Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Chicago at Minnesota
The Bulls head to Minnesota following last night's 114-108 loss to Cleveland in overtime and come into tonight's contest with a 14-2 ATS record in their last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2).

Game 501-502: Memphis at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 117.481; Charlotte 122.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 5; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 2 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-2 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Dallas at New Orleans (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 115.045; New Orleans 120.193
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 5; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2); Over

Game 505-506: Toronto at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 121.517; Orlando 113.136
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 8 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Miami at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.556; Philadelphia 114.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+9); Under

Game 509-510: Milwaukee at Washington (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 111.987; Washington 123.653
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 11 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 9; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-9); Under

Game 511-512: Brooklyn at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 117.566; Detroit 115.063
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+3 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Indiana at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.688; Atlanta 120.952
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+10 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Chicago at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 122.588; Minnesota 117.155
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Boston at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.810; Houston 126.802
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 13; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8); Over

Game 519-520: Denver at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.470; Oklahoma City 124.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+7 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Phoenix at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 123.862; Utah 113.228
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2); Under

Game 523-524: LA Lakers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 112.868; Golden State 127.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 14 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 16 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+16 1/2); Over

NHL

Vancouver at Edmonton
The Oilers host a Vancouver team that is 7-18 in its last 25 road games. Edmonton is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+110).

Game 1-2: Ottawa at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.554; Boston 12.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Under

Game 3-4: Chicago at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.531; Toronto 11.039
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-150); Over

Game 5-6: Washington at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.002; Tampa Bay 11.129
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over

Game 7-8: Winnipeg at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.033; NY Rangers 11.657
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-170); Under

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.911; Pittsburgh 12.784
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 3; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-400); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-400); Over

Game 11-12: Philadelphia at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.789; Florida 11.213
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Game 13-14: Columbus at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.318; New Jersey 10.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+140); Under

Game 15-16: Arizona at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 9.760; Carolina 11.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Arizona (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+100); Over

Game 17-18: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.890; Minnesota 11.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 19-20: Colorado at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.825; St. Louis 12.431
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-165); Over

Game 21-22: Vancouver at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.579; Edmonton 12.124
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+110); Over

Game 23-24: NY Islanders at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.353; San Jose 11.429
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+155); Under

Harry Bondi

FRESNO STATE (-10) over Wyoming

This is a tremendous scheduling spot for the Bulldogs. Not only are they playing on their home field where they have covered 10 of their last 16, but they also come in off a bye week and get to face a depth-shy Wyoming squad that’s playing back-to-back road games and its third game away from home in four weeks. We also like the fact that Fresno State comes in on a two-game losing streak, because we know we’ll get a fully focused and well-prepared effort. Over the last four weeks, the Wyoming defense has allowed an average of 41.5 points per game and nearly 500 yards of total offense, and we expect the Bulldogs to do the same, especially when you consider that in the last two meetings of the series Fresno State has beat the Cowboys by an average score of 45-12. Lay the points.

DAVE COKIN

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT LOUISIANA TECH
PLAY: LOUISIANA TECH -6.5

Here’s a good example of how final scores frequently don’t tell the real story, and how betters can derive value moving forward. Western Kentucky got the win and cover last Saturday as they ended up with an insane 66-51 victory over visiting Old Dominion.

The game was close than that final tally indicates, and one could easily argue that the Hilltoppers were a little fortunate to just win the game, let alone cover. One fourth quarter play really swing this free for all. The Monarchs were driving for a go ahead score when disaster struck. Juwan Gardner played the hero role for the home team when he picked off a pass and rumbled 96 yards for a TD that pretty much ended the proceedings. If Gardner doesn’t make that play, there’s a really good chance ODU gets the upset.

I make sure and keep notes on games that go like this one for a couple reasons. One is the potential of an immediate profit by garnering some value the next week. The other is for future reference. I’ll have next year’s meeting between these teams circled as a possibly strong revenge spot for Old Dominion.

As for this Saturday, I actually ended up downgrading Western Kentucky on my various power rankings off what I deemed an artificial win. The Hilltoppers have been going backwards for some time now, with their matador defense the primary culprit. There’s no question this team can put points on the scoreboard, but right now they aren’t stopping anyone.

Louisiana Tech has now won three straight, in spite of playing very lackluster first half offense the last two games, against UTSA and Southern Mississippi. But the Bulldogs are doing a solid job on defense, and if they can put forth a similar effort on Saturday, it bodes well for their chances against Western Kentucky.

I’m not real enamored with the home team’s offense. They should be running the ball better than they have recently, and that portion of their game needs to come back to life on Saturday. But that really doesn’t figure to be a problem against the shoddy Hilltoppers stop unit, which is about as bad as it gets presently.

I made this number considerably more than where it opened, and even with the spread going up some over the last couple of days, it’s still in what I would consider to be a beatable range. I expect Louisiana Tech to get home by double digits this weekend, so I’ll recommend laying the points with the Bulldogs.

EZWINNERS

Arkansas Razorbacks +10

This could be more of a challenge for the number one ranked team in the nation than most people think. Arkansas is still seeking their first SEC win under head coach Bret Bielema, but the Hogs are a dangerous team. Arkansas has a bruising running game and plays solid defense. They are also getting double digits against a team that they have had a lot of success against in the past as Arkansas has beaten Mississippi State in twelve out of the last fifteen meetings between these two teams. Let's also not forget that the Bulldogs offense has had to cover up for a defense that has allowed three opponents to gain over 500 yards of total offense. Take the points.

West Virginia Mountaineers +5.5

As expected the line on this game has steady creeped up from the opening number. That is what happens when a team wins in blowout fashion and puts up over 80 points on the scoreboard like TCU did against Texas Tech last week. The Horned Frogs are playing very well, but they have only played two road games this season a blowut win at SMU and their only loss at Baylor. West Virginia has two losses on the season but they were against Alabama and Oklahoma. West Virginia has been a solid play as a home underdog and teams that scored 80 or more points are just 6-9 straight up the following week. Take the points.

Steve Merril

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -14½

Oklahoma State is finally playing like we thought they would at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 76-19. They’ve shown nothing that indicates they can turn things around, especially against a good team like Kansas State. The Cowboys have been atrocious on the road this season. Their offense is only averaging 22.3 points per game on 4.4 yards per play while their defense is allowing 33 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

Kansas State is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (20-14) to Auburn, a game they could have easily won. Kansas State’s four home wins have come by 39, 30, 32, and 23 points. Head coach Bill Snyder has never been shy about running up the score, and he’ll do it here since Kansas State is playing with revenge from a 33-29 loss at Oklahoma State last season. The Wildcats are averaging 39 points per game at home this season, so they will score at will against a terrible Oklahoma State defense that has allowed 99 points in their three games away from home this season. These two teams are simply heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday night.

Brad Diamond

Duke vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Duke +4½

Early Saturday afternoon hot Duke (6-1) visits the Pitt Panthers (4-4) who last week were thrashed at home by Georgia Tech 56-28. Tech led 28-0 in the “first quarter” and glided the rest of the way for the blowout. Interesting the Panthers put 526 yards on the board offensively, and still loss. The Blue Devils show in a more positive state of mind after a bye and back-to-back conference wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia. One of the overlooked strengths for Duke this season has been their -5 TOs versus +13 in the takeaway category. Add that to an improved defense (15.1) and an overall balanced offense it’s easy to see they have a legit shot at returning to the ACC Championship game.

Techs have the Blue Devils covering 4 straight in the month of November, while on a very high note 10-2-1 ATS record on grass surfaces. Pitt, on the other hand, has been tardy at home vs. the Vegas Brain Trust at 2-5 ATS of late, and 1-4-1 ATS L6 overall. Sunday night openers had Duke -1, and if you have been focusing too much on the World Series the Panthers went to -4 on Monday, -3 ½ as we write. No doubt we still like the Blue Devils plus the points, but you might check out the money line on game day for a possible value entry.

Bryan Leonard

Air Force vs. Army
Play:Air Force -2½

A win here by the Falcons and they clinch the Commander In Chief Trophy. So obviously this is a key game for both squads. Air Force is coming in off an uncharacteristic season a year ago and have righted the ship and likely saving the coaches job. Army has a new coach and hasn't made up any ground thus far, remaining the third best military football program. A loss at lowly Kent State two weeks ago solidified that thinking. While the Black Knights are coming in off a bye we can't trust this team to win this game outright. Air Force smells the CIC Trophy and wins it with a touchdown victory.

Indian Cowboy

UCLA (-6) over Arizona

We like UCLA here for multiple reasons, the least of which is the fact this team finally is back in the top 25 after having a poor set of games and now is back in the national picture somewhat. UCLA has done well against Arizona the last two years, winning by scores of 31-26 and 66-10 overall winning as both -2.5 chalk and +1.5 underdog. What's interesting is after destroying Arizona two years ago and being an underdog last year to an Arizona team that had massive revenge, this team still found it within them to win that contest, which says a lot about the character of the UCLA coaching staff to have their players ready for that trap game. UCLA rolls into this game not having played well against Colorado, barely winning in extra time by a field goal as they were possibly looking ahead to this game. They have lost 4 straight covers, but that changes here as they match up very well against Arizona and they are very familiar with the system that Arizona runs. Note, UCLA is not that much different in makeup to USC, and with the Trojans beating this team earlier this year 28-26, look for UCLA to do a step better here as if Arizona had their troubles against Cal and Nevada, they are going to have their hands full against UCLA. Per our models, we see the Bruins likely winning this contest by about 10 points this evening, and it’s a decent public fade as well to boot which we enjoy, and take an opportunity to fade the public every chance we get.

Raphael Esparza

UNLV (Pk) over New Mexico

Last time UNLV played at home they upset Fresno St (of course, I had the Bulldogs) and the last time the Rebels played New Mexico UNLV won 56-42. If UNLV can stop the run and not make the stupid turnovers they should be able to score on the Lobos defense. I would also jump on this game now because it wouldn't shock to see this number move on Friday night or early Saturday morning. UNLV is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games, and the home team in this series is also 5-2 ATS.

Tony Karpinski

TCU vs. West Virginia
Play: TCU -3½

TCU is a very tough team no doubt and have proved that all year long. Led by big time JR QB Trevone Boykin and his dangerous deep ball. I am imagining they put Chris Hackett on Kevin White from WVU, which should be a great matchup. I am looking forward to this game between the BIG 12 newbies. West Virginia comes in playing very well, winners of 4 straight by an average margin of 15. They as well have an explosive offense. They have already improved greatly from 2013, and won more games than they did last year, and likely will be heading to a Bowl game in 2014. In the end, TCU and their scoring punch will be too much to handle as WVirgina has beaten some tough teams lately and several players are playing hurt and it will take its toll against this physical TCU team. TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games and I like them in this spot to win by 10 or more.

Tony George

Duke vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Duke +3½

The Line is dropping as sharp money is coming in on Duke. One thing that is crucial in your handicapping is turnover ratio, especially as the season rolls along. Duke is #1 in the ACC in turnover ratio (for the good) and Pitt is dead last. Anyone see the Pitt game last week against Georgia Tech? They had 6 total turnovers and 5 in the first 5 possessions in a blowout loss.

Duke is very well coached by Cutcliffe and have a solid offense capable of putting up points here and Pitt has QB issues and may use 2 QBs in this one. While Pitt can run the ball and Duke is suspect to give up some run yards, it is Duke that has the big play capability and they will find a way to shut down Pitt’s QBs from running with the ball. Duke is a 6-1 football team who beat Georgia Tech on the road as a 3 point pup 2 weeks ago, the same team who destroyed Pitt last week by taking advantage of miscues, and Pitts defense gave up over 400 yards rushing against them.

Wunderdog

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Boston College +4

Boston College has sure found the solution to their road woes that have plagued them over the last five years. They came into the season at 9-22. This year they have used a solid defense and a strong running game to come away with three wins in three tries on the road. Once again they will be in a favorable matchup as they grind out games, and Virginia Tech has not shown the ability to shutdown opponents' ground attacks. Virginia Tech, long known for being superb defensively, has certainly not done so this season as six different running backs have topped the 100-yard mark on them this season, and with the Eagles churning out close to 300 yards per game, they will have problems in this one. If that were not bad enough, last week the Hokies offense scored just 6 points. That is just the third time in the last decade that has happened. The Hokies are struggling on both sides of the ball while BC continues to build a strong resume for a good Bowl opportunity. Play on Boston College.

Freddy Wills

Stanford vs. Oregon
Play: Stanford +8.5

I have not been a fan of this Stanford team.. They lack play makers and they lost a ton of talent on defense from last year, but the defense is still playing as the best defense in the nation. Oregon is over rated and the only reason this is not a higher rated play is their offensive line is starting to get healthy, but they will play the best defense they have had to face all year. Stanford just has their number they know how to play Oregon and I just don’t think Oregon is ready to blow this team out. The spread is blown up a bit because after Oregon’s loss to Arizona they have gone back to being Oregon, but their offensive line got lucky getting to face the 116th and 126th ranked sack % defenses in 2 of their last 3 games. Stanford is ranked 13th, and 2nd in yards/attempts, and they are also ranked 5th vs. the run and have played several quality opponents on their schedule. There is still a lot for Stanford to achieve this year and I think it starts with their perennial win over Oregon.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

Stephen Nover

Florida +11

First note this game is being played in Jacksonville, a somewhat neutral site.

Next note that Georgia has beaten only one SEC team, Missouri, that has an above .500 record in the SEC. The Bulldogs other four league games have been against South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Those teams are a combined 2-17 in the SEC. One of those wins was South Carolina's victory against Georgia.

Next note that Georgia still will be without suspended star running back Todd Gurley. He won't be eligible to return until Nov. 15.

Florida was idle last week after losing in embarrassing fashion to Missouri at home, 42-13. That score is highly misleading, though. Missouri scored a combined four touchdowns on interception touchdown returns and special teams touchdowns.

There is nothing wrong with Florida's defense. It's good. The Gators hold foes under 26 points a game and to fewer than 318 yards per game. They've forced 16 turnovers in six games.

The key here is Florida finally has had enough of Jeff Driskel, who has been dreadful. The Trevon Harris era is now upon us and it should give the Gators a spark because the freshman is a big-time athlete, who can throw and run.

This is a monster rivalry game and Florida coach Will Muschamp is coaching for his job. The Gators certainly won't lack motivation and with a tough defense and the right quarterback they will make this game very interesting.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package