Ssleepyj
Iowa St. +16.5
This has gone up a bit, but i fully expect it to crash on game day..Jump on this number or even +17 if you can find it. This is a tough spot for the Sooners..They have Baylor on deck and that will be a monster game..Can they beat this Iowa St team?..Sure they can and they most likely will....This is a big look ahead in a dangerous place to play..Laying DD in Ames Iowa is not a good thing..Iowa St keeps this one close..Play Iowa St.
Ray Monohan
TCU vs. West Virginia
Play: TCU -3½
This is going to be a huge game in Morgantown this weekend with more B12 implications than we could have ever imagined at the start of the season. Both of these teams have just one conference loss with the winner being in great shape moving forward. The line on this one opened at TCU -6 and now has been shaved down to -3.5. TCU has been explosive on offense and can still play some D too so that number is more than reasonable. WVU already got their upset. I don’t see another.
Kyle Hunter
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -11
After a nice showing against Florida State in the season opener, it looked like the Oklahoma State Cowboys might have a nice season. An injury to starting quarterback JW Walsh didn't help at all, but time has shown this Oklahoma State team just isn't very good. Oklahoma State returned only 4 starters on offense and 4 starters on defense this year. Mike Gundy's team has struggled against quality opponents with Daax Garman at quarterback. Garman makes far too many bad decisions and can really hurt his team. Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12. Bill Snyder is an absolute genious, and his team is going to be ready to play every single week. The Wildcats defense has really surprised me this year, and they are the main reason this team is so good. Kansas State takes care of business on their home field here.
Dave Essler
Tennessee / South Carolina Under 56.5
I am tempted to play every single under in the Southeast on Saturday, especially the earlier games. It is simply going to be cold and probably very windy, although at night the wind should die down SOME. Either way, Tennessee has a reasonable defense and little offense, and South Carolina simply isn't going to light up the scoreboard. They're too prone to turnovers, and forget about the kicking game here. Both teams should grind this out on the ground, except when they're going with the wind. However, both QB's more or less suck, so I don't see the big plays here at all. The line coming down so much in favor of the Vols tells me that it should be lower scoring. Tennessee is not going to win any shootouts, with or without Butch Jones' offense. They just don't have the weapons or the depth.
Marco D'Angelo
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Play: Arkansas 10.5
The College Football Playoff committee agreed to put Mississippi State at the top of the BCS playoff ratings on Tuesday and while that means allot, especially for a school that doesn't have the history to hold the spot solely on reputation, it doesn't mean a thing to head coach Dan Mullen.
Mullen knows the trap his kids are set up for and he told the media as much this week.
“Our focus is on beating Arkansas,'' Mullen told the media. Mullen and his troupe are preparing for a Saturday home game against the Razorbacks. "As soon as you start thinking too far ahead and not on beating the next opponent, you are not going to be very successful."
The No. 1 Bulldogs — one of three undefeated teams in the nation — squares off against a Razorbacks team that is 0-4 in SEC play and after this week's home tilt they face a non-conference contest against UT Martin. Most believe the Bulldogs will enter their November 15th date with No 3 ranked Alabama. However, Arkansas and head coach Brett Bielema would like to play the spoiler this weekend.
Arkansas took Mississippi State to overtime last year and looking at the MSU defensive peripherals, the fact that they have allowed three opponents to gain 500-plus yards this season isn't something to rest their No 1 laurels on.
The Razorbacks can run the football and rank 15th in the nation with 258.9 yards per game and the Arkansas defense gets a boost with the return of middle linebacker Brooks Ellis, who started the first six games before missing the last two with a knee injury.
Arkansas is riding a 6-1 against the spread run this year. 6-1 last 7 vs. line TY Tech edge-MSU,
Arkansas has won 12 of the last 15 meetings between these two SEC schools straight up.
Arkansas is 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 November games
Arkansas, which has lost exclusively to top-10 teams, plays its FBS-record fifth straight conference foe ranked in the top 10 and they are primed to upset the Bulldogs.
Chase Diamond
Arkansas vs. Mississippi St
Play: Arkansas +10.5
This game features the 4-4 Arkansas at the 7-0 Miss State. Mississippi escaped a hard fought game with Kentucky last week and showed some weaknesses on Defense I expect Arkansas to keep this one tight as they have played good football of late. Losing close games to Alabama and Georgia and Texas a&m. With a virtual bye week next week versus Tenn Martin and Alabama on deck after that focus might be a little off Saturday. 67% of the public are backing the home team here with little line movement we are seeing a strong sharp position on the Razorbacks. I expect the Arkansas huge O-line to be able to control the clock in this one and keep it close.
Soccer Authority
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburg are struggling for any solid form in the league this season, after 9 games they lie in 16th place with only 6 points gained.
A 3-0 loss last time out will have really knocked their confidence.
They have yet to win a home game this season, losing 2 and drawing 2.
They have also only managed to score 3 goals in 9 games in the league, this is a horrible stat for any team.
This weekend I expect their pain to continue as they face an in form Leverkusen side.
Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga matches, having beaten Schalke 1-0 on their latest outing.
Leverkusen will know a win here will send them up towards the top of the table. I expect them to throw everything at this fixture and against a weak Hamburg side, they should pick up all 3 points.
Pick - Bayer Leverkusen to win.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion – MISSISSIPPI STATE (-10 ½) 36 Arkansas 20
Mississippi State survived a really negative situation last week and managed to beat Kentucky 45-31. This week the situation is strongly in favor of the Bulldogs to bounce-back with a strong performance against a good Arkansas team. The Razorbacks are certainly better than their 4-4 record indicates, as all 4 of their wins have been by 21 points or more while their 4 losses were inflicted by good teams (Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgia), with two of those losses being very close (7 points against A&M and just 1 point against Bama). Arkansas is a balanced team that is 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively after taking into account how good their opponents have been (the 7 FBS teams they’ve faced would out gain an average team 6.5 yppl to 5.5 yppl). Mississippi State, however, rates at 1.8 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Dak Prescott in the game (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while rating at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. Arkansas makes up for some of the difference in yards per play differential by dominating the ball, as the Hogs are projected to run 11 more plays from scrimmage than Mississippi State is, and the line on this game is reasonable based on projected yardage stats. However, Mississippi State has outstanding special teams while Arkansas is below average in that department, and the field position advantage will certainly help the Bulldogs in this game. Overall my math favors Mississippi State by 13 ½ points in this game and the Bulldogs apply to a very good 140-52-2 ATS home momentum situation and a 62-28-4 ATS situation that plays on unbeaten teams this late in the season. I’ll consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less.
Strong Opinion – KANSAS STATE (-11 ½) 35 Oklahoma State 18
Kansas State’s only loss was by just 6 points to Auburn in a game they should have won and the Wildcats have covered the spread in 5 consecutive games. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is riding a 3 games spread losing streak but the recent spread results don’t seem to affected the price of playing on the Wildcats and against the Cowboys. I went against Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet last week and they continue to be viewed as a pretty good team when that is simply not the case. The Cowboys are an average team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, rating as average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and barely better than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). Oklahoma State does have very good special teams, which makes them a better than average team overall, but Kansas State’s special teams are also very good and the Wildcats have significant advantages from the line of scrimmage.
Kansas State has a very efficient attack that has averaged 6.3 yards per play in 6 games against FBS foes that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and the Wildcats are even better defensively, rating at 1.0 yppl better than average on the stop side of the ball (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model projects Kansas State to have a 454 yards to 303 yards advantage in this game, which should be enough to win by two touchdowns or more. This game is a borderline Best Bet and I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and I’d take the Wildcats in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion - OVER (48) - PITTSBURGH (-3) 30 Duke 27
The fact that Duke is ranked is all the evidence you need that the polls are useless in giving you information about how good teams are. Duke is a mediocre team that is 6-1 because they’ve faced a very easy schedule and managed to win a couple of close games along the way. The Blue Devils are actually a bit below average offensively, as their 5.7 yards per play have come against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average opponent, and they’re average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Pitt is mediocre too and my ratings favor the Panthers by 4 ½ points in this game. Pitt does apply to a negative 47-79-3 ATS situation that will have me recommending a pass on the side in this game. I do, however, like the Over. Rain is expected in the morning but I expect the offense to come from the ground attack and I don't think the rain will hinder the running too much - although it may slow the tempo of the game. Still, there is enough value to consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 50 points or less.
Joe Gavazzi
Notre Dame -15
With Notre Dame 5-2 ATS +26 AFP and Navy -5 ATS -36 AFP, we will confidently lineup with an extra TD of value in this annual mid-season classic. Must note that the Irish had their 6-0 SU bubble burst in the 31-27 should-have-been upset of No. 1 Florida St. A closer look at the stats, show the Irish with a 470-323 edge in that game. That letdown is aided by team personality profiles that showed Dame to be just 3-9 ATS as double digit favorite, while the Middies enter at 14-5 ATS as regular season underdog. Though not in love with this year’s edition of the 28/411 Navy defense, must note that in last year’s 38-34 Notre Dame series victory, Navy rambled for their usual 70/329 overland. Last week, QB Reynolds returned to lead a Navy ground game that outrushed San Jose 423-100 with Reynolds accounting for 251 of those overland yards. The value, the situation, the stats, and the technicals all point to Navy coming inside this impost.
Nelly
Arkansas + over Mississippi State
The Bulldogs might think they will be on cruise control until heading to Tuscaloosa in two weeks but this could be a dangerous game. The Bulldogs passed big home tests with Texas A&M and Auburn but Arkansas is a hungry underdog still seeking the first SEC win of the Bret Bielema era. Last season Arkansas lost depressingly in overtime in this matchup and the Razorbacks have played commendably in several games this season including taking Alabama down to the wire. Arkansas can run the ball and play solid defense making for an attractive double-digit underdog and the Hogs have won S/U in 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series. Mississippi State has marginal defensive numbers and the Bulldogs have out-gained the last three foes by minimal margins. The wins over LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn have diminished in value since they happened and Arkansas has been allowing nearly 90 fewer yards per game this season. Both offenses have been highly productive with very similar numbers with Arkansas playing by far the tougher rated schedule. This is a season-making opportunity for Ark
Michael Alexander
Middle Tenn St +3.5
The Cougars of BYU had climbed to the Number 18 spot even with a 4-4 start as QB Hill was being touted as a legitimate Heisman candidate. But unfortunately he got hurt and is out for the year, in loss to Utah State. BYU has dropped 4 straight, while failing to cover since its upset of Texas in week 2. They have also given up an average of 39.2 points per game in their last 5 games and have committed 11 turn overs in their last 4 games. Middle Tennessee State comes int this one with 11 takeaways in their last 4 games. Middle Tennessee State has seven straight wins at home and they will be looking for revenge.
Jeff Clement
Utah State vs. Hawaii
Play: Utah State -3
The Aggies have the 34th ranked defense only allowing 21.9 points per game and QB Darrell Garretson has passed for 1,140 yards with 8 TD's. Hunter Sharp has been the big playmaker at receiver for Utah State with 714 yards with 5 TD's. Hawaii has lost 2 in a row and have only scored over 20 points 3 times in 8 games and are ranked 111th in the nation in scoring offense. Utah State is 12-5-1 ATS last 18 road games and Hawaii is 0-5 ATS last 5 games against teams with winning road records. Prediction: UST 29 HAW 20.
AC Dinero
Auburn vs. Mississippi
Play: Auburn +2.5
Basically a playoff game here for these two with the loser likely out of the playoof hunt. Ole Miss played well enough to win defensively last week, but you don't win many games scoring 7 points. The main problem is the inconsistency at QB for the Rebels. Where Ole Miss is a good 3rd down team, Auburn is a great one, converting 56% on offense and only giving up 34% on defense. The Tigers have the more explosive offense, by far, and are the better team in the red zone and kicking game. There is more than enough experience on this team to win a big game on the road. Look for the Auburn spread/tempo offense to the a good Ole Miss defense fits and pull this one out.
Red Dog Sports
TCU vs. West Virginia
Play: Over 70
Both teams can put up points. The game is set for Morgantown, WV and even if the November weather is cooler I still think we see plenty of points. Both teams are in the top 10 in passing efficiency and Baylor scored over 80 points last week.
John Ryan
Duke vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -3
The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points over the 24th ranked Duke. Pitt knows that if they win this game they have a great shot at running the table and finishing the season at 8-4 and entertain some much bigger bowl games than their current 4-4 record would reflect now. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (PITTSBURGH) that is an excellent rushing team averaging >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Further, 38% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. This marks the first time since the mid-19050's that a Duke football team has been ranked in consecutive seasons. This team does have experience in numbers from last year's first appearance in the top-25 since the 1994 season. Over my 23 seasons of handicapping games, I have seen unranked teams FAVORED at home over a ranked team and there is a reason for this whether hidden or fully apparent. Check it out the remainder of the season and see how the results reflect this simple observation. The biggest reason I see Pitt winning this game easily is their very strong ground attack that ranks 34th in the nation averaging 209 yards-per-game. Duke has not be able to stop the run consistently this season ranking a miserable 98th in the nation allowing 203 yards-per-game. Duke has it's own very strong ground attack, but the Pitt defensive front is much more talented and will be able to contain them forcing them into numerous third-and-long situations. Don't be misled by Duke's 4th best ranking in scoring defense at 15.5 PPG as they also rank 105th in red zone scoring defense allowing 90% of opponent possessions to put numbers up on the scoreboard. The reason most evident is the that DUke has had a significantly weak SOS and now they face a stiff competitor that can win both sides of the LOS.