially in the running game.
On the other side, The Cowboys linebackers, especially Brookings, did a nice job of shutting down the run and not allowing the Eagles big play WRs much of a day, and the order of the day is still the same, pressure McNabb and shawdow RB Westbrook. In their last 3 games Dallas's defense has allowed 5.7 points per game and just 260 yards of total offense. That is impressive and has more to do with their record recently in December than anything. The offense and Romo get a ton of hype, but it has been the defense getting it done and that includes a game at New Orlenas where the high flying Saints were held to 17 points at home!
Both contests between these two teams have went under this year and the most points scored by any team was last weeks 24 points by Dallas. This will be a battle in the trenches and points should be hard to come by and valued for whatever side you are on, but the bottom line is defense will this game. The Under is 7-2-1 the last 10 Playoff games for the Eagles.
Marc Lawrence
Hoftstra at Old Dominion
Prediction: Hoftstra
The Monarchs suit up after winning five of their last six games including a road victory over Georgetown and as a result are hefty favorites over Hofstra. The more points, the merrier, as the Pride has gone to the bank five straight times in this series when looking to avenge a prior defeat and this time they arrive in Norfolk spurred on by Conference Tourney Knockout revenge. In that same vein, Old Dominion has stumbled to a 4-7 ATS log at home when tangling with a CAA foe fueled by conference tourney revenge. Off to an aggravating 1-2 start in league play (lost by 1 point to William & Mary and 4 points to George Mason), the visitors will look to build on Wednesdays win over Towson and square their conference record at 2-2. You know the old saying Pride comes before a fall.
Charlie Scott
UNLV vs. New Mexico
Play: Under 146.5
As I'm currently living in Albuquerque, and I'm an alumnus of UNLV, I follow both teams closely. Both of these teams are pretty good and both are coming off losing their conference opener. Both Head Coaches Kruger and Alford emphasize playing tough team defense. Kruger and Alford also blamed their losses from their teams not playing physical. When these 2 teams met last year UNLV won in Vegas 60-58 and NM won in Albuquerque 73-69 in OT. The totals for the games last year were 133 and 135. I don't expect much difference in playing style or pace from when these teams played last year. Blame it on the altitude, good defense, or poor shooting, but this total is too high !
Rob Vinciletti
Weber State vs. Northern Arizona
Play: Weber State -1.5
Weber. St is the better team here tonight and is good enough in this spot to win and cover. They are 27-9 vs losing teams,8-2 ats when the the total is 140 to 150, 15-3 In January the past few years, 6-0 after scoring 80 or more points in their last game and an incredible 17-2 ats in Saturday games. North Arizona may be at home tonight but they are just 2-7 vs winning teams, 1-5 with 1 or less days of rest and 1-4 straight up and ats as home dogs of 3 or less. Weber.St is the play here.
LT Profits
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
Now, we realize that NFL Week 17 results should be taken with a grain of salt, as teams that are already in the playoffs rest their starters and just try to get into the post-season healthy.
However, the regular season finale between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys was the only Week 17 game that was meaningful to both teams and required both teams to show up, and the fact that the Cowboys dismantled the Birds 24-0 to set up this rematch at the same venue is highly significant.
Keep in mind that we were among the people that were down on the Cowboys at the beginning of December, as the past struggles of the team and of Tony Romo in particular during the month had been well documented. However, Dallas and Romo cast those doubts aside when they handed the New Orleans Saints their first loss of the season, and then followed that up with consecutive shutout wins.
The Cowboys are clicking on all fazes right now, as Romo is playing well, they are running the ball with authority and their defense has been sensational. They have to be highly confident entering this contest, and rightfully so, after sweeping both regular season meetings with the Eagles, and this seems like the perfect spot for Romo to get another huge monkey off of his back by winning his first career playoff game.
While we realize that Philadelphia is better than they looked last week, it has to be disconcerting to them that they could do absolutely nothing in a game where they had a chance not only to win the NFC East, but also lock up a first round bye. Can they now make the necessary adjustments for this rematch just six day later? While they may change some things, we do not feel they can make enough adjustments to hang within a field goal here.
After all, the Philadelphia run defense was struggling even before the finale, as they have now allowed 489 rushing yards in the last four games. Look for a now-healthy Marion Barber to lead a potent rushing attack again here, making it easier for Romo to post that elusive playoff win.
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Black Widow
1* on Tulsa +1.5
Tulsa is a very solid team from Conference USA with an 11-3 record this season. They have struggled on the road, but now have a great chance to get their first road win this season against a Houston team that has lost 3 of their last 4 to the likes of LA Tech, Texas-San Antonio and Iowa State. We really like this Tulsa defense over the putrid defense of Houston. Tulsa allows only 62.5 points/game and 37.9% shooting this season. Meanwhile, the Cougars allow 78.1 points/game and 47.4% shooting. We'll take the sound, solid defensive team every time in this spot. Houston is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. They have struggled against solid defensive teams like Tulsa over the last few years, and they'll struggle again Saturday. Take Tulsa and the points.
John Martin
1 Unit on California -9.5
Cal has to be steaming over their 75-76 overtime loss to UCLA last time out. Look for the Bears to take it out on USC Saturday at home. USC has not fared well in their true road games this season. They lost by 19 at Texas, 26 at Georgia Tech and by 1 at Stanford. Cal is 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this season with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points/game. They beat Stanford by 26 on January 2nd, which is the same team the Trojans lost to. Cal is 16-6 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Look for Cal to get after USC early and put them away by halftime. Cash in with Cal as the favorite.