Nelly's Greensheet
TREND OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati is 1-9 the last ten games as home favorites
CINCINNATI (-2½) NY Jets (34)
The Bengals could have moved up to the #3 spot in the AFC playoff
picture with a win last week but it clearly was not a priority as the
Jets stormed to a 37-0 rout and Cincinnati posted only 72 yards of
offense in the loss, including a net of zero passing yards. While it
likely was not the goal to fall in that fashion, after the early results
Cincinnati had their choice of opponents, a win meant they would
face Houston, a loss meant they would face the Jets again. The
Houston camp will claim that was the cause for the lay down as the
Texans won at Cincinnati 28-17 earlier this season but in reality the
Jets were an incredibly motivated team that knew it needed to win.
Statistically the Jets finished with the best defense in the NFL in
terms of points allowed and yards allowed while also featuring the
top rushing offense in the league. The Jets faced a fairly tough
schedule as well to put up those numbers making this team a viable
threat in the postseason even though some may argue they don’t
belong. The Jets only have one road win against a playoff team and
that game was at Indianapolis, a win that should have an asterisk by
it. The Jets did win four games away from home but rookie QB Mark
Sanchez has been turnover prone and when he makes mistakes the
Jets generally lose. Cincinnati did not close the season strong,
losing three of the final four and needing a late rally to beat Kansas
City for the lone win. The Bengals failed to cover in six of the final
seven games of the season. Cincinnati swept Baltimore and
Pittsburgh and also won at Green Bay so there are some quality
wins on the resume but the offense is the worst among playoff
teams, averaging only 19 points per game on 309 yards. The
defense can be dominant at times and finished with outstanding
overall numbers even with a couple of poor late season results. QB
Carson Palmer certainly has more experience than Sanchez but
Palmer was injured in his only other playoff start. In a match-up of
fairly similar style teams, the Jets have been better lately through a
stronger schedule. This line has been adjusted low after last week’s
result but the Jets have proven more than capable. JETS BY 3
RATING 2: NY JETS (+2½) over Cincinnati
DALLAS (-3½) Philadelphia (45)
The Eagles had more at stake than Dallas last week but it was the
Cowboys that delivered the dominant win in one of the only
meaningful games for both sides last week. Statistically the
Cowboys have been the better team on both sides of the ball but in
reality these teams rate incredibly evenly despite Dallas winning
both regular season meetings. Philadelphia has never lost a wild
card playoff game under Andy Reid and Wade Phillips has never
won a playoff game as a head coach making for clear trends on the
sidelines but much like the much publicized Dallas woes in
December, the history does not mean much. After losing the first two
games in December, Dallas was the most impressive team in the
league the final three weeks, ending the undefeated season for New
Orleans and posting shutouts in the final two games to win the NFC
East. The Eagles won six in a row down the stretch but Philadelphia
went 0-4 this season against teams that are in the playoffs. The only
win for the Eagles against a winning team came against a 9-7
Atlanta team that was playing without QB Matt Ryan. The Eagles
definitely have big play potential with speedy receivers but the
offense lacks the bruising running game that Dallas offers and often
quickly is locked into a one-dimensional passing offense.
Philadelphia’s defense also lacks the toughness and intimidation
that carried the team in past playoff road wins. This line quickly
dropped from -4 to -3½ and it could fall further as like last week a lot
of action will be on the underdog Eagles but if Dallas plays its game
the Cowboys have been the better team. The losses for the
Cowboys this season have come by miniscule margins and often in
games where they were statistically dominant so in reality value is
still with Dallas as a small home favorite. It is tough to beat a team
three times in a season however and Dallas is a team that has failed
in several big moments which could keep this game interesting and
will keep us from a stronger selection. COWBOYS BY 6
RATING 1: DALLAS (-3½) over Philadelphia
PLAYBOOK
CINCINNATI over NY Jets by 6
If you saw Rex Ryan standing on the sidelines during New York’s
Sunday night rout of the Bengals, you would have thought he was
the cat who just ate the canary. Looking at the size of him, we know
that wouldn’t even have been enough for an appetizer! Like a fat kid
locked in a candy store, everything has fallen into place for ol’ Rex.
However, we’re not about to break bread with the 1st-year HC – not
with the dog 14-2 ATS this season in Cincy games. We realize it’s
tough to fade the loop’s top-ranked defense but our database points
out that teams off a shutout win with no rest are just 1-4 SU and ATS in
the opening round of the playoffs. In fact, visiting teams in the playoffs
off a shutout win are an anorexic 1-8 ATS since 1980. Unless you’ve
been locked in an electrical shed with no power, you’re well aware that
this is the first of three ‘right-back-rematches.’ And because we knew
you’d ask: since 1988, opening round NFL playoff games involving
these season-ending rematches have seen avenging teams go 6-4
SU and 6-3-1 ATS. With the Bengals Cinco-and-0 ATS in the playoffs
versus an opponent off an ATS win of six or more points, you can see
why we think Ryan has bitten off more then he can chew in this trip to
the Queen City. It’s been 19 years since the Cats last tasted victory in
the postseason and – we can’t believe we’re saying this – they may be
hungrier than Rex to bring home another one. We’ll prowl with the
hosts in Round Two!
Philadelphia over DALLAS by 1
The Cowboys exorcised a lot of December demons to make the
postseason this year but can they stop a Linda Blair-like 0-6
SU playoff streak? Their 2-4 SU and ATS mark versus division
foes in the playoffs since 1980 says no. So does Andy Reid’s 6-1 ATS
log as a playoff puppy. In fact, the Philadelphia HC has yet to lose in
the playoffs as a dog of four or less points, posting a perfect 3-0 SU
and ATS record. Reid also doesn’t take kindly to NFC East losses,
posting a solid 22-11-1 ATS mark with division revenge, including
14-5-1 ATS when taking points. We will point out that teams off a
season-ending shutout loss are 0-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs since
1980 but our database reminds us that division playoff dogs with an
equal or better record than their counterparts are a not-so-surprising
10-5 SU and 10-4-1 ATS. Yes, the Pokes looked like world beaters in
their 24-0 shellacking of the Eagles last week and some experts have
now made them the favorites to reach Miami in February. We’re not
one of them. As we mentioned earlier, teams off a shutout win with no
rest are just 1-4 SU and ATS in the opening round of the playoffs. We’ll
also mention that Reid is a healthy 14-7 SU lifetime versus Dallas and
has never dropped three straight to the ‘Boys. The clincher? Philly’s
7-0 SU mark in playoff openers under the veteran coach. Romo and
company may be singing a different December tune these days but
it’s the same old playoff song in ‘Big D.’ Round Two goes to the Birds
LOGICAL APPROACH
New York Jets (19-7 S/U, 9-7 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 S/U, 7-9 ATS)
Opening Line: Cincinnati - 3, currently - 2 ½; Opening Total 34 ½, currently 34 ½ In last week's game the Jets came out with clear intensity while the Bengals just went through the motions despite pregame proclamations that they were intent on winning and knocking the Jets out of the Playoffs. Barely minutes into the game the Jets took charge and never let up. It's easy to write that game off as a fluke and to believe the Bengals will reverse the result in the Wild Card game. But the Jets bring some very solid credentials into the game on both sides of the football. They led the league in rushing offense (172 ypg), total defense (252 ypg) and scoring defense (14.8 ppg). The Bengals rank close behind in the same defensive stats but are less productive on offense running the ball. They do have the better pass attack with veteran QB Carson Palmer rating a solid edge over Jets' rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Cincinnati does not blow out foes as a rule. 3 of their wins were by exactly a FG and 3 more were by a TD or less. The Jets have 3 road wins by 17 or more points, although against far less potent teams than they''ll face here. The Jets' combination of a strong running game and their aggressive and effective defense gives them a real shot at pulling the upset. Getting a FG presents an attractive option with an outright upset not a shock, even with a rookie QB making his first Playoff start on the road. The Jets have shown they do not rely on their QB to make plays, but rather to just avoid mistakes. Head coach Ryan and his staff will try to limit the number of chances Sanchez takes and will gladly relinquish the football and rely on his defense rather than have Sanchez take too many chances. This game will be very physical and surely not as lopsided as last week. But the result could well be the same. The call is for the Jets to pull the upset, winning 19-16 and making the
NEW YORK JETS a 3Star Selection
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5 S/U, 9-7 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (11-5 S/U, 9-7 ATS)
Opening Line: Dallas - 4, currently - 4; Opening Total 45, currently 45 Prior to last week's showdown in Dallas the Eagles were one of the hottest teams in the league, having won 6 in a row. Yet only one of those wins -- at Atlanta -- came against a team that finished the season with a winning record. Fact is that against teams that finished 10-6 or better Philly was 0-4 both straight up and ATS. Besides the two losses to the Cowboys Philly also lost to New Orleans (without QB Donovan McNabb) and San Diego. Part of the Eagles' problems has been their inability or reluctance to run the football. McNabb leads a potent passing attack with DeSean Jackson the next great wideout in the league. Dallas has defensed the Eagles' biggest big play threat well, limiting him to just 5 catches in their two meetings. Dallas' defense has come up big over the second half of the season and shut out a pair of Division rivals to end the regular season. The Cowboys allowed more than 21 points just twice this season. Puzzlingly, both games were against the New York Giants. Dallas has a lot of negative history to overcome, having lost 6 straight Playoff games since their last Playoff win in 1996. But this team is very well balanced on both sides of the football. QB Tony Romo had an excellent season, limiting turnovers and not always trying to make the big play. Philly's defense was just average, down a notch from the past few seasons. The Cowboys are playing with quiet confidence and although it's often thought that beating a team three times in a season is difficult we need look back no further than last season when Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore three times en route to their Super Bowl win. Yet a season earlier the Cowboys lost at home to the Giants after having won both regular season meetings. In fact, over the past decade there have been 7 teams seeking to complete a 3 game sweep of a Divisional foe in the Playoffs and the sweep has been accomplished 5 times. Last week's result inflates this line above a FG but the Cowboys earned last week's win in what was an important game for both teams with the Division title and, more importantly, a Wild Card home game at stake. First Dallas ended their notorious December woes. Last week they won a regular season finale for the first time since 1999. Now they'll take the next step on their path to redemption with their first Playoff win since 1996. Dallas completes a 3 game sweep of Philly with a 24-17 win, making
DALLAS a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 1 Star Selection
Sports Memo
Best Bet: Cincinnati -2.5
Situational - While not exactly handed a postseason berth, New York got less than
stellar efforts from the opposition of its last two games. As a result, they find themselves
in the postseason for the first time in three years. Cincinnati lost three of
four down the stretch but did what it had to do to clinch home field in the first
round. Fundamental - Statistically, New York holds a slight edge on defense but
not by much. Cincinnati typically has offensive success with a moderate amount
of balance with both the pass and run. New York has proven that no matter how
great the run, its needs something from the passing game. The last two weeks,
they’ve faced arguably a half a games worth of full effort from the opposition yet
Sanchez was a combined 20-of-35 for 169 yards and no TDs. At some point, he’ll
need to make some big plays because the Bengals’ run defense won’t allowed 257
yards like it did last week. Game Notes - Palmer was 1-of-11 for 0 yards in last
week’s loss. Final Take - At under a field goal, we’ll take the Bengals who are the
better overall team but not reflected as such due to a supposed late season slide.
Best Bet: Philadelphia +4
Situational - Last week, Dallas won the NFC East by defeating Philadelphia 24-0.
It was clear after halftime that the Eagles were packing it in. Dallas came out fired
up and posted a second consecutive shutout. Fundamental - Both teams bring
a ton of pressure up front. Donovan McNabb has been sacked 19 times the last
six games of the series and didn’t look all that comfortable last week even when
the Eagles were trying. Romo had good protection for most of the year, especially
down the stretch. The Eagles have lost the last four in the series when they
failed to gain 100 yards on the ground. Game Notes - Dallas has gone under the
total in eight of its last nine games. Tony Romo has thrown 10 TDs and 10 INTs,
while being sacked 16 times in eight career games against Dallas. The Eagles are
35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog. Final Take - We won’t put a
lot of stock in last week’s game as both teams are fairly even in our book. Philadelphia
certainly has the better pedigree when it comes to performing well in
the postseason. In getting more than a field goal, we’ll gladly take the underdog.
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Sacramento
The Kings are one of many surprises this season as several teams have
exceeded expectations thought the first two months of the campaign.
Not necessarily teams of playoff caliber, many of these surprises are
fueled by strong home cour t results. Sub-.500 teams like Toronto,
Sacramento, Charlotte and Chicago are a combined 47-19 at home
but just 13-52 straight up on the road. This wide disparity provides
us with plenty of value in isolating good situations on strong home
cour ts of other wise mediocre teams. Sacramento fits the profile (+8.2
ppg scoring at home) and with Denver off a huge marquee matchup
against the Cleveland Cavaliers, there is a likely scenario that the Nuggets
come in less than focused. Fur thermore Sacramento has already
shown the ability to complete, beating Denver last month, 106-101, as
the Kings had five different players with double figures while Denver
shot only 41.5% from the floor. With plenty of depth and a youth oriented
roster to weather the back-to-back (fifth in the NBA in scoring
off no rest), well back the Kings as the solid home cour t underdog.
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Vanderbilt
The SEC opener for both teams takes place in Nashville, where the Commodores
should be installed as a small favorite. Both of these teams
have been a little disappointing thus far, with Vandy losing to Western
Kentucky, Illinois and Cincinnati to go with its 10 wins. They have been
solid at home as usual, winning four straight and an early season victory
over a sound Missouri club. However, overall the Commodores just
haven’t played as good as many people thought they would headed
into the campaign. Big man AJ Ogilvy needs to pick his game up for the
‘Dores to be a real contender in the SEC, as he is averaging a modest 12
ppg and 6 rpg. Florida has also been inconsistent, losing three straight in
the middle of December to Syracuse, Richmond and South Alabama. This
will serve as their second true road game of the year; the last of which
was a full court buzz beater win against NC State. There should also be
a bit of attention placed on the Gators winning both matchups comfortably
last season, including a 25-point win here in Nashville. You should
get a moderate price here at the Commodores are worth a play up to -8.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Philadelphia
I’m willing to lay what should be a small number with the Sixers who concluded
a solid 3-2 West Coast swing last Sunday night. In their three victories against
Sacramento, Portland and Denver, Philadelphia was able to shoot 50% or better
from the field which indicates things are beginning to mesh. The return to the
backcourt of versatile scorer Lou Williams has not only given the team some
offensive balance, but combining him with Allen Iverson has given Philly the
speed to play their preferred up-tempo style. Bench help has been visible as
well as Rodney Carney has provided three-point shooting while Elton Brand,
Mareese Speights and Jrue Holiday are helping to form a productive and energetic
unit. Bench depth figures to be a factor in this contest since Toronto’s reserve
corps is currently thin and very mediocre. Point guard Jose Calderon (hip
injury) should be back for this one but his minutes and productivity will likely be
limited until he gets a few games under his belt. First home game after a long
road trip is usually the hardest but that will be Wednesday against Washington.
In this spot, expect Philadelphia to respond to the Friday night home crowd
and record a solid victory over Toronto which is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as visitors.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Charlotte
Hats off to the Grizzlies as they’ve played strong basketball over the last
month and as a result, start the week with a respectable 16-16 record.
But this is one early season trend that I expect to fade upcoming. I’ve
never been a fan of teams that want to win by just outscoring their opponents.
It can work for stretches and even for some teams, but in the
case of Memphis, I think the philosophy is going to hurt in the long run.
This is a team made up of all offensive players including the likes of Zach
Randolph and Rudy Gay. They’ll find themselves in a difficult situation on
Saturday playing their fourth game in five nights, while the Bobcats will
be rested and ready. The Bobcats have been up and down this season but
the one constant has been effort on the defensive end. They are comprised
of a strong contingent of defensive-minded and energy guys and
as a result, lead the league in scoring defense at 92.5 ppg. I see those
attributes as being the perfect matchup against Memphis. Charlotte has
the capabilities to make defensive stops while also running off of Memphis
misses. This play sets up to be extremely favorable for the home side
DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is obviously the odd man out when it comes to the Ohio
Valley Conference, located about 250 miles from its nearest conference foe.
As a result, road wins don’t come that often and home wins are no easy task
either with the program in transition after bottoming out in 2007-08 with
a 7-22 record. But in head coach James Green’s second season, we feel this
is a squad that can be competitive on the road and really take advantage
of its unique location. The year’s Gamecocks feature six returnees and two
transfers in Jay Strowbridge (Nebraska) and Trenton Marshall (junior college)
who currently combine to average 30 ppg. Despite winning just over
30% of its conference games the last three-plus seasons, Jacksonville State
is a perfect 6-0 SU at home against travel partners Eastern Kentucky and
Morehead State – the longest road trips in the conference. What makes Saturday’s
play even more effective is Morehead has a road game at Tennessee
Tech on Thursday and on short rest, must travel to a gym where it has lost
its last four games. Jacksonville State will be playing the second of back-toback
home games with a tilt against EKU on Thursday. Take the home team.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Vanderbilt
With the exception of their win over an overrated Michigan State team on a neutral
court, this young Gators team hasn’t really been tested away from home.
Florida’s two toughest games in the last month (Syracuse and Richmond) both
resulted in losses and both were in semi-home/neutral environments. They just
went to NC State last Sunday and needed a 75-footer to win. Now they walk
into a beehive in Nashville where Vanderbilt has gone 53-7 in the last four seasons.
The Gators’ ineffi cient offense will be up against it versus a tough defensive
club like Vanderbilt. They simply will not get easy looks inside with 7-footer
AJ Ogivly roaming the paint. Complicating matters is the fact that Florida is
fi lled with European-style bigs and guards who fail to consistently hit outside
shots. The two most frequent three-point shooters (Walker and Boynton) are
sporting percentages of 31% and 26%. I don’t want to get “revenge” happy
here but Florida ran the Commodores out of the building twice last year by
an average of nearly 20 points per win. As a result, Vandy should be fi red up
this weekend. And, having already beaten a very good Missouri side here in
Nashville, the confi dence is there to go with that inspiration. Take Vanderbilt.
HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Gonzaga
After losing four top-fl ight starters from last season’s team, Gonzaga was expected
to be down. That however has not been the case with the team showing
very well in games against some of the nation’s best. They feel just short
against a veteran Michigan State team on the road and followed that up by winning
all three games in the Maui Invitational. For a very young team they have
played a challenging schedule and were competitive in two of their three losses.
The one bad loss at Duke simply got away from them as head coach Mark Few
called it an aberration. The Bulldogs have absolutely dominated the WCC, losing
one game the last two years. They appear ready to make another run in
2009-10. The Pilots looked good early in the year starting out 5-0 and earning
a top 25 ranking. Since the strong start however they have lost fi ve out of their
last nine games. Part of the reason for the their hot start was the strong threepoint
shooting but opponents now are taking away the outside shot and forcing
Portland to beat them inside. With the Bulldogs’ tremendous size it is going
to be very diffi cult for the Pilots to consistently score in the paint. The gap is still
sizable which means backing the road team is your top option for this contest.
Insider Angles
The New York Jets are extremely fortunate to be in these playoffs, as their last two opponents, the Indianapolis Colts and these Cincinnati Bengals, both laid down, enabling the Jets to get in.
However, that does not change the fact that the Jets are an excellent prototype for a good playoff team, so the Bengals may have made a mistake by not giving it their all last Sunday and thus setting up this rematch.
After all, the keys to winning in the playoffs are defense and a good running game, and the Jets have the distinction of leading the NFL in both! They are allowing just 14.8 points and a miniscule 251.6 yards of offense per game, limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per rush and a fantastic 4.9 yards per pass attempt. At the same time, the Jets rushing attack is averaging an impressive 172.2 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Begals stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. Granted, the season finale should not even count, but they did not play well in the other three games either, as the lone win over this stretch was by just a 17-10 count over the lowly Kansas City Chiefs in their division-clinching game. This is not the same Bengals team that looked so impressive earlier in the year.
Finally, the biggest concern for Jets backers appears to be how rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will perform in his first playoff game. While those concerns are well founded, we do not expect the Jets to put the ball in the air much here this week, so look for that weakness to be hidden until the Jets face one of the AFC heavyweights next week.
Of course, they would first need to beat Cincinnati this week to reach that point, and although it will not be as easy as the 37-0 pasting over an indifferent Bengals team last week, we do expect the Jets to use their running game and defense to win this rematch also.
NFL Wildcard Pick: Jets +2.5
POWERSWEEP
The Jets forced the Bengals to bench starters early LW in frigid weather when their 2nd drive went 21 plays in 11:11. NY dominated in the shutout. They Jets had a 320-72 yd edge thanks to a 41:14 T.O.P. CIN is 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS at home TY outgaining teams 341-287 with a 22-13 avg score. The Jets are 5-3 SU and ATS on the road with a 328-277 yd edge and 23-16 avg score. CIN is 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS vs foes with a winning record TY while the Jets are 3-3 SU and ATS counting the IND game but not LW's matchup. OAK and HOU are the 2 common foes with CIN going 0-2 SU and ATS being outgained 374-322 (-2 TO's) losing by an 24-17 avg score. The Jets beat both SU and ATS by a combined 62-7 score with a 455-223 avg yd edge (+5 TO's). Both teams are fairly even in experience except at QB where Palmer has played in the post season before and has a huge edge in games played.
Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the 2008 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 defense. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 games of a year (202 ypg 59% 4-2) since 1969. He then avg'd 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU and ATS) until Ryan got involved with the "color code system." Since then he's avg 131 ypg (59%) 2-4 except for the TB game (knee sprain). The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 for the team and TE Keller rounds out a decent receiving unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB Jones who along with SD's Tomlinson and STL's Jackson are the only active RB's with 5 straight 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 games together TY. Over the L6 reg season games the defense has held opposing QB's to a combined 33.7 passer rating with 1054 ypg (43%) 1-10. The Jets are the 1st team to lead the NFL in scoring defense, total defense and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB for '09 is Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn't allowed an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB's are Scott and Harris who didn't miss a beat with the loss of NT **** in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sacks it's misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sacks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of **** and NYJ have allowed 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#18) which isn't bad as they've cycled 7 P's thru since the draft and aren't the same with the loss of Washington.
With the return of a healthy Carson Palmer the expectations were for CIN to return to its pass oriented days but TY's #24 offense has been very balanced (51/49 run/pass) thanks to Benson. Despite missing 2.5 games with a hip injury, Benson has set a CIN record with six 100 yd games with 2 coming vs the Ravens. While the run game has been an asset the #26 pass attack has struggled. While Ochocinco has rebounded after LY (53 rec, 10.2) with 72 (14.5), FA pickup Coles hasn't filled the shoes of Houshmanzadeh (92 rec, 9.8 LY). The loss of Chris Henry removed the speed threat of the passing game and allows defenses to double Ochocinco. They lost TE Reggie Kelly (Achilles) in the preseason and the TE spot has been below avg. The most improved unit in the NFL is arguably CIN's OL which gave up 51 sacks, 3.9 ypc and only three 100 yd rushing games LY. Only RG Bobbie Williams is in the same spot as the 2008 unit and TY's OL has started 15 games together, allowed 29 sacks, seven 100 yd rushing games with a 4.1 ypc all without 1st RD DC Andre Smith for most of the year. CIN calls itself the "Scrap Iron" defense as it's cobbled together with young players and FA castoffs. The best player on the DL is run stuffer Peko (23 tkl) and CIN allowed 82 ypg (3.8) prior to him missing 4 games with a knee scope and 104 ypg (4.0) when he was out. The biggest injury for CIN's #4 defense TY was the loss of DE Odom (Achilles) and he still leads CIN with 8 sacks but 11 players have 1 sack TY. The LB's also took a hit with the loss of Maualuga (broken leg) who along with the return of Keith Rivers was forming the backbone of a solid unit for the future. The strength of the defense is the CB's as Hall and Joseph became the 1st Bengals since 1985 to have 6 int each. CIN's special teams are below avg (#19) though K Graham remains very dependable (4th in career FG accuracy).
We can excuse the Bengals' lack luster effort vs the NYJ last week as on a cold, windy night they lacked motivation. This week we'll back CIN with a solid D and an experienced QB that can not only decipher the blitz packages from NY, but will be able to use them to his advantage. The same cannot be said for NYJ QB Sanchez making his first playoff start in what will be a rabid Bengals stadium.
FORECAST: CINCINNATI over NY Jets RATING: 4★
While this is one of 3 rematches from LW it was the only one with both teams having something to play for. That doesn't bode well for an Eagles squad that was embarrassed getting shutout 24-0. Prior to LW, Dallas had dropped 3 straight ATS to Philly at home losing 2 of the 3 SU. These 2 teams almost played identical schedules so instead of comparing who they both played we will let you know about the teams they didn't face. Dallas beat SEA 38-7 and lost to GB 17-7 while Philly beat CHI 24-20 and also beat SF 27-13. The Cowboys finished 6-2 SU at home and were 5-3 ATS outgaining foes by an avg of 403-313. Philly meanwhile went 5-2 SU/ATS away but after getting outgained LW by a 474-228 mark they finished the season getting outgained 338-330 but still did outscore opponents by an avg of 25-20.
The Eagles are one of the most forward thinking teams in the NFL and moved to ensure their offensive continuity in the offseason. While still very pass heavy (59/41 pass/run) TY the offense was insulated from the injury to RB Westbrook who had been the focus of Andy Reid's system. McNabb is the focal point for the #11 offense and passed for 273 ypg (58%) with a 7-4 ratio in Dec. PHI's offense lived and died by the big play TY and the best weapon is WR Jackson whose 18.5 ypc is #1 in the NFL. TE Celek had a breakout season in his 3rd year placing 6th in the NFL for rec's by a TE and 4th in rec yds. PHI has had problems with its #3 WR TY due to injuries but rookie Maclin is 3rd on the team in rec's despite a foot injury which hampered him at the end of the year. PHI's #29 run game has never been a priority for Reid but the combo of McCoy, Westbrook and FB Weaver combined for 1,234 yds (4.3) which would be the #9 rusher in 2009. PHI's OL was a mess at the start of the season due to injuries and line did not practice as a unit in preseason. While the OL has had 72 starts together they have fielded 5 different OL combos and are 21st in sacks all'd TY (1 every 14.6). The OL also sustained a huge loss when Ctr Jackson (ACL) went down vs DEN and it struggled in the season finale. PHI's #12 defense is a bit of surprise TY especially since all 3 starting LB's spots are manned by different players vs the opening week. PHI made a great trade with STL midseason picking up Witherspoon who can play WLB/MLB but the Eagles have been very vulnerable to quality receiving TE's TY. PHI finished 3rd in sacks by TY and they do have an elite pass rusher in DE Cole (12.5) who finished 6th in the NFL in sacks and DE Parker (8) tied for 20th. PHI has traditionally been very deep at CB under Reid and the tandem of Samuel and Brown have 14 int combined TY and Hanson is a reliable nickel CB. PHI is only 25th in our special teams rankings despite a great year by Jackson (15.2) on PR's as their KR def is giving up 23.5 ypr. K Akers has had a strong year hitting 12 of 16 from 40+.
What makes TY's DAL team better than before is addition by subtraction as the team got rid of distractions. Romo had a banner season breaking his own franchise records for yds, completions and 300 yd games (8) despite some questionable playcalling during the year by OC Garrett. He also had a career low 9 int with 2 of those being on fluky plays that weren't his fault and he tied Rodgers and Brees for 2nd with 39 passes of 25 or more yds. Fifteen went to Austin who wasn't even a starting WR prior to the KC game. Austin finished 2009 3rd in rec yards and 7th in ypc. Witten remains Romo's favorite target and finished 2nd behind Clark for rec's and rec yds by a TE. Crayton is a very fast but inconsistent #3 WR and he made up for his demotion avg 12.1 on PR avg TY. Roy Williams has become a very expensive afterthought and decoy in the DAL system mainly due to his 44% catch rate TY. DAL has one of the deepest RB units in the NFL with Barber being the power back, Jones the speed option and Choice being a balance between the 2. Together they have combined for the #7 rush attack and their 4.8 is tied with CAR for 2nd TY. The OL has only had 2 lineups TY with 4 of the 5 OL starting all 16 games. The #9 defense is built around OLB Ware who tied for 7th with 11 sacks TY. DAL was built big at LB which has helped it finish 4th in rush defense TY and only allowed 55 ypg rush (3.0) in its L4 games. DAL #20 pass defense is a bit misleading as while they don't have a true passing Safety they have good CB's and teams have had to air it out more due to the offense. DAL has our #4 special teams TY due to good coverage units, McBriar having a 39.9 net and Crayton on PR's.
Dallas has gotten great pressure on McNabb with 8 sacks in the 2 games this year and the 2 games have totaled 36 and 24 points. We did use the Under LW as a NC Sports Complimentary Totals Play but we'll reverse directions here. Philly had avg'd 31 pts the L4 before Dallas and struggled without their center who makes the line calls. Now with another week of work we expect them to be able to stretch the field while Romo continues to light it up and the Cowboys have averaged 429 ypg the last 5 weeks.
FORECAST: Cowboys/Eagles OVER RATING: 1★
NORTHCOST POWERPLAY
The Jets forced the Bengals to bench starters early LW in frigid weather when their 2nd drive went 21
plays in 11:11. NY dominated in the shutout. They Jets had a 320-72 yd edge thanks to a 41:14 T.O.P. CIN
is 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS at home TY outgaining teams 341-287 with a 22-13 avg score. The Jets are 5-3 SU
and ATS on the road with a 328-277 yd edge and 23-16 avg score. CIN is 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS vs foes with
a winning record TY while the Jets are 3-3 SU and ATS counting the IND game but not LW's matchup. OAK
and HOU are the 2 common foes with CIN going 0-2 SU and ATS being outgained 374-322 (-2 TO's) losing
by an 24-17 avg score. The Jets beat both SU and ATS by a combined 62-7 score with a 455-223 avg yd
edge (+5 TO's). Both teams are fairly even in experience except at QB where Palmer has played in the post
season before and has a huge edge in games played. Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the 2008 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 defense. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the fi rst 3 games of a year (202 ypg 59% 4-2) since 1969. He then avg'd 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU and ATS) until Ryan got involved with the "color code system." Since then he's avg 131 ypg (59%) 2-4 except for the TB game (knee sprain). The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 for the team and TE Keller rounds out adecent receiving unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB Jones who along with SD's Tomlinson and STL's Jackson are the only active RB's with 5 straight 1,000 yd seasons. Jones fi nished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 games together TY. Over the L6 reg season games the defense has held opposing QB's to a combined 33.7 passer rating with 1054 ypg (43%) 1-10. The Jets are the 1st team to lead the NFL in scoring defense, total defense and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB for '09 is Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn't allowed an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB's are Scott and Harris who didn't miss a beat with the loss of NT **** in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sacks it's misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sacks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of **** and NYJ have allowed 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#18) which isn't bad as they've cycled 7 P's thru since the draft and aren't the same with the loss of Washington. With the return of a healthy Carson Palmer the expectations were for CIN to return to its pass oriented days but TY's #24 offense has been very balanced (51/49 run/pass) thanks to Benson. Despite missing 2.5 games with a hip injury, Benson has set a CIN record with six 100 yd games with 2 coming vs the Ravens. While the run game has been an asset the #26 pass attack has struggled. While Ochocinco has rebounded after LY (53 rec, 10.2) with 72 (14.5), FA pickup Coles hasn't fi lled the shoes of Houshmanzadeh (92 rec, 9.8 LY). The loss of Chris Henry removed the speed threat of the passing game and allows defenses to double Ochocinco. They lost TE Reggie Kelly (Achilles) in the preseason and the TE spot has been below avg. The most improved unit in the NFL is arguably CIN's OL which gave up 51 sacks, 3.9 ypc and only three 100 yd rushing games LY. Only RG Bobbie Williams is in the same spot as the 2008 unit and TY's OL has started 15 games together, allowed 29 sacks, seven 100 yd rushing games with a 4.1 ypc all without 1st RD DC Andre Smith for most of the year. CIN calls itself the "Scrap Iron" defense as it's cobbled together with young players and FA castoffs. The best player on the DL is run stuffer Peko (23 tkl) and CIN allowed 82 ypg (3.8) prior to him missing 4 games with a knee scope and 104 ypg (4.0) when he was out. The biggest injury for CIN's #4 defense TY was the loss of DE Odom (Achilles) and he still leads CIN with 8 sacks but 11 players have 1 sack TY. The LB's also took a hit with the loss of Maualuga (broken leg) who along with the return of Keith Rivers was forming the backbone of a solid unit for the future. The strength of the defense is the CB's as Hall and Joseph became the 1st Bengals since 1985 to have 6 int each. CIN's special teams are below avg (#19) though K Graham remains very dependable (4th in career FG accuracy). We can excuse the Bengals' lack luster effort vs the NYJ last week as on a cold, windy night they lacked motivation. PP doesn't have a lot of faith in the Bengals as it projects them to be outgained 216-192 here. Both HC's are former Ravens assistants & will be familiar with each others schemes. The injury status of Ochocinco is a big question here but CIN should have RB Benson. PP likes the Jets but we side with CIN so No Play.
NO PLAY: JETS 21 BENGALS 7
While this is one of 3 rematches from LW it was the only one with both teams having something to play for. That doesn't bode well for an Eagles squad that was embarrassed getting shutout 24-0. Prior to LW, Dallas had dropped 3 straight ATS to Philly at home losing 2 of the 3 SU. These 2 teams almost played identical schedules so instead of comparing who they both played we will let you know about the teams they didn't face. Dallas beat SEA 38-7 and lost to GB 17-7 while Philly beat CHI 24-20 and also beat SF 27-13. The Cowboys fi nished 6-2 SU at home and were 5-3 ATS outgaining foes by an avg of 403-313. Philly meanwhile went 5-2 SU/ATS away but after getting outgained LW by a 474-228 mark they fi nished the season getting outgained 338-330 but still did outscore opponents by an avg of 25-20. The Eagles are one of the most forward thinking teams in the NFL and moved to ensure their offensive continuity in the offseason. While still very pass heavy (59/41 pass/run) TY the offense was insulated from the injury to RB Westbrook who had been the focus of Andy Reid's system. McNabb is the focal point for the #11 offense and passed for 273 ypg (58%) with a 7-4 ratio in Dec. PHI's offense lived and died by the big play TY and the best weapon is WR Jackson whose 18.5 ypc is #1 in the NFL. TE Celek had a breakout season in his 3rd year placing 6th in the NFL for rec's by a TE and 4th in rec yds. PHI has had problems with its #3 WR TY due to injuries but rookie Maclin is 3rd on the team in rec's despite a foot injury which hampered him at the end of the year. PHI's #29 run game has never been a priority for Reid but the combo of McCoy, Westbrook and FB Weaver combined for 1,234 yds (4.3) which would be the #9 rusher in 2009. PHI's OL was a mess at the start of the season due to injuries and line did not practice as a unit in preseason. While the OL has had 72 starts together they have fi elded 5 different OL combos and are 21st in sacks all'd TY (1 every 14.6). The OL also sustained a huge loss when Ctr Jackson (ACL) went down vs DEN and it struggled in the season fi nale. PHI's #12 defense is a bit of surprise TY especially since all 3 starting LB's spots are manned by different players vs the opening week. PHI made a great trade with STL midseason picking up Witherspoon who can play WLB/MLB but the Eagles have been very vulnerable to quality receiving TE's TY. PHI fi nished 3rd in sacks by TY and they do have an elite pass rusher in DE Cole (12.5) who fi nished 6th in the NFL in sacks and DE Parker (8) tied for 20th. PHI has traditionally been very deep at CB under Reid and the tandem of Samuel and Brown have 14 int combined TY and Hanson is a reliable nickel CB. PHI is only 25th in our special teams rankings despite a great year by Jackson (15.2) on PR's as their KR def is giving up 23.5 ypr. K Akers has had a strong year hitting 12 of 16 from 40+. What makes TY's DAL team better than before is addition by subtraction as the team got rid of distractions. Romo had a banner season breaking his own franchise records for yds, completions and 300 yd games (8) despite some questionable playcalling during the year by OC Garrett. He also had a career low 9 int with 2 of those being on fl uky plays that weren't his fault and he tied Rodgers and Brees for 2nd with 39 passes of 25 or more yds. Fifteen went to Austin who wasn't even a starting WR prior to the KC game. Austin fi nished 2009 3rd in rec yards and 7th in ypc. Witten remains Romo's favorite target and fi nished 2nd behind Clark for rec's and rec yds by a TE. Crayton is a very fast but inconsistent #3 WR and he made up for his demotion avg 12.1 on PR avg TY. Roy Williams has become a very expensive afterthought and decoy in the DAL system mainly due to his 44% catch rate TY. DAL has one of the deepest RB units in the NFL with Barber being the power back, Jones the speed option and Choice being a balance between the 2. Together they have combined for the #7 rush attack and their 4.8 is tied with CAR for 2nd TY. The OL has only had 2 lineups TY with 4 of the 5 OL starting all 16 games. The #9 defense is built around OLB Ware who tied for 7th with 11 sacks TY. DAL was built big at LB which has helped it fi nish 4th in rush defense TY and only allowed 55 ypg rush (3.0) in its L4 games. DAL #20 pass defense is a bit misleading as while they don't have a true passing Safety they have good CB's and teams have had to air it out more due to the offense. DAL has our #4 special teams TY due to good coverage units, McBriar having a 39.9 net and Crayton on PR's. DAL simply dominated the line of scrimmage LW vs PHI with a 474-228 yd edge. The DAL defense took advantage of the loss of Jamaal Jackson & held them to just 37 yds rushing (3.7) which is low even by PHI standards. DAL also pulled in 4 sacks & 5 QB hits on 36 pass att’s keeping McNabb out of rhythm. PP calls for another low scoring game here but for DAL to once again dominate with an eerily similar 425-247 yd edge here. We are undecided here as Andy Reid isn’t likely to go in without a solid gameplan 2 Wks in a row so No Play.
NO PLAY: COWBOYS 23 EAGLES 14
VEGAS VIC
Eagles (+4) over COWBOYS
It was quite a struggle handicapping this game. Sunday, coming in on a six-game winning streak, and with a chance to get a first-round bye, the Birds never showed up. Wow, what an ugly non-effort. This week, the Eagles need to get back to that stretch run team. And it's not as simple as saying Dallas can't beat the Birds three times in one season. There have been 19 times where teams have met in the playoffs after one of those teams swept the season series. The team that swept has completed the hat trick 12 times. The difference here is Andy Reid. In his seven trips to the playoffs, Reid has a glittering 7-0 mark in first games, with an overall spread record of 6-2 in all road playoff games. One more stat to put into the mix: Since Andy took over, anytime the Eagles have scored seven or fewer, in the following game, they have covered 12 of 14. Not sure whether the Birds find the upset, so I'm calling for the Cowboys to advance with a 26-24 win.
Packers (+1) over CARDINALS
When Arizona found out before its Week 17 kickoff that its chance for a first-round bye was history, it played - or should we say, did not play - accordingly. Kurt Warner played only two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up. It'll be a different group of Cards on Sunday, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don't get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and defensive end Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on 'Zona. We are getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team, which has the best defense in the NFC and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run. It ain't gonna be a blowout like Sunday, but the Packers are best bet of the weekend as they roll into the second round.
BENGALS (-2) over Jets
Rex Ryan is turning out to be more colorful than his dad Buddy, saying that the Jets are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Guess Rex hasn't been to Vegas, where the odds on the New Yorkers' winning it all are 50-1, last among the 12 playoff teams. Much has been made of the Jets' win at Indy and the bagel given to Cincy, but these two teams basically mailed it in. And can Carson Palmer do any worse than 1-fo1, zero yards, and one interception? Don't think so. The Bengals played their starters, yes, but they knew the rematch with New York was a possibility, so they were not gonna give away anything. The four crucial elements that put me on Cincinnati are: 1) homefield advantage; 2) Cedric Benson, who rushed for 1,251, is back; 3) Mark Sanchez, the Jets' rookie QB who has thrown for 12 TDs and 20 picks; and, 4) New York's leading tackler, David Harris, has a sprained ankle.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Here's what we know: Wes Welker, Tom Brady's lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions, is gone with a knee injury. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who played quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I'll rip up my betting slip with a smile. Here's what we're not sure about: Brady could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he's Tom Brady, so we'll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move. Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal or cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers +1.25 over BOSTON
Let’s face it, last season the Bruins had a swagger about them and this year they do not. They’re still a good squad but last season they were tough to beat every time out. Now they’ll host the Rangers minus some key personnel that includes Patrice Bergeron and Marc Savard and that duo is responsible for a lot of the Bruins offense. This host has trouble scoring anyway and in fact, has scored two goals or less in seven of its last 10 games. The Rangers have picked up points in nine of its last 10 games with six wins and two OT losses over that stretch. They beat the Bruins last week ay MSG and there’s no reason they can’t do it again. And lastly, for some reason that’s not just a coincidence anymore, the dog has a big time winning percentage in these Saturday matinee games. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO -½ +1.03 over Colorado
The Sabres didn’t play its best game last night and they’ll go with Patrick Lalime in net but this is an extremely difficult spot for the Av’s in that they played a very physical game last night in Carolina. Now they’re asked to travel again for the sixth straight game and play a Sabres team that was at home last night and that’s 16-5-2 at home. Furthermore, the Av’s have dropped three of its last four with only win over that stretch coming against a Jackets squad that was in the midst of a 1-13 stretch. The Sabres have reeled off six in a row and get a five-day break after this one and really shouldn’t have that difficult a time here. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh -½ +1.10 over TORONTO
What a great spot fore the Penguins to get off the mattress. For one, the Maple Leafs penalty killing woes is becoming front page news in Toronto and you can see the Leafs way back on its heels when they’re trying to kill a penalty. The allowed two power-play goals last night and now the players are afraid to even take a penalty. The Leafs will play its third game in four days and waiting from them in Toronto is a struggling Pens team that will embark on a crucial five-game road trip beginning here. What better place to turn things around then on Hockey Night in Canada in Toronto. After losing 7-4 to the Flyers on Thursday, the Pens players had a closed door meeting and you might recall last season that under similar circumstances, that is, the team was struggling bad and embarking on a five game trip, they rallied, won all five games and never looked back. One has to figure the Penguins to be jacked up and ready to go here. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.30 over OTTAWA
You would simply have to be somewhat out of your mind to lay 3-2 on the Senators right now. Here’s a team that has serious goaltending problems that they can’t get away from. Leclaire or Elliott both are good for at least one softie a game and usually two. Against Washington on Thursday, Leclaire allowed three goals that Johnny Bower could have stopped. In addition, aside from being without Spezza and Alfredsson, forward Milan Michalek was injured against the Caps and now joins those two on the rack. Michalek has 16 goals this year and now another offensive player that also plays gritty and good defensively will be out. So, where is the offense going to come from? Mike Fisher hasn’t scored in about 16 games and Jonathan Cheechoo has scored about twice over the past three years. The Panthers are in a funk but this is a very decent team with a ton more firepower at the moment, a much more stable goaltending pair and frankly, this has to be considered the biggest overlay on today’s card, bar none. Play: Florida +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Anaheim +1.38 over NASHVILLE
The Preds are gritty, disciplined and tough as hell and they’re quietly one of the top teams in the NHL this year. However, they also may be this season’s biggest overachiever and I saw something in its last game that caught my eye. They were playing Carolina and had a 4-2 lead with about two minutes left in the game when Jason Arnott, the team captain was coming off the ice and went straight to the dressing room. He wasn’t injured, sore or sick, he just didn’t feel like waiting the rest of the game out. Now, it might not mean anything at all and even if the Preds lose here we’ll never know if that had an impact but it was odd for sure and even the commentators could not understand it. Anyway, what we have here is perhaps this season’s biggest underachiever, the Ducks, playing a very important game after two consecutive wins. Anaheim is purely and simply so much better than its record suggests and if they have any hope of getting to the dance they absolutely have to start winning games on the road and with some momentum on its side it has to begin here. Play: Anaheim +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
We cannot see Dallas losing another playoff game, at home no less. The idea that the Cowboys are not a clutch football team went out the window with a win on the road vs. New Orleans, then back to back shutouts of Washington and Philadelphia. Contrary to popular belief, it is not difficult to beat a team three times in one season as it's been accomplished 12 of 19 times.
Play on: Dallas
LARRY NESS
Florida @ Vanderbilt
PICK: Vanderbilt -5.5
The Gators saw a 10-year streak of NCAA appearances end two seasons ago and considering the 2006 and 2007 teams won national championships, NIT appearances the last two years is hardly acceptable in Gainesville. However, Gator fans may be looking at a third straight NIT this postseason, if recent losses to Richmond and South Alabama are any indication. Nick Calathes (17.2-5.3-6.4) is gone but the Gators do have five double digit scorers this season. There is 5-8 sparkplug Walker (10.7) and freshman Boynton (13.6) in the backcourt plus the team's frontcourt trio of the 6-8 Tyus (11.7-6.7), the 6-9 Parsons (11.4-6.2) and 6-10 Georgetown transfer Macklin (10.6-5.6). Vandy can't match Florida's size but coach Kevin Stallings has settled upon a solid eight-man rotation. The 6-11 Ogilvy's (12.5-5.5) numbers are down from the last two years (16.3-6.9) but that's not a concern. Depth is solid in the frontcourt with the 6-7 Walker (6.5-4.8), the 6-11 Ezeli (5.1-3.5), Tchiengang and Goulbourne. The perimeter is 'loaded' with 6-7 sophomore swingman Taylor (14.1-5.8) plus thre guards, returning players Beal (12.7) and Tinsley (6.7) plus freshman Jenkins (10.9). Vandy lost both meetings to the Gators last year but the 'Dores enter this game 8-0 at home and are shooting 49.1 percent as a team, making them one of the nation's top-25 teams. Memorial Gym is no easy place for a visiting team to win and I don't believe this year's Gators team is up to the challenge. Take Vandy.
Tony Weston
Solid call with Butler last night as the Bulldogs take care of business and get over on Wright State.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner as I’m taking the Over in the Eagles-Cowboys playoff matchup in Texas.
Coming into this game the Total is hovering around 45 points, depending on where you’re playing it.
But consider that the Over has come in 20 of the Eagles’ last 26 games when installed as an underdog and is 11-5 the team’s last 16 games with the team installed as a road underdog.
The Over is also 29-14-1 the team’s last 44 games against teams with a winning record and it is 6-1 the team’s last 7 games coming off a SU victory.
Keep in mind, also, the Cowboys have seen the Over come in 9 of their last 12 games when installed as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points and they’ve seen it go 5-2 their last 7 games when installed as a home favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
These two will score in bunches and go well Over the Total tonight.
3♦ EAGLES-COWBOYS OVER
JeffAlexander
1 Unit on Grizzlies/Bobcats UNDER 201.5
Bottom Line: I feel pretty good about the Under here as Charlotte is even 10-1 Under versus terrible defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 48% or worse over the last 2 seasons. We are seeing only 183.1 combined points in these games. We'll take the Under for 1 Unit.
JIM FEIST
DENVER NUGGETS / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE: SACRAMENTO KINGS
First place Denver has been a money-burner the last month....and there's a reason or it: they are hurting. Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony (right knee bruise) has not been playing, saying yesterday at Denver's shootaround: "I've got be smart. I want to play this game more than anybody, but unfortunately I might not." Anthony is shooting to play Monday against Minnesota. Nuggets coach George Karl said that point guard Ty Lawson (ankle) is doubtful, starting point Chauncey Billups (groin) is back but not 100%, while starting center Nene (ankle) is hurting and is a game-time decision. This is the second of a back to back spot for the Nuggets after a marquee game last night with LeBron James and the Cavaliers on national TV at home. Sacramento is playing its 7th home game over th last 9 games and they just beat Denver here as a dog 10 days ago. Play the Kings.
Great Lakes Sports
USC at California
Pick: USC
The USC Trojans are a very solid 7-1 ATS vs the Pac 10 their last eight games, and the USC Trojans are a very respectable 6-2 ATS when playing in their last eight road games. The California Golden Bears are a terrible 2-6 ATS when playing in their last eight games vs the Pac 10, and the Golden Bears are a horrible 2-6 ATS when playing in their last eight games vs a team with a winning percentage greater than .600. We look for the USC Trojans to pull off the upset and grab the Road ATS Win & Cover tonight.