Jimmy Boyd
Notre Dame -14.5
The fact that Navy was able to play Notre Dame close last year might have some looking to take the two touchdowns and the hook, but I believe there?s a big difference between the Fighting Irish team that took the field last season and the one that has started out 2014 6-1. The biggest difference being Everett Golson. Keep in mind that in 2012, when Notre Dame went 12-0, they absolutely dominated the Midshipmen in a 50-10 win. I don?t know that it will be quite that big of a blowout this time around, but I like Notre Dames chances of winning here by more than two touchdowns.
Navy just hasn't been all that impressive in my eyes. I really thought the Midshipmen had a chance at a double-digit win season with 15 starters coming back, including star quarterback Keenan Reynolds, but they haven't been able to put it together. Back-to-back wins over the likes of VMI and San Jose State aren't going to change my opinion on this team being able to compete with a far superior opponent. We have already seen Navy lose to the likes of Rutgers, Western Kentucky and Air Force.
Prior to their brutal 3-game stretch that had them go up against Stanford, North Carolina and Florida State, each of Notre Dame?s first 4 wins came by at least 16-points. I know they had a close call against the Tar Heels, who haven?t been all that impressive, but that was a huge trap game.
One of things that I really like about the Fighting Irish in this matchup is they come in off that heartbreaking loss to Florida State, which they feel they should have won. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated to put that loss behind them and I dont see them overlooking Navy after last years close call. Another big advantage for Notre Dame is that they come in off a bye, which has allowed them two full weeks to prepare for Navy s option based offense.
The Midshipmen?s run-oriented offense plays right into the strength of the Notre Dame defense, which enters ranked 12th in the country against the run, allowing just 102.7 ypg. If the Fighting Irish can keep Navy from having success on the ground, its going to make it extremely difficult for the Midshipmen to keep this close. Navy is not strong defensively and are not a team thats capable of playing from behind. The Fighting Irish should have no problem winning here by 20+ points!
Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 road games against strong rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry, while Navy is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus good offensive teams that are averaging 425 or more total yards/game.
Scott Spreitzer
Kentucky +8
The Wildcats rebounded nicely last weekend against Mississippi State and came up just a little short. QB Patrick Towles had a big game and the 'Cats out-schemed the Bulldog secondary. Yes, eventually, the defense has to get better against the run for marked and lasting improvement within the SEC, but I don't believe Mizzou is going to give them a ton of trouble. With the way Maty Mauk has been slumping, we suspect Kentucky will be able to "help out" against the run and force Mauk to beat them with his arm. Mauk will hang some passes and that's not wise against a Kentucky defense that's one of the best in the nation at intercepting opponent's passes. Last weekend, the Tigers actually ran the ball pretty well, but Mauk still completed just 11-of-23 passes. Offensively, Kentucky averages over 426 yards per game, while scoring over 31 ppg. They'll bring confidence to the gridiron after giving top-ranked Mississippi State a run for their money one week ago. We're 2-0 ATS in games involving Mizzou this season, including a winner with Georgia in a 34-0 blowout victory over the Tigers on this field. We'll go against Mizzou again. I'm recommending a play on Kentucky plus the points.
Jack Jones
Baylor -35
The Baylor Bears have been steaming over their bye week the last two weeks from their road loss to West Virginia that really put a damper on their playoff hopes. I look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly Kansas Jayhawks this week and to win this game by more than five touchdowns to cover the spread. The Jayhawks stand little chance of keeping this game competitive at all.
Baylor is putting up 49.0 points per game this season while ranking 1st in the country in total offense at 579.0 yards per game. After their worst offensive output of the season against West Virginia, you can bet Art Briles will make sure this offense kicks it into high-gear this week. They are 3-0 at home where they are scoring 58.7 points and averaging 692.0 yards per game this year.
Kansas may be lucky to score in this game. It is only putting up 16.6 points and 336.3 yards per game on the season. It will have a hard time moving the football against a Baylor defense that is only allowing 23.0 points and 325.3 yards per game. So, not only do the Bears have the best offense in the country, they also have an underrated defense.
Baylor is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Kansas. Last year, the Bears beat the Jayhawks by 45 points (59-14) on the road while racking up 743 total yards in the process. They held the Jayhawks to just 308 yards, outgaining them by 435 yards for the game. Bryce Petty threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns before being removed from the game. This was a 45-0 game before the Jayhawks finally put together two touchdown drives in garbage time in the second half.
I like the mindset of this Baylor team coming off its bye week. “A lot of times you can float along and think everything is OK when maybe it’s not and we were living proof that it’s not, so we are certainly going to be a determined team here from this day forward without question,” Briles said.
The Bears are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games. Kansas is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a bye week. Plays on home favorites of 21.5 or more points (BAYLOR) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 56-20 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Steve Janus
Utah Utes +6.5
The Utes continue to be extremely undervalued by the books. Utah has the exact same 6-1 SU record as Arizona State, yet are getting 6.5-points. Not a huge surprise considering the Sun Devils have been overrated all season. Utah went on the road and beat UCLA 30-28, while Arizona State lost at home to the Bruins 27-62 in primetime on Thursday night. Utah's ability to stop the run and get after the quarterback is going to make it extremely hard on the Arizona State offense to come anywhere close to their offensive averages, while the Utes shoudn't have any problem moving the ball against a bad Sun Devils defense. Don't be fooled by the 10-points that Arizona State has allowed in their last two games against two bad offensive teams in Stanford and Washington.
System 1 - Home favorites in conference games between two mistake free teams that are averaging 1.25 or less turnovers/game are 39-84 (32%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
System 2 - Road teams who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games with a winning record on the season are 131-76 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Heath Mac
Utah vs. Arizona State
Play: Utah +6½
Utah continue to be underrated by the Books and have been a covering machine this season (6-1 ATS). UTAH is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. UTAH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Play Against - Home favorites (ARIZONA ST) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams.
Marc Lawrence
East Carolina vs. Temple
Play: Temple +7½
Edges - Owls: 8-1 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points with head coach Matt Rhule; and 6-2 ATS as a conference home dog. Pirates: 4-13 ATS away off a SU win under head coach Ruffin McNeill, including 1-10 ATS in conference games. With ECU riding a 3-game losing spread streak, while also having surrendered season-high yards in two it last three contests, don’t be surprised by an upset here with this made to order home dog. We recommend a 1-unit play on Temple.
Bill Biles
Nebraska -23.5
Nebraska has the chance to score over 50 points in this one, and I think they will. Purdue's defense still lacks the play makers to slow Ameer Abdullah in this one. Kenny Bell will also have a big game.
Doug Upstone
Utah vs. Arizona State
Play:Arizona State -6½
Here is a easy to understand free play. Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Utah off two straight wins against conference rivals, against opponent off a double digit road win. Here we are looking at home team like Arizona State getting a lot of resolve off their impressive away victory and that carries over into the next game. In the last 10 years, teams like Utah are 9-41 ATS.
Jim Feist
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans
Pick: Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs were one of the best road covering teams in the NBA last season, posting a remarkable 66% mark ATS away from home. They already are 1-0 away this year, covering at San Antonio in their opening game of the season. This year's edition of the Mavs is even better, loaded with veterans and a deep bench including the addition of Tyson Chandler, Jameer Nelson and Chandler Parsons to complement Dirk Nowtizki. The Pelicans will have to improve this year if they hope to make the playoffs in the tough West conference. The Suns missed the playoffs last year, despite winning 48 games. New Orleans is led by their best player and one of the best in the league in Anthony Davis. But the Pelicans need to give him help and improve on one of the worst defenses in the league last year. Need little more than a Dallas straight up win to get the cover here. Mavs just too talented for Davis to take on alone. Lay the points with one of the best road teams in the NBA.
Matt Fargo
Utah vs. Arizona State
Pick: Arizona State
The winner of this game will take a big step in taking charge in the Pac 12 South while the loser is likely out of the running. I like the home squad in this one as Arizona St. is riding a three-game winning streak while sitting at 6-1 overall, the lone loss coming at home against UCLA by 35 points despite outgaining the Bruins by 46 yards. Turnovers and special teams were the difference there which has since been cleaned up. On the other side, Utah is also riding a three-game winning streak but it has been quite different than that of the Sind Devils. The Utes won two of those games by two and three points while the other needed overtime to become victorious. The one consistent factor for Utah in those games is the fact that it was outgained in each of those and going back, it has been outgained in five straight games. That is not a good streak to have and the Sun Devils have the ability on both sides of the ball to take advantage. Arizona St. also falls into a solid situation where we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight conference wins going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 41-9 ATS (82 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while going 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg.
Las Vegas Sports Services
Texas at Texas Tech
Play Texas Tech
Rival Texas is in town as a favorite, but this is a bad Texas offense and the Longhorns are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They are off a close win over a bad Iowa State team. texas Tech has a dynamite passing attack and the Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Mr. Vegas
Indiana at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta
The Hawks would like nothing better than to beat the Pacers here, considering they lost to Indiana in seven games in the playoffs last year. Yes, Atlanta made the playoffs with a losing record, but the east is a weak conference. The Hawks should be better too with the return of Al Horford. With Horford last year they had a winning record, without him a losing record. Meanwhile, the Pacers won't be as good this year with the loss of Paul George and Lance Stephenson. To further complicate the issue, the Pacers are likely also going to be without forward David West (ankle). Hawks at home here will show no mercy to the hurting Pacers. Take the Hawks in what should be a blowout win.
River City Sharps
Auburn +2
Both of these teams are in the inaugural top 4 for the College Football playoffs, one of them won't be there long. The Rebels are off a tough loss at LSU while Auburn won a shootout against South Carolina. In this game we see Auburn trying to Establish the run, as they are ranked 10th in the nation in that category. Ole Miss allowed a season high 264 yards on the ground last week at LSU. We expect a heavy dose of Cameron Artis-Payne and Nick Marshall mixing in some run and pass. He has been pretty good doing both this year, 7 TD rushing and 11 passing. The Rebels sport the #1 rated scoring defense in the NCAA. It should be a good battle as Auburn boasts the 15th best scoring offense. Interestingly enough, the Rebels are still the nation's only team yet to give up more than 20 points, while the Tigers are one of four teams to score at least 20 in every game since 2013. The difference for us here is at the QB position. Bo Wallace has been pretty good, but is prone to make that one mistake, like he did last week against LSU that cost them a chance for a FG and a tie. Marshall does it all for this Auburn team and we think he will be able lead the Tiger offense vs this Rebel defense.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
LOUISIANA TECH -7 over Western Kentucky: The Bulldogs are 5-3 on the year with all 5 wins coming by 7 points or more and they have gone 4-0 in Conference USA this year so far and have outscored their opponents by 23 ppg in conference play. Western Kentucky grabbed a 66-51 win over ODU last week, but a closer look shows that that should have been a much closer game as WKU got a 96 yrd INT return for a TD with ODU going in. That's a 14 point swing. The Hilltoppers have a very good offense, but they can't stop anyone, as they have allowed 41.1 ppg and 549.9 ypg on the year, including allowing 46 ppg and 617 ypg in their last 3 games. Ouch. Defense is where the Bulldogs have a HUGE edge, allowing just 350.8 ypg and 25.9 ypg, plus they are 27th in the nation in defensive yards per play (4.9), while WKU is 124th in that department (6.8). Let's go even further. La Tech has allowed just 16 ppg in league play and have scored 38.8 ppg, while WKU has allowed 47 ppg in league play. Very hard to see WKU coming up with enough stops to keep this close. Louisiana Tech by 14 plus here.
Purdue / Nebraska Over 61: This one should be fun to watch. This Purdue offense has really come alive of late, averaging 447.3 ypg and 35.7 ppg in their last 3 games. In their last 2 games they put up 31 points on a very good Michigan state Defense and 38 points on a solid Minnesota defense, so I can see them getting at least 24 points in this one vs a Nebraska defense that allowed 24 points last week to Rutgers. The Purdue defense has been bad all year, allowing 31.3 ppg overall, 32 ppg on the road and 37 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a bad defense and will surely have their struggles in keeping down a strong Nebraska offense that has averaged 551.2 ypg and 42.8 ppg at home this year. I don't see how they are held below 42 points in this one. This game could very well put 70 points on the board.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Arizona +6.5 over UCLA: Just too many points for the Bruins to be laying in this one, especially for a team that is 1-7 ATS this year and 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs a team seeking revenge. The Bruin offense is solid and we know they can score some points, but their defense has had their struggles this year, especially vs the pass where they rank 105th in the nation. That bodes well for the Cats in this one as they bring in the 8th best passing attack in the nation. Arizona's pass defense has also struggled this year, but Hundley has been inconsistent and is still playing behind a weak OL. Both defenses are bad in this game, but I do feel that Arizona has a bit more offense than a Bruins team that needed double OT to defeat the Buffaloes last week. Last year the game was a 5 point win by the Bruins, and while I expect this one to be just as close, I also look for the outright upset by Arizona here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS GAME: College football favorites off an overtime win who allow 30 or more PPG on the season are 12-1 ATS since 1996 if they scored 36 or more points in the win and they are facing a .400 or greater opponent. (Taken From Playbook)
Auburn +2 Over MISSISSIPPI: The Ole Miss Rebels are in the Midst of a strong season, but then again so are the Auburn Tigers. This game will come down to the offenses I feel and that is where the Tigers have a huge edge. Last week the Ole Miss offense was able to muster just 7 points vs a very tough LSU defense, while the Tigers put up 41 points on LSU. Their offense is very tough to defend and they will find away to score their fair share of points vs this tough Ole Miss defense. The Auburn defense is nothing special, but they do allow just 20.5 ppg and Ole Miss still has a rather weak offense. The Rebels will have to outscore the Tigers and they just don't have enough firepower to do that with. Sealing the deal is the fact that the Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win, while the Rebels are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games in November.
BEST OF THE REST
TCU / West Virginia Under 71: This game features two high powered offenses, but i can see some defense being played here, plus there is bad weather expected for this game. TCU has been putting up video game numbers of late, but I feel that the West Virginia defense can slow them down here. After allowing 45 points to Oklahoma, West Virginia has now allowed just 21.3 ppg in their last 4 games and the defense should have the advantage here of the TCU offense, especially on a sloppy field and in high wind conditions like is expected for this game. The West Virginia offense can also score plenty and TCU has no defense right now, but the Mountaineer offense will also be handcuffed by the weather. Really had to see this one be a full shootout out.
North Carolina +14.5 over MIAMI: This is just too many points for a mediocre Miami team to be giving a North Carolina squad that can score on anyone in the country. North Carolina can’t stop many people, but I see them coming up with enough stops here to keep this one from turning into a rout. The Dog is 8-1 ATS the last 9 in the series, while Miami is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs the ACC. Miami by no more than 10 here.
Notre Dame/ Navy Over 54.5: The Midshippmen defense has been bad this year and showed it last week by allowing a below average San Jose State squad to put up 31 points on them. Now they face an Irish offense that has been the best that Kelly has had here so far, putting up 33.4 ppg. Notre Dame has allowed just 19.1 ppg, but thy have struggled on that side of the ball of late, allowing 29.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The last 3 in this series has average 67.3 ppg and I fully expect this one to be played in the 60s as well.
ASA
Auburn +2.5
Look for Ole Miss to have a problem getting back up off the deck after losing their first game of the season last Saturday @ LSU. It was a 10-7 final score however the Tigers dominated much of the game. LSU outgained Ole Miss by nearly 100 yards and outrushed the Rebs by 130 yards. Despite that, Mississippi lined up for the game tying FG late but picked up a penalty moving them out of range. They then threw a pick ending the game. Now they must bounce back against what we feel is the best (or at least 2nd best) team in the SEC. The Tigers have only been outgained once all season long and that was by just 28 yards at Mississippi State. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games. Despite losing the box score in many of their recent games, turnovers have been a huge helper for Ole Miss as they are +10 in their last 4 games alone (3-1 record). Gus Malzahn has proven he can take his team on the road and win as Auburn has won 4 of their last 5 roadies dating back to last year. That includes a win @ Kansas State this year and @ Texas A&M a year ago. Auburn was -2.5 @ Miss St a few weeks ago and they are not getting 2.5 points vs Ole Miss here. Line value and situation favors Auburn.