John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IdahoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Idaho will lose this game by 39 or fewer points. This is just too many points and the line is inflated even more due to the suspension of QB Dominique Blackman. Moreover, they have an interim coach, who is a great teacher of the game of football. He has been getting his players more focused and giving attention to the smallest detail. Practices focused on finishing plays on both sides of the ball and that requires every player doing their job through the whistle. There had been a mountain of distractions impacting this team, but now they are more than two weeks out and a sense of normalcy is returning to this team. I am not saying at all that Idaho can compete against BYU for four quarters, but I am saying that I don?t think BYU can score 40 points on this unit. So, that makes this line all the more attractive because we have a play where our team only needs to score a TD to really put the spread in the winner?s bracket. BYU has no need to squash or embarrass this team. The coaches know that they have been through the gantlet and rubbing their faces in it will serve no purpose whatsoever. BYU is coming off the BYE week and had a multitude of injuries to key players. The last thing they want to have happen is for any key player to get hurt in a 35-10 game in the fourth quarter. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 83-40 for 68% winners since 2006. Play on a road team after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games and now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Take the Vandals.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Hoosiers +7.5
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The Hoosiers have won their last two games and have covered the spread in each of their last five. One of these covers was a four-point loss to Michigan State, who defeated Wisconsin by three points. Another one of these covers was a three-point loss to undefeated Ohio State. The Ohio State games shows that the Hoosiers are capable of playing with anyone in the Big Ten.
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The Badgers have struggled away from home this season where they are 1-2. Dating back to last season, they are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games. It is also worth noting that Wisconsin is on a 0-6 against the spread slide in road games in the second half of the season.
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This is clearly a game the Hoosiers will be pumped up for as they look to snap a lengthy losing streak in the series. The Badgers have walked all over the Hoosiers the last two years, but both of those games were in Madison. The Badgers only won by three points in their last trip to Indiana. The home team has covered the number in four of the last five meetings.
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The Indiana offense is playing with a ton of confidence. It ranks 35th in the nation in total offense with 445.6 yards per game and 43rd in scoring with 33.1 points per game. Wisconsin, on the other hand, ranks 92nd in total offense with 361.2 yards per game and 82nd in scoring with 25.9 points per game. I don't believe the Badgers will have enough offense to cover the number in this year's matchup. Take the points.
Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Longhorns -10
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Texas is clearly the more talented team, and it hasn't forgotten about the loss it suffered the last time Iowa State visited Austin in 2010. The Longhorns won last season's meeting 37-14 at Iowa State, and I expect them to roll again here. Texas is the far more explosive offensive team, and it should be able to move the football at will on an Iowa State defense that is minus its best player - Jake Knott. The Cyclones haven't been able to defend the pass to save their lives in recent weeks as they've given up over 400 yards passing in each of their last three games. Their pass defense figures to do them in again as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per pass. The Cyclones have lost to these teams by an average of 24.9 points. Take Texas.
Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy vs. Troy
Play: NavyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's tough to defend the Navy (6-3) option attack and prepare for it. The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 40-18 ATS in their last 58 road games. Troy (4-5) has dropped 2 in a row and has no defense allowing 30 ppg. The last two they've allowed 34 and 55 and the Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. After getting bombed by an SEC school last week (at Tennessee) the Trojans are banged up and will have trouble preparing for speedy Navy. Play Navy.
Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa Hawkeyes -4.5
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Iowa is 4-5 with three games to play. Two of those games are against Michigan and Nebraska, and its extremely unlikely that it will be able to win both of those. In other words, it understands the importance of getting this one against a struggling Purdue team. It knows if it doesn't win this one it can kiss its bowl hopes goodbye. Purdue has lost 5 in a row by an average of 11.0 points and is just 1-4 ATS in these games. Iowa has won each of the last two meetings, and four of the last five, by at least five points. It has also won six straight at home against the Boilermakers by an average of 11.2 points. Under coach Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are an outstanding 10-2 ATS at home when valued as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. It has won these games by an average of 16.5 points. Bet Iowa.
Larry Ness
UNLV vs. Colorado State
Pick: Colorado State
UNLV (2-8) visits Fort Collins on Saturday to take on 2-7 Colorado St. Bobby Hauck took over a UNLV football program in 2010 which had posted just ONE winning season in the previous 15 years (Rebels were 8-5 in 2000). If Hauck had any hopes that things would improve, they disappeared quickly as the Rebels went 2-11 and 2-10 in his first two seasons (make that ONE wining season in 17 years!). There seemed to be a tiny bit of ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ for the 2012 Rebels, but typically, they’ve given away chances for things to have been better. UNLV lost a heartbreaking triple-OT game in its season-opener to Minnesota, jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead the next week but lost 17-14 to Northern Arizona (the same team which lost the previous week 63-6 to ASU) and then played Washington State tough all the way in game No. 3 before falling, 35-27. I listen to Hauck on his weekly radio show every Wednesday and it was ‘painful’ to hear him talk about the team's missed opportunities but trying to emphasize that the team WAS on the right track. The Rebels won their fourth game of 2012 at home vs Air Force, 38-35. However, FIVE straight losses followed, before UNLV finally got its second win of 2012, 35-7 at home vs New Mexico last Saturday. Sonny Lubick led Colorado St for 15 years, earning NINE bowl appearances but was ‘shown the door’ after going 4-8 in 2006 and 3-9 in 2007. Not much has gone right since for the Rams, as Steve Fairchild took over and went 7-6 in his first season (including a bowl win) but followed with three consecutive 3-9 seasons. Jim McElwain is the new head coach (1st job) and while the Rams opened the season with a 22-17 win over Colorado in Denver, the Rams have beaten only 1-7 (0-5) Hawaii since, 42-27. Clearly, BOTH teams see this game as an opportunity for a win but with all CSU’s problems, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Rebels entered this season on a run of 16 consecutive road failures, allowing a whopping 44.9 PPG. UNLV is again 0-4 on the road this year (while allowing 37.3 PPG), extending that road slide to 20 in a row. UNLV will win one on the road, eventually, but I’ll let someone else chose the right time.
Bruce Marshall
Wyoming vs. New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico
We have to drill pretty deep to find some good reasons to go with New Mexico. But, well beneath the surface, arguments exist, even if Bob Davie's land-locked Lobo option is down to only one capable pilot (frosh QBCole Gautsche). One key angle in UNM's favor is the fact that Wyo's soft and undersized front seven (ranks 100th In rush defense) might be the proper elixir for Lobos to rev up their read-option looks and reignite their dwindling bowl hopes. And Cowboys usually offer their best value getting points on road...not in games near pick'em. Lots of distractions these days in Laramie, too (HC Dave Christensen returns to sideline after one-week suspension), MW sources report much better vibes around Lobo program these days. Moreover, last week's win over distraught CSU no "buy" on recently-stumbling Cowboys (only 2-7 SU).
Scott Spreitzer
Oregon St. at Stanford
Prediction: Oregon St.
OSU HC Mike Riley switched back to Cody Vaz at QB mid-stream last week and it allowed his team to come from behind and defeat Arizona State in what was a very tough situation for the Beavers, coming off their first loss of the season. With Vaz back behind center I expect the Beavers' offense to give the Stanford defense more than they can handle. Defensively, whether the Beavers face an offense led by Josh Nunes or Kevin Hogan, the bottom line is that the Cardinal simply don't stretch defenses enough to keep them honest. Stanford throws too many passes to their TE's and RB's and not enough to their wideouts. OSU's defense (5th against the run) will be able to keep things in front of them and will slow down the Cardinal offense. Oregon State is on an 18-7-1 ATS run on the road and they're on a 6-0-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. More of the same. I'm taking the points with Oregon State.
Kyle Hunter
Penn State vs. Nebraska
Play: Penn State
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been much better than almost everyone expected this year. Nebraska has a nice record, but I haven't been overly impressed by the Cornhuskers this year. They were beaten at UCLA and trounced by Ohio State in Columbus. Penn State already went on the road and dominated Iowa. Penn State has the better defense and we are getting more than a touchdown. I like the dog in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Air Force vs. San Diego State
Play: Air Force
In this game we want to fade a San Diego St. That is off a Huge road dog win at Boise St last week as a 16 point dog. That win sets the Aztecs up in a play Against system for Conference home favorites the following week if they won at +10 or more on the conference road and are laying 3 or more to a winning team.. The Aztecs are 12-26 ats off 2+ wins and may be flat for an Air Force team they beat last year. Air Force has covered 7 of the last 8 as a road dog from +7.5 to +10 and has won 6 of the last 8 November games. The Flyboys will look to bounce back off a road favored loss at Army last week. Look for Air force to hang in here and get the cover with their solid ground game.
Dave Cokin
Arizona State at USC
Pick: Arizona State
Horrible spot for USC. Mostly meaningless game on the heels of one where the Trojans let it all hang out going for the upset vs. Oregon. I'm not sure there's much left in the tank and that makes Arizona State plus the points a live option.
Johnny Detroit
North Carolina -7.5
We love North Carolina in this spot. Georgia Tech smashed Maryland 33-13, but did all their damage on the ground with 370 yards rushing. Also, GT will need to win two of their final three games to make a bowl and we are sure the TV folks will make sure everyone is aware of this. So there is a blowout win with close to 400 yards on the ground and the need to win 2 of 3 to make a bowl. North Carolina is coming off a bye following the amazing win AND cover vs. NC State. The game was a shoot-out as the two teams combined for over 1100 yards of offense. With Tech running all over North Carolina last season and Maryland last week, the Tar Heels being on a bye has given them extra time to prep the run defense. Even before the extra preparation, North Carolina sits at #19 in the nation on stopping the run and only gives up 111 yards per game. The Maryland box score + hype to make bowl + North Carolina run defense + North Carolina added week to prep = value with North Carolina. Our math has this number at -10 and will gladly lay the -7.5 for a 1* selection.
Joe Gavazzi
North Carolina -7.5
We have some nice hidden value in this one, despite the fact that each of these teams is 5-4 ATS, and this line is a TD higher than opening week. For it has been a disastrous run for Tech who finished last year on a 1-6 ATS slide, and is currently on a 2-4 SUATS run. Those victories have been against only BC, who is suffering the worst season in recent memory at 2-7 SUATS, and a Maryland team last week who is using their 6th string QB. Their previous three games against quality foes were losses of 24 to BYU, 16 to Clemson, and 23 to Midd Tenn. In those games, they allowed 46 PPG on defense. Now they must travel to North Carolina to face a rested Carolina team who has gone a perfect 5-0 SUATS on this field. Do not discount the last of those victories, a 43-35 ½ point cover against rival NC St when HC Fedora, leading by 6, went for a 2 point conversion to cover the spread! Tarheels have the rush defense at 111/3.0 to slow the Tech option, and two weeks to prepare for it. HC Fedora, one of the greatest proponents of the 200 club, has his Tarheels averaging a balanced 488 yards for 39 PPG behind QB Renner and RB Bernard. Option attacks are not quite as effective when trailing by three TDs.
Andy Iskoe
Navy -2
Navy looked horrible when it opened the season in Ireland, losing 50-10 to Notre Dame. They lost 2 of the next 3 games to stand 1-3 heading into its annual game with Air Force. Navy upset the Force on the road and has not lost since, reeling of 5 wins in a row, including 2 more on the road at East Carolina and Central Michigan. Troy was expected to be improved this season but is no better than the fourth best team in Conference USA. The Trojans are off of a tough 55-48 loss at SEC Tennessee in which they held a second half lead. They've lost 3 of 4 and have 3 home losses already this season. They close out their home season next week against conference foe Arkansas State. Navy again has a solid ground game that matches up well against Troy's defense while Navy defends the pass well which is the strength of the Troy offense. Navy has shown it can win on the road and is in great form. Troy is not.
Scott Delaney
31-15-1 comp play run heading into today's play on TCU (+7) at home against Kansas State.
I'm not sure how long it's going to take the oddsmakers to give the Horned Frogs some respect, but once again they've made the mistake of making them too big an underdog - this time against Kansas State - and I'll take full advantage of their error in judgement.
I know much of the talk this week has been about Kansas State's Collin Klein, the Heisman front-runner who was knocked out of last Saturday's game against Oklahoma State with an apparent concussion, but whether he plays or not isn't swaying my decision. Not when TCU ranks 13th nationally in rushing defense (3.1 ypc yield).
No, what matters to me when it comes to the Horned Frogs is coach Gary Patterson. The guy is a genius, I don't care what anyone says. He's prepared his teams for bigger games in the past, and will have to prepare for bigger ones down the road. He's seen it all. There isn't another coach I'd rather have, to be quite honest, with what TCU has left on its plate. After today, there is Texas on Thanksgiving and then Oklahoma on Dec. 1. And if there are big numbers there, I'll be all over these Frogs again.
I don't know how much Kansas State will be taking the Frogs seriously. The Wildcats have TCU today and then are at Baylor next week before closing the season against Texas, and it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they're looking past both games and onto the Longhorns.
This is TCU's time of the year, as it's on a 15-6 ATS run in the month of November, and Patterson will have his troops ready for this game.
2♦ TCU