Info Plays
3* on St. John's +11.5
Reasons why St. John's covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (LOUISVILLE) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This is a 38-11 ATS System hitting 77.6% over the last 5 seasons. This is a huge letdown spot for Louisville after their blowout win over Providence, and with Villanova coming up next.
2.) St. John's is a much better team than they are getting credit for here. The Red Storm have posted a 10-4 record so far thanks to an experienced team with 5 returning starters. They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in road games. They lost by just 9 at Duke and by just 7 at Georgetown for their only losses, which are two better teams than the Cardinals' squad they will face Saturday. This game will be decided by single-digits as Louisville lets up a bit, looking ahead to Villanova. Bet St. John's on the road.
JR TIPS
Knicks at Rockets
The Houston Rockets haven't lost at the Toyota Center since late November and returning home from a winless three- game road trip, they get a visit from the New York Knicks. The Rockets will try to extend their six-game winning streak in their first home game of the New Year by getting past the New York Knicks who are on a three-game win streak. The Knicks have been hot shooting above 50.0 percent from the field in each of the three victories and is only giving up an average of 96.0 over the past 18 games. Second leading scorer Al Harrington missed the last win over the Bobcats with a calf injury and is day to day although Wilson Chandler who has started in his place has averaged 24.7 points during the three-game winning streak. The Rockets gave up too many big shots in their last game letting Phoenix shoot 54.4 percent and rally from a 16-point deficit Wednesday to win 118-110. Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry each scored career highs in the loss to the Suns, but Trevor Ariza has only averaged 11.9 points over the past nine games while shooting 31.3 percent. Houston will get back to playing hard nose defense as they agreed as a team that they were out of sync after giving up a 16 point lead to the Suns. Houston had won eight in a row in the series before the Knicks won at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 26th. Al Harrington’s absence will hurt the Knicks and they will not shot over 50 percent on the road against Houston so look for the Rockets to get back to their dominance over the Knicks, especially at home where they are almost unbeatable.
Take HOUSTON minus the points
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
N.Y. Jets (9-7 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (10-6, 7-8 ATS)
In the first of three rematches from last weekend’s regular-season finales, the Jets travel to Paul Brown Stadium for a meeting with the Bengals to open wild-card weekend.
New York won its first three games of the season both SU and ATS behind rookie QB Mark Sanchez, then went on a 1-6 SU and ATS slide that appeared to kill any hopes of making the playoffs. But the Jets finished the year on a 5-1 SU and ATS run, including victories in their last two games to clinch the final AFC postseason berth. In Sunday night’s regular-season finale, they hammered a disinterested Bengals squad 37-0 as a 10-point home chalk, earning a wild-card bid for the first time in three years.
Cincinnati’s effort last week stemmed primarily from having already clinched the AFC North. The Bengals went 6-0 (4-2 ATS) in division play, pulling off home and road upsets of the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers and the Ravens – the two teams that met in last year’s AFC title game. Cincy needed all those division wins, as it finished the season on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide, though all three SU losses came on the road against playoff-bound teams: Minnesota, San Diego and last week’s debacle against the Jets.
The Jets are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season, when they got trounced at New England 37-16 in the wild-card round as a 9½-point pup. Meanwhile, the Bengals return to the postseason for the first time since 2005, when Palmer got his knee torn up on the first possession of a 31-17 wild-card loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home ‘dog.
These teams have met each of the last three regular seasons, with New York going 2-1 SU and ATS and the home team going 3-0 SU and ATS. In October 2007 at Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati held on for a 38-31 win laying six points, and in October 2008, New York won 26-14 giving 9½ points. The Jets are 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight clashes, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and were slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg. RB Thomas Jones leads the way, having rushed for 1,402 yards (4.2 ypc), which was third in the NFL behind only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson. Jones also had 14 rushing touchdowns. Sanchez had 12 TDs passes offset by 20 INTs (second-most in the league), and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three.
Defensively, the Jets ranked No. 1 in points and yards allowed, at a stifling 14.8 ppg and 252.3 ypg. But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th).
The Bengals’ offense was lackluster at best in averaging 309.1 ypg (24th) and 19.1 ppg (22nd), paced by the running of Cedric Benson, who finished eighth in the league at 1,251 yards (4.2 ypc) despite missing three games. QB Carson Palmer was effective, if not flashy, in the regular season, passing for 3,094 yards with 21 TDs and 13 INTs.
Cincinnati also fields a stout defense, allowing 301.4 ypg (fourth) and 18.2 ppg (sixth), and the Bengals give up just 98.3 rushing ypg (seventh). However, like the Jets, Cincy wasn’t productive in the turnover margin department, finishing dead-even to rate 18th, just behind New York.
New York is on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0 catching three points or less and 8-3 as a road pup. The SU winner has also cashed in all 16 of the Jets’ games this season and the last 18 overall.
Cincy is on a 7-1 ATS tear against winning teams, but also shoulders negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall, 7-21-1 laying points (0-7 as a favorite this year) and 3-9-2 as a home chalk of three points or less. In addition, the underdog is 14-2 ATS in the Bengals’ 16 games this year.
New York is on “under” upticks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 3-1-1 as a pup and 3-1-1 against winning teams. Furthermore, the under for Cincinnati is on several sprees, including 4-1 overall, 9-2 with the Bengals favored, 19-7-1 at home and 9-0 when Marvin Lewis’ troops are a home chalk. Conversely, the Jets carry “over” streaks of 4-1 in January, 4-1-1 against AFC opponents and 4-1 as a road pup of three points or less.
Finally, last week’s game – despite no help from Cincinnati – went over the posted price of 33½, and the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Philadelphia (11-5, 9-7 ATS) at Dallas (11-5, 9-7 ATS)
In another rematch from last week, the Eagles make a return trip to the Lone Star State to collide with the NFC East rival Cowboys in the wild-card round.
Dallas drubbed Philadelphia 24-0 Sunday as a three-point home chalk, leaping from a wild-card spot to the No. 3 seed and an opening-round home game. After winning eight of their first 11 games (6-5 ATS), the Cowboys went on their seemingly annual December swoon, losing the first two games of that month SU and ATS. But they snapped out of it by going 3-0 SU and ATS to finish the season, starting with a 24-17 road upset of previously unbeaten New Orleans as a seven-point pup, and following with shutouts of both Washington and Philly. It was the first time in the storied franchise history that Dallas posted consecutive shutouts.
Philadelphia was one of the hottest teams in the league prior to last week’s contest at the new Cowboys Stadium, having won six in a row SU (4-2 ATS). That put the Eagles in position to claim the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a win at Dallas, but they couldn’t even muster a point and dropped all the way to the sixth seed. Philly netted a meager 228 total yards, while allowing the Pokes to go off for a whopping 474 yards, including 179 on the ground. The Eagles also got killed in time of possession (40:23-19:37).
The Cowboys reached the playoffs after a one-year hiatus, with their last appearance coming after the 2007 regular season. In that divisional-round contest, Dallas suffered a 21-17 upset home loss as a seven-point chalk against the Giants, who went on to win the Super Bowl. Dallas has lost its last six playoff games, going 1-5 ATS in that stretch, with its last postseason win coming after the 1996 season.
The Eagles are in the playoffs for the eighth time under coach Andy Reid, having reached the NFC Championship Game as a wild card last year by beating the Vikings and Giants on the road before losing at Arizona 32-25 as a 3½-point chalk. Additionally, Reid has never lost a playoff opener – be it in the wild-card or divisional round -- in his 11 years with the Eagles, going 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, including 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on wild-card weekend.
Dallas won and covered in both regular-season meetings with Philadelphia this year, posting a 20-16 road victory as a three-point pup in November to go along with last week’s rout. Those efforts ended Philly’s three-game ATS run (2-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 44-6 beatdown as a 2½-point home chalk in the 2008 regular-season finale, which kept Dallas from making the playoffs and sent the Eagles into the postseason.
Despite last week’s result, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes between these two, Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS on its last 14 trips to Dallas, and the underdog is on an 8-3 pointspread roll.
The Eagles rank 11th in the league in total offense (357.9 ypg) and are fifth in scoring (26.8 ppg). A big key to Philadelphia’s success is its plus-15 turnover margin, the second-best total in the league behind only Green Bay’s whopping plus-24. QB Donovan McNabb passed for 3,553 yards with 22 TDs against just 10 INTs, with multi-threat WR DeSean Jackson leading the way at 1,167 receiving yards. Jackson led the Eagles with 12 TDs – nine receiving, one rushing and two on punt returns.
On defense, Philadelphia are 12th in yards allowed (321.1 ypg ) and 19th in points allowed (21.1 ppg), rating ninth against the run (104.7 ypg) despite letting the Cowboys run wild last week. CB Asante Samuel tied for the league lead with nine INTs in helping the Eagles post their lofty turnover margin.
The Cowboys have the league’s second-best total offense, racking up 399.4 ypg, behind only the high-octane Saints (403.8 ypg), but that has translated into just 22.6 ppg (14th). QB Tony Romo led a passing attack that netted 267.9 ypg (sixth), and Dallas was seventh in rushing (131.5 ypg), paced by Marion Barber (932 yards, 7 TDs, 4.4 ypc). Romo passed for 4,483 yards (third) with 26 TDs and just nine INTs.
Thanks to ending the season with consecutive shutouts, Dallas ranked second to the Jets in scoring defense (15.6 ppg) and was ninth in total defense (315.9 ypg). The Cowboys were fifth against the rush (90.5 ypg), and DeMarcus Ware piled up a team-best 11 sacks.
The Pokes are in ATS ruts of 1-4 as a playoff chalk, 3-9 in January and 5-11 against NFC East foes, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 6-2 after a SU win, 5-2 at home (all as a chalk) and 12-5 in conference action.
Philly is on a handful of ATS tears, including 13-5 as a pup, 5-0 as a playoff ‘dog, 6-2 in the postseason, 17-8 on the highway, 5-1 in postseason roadies, 7-0 catching 3½ to 10 points and 6-2 on Saturday.
The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 4-0 in January, 6-1 in the NFC, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 in the postseason and 4-1 inside the division. Philadelphia sports “under” runs of 4-1 on wild-card weekend and 7-2-1 in the playoffs, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Dallas, with last week falling far short of the 47½-point price. The under also cashed in the first Cowboys-Eagles clash in Philadelphia in November.
That said, the Eagles are on “over” surges of 6-1 after a SU loss, 20-6 as a pup, 11-5 as a road ‘dog and 29-14-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(13) UConn (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) at (12) Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS)
The Huskies hit the road for just the second time this season when they visit the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C., for a Big East tussle with Georgetown.
UConn is coming off consecutive conference home wins and covers over Notre Dame (82-70 as a seven-point chalk last Saturday) and Seton Hall (71-63 as a 6½-point favorite on Wednesday). The Huskies are 7-2 in their last nine games (3-3-1 ATS in lined action), and the losses were by a total of five points at Big East foe Cincinnati (71-69 as two-point road underdog) and No. 4 Kentucky (64-61 as a one-point neutral-site favorite). Jim Calhoun’s squad is 0-2 SU and ATS against Top 25 teams, falling to Kentucky and then-No. 7 Duke (68-59), both at Madison Square Garden.
The Hoyas’ three-game winning streak was halted in Wednesday’s 62-59 loss at Marquette as a 1½-point road underdog. Georgetown stumbled despite outshooting the Warriors 48.9 percent to 38.9 percent, but Marquette hit 12 of 26 three-point shots. The Hoyas have scored 57 and 59 points in their two losses while producing at least 66 points in nine of their 11 victories. John Thompson’s squad sports one of the top defenses in the nation, yielding just 57.8 ppg in Division I contests.
The Hoyas swept last year’s season series against the Huskies (1-1 ATS) and have won the last three in a row following an 11-0 SU run by UConn. Georgetown is also 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head clashes, but the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Washington D.C., and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five.
UConn is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games, all against winning teams, and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Hoyas sport nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 9-19-1 overall, 2-9 at home, 7-19 in conference play, 4-10 after a SU loss and 8-20-1 on Saturday.
The under is on steaks of 7-2 for the Huskies on the road, 5-1 for Georgetown overall, 6-1 for Georgetown in Big East contests, 4-0 for Georgetown on Saturday and 35-17-1 for Georgetown after a SU defeat. However, the total has alternated in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, with the final contest last year staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and UNDER
(4) Purdue (14-0, 7-6-1 ATS) at (17) at Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS)
The unbeaten Boilermakers face their toughest road test of the season when they visit the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with 17th-ranked Wisconsin.
Purdue dominated Minnesota 79-60 as an 8½-point home favorite on Tuesday, improving to 2-0 (1-1 ATS) in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers, one of just four undefeated teams remaining in Division I, have won 12 games by double digits, including the last five in a row during which they’ve averaged 76.4 ppg and given up just 58 ppg.
The Badgers saw their six-game winning streak end Wednesday when they went to Michigan State and lost 54-47 to the 10th-ranked Spartans, coming up a whisker short of covering as a six-point road underdog. Despite the defeat, Wisconsin held its sixth straight opponent to 58 points or less, and Bo Ryan’s club is yielding just 47.7 ppg during this stretch. The Badgers are a perfect 9-0 at home this year – including a 73-69 victory over No. 6 and unbeaten Duke as a 4½-point underdog – and they’re yielding just 50 ppg at the Kohl Center. Also, prior to falling at Michigan State, Wisconsin had been 3-0 SU and ATS against ranked teams.
Purdue has swept the two-game season series from the Badgers each of the last two years, cashing in all four games. In fact, the Boilermakers are on a 7-0 ATS run in this rivalry, including 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Madison. Last year, Purdue prevailed 65-52 as a six-point home favorite and 64-63 as a one-point road ‘dog. The pup has covered in six of the last seven clashes.
The Boilermakers have cashed in back-to-back games and are on additional ATS runs of 5-2 on Saturday and 6-0-1 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last 10 on the highway and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 after a spread-cover. Wisconsin is on pointspread rolls of 5-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 after a defeat and 5-1 after a non-cover, but it is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five Saturday outings.
The Badgers are on “under” streaks of 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 in Big Ten play and 14-5 on Saturday, and five of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE and UNDER
(5) Duke (13-1, 9-4 ATS) at (20) Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS)
Duke takes a seven-game winning streak into Alexander Memorial Coliseum as it meets up with ACC rival Georgia Tech, which is coming off a surprising loss to rival Georgia.
The Blue Devils trounced Iowa State 86-65 as a 12½-point favorite on a neutral court in Chicago on Wednesday. Since getting upset at Wisconsin on Dec. 2 – its only true road game to this point – Duke has peeled off seven wins by an average of a whopping 30.1 ppg, the last six being by margins of 21, 21, 49, 21, 25 and 45 points. The Blue Devils have scored at least 74 points throughout their win streak and have topped 70 points in 11 of 14 games while holding the opposition under 60 points seven times.
The Yellow Jackets opened the ACC season with a 66-59 overtime loss to Florida State as a 5½-point home favorite on Dec. 20, then ripped off three straight non-conference wins (1-0 ATS in lined games). But on Tuesday, they made the short trip north to Athens to face Georgia and stumbled 73-66 as a five-point road chalk). Georgia Tech is 7-1 SU at home, outscoring lined opponents by 19.5 ppg (77.5-58).
Duke has won five in a row and nine of the last 10 in this rivalry (7-3 ATS). In last year’s lone meeting, the Blue Devils went to Atlanta and cruised 70-56 as 12-point road favorite. Going back to the 1998-99 season, Duke is 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS against Georgia Tech, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 visits to Alexander Memorial Coliseum
Also in this series, the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes and 8-2 ATS in the last 10, while the host has covered in six of the last nine.
The Blue Devils are on ATS tears of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but they’re just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday outings. Georgia Tech is on pointspread surges of 10-3 overall, 9-4 on Saturday, 4-1 against ACC foes and 8-3 against winning teams.
These teams have stayed under the total in nine straight meetings, including four in a row in Atlanta. The under is also 19-7 in Duke’s last 26 ACC contests, 6-0 in its last six against winning teams and 10-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 11 versus winning opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
(11) Kansas State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at Missouri (12-3, 5-4 ATS)
Kansas State visits an opponent’s gym for just the second time this season as it opens Big 12 play with a trip to Columbia, Mo., to take on the Tigers, who have won seven straight overall and 30 in a row at Mizzou Arena.
The Wildcats pounded South Dakota State 91-69 in a non-lined home game on Sunday, their 10th consecutive victory. Kansas State’s only blemish is an 86-74 loss to Ole Miss in a preseason tournament in Puerto Rico on Nov. 20, failing as a 1½-point favorite. In their only true road game this year, the Wildcats went to Las Vegas and destroyed UNLV 95-80 as a 2½-point underdog, part of an ongoing 6-0 ATS run in lined contests. Last year, Kansas State split its eight conference road games (2-5-1 ATS).
Missouri followed up last Saturday’s 89-61 rout of Georgia as a 16-point home favorite with Wednesday’s 74-45 destruction of Division II Savannah State in a non-lined game. Prior to Wednesday, the Tigers had scored more than 80 points in six straight games, and they’re averaging 86.3 ppg during their seven-game win streak.
Missouri’s last home loss was a 75-73 setback to Oklahoma State in February 2008. Since then, the Tigers are 30-0 in their arena, including 9-0 in Big 12 action (6-3 ATS). This year, Missouri is 11-0 at home, averaging 90.2 ppg against lined competition (50.4 percent shooting) and allowing 59.4 ppg (36.7 percent).
The host is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with the winner averaging 87.9 ppg. Last year, Kansas State prevailed 88-72 as a three-point home pup, then went to Columbia and got whacked 94-74 as a 10-point underdog. Going back further, the home team is on a 8-2 SU and ATS roll between these teams, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 matchups.
Both teams have identical offensive numbers against Division I foes, averaging 83.5 ppg while making 47.5 percent of their shots.
While K-State has cashed in six straight games overall and is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 on Saturday, it is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road contests and 6-18-2 ATS in its last 26 conference games. The Tigers are on positive pointspread surges of 18-8 overall, 19-7 at home, 4-1 in Big 12 play, 9-3 after a SU win and 7-0 when coming off a blowout victory of more than 20 points.
There’s nothing but “over” trends for these high-scoring teams, with the Wildcats on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 7-0 against winning teams, while Mizzou is on “over” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 8-0 versus opponents with a winning record. Finally, the last eight meetings overall – including the last four in Columbia – have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
Ohio State (11-4, 7-8 ATS) at Minnesota (11-4, 8-6 ATS)
The Golden Gophers look to extend the home team’s dominance in this Big Ten rivalry when they welcome Ohio State to Williams Arena.
After opening the conference season with a pair of road losses that knocked them out of the Top 25, the Buckeyes got back on track Wednesday with 79-54 rout of Indiana as a 14-point home favorite. Ohio State ended an 0-6 ATS drought with that spread-cover, but it is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this year (74-66 loss at No. 22 Butler; 65-43 loss at No. 23 Wisconsin; 73-64 loss at Michigan).
Minnesota returns home after a two-game conference road swing that began with an 86-74 rout of Iowa as a 10-point favorite and ended with Tuesday’s 79-60 loss at fourth-ranked Purdue as an 8½-point underdog. Tuesday’s setback snapped Minnesota’s seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Gophers are 9-0 at home, going 6-2 ATS in lined games while outscoring those eight opponents by nearly 30 points per game (87-57.3) and outshooting them 52 percent to 35.2 percent. Going back to last year, Tubby Smith’s squad is 13-1 at Williams Arena (9-4 ATS).
The host has taken four straight meetings in this rivalry both SU and ATS. Last year, Ohio State went to Minnesota and fell 68-59 as a 3½-point underdog, but got revenge with a 65-58 win as a 4½-point home chalk. The Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the SU winner covered in nine of those 10 contests. Also, the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last six battles.
Ohio State has failed to cover in six of its last seven overall and four straight after an outright victory, but it is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 Saturday contests. Minnesota is on pointspread upticks of 6-2 overall and 5-1 at home, but it is also in ATS ruts of 5-13 in conference games, 1-5 against winning teams and 5-11 ATS after a SU defeat.
The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these schools (4-1 “under” at Minnesota), with the last three in a row staying low. Also, the Buckeyes are on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall, 11-5 on the road, 7-2 in Big Ten games, 35-15-1 on Saturday and 7-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the Gophers are riding “over” streaks of 6-2 overall and 6-1 at home, but 38 of their last 56 Saturday outings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS) at (15) New Mexico (14-2, 10-4-1 ATS)
Two teams that opened the Mountain West Conference season with road losses meet up at The Pit in Albuquerque, where New Mexico will try to extend a 17-game home winning streak with a victory over the Runnin’ Rebels.
UNLV, playing its first game since a 19-point Christmas Day loss to USC in Honolulu, went to Provo, Utah, on Wednesday and gave 25th-ranked BYU all it could handle but eventually succumbed 77-73. The Rebels did easily cover as a 7½-point road underdog, improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Prior to Wednesday, UNLV had won its first four road games, and it is now 4-1 ATS as a visitor this year.
The Lobos took their No. 15 ranking to San Diego State on Tuesday and lost 74-64 as a four-point road underdog. After starting the season 12-0, New Mexico has split its last four games (1-2 ATS), but both defeats came on the road. As part of its 17-game home winning streak, New Mexico is 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this year while outscoring visitors by more than 17 ppg (79.3-62).
The Runnin’ Rebels were the last team to give New Mexico a real scare at The Pit, taking the Lobos to overtime last February before falling 73-69 while eking out the cover as a five-point underdog. A month earlier, the Rebels won 60-58 at home as a five-point chalk. The host has won eight of the last nine meetings, but is just 5-4 ATS. Finally, New Mexico has cashed in seven of the last 10 against UNLV, but the ‘dog is on a 5-2 ATS roll.
UNLV ended a six-game Mountain West ATS losing skid with the spread-cover at BYU, while New Mexico dropped to 1-5 ATS in its last six league games with the loss at San Diego State. From there, though, the Lobos carry positive pointspread trends of 12-4-1 overall, 35-16-1 at home, 3-1-1 on Saturday, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven Rebels-Lobos matchups and 6-2 in UNLV’s last eight Saturday games. However UNLV has stayed low in seven of its last 10 on the road and New Mexico is 4-1 “under” in its last five on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO and OVER
(8) West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) at Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS)
West Virginia, which is off to a 3-0 start in conference play, heads to the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., for a nighttime Big East showdown against the Irish.
The Mountaineers rebounded from their first loss of the season – a 77-62 setback at fourth-ranked Purdue on New Year’s Day – with Wednesday’s 86-52 drubbing of Rutgers, easily covering as a hefty 19½-point home chalk after a 1-4 ATS downturn. West Virginia had won its first two Big East games by a total of seven points (63-62 versus Marquette at home; 90-84 overtime win at Seton Hall)
Notre Dame bounced back from last Saturday’s 82-70 loss at UConn by edging South Florida 74-73 on Tuesday, pushing as a one-point road favorite. The Irish have scored at least 70 points in nine straight games, topping 80 points seven times and 90 points four times. Notre Dame has won 11 of its first 12 home games this year (4-2 ATS in lined action), averaging 88.3 ppg (52.5 percent shooting) and yielding 71 ppg (44.4 percent).
West Virginia took down Notre Dame twice last year, wining 79-68 as a 9½-point home favorite, then rolling 74-62 as a six-point chalk in the Big East tournament. Prior to that, the Irish had won 13 of 14 in this rivalry (8-6 ATS). The home team has prevailed in each of the last four regular-season tussles (2-2 ATS), and the favorite has covered in the last three after the ‘dog got the money in the previous four.
West Virginia is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a victory of more than 20 points and 2-5 after a spread-cover, while the Irish carry pointspread trends of 6-13-1 in Big East play, 4-10 on Saturday and 8-18 after a SU victory.
Notre Dame has topped the total in seven straight lined games overall, all five home contests this season and six of eight on Saturday, while the Mountaineers have gone over the number in five straight roadies. However, the under has hit nine straight times in this rivalry, going 3-0 in the last three in South Bend, and the under is 11-5 in West Virginia’s last 16 league contests, 10-1 in its last 11 against winning teams and 10-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Texas Tech (12-2, 6-2 ATS) at Oklahoma State (12-2, 5-2-1 ATS)
Two teams that enjoyed a lot of success in the non-conference season finally tip off Big 12 play at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., where the Cowboys host 22nd-ranked Texas Tech.
After barely squeaking past McNeese State 76-75 in a non-lined home game on New Year’s Day, the Red Raiders came back and dominated UTEP on Sunday, winning 86-78 as a one-point home favorite. Texas Tech, which averages 80.4 ppg (46.6 percent), has tallied 74 points or more in 11 of its 14 games this year, including the last eight in a row. On the downside, Tech’s last two losses both came on the road (90-75 at New Mexico as an eight-point underdog and 85-83 at Wichita State as a six-point pup).
Oklahoma State rebounded from last Saturday’s 63-59 loss at Rhode Island as a two-point underdog with a 79-61 thrashing of Coppin State in Tuesday’s non-lined home contest. The Cowboys are 6-1 in their last seven games (3-1 ATS in lined play), and like Texas Tech they’ve been filling the bucket, scoring 77 points or more eight times and at least 65 points in all but two games. Oklahoma State has won 13 straight home games, going 8-0 this season, but only two were against Division I opponents (1-0-1 ATS).
The Cowboys’ current home winning streak began with an 81-80 win over Texas Tech last February, but they came up way short as a 12½-point underdog. Oklahoma State followed that two weeks later with a 92-82 win in Lubbock as a 1½-point road favorite, and they’ve now beaten the Red Raiders three straight times (2-1 ATS). Prior to the Cowboys’ win in Lubbock last year, the home team had won seven straight regular-season meetings (4-3 ATS). However, Texas Tech is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Stillwater, and the favorite has cashed in four of the last five series clashes.
The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Meanwhile, going back to Valentine’s Day of last year, Oklahoma State is on a 16-3-1 ATS roll in lined action (5-0-1 at home). The Cowboys are on further moneymaking surges of 21-7-2 at home, 13-3-1 after a SU win and 5-1-1 on Saturday, and they covered in nine of their final 10 conference games last year, including four straight at Gallagher-Iba Arena.
Texas Tech carries “over” trends of 33-16-2 overall, 20-6 on the highway, 20-8-1 in Big 12 play, 6-2-1 on Saturday and 16-5 after a SU win. On the flip side, OSU is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-2 in league action and 4-1 versus winning teams. Also, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
Scott Delaney
UNLV at New Mexico
Are things unraveling down on Maryland Parkway for coach Lon Kruger?
The Rebels spent every ounce of energy in Provo, Utah the other night, and still came up short against 25th-ranked BYU Wednesday night, losing 77-73. If this game were being played at the Thomas and Mack Center, I might understand taking the Rebels here - but this is in the vaunted Pit!
This has always been one of the toughest places to play for any team, let alone a conference rival.
And with the Lobos coming in a tad upset after losing San Diego State the same night the Rebs lost to BYU, I have to give the edge to Steve Alford's crew.
New Mexico has split its last four ball games, but make note that both losses have come on the road. The Lobos have won 17 straight at home dating back to last season, and this season New Mexico is 9-0 on the hardwood and 6-2-1 against the number, outscoring visitors by more than 17 points per game (79.3-62).
UNLV isn't going to have enough in the tank at the end to win this one, let alone cover. I'll play the Lobos.
2♦ NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia at DALLAS
These teams are very familiar with each other so no one is going to be caught off guard or fooled.
Dallas is playing its finest defense of the season. In their last four games, the Cowboys held the Chargers to 20 points, the Saints to 17 and shut out the Redskins and Eagles. Dallas held the Eagles to 26 points lower than their scoring average, held the Redskins to 16 points lower than their scoring average, held the Chargers to eight points under their normal scoring output and held the Saints to 15 points less than what they normally score.
I'm not a fan of Wade Phillips as a head coach. But he is good defensively and he's gotten his unit to play more as a cohesive and consistent unit rather than rely just on a certain few talented playmakers such as DeMarcus Ware.
The Cowboys have been the only team to so far shut down Eagles star receiver and returner DeSean Jackson holding him to five receptions for 76 yards and no touchdowns. Only one of Jackson's receptions against Dallas has been for more than 10 yards.
The Cowboys have held the Eagles to a combined 16 points in two meetings. The Eagles have had two of their three lowest-scoring games of the season versus Dallas. The Eagles suffered a key injury two weeks ago against Denver losing center Jamaal Jackson for the season with a torn ACL. He had started 71 straight games. His loss was evident in last week's loss to Dallas.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have the talent and effective blitz schemes to bother Tony Romo, who is at his worst when heavily rushed. The Eagles have 44 sacks, the third-best mark in the NFL.
Expect the Eagles to give the Cowboys a lot more defensive looks than they did last week after falling behind and then playing a vanilla low-risk style that didn't work. The Eagles knew they would be playing Dallas again so they didn't want to tip their hand.
2♦ EAGLES/COWBOYS UNDER
Karl Garrett
New York at HOUSTON
The Knicks are listing Al Harrington as questionable for this one, but even if he can't make the post, mark the G-Man down for a play on New York plus the points.
The Knickerbockers are at 15-20 now for the year, and have been a surprise thus far. They bring a 3-game winning streak into this one, and are 7-1 against the spread versus the NBA Southwest Division.
The Rockets on the other hand have gone just 2-6 against the spread their last 8 games, and come back home after 3 straight losses on the road.
Series numbers show the Knicks halting an 8 game series losing streak the last time these teams met last January.
New York has been getting the job done, and I like them to get it done one more time in Houston this Saturday night.
Take the points.
3♦ NEW YORK
Chris Jordan
Duke -7 at GEORGIA TECH
I don't know whether or not it's cause I am still pissed at Georgia Tech for losing for me in the Bowl Games, or if it's because I am becoming a believer of Duke basketball (a hard thing for UNLV fans to admit!)
Whatever the case, I have to side with the right side today and play the Blue Devils in this one, as they should have no trouble getting past the Jackets today.
The Blue Devils, riding a seven-game winning streak, come in after devouring Iowa State by 21 (as a 12'-point favorite) on a neutral court in Chicago on Wednesday.
Since being upset at Wisconsin on Dec. 2, Coach K's troops have steamrolled seven foes by an average of 30.1 points per game.
The Blue Devils have scored at least 74 points during this win streak and have topped 70 points in 11 of 14 games. At the other end of the court, defense is holding serve, as the opposition has been limited to less than 60 points seven times.
G Tech, which had won three straight non-conference wins since opening the ACC-slate with a loss to Florida State, comes in after losing to intra-state rival Georgia on Tuesday, 73-66.
Quite possibly looking ahead, I don't blame the Jackets, who have been owned by Coach K and company for about 11 years. Since the 1998-99 campaign,
Duke is 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS against Tech, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 visits to Alexander Memorial Coliseum.
Lay the road chalk.
5♦ DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Bobby Maxwell
UNLV +6 at NEW MEXICO
I just keep dominating the FREE plays, improving to 45-19, inclduing 22-5 over the last 27 days, after scoring the winner with the Warriors over the Kings on Friday night. Today I'm on the college hardwood for a comp winner as I go with UNLV grabbing the points at New Mexico.
I know UNLV has dropped two straight games, but this is a damn good basketball team that goes out every night and gives everything they have for coach Lon Kruger. Look for them to ride into the Pit in New Mexico tonight and certainly cover and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them steal a win.
The Rebels went there last year and lost a thriller 73-69 in OT, cashing as five-point underdogs. And in 2007 the Rebels went to New Mexico and got the outright win 85-83. UNLV has won five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Wednesday, UNLV lost a tough one at BYU, falling 77-73 but cashing as a 7 ½-point pup. They have gotten the cash in four of their last five overall and they were riding a five-game winning streak before running into a red-hot USC team in Hawaii on Christmas Day. This team is deep and has several players who aren’t afraid to get after it on defense.
The Rebels have allowed just 61.6 points a game over the last five and they’ve held the opposition to 39.7 percent shooting from the floor in those five contests.
UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five roadies while New Mexico is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against Mountain West Conference rivals. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes between these two and I’m banking on the ‘dog rising up again. Play UNLV today!
2♦ UNLV
Dominic Fazzini
West Virginia at NOTRE DAME +3'
I was on the wrong side of Washington's loss to Arizona State with my complimentary selection Friday night, but I'm still 54-35-1 over the past 89 days, including a run of 37-22-1 over the last 59. And I'm not going to lose two consecutive days!
I know West Virginia has a strong team this season, but I'm not quite sure why it's favored tonight at Notre Dame. The Mountaineers have lost 10 straight games in South Bend, not winning there since Jan. 17, 1987.
West Virginia has had problems with its interior defense this season, and now it's going to be severely tested by Irish star Luke Harangody, who is averaging 25 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, and who averaged 26.5 points in two games against the Mountaineers last season.
The Irish are also getting consistent scoring from forward Tim Abromaitis (15.3 ppg) and guard Ben Hansbrough (12.2 ppg), and are averaging 82.9 ppg this season.
Notre Dame is 11-1 SU at home this season, and West Virginia is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of up 6 1/2 points, including 1-7 ATS when favored in that range on the road. Take the Irish to cover the number as a home underdog tonight.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Brett Atkins
I've got a free winner for you today on the college hardwood as I play UNLV on the road in New Mexico.
This is just too many points to give the Rebels in this matchup. UNLV traditionally plays New Mexico tough in the Pit and this year will be no different as the Rebels have the deepest roster in the Mountain West Conference.
Last year, UNLV lost 73-69 in OT in New Mexico and got the cash as a five-point underdog. And it was 2007 when the Rebels went to New Mexico and pulled off the outright upset, part of a 5-2 run they have on the Lobos.
Wednesday, UNLV went to a damn good BYU squad and lost 77-73 but cashed as a 7 1/2-point 'dog. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies.
I'm playing the Rebels on the road today as this is too many points to give a team that has a damn good shot at winning outright.
4♦ UNLV
Jay McNeil
I took a loss with my free play Friday as the Magic continued to struggle and lost outright at Washington. I'm now 11-6 over the past 17 days, and I'm going to get back on the right track today with the Cowboys in their wild-card matchup against NFC East rival Philadelphia.
Dallas is playing as well as any team in the NFC right now, and thumped the Eagles 24-0 last weekend with the NFC East title on the line.
The Cowboys' defense has managed to produce two straight shutouts, and Tony Romo passed for 311 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Dallas has a superior running game, and Marion Barber and Felix Jones each ran for 91 yards last week against Philly, while the Eagles managed just 37 yards on the ground vs. the Cowboys.
The Dallas pass rush should be able to keep plenty of heat on Philly QB Donovan McNabb, and the Cowboys have done a great job limiting standout receiver DeSean Jackson, who has just five receptions for 76 yards and no TDs in two games vs. Dallas this season.
The ATS trends favor the Eagles, and the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996, but I think Dallas gets the job done today.
NOTE: Buy the half-point if your line is 3, 3 1/2 or 4, but remember to shop for the best line.
3♦ DALLAS
Joel Tyson
"Hammer-Time" in Lexington on Saturday afternoon, as the Georgia Bulldogs come calling on the Wildcats.
Georgia stunned Kentucky at Rupp Arena last March, winning outright as the 17 1/2-point underdog. You can assume that result will be fresh in the minds of this year's undefeated Wildcats program, and while Georgia is improved - as evidenced by their upset of Georgia Tech - they are still 1-4 both straight up, and against the spread away from home this season.
Kentucky has covered in their last pair of wins, and in 5 of their last 7 overall.
Lay the wood!
5♦ KENTUCKY
Pete Angelo
Connecticut at Georgetown
Connecticut rolls in after winning two straight conference covers, with wins over Notre Dame and Seton Hall. And with a 7-2 run coming into this contest, I think I am better suited to roll with the Huskies in this one.
Jim Calhoun's boys have seen some awfully tough competition and will be much more prepared what could be a physical battle with the Hoyas.
I know Georgetown is tough defensively, but the Huskies are in double revenge from being swept last season and triple revenge dating back two seasons.
Schedule strength and the mental edge are good enough for me in this Big East battles, and I give the nod to Connecticut.
2♦ CONNECTICUT
Chuck O'Brien
Take Minnesota and lay the points against Ohio State in college hoops action Saturday.
The Buckeyes have lost all three of their road games this year – going 0-3 ATS – including a pair of Big Ten road setbacks to Wisconsin (65-43) and Michigan (73-64). Now they head to Minnesota, where the Gophers are 9-0 SU and 6-2 ATS, winning by an average of almost 30 points per game (87-57.3). Peel back to the end of last year’s Big Ten campaign, and Minnesota is on a 13-1 roll at home (9-4 ATS).
Last year, the Gophers scored nine-point home win over Ohio State as a 3 ½-point favorite; the home team has won and covered the last four in this series; and the chalk has gotten the job done in each of the last six Buckeyes-Gophers battles.
Prior to pummeling lowly Indiana earlier this week, Ohio State had been in an 0-6 pointspread. Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered in six of its last eight overall. Until the Buckeyes prove they can compete on the road against a quality opponent, you’ve got to continue fading them, especially against a quality team like Minnesota, which is eager to atone for Tuesday’s 19-point Big Ten loss at No. 4 Purdue.
4♦ MINNESOTA GOPHERS