DAVE COKIN
TORONTO RAPTORS AT ORLANDO MAGIC
PLAY: TORONTO RAPTORS -6.5
I’ve always felt that getting to view teams early in the season is necessary if one wants to get a true feel for what they have. So even though, for my own personal tastes, I’d rather watch the NHL than the NBA, I’m trying to catch as much pro hoops as possible out of the starting gate. The early views are the key for me in sizing up tonight’s clash between Toronto and Orlando.
The Raptors went wire to wire in their opening win over Atlanta. The Hawks did make it interesting right near the finish, but this was a game Toronto pretty much controlled most of the way. Toronto is not good enough to make a serious run at the top of the Eastern Conference, but they do appear to be a pretty good basketball team that should have little difficulty making the playoffs.
As for the Orlando Magic, the only way they’ll be near the court come the post-season is if someone buys the guys on the team some primo tickets. This is one weak entry. I watched the Orlando loss at New Orleans, and if all you saw was the final score, you might not have any idea of how lopsided the game really was. Had the Pelicans made a few of their outside shots, or not managed to somehow shoot less than 50% from the foul line, this would have been a 30 point loss for Orlando.
The Magic also lost their second outing of the season as they were defeated by the Wizards. I’ll give Orlando credit for making it interesting late, as they slashed a big Washington lead to just a deuce inside the final minute before succumbing by seven.
The one most alarming weakness for the Magic is at point guard, where rookie Elfrid Payton is simply not close to being ready just yet. Payton is going to get turned over on a regular basis, and at least for the time being, it sure looks like the game is moving too fast for him. I think he’s a talented player who I really enjoyed seeing at the college level. But Payton is going to get overmatched frequently in his first trip around the league, and I think Kyle Lowry eats him up tonight.
My sense is that Orlando might be even worse than projected, and I don’t know anyone who thought very highly of this team prior to the start of the season. Toronto is the superior team, and with this being the first road game for the Raptors, I would imagine it will have their full attention. Road chalk often is a pretty good bet in the first handful of days of the season, and they’ve done well out of this year’s starting gate. My guess is that if these teams were to meet on this court a couple weeks from now, we’d probably be looking at Toronto being perhaps as high as -9. Thus, the page for this game isn’t bad at all, and I’ll recommend laying it with the Raptors.
Rob Vinciletti
South Alabama vs. UL Lafayette
Play: South Alabama +7
South Bama is one of the more under rated teams in the nation. They have a much better defense and are nearly even on offense. Today they are taking points from LA. Lafayette. Conference dogs or favorites of 6 or less off a win vs a team off a home dog win that scored 35 or more, allowed 17 or more are 10-30 ats vs a team of a win of 7 or more. They are on a 4 game win streak and should at the very least get the cover. Take South Alabama.
Andy Iskoe
Syracuse -3.5
Both teams are struggling in ACC play although Syracuse has played better of late than has NC State. Both teams have lost to Clemson, Florida State and Louisville and in those games the stats are fairly similar. NC State averaged 63 ypg more on offense while Syracuse defensive edge has been 61 ypg. Syracuse's net scoring margin is 6 points better than NC State (-16.6 ppg vs -22.6 ppg). Last season, Syracuse, in its first season in the ACC, won 24-10 at NC State as 6 point dogs. For the season State has performed better on offense, Syracuse better on defense with each team's edges nearly offsetting one another except in a couple of key areas. Syracuse has played much better rush defense and is allowing 1.3 less yards per rush than is NC State. Syracuse has also been much better at forcing takeaways. After starting the season 4-0 SU, NC State has now lost 4 straight (going 2-2 ATS) Syracuse has covered 3 straight games despite winning only at Wake Forest. Both teams are 4-4 ATS with Syracuse in better current form and a win here would leave both teams 4-5 SU overall.
Will Rogers
Arizona Coyotes vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Carolina Hurricanes +104
The Carolina Hurricanes are still looking for their first win of the season, but there is reason for optimism as they get ready to host the Coyotes Saturday. Eric Stall is back after missing the first five games due to injury. He picked up an assist in his first game back, and I expect him to make an impact on tonight's contest.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational/Motivational - With the Canes 0-6, you can bet they'll be giving 110% tonight, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the visitors. Arizona is playing it's third game of a four game road trip, and they've lost all four of their away games so far.
2. Injuries - You can't read too much into the Canes 0-6 record, as they have been without a handful of key players. They will be more competitive with the return of Eric Stall and Nathan Gerbe.
3. X-Factor - The Coyotes lost Radim Vrbata in the off-season, and he's now lighting it up for the Vancouver Canucks. Arizona has very little when it comes to talented forwards, and their leading scorer is defenseman Keith Yande.
Jesse Schule
San Diego State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada -3
Nevada is coming off consecutive wins on the road over BYU and Hawaii, and the Wofpack host West Division leaders San Diego State Saturday night. While the Aztecs have a better record in the Mountain West, it's key to look at the quality of opposition for these two teams.
Nevada at 5-3 overall, has lost to the likes of Arizona, Boise State and Colorado State. The Aztecs on the other hand have a record of 4-3 overall, losing three of four on the road, with their only win coming against a New Mexico team that sits dead least in the Mountain West. If you look at the combined record of the three teams that San Diego State has defeated in conference play, they have gone 6-17 overall.
The quarterback situation for the Aztecs is nothing short of a complete disaster, with Quinn Kahler throwing for just three TDs and seven picks on the season. Six of those seven picks have come in his three starts on the road, and he has just one TD pass in those games.
Cody Fajardo has been pretty good for the Wolfpack, and last week at Hawaii he ran for 133 yards and a pair of TDs. I think Nevada should be a much bigger favorite here, but the Aztecs past success in this series has caused some to favor the visitors. This is the worst Aztecs team we have seen in years, so I don't put much stock in their past success.
Ari Atari
Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Phoenix Suns -2
Hats of the Phoenix for getting the job done at home against the defending champs by beating the Spurs by 5 and getting a 6 point cover.
The back to back to Utah and Denver are always tougher than any other location given the altitude. The home effectiveness of the Jazz over the years despite their noticeable drop as playoff hopefuls continues to garner enough weight and attention from the linesmakers.
They only want to give the Jazz 2 points here which is practically nothing. They're saying that Phoenix may not be motivated to play this one after a big game the night before (classic letdown situation) and they're factoring in the tired legs after playing a fast paced game.
The argument is this: The Suns are a young group of runners. It's early in the season and it isn't time yet to start thinking about a lack of effort on a back to back. They've only played 2 and this is their first away game. Dragic and Bledsoe have welcomed Isaiah Thomas to their backcourt tandem of fury and it's going to hard stopping these guys from moving the ball quickly.
Utah is simply not there yet. They've got too many holes on the defensinve side of the ball giving up a combined average of 112 points in their first 2 games.
Phoenix lost 109-86 the last time they played here in late February. They took the night off and paid the price for it by narrowly missing the playoffs. Every game matters in the West. When you're handed a matchup against a weaker team like the Jazz and take them lightly, then you can pack your bags now for your early holiday on April 16.
Hey Phoenix! Do you want to make a strong playoff push this year? Then don't mess it up with games like this where you need to capitalize and stack up the win column.
Bryan Power
Auburn vs. Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi
Despite a 10-7 loss last week at LSU, Ole Miss is by no means disqualified from the playoff conversation. To the contrary, the Rebels remain in a position where if they win out, they'll be among the final four. The bounce back starts Saturday at home vs. Auburn in what amounts to a de facto elimination game. Lay the points...
Something will have to give here as Ole Miss is the only team in the country to not have allowed more than 20 points in a game this season while Auburn has scored 20+ in every game since the start of last season. In situations such as this, I tend to prefer the stronger defense. I think it's pretty shocking that the Rebels aren't even being asked to lay a field goal in this situation.
With the nation's top scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed), Ole Miss cannot be ignored. They've allowed just three touchdowns in the last three games and two of them came in garbage time vs. Texas A&M. Auburn's defense has been one of the worst in the SEC in recent weeks and we saw them struggle to move the ball against Kansas State earlier in the season. Ole Miss' ability to create turnovers (+13) has resulted in 97 additional points off them this season and that could be the difference here. The better team laying less than a field goal at home is a good value play here.
Dr Bob
Boston College (+3½) 20 VIRGINIA TECH 19
This is a good match up for the run-oriented Boston College offense, which averaged 284 yards per game on the ground and just 129 yards on pass plays per game. The Virginia Tech defense is good overall, rating at 0.7 yards per play better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average defense), but the Hokies don’t defend the run well (5.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yprp against an average team). That was certainly evident last week when Miami’s Duke Johnson ran all over them and I think that Boston College will have enough success running the ball to squeak out a win in this game. My math model takes match ups into account and favors the Eagles by 1 point.
NC State (+3½) 28 SYRACUSE 26
The Syracuse offense has stumbled since losing starting quarterback Terrel Hunt, as freshman backup A.J. Long has struggled in the passing game (4.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and isn’t the dynamic runner that Hunt was (324 yards at 6.6 yprp in 5 games). These teams stack up pretty evenly in projected total yards but NC State is less likely to turn the ball over with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett having thrown just 3 interceptions all season while the Orange freshman has thrown 4 picks in 3 games. I’ll call for the minor upset.
Wisconsin (-13½) at RUTGERS
This game really depends on if Rutgers' quarterback Gary Nova plays and I may have an update on Saturday - although Nova is listed as a game time decision. I won't have anything strong either way, as the math favors Rutgers and the situation favors Wisconsin.
PENN STATE (-3½) 23 Maryland 22
My ratings favor Penn State by 5 points but the Nittany Lions apply to a very negative 84-169-3 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s overtime loss to Ohio State. I can certainly see Penn State suffering a letdown after getting up for the Buckeyes and nearly beating them. It’s a case of thinking too much about what could have been last week rather than focusing on Maryland, a team that apply to a solid 63-28-2 ATS blowout bounce back situation that is based on their 7-52 loss at Wisconsin. I’ll lean with the Terps and hope they win the game straight up (I have Penn State under 7.5 wins for the season).
Air Force (-3) 28 ARMY 21
Teams that run the option offense usually defend it well and both teams’ poor defensive units should be average or better in this game, which would lead to a lower than expected scoring game. The games between the 3 military schools, which all 3 currently run an option offense, are 26-8-2 UNDER the total, excluding the years in which Army did not run the option. I like the Under based on that trend and I like Air Force based on a 44-8 ATS situation and line value.
Notre Dame (-14½) 35 Navy 21
My math model favors Notre Dame by 16 points but Navy has a long history of success in the underdog role, a the Midshipmen are 81-52 ATS when getting 8 points or more, including last season’s near upset of the Irish (lost 34-38 as a 16 ½ point dog).
APPALACHIAN STATE (-13) 41 Georgia State 31
My math model projects 75.3 total points in this game but there is rain and 20-plus MPH winds expected, which has driven down the total a few points. I’ll also take a few points off the total but I still expect plenty of points between two teams with capable offensive units and horrible defenses. I’ll lean with Georgia State and the Over.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Ohio State Buckeyes over the Illinois Fightin' Illini in a night home game with cold and wind and some possible rain.
These conditions favor the better running team, and there's no doubt which team that is. Ohio State has been one of the best, most consistent offenses in the country the last month+, and even though they struggled to beat the best rush defense in the Big 10 last week, better days lie ahead.
With or without Braxton Miller as the signal caller of this offense, the Buckeyes have moved in the right direction (offensively) with a healthy balance of run and pass... even with a red-shirt freshman QB. JT Barrett suffered a partially sprained MCL in last week's double OT win over Penn State, but is expected to be ready for tonight's game at home.
If last year is any indication as to how the Buckeyes will find fortune on the offensive side of the ball, then the Illini' is in for a long night. Carlos Hyde torched them for 246 yards on 24 carries and although OSU doesn't have a Hyde in the backfield this year, they should still find some success in the running game if the line gets cleaned up.
Illini did a nice job beating Minnesota last week, but it won't be nearly as easy this time around. Ohio State simply has too many weapons on both sides of the ball. I like Ohio State minus the big number as they will steamroll the Illini tonight.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Western Michigan Broncos.
After opening the year at 2-3 straight up under second year coach P.J. Fleck, the Western Michigan Broncos have dialed in their "A" game and head to Oxford riding a 3 game MAC winning streak. The Broncos have run off 7 straight covers coming into this conference clash with Miami-Ohio.
Have to lay the road wood with WMU today, as the Redhawks are just 2-7 straight up, and the points haven't really been of all that much help when getting a spot at Yager Stadium, as the Hawks are just 2-5 in the role of home underdog since last season.
The Miami defense actually held Kent State to just a field goal last weekend, but the Redhawks have allowed an average of 31 points per game, so that defensive effort against the lowly Golden Flashes can be dismissed.
The Broncos have scored at least 34 points in 5 of their 8 games this season, and I see no reason why they won't be able to extend the margin today in MAC play.
Road favorite cover for Western on Saturday.
4♦ WESTERN MICHIGAN
Brad Wilton
Early kick-off for Air Force and Army this Saturday morning, and plenty on the line for the Falcons who will be looking to reclaim the Commander in Chief Trophy with a win at West Point against the Black Knights.
Expect it to happen, as Air Force is a dominant 7-1 both straight up and against the spread their last 8 visits to Michie Stadium. It should be noted that the loss did come in 2012 when the Knights took it to them 41-21. Air Force did return the favor last season with a 42-28 romp in Colorado Springs, and the Falcons should be able to do it once again this Saturday morning.
Army is just 2-5 both straight up and against the spread, and their favored run game is not likely to disturb an Air Force squad that is allowing just 145 yards per game rushing.
This line sure doesn't seem large enough to back Army, especially with Air Force eyeing that Commander in Chief Trophy.
Take Air Force as the road favorite today.
4♦ AIR FORCE
Alex Smart
Auburn vs. Mississippi
Play: Auburn
Ole Miss had their hearts ripped out last week in their gruelng 10-7 loss to LSU . Now they face a tough Auburn side, with little pity. Im betting on Auburn making this matchup another hard hitting grinding affair, something a hungover Rebs team might find to exhausting. Auburn has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, ranking 11th nationally with 5.96 yards per attempt and will pound away on the Ole Miss defense for what Im betting will be a cover.
Nelly
Arkansas + over Mississippi State
The Bulldogs might think they will be on cruise control until heading to Tuscaloosa in two weeks but this could be a dangerous game. The Bulldogs passed big home tests with Texas A&M and Auburn but Arkansas is a hungry underdog still seeking the first SEC win of the Bret Bielema era. Last season Arkansas lost depressingly in overtime in this matchup and the Razorbacks have played commendably in several games this season including taking Alabama down to the wire. Arkansas can run the ball and play solid defense making for an attractive double-digit underdog and the Hogs have won S/U in 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series. Mississippi State has marginal defensive numbers and the Bulldogs have out-gained the last three foes by minimal margins. The wins over LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn have diminished in value since they happened and Arkansas has been allowing nearly 90 fewer yards per game this season. Both offenses have been highly productive with very similar numbers with Arkansas playing by far the tougher rated schedule. This is a season-making opportunity for Arkansas with the chance to beat the top rated team in the country and the Razorbacks have competed extremely well with a 6-2 ATS record.
Cajun Sports
Western Michigan (-6.5) over Miami-Ohio
We will lay the points with the Western Michigan Broncos on Saturday afternoon as they pay a visit to Oxford Ohio to face the hometown Miami-Ohio RedHawks. Our TPR Index average has the Broncos winning this one by double-digits. A check of our database reveals a system that tells us to Play ON CFB road favorites of -1.5 or more having amassed a combined ATS margin over their last seven games of at least fifty-seven points. This system has a record of 68-33-1 ats for 67.3 percent winners. Lay the chalk with the Broncos on Saturday
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-10.5) over UConn
Simply put, UConn is a disaster, going 1-5 this season both straight up and against the spread. The main problem for the Huskies has been an offense that is literally the worst unit in college football, according to the Harry Bondi Sports power ratings, averaging a dismal 14 points per game, having failed to score more than 21 points in a game all season long. That spells bad news as they face a Central Florida defense that has held four of its last five opponents to 14 points or less and has won five straight. Last season, the UCF offense put up 62 points against the Huskies in a blowout win and we'll call for another rout here today.