Oliver Alonso
Florida vs. Georgia
Play: Florida +11
This game is being played in Jacksonville, a somewhat neutral site.
Will Muschamp is leading the Gators but this is a great spot for them to rise against one of their fiercest rivals. Florida has won 18 of the last 24 meetings the fact that the Bulldogs are off a bye week does not help their cause as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four after rest. After last years disastrous season Florida is looking to avoid their fourth straight loss in the series.
Georgia has beaten only one SEC team, Missouri, that has an above .500 record in the SEC. The Bulldogs other four league games have been against South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Those teams are a combined 2-17 in the SEC. One of those wins was South Carolina's victory against Georgia.
Georgia still will be without suspended star running back Todd Gurley. He won't be eligible to return until Nov. 15. Florida was idle last week after losing in embarrassing fashion to Missouri at home, 42-13. That score is highly misleading, though. Missouri scored a combined four touchdowns on interception touchdown returns and special teams touchdowns.
There is nothing wrong with Florida's defense. It's good. The Gators hold foes under 26 points a game and to fewer than 318 yards per game. They've forced 16 turnovers in six games. The key here is Florida finally has had enough of Jeff Driskel, who has been dreadful. The Trevon Harris era is now upon us and it should give the Gators a spark because the freshman is a big-time athlete, who can throw and run.
This is a monster rivalry game and Florida coach Will Muschamp is coaching for his job. The Gators certainly won't lack motivation and with a tough defense and the right quarterback they will make this game very interesting.
Wunderdog
Vancouver @ Edmonton
Pick: Vancouver -124
Vancouver started last season looking like a certain playoffs team. But they went into a team slump, lost their confidence and didn't even make an appearance in the postseason. They started with a clean slate this season, and seem to have resolved the issues from last season, and are 7-3 through 10 games. Despite a four-game winning streak early in the season, Edmonton remains one of the worst teams in the NHL. I expect that to start showing itself, especially after a loss. The Canucks have handled losing teams where they own a 5-1 record in their last six against one. The Oilers have been dreadful vs. the Pacific where they own a woeful 28-80 mark in their last 108, and Vancouver has taken a win away in five of the last seven meetings. Make the play on Vancouver in this one.
Greg Smith
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Play: Arkansas
Although the Razorbacks have suffered some early losses in the season, this is team that's been flying a little under the radar this year. The stats on Arkansas aren't that bad. They're 36 overall in offense and 40th in overall defense. The Bulldogs have a lethal offense, but their defense is not all to be desired. This will be a back and forth game and with double digits on the Razorbacks side, I like the spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Purdue +23½ over NEBRASKA
The Cornhuskers are 7-1 with only loss this season occurring against #8 Michigan State by just five points. That loss actually gives the ‘Huskers more credibility than their 7 wins. Nebraska’s non-conference schedule was against nothing but marshmallows. When you schedule games against garbage you pay the price later on and Nebraska is going to pay up at some point. Under Bo Pelini the past six years, the Cornhuskers have been a fumbling machine, ranking 115th or worse in the country in five of those six years. When you are spotting lumber like this, you can’t turn it over but we’re almost assured of at least two by this bumbling squad. Against Rutgers last week, Nebraska fumbled four more times to rank them 111th in the country to this point. The Cornhuskers don’t have anything close to a signature win and they close out the final four games of the year against unranked opposition. Nebraska is a fraudulent 7-1 and in no way deserve to be in this range against the Boilermakers.
Every player on every team in every sport knows the point-spread. It’s a common discussion in the locker room all week because it’s a measure of how a team is expected to perform. This line is a blatant insult to every player and coach in that Boilermakers locker room and they will use it as extra motivation. The Boilermakers have played a tougher schedule than Nebraska. Among the teams they have played are Michigan State, Notre Dame, Iowa and Minnesota. Over the past three weeks, Purdue has put up 38, 31 and 38 points respectively against Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota. They rank 51st in the country in rushing yards per game and their passing game is coming on as well. The Boilermakers aren’t great. They are a middling at best Big-10 team but they have found their offense and they are in no way 23½ points worse than the Cornhuskers. Huge overlay.
NAVY +14½ over Notre Dame
Great spot here for the Midshipmen, as they catch the Irish coming off their first loss of the season, a devastating one against #2 Florida State, 31-27. The Irish have some pretty sweet overall numbers but aside from that loss against the over-ranked Seminoles, Notre Dame’s schedule leaves plenty to be desired. In other words, its numbers are somewhat skewed. The Irish have played Rice, Michigan, Purdue, Syracuse, Stanford, North Carolina and FSU. When they played Stanford and won 17-14, the Irish scored a TD on a 4th and 11 from the Cardinal 23 yard line late in the fourth to dodge another bullet. When Notre Dame defeated a bad Syracuse team 31-15, they turned the ball over four times. Notre Dame has beaten up on weaklings and has had nothing but trouble against the two quality squads that they’ve faced this year. It’s also worth noting that although this is a rivalry game, it’s still sandwiched between Florida State and #14 Arizona State next week. There’s another angle that comes into play here as well. After Week 6, road and neutral site favorites after their first loss in the regular season are 1-12 ATS. The theory is that a loss halts the bid for an unblemished season and it’s difficult to bounce back from. That too, applies to the Irish here.
Navy has thrown just 41 passes all season and that comes as no surprise as this team is built to run the option attack. They’re averaging an eye-opening 352 yards on the ground per game and that bodes well when taking back significant weight. Junior quarterback Keenan Reynolds has a team-high 639 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Noah Copeland isn't far behind with 602 yards on the ground and overall, Navy has scored 27 touchdowns on the ground. Naturally, the Irish will prepare for the run but it’s not going to matter because Navy cannot be stopped by this Irish defense. The Midshipmen went into South Bend last year and lost by 4 as a 16½-point pooch after running for 331 yards. The last three times that they have ran for over 300 yards against the Irish (3 times in the last 5 years), they have won twice and lost by four the other time. In other words, a cover here by Navy hinges on them running for close to 300 yards or more and this is Navy’s best option attack ever. Take the points.
North Carolina +15 over MIAMI
The Tar Heels won their first two games of the year against Liberty and San Diego State. Big deal. They subsequently went on to lose their next four, which included giving up 70 points to East Carolina, 50 to Notre Dame and 50 to Clemson. That’s 170 points allowed over three games, which subsequently causes the books to offer an inflated number. Last season the Tar Heels suffered a similar fate when they got off to a 1-5 start before closing out the year 6-1. North Carolina is on that same path, as they have now won two straight, which included a win over Virginia last week. The Tar Heels are now 13-3 straight up in the second half over the past three years and their offense is beginning to roll once again.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes were whacked by Louisville in their season opener. They also lost to Nebraska by 10 points and to Georgia Tech by 11. That’s the same Tech team that North Carolina just defeated by five points. The dog in this series has covered eight of the past 10 meetings while winning straight up in five of those games. The kicker here is that Miami has a huge game on deck next week against #2 Florida State and it’s a home game for the ‘Canes. These two traditionally play extremely close games that almost always come right down to the wire and in this favorable scheduling spot for the dog, we’re suggesting another close one here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg -½ +230 over N.Y. RANGERS
Regulation only. Not being a supporter of the ridiculous shoot-out, we’re focusing more on regulation time wins as oppose to including OT in our wager. Indeed we’re going to lose some games that we otherwise would’ve won but the bigger take-back will make up for it in the long run. Another option is to split it up and play half your bet including OT and the other half in regulation only.
In terms of value, this one might be the best on the board today. The Rangers are overvalued for a number of reasons. First, they went to the Cup Finals last year. Secondly, they have won four of its past five starts and lastly, they have what is considered to be one of the best goaltenders in the league in Henrik Lundqvist. We’ll address all of those. New York got hot at the right time last year and played with true grit to propel that improbable run. They were also fortunate in the first two rounds, as both rounds against Philly and Pittsburgh went the full seven games and they won both seventh games by identical 2-1 scores. When they faced and defeated the Habs in the third round, Carey Price was injured in the first game, which took a lot of the steam out of the Habs. In the Cup Final, the Rangers were blasted by the Kings. The stars aligned just right for New York last year. In winning four of their past five games, the Rangers defeated winless Carolina 2-1 in OT. Against the Devils, they won in OT again after scoring twice in the final 10 minutes to tie it. When they defeated the Sharks 4-0, they were outshot 33-29 and faced a San Jose team playing its fourth road in six nights. When they defeated the Wild in their last game, the Rangers were being outshot 23-5 at one point and were being completely dominated the entire game before a bizarre rally in the third in which Darcy Kuemper allowed five goals on eight shots. As for Lundqvist, we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, he’s way past his prime and he’s not one of the NHL’s premier goaltenders anymore. In fact, he’s one of the NHL’s worst goaltenders. There are 41 goaltenders in the NHL that have played four games or more this season. Lundqvist has played eight and his save % of .891 ranks him 36th out of those 41 and his GAA of 3.25 ranks him 35th out of those 41. Dude is regressing badly and has been doing so for two years running. He’s older, slower and his style of playing deep in the crease is fine when you’re reflexes are at their peak but that’s no longer the case for Lundqvist. Lundqvist is no longer an asset, he’s a liability.
The Jets are high on our radar as one of the most undervalued teams in the league. They are completely loaded with talent throughout the lineup and they also have one of the best puck moving defensive groups in the NHL. Analytics love this team too. Winnipeg ranks fourth in shots against per game behind Minnesota, St. Louis and Washington. The Jets also rank 4th in shots differential per game behind Minnesota, Chicago and St. Louis. In terms of time of possession in the offensive end on 5 on 5 hockey, once again the Jets rank among the league leaders, sitting fifth behind Minnesota, Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville. It’s no coincidence that all those other aforementioned teams with outstanding analytics are elite. Winnipeg’s 9 points ranks them above three teams in the entire league, Arizona, Carolina and Buffalo. Putting them on the same level with that trio is ludicrous. The Jets have been nothing but unlucky but it’ll even out sooner rather than later. You can’t play this well and keep losing games. As long as these prices are being offered on this grossly undervalued squad, we’ll be all over them and certainly make no exception here.
Chicago -½ +104 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The Maple Leafs have won two in a row. They defeated Buffalo, a team that would have trouble making the playoffs in the minors and they defeated the Jackets last night. Columbus was without nine regulars and they outshot the Maple Leafs 29-27. The Maple Leafs are not improved. They have one win this season against teams over .500 and five losses against teams over .500. In 10 games, Toronto has outshot the opposition twice and one of those occurred against the Sabres. The Leafs rank 24th in time of possession in the opposition’s end but before they played Buffalo and spent the entire game in the Sabres end, they ranked 28th. Toronto will win games because they can score and they have outstanding goaltending when Jonathan Bernier is in net but against the elite teams in this league, they have less than a 20% chance of winning and that applies here. Incidentally, Bernier started last night in Columbus (?) so if Randy Carlyle planned on using both goaltenders, Reimer will start tonight although that is not confirmed. If that’s the plan, using Bernier last night is very curious indeed.
Chicago gets Cory Crawford back for this game, which is a morale boost for the entire team, not that they need it. The Blackhawks have played just two games in Toronto since 2008 and one since 2011. They have eight Canadians on the team, not including Patrick Kane, who is from nearby Buffalo, so playing in Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada’s featured game is a big deal. Don’t think for a second that the Blackhawks have forgotten their trip in here last season when they were buried by the Maple Leafs, 7-3, also on a Saturday Night on Hockey Night in Canada. Chicago doesn’t have a lot to prove but redemption for last year is on their list. We all know the Blackhawks are elite and we all know they’re a serious contender again this season. The entire league knows it too. To come in here for a second straight year and lose to this inferior group is not an option. When Chicago bears down and plays the way they’re capable of, they are deadly. Among Chicago’s games this season, they outshot Nashville, 37-20, Calgary 50-18, Philadelphia 43-30, Ottawa 45-33, Anaheim 38-25 and Buffalo 47-23. The Maple Leafs are their next victims.
Arizona/CAROLINA Over 5½
When we think of Arizona and Carolina, offense doesn’t exactly come screaming out, which gives us an opportunity to take back some juice in a game that should have extra juice attached to the over, not the under. The Hurricanes are winless and have allowed four goals or more in six of their eight games. They have also allowed 15 goals against over their past three games. The Coyotes have played some defensive teams recently that include St. Louis, Nashville, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Florida so it should come as no surprise that they scored just 10 times over those five games. In terms of scoring goals, things get much easier for the ‘Yotes here and in terms of defending, there is no defense for weak goaltending. Weak goaltending also applies to Carolina here.
Quickly now, guess which two goaltenders rank last and second last in the NHL? If you said Jonas Enroth, Ben Scrivens, Steve Mason, Jaroslav Halak or Cory Schneider you would be wrong. If you said Cam Ward and Mike Smith you would be dead on correct. Ward is dead last with a save % of .840 so it should come as no surprise that the ‘Canes are winless. This broken down goalie is getting paid millions so the Hurricanes are going to use him no matter what. They ain’t paying dude 6.3M per to sit on the bench so unless he breaks his leg in two places the Hurricanes are going to play him. Mike Smith is in the same boat. Smith is being paid 5.6M per year and for that the Coyotes are getting a save % of .866, which ranks second last in the NHL among qualified goaltenders. Like Carolina with Ward, Arizona is not going to pay Smith 5.6M per year to sit on the bench. If these guys were earning a quarter of their current salary, they would both be backups and/or probably released. Smith has a GAA of 3.96 and Ward has a GAA of 3.95. Our play here is based on two broken down goaltenders going to head-to-head to see which one can stink up the joint more.
Pass CFL
Vegas Lock Club
Kansas vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -35
The last time Baylor played at its new home stadium on the banks of the Brazos River, it rallied from 3 TDs down to beat TCU 61-58. Baylor was right there in the national title hunt before their loss to West Virginia. They're not necessarily out of it, but it's time to impressive the playoff panel and off a bye with Kansas in town, it's time to get back on track and give the scoreboard operator another meltdown. The Bears average 49 points a game, second to only TCU in the country. They've averaged 60 points in their last 10 home games. The Jayhawks have the third worst scoring offense among 125 Division 1-A schools with a per game average of 16.6. In five games against Power 5 conference schools this season that number drops to 11.6. Baylor is 4-0 during Art Briles' reign in the series, scoring a total of 176 points in those four outings, winning them by a combined 111 points. The Jayhawks don't have the speed, athleticism or talent on defense to keep this one close. They certainly don't have the offensive firepower to take advantage of Baylor's defensive deficiencies. For example, KU lost 34-21 at T-Tech two Saturdays ago. That same T-Tech team gave up 82 to TCU last weekend, 49 to Arkansas and 45 to K-State and Ok State. Yet the J-Hawks managed just 21. Baylor is on a 19-3 ATS roll in Waco.
Don Best Consensus
Tennessee at South Carolina
Pick: Over
USC has played their SEC games 4-1 'over this season. We like the USC offense and old ball coach's squad is putting 35.1ppg. Joshua Dobbs is expected to start for the Vols. He brings a dual threat that former starter Justin Worley didn't have and will only get better as a passer. The road team is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings and we like Tennessee to compete in this one, making 8TDs a likely result.
Bruce Marshall
Utah State at Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii
Norm Chow's job status getting to the point it might get mentioned on an episode of the new Hawaii Five-0. But Warriors (5-1 vs. line last 6 in Honolulu) have had a look at every game thus far, and USU's 3rd-string QB Harrison now hurting, so Utags down to 4th stringer tonight, and unlikely to keep plays alive, as did Nevada's Fajardo last week vs. UH. Note that Chow's first-year d.c. Kevin Clune was imported from Utag staff.
Larry Ness
Notre Dame at Navy
Pick: Notre Dame
Paul Johnson arrived at the Naval Academy in 2002, inheriting an 0-10 team. He went just 2-10 in his first season but did beat Army. Johnson left for the ‘greener pastures’ of Ga Tech after the 2007 season, leaving the program in the capable hands of Ken Niumatalolo. Navy has gone ‘bowling’ EVERY season since 2003, except when the Middies stumbled to a 5-7 record in 2011. Notre Dame and Navy have met EVERY season since 1927 (that qualifies as a rivalry) but during that time, Navy once lost to Notre Dame an NCAA-record 43 consecutive times!
However, beginning in 2003 (Johnson’s second season), Navy is 6-5 ATS vs Notre Dame and more importantly, Navy has beaten Notre Dame THREE times in the past seven seasons! Navy also has a way of tripping up Notre Dame for more than one game, as FIVE other times since 2007, Notre Dame has lost the game it played after facing the Midshipmen, including two big upsets: a 24-23 loss to a two-win Syracuse team that had fired its coach days earlier, and a 28-27 loss to Tulsa in 2010. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said he couldn't explain why playing Navy might have a hangover affect and that he really hadn't looked at it.
"Maybe I should," he said. "I don't know why there would be, to be quite honest with you. There shouldn't be. Navy is a very good opponent, but there shouldn't be any carry over. We should be able to play consistently the next week." After Navy, the sixth-ranked Irish face No. 15 Arizona State in a game that could give Notre Dame another chance to impress the playoff selection committee. However, the biggest concern for now is finding a way to stop Navy's triple-option, which leads the nation at 352.3 YPG on the ground.
Navy rode a 24-point second quarter to a 41-31 win over San Jose State last Saturday, as QB Keenan Reynolds had a career-high 251 rushing yards and scored three TDs. Notre Dame limited Reynolds to 53 yards on 22 carries in last season's win but Navy rushed for 331 yards as a team with Reynolds scoring three rushing TDs and throwing for a fourth. Notre Dame held on for a 38-34 win last year, after Navy was stopped for no gain on fourth-and-4 from the Notre Dame 31 with 68 seconds left.
Notre Dame has had two weeks to get over its narrow defeat at Florida State and while the Irish have more high profile opponents still to come (ASU, Louisville and USC), there is NO way Kelly will overlook Navy in this spot. The Midshipmen have been out-scored 79-47 in second halves and have habitually had a tendency to wear down against bigger teams (that’s what happened in Navy’s season-opener vs Ohio St). The Navy defense has recorded only three sacks on the season, with two coming against VMI, an FCS team that currently sits 1-7. Joe Gray, the young San Jose quarterback took advantage of this weakness, completing 33 of 46 passes for 346 yards. I see Notre Dame QB Everett Golson being even more effective.
A controversial pass interference call negated an apparent game-winning TD vs the Seminoles, a game which gave Golson his LONE loss as a starting QB in the regular season. He’s 18-1 as Notre Dame’s starting QB, Notre Dame likely wins handily in this one at FedEx Field.
Dave Price
Detroit Pistons -3
A 0-2 start isn't sitting well with a Pistons team that entered the season with some expectations after underachieving last season. I expect this team to show us a glimpse of what it is capable of tonight in its home opener. The Pistons took three of four from the Nets last season, winning both at home by four and 16 points. Stan Van Gundy is a terrific coach, and his backers have been rewarded, especially at home where his teams are 185-144 ATS all-time. His squads are also an impressive 257-210 ATS all-time when laying points. The Pistons will get a boost from Greg Monroe, who is expected to make his season debut tonight. Lay the points.
Tony Bucca
Old Dominion/Vanderbilt Over 60
This game should scream right over the posted line of 60. OD's defense is shoddy to put it nicely and will give Vandy the opportunity to put up some points. All the while OD's offense is humming along all season, and I love their QB, putting up big points. Over should be no problem.
Nick Parsons
Illinois vs. Ohio State
Play: Illinois +28½
The 13th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes go for their sixth consecutive victory when they play the Illinois Fighting Illini in Big Ten Conference action on Saturday night.
Illinois picked up its first conference win and pulled even on the season at 4-4 after knocking off visiting Minnesota last week‚ 28-24. Ohio State blew a 17-point lead at Penn State last Saturday‚ but managed to pull out a 31-24 victory in double-overtime to keep alive its prospects of reaching the Big Ten title tilt. The triumph improved coach Urban Meyer's squad to 6-1 on the season‚ 3-0 in conference‚ and was its fifth straight since suffering a double-digit home loss to Virginia Tech back on Sept. 6
Ohio State leads the all-time series with Illinois‚ 65-30-4‚ and the Buckeyes have won the last five meetings‚ including a 60-35 verdict in Champaign last season.
Illinois is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten when it comes to offensive production scoring 28 points and accumulating 390 yards a game. Their passing offense however, ranks first. On the defensive side of the ball they are the leagues worst against the run allowing 258 yards a game.
For OSU, T.J. Barrett leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency (172.8)‚ as he has completed 65 percent of his passes for 1‚689 yards‚ 21 TDs and seven INTs. Ezekial Elliott ranks sixth in the conference in rushing with 91.4 yards a game. Michael Thomas leads the receiving corps with 380 yards and five TDs
Ohio State defense that is giving up 20.7 points and 308.1 yards per contest‚ both of which rank it in the top half of the conference statistical register.
Ohio State should win this game easily. They have a showdown next week with Michigan State so a letdown is possible. Barrett is not 100% so if the Buckeyes get a big lead you could see him rest for next week. I am taking the points with Illinois.
John Ryan
Wyoming at Fresno St.
Prediction: Wyoming
The simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. Although both teams enter this fray with identical overall records Fresno was installed as 10 point favorite and the public has been all over this game all week. The line now is 15 points and I would not be surprised if a flurry of mid-afternoon bets sends this line to as high as 17 points. I do believe sharps will come in to buy back their bets they made with FSU at 10 and 11 points given the favorable number of 17 should that happen. Point is to keep your eyes open and work the order for the best possible line. Although. I don't think we need the extra 'hook' or even point north of 15, but is always prudent to get the best line available and allow the betting flows to work in your favor. I expect that Fresno will gain between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards in this ga,e. Wyoming is a perfect 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 20-7 ATS since 1996 when they have allowed this range in past games. I also highly believe that Wyoming will score at least 28 points. In past games when achieving this scoring level, they are a nice money making 11-5 ATS L3 seasons and 73-29 ATS since 1996. Take the Wyoming Cowboys.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS STATE -12.5 over Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State is really a young team and its starting to show now that they are in the heart of their Big 12 schedule. In the last 2 games the Cowboys have put up just 19 points and have allowed 76 points. They are 3-2 in the big 12, but their 3 wins were vs Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech, which have a combined 1-12 mark in the Big 12. Now they will be playing a hot Kansas State squad that needs big impressive wins in their their hopes of getting into the 4 team playoff at the end of the year. The Cowboys can't score right now and KSU has allowed just 19.3 ppg on the year. I just don't see OSU coming in with enough points to keep this one close.
BEST OF THE REST
Utah State / Hawaii Under 42: This Utah State team is now down to their 4th string QB and their offense wan't all that great to begin with prior to the injuries. The Aggies did put up 34 points on a bad UNLV defense last week, but they will be taking on a tougher Hawaii defense plus Utah State has averaged just 17.3 ppg on the road this year. The Rainbow Warriors have had problems scoring all year, as they have averaged just 20.6 ppg and will be taking on the toughest defense they will have faced so far, in a Utah State defense that has allowed just 21.9 ppg on the year and are 4th in the nation vs the run, allowing just 88.9 ypg on the ground. The Under is 20-6 in Aggies last 26 games following a S.U. win and 5-1 in Hawaii's last 6 overall. Very hard to see many points in this one.
Anthony Michael
Auburn +1.5
Mississippi will be on a big downer here off of their first loss of the season last week to LSU. Look for Auburn to come out hard in this one since they know this game is huge for their playoff hopes. Auburn has been a monster in the stats this season and that is going to translate into on the field success here. The Tigers have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and they have covered 6 of their last 8 as conference underdogs of a TD or less.